Is the Russian Air Force incapable of complex air operations? That is the question being asked by Justin Bronk, Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology in the Military Sciences team at RUSI.

Bronk points out that more than a week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has yet to commence large-scale operations.

“Inactivity in the first few days could be ascribed to various factors, but the continued absence of major air operations now raises serious capability questions.”

A possible reason Bronk argues is that while the early Russian failure to establish air superiority could be explained by lack of early warning, coordination capacity and sufficient planning time, the continued pattern of activity suggests a more significant conclusion:

“That the VKS lacks the institutional capacity to plan, brief and fly complex air operations at scale. There is significant circumstantial evidence to support this, admittedly tentative, explanation.”

You can read more from Justin Bronk here, I recommend you do so as it’s a very informative article.

The British Ministry of Defence has advised that Russia is now attempting to limit their losses by flying at night.

Russia fails to gain air superiority over Ukraine

You can read more on this here.

Tom Dunlop
Tom Dunlop
Tom has spent the last 13 years working in the defence industry, specifically military and commercial shipbuilding. His work has taken him around Europe and the Far East, he is currently based in Scotland.

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301 COMMENTS

  1. Interesting article…. Makes you wonder just how big is the quality/training gap between a western and Russian pilot.

    • It would go a long way to explaining how they can afford such an apparently powerful military with a relatively weak economy.

      A pretty large chunk of Western budgets is training, if the Russians are skipping that it would save large chunk of cash.

      • Just look at much of European NATO, lots of manpower even vehicles and little capability to deploy even in own country. Look how bad things are for Germany especially now try and imagine that spread across a force as large as the Russians with a leader who does not accept bad news and wants to spend money on building Death Stars. Those European NATO members get to train with the best and get advised as well. No one to advise the Russians and the Chinese are even worse.

    • I remember reading somewhere that Russian pilots can get as little as 100 flight hours a year. Not only that but Russia has a far more limited capacity for complex training scenarios, and they have nothing that comes close to the large scale air training exercises like Red Flag.

    • In many ways this sounds no different than the intel we received in the ’80s about the Soviet Union. I think your points are valid, and I would add that there may literally be schisms within the Russian government and military allowing some Generals to simply slow-walk their engagement in the war, or even flat out veto Putin’s orders.

  2. Often the simple answer is less complex. Maybe the pilots don’t want to fly against Ukrain! Think about it, Russia, like every other nation does not have a super abundance of pilots and therefore is not in a position to ignore them.

    • Possibly.

      I’m assuming we have messed up GLONASS for them and probably a few other critical systems just output garbage.

      With that sort of thing going on the newer generation planes probably can’t be used.

      So all they are left with is the old stuff.

      Defensive aids don’t appear to work well or at all.

      So neither the pilots will be enthusiastic nor the Russian Air Force to loose even more jets.

      I do also think corruption plays here as some upgrades that should have been done haven’t been done and spares/maintenance/training money will have been trousered.

      So whilst neither individual factor stops things, taken together it massively erodes their ability to fight.

      Then you look at the tech problem in that they don’t really have masses of even LGB abs are dumb bombing. If they were using smart they could fly at high altitude out of range of Stinger: they can’t as they have to fly visual WWII style. So very vulnerable.

      Night flying doesn’t help as we are probably sharing vectors with the Ukrainians so they can set up Stinger traps. Stingers, older versions that we know the Russians captured in Afghanistan, isn’t so good to gain lock at night but once locked is just as good. So we can conclude that the Russians clearly understand that limitation from their actions but it is only a very slight mitigation.

      • Flying out of the range of MANPADs can be no protection either. There are many Buk and Tor systems, which are deadly, operating on the hide/fire/scoot/hide repeat principle that are very difficult to counter. A lesson we all hope that NATO is learning.

          • That reminds me of the Russian navy’s failure to rescue the surviving crew members of the Kursk. They’d not maintained the rescue submersible with the result it couldn’t get a seal on the Kursk.

          • 2015 Syria, kill civvies, carpet bomb and not fight a peer organisation. Ukraine isnt even peer and yet your Russkie blokes are getting wasted every day.

          • presumably the planes that reached Syria were those that could actually fly and a bit different with clear blue skies and laser designation from higher altitude against Toyota pick up trucks and 50cal. Good luck John. One missile hits a polish airbase and the Russian air force is gone.

        • I do mn’t think we will worry too much about BUK or TOR given the way the rest of the Russian kit has worked Johnski.

          BUK is so massive you could track it from the moon.

          No we won’t worry about the Russian carpski technology – let’s be honest if the Russians were so stupid as to switch a BUK on and point it at a NATO plane they would rapidly discover what fast and accurate missiles look like.

          Let’s be honest a BUK radar is just a good aiming point.

          • Thanks Bloke. However, I don’t think the Russians consider they need their air force for this. They have brought up artillery to within range and will now pound the cities into submission.

          • Afternoon, Barry just read your post on how The Ruskies and their use of Artillery the Ukrainians reply is that they SF will terminate any member of Artillery units that they come across for their indiscriminate shelling of Civilians , Putin will probably Cry Warcrimes I say if your Appliance gives you a shock Pull the Plug,,So tòo Speak

          • Good afternoon Tommo. It’s right bl**dy mess, isn’t it? Having to watch people with children dodging mortars in their own backyards and so on. I just hope people don’t forget but I place no credence at all in so-called international opinion. It’s worthless.

          • That’s the problem with war it’s not the fighting man that suffers the most and unfortunately this won’t be the last as plato stated 2000 yrs ago ” Only the Dead have seen the end of war” it would seem that still rings true in this case its again Civilians taking it the most as they are the easiest targets they don’t fire back Barry

          • I will take exception to your statement, “it’s not the fighting man that suffers.” Have you ever been “a fighting man?”

          • And what I meant in the above post was that the Fighting man (Soldiers) are trained in combat ,Civilians on the other hand have no concept of it Soldiers suffer but later when it’s over and mental health sets in I do know I took part in Corporate

          • I just crossed Ukraine from Dnipro and the Russians are losing ground in most Oblasts. Only Kherson has been taken and they lost a second general yesterday. The artillery has to get so close as to be at risk of attack by ground forces which have been decimating the Russians. 60k expats have joined the ranks of the Ukrainian military and 12k more stingers are enroute. Russia is already backtracking on their demands of demilitarization to try and save face. 95 percent of their initial invasion force is in the country and they have lost thousands of soldiers and their mechanized equipment. This war will be known as Putin’s folly and hopefully will lead to him being ousted.

          • Many thanks Rory. My fear is Putin will go after large population centres – this has begun but could be much worse. The Ukrainians have enormous spirit but they have to fight within their own kith and kin dying around them. I know Finland (northern wastes) and Finnmark, Norway, quite well. Seeing how badly this Russian assault is proceeding the Finns in particular would take care of themselves well enough. If we can’t put main strength forces into Ukraine then I hope some major physical demonstration of will power by all countries bounding Russia comes about very soon.

          • That’s not the point I was trying to make. NATO needs lots of systems like the Buk/Tor etc to defend itself, systems it has very few of as it seems to think all its needs is wizz bang fighters, not mucky things on the ground.

          • Oh you mean system like Patriot, THAAD & Sky Sabre?

            I’m sorry I forgot the names of the equivalent French and Italian systems.

            We do have this system called Sylver/Astor that is rather good too.

            But don’t worry Johnski out Typhoons are very good at A2A warfare and NATO has a lot of those that actually fly and things. Then we have F35 in increasing numbers. There is all the US kit like F16 and F18 that is more than pretty good.

            But you know all that sat in Milton Jeynesski?

            Do you get a dustpan and brush free when you go to the bank to collect your rubbles?

          • It’s MK as in Magnitogorsk, an industrial city in Chelyabinsk Oblast, Russia, located on the eastern side of the extreme southern extent of the Ural Mountains by the Ural River. 

            Mind you Milton Keynes is terrifying!

          • It is if you don’t enjoy the traffic light Grand Prix. I have an Audi S3 which is normally pretty much a winner but there is stiff competition from staff at Mercedes and VW Group (both have UK HQ down the road from me) on their car schemes not averse to hammering their new cars, so I avoid them.

          • Another thing, with the F-18s, they would never roll solo into contested airspace. They would roll with EA-18Gs and/or F-35Cs conducting electronic attack. Superhornet/Growler combo is very effective.

            Equipment isn’t as important as how you use it (as the Russians and their inability to control air assets).

          • A few wizz bang fighters would be enough to sort out the half trained flying fuckwits of the RuAF who get around 100 hrs per year flying a bucket of rust.

        • Buk and Tor systems do not seem to be even affective against cheap Turkey drones , I know your access to twitter is limited Ivan , but the gap between your comments and reality is growing wider and wider lol.

      • Just as we seen in sport ‘incremental improvements’ in lots of areas can have large results, so in the Russian military it seems we are seeing ‘incremental degradation’. Lots of failings in many areas accumulating to result in poor performance.

        • I like the reverse thinking of ‘marginal gains’.

          There is truth to that in marginal degradations are more than the sum.

          Which is why it is so important to train the boys and girls to get 100% out of the NATO kit.

          • It is when it’s only for two days while taking heavy losses you never expected and then running out of food and fuel, IvaninNKVD

          • Well you have to set that against then suiting in a row.

            On the bright side the Ukrainian have got plenty of static targets to try out their NLAW and JAVELIN tactics on for beginners.

            My one concern is skills fade: the Ukrainians haven’t had to try and hit moving target for over a week? What if they forget how do do it?

          • Why bother if it’s stuck, not going anywhere, and is not contributing to Russia’s offensive? At the moment it’s just wasting up resources; food and fuel for warmth.

            I imagine the artillery flattening the residential areas of Ukrainian cities are a higher priority target for them. I’m sure that will help them keep their skill sharps and the Russian mobile crematoria busy.

          • Its shite, but you will never say that as your controller is checking your required posts. The world is now seeing how crap your military really is, as bad as the 80s! Now trolly boy, any condemnation of tiny dick Putin?

  3. Could the capture of various Russian SAM systems also have had an impact? I’d read something somewhere concerning IFF compromised but did not really understand it.

    Their air force seems to be suffering unsustainable losses, even for Russia.

    • Hi Daniele,

      Definately and a good point.

      The article referred above suggests that the Russian Air Force is not well trained or experienced in large scale coordinated operations and it is a well argued conclusion.

      However, if the Russian pilots are so poorly trained as has been suggested I’m sure they’ll be well aware of their short comings, certainly they will by now, they are not idiots. In those circumstances knowing the Ukrainians may be able to ‘read’ their approach using IFF can’t be good for morale.

      I did write quite a long explanation of how I think the Ukrainians could use the IFF to their advantage based on my limited knowledge – and decided not to send it. Didn’t want to write something, no matter how basic, that might help the Russians. Remember the MoD telling the Argentinians they were not fusing their bombs properly!

      Suffice to say there are significant advantages that can be put to very good use, obviously.

      Cheers CR

      • Was that MoD? Thought it was some dafty Labour MP in the Commons.

        Whatever, I agree. I’ve seen there is a widespread policy if not highlighting UKR positions on Twitter and elsewhere. Quite rightly.

        • And in an opposite vein, highlighting all things Russian.
          Twitter footage showing varied civy trucks and coaches on railway flatbeds in Russia headed westward. Complete with white Z marks.

          Wonder whether they’re either in total shit state logistics wise or this is trying to avoid TB2 attacks by using civilian vehicles for supply movements, much like their use of ambulances for moving ammunition.

      • I thought it was the BBC that leaked the info about the bomb fuses, together with broadcasting the imminent attack on Goose Green.

          • Just because some berk in the MoD told them doesn’t absolve the BBC from responsibility for broadcasting it to the world.

          • My point. It was a joint enterprise. A fifteen year old could have pointed out that blunder.

      • “Remember the MoD telling the Argentinians they were not fusing their bombs properly!”

        I think it was the BBC that did that?

        Well done for self editing. We all need to be careful what we say.

        • OK SB, the BBC reported it, accepted.

          However, that information could only have come from the MoD press people, especially the attack on Goose Green. The fact that nothing has been said by the MoD or any British government at the time or since speaks volumes. If the BBC had leaked information then I cannot for one moment see why the MoD did not come down hard on the BBC – makes no sense.

          I would also reiterate a point I made on another post recently. The BBC World Service was funded by Foreign and Commonwealth Office in 1982 (the funding was transfered to the Leicence Fee in 2014/15, with additional government funding from 2020).

          The main point is that the BBC World Service has long been and still is used as a soft power tool by the UK government, so what information was being fed to the BBC as an organisation and to what end? We don’t know.

          The BBC does have a high degree of editorial independence even when working closely with the government. This means BBC editors will make the ultimate decisions on what gets broadcast. I except that without reservation as it gives ‘our’ info war an added level

          However, if part of their decision making is influenced by the need to get information out in a timely manner to influence opinion in neutral and allied countries it is likely that they would be very dependent on how they are briefed by the MoD. If they were expected to filter the information given to them by the MoD then the timeliness of the information and its impact on the info war would be compromised.

          As such the editors, being outside of the MoD planning and intelligence processes, will be totally reliant on the MoD for understanding what is and is not safe to report, especially if a key issue is winning the info war, which it most certainly was during the Falklands War.

          Given all of this I have long thought that the BBC was allowed to take the hit as a result of MoD letting slip information when they should not have – hence my original comment.

          I accept that some on here will not be happy with my reasoning, but I think it is important to note the difference between news sources and news broadcasters given we are currently deep into a very real and dangerous info war, well two in fact, COVID and the War in Ukraine.

          Sorry if this post isn’t the reply you were expecting.

          Cheers CR

      • Chariot rider ,close with that statement of the MOD informing the Argies, On the 24th May the BBCs Brian hanrahan told the Whole world about failure of long wind down arming instead of short wind down arming on the 25th His information was used and the Cov took it in the afternoon Hanrahan got a slapping by that evening in the wardroom Hermes

        • Yes, I don’t think it was MOD at all.

          The problem started and finished on Hermes and was then broadcast by the BBC.

        • Hi Tommo,

          Again who told Hanrahan? Who ever it was must have signed the Official Secrets Act so either they were authroised or broke the rules.

          The fact that no one was ‘dealt with’ on either the MoD / Services or the BBC suggests that there were serious issues on around the info war. Under sometimes contradictory pressures mistakes are made and my feeling is that Hanrahan was told something, that with hindsight, he should not have been given.

          Likewise, you can argue that he should not have published it, but as a journalist he was probably justified in thinking he could report it having been briefed. After all why else would you brief a journalist? Of course, we do not know who briefed him..!

          The fact is the info war has been and is an important part of modern warfare and mistakes will be made and they will have consequences, sadly.

          Basically, the fact that no one was taken to task post war and indeed that Hanrahan was allowed to stay in theatre strongly suggests to me systemic failures – i.e. b***s up.

          Cheers CR

          • Unfortunately Chatiotrider, from the 21st May in San Carlos, and shios around the sound at the entrance too SC waters were getting g hit no impact detonation, some went straight through Glasgow Antrim took one Frigates took em as well those that were embedded were dealt with by the Bomb teams of Pompey, and Plymouth Clearenc Divers ,One of them were filmed removing a 500lb by the embedded BBC teams they may of told them about the fusie hadn’t armed because of short flight time before impact meaning it had not enough springtime too arm maybe it was a case of Loose lips and the camera crew then told Hanrahan ,he’s gone now so may never know

      • No he doesn’t, they are a long way from that situation both in terms of hardware and pilots. As I understand it, Russians view death for their Motherland rather differently to UK military dying for the UK and have been dying regularly in large numbers for centuries. Whilst clearly tragedies at a personal level the families are now very well rewarded.

        • They’re not jihadis and they know they are not defending Russia. So far, their only competence has been in levelling civilian and residential areas. Just how are their families going to be rewarded ?? Extra potatoes?

          • A free virtual tour of Putins luxury yacht.
            A signed copy of ‘A History of Russia ‘ by Vladimir Putin.
            A scale model of Salisbury Cathedral (self build, some parts may be missing)
            A free t shirt with the letter Z on it.
            A free subscription to Russia Today TV.
            24 stone bag of potatoes.

          • Might be struggling to come up with all the bags of spuds they’re going to have to give out… 😏

          • Yee Gods, either the level of knowledge around here is poor or you’re taking the p. You can’t be that stupid not to realise that any rouble/$ or£ exchange rate is virtually irrelevant to the man in the street in Moscow, just as the £’s value doesn’t matter that much to us, apart perhaps for petrol.

            The families of Russian fallen get R1M + income +gratuity, which is much in line with AFPS here. To many recipients that is a life changing amount of money.

          • You’re partly righty, seriously taking the piss out of Putin’s tin-pot little empire.

            Wow a million roubles, I bet all the parents of young Russian conscripts are crossing their fingers their children come back in a urn so they can strike it rich…. (Or do they just throw away the ashes from Putin’s mobile crematorium trucks?)

            And you clearly don’t live in the U.K. if you don’t think the value of GBP matters, given its international value affects the cost of everything we buy that’s imported 🤦🏻‍♂️

          • He is now hilarious isn’t he, works hard in his troll attempts to get top troll and his name in the hat for the monthly best troll award of 5 litres of 2 stroke and an extra bucket of genuine Russian potato’s!

          • Top trolls get a scale model of the Kursk submarine, complete with bow section blown open and a few surviving sailors writing farewell letters to their families after realising that no one in the Russian navy gave a shit about them.

          • Yawn, you are becoming like a broken record. You need to up your game. Try making relevant comments on the points I make.

          • What black, round, 7 or 12” with a crack on it? Anyway you make no points just waffle Russkie propaganda. So here is the big question for all to see, you claim to be a 73 year old living in MK who’s father was in the RAF, fighter controller if memory serves. Ok, in that case, why won’t you condemn Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine, and condemn the actions of a badly trained military using dumb ordnance on civilian and none military targets? Just these two things for now will do, the rest you can try to justify to a larger audience.

          • Of course it does just as when its weak our exports are cheaper relatively but we still get the same £ which is what we are interested in. I mentioned petrol as it is one of the few things that we buy regularily that the value of the £ feeds directly into.

          • So you’re contradicting yourself now.
            If GBP is weak imports are more expensive but we get more value from foreign investments. So the value dies matter. 🤦🏻‍♂️

            Speak for yourself, I wouldn’t touch an ICE car, too low tech and polluting for my taste.

          • Russia’s main exports(oil etc), are priced in US$ and received in US$ according to the market price in
            $ at the time of sale.
            Not in local currency!

          • Ivan your knowledge seems come across as crazy pro Putin ramblings that really does not match reality and I know you fantasize about living in a free nation with a much much more higher living standard than Russia like the UK but you must come to terms with your bad situation in Russia and if things keep getting this bad you might be out of the Russian troll game for good or join the Russians fleeing to Finland I would keep your opinions to yourself there though buddy you might get lynched .

          • Like Airborne, you to are becoming like a broken record. You need to up your game. Try making relevant comments on the points I make for a start rather than spouting anti Russian propaganda.

          • The footage of Russian daily failure is so much and so consistent its hard to discount Ivan and what you fail to understand is that the world wide OSINT community keeping tabs on Russia every mess up it has overwhelmed you Russian trolls , burying your head in the sand and counter a argument with the usual BS just simply does not cut it any more.

          • Remember the chuff he was waffling a few weeks ago in regard to Putin not going to invade and the West and NATO are causing it? It’s all there to read isn’t it in his past posts! He has nothing relevant or real to contribute and he doesn’t seem to like being trolled, oh dear how sad never mind 😂

          • Yes mate but he has to earn his Russian troll bonus , half a cabbage and a scaled model of a LADA every 200 comments.

          • The more he replies to my (irritating) posts the more mistakes he makes. Trolls don’t like getting trolled, he gets angry with me, try’s to be reasonable with others. Trolls like this at more than likely operating number of accounts, and seeing the number of posts and replies if not a bot then maybe a few trolls operating the same accounts etc. So obvious this one is a troll account, do you think they read what they say and read back historic posts? So obviously a troll but maybe he can’t click on to the stuff he posts but more importantly the stuff he blatantly ignores!!!!! 👍

          • Yaaaaaawn……I can guarantee a Russkie conscript doesnt get the same as my pension and lump sum troll boy. But then again a percentage of fuck all, for a Russkie is pretty much fuck all x 1. Keep posting troll as you are hilarious and have now become the comedy commentator.

          • Hi A . Or as I see it- twice the square root of f**k all! I used to find his commentary a blend of entraining stupidity and annoyance, In truth he is now just boring!

            I know this sounds terrible, but part of me is dead keen to see what a squadron of F35’s would do to that stalled 36km column of russkies. The cost of the dropped ordnance though is likely worth more than the sum total value of all that ex soviet junk in that column!

          • Agreed mate, he was easily spotted as a troll, but we can live with the usual chuff! But once outed most change avatars etc (he probably has numerous accounts however). But now he has become a very sad excuse of an appeaser with no grip on reality. And a single Sqn of F35s, or even a western 4th gen would pretty much make Ukraine a no go area for air and ground forces mate methinks. Putin really has allowed the world to see what shit state his military is in, and now he will be on a back foot desperately trying to extract our whole saving face!

          • His economic experience amounts to counting potatoes and stealing 2 stroke for his second hand generator!

          • Now your on a role with your replies to people, any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine?

        • Pretty sure it was officers and commissars threatening to shoot them that kept many poor soviet soldiers charging the Germans at Stalingrad, rather than love of motherland.

          • This is actually true. Stalin executed 300 Soviet Army generals in October 1941 and another hundred or so in the following year. The survivors got the message. Brutal? Yes. Effective? Oh, yes.

          • Royal Navy achieved the same effect just by court-martialling and executing one of its Admirals. 🤷🏻‍♂️

          • Yawn, I seem to remember that that was a while back. You might not have noticed but things have changed since then.

          • Nope, half trained conscripts being treated like shit and killed then, and half trained conscripts being treated like shit and killed now! Nope, no change!

          • Yeah you’re right, I don’t recall Stalin invading any peaceful democracies and dropping cluster bombs on feeing civilians. Then again maybe things haven’t changed, both Putin and Stalin both like wiping out large numbers of Ukrainians.

          • And also to pick up Rifles that had been dropped by the dead front line as the second wave didn’t have a weapon between them not Motherland ,Survivaland Not one step back as the NKVD won’t just shot you but your family will be off to the Gulag Sean

        • Yaaaaawn not quite, as most the Russkie blokes are conscripts and have no choice. You are so full of tripe that you are actualy fun to read and respond to as your a farcical commentator who is in the same bracket as Kim Jong whatever and the NK brainwashed head sheds.

          • There are apparently no conscripts in Ukraine, only contract soldiers like I assume you were.

          • Now your replying, got your instructions and can’t handle troll finders? Ok any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine?

          • That’s not what the captured Russian conscripts say.
            Not is it what the families of killed conscious say.

            Surely it would be better if you said there were conscripts in Ukraine. Because if these are Putin’s professional soldiers then I’d hate to see how the conscripts would perform 😂

      • Last thing I heard from her was how she was celebrating the “Independance” of Donbass & Putin invading on day 1.

    • Hi Danielle,
      Yes good points made! I would also add that operations in Syria with the blessing of Assad was one thing targeting civilians, it’s another facing a functional military with support from UK, US and others.
      Cheers
      George

      • And now Putin is looking to borrow some of Assads troops to Liberate the poor downtrodden Ukrainian people who have all suffered under the Neo Nazi Government Boy is Putin getting desperate So now he has Chechens and Syrians ,Both Muslins fighting in a Christian/Jewish Country That won’t bode well when Putins hauled in front of the War crime tribunal if he survives , George

  4. Sad news today, Colonel Oleksandr Oksanchenko is dead. He was the Su-27 pilot that many of us would have enjoyed watching at air shows. His Su-27 was shot down near Kiev by a RuAF S-400 missile, fired from Belarus, at 150km range. He has been awarded a Hero of Ukraine medal. RIP.

    • I think you should be more worried Ivan of what Commanders the Russians have lost and everything else,,, like your passive aggressive approach there Ivan lol.

      • If experience in Syria is anything to go by, arned forces like the Russians will always lose more senior officers than NATO countries as they operate further forward than ours do.

        • LOL absolute Rubbish Ivan ,its more the fact Russia’s force security behind the lines is almost non existent and as with everything this campaign shows Russia is very poor even in the basic military doctrine lol. Keep trying to polish that Russian turd Ivan.

        • Yeah, Russian officers need to be further forward in order to put the barrels of their sidearms into the backs of conscripts to encourage them to advance or else…

        • Nope, not at all Russkie boy, you lose top brass as most are as shite as the dross they lead. And as for Syria, you were a joke over there as well. Carpet bombing any old town as you cannot operate in any sort of modern, combined arms formations, with any tactical innovation or precision munitions. As I have said many times, Putin has shown to the world just how crap and un-scary your conscript dross is.

    • Hero award for bombing kids, wow! About normal, but I suppose if he actually flew more taining hours and less airshow flights he may have been combat capable. Average of 90-100 flying hrs per annum per pilot (the ones who fly the more modern airframes, less hours for the those who fly older platforms) means crap output, very basic skills and very basic coordination and combined arms ability. Target COORDs written on a fucking pice of paper, not in the targeting computer or even on his leg of his flight suit. Sad that anyone gets killed, but alas will be expected when the uniformed so called “professionals” are so shite!

      • You really screwed that reply up didn’t you?

        You are so determined to spew bile at me that you didn’t notice that I said he was a Hero of UKRAINE, a Ukrainian Air Force Senior, highly skilled and rated Colonel.

        AS such how could he possibly be bombing kids?

  5. Like has been said many times in the past, it’s not only having the kit but knowing how to best use it and that is something we in the West do best. Big part of our budget is spent on training and there is no substitute for it. Quality over quantity. The heavy losses they (Russia) are suffering and moral is low for the most part as conscripts are just not up to it. We will all pay the price of this MAD MAN desire to have the old Soviet state back. I feel the little people everywhere.

    • I am not sure it’s a training issue, or atleast not the core of the issue. Training would have been highlighted by significant operations (as in mass of planes being used) with heavy losses or failure to hit targets etc. There hasn’t it seems been heavy operations, the airforce appears to be lacking. Russian docerine is to accept higher losses than the west, so doubt it’s concerns about SAMs.

      I wonder if it’s logistics again, it seems to be the core of the other issues so far.

      • Hi Steve,

        The linked to article highlights the training of the pilots and the training of the planners.

        Both are critical in the execution of large scale air operations in contested airspace. One of the reasons the RAF work so closely with civil air traffic control is to ensure that the UK has the ability to control airspace in any conditions, just getting large formations into and out of action is a complex problem.

        Then you have to make sure you don’t all arrive in the same bit of sky at the same time, or you will bump into each other if not litterally then room to manoeuvre and fight will be occupied by friendlies trying not to shoot their friends down. So you need to arrive over a target at spaced intervals with minimum gaps that are sufficient allow effective targeting, etc.

        Throw in the intelligence you may or may not have on your enemy’s defences and there is a massive amount of information that needs to be collected, colated, understood, disseminated to the relevant commands and acted upon. Then you have to go and up date the information because you just made your original information obsolete by blown stuff up or encouraging stuff move. Those HQ processes alone require training, training and yet more training. If the Russian Air Force has not been training and developing those processes and training its pilots to be able to understand and respond to the ‘big’ picture, then yes I think the article has made a very good point.

        Logistics could also be an issue, but the Russian Air Force is operating from its main bases, no reason for them not to. I think the training budget may well have been trousered as Supportive Bloke suggests.

        Cheers CR

    • If we’re so superior why aren’t we stepping in to push Russia out of Ukraine rather than letting Putin get on with it? Putin has no qualms risking WW3 yet we, with better kit are too afraid oppose him with it. Makes no difference how good or superior you’re kit or training is if when your enemy attacks your neighbor you choose not to use it to threaten, deter them or drive them out.
      We’re broadcasting to the ROTW we’re unreliable, weak & spineless allies.

      • Russia’s conventional forces would quickly be swept out of Ukraine if NATO chose to go in with its own conventional forces.

        Unfortunately, that just makes the chances of Russia resorting to tactical yield battlefield nukes to (over)compensate far more likely, where it escalates to from there is not something that bears contemplating.

  6. Back in the days of Stalin and his five year plans, the collective farms would often have a show field to demonstrate to the visiting officials that they were meeting their quota’s.

    These show fields were however just a stage managed front, picking the best examples from that collective and putting them all in the one field where they would then rot and die (from being prematurely harvested) once the officials had left. The rest of the farm bore no resemblance to the display put on in the show field and in fact, good food went to waste in keeping up the pretence.

    Looking at the standard of kit on display in the Ukraine and the general poor use being made of it I have to wonder if there is a “Victory Day Parade” armed forces for the consumption of the various Red Square (and other) audiences and an actual armed forces that bear no resemblance to this, a result of endemic corruption and not wanting to pass bad news up the command chain

    • I know it’s not particularly relevant but years ago I remember the Queen and the D of E visiting RAF Lyneham. Their route around the station was decided upon and somebody went round and made a note of everything that could be seen from the route. What could be seen was then spruced up and painted. A succession of Royal visits down the years meant that buildings, including married quarters, etc were only ever half painted. The D of E, of course, would sometimes mess things up and go off route.

      • I remember something similar at Southend General Hospital urgent painting going on in the areas she was to visit despite reports at the time that hospital was suffering serious financial issues. That sort of thing is sadly endemic here.

        As for Russia you can guarantee they only put on display the most modern and spotless examples of their armaments to give an illusion of strength built as we see now on numbers over quality. So much of their equipment looks pretty identical to what I saw as a kid and the endless breakdowns they are suffering suggests that much of it is from that time too and or poorly maintained. This war has convinced me that they could not operate effectively against NATO equivalents at least as long as we have sufficient numbers to avoid being overwhelmed and to replace casualties which at long last seems to be happening in Europe. About the only positive I’ve seen so far. I have long been unimpressed by out and out spec oneupmanship with Russian weapons esp aircraft with speed and manoeuvrability on paper that is mostly meaningless in practice while ignoring the glowing inadequacies in their design and/or the electronic/strategic environment within which they operate.

        Hey you only have to look at Intel chip boasts and paper specs of their silicon over the years to see how little they mean in real time use to get an idea of the real picture.

  7. I think we all do hope that any Ukraine airforce left or in exile will be able to further knock out that large convoy and maybe also do some damage down south and maybe sink a Russian ship or two!
    💪💪 and lots of missiles and planes to 🇺🇦 and its people!

    • I suspect that is because we have modified their systems?

      I am pretty sure that is why Google Maps and Apple Maps came offline when GLONASS was messed up so that there was not a quick fix.

      I wonder if the encryption has been switched back on for accurate GPS in the region?

  9. Russia has vast numbers of everything from nuclear subs, icbm’s, tanks, fighters, bombers, manpower etc. Yet a defence budget not far from the UK’s.

    Knowing how ferociously expensive these systems are to operate I’d question how many are actually serviceable and available.

    Also how many suitably trained and capable people are available in a military with a large number of conscripts.

    It’s very possible Russia simply does not have the jets available to fly.

    • We have like 34 nuclear subs if you include all the crap sitting in Rosyth and Devenport and most of that is probably more serviceable than Russia nuclear subs.

      • Its a good point. Could the Trafalgar class subs and possibly swiftsure class be reactivated if they were needed? I think possibly yes. They would still be comparable too and probably better than most Russian and Chinese subs. Leaving Astute to take on capital ships and surface groups as well as Russia’s very best SSNs.

        • No way.

          You cannot reactivate reactors that have been out of commission for that long.

          The certification has expired and the whole thing would need testing and certifying from the ground up which is not possible as the designs would not comply with current safety standards.

          A reactor that is in service keeps its certification by grandfathering.

          Then there is the little issue of hull life and the number of dive cycles that the hull can sustain.

    • The Russian SSN fleet, is essentially a Soviet fleet, even its new SSN (3) are build on dusted of Soviet programme.

      The thinking is that the Soviet are focusing refits on turning SSNS into cruise missile boats because sending them directly against Western ASW assets and the modern generation of western SSNs would not end well for the Russian navy.

  10. Russia has a defence budget of $60 billion per annum just a little more than the UK, with that they run an army of 900,000 men and air force of 4,000 aircraft a navy of 600 ships including 63 submarines not to mention a GPS system and significant space assets as well as 6000 nuclear weapons. That’s a force comparable to the USA which spends $600 billion a year. What we are seeing is the Russia has a hollow force because there is no way you can run a force like that on a budget that small even for a third world country like Russia. Lack of budget is compounded by the fact they have never had an out of area operation beyond Syria since the 1980’s and Syria was pretty small scale by any of the NATO interventions since 1991. The laws of physics and economics apply to everyone including Putin. I honestly think the generals deluded Putin in to thinking they were now a capable force after he increased their budget. It also make you wonder just how many of their nuclear weapons actually work. It’s costing us £100 billion to renew just 240 with platforms and missiles and the USA is spending $1 trillion plus. Look at all the issues the US has had with legacy weapons especially Air Force missiles. The good thing is Xi will be watching all this in China and asking serious questions about his own military and it’s capabilities. It’s all toy soldiers neither Russia or China has ever won a war unless you think having half your country over run until the attackers logistics break is a win.

    • You mean the bad thing is China will be watching this and now fixing the problems within its own!?

      It would be interesting to see a comparison of Russian equipment, as in how much of it they still have on the books was introduced in the 60s, 70’s, 80s etc upto now as I really doubt they have actually introduced much in the last 20 years.

      • It’s difficult to fix though, decades of experience in operations and training have gone in to teaching western military forces and even when we are not all at war I.e. the USA in 1940 or 1982 we embed advisers in each other’s militaries to learn lessons. China has no experience at all in anything and the only people who can teach them I.e the Russians clearly don’t know what they are doing either. You can buy all the fancy toys you want but if no one teaches you how to use them then your screwed. Everything beings said in the article about Russian practice has been said about China as well. Very limited training of aircrews in set piece pre planned manoeuvres. Invading Ukraine is a piece of piss compared to an invasion of Taiwan. Even the USA and the UK combined would toil to launch an invasion of Taiwan without enemy submarines and aircraft shooting at the invasion force. China will be learning that lesson now.

        • I agree, invading Ukraine should be easy for Russia.

          Logistically it is on their doorstep. Their land radars overlook it. It is well known to them and they could scout it out without attracting attention.

          I could go on and on but the conclusion is that they don’t have a clue and are not professional in depth.

          It will cause China to sit up and think and realise that any Russian military tech they have ripped off or bought is basically useless. So a lot of the stuff they have spent ages reverse engineering and building is basically garbage.

          That starts with the aircraft carriers……and moves onto the fighter jets.

          I do expect the Chinese to be better at digital comms TBH as they have a proper digital industry.

          • Easy???

            The Ukrainian Army is the largest in Europe with 7 odd years of NATO training.
            It has got 8 years of operational fighting practice fighting in the Donbas.
            An estimated 60k of its infantry are right wing fanatics seeming determined to take as many others with them to Hell as they can.

            They come from the same strategic/tactical background as the Russians so understand what is likely to happen.
            Their equipment is very similar, if not identical to that which the Russians are using.
            They have received large numbers, game changing as a UA General put it, of ATGM.
            As of now they are receiving, on NATO terminals, updates on Russian movements.

            I could go on but a final point, they have the support of most of the population.

          • Yes, the UKRAINIAN have the support of most of the population.”

            Yes, the Ukrainian forces do have the support of most of the population…..

          • Oh yeah its by far on par, Ukraine was spending circa 4.3 billion on defence, whats Russia’s budget again?

          • Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn same shite you come up with. Trolling must be easy to get into and hard to get out, as those potatoes wont be given free son, you have to work hard trolling to get them.

          • What did I say that was shite as you so eloquently put it? Come on, get your brain in gear and critique my comments, not just spout your normal shite.

          • Troll now angry, Troll not like being trolled, Troll been talking shite for about 3 weeks now, naughty troll! Any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine?

          • Strange really, because the Russians don’t seem to be very good at fighting the Ukrainian military, but very good at fighting unarmed civilians.

          • Indeed, the tried the soft approach for a couple of days but then they remembered the US/NATO way, as so profesionally demonstrated in, at random Libya, Iraq etc., bomb the place flat, who cares about civilians, then go in. Methinks glasshouses comes to mind.

          • bomb the place flat, who cares about civilians, then go in.

            That was and is the tactics of the jihadi suicide bombers , Republican Guards, ISIS, Taliban, Russian military and Wagner group. Due in no small way to their absolute lack of training, tactics, leadership and just about everything else. No war is ever clean and sterile, but NATO and Western forces make strenuous efforts to avoid civilian casualties albeit not always successfully. But they try.

            But your lot are making headlines worldwide with their combat ineptitude and contempt for civilian life. Strongman my arse !!

          • Can you give examples of which cities in Iraq and Libya the West flattened in the way Russia is currently needlessly flattening towns and cities in Ukraine please?

          • Pretty sure Russia is the European nation with the largest army. But given Ukrainebis the second largest country in Europe it makes sense it would have the 2nd largest… especially when the largest army marched in 7 years ago and occupied part of its territory.

            If you’re referring to the Azov Battalion, they certainly don’t number 60k. The far-right are such a minority that in the last election they polled 2% in the election and won zero seats in parliament.
            Whereas in Russia the far-right party, lead by Vladimir Putin has been in power for decades.

            Sounds like you’re preparing your excuses for when Russia inevitably fails. Because in no scenario is Putin going to win this war.

          • That’s why we really need a focus on China around countering it Mercantile strategy. We are funding their R and D as well as their industrial capabilities, while at the same time they actively work again Western influence.

            The west still has the advantage in most areas and we need to keep that advantage, because China is just waiting until it thinks it has the edge.

      • even most of their new systems were actually dusted off Soviet programme that got suspended after the fall of the Soviet Union.

    • My big concern, given the general poor quality of the Russian military, would now be the safety controls and procedures around their nuclear forces to prevent accidental or rogue launches.

  11. Pretty clear that trying to be one of the big boys with a moderate economy means even spending a big chunk of your GDP forces most of that cash to be channelled into quantity rather than quality both in terms of kit and more importantly training.

    Very much starting to look like a paper tiger, except of course where nukes are concerned.

    • They’re the definition of paper tiger. From what we’ve seen the past 10 days in Ukraine a single UK armoured division with some Apaches and Typhoons for air cover and even a dozen GLMRS plus some other artillery, fighting alongside the Ukrainians, would have beaten the crap out of the Russian forces!

      • Agree. A British armoured division formation would probably be able to defeat 3 or 5 to 1 ratio of Russian army with ease.
        The Russians aee really only proving that any attack vs either a NATO country or Finland/ Sweden will result in a swift and painful lesson in modern warfare.

        • It’s like the Russian army missed the whole chapter on Combined Arms and logistical support. They lost the war and don’t even know it yet.

  12. Off topic… but anyone else seen the stories that Putin could have terminal bowel cancer? Treatments accounting for his puffy face, in pain so affecting his mood, also explaining why he’s in such a rush to leave a legacy? If a bankrupt pariah state counts as a legacy…

      • If he isn’t I hope he is soon! Normally I’d wish him a long slow departure, at the moment though the quicker the better!

    • I have mentioned this a few times. First mention of his health go at least a year back and for some time now it’s been claimed he is on Steroids for a presumed medical condition. Why I suspect he doesn’t want people who matter too close. It does leave the concern that yes it’s an all out play for a statue in Red Square as he leaves this world but more importantly if he doesn’t get what he wants he will be happy take the rest of us with him his demands are impossible to give so it may well be endlessly provoking the West till they have to draw a line and then sell it as an attack on Russia to create the environment where others around him will be under pressure to obey ever more vicious and protagonist threats till pressing the button starts to look like just one more small step to protect from the total humiliation of their Country. Let’s hope those who could make it happen are not willing to follow that plan for themselves and families sake as well as ours.

      • The fact the people in the chain of command have families, not to mention possibly lucrative assets to be hopefully unfrozen once their mad leader is departed, there’s a hope they would see the madness of triggering a totally pointless nuclear exchange where Russia isn’t even threatened.

        I would hope someone is putting feelers out in diplomatic circles to assure them life will improve for them once their mad leader is out of way and some rational thinking resumes.

  13. The Ukrainian Air and ground forces are well versed in Russian military tactics and are familiar with Russian kit. Simply put Ukraine was a satellite state of the Soviet Union. The same Russian planning and tactics was used in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria. The Ukrainians are using man portable ground to air missiles and have been trained to use them. Parts of Ukraine remain a high threat environment for the Russian Airforce. I’m astonished at the seeming lack of countermeasures the Russians deploying. Looking at video footage of Russian rotary assets flying straight and level throwing out loads of flares, it is not surprising that losses are mounting. So Putin will go back to his tried and tested method of indiscriminate carpet bombing and Surround the nations Capital and starve it into submission.

    • The lack of counter measures and evasive terrain following flying are interesting. I watched the KA52 Havoc being shot down by US supplied Stinger. The Havoc was flying low, slow and straight. Very easy to get a stinger to lock on and bring it down.

  14. I fear this war will go beyond Ukraine, Once Putin has subjugated most of the country he will then turn his attention to the Baltic states, I reckon he is holding back his Airforce for the coming war with NATO.

    • I’d say Moldova and Georgia are more likely, both ex-soviet and neither are in NATO. Far easier pickings. Assuming of course he hasn’t died of cancer (allegedly), been kicked out, or Russia hasn’t run out of money.

      • Or all his tanks have not had a visit from Mr NLAWS or JAVELIN and the aircraft and helos from Mr Stinger?

        • One can hope! If we can keep the supplies going into Ukraine it seems Russia are going to lose an awful lot of equipment, plus the poor sods who operate them.

          • What I hope this that with those nicely bunged up convoys they boys who operate them are now out of the vehicles so the vehicles and stores can be destroyed with minimum loss of life.

            The conscripts can then say, hand on heart, I did what I was told and my vehicle was destroyed with my AK47 in it so I had to surrender.

            Tanks and helos are being destroyed a quite a rate whoever you believe.

      • Yes. Moldova and Georgia. He might simply infiltrate those two – ‘intervene to stop internal strife’.

        I am not too worried in truth. He takes today what will be impossible to hold on to in a few years. In the past victors could impose a ‘Carthaginian Peace’; that is, kill the entire population (see also ‘the Harrying of the North’ after the Norman Conquest). I don’t suppose he is up for that. These places will be impossible to subjugate entirely. And Putin is biodegradable like as all.

    • He would get slaughtered in the Baltics, now we have a counter to his hybrid war and enough pre positioned assets they would have very little chance. AirPower alone would do the trick. S400 appears to be nonsense as does his A2AD bubble in Kaliningrad.

    • Not so sure anymore. Even if Russia wins this war, their miltiary strength and the associated influence that brings has been destroyed. I think most people didn’t expect Ukraine to fall without a fight but equally I doubt many thought Russia would struggle as much as they have. The 170k plus forces they had amassed on the border, seem to have vanished and changed into small skirmish forces. Could that army realistically take on a much more modern miltiary that they would find in any attack on a NATO country. I doubt even Putin is that blinded that he hasn’t noticed the issues.

      • Well, we simply do not know yet, looks like they are sticking to the old Soviet doctrine of using conscripts as cannon fodder, to wear your enemy down and deplete his ammo levels. Russia has plenty of reserve forces, I just feel they have not fully committed everything to the battle yet. I know they have a few S-400s standing off outside of Ukraine, but I have yet to see any more evidence they have sent their cutting-edge tech into the fray.

        • You are correct. There is no evidence that the Russians have committed much if any of their top line Guards armies. Regardless of what we think here it must be worrying NATO that the Russians are rolling over Ukraine, albeit slowly, with what are, apart from the VKS (airborne) and Naval Infantry, their second tier forces.

          We are not seeing the heavy, fast, hammer down strikes that might have been expected. Just look at the gear, that gets so many comments here, it is simply old. There are videos out there of the DNR/Russian advances with a few T-72 and BMPs, maybe a Grad or two, no artillery. Yet that force is advancing fast in the countryside, which is all most of Ukraine is. If you have been to France, imagine it with half the population, that is Ukraine.

          There could be a simple reason for ths. They want to keep their best back as a threat to NATO just in case there was a change of mind in supporting Ukraine.

          • You are looking not very hard then Ivan I’ve seen plenty of knocked out and abandoned on a daily basis T80’s, T90’s and TOS but fuel tankers seem to be Russia’s major priority and they are knocked out for fun .

          • Yep, there are a lot of T-72/T-80/T90s taken out, no sign of the much-hyped T-14/T-15 yet.

          • Because they’re vapourware 🤷🏻‍♂️
            Because they can’t even get them to start? 😆

          • Top line? Hilarious, am considering sending over the UK Air Cadets to give your Russkie shite some soldiering skills….NATO isnt worried, as all Putin boy has done is destroy any image we may have had of an improvment of your Russkie skills. Total laughing stock son, laughing stock.

          • 😂🤣😂🤣

            Somebody not heard of defence in depth.
            Somebody not heard of letting your enemy stretch his logistics to breaking, then break it for him.
            What’s the point in advancing fast across the countryside when you run out of fuel and have to walk back to Russia.. while farmers tow away your AFVs with their tractors!!! 🤣

          • Rolling over Ukraine? Ah yeah they decided to go around all of the towns to make it look good on a map that they had gained lots of territory then somehow ended up in a traffic jam with themselves that they cant get out of. Very very impressive indeed.

            If they had actually stopped to fight at each place they wanted to take over they would have hardly made it a few miles into Ukraine itself by now.

  15. Lost another SU34 last night, a patrol ship has possibly been sunk by a grad mlrs-of all things and reports that up to 30 helicopters were destroyed on the ground at an airfield near Kherson.
    if that last one is true that is a massive failure on the part of Russian AD and I’d possibly start thinking this whole thing is being sabotaged from within, I just can’t understand how they can be this inept.

    • With things like the Rivet Joint hoovering digital info up we know where everything with a radio of any kind is?

      So not hard to say a cluster of X radios is at ABC coordinates – enough to be worth the risk?

      I don’t think Putin will want to use his scrapyard landing ships in action against Odessa. There is enough JAVELIN there to make a landing very, very hard. One in though the doors as they open…..

  16. Without their air force the Russians will still succeed. Of, course success here is shelling civilians until the rest give up. The mistake is to think that Putin is in any way likely to be bothered by fatalities and destruction. He isn’t, wasn’t ever and won’t be. Ukraine will have to surrender soon. The real question is then, what next? I have abandoned my belief in British made. I think we and the rest of European N.A.T.O. just have buy off the shelf or even surplus to ramp up our military and fast.We must expect widespread wobbles and defections from the vapid ‘international community’ when they see how the wind blows. ‘Alone then. So be it’ comes to mind.

    • “I have abandoned my belief in British made”

      Like NLAWS – made in Belfast at the old Shorts factory?

        • Showroom, no.

          Ability to make things, yes.

          A lot of good things are made in the UK.

          A non exhaustive list:-

          QEC
          T45
          T23 -> T26
          T31/T32
          Ceptor
          NLAWS
          Typhoon
          Radar2
          Hard bits of the F35
          EJ2000 and family
          Various RR GT’s
          Electric drive motors for ships
          Artisan
          SAMPSON

          The list goes on a lot longer than that…..and that is all top drawer stuff.

          There are some things that we should just buy such as P8 & F35B.

          There is a balance to be struck.

          Buying everything off the shelf isn’t a solution at all.

          • My apologies, my misunderstanding. I thought you were advocating a shopping trip to Davis Monthan or something similar. Indeed we do make some top quality kit, we just don`t do it very quickly. At the moment I do believe a degree of urgency is required.

      • Beat me to it. I still believe in British made. Anyone seen what a Chally 2 could do to a formation of T72MBs or T80s from 2 miles away. Answer is slaughter them.
        NLAWS made in Belfast. Lets have another 20,000 the Ukranians say they are very effective at killing all Russian armoured vehicles including their MBTs.
        Type 45 destroyer would make a mess of any attacking Russian aircraft.
        QE carrier even with just 24 F35Bs onboard could probably destroy most of the Russian airforce.
        F35B is i consider partly British made and huge success story for UKPLC. The number 1 tier 1 partner.

      • We are spending much more than we need elsewhere for equipment that won’t come along in years and may be out of date when it is available. Presently we have to get up armed quickly. Lease Lend, Bloke,

        • Nope

          Common stockpiles with US as per the P-8 are the way forwards.

          We put in say the Mk41 VLS and use Standard-6 at least to start with an then change over to the new Anglo French solution if it is better. That way we have something that goes bang from the off but don’t waste massive piles of cash on short term solutions.

          • Yes. That is what I implied. We do not have time on our side. I still do not think Russia will give up on its invasion until Putin is toppled. Meanwhile we and the Europeans need to re-equip with whatever we can get our hands on. The ‘common stockpiles’ could include tanks and aircraft presently stored in the U.S.

    • Why on earth would we buy surplus?!

      What’s wrong with Typhoon, in terms of combat aircraft? Expensive but highly capable. With Germany’s defence budget looking to increase and ours very likely to, the two countries could easily purchase 100 Typhoons as a bulk purchase and take 50 each.

      If any other European air forces wanted to beef up I’d say go for Typhoon. The more of them ordered, the cheaper they will get so winning all round!

      Even buying “off the shelf” takes a long time. Might as well get something potent like Typhoons.

        • I read on the SkyNews site yesterday that Defence is the most likely department to get a budget increase and, if it happens, would be announced on 23rd of this month in the spring statement.

          Buying equipment “off the shelf” doesn’t literally mean it’s available right then and there. Take the F35 for example: they’re being built and there is a long list of customers. Even if we said we’re increasing to 200 of them and put the money in we won’t get them all for a while.

          Why should we buy something second rate that might not even be any good? We’re not Russia; we’re not going to throw lives and assets into the meat grinder and just accept high losses.

          • “we’re not going to throw lives and assets into the meat grinder and just accept high losses.”

            Just Ukrainian lives it seems.

          • If it were up to me, no.

            Watching Russia indiscriminately shelling cities and slaughtering Ukrainians – soldiers and civilians – honestly makes my blood boil!

            I’m in favour of covertly helping out Ukraine. If I were in charge I’d be sending our F35s in covertly to down Russian aircraft and target Russian SAM sites, massed artillery etc inside Ukraine to give Ukrainian ground forces a better chance.

            Being F35s they should evade radar detection and therefore no evidence we were ever there.

            That’s how I’d do it.

            The section you quoted from me there: I was referring to sending our troops into action with substandard equipment. I’d rather not buy some bog-standard F-16s and risk losing however many pilots against Russians when Typhoons or F35s would dominate.

            I’m all in favour of donating our Tranche 1 Typhoons to Ukraine – replacing ours with 40+ new Tranche 3s – though I appreciate doing so would be impossible and no help to Ukraine for the time being. Perhaps if a deal of some kind can be made and peace brokered then we could donate them afterwards as part of an aid package.

          • Would be better to give the T1s to Poland and they give there Su27s to Ukraine. But of course those SU27 would have been upgraded with nato stand off weapons nudge nudge wink wink. So plausible deniability. We’d just say any stand off weapons that hit Russian armour was fired from there newly acquired su27s. That’s what Putin would do, need to play him at his own game.

          • Steve, you are correct but this is an emergency. We and the Europeans need to pout on a show of strength. Put the wind up the bast@rds!

          • Is it really that much of an emergency? We’re not facing imminent invasion, nor is anyone in NATO. Russia has its hands full with Ukraine right now and will do for months if not years.

            If we bought jets e.g. F16 Block 70 or F15EX right now we won’t take delivery for several months or so at least.

            Even for older versions, if they’re in the Boneyard or any long-term storage they’ll still take months to make ready. I’m also not comfortable putting our pilots in lesser aircraft in a knee-jerk reaction.

            Even then it would take the best part of a year to train our pilots to fly these new aircraft.

            Given we have pilots coming through the pipeline training on Typhoons and F35s, we should focus on those and/or F35s.

    • I think that is very pessimistic even if it is what I feared before this begun. But I think the fears in the west are such now and the Russian efforts so appallingly poor, plus the deranged leader means my view is now very different.
      Can’t see any formal surrender coming when nearly three quarters or so of the country is still in their hands or un-occupied. Fact is if Kiev falls, esp if it’s greatly destroyed, the Russians will have created a generational hatred and will have united Ukrainians ( not mention appal any Russians who get to hear about it) to the degree that an easy occupation will be near impossible. They don’t have the numbers to occupy and they would be totally reliant on most of their units being supplied via the air. Hand held anti aircraft/tank weapons will still be very common especially in the west of the country and they will be hit very hard without the money or the endless infrastructure and back up to support and maintain troops in that environment. They won’t even find it easy to ‘Punish’ the originators of most of those attacks and morale will plummet.
      Their plan was to go lightly and hope enough Ukrainians would be willing to support a puppet for their own ‘peace and quiet’ absolutely failed and these tactics absolutely makes certain by any destruction of Kiev, will ensure few in Ukraine will support a puppet Govt and they get bogged down in a draining occupation that will degrade them mentally, physically and monetarily. Let’s hope that happens for as long as is needed for Russia to be incapable of taking aim elsewhere and Putin either dies or is so weakened that even his closest supporters make a move. The Ukraine is right they are fighting our war here, or at least preventing it becoming our war like it or not as Putin pushes more and more provocations towards us.

      • Thanks for your excellent analysis. I want to see N.A.T.O. preparedness visible and large scale. Frustratingly, we have been outmanoeuvred by a man who did something no rational human being would have done. Our options are limited now this monster is waging war on civilians, knowing we care about them. I am sure a lot is being done to help the Ukrainians fight back but how many civilian lives can they afford?

        I agree it will be impossible for Putin to maintain an army of occupation or a puppet in place for very long. The west must catch up quickly. Get people and force multipliers in place on the frontline states; re-open bases for U.S. and Canadian forces here if they will come. Wage an information war like no other. Go round to those waverers among the nations and remind them of who pays their bills – that’s you India! Blighty dd an outstanding job in the Second World War deploying ‘information’ and data for the world’s press; it isn’t all bangs and flashes.

        Your final sentence says it all.

    • Or how many Javelins, Stingers, NLAWs do we need to give the Ukrainians until they’ve destroyed every functional tank in the Russian army…?

  17. Off topic. According to Ian Blackford recent events are very good reason to abandon our nukes. Then goes on to say that Scotland would look to join NATO straight away on independence. So apparently a nuclear armed/backed defence pact is a good idea, but having them yourself isn’t. I’m sure there is logic there somewhere.

    • Not that I agree with him however given the highly accurate nature of nuclear weapons today and the likely first target of any nuclear strike beings to take out the enemies nuclear weapons then Scotland and Faslane would be the number one and possibly only target in the UK of a limited nuclear strike by the Russians. Given that’s just a few miles from Scotland biggest city you can see a point of being in a nuclear armed alliance but not having the biggest target in Europe on your door step. Obviously an independent Scotland would not be nuclear armed either no matter what the SNP policy on weapons. Again not that I agree with him. The SNP post Salmond and increasingly cakeist spouting much the same nonsense as brexiteers but then that’s what nationalist do, be they English, Scottish or British. Promise the land of milk and honey and get the other guy to pay for your problems.

      • Given the size of the UK we are all stuffed if Putin launched nukes at us. He’d likely take out Glasgow and Edinburgh early on anyway, regardless of Faslane. Something like 10 nukes (which is a limited strike given their number) would take out all the large metropolitan areas. All of which is mad more likely if we don’t have nukes to fire back.

        On that lovely note, lets reassure ourselves that Russian military kit is so badly maintained that they may not fire anyway.

        • So it ironic the SNP claimed defence companies would remain in Scotland post independence but miraculously these facilities would not be targets. You couldn’t make it up.

      • . The only thing Scotland will have going for it as a member of nato is its territory. The US would mandate bases in Scotland must host nuclear capabie bombers as an entry criteriato nato. So that pretty much puts it on the nuclear strike list. As usual the SNP present a complex issue as a simple binary choice that’s there’s to make.

    • He’s just talking crap!

      The only thing I can think of that he might mean that might make a lick of sense is that if we ditched our nukes we could afford to have a full-sized army, navy and RAF again.

      And we could. We could probably have a 100,000+ army with 300+ tanks.

      Or we could probably have a full RAF with 20+ fast jet squadrons

      Or we could probably have a potent Royal Navy with 30 or so frigates and destroyers and 12-15 Astute class submarines.

      Of course, none of that means a damn thing if it or our country as a whole can be wiped out by nukes. And not having nukes makes us more likely to be nuked by Putin, since we can’t do anything back.

    • Logic is not required. It is simply dishing the English. All that matters. Rub the people who provide you with a living standard up the wrong way as frequently as possible

    • Their nuclear strategy and that of general nuclear disarmament has been utterly trashed …. Simple fact, if you haven’t got nuclear weapons, or access to them, then nothing will stop Putin (or the next crackpot in the Kremlin) revving up his T90’s…

    • Well giving up it’s nukes has worked out so well for the Ukraine…

      Blackbird is a blistering idiot, the SNPs very own version of Diana Abbot 😆

    • Well he is towing the historical party line. This has been the policy for a long time so you need to look into why and when the snp started the no nuclear weapons in Scotland and with that where they are now is just a continuation of that policy. Up to a few weeks/months ago not many really thought nuclear weapons would be used.
      Now he is right on that it’s a huge target on Scotland/U.K. and will every other country in nato be hit with nukes if the big button was pushed? So the thinking of maybe Scotland would be left out of the nuclear strikes if there was no weapons in its soil. Not likely I think but others will argue other wise.
      Also we are talking about a small country of 5 million having nukes. Are they not right in saying it’s a big boys game? Would nato want every country in nato to have independent nuclear weapons or it to remain as is. That a few have them only.

  18. We should stop trembling in fear of Putin & put the fear of God back into him. Either he stops his invasion or we go in to do so. Everything else is futile concience-salving & just leaves him to get on with it. Stop appeasing brutal dictators. There’s no easy options, but making the wrong, inneffective choices just guarantees more of this.
    Time for talks is over.

  19. Putin has planned this for at least a year in advance but somehow the Russian air force was told too late? Doesn’t make any sense.
    Let’s face it, Russian money has been bribing western governments to disarm into the terrible weakness we’re in today & compromising our leaders for over 10 years. Putin gambled on us being too weak & stupid to intervene while he snuffs out a free democratic European nation. He threatens, escalates & bluffs & we just let him get on with it.

    • Russian money in no way has gone into governments disarming, thats a ridiculous statement and just complete cobblers.

  20. Interesting question. Perhaps one answer apart from the obvious incompetence issues and over-control from the centre is that Putin is trying to goad NATO into responding and he is therefore trying to keep his air force avalable for that scenario. In this sense a no-fly-zone, aside from the inevitable escalation issues, doesn’t achieve a great deal when there is a massive ground based artillery capability. Also having a land corridor to supply weapons and systems to Ukraine also risks dragging the corridor countries into the conflict. Putin has already threatened nuclear attack if anyone helps them.

  21. A very interesting artical but to people of an age were they can remember the fiasco of 1991 when the Soviet empire imploded the reports of Russian equipment left in East Germany and Poland stating that a good 75% of the aircraft had there braking systems drained of flued as the Russian guards would drain them to drink as they could not afford to buy the local vodka. The same was true for the Russian tanks and APC’s, with chronic alcoholism in the Russian forces being blamed for the lack of preparedness in the Russian and Soviet bloc forces.
    Fast forward to 2022 with the average wages of the Russian guards being very poor I just wonder if this is also having an impact on the readiness of Russian aircraft and might explain why the Russian armour is experiencing so many breakdowns.

  22. Russia looking for a way out? Just posted on the BBC. Personally I think the Kremlin are monitoring this site as I posted all this as a suggestion the other day (I don’t think that really). What is missing is a permanent UN presence to guarantee the peace. Worth it I’d say as Ukraine are giving up things they didn’t have anyway. Plus they can always amend their constitution after Putin has gone to enable them to join the EU if they want. although not sure if they mean Ukraine has to give up its arms – which is obviously a no no.

    Kremlin demands Ukraine recognise Crimea as RussianRussia has said that it can stop operations at “any moment” if Ukraine meets Russian conditions.
    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Ukraine must recognise Crimea as Russian, and Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.
    In addition to this, Peskov says Ukraine must amend its constitution and reject claims to enter any bloc (like Nato, for example).
    He adds that Russia will finish the “demilitarisation” of Ukraine, and if these conditions are met Russian military action will “stop in a moment”.
    The Kremlin spokesman insists that Russia is not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine.

    • Appease them now with territory and guess what? After they have been re-supplied and they re-group they will continue bombing civvies and lay waste to the rest of Ukraine. Followed by Moldova, Finland and Sweden while we faf around with sanctions – that deter nothing.

      • Finland and Sweden are very well trained and mostly equipped militarily, Russia would not have an easy time of either country.

        The terrain of Finland for a start would make taking it very difficult and if Finland was attacked absolutely no doubt Sweden would mobilise to assist as if Finland fell then Sweden would be next.

        • Putin’s tactics would be terror as with Ukraine. Go after people and cities, infrastructure and produce a refugee crisis. He wouldn’t think twice about the consequences.

          • They would be but he would struggle massively to do this in Finland and Sweden.

            Ukraine is flat and has vast open spaces, hes easily rolled in and surround Ukrainian towns and cities.

            Finland is not flat and its forces are also very well trained in the territory. The Russians found out once they are not easy to invade and would find the exact same problem again, especially with Sweden backing them up.

    • With Putin having broken most of his promises, demanding everybody aceeds to his every demand, killing civilians trying to use humanitarian corridors during so called cease fires & being a permanent member of the UN security council, I think a UN security force is pie in the sky. If Ukraine can survive & win, as I hope & pray, she’ll need a strong & well equipped military to prevent another Russian tyrant trying it again. Becoming part of NATO will be a must & we must waive the conflict impediment for them given the situation.
      Threatening nukes on anyone standing in his way is derranged & alone demands action from the UN.

  23. It would not surprise if we discovered later that the US has been funneling photo and electronic/radar intelligence from satellites as well as aircraft to Ukraine. The US has deployed a number of intelligence platforms on the perimeter of Ukraine. There is one report of F-35s flying along the Polish Ukraine border with all sensors active.

    • I reckon that it a certainty, that Ukrainian ballistic attack last week that destroyed a few Su-30s. Much easier to target aircraft on the apron if you know exactly where they are sat and with only a few mins delay. i.e. live sat. feed.

    • Was it not in the news earlier today that the US are relaying satellite imagery to Ukraine within 1-2 hours of viewing it themselves?

    • They are. The militia in Luhank have published photos of a NATO badged and serial numbered laptop they found with a load of other stuff in a Ukrainian Army bunker.

      • Hopefully it is the case, but I would believe anything the Luhansk Nazis say. Easy enough to buy a NATO sticker of Amazon

  24. In the past, the UK Secretary of Defence said the country will not allow the Ukranian military to collapse. Any updates on this!

  25. In hindsight, I’m not surprised. Looking at it, the Russian armed forces have for a while now been talking up their super-duper-unstoppable weapons that will rain destruction on anyone who dare challenge their greatness. But, when it comes down to it they can’t organise a piss-up in a brewery. If Su-30s etc. are so world beating, why are their burning hulks littering Ukraine, if dolly-parton, kontakt & relikt are impervious to APFSDS & ATGMs, why are fairly modern T-72s, 80s etc. being abandoned (some intact) along with their protective Pantsirs. The Kremlin needs to stop antagonising the West, not least because I’m starting to think the West would wipe the floor (& sky) with them.

  26. “Why hasn’t Russia achieved air superiority of Ukraine” Maybe it does not wish to unleash it massive air power yet?

  27. How practical would it be for Europe via a 3rd party, to ‘lease’ fighter jets to Ukraine? (whilst providing training on the quiet)

    • They would have to lease pilots aswell, training takes a long time unless its jets like Poland have that the Ukrainian pilots can fly.

      They didnt have a huge airforce to start with so pilots will be limited regardless of how many jets can be supplied.

      Air defence is more what they need but again training is the issue, the more capable systems arent just roll in and turn them on for anyone to use.

  28. For any of us old fogies this is deja vu all over again. All through the cold war we were scared shitless by the Soviet armed forces on display at the may day parades. When their kit proved mostly useless in the Arab – Israeli wars some said the Russians were keeping their top line kit back and just selling their junk to Nasser, Assad etc. THen the cold war ended and we got a close look at their top line kit and found it was little or no different to the junk used in 67 or 73. Plus poor training, rampant corruption and inadequate maintenance. On Land Air and Sea Russian kit is second rate at best. Thank god.

    • David wrote:

      For any of us old fogies this is deja vu all over again. All through the cold war we were scared shitless by the Soviet armed forces on display at the may day parades. When their kit proved mostly useless in the Arab – Israeli wars some said the Russians were keeping their top line kit back

      When the T72 came out, NATO had a fit :
      superiour armour
      125mm Gun (The 125mm was developed in answer to the British 105mm, which in turn was devloped after somebody drove a T54A armed with a 100mm gun into the British embassy during the  1956 Hungarian Revolution and the britis got the chance to have a really good look at it)
      Completely new smaller shape to the T62 (Yes the T64 did come out first, and set the trend for all Russian tanks until the T14 the other year. but the Russians refused to allow it to be deployed outside Russia and the Ukraine and so we didnt know much about it ) and the Syrians were the first people outside the USSR to receive it. When Israel went into Lebanon in 1982, they came up against the T72 and the L7 105mm gun as fitted to their Centurion and their 1st gen Merkava tanks was found to be able to knock out the T72. The Russians had realised early on that the armour on the T72 wasn’t as good as it should be and had started an upgrade (T72A) in 1979 which added more armour to the front of the turret which became known as Dolly Paton (for obvious reasons) amongst NATO circles. However after the bun fight with the Syrians, (who were supplied with the T72M which is the export version of the T72A) the Russians went back to the drawing board and added even more armour to the front of the Turret which saw the T72B earn the nickname…Super Dolly Paton.
      Funny enough, the Russians built a cavity into their T7 turret armour which they filled with large metal spheres , but it soon came out in the wash that the filler used to keep the spheres apart wasn’t doing its job and over time the spheres would settle at the bottom part of the Turret cavity ,leaving the upper part much more vunerable to enemy fire. But in the export models , they didnt have that problem as they filled that cavity with sand.

      • Here’s the thing though, they are deploying dolly-parton, kontakt & relikt now and its not up to scratch; at least not on first glance.

    • I am in no way a ‘war hawk’, as I have family serving in the armed forces, however if the ‘assessments’ are correct, it seems to me that the time has come, to take care of the ‘Russian issue’ once and for all.

      The USSR/Russia have been the source of conflict and trouble since 1945, as far as more learned people than I have attested to over the years. All the billions of pounds, dollars, roubles and nowadays euros, that could have been used elsewhere, and in more ‘humanitarian interest’ ways.

      If we do not fix Europe politically once and all, we will all be sitting here typing the same old guff in 5, 10 or however many years time. The only people who do not want long term peace and stability in Europe, are BAE systems, and the rest of the defence industry as a whole.

      No threat or little threat of any large scale conflict in Europe, means the arms industry loses lots of money.

      • See your point but Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The conundrum has been how do they possess so much military power on the back of such a small economy. That has been answered in Ukraine. They don’t. Militarily they pose almost zero threat to a revitalised NATO. Revitalised by there own stupidity in attacking Ukraine. They may deal with the deep seated problems of corruption etc but it will be adecade before it produces significant results and even if it does the stagnation and poor performance of their economy will not go away.

        • Damn what weapons the Russians have, we need to stop them now. Doing less is a humanitarian disaster, and a crime again humanity.

          • Arm the Ukrainians to the teeth. Which as far as an outsider can judge is what the west is doing. Could we do more ? We only know as much as we’re told but what we’re being told is unprecedented. If one Russian sets foot on NATO territory it would mean all out war. If it’s the other way around it would mean the same and all out war between nuclear armed nations is something to be avoided.

    • Hi David .Your observation is really interesting. I served in the SAAF Ops and Intel for a few years . We captured a vast amount of soviet equipment during a major ops in Southern Angola in 1984. I had a good look at the captured soviet gear, all of which was really aged i.e. T54/5, D30 122mm howitzers, MB 21 etc. That being said, the stuff was pretty much fit for “basic” purposes and I’m told, mechanically robust . The general view was their maintenance standards were poor. Some of the air defence was impressive- the SA8 commanded respect.

      Where (in my view) you absolutely nailed it, is their poor application of tactics, doctrine and capability. The general assessment was very unfavorable and their logistics were assessed as appalling. So it’s hardly surprising they are struggling in the Ukraine.

      • Thanks for your first hand knowledge on facing this stuff for real. No I know very little about tactics and doctrine. Have been digging out old books on the Soviet Armed Forces from WW2 and cold war eras most of which I can barely grasp. That’s the stuff for the experts on here.

        • cheers DS – do share anything new that comes too light. I think we can all relate to the Soviet Afghanistan experience as an example of what we’ve been chatting about.

          Stay safe Mate.

  29. There’s another possibility – that there is a rift within the Russian government, and some simply aren’t going along with Putin’s war. Perhaps some generals are aware that this ploy risks WW III, and don’t want to be vaporized?

    • Wiki put it well . .
      Friendly Forces Opposing Forces
      Aerial supremacy Aerial incapability
      Aerial superiority Aerial denial
      Aerial parity Aerial parity
      Aerial denial Aerial superiority
      Aerial incapability Aerial supremacy

  31. Probably the same reason that Italian Regia Aeronautica had less sortie rate in WW2 then in Spanish Civil War: Many top military echelon people did not agree with war.

    • I think Alexski its coming down the lack of quality training of Russian pilots and also the lack of Russian guided munitions hence the having to fly low .

  32. I have no love for the Russians – but they do make beautiful planes! (still, I’ll take a Typhoon any day!).

  33. Today I read more than 10,000 anti-tank missiles were sent into Ukraine by us and our allies. We can hope there were a substantial number of antiaircraft systems as well.

  35. I suspect that rampant corruption within the Russian Military and Government is part of the issue here. Rumors about that 40 mile long convoy North of Kiev having lots of flat tires due to using cheap Chinese knockoffs of Michelin tires are one example of this. You can bet that some General somewhere changed the supplier to the Cheap tires and diverted the rest of those funds into his Swiss Bank account. The same seems true to fuel supplies, and MRE’s. I was just watching a video where Ukrainian’s were looting an abandon Russian truck and opening MRE packages. The expiration date on the food was 9 years ago. On top of that you can bet it was never properly stored. A lack of maintenance, spare parts, trained solders, field experience, and lack of any combined air and ground operations training are causing massive issues.

  36. A general announcement to those esteemed commenters here who often reply to my posts with the most erudite of comments.

    I appologise if I am not picking up and replying to your posts but I seem to have dropped of this site’s excellent ‘post replied to’ system so I am only seeing said posts as I flick through.

    • No your email deliveries are being disrupted disrupted by all the cyberattacks that are going on over the internet in Russia; DOS attacks using up bandwidth, DNS going down, etc…

      except you claim to be in MK…

      • In no way defending dear comrade above but I have actually had disruption in the same, had a load of notifications yesterday for replies made 5/6/7 days ago, usually the system works very well.

    • So proof of the pudding that you operate from Russia then, it is simi cut off from the worldwide Internet.
      You only have yourselves to blame!

  38. Air superiority is needed if enemy Air Force is attacking your ground vehicles. That is not the case here because of availability of SAMs on Russian side. So why risk aerial assets whose small lose can effect moral.

  39. I’ve read through the comments posted here & regarding Russian failings in Ukraine & the triumph of NATO armament/arms.

    Well guys, you’ve no knowledge of history. For if you did, you’ll know that during the Winter War of 1939 between Russia and Finland, similar to what has been happening in Ukraine, the Russian military initially performed very badly and was almost routed by the Finns, who by the way and similar to what is currently happening with Ukraine, fielded arms sent by other European countries including the Gloster Gladiator fighter aircraft sent by the UK.

    The Finns very adept at winter fighting e.g. they had better ski troops also they had a better motivation (due to the fact that they were defending their territory and their existence) in the early stages of the Winter War outsmarted an inefficient Russian military, decimated among other things by Stalinist purges and hampered by poor leadership and equipment failures – a single Finnish sniper even killed 500 Russian soldiers.

    However, in the end, Russia gained the upper hand because, as the Finns and later the Nazis found out, Russia with its big size has limitless material resources (though it presently faces a population decline), also that it is able to take punishment with an ability to hold out if the conflict is near or within its borders. Just ask Napoleon Bonaparte or the German commanders such as von Paulus, von Manstein, Guderian, the wily Heinrici etc.

    Regarding the present conflict in Ukraine, the judicious thing will be to help the Ukrainians to force a stalemate on the battlefield and then negotiate a peace deal with Russia under the auspices of the international community, similar to how the Winter War of 1939 was brought to an end.

    Instead of people visibly suffering from crass ignorance posting stupid ignorant comments here. In essence, a waste of space.

    Voila

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