When Russia’s ramshackle armies trundled into Ukraine a year ago, very few gave the defenders a chance.
After all, they’d spent eight years unsuccessfully trying to fight off pro-Russian separatists (heavily backed by Moscow) in the east of their country.
Meanwhile Russia had been ostentatiously developing and modernising its armed forces and using them with decisive effect in Syria.
This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines.
Analysts – focused on Russia’s supposed “hybrid” “approach to war” had failed to appreciate two things. First, shiny gear and buzzwords does not an army make. Second, a nation in arms, united, motivated and well led makes a very formidable opponent.
Russian forces looked good on parade but, behind the paint and uniforms, the military was corroded by corruption, graft and inefficiency.
Since Vladimir Putin sent his war machine into Ukraine on February 24 2022, The Conversation has called upon some of the leading experts in international security, geopolitics and military tactics to help their readers understand the big issues. You can also subscribe to their weekly recap of expert analysis of the conflict in Ukraine.
The men manning its modern equipment were led by generals who had failed to obey the essential precept that planning and preparation prevents poor performance. Troops were not trained properly, or at all, and had little or no idea of what they required to do.
Such planning should and does involve a deep appreciation of the environment into which they are about to plunge – this is called “intelligence preparation of the battlefield”. By the way, while western generals might sagely comment on these matters, they made exactly the same mistakes in their disastrous wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan.
The signs were there early on, when units of Russia’s elite airborne troops were annihilated at Hostomel airfield near Kyiv. It took a just month for Russia’s chaotic and ramshackle columns to be thrown back from Kyiv.
A highly regarded Russian tank brigade was defeated by a Ukranian armoured unit a tenth of its size at the battle of Chernihiv – just one of several embarrassing defeats for Moscow’s war machine.
All at sea (and in the air)
Ukrainian air defences were as well organised and prepared as the Russian air force was inadequate in all respects. They dispersed their assets, ensuring the survival both of most of its aircraft and – vitally – an intact and superbly efficient ground based air defence system. This continues to defend Ukraine with panache.
Ukrainian airspace is denied to Russian aircraft, with the area above the battlefield an aerial no man’s land where only drones venture. Russia continues to conduct a failing strategic air campaign against Ukrainian civilian targets from aircraft flying deep inside Russian territory.
Even inside Russia, at its most vital and secure bases, Ukrainian drone attacks have forced Russia’s most capable bombers to seek safety.
In the maritime domain, Ukraine didn’t just manage to sink the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. It was also able to retake Snake Island, which is not only an iconic symbol of Ukrainian resistance, but a vital asset in the battle for the western Black Sea.
Russian ships venture out now rarely, and usually only to fire their cruise missiles at civilian targets before scurrying back to ports that find themselves under Ukrainian attack.
What to expect
Having won the battle of Kherson and retaken a poorly defended Kharkiv region in a lightning assault, the lines have been drawn for the next, and decisive stage.
The war has – for now – devolved into a first world war-style slogging match, where artillery dominates.
Russia is now capitalising on its only advantage: sheer numbers of largely poorly trained troops and mercenaries. It has been said that quantity has a quality all its own, but in modern warfare there are serious limits to the validity of that axiom. It is true only if that quantity can be protected by some form of armoured mobility and protection (apart from deep trench systems) on a battlefield saturated by artillery.
Western assistance has been vital and will be critical in two major respects. First, Ukraine needs to strengthen its air and ground defences and reconstitute them along higher-quality Nato lines. Nato and other western tanks, missiles and especially precision gun and rocket systems like the brutally effective Himars, have allowed Ukraine to counter Russian advantages in artillery.
Second, as Ukraine has taken fearful casualties including and especially in its most experienced units, training will become more and more vital. As Russia discovered early in the war, equipment is of little use unless troops have been properly trained to use it. This is especially so in combined arms warfare, the extremely difficult task of coordinating infantry, tanks artillery and air power.
Ukraine will counterattack, probably in the spring and will need all the help it can get if it is to drive Russian forces back to their borders.
Drawing a parallel with the second world war where the ethics for Britain and her allies were clear, this is the “good war” of our generation. Over the past year it has been well fought by the men and women defending their people, country and culture. They are also defending what remains of the international order.
Having defeated Russian forces at the battles of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson, Ukrainian forces now need to stave off the counterattack and demonstrate to a carefully watching west that they can retake and secure their country. Their success over the next few months will define the shape of the rest of the war, determining whether victory will come this year, or whether this will be a long and even more grinding conflict.
Last week General Mark Miley, the chairman of America’s joint chiefs of staff, while stating that Russia has already lost strategically, argued that neither side were likely to prevail this year. If nothing else, Ukraine has demonstrated that during this phase of the war it can and will surprise us, generals, analysts and all.
They will do so again this year.
Frank Ledwidge, Senior Lecturer in Military Strategy and Law, University of Portsmouth
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Russia did not fail to plan. In the light of the lack of resistance to the move into Crimea and its earlier experiences of re assertion of control in East Germany in1953, Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968, it expected to reoccupy Ukraine in a similar way- rapidly occupying major cities and imposing regime change.
The failure came later: when it became clear that Ukraine could and would fight effectively, Russia could not devise a plan B. Its army had no experience of combined arms operations against a well organized enemy. So it reverted to what it could do: flatten urban centres with rocket and tube artillery, the method that eventually worked in Chechnia.
It is hard to see what else Russia can do now. Its forces have been severely depleted and the poor quality of much of its manpower and equipment revealed. These problems cannot be remedied quickly if at all.
The Ukrainians are holding their lines, exhausting and depleting the Russian forces. Meanwhile the crews for the new tanks and IFVs are being trained and the equipment is arriving. I think Easter will see Ukrainian offensives.
But a failure of a plan B is a failure to plan
Not sure that many military operations have a plan B from the outset. All I was trying to point out was that Russia’s plan was in line with its previous experiences. The easy seizure of Crimea probably led their leadership to expect a similar walkover in the rest of Ukraine. They were not alone in underestimating Ukraine’s willingness and ability to fight.
Semantics. This ‘special operation’ was an omnishambles after a mere three days. The Russians couldn’t supply their forces with food for heavens sake. As Gen. (Retd.) Petraeus commented they spent a month on exercises before the invasion. ‘What were they doing? Camping?’ Elementary staff planning wasn’t done and hasn’t caught up even now.
As they say Barry, amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics.I think a major part of the Russian failing is their poor intel appraisal of the Ukrainian capability and resolve.
Might have served them well to read up on the Finnish incursion back in 1939. Perhaps the Russians don’t teach that debacle in their military academies.
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I’ma complete outsider Klonkers. You could have crept up on me in a tank! Hearing defect from birth. I thought the Russians would win in four or five days. I was stunned at what I saw. I have been to Lapland several times. Finland is bigger than one might think. It is criss-crossed with rivers and huge lakes and marshes that might have confused them; they did grab a lot of territory in the far north – Karelia. The terrain facing the Russians in Ukraine today isn’t much different. But with organisation like theirs that’s not the problem. Tannenberg here we come – again.
The Russians have had a number of set backs more recently than that and have never managed to reform its army even though it recognised its failings…the 1st Chechen war…Russia has a habit of walking its army into defeat.
By all accounts, it seems that the initial airborne raid on Kiev to seize the airfield and then power, almost succeeded. If not for a Ukrainian senior officer refusing to remove his troops from the city, as ordered by a Russian friendly general. It would have ended organised opposition there and then. Capturing/killing Zelensky and checkmating the opposition. Leaving Russian land forces to take the country with only sporadic, uncoordinated resistance from western trained insurgents.
Using pro-Russian officers in the Ukrainian command structure was obviously an important part of the maskirovka. As was the unexpected traversing of Chernobyl but ground troops. Had it succeeded we would be reluctantly admiring the audacity of the plan. It will be interesting to see how the historians record events.
It’ll be interesting to see how many of those Russian forces who traversed and even camped in the dead zone succumb to radiation related health issues in the coming years…
Absolutely, I agree. I’m amazed the troopers went through it without mutiny. Russian NBC IPE is not the best. I had the opportunity to try the Czechoslovakian old soviet kit back in 1991. Maybe they gave then iodine tablets and told everyone it would be OK. Not everyone understands decay rates, half lives and three eyed fishes.
I expect there were t told where they were, probably only the commanders had maps. If other reports are correct, the maps might have be so old they may have predated the building of Chernobyl!
Shocking really. The troops deployed for that op were not green conscripts. Maps be damned. The officers must have known and appreciated that leukemia and lymphoma do not respect rank. Crazy days. Simply cannot imagine western armies doing something like that.
OOPS! we did throw depleted uranium all over a battlefield our own troops were fighting through. Beware destroyed armoured vehicles, covered in jet black fine dust that smells of almonds.
I think we all just have to accept that the Russians are not very good at fighting. From Finland in the 1940’s to Afghanistan in the 1980’s Russia not very good at invading anyone and their strategy against the French and Germans of retreating until the occupier takes most of your country and leaves millions of your own citizens dead is not exactly a winning strategy as it either relies on the weather killing your enemies or the western Allie’s hitting them in the back.
Precisely correct.
Where is JohninMagnetogorsk? Anyone heard from him/them recently?
I’m here. Much of the time it isn’t worth posting in an echo chamber like this site. But I can’t resist this, you agreeing with Jim above on this statement
“Russians are not very good at fighting. From Finland in the 1940’s to Afghanistan”
You both must have lost your memory and judgement. To say that the Russians were not good at fighting in WW2 just defies belief. I could ram that home but I’ll leave it there.
I am being bashed about in this ‘echo chamber’ for sticking my neck out. but so what?
The mistakes of the mega murder in 1942 and after were decisive in his defeat. I concur with those who believe geography and climate defeated Napoleon and the Germans as much as Russian ability to overwhelm by numbers. But the performance relied on massive losses no western army would contemplate, even one who knew their enemies every move thanks to western Allied intelligence.
Meanwhile, how do you see matters in Bakhmut?
Can you show me an example of when the Russians where good at fighting in WW2? In the west we don’t consider pelting the enemy with waves of infantry that get needlessly slaughtered to be “good” at fighting.
What did you loose taking Berlin, 300,000 casualties including 81,000 dead. We managed to take all of North Africa, Western Europe, southern Europe and South Asia with just 300,000 dead, That’s what being good at fighting looks like.
You lost 300,000 men to an enemy that was already defeated taking a pile of rubble after loosing 27 million of your citizens and running away to Siberia to live off of USA food hand outs . That’s not a victory and it’s not being good at fighting.
You did even worse against Napoleon.
Bravo.
I did mention that to him also….
Bravo.
I suspect that Manstein had a rather different view of the Red Army than you.
Fortunately we didn’t have to fight our way into Berlin or face the bulk of the German forces.
We beat Napoleon at Waterloo.
Manstein was concerned about numbers, shit bust! Not Russian skill, tactics or ability, it was being overwhelmed by numbers and the absolute disregard for their own losses. No change for the Russians there then eh!
And who expected a big war? Here’s Boris Johnson in parliament on Nov 17, 2021, just months before the attack:
The Prime Minister: We have to recognise that the old concepts of fighting big tank battles on the European landmass, which I think is what you are driving at, are over, and there are other, better things that we should be investing in: in the FCAS—the future combat air system—and in cyber. This is how warfare in the future is going to be fought… I do not think that going back to a 1940s-style approach will serve us well.”
Well going back to a 1940s-style approach, and now a 1916-style approach certainly hasn’t worked out for the Russians 😏
I generally agree with your point but want to comment on the 27 million dead claim.
While the USSR was around the usual figure was 20-25 million.
After its collapse historians got access to its records and this was revised down to 15-20 million. Stalin had been blaming the Nazis for lots of his own killings.
Some also did the sums and came to the conclusion that over its74 years communism killed between 45-70 million people but that might include the war dead as they started WW2 with the Nazis.
The 27 million claim is a new one I have only heard over the last few years and is I think just pro Putin propaganda.
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Disagree. The Russians have tenacity, some might call it stupidity, however, as long as the Russians die, no worries. Slava Ukraine.
Echo chamber? From a troll pushing out Nazi propaganda! Oh dear you may need to re-read the many comments disagreeing with various western policies, attitudes and overseas intervention! But, that’s a moot point as you will ignore it….anyway as for Russians fighting ability, yes great if you think fighting and combat equals untrained, ill equipped and uncoordinated mad rush, with very high numbers of people, taking unnecessary and unacceptable casualties for a none strategic small tactical gain! Throughout Soviet history that’s been the case! It doesn’t mean you’re good at fighting it means you have no choice, terrified and expendable. But what do we know eh troll boy……
There were cases of Russians linking arms, pissed on vodka, and staggering towards German Waffen SS lines to be mowed down.
Almost everywhere Germany had the tactical advantage locally but lost strategically due to lack of numbers, logistics, mud, Russian roads, and weather. And later, Hitler.
Off my head, the defenders of Stalingrad deserve recognition. And even there, they lost most of the city and it took Stalin’s NKVD not a step back to steady them.
I think it was more a Russian general that a few weeks earlier was to loose his head, that made the difference. Pity he didn’t take Stalins head instead.
I think that the main reason you find it not worthwhile posting on this site is because you get found out every time. Not once has your misinformation and rubbish stood up to any kind of scrutiny, your narrative has more twists and loops than a snakes wedding.
I think the first Chechen war gave everyone including the Russian army a very clear indication that it was not fit for purpose..over 20 years they have tried to reform but never succeeded. In truth the Russia army is not capable of significant combined arm’s operations and has not been since the fall of the Soviet union. For its land mass and operational needs it had a very small professional force, probably around 140,000, with around another 140,000 of one year conscripts who signed a two year contract to get better conditions and not much else..it then had around 180,000 year conscripts who essentially got trained to cook the dinner and clean the base. It suffered massively from abuse and bullying which has made it unattractive for anyone who does not fancy getting beaten up. It’s NCOs are not trained to train and lead small combat teams but instead are trained as technicians only…it’s junior officers have to take on the role of western NCOs…leading the training and small units…..which leads its officers have less time to learn the skills of company, battalion and higher command.
In reality even the Russian senior leadership of the army knew it was not fit for purpose..but could never agree to get rid of the conscripts..fund and recruit the right calibre and numbers of contract troops or improve the training of its NCOs and free officers to learn to lead at higher levels…
But the very worst thing they did was..
1) invade a large Eastern European national during the Rasputitsa which was essentially simply asking to have its army destroyed…it was beyond stupid….literally insanity.
2) fail to recognise that the proxy war it had been waging on Ukraine for the last 8 year had in-fact strengthened its resolve and fighting spirit not sapped it.
3) failed to adjust once its decapitation operation had failed. This was hubris of the worst kind and the fact it somehow though is army, which it knew had not successfully reformed and was not fit for the purpose of a large scale peer war could take a nation as large as Ukraine with its fighting spirit intact.
Thanks for your analysis. I am not sure about their current ability or not to fight as a combined arms force. We don’t know as they haven’t tried yet. We don’t know either if such a move is in their plans, they may just move forward as they are now, a chunk at a time, minimising exposed flanks.
It is clear that the Russians are not hung up on gaining territory unless it fits their objectives. Almost everywhere they are active they seem to be trying to get the UA to come to them, be it a counterattack or topping up defensive positions.
We will see how it pans out over the next couple of months but nothing has happened to make me change my belief that the Russians are going to ‘win’ where ‘win’ is as yet undefined.
As for combined arms that’s what they tried in the beginning with their 140,000 professional army. That failed in its decapitation move. At that point Russia had lost the Ukraine war, now to understand that comment you have to understand the geopolitics of what makes a pyrrhic victory for a nation and even if Russia wins in Ukraine somehow.
The very sad truth is Russia has lost big where it really matters and that is geopolitically and strategically.
If you look at troop numbers it is very clear it has utterly destroyed its professional army, that 140,000 body of professionals. All it has left is a conscript army around 450,00 of which 300,000 are in Ukraine dying at a high rate. Russia has lost around 200,000 dead and 100,000 wounded. It’s still losing men at a high rate and a conscript army sent into offensive action in an attritional war will suffer even greater catastrophe casualties…it’s very likely Russia could see the loss of all of that present 300,000 conscript army in Ukraine and have to send in another load. Therefore is:
1) not going to be able to rebuild a professional army for at least another decade.
2) it’s probably going to have at leas 500,000 of its young men dead or wounded.that is a very serious problem for the future of the Russian state….that is a high proportion of its young male population in with a population demographic that is old and has a birth rate of 1.5..( it needs to be 2.2 to sustain a population).
But and this is key…Russia picked a fight with the wrong enemy. Due to the character of the west it was never going to invade Russia and would have happily paid top dollar for hydrocarbons until Russia could not pump them out..all the while investing in Russian industry…but Putin needed an enemy and he had a choice he picked the west because he knew the west would essentially take more before going to war that Russians real enemy the Chinese.
So effectively Russia has burnt every bridge with the one major power block that would never invade mother Russia the west….at the same time he’s destroyed his armed forces and well as a good percentage of his nations young men..leaving Russia catastrophically weak to its true enemy china…
Now if Putin believes for one second that China will not invade and retake outer Manchuria the second it’s ready to do so he’s bonkers…outer Manchuria is part of china is a fundamental belief system of the Han exceptionalists that china will be reunited ( all of China including the bits Russia pinched during the opium wars). The Han consider it theirs and they will get it back if they can.
Also china has a very big future problem..a very large part of it will become pretty uninhabitable within 50-100 years…and it’s food production will gradually suffer up until that point…China knows this…it needs outer Manchurian back as well as a very large area of the Russian pacific west. At some point it’s going to take all that one way or another.
Putin has critically weakened Russia as well as made a true enemy of the western world…Russians only practical defence against China was to play a third neutral power..with links to the west and china..he’s blown than and utterly destroyed Russia future as an independent nation…Russia will almost inevitably now end a puppet state of China.
You are missing the elephant. For at least the last 100-150 years the Anglo Saxons (basically the 5 Eyes) have been concerned about the latent power of the Eurasian landmass (as per Halford Mackinder’s Heartland) and have been doing all they can, mainly through wars and groupings, to prevent it becoming a threat to their primarily marine based control of the World. The biggest risk has always been perceived as the combination of German industrial might with Russian raw materials and more recently Chines economic muscle.
The current war in Ukraine is a classic example, the US couldn’t give a rats about Ukraine, its leaders have clearly stated that the war is all about weakening Russia and regime change there using Ukraine and sanctions as the battering rams, strengthening NATO as an incidental benefit. Apart from that the hidden agenda was to drive a wedge into the growing relationship between Russia and Germany (as per NS1/2 pipelines).
As to Russia/China they are being forced by the US to become closer to each other as China is well aware that if Russia fails it will be used by the US to surround China with US forces. They are now in a defensive pact. You ignore the very rapidly growing pipeline supply of gas to China. This, like the NS pipelines to Germany, are fundamentally important to both countries.
We are living in interesting but dangerous times as the US Empire comes under an attack that it itself created.
Sorry but Putins actions are entirely driven by internal politics not some historic issue. this is all about now not history….Putin needed an enemy and Ukraine was easy….it had no real alliances and played well with the Russian near abroad views.
The UK and Russia have for the past 300 years been either allies or enemies..depending on the geopolitical needs of each nation at the time…any Anglo Saxon anti Russian 150 year long campaign is utter tosh.
As for Russia its been expansionist throughout most of its iterations…..Russia has essentially been three completely different states..from a authoritarian empire with an absolute monarchy…that competed with every other empire..to a communist state who’s avowed published aim was to make the world communism ( with Russia leading) via violence…this was the published and documented aim…Russias focus between 1945 onward was to conquer every nation in Europe and overthrow their governments…the it became democracy which has transitioned into an authoritarian almost dictatorship….
lets be very very clear Putin causes this war he invaded another sovereign state 8 years ago and this was going to be his final conquest. As for the US empire…..you’re getting hegemony and empire mixed up. Personally I would much rather see US hegemony in which the leader gets kicked out if they are crap and cannot rule beyond 10 years with lots of checks and balances and a requirement to follow the rule of law and a potential Russian empire led by a brutal dictator or a bunch of han exptionalists who happily harvest criminals organs or put ethnic minorities in re-education camps.
defensive pact….China is run by a hyper aggressive far right group of exceptionalists…they are in no way defensive…they are as aggressive as any western culture….Russian has happily invaded 3 countries in the last 20 years…using a we are defending the rights of ethnic Russians…..
More lies, delusions and pomposity from our resident Lord Haw Haw…
OMG who has spoon fed you that crap to to post? Hilarious, what a cluster of crap 😂😂😂😂💩
So when you said “The current war in Ukraine is a classic example, the US couldn’t give a rats about Ukraine, its leaders have clearly stated that the war is all about weakening Russia and regime change there using Ukraine and sanctions as the battering rams, strengthening NATO as an incidental benefit. Apart from that the hidden agenda was to drive a wedge into the growing relationship between Russia and Germany (as per NS1/2 pipelines)”. Putin has therefore fallen into NATO’s trap and he’s been outsmarted – by your own words! Russia is significantly weaker today that one year ago. NATO is much stronger today than it was last year and Germany doesn’t want anything to do with Putin. Thanks for the clarification!
Combined arms warfare, They tried it and failed, like I said the Russians are just not very good at fighting. They are good a shelling indiscriminately, raping, bombing hospitals and dying on mass at the orders of stupid generals but we don’t consider these key military attributes.
The Russians kind of fight the way that Lemmings would. Mass suicide until the bodies pile up and over whelm the defenders with smell. Not the kind of tactic a country with so few young people can follow.
You seem to have a very onesided view. Underestimate your adversary at your own peril.
We don’t underestimate Russia’s ability to rape, torture and slaughter innocents…
Something Putin didn’t do.
Most adversaries yes, but a bunch of nonce untrained rapists, nope sorry Johnny boy! But, I must say your replies are getting less neutral and more desperate?
Easy to under estimate a supposed superpower. who cannot fight a small country. smacks of lies and questions where has all the money gone. that has been said Russia spent on Weapons. only success’s in WW2 was when the Allies flattened everything before the Russians ran in and grabbed the flag. and Murdered unarmed German Troops. funny that war crime got ignored
You said “You seem to have a very onesided view. Underestimate your adversary at your own peril”. I think the big problem was that the world massively overestimated Russian strength prior to February 2022. Today, the world sees it for what it is.
“…..’win’ where ‘win’ is as yet undefined. ”
Ha ha ha!! What absolute rubbish.
You define what a ‘win’ in this situation is then
Not my job. It’s not my fault that your leader invaded a sovereign nation in a deluded attempt to reinstate the Soviet Union and has failed at every level.
How’s your Mandarin coming on ?
Dead rapists, destroyed Nazi rape wagons, total distrust of the oligarchy, dead head sheds/CEOs from various Russian corrupt organisations, proof of Russias inability to wage a successful modern war, strengthening of NATO and the infighting of Putins Fascist Government. How about that as a good definition of a win?
They haven’t tried it yet? Ha ha ha ha ha ha haaaaaaaaahaaaas! They haven’t tried it yet? You clearly have absolutely no fucking idea what a combined arm’s operation is! This is the 21st century, they haven’t tried it yet! They invaded a sovereign nation, with no clue or training about combined arm’s operations! FFS it’s not something you try you dipstick, it’s something you train for, for fucking years! OMG hilarious!
Strange thing to say…”It is clear that the Russians are not hung up on gaining territory unless it fits their objectives. Almost everywhere they are active they seem to be trying to get the UA to come to them, be it a counterattack or topping up defensive positions”. Firstly; what are the objectives? On day 1, Putin stated that, denazification, demilitarisation of Ukraine and the ‘protection’ of the Russian speaking people in the east of Ukraine was his priority. Ironically, Putin has moved his policies closer to national socialism than any other country since WW2. Didn’t Hitler invade many countries around Germany prior to the start of WW2 on the basis that there were German speakers situated there and they must be protected? Putin has used almost the same words relating to the Donbas! It is my subjective opinion that it is the Russians who need to denazify themselves. You say the Russians are trying to get UA to come to them: strange offensive strategy to just sit around in the hope that your opponent (who is trying to defend his homeland) attacks you. Your ‘win’ can only be a pyrrhic victory. Russia has lost so much and it will take decades to repair the trust between so many countries in the world and Russia. Let’s imagine that Russia takes the donbas, the perception of a ‘win’ will be spun to the Russian people but the world will see through this war as one of the largest failures of any state since WW2. This war is Russia’s Suez, where a once strong nation realises that it’s just a small fish in a big pond.
The Russians are excellent at fighting, they have no value on human life; they’re sho!te at Leadership and Logistics.
Peter
I agree – Russia does not know what to do from here. They know they are not winning but are not loosing either (except people, of which they have more than most). Russia can keep this up for a while yet. Biden needs to get on a plane to Russia. I know it’s probably beyond him, but the fallback (what’s her name – Harris?) has no idea. Someone with half a brain & military might behind them needs to make a move. Otherwise we will be still here this time next year.
I think it’s a massive presumption to think that the Russians can keep this up. Everyone seems to give them the benefit of the doubt based on what the soviets could do but Russias got bugger all industry left so I don’t know why. Their is a limit to how much crap from the 60’s they can reactivate.
Agree, Russia is effectively destroying itself.
That gave me a good laugh. Thanks.
What do you think the death of at least 200,000 young men is in a war of aggression….with a further 300,000 conscripts in a fight that will kill many of them..there is a good chance Putins war will kill or maim half a million young Russian men…that’s called destroying yourself. It nothing to laugh about it’s utterly and completely fucking tragic.
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its called a Country Killer, no young men to Breed then world becomes an better place LOL
There are going to be a lot of young Russian women soon looking for a husband or partner but there won’t be any young men anywhere to be found. Except in China where perverted policies of 1 child statehood have led to more men then women. We live in crazy times.
Not to mention all the young fellas who have left Russia to avoid conscription, a lot of them highly skilled
What? Russian combined arms operations? Yes totally agree, we’ve all been laughing for 12 months, glad you agree, good lad!
Russian combined arms… An AK + a shovel.
You are bad 😂😂😂
No one is going to let Russia out again. and with the EU switching markets of trade. Selling to poor 3rd world Countries wont keep it and its greedy simple leaders, next step any country that supports Russia gets Sanction. Grind that small narrow minded country into the dirt.
The truth can be funny sometimes!
“but Russias got bugger all industry left” but arguably more than us. Take ships, they are churning out icebreakers, submarines, warships, tankers, general cargo etc etc at a rate of knots. Or aircraft both civil and military. Or armoured vehicles of all types. Or cars, trucks and agricultural machines. Better still, they use mainly their own resources to do it with. Russia is a vertically integrated country, a bit like we used to be. But they don’t have the numbers of accountants/lawyers/consultants etc that we have that add wonderfully to GDP but not to a countries base wealth.
They never exported, to get a bit more profit, much of their manufacturing to the Far East as we and the US did.
Reactivating stuff from the 60/70s is both a red herring and an indication of just how complex and deep their systems are. In an emergency do we have the same ability? Could we in Britain even make a single new tank or fighter for example? They are both renovating and building new!
Then they have their oil/gas/agricultural export revenues pouring in.
We underestimate them at our peril.
Ummm well let’s look at their SSN building program….how many decades did it take Russia to build 4 Yasen class subs..30 years….how many 7000 ton surface combatants has Russia build in the last 30 years….that will be none.
OK so you want to look at submarines. First the 885 and 885M Yasen are not SSN they are SSGN. Leaving that aside in the last 10 years the Russian Navy has received
10 multi-purpose diesel-electric submarines pr. 636.3 “Improved Kilo”.
3 nuclear submarines, one pr. 885 “Ash” and two pr. 885M “Ash-M”.
6 strategic nuclear missile submarines, three project 955 “Borey” and three project 955A “Borey-A”.
1 special-purpose nuclear submarine pr. 09787 “Podmoskovye” (carrier of nuclear deep-sea stations)
1 special-purpose nuclear submarine project 09852 “Belgorod” (carrier of nuclear deep-sea stations and ocean multi-purpose system “Poseidon”).
This year another 885M and a 955A.
For comparison these are the figures for the transfer of submarines and warships (over 500 tons) by five-year plans:
2003-2007 – 3
2008-2012 – 9
2013-2017 – 23
2018-2022 — 35
And how many years did it take to build and commission the first 3 project 885s ? Over 500 tons…that is not warship construction that’s boats and everything… actual major surface combatants built and commissioned in the last 30 years has been
1) project 11540 x1 a 4400t frigate based on a 1986 design
2) project 11356R x3 4000t frigates based on Krivak hull design which is a 60 year old design
3) project 20350 x2 5400 ton frigates..the only true 21c design Russia has built…designed between 2000-2003 it took 20 years to build two.
so sorry but for major surface combatants Russia has build and commissioned 6 in 30 years and 4 of these as small 4000 ton frigates designed by the Soviet Union…
everything else is less that 1500 tons….
Russkie fetish fanboy troll! Desperate reply my little troll…….
his big problem is he does not even really use open source Intel in a balanced way…so he’s alway getting blown out the water..Russia building 23 surface warships between 2013-17….har har har….we can all actually just go and look it up….being as we like in a free country and all.
“churning out submarines” 😆
K-329 Belgorod – first laid down in 1992, commissioned 2022.
Only took them 30 years to churn that out…
They ran out of money and when they got some it went to the strategic deterrent weapons, the army and the airforce, the general purpose navy came last. The function of the Belgorod underwent big changes, starting as a cruise missile Oscar 2 and ending up carrying Poseidon torpedoes and at 30,000 tons it is big. So not really a typical case is it?
Ah so the money when into their “strategic deterrent weapons”…
that would be into the likes of the Satan 2 ballistic missile, which so inconveniently failed its test on the eve of Putin’s recent big rant/speech.
So you don’t think Belgorod is representative of the Russian Navy.. perhaps Admiral Kuznetsov then? 😆
Maybe unfair as these are all Soviet vintage…
For new surface combatants built since the collapse of the Soviet Union…?
Well 3 Admiral Gorshkov class frigates, and 9 Steregushchiy class corvettes and err… that’s it!
In the same time period, the Royal Navy built 10 Type 23 frigates, 6 Type 45 Destroyers, and 2 Aircraft Carriers.
And the USA laid-down and completed 68 Arleigh Burke class destroyers alone.
And again his silence and lack of a reasoned and knowledgeable response, shows his status as a nonce troll…..👍
I always find publicly indisputable facts are a fast way to shut down the outlandish claims/lies of trolls and propagandists. I can’t believe he’s so stupid to think I wouldn’t reply with the relevant details 🤷🏻♂️
Ran out of money! Ha ha haaaa you mean they ran off WITH the money! Nob Jockey supporter of rape, genocide and murder. Your lack of condemnation for this illegal invasion proves to all your agenda and status as a Nazi troll who still has a Jimmy Saville fixed it for me badge!
Russia does ok but keeps dreaming it’s a strategic country that has the same power and influence as the Soviet Union.
It has a large land mass and a medium economy. It would do ok if it didn’t have a leader who thinks it’s his job to invade countries and then won’t change his mind when it goes tits up. He’d rather have 100,000s of dead, injured people, terrorising millions more in his name.
Not all Russians are horrible people, granted a million or so nice ones left already.
Same as not all British people are nice. Just misinformed.
Well chugging them our in a Tomas the tank engine sort of way.
I suspect they intend to switch from attacking to defence once they have their defences built, with the idea of holding what they now have & looking for a Korea type solution. A dug in T62 is different to one out in the open. A Russian version of the Hindenburg line.
Russia can rebuild industry given enough time & their industry is not getting attacked other than by sanctions. The stuff they produce may not be particularly good, but it only has to be good enough. How long they can keep it up is unknown, but as long as the artillery shells keep flowing & neither side can get air superiority, its going to be a while yet.
I think you’re right… but look how well the Hindenburg Line worked. In a 9 day offensive against it, the allies took 36,000 prisoners, destroyed 380 artillery pieces, and resulted in the Germans requesting an armistice.
Once an army chooses to hide behind a defensive position, never to sally out, it gives the initiative to the attacking force. The attackers still need a much larger force, the classic ratio is 3:1, and will probably incur greater losses. But the time, place, and method of any action is the attackers choice.
If the logistics remain the same – the west supplying increasingly more powerful and advanced weapons and professional training, while the Russian army continues to diminish in what professionalism it had, then the outcome is inevitable. You don’t need a degree in operational research to forecast this.
The Russians only hope, a Trump or DeSantis, win in 2024.
That may work in the very east of Ukraine ( the bits with a lot of pro Russian partisan feeling) but for the rest…supply is not easy…static troops are at risk of encircling…and they will be living in a country that hates them…it will bleed Russia in the long run even more that it’s bleed them now….we all know what trying to hold even part of a nation in which the people dont want you there costs…with western arms and training in the mix….
Exactly, so even if Russia takes over part or all of Ukraine they will be as welcome as a fart in a space suit. Constant attacks, insurgency operations.
Russia will try to quell that in its usual method of fear, torture, murder and intimidation while presenting to the home and world audience that everything is brilliant.
The cost to Russia of trying to occupy with being massive in monetary and manpower, equipment.
The only end goal they can have is the same as the original goal, to install a pro Russian governments all over Ukraine.
There’s been to much blood spilt and hatred for that to be effective now.
“What remains of the international order”. The world as we knew it is finished. Blocs are now a paper exercise with even countries that remain in such scrambling to protect their own interests. Chinese ownership via crippling debt of so many countries is a sign of things to come. It suits China to have a weakened Russia, the less resistance in the east, the easier to exploit Siberian natural resources. Biden’s sick withdrawal from Kabul, the Greased Piglets failure to ensure the rights of Hong Kong? Both sent a clear message to Xi. Ukraine and Russia will be forced into compromise, that is after pointless death and destruction. As for “global Britain”? China has bought up South Africa, now Argentina so has its foot in the Atlantic door. In the mid east, Erdogan wants a new Ottoman “empire”, Israel is becoming, sadly, a dictatorship and Iran remains a theocratic dictatorship. Be honest, it is a buggers mess akin to all episodes in history before major conflicts ruined the lives of generations.
We have a memory of ‘the world ‘as we knew it’, so it is possible to recover. What we need is another Isabelle of Castile’ to sort things out 🙂
I disagree. Trust in the political process called “democracy” and its politicians is the lowest I have ever experienced in my lifetime. Recover to what? More corruption on all levels? Sadly, I think history throws up major conflicts to level the playing field, albeit with tragic consequences for ordinary people. The past incumbent of several Rumanian palaces found out the hard way how far people can be pushed. Military reservists in Israel refused to partake in exercises only last week. Time will tell I suppose, but after the lies exposed in the UK this past week? It may soon be open season for a host of people to settle differences.
As you say, trust in western democracies is at a nadir. We have made ourselves weak and vulnerable to economic and military competition from authoritarian regimes because we have decided that ‘liberal democracy’ is sufficient. It isn’t; it has to be informed by Christianity if our societies are not to self destruct be subverted or defeated by enemies.
..enemies within.
Within oneself. The war in Ukraine is a manifestation of Putin’s persecution complex.
Agreed.
Err…what “the lies exposed in the UK this past week”?!?!
Erm…for the simple-minded amongst us, try the new “Handcock Half Hour” and the WhatsApp revelations about government attitudes and actions towards the population over the supposed “pandemic”. Basically, you need to read, then think laterally (if possible) and stop flag shagging. Then ask yourself who you are today 🙄
Oh yes you’re the conspiracy theory fruitcake… Nothing in the WhatsApp messages disproves the pandemic was real and deadly. All they do is show that certain individuals in government have a crass sense of humour.
Before Ockenshit sold the WhatsApp messages to The Telegraph they had already been submitted for inclusion in the public inquiry. So they were already in the public domain as evidence.
It’s funny how some people today, seem to equate paranoia with ‘lateral thinking’. Thankfully it’s still a small minority of the population suffering this delusion.
Constant amusement as always thanks. Your pro gooberment and establishment views, belief in legacy media, and “loyalty” to a very flawed system show what you are. As for Ms. O? Doing a journo’s job. Carry on drone, the truthful Tories need your vote 😂
And I think you proved your paranoia right there with that deranged rant.
Not a huge fan of this government, I could reel off a long list of blunders and decisions I disagree with. But they’re still far better than the shambles opposite despite Starmer’s spin…
If by ‘establishment’ you’re referring to the ‘scientific establishment’ then yes I believe it’s guiding principles of experimental testing of hypothesis, requiring reproducibility of results, and peer-review, etc, etc. It’s thanks to that ‘scientific establishment’ born out of the Enlightenment that we enjoy modern technology and engineering. If you don’t believe it in, then you’re perfectly free to go back to living in a cave, leading a hunter-gather lifestyle, and wiping your arse with your bare hand.
Oakenshot has done nothing other than self-publicise herself. All the WhatsApp messages were already in the public domain as they’d been submitted as evidence to the public enquiry.
But facts aren’t your strong point and reality not something you have a strong grasp on.
💘
Oh dear, he is another who answers facts and knowledge with a nice emoji, confirming to all he has no answer! But, I’m sure in his mind he is right…… good old Stotty, never got COVID you know, fit and healthy, all a Tory plan you know……
Sean understands emojis better than objective/questioning narratives. Actually tech has some great ideas for communicating to the feeble-minded flag shagger.
Feeble minded conspiracy theorists! Much worse!
As a conspiracy theorist you’ve proven yourself to be as feeble minded as JohnInMk. I’m surprised you’re not cheering on Putin with him, most of your conspiracy theory friends deplore western assistance to Ukraine…
Legacy media? In all seriousness I’m interested in what now will replace legacy media, who is legacy media and whoever replaces it, how are claims, facts and information proved and checked? Genuinely interested in your thoughts on this one Stotty my lad! But please, please don’t say online……..god forbid!
If, just if you are interested. Legacy media is what enabled The Orange Man and Greased Piglet. Very little objectivity in TV or “newspaper”. Usually very left-wing, or “right-wing”. When debate is shut down, people canceled ( some very well qualified and knowledgeable) Same as is happening in Russia now, only that can be fatal and quick. Well, that is when millions of people turn to what you might call alternative media for a form of truth. If your precious media had done its job, forty-odd thousand old people might not have died alone without family. They died because of Handcock and his arrogance, because the journos, doctors, and others who questioned were ridiculed by? Yup, what passes for media. That’s one example. This proxy war is another, as has been the dropping bombs on brown people wars. It is called propaganda. And people sadly swallow it because they are manipulated easily. Only when questions are asked ( and we see that on this “news” site daily ) I could go on of course but that makes “Sean” and others rabid because they will not think outside of the box. Final, and fin. I work with vets on a voluntary basis now, and after many years in mental health, and various uniforms myself, one thing is apparent. Even a majority of ex-service people have no trust in what passes for the press, and less so politicians. If you and others want to believe otherwise, fine. My experience tells me only people who feel threatened by an alternative view lash out. When “77” was used to bend the narrative, followed by a senior officer issuing a denial? That is when many really started to question. And finally the eccentrics/extremists. Corbyn, and even Abu Hamsa, they all have a right to question, and a right to their beliefs and values. I do not agree with many other views, but I accept the individual right to hold them and talk about them. See, that’s what many of us thought we were defending, so we gave up a big chunk of our life. Then some seem to have lost that principled view. Maybe it was a bump to the noggin jumping out of a Dak instead of a C130 😘
Ok, thanks for the rather extensive reply, which turned into a bit of a party political broadcast, but I will ask the question again, what/who will replace this legacy media you dislike so much? Where will we all get the information from?
Yeah, a party political broadcast by the monster raving loony party 😆
Yup you’ve completely gone down the rabbit hole haven’t you? You probably don’t know how utterly insane you sound to the vast majority of the population.
The right to free speech ensures you don’t get put in jail for saying what you want. But cry “fire” in a packed public place when there is none, and you can expect consequences. Slander or libel an individual and if they have the finances, don’t be surprised at finding yourself in court.
Spout lies and dangerous disinformation during a time of emergency, such as a pandemic, and don’t be surprised if there are consequences.
Because with rights, such as free speech, comes responsibilities. The first most obvious one, is not to misuse that right.
And that’s what you do. With your irresponsible claims that have no basis in fact whatsoever.
Yes I don’t think outside the box of sanity. I hope you get the psychological help you so clearly require.
He’s bought a pair of Piers Corbyn used panties for £200, these conspiracy lovers, maybe he thinks the left and Labour would have been so much more effective and “honest” in the pandemic….but no worries, he is waiting for the conspiracy calendar coming out, 12 glossy pages of Piers Corbyn in various “guises”…..
Oh Piers Corbyn – ran into one of his pathetic demonstrations; a mammoth 6 people in attendance 😆
He really does look as deranged in real life as his photos….
Sadly, while there are conspiracy nutters like on the left, there seems to be even more on the far right. (Which I find embarrassing as a free-market capitalist myself…)
Labour would have course been an unmitigated disaster during the pandemic with Jezza Corbyn as PM…
Thank god Bojo won in 2019.
BTW – if you check out Piers on Facebook he seems to be penniless, and is constantly pleading for people to buy his long-range weather forecasts… He’s a climate-change denier too.
I doubt he’d do any better selling his used undies 🤣
Libertarian, so according to some, anything from a fascist to a racist. Depends on what the Daily Mail tells them to think.
Ah that legacy media again, very naughty media!
U.K. population: 67,500,000
Daily Mail readers: 800,000
You come up with these mad cap conspiracies about media controlling the population and yet you’re too lazy to spend 60sec to bother to find out the extent of their actual reach.
Flag shagging….yaaaawn, please Mr Piers Corbyn can I have your autograph, your so on the ball!
😂 Told you afore, stomkop.
Try harder please, thanks!
I suspect it’s been a long time since John has been able to get hard at all… 😆
Agreed.
I agree Russia was utterly foolish and picked the wrong geopolitical enemy. The west was in-fact never it’s enemy…but Putin needed an easy enemy he though he could manipulate..he thought the west weak and easy to manage…pissing china off would have lead to a lane war Russia was always going to loss…the west would never invade Russia back…
The problem is I think china has always planned to take the Russian far east. It needs land to grow food and due to climate change this will become critical within 50 years..Putin has weakened his nation and made an generation enemy of the only power block that could defend Russia against China…
As for Chinese hegemony..agree I think we have slept walked into close parity with china and allowed a lot of industrial capacity to be moved to China…China has latterly pissed all over the west using what is a brilliant mercantile strategy…placing the west into a cannot win if we do cannot win if we don’t set of scenarios….what is worse is the west still refuses to acknowledge this and that it needs to do something radical that’s going to cause pain.
People fail to recognize the effect of Dugins’ thinking on Putin. The death of his daughter I feel contributed to Putin’s increased paranoia. And, the expansion of Nato eastwards, all made this inevitable. China has a rival in India and Modi though, so yes you are right, expansion into Russia will be the objective. China saw weakness in the inaction over Hong Kong and the withdrawal from Kabul. If the US does not intervene in Taiwan? The fate of the west is sealed, a marginalized part of the world with a dependency on China for goods. Failure by any western nation to act on the Uiger issue, the origin of Covid, all add to Peking knowing it is a matter of time before a Han empire encompasses a lot of the globe.
Your view that we are only a few steps away from what you described can easily apply the other way. Those countries listed are only a few steps from free, fair democratic leadership.
“”Why Russia has had such a disastrous 12 months””
Didn’t carry out the 7 Ps.
Proper Planning and Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance.
I suspect the corrupt Russian officers who have creamed off money meant for vehicle maintenance, thought Putin was just posturing when he threatened Ukraine. Or they thought it would be a 3 week war. Putin has poured money into the Russian armed forces for the last 15 years & believed the reports that they were fighting fit. Bit like Hitler looking at his units for the Battle of the Bulge. Looked mighty on paper, but many of those units had lost their best men killed or captured, & the numbers made up by old men & boys.
Mind you, how many Western Armies have enough ammo & spares to fight a year long, full on war nowadays? Any spare money should go into restocking, & perhaps some new machinery for our arms factories.
“”Drawing a parallel with the Second World War “”
That’s very interesting, in the run up to WW2 The Red Army had a total of 18700 serviceable tanks On the Western front the Red Army had 28 mechanised Corps in the 5 border districts with a total of 10688 of which 83% were serviceable. On paper a formidable force, however compared to the German Tank Diversions the Soviet mechanised Cops were tank heavy with insufficient infantry and artillery support. (Sound familiar today)
The Red Army concentrated six mechanized Corps with 2200 Tanks on its Western Front to defend the Bialystok salient (The border between Germany and Russia inside Poland 1939) which included 114 KV1 tanks and 238 T34s. General Dmitri Pavlov who was instrumental in Soviet Tank design during the late 1930s was placed in command of the Western front and committed all the armour under his command to a infantry support role (again sound familiar) apparently he was in Kyiv at the theatre when an urgent signal was brought to him from Moscow stating that Berlin was about to invade, instead of rushing back to Poland and taking command , he continued watching the show, huge mistake, and a rudderless Soviet army inside Poland was quickly swept aside and which saw Stalin have Pavlov executed (Sound familiar today)
The Red army tank brigades in Aug 1941 were comprised of 3 Tank Battalions with a total of 91 tanks and a motorised infantry battalion . However as Soviet tank losses mounted and industry couldn’t replace them, that was shrunk in Sept to 2 tank Battalions with 67 tanks and by Dec to 46 tanks and the infantry battalion omitted (sound familiar today)
Whilst the Red army was huge, Soviet armoured tactics were very basic , simply because the level of training was so low (sound familiar today) Tank units were taught to attack in line in which to simplify command and control which saw tanks in very dense formations with no more than 5 metres between them
Soviet military doctrine subscribed to a scientific approach to military problems (Think Rocky 4) If an attack failed with heavy losses . Soviet Political Commissars blamed commanders for not following the playbook. None of the officers who commanded the Red Army’s mechanised Corps in June 1941 had been in position for more than a year. Some 58% had no prior experience with Tank or mechanised units and 16% had no prior experience At the Company and Platoon level most junior officers were the product of hasty training and few could read a map or direct more than a few tanks in battle.The rapid expansion of the Red army between 1940 to 41 saw thousands of conscripts sent to six month tank training schools, however they were still in the pipeline when Hitler came a knocking bearing gifts. Few crewmen were cross trained on other crew functions , which resulted in huge difficulties to replace causalities (Sound familiar today)
One of the many deficiencies of the Red army’s mechanised forces in June 1941 was the lack of effective radios, where German tanks had one per vehicle, with the red army they were only fitted to company or battalion commanders , whilst the Russian army of today does have them fitted to their tanks, the fact that everybody went to war with Chinese walkie talkies mirrors the state of affairs from 1941 (Sound familiar today)
Its obvious , that the Russian army in Feb 2022 whilst equipped with much more modern equipment , was in a very similar position faced by the red army 81 years previous. Such as each tank in 1941 was only allowed 25 hours a year to train , 10 of which set aside for parades. And then people wonder why Moscow has made a right hash of things.
Think I’m correct; British Army in NW Europe was similarly organised with one infantry battalion to three tank in each Armoured Division and how did that work out in Goodwood? Generally the PBI had a hard time of it in the Bocage and always never enough of them and poorly equipped. The American Armoured Divisions had three combat commands two with tanks. Three battalions of Infantry.
Jonno,
Thanks for that, but the point I was trying to make, is whilst Russia is just as capable of knocking out equipment on a technological par with the West (Usually much more) , its political structure remains wedded to a system where nepotism, cronyism and endemic corruption ensures that the worse person for the job will get selected over someone based on merit which as we have seen has resulted in the total emasculation of the Russian armed forces, which until feb 2022, was deemed to be a force to be reconned with. But what makes this even worse, is the very faults which the Red army faced in 1941, are the same faults the RU miltary has faced this past year.
Just reading Robert Forczck’s ”Red Steamroller’ (1943-45). Very good read. Tho I think he overestimates Russian ability. Too me Russian numbers still won it for them (tho they did improve somewhat strategically and operationally during the war but not to the extent the book postulates).
The key point is I think that mass production (of basic but decent tanks – mostly T34’s) and mass mobilisation are what won it for Russia. But even when the Russians had overwhelming superiority (and German units were threadbare) they still took enormous casualties. This strongly indicates that the Russians were still in many ways remarkably inefficient.
Which leads us to Ukraine in 2023. Russia now no longer has the capacity to mass produce units as it dis in ww2 so all it is left with is an poorly equipped and incompetent military that will continue to suffer heavy losses. Not a war winning formula.
most of the locals were on the Russians side as well which helped, in regards to behind the line sabotage
The UK’s ammunition stockpile is at “dangerously low” levels due to the Ukraine war, MPs have warned.
Rebuilding the UK’s diminishing stockpile of munitions after the conflict could take at least a decade, putting British security at risk, they say.
The Commons Defence Committee said the UK and other Nato allies have allowed their reserves of ammunition to fall to “dangerously low levels” as they look to keep Kyiv supplied in its defence against the Russian invasion.
Hi George,
As I have pointed out in the past, the Ulrainians are using as much ammunition in a week that NATO (inc the USA, I believe) can produce in a month. Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out where that leads – although is seems it takes a war to point it out to NATO politicians… They’re all a bunch short sighted fools (I’m putting politely).
The UK’s armaments industry has been decimated over the last 20 to 30 years, so much so the Ajax recce vehicle is being built in a forklift truck factory…
Cheers CR
The US is in the process of ramping up production of 155mm artillery shells from about 14,400 per month to 90,000 rounds per month within two years and is spending billions to do it.
Hi Daniel,
Thanks for that little nugget and it highlights the challenges facing NATO countries. Two years and billions to effectively ramp up to a war footing on one caliber (OK it is peacetime). I believe the UK doesn’t produce any artillery ammunition these days..! Nuts..!
Cheers CR
CR wrote:
“”I believe the UK doesn’t produce any artillery ammunition these days..!””
The Uk MOD is supplied with 155mm shells (As well as 105mm and 81mm mortar shell) from it’s Washington plant (North east England) and production was increased last Nov:
Ah, thanks for that Farouk, I was under the impression that we had shut the plants down…
My mum’s side of the family come from the North East, but I wasn’t aware of a plant in Washington. Thanks for the link.
Cheers CR
Ah, but what goes in the shells? Are we (the UK) still not making explosives?
John wrote:
The shells from Washington are sent to ****** where they are filled with a mixture of RDX/TNT. Its a stand alone site well in the middle of nowhere where they have been producing explosives since 1938
Yep, know a few people who work there. there been quite a bit of investment over the years. Also BAE have Radway Green which is producing small arms ammo
The explosives for RAF Paveway IV, are made in Italy.
GDUK is the my favourite MOD raw nerve at present. Perhaps we should be thanking Putin for giving our delusional peace dividend believing politicians a wake up call. Lets see if they open a munitions factory and a tank production plant in the coming months. We veterans need to keep kicking the political class where it hurts.
I feel another letter to the Telegraph coming on ho ho ho.
I am fortunate to own a first edition of Ledwidge’s excellent book ‘Losing Small Wars – British Military Failure in Iraq and Afghanistan’
The senior ranks of the British Army made very similar errors, particularly in Iraq. One hopes that the training courses available at Army HQ Andover now reflect the lessons learnt
Does your hindsight written book describe what ‘winning’ would be like? The issue was political not military. In military terms the Taliban were defeated until Irish Joe chucked in his hand (without telling anyone as per U.S. doctrine passim). Iraq was run into the ground by a man who should have stayed President of some exclusive Californian country club. Our bloke in Baghdad had a brain the size of small factory and was studiously ignored. In Oman, Brunei, and Malaya before it, the Brits got the politics right.And succeed.
I suggest that you read Ledwidge’s book before you pontificate about modern wars that you clearly know nothing about.
The issue in both Iraq and Afghan was that the politicians did not set clear objectives, nor did they express the results that they wanted from the Army’s deployments. In Helmand particularly, the two year rotation of the top command resulted in no strategic or even tactical continuity.
Why? It’s never stopped you. This country never set any objectives in either conflict.
It never fails to amaze me how so many look upon Iraq and Afghasntan as military failures. Err no, Militarily the job was done, but then Human rights imbued political elites get to dictate policy such as if Terry fires a weapon at you and then drops that weapon you cannot shoot him, If terry wants to grow drugs, then there is nothing you can do about it, if Terry wants to rodger little adbul up the poo shute, that is their culture and there is nothing you can do about it. If Terry murders a woman and her family, there is nothing you can do about it. When you tie the hands of the military with stupid rulings (There was a case where a Danish female Sgt was sent home in disgrace from Afghan because she shouted at a Afghan) then don’t expect them to cower the otherside. Kind of reminds me of an incident a few years back, where a friend and I were visiting a art gallery. As we were walking around we started talking about what books we were reading I came out with “Six Days of War: June 1967 by Michael B. Oren” Out of nowhere this straw hatted, striped jacket wearing geezer (bigger than me I should add) stuck his oar in and started lambasting the Jews (not Israel the jews) I think he presumed that due to my skin colour, I would have supported his POV. I made the huge mistake in trying to correct him in a polite civil manner. He was having none of that raising his voice , waving his hands around resulting in everybody looking in our direction, so I shut up and we both walked away. Once everything had quietened down, I walked back and asked him, if he wanted to settle our argument outside. He looked down at me with disdain and replied “I’m a lawyer!” I simply replied “Lawyers bleed too, so want to step outside” At this, he realised that he had picked the wrong bloke to argue with (You know the kind your mum told you never to sit next to on the bus) and uttered no. I left it at that and walked away.
Nice one Farouk. I thought my final tour in Afghan was a success. I was embedded with the Canadians. Part of my mission was training the local Afghan Army. Some of these men, could not read, yet they were willing to put their lives at risk by putting on the National uniform. They were eager to learn, but reverted to type when in contact, i.e. all bunching together then spray and pray on full auto. No matter how many times we showed them, the majority reverted to type. I’m not sure why, was purely down to a lack of education, cultural or something else!
I was apoplectic when the Yanks disgracing pulled the rug from under everyone’s feet. There were quite a few that I got on well with, who had really developed and we earmarked as NCOs. Sadly I have not heard from any of them, so can only guess the worst for them and their families.
After the invasion of Afghanistan, one thing the politicians seriously got wrong, was underestimating the resolve of the Afghan people. The softly softy approach did work, but only after a show of force was needed to suppress the Taliban. Where locals felt free to explore what the West could give them. However, bigotry was a massive problem, especially if a man lost face to woman. Even if that woman was in uniform. They couldn’t get their heads around women in authority, let alone seeing them armed. There were many meetings where the tribal elders/leaders would simply just walk out, when we had a women with us. By the end of my tours I was seeing a lessening and a reluctant acceptance that we had women working with us. Which I believe, led to better treatment of their women. Alas, the Country is back under the leash of the Taliban, so it we regress to what it was prior to the invasion. Which is sad, as when I was there they were making progress at becoming more modern.
Your experience and perspective is appreciated. The bottom line is people have to be prepared to fight for their own freedom. Unfortunately the Afghans lay down their arms. You can’t fight forever wars, at some point the locals have to decide if they want a modern future and are prepared to fight for it. Ukraine is an aposit example.
Well said DaveyB. The real disaster when the Americans capitulated and pulled out was the $billions worth of modern weaponry and hundreds of tons of ammunition that they left behind for the Taliban.
It all looked so similar to the US pull out from South Vietnam. Many others said that at the time.
Silly question, but have they ever got any of it back by asking nicely? Sounds very risky leaving it all there for the Chinese and anyone to sniff over.
I would get moderated – yet again – if I told you what the Taliban are doing with it. But it is being sold off and it’s turning up all over the middle east
Thank you for your service Davy. Afghanistan has reverted to foundational Islamic values, something that many Islamists wish for in this country in truth. Pakistan was pulling the strings throughout the recent war 2001-2021. I am sure you know this. Pakistan wants an Islamist Afghanistan as a bulwark against Indian influence or control. It is geo-politics – The Great Game.
In the 60s (Cold War era) Afghanistan had moved confidently forward – though as with Iran, the peasants were very much a separate class. These images may interest you. Your mission was well thought through but badly served by geo-politics as usual. Many thanks.
https://allthatsinteresting.com/1960s-afghanistan
Also:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLIhulq76Ow&ab_channel=IshaFacts
Your welcome.
A story about Pakistan’s involvement in Afghanistan. I’m n Southern Kandahar is the Red Desert. This goes all the way down to the Pakistani border. Looking at a map you will see an area that sticks into Pakistan. In this area there is a small town. I won’t name it, but it is split either side of the border.
This town is one of the main places that poppy juice is refined into heroin. As part of a joint task force I was involved in raiding this town a few times. The mission being remove refined heroin, burn raw poppy juice and destroy the means of refining.
Let’s just say the missions were successful and we removed over 50t of refined product during my tour. However, the intelligence we received after the missions showed that the labs were back in use a couple of weeks later. This was purely down to propositioned equipment and material just over the border in Pakistan.
Pakistan would not allow the labs to operate on their side of the border. But we had actual video evidence that their border guards and army were directly involved in the rebuilding of the labs.
On one of the missions we managed to completely surprise them. Fired warning shots and they ran back over their border. Where they stood and watched us destroy their repairs. Plus driving a number of JCB tractors into the sticks, which were then denied by PE.
This went on for quite a few years right up to when we pulled out of Helmand. I am positive that this was state sponsored and not just a rogue General running things.
It is always best to speak to the people who do the job. Confirms my understanding. Why this country gives aid to Pakistan I cannot understand. A Pakistani friend, a retired trader, told me not to give to the flood appeal. ‘The money will be stolen’ was his view in short.
I can only sympathise and congratulate you. The educated can be a worse pain than any saloon bar loud mouth because he doesn’t do it for a living.
Thanks Farouk.
I too have been pissed off at people (many of them American senior officers but also quite a few UK civvies who lack knowledge) claiming that our armed forces failed in Iraq and Afghanistan. I have been proud of my service in Afghan (Nov 08-May09). The politicos did keep changing the goalposts – the mission seemed to start off right after 9/11 as being to capture or kill the AQ leadership in the Tora Bora caves complex, grew to include sorting out AQ in Kabul, then Helmand, meting out some offensive action against their Taliban backers, then to training and mentoring the ANA, to doing Provincial resonstruction etc etc. Mission creep – all the time…and failing to put enough manpower in to do the job. Embarrassing that Obama had to surge US troops into Helmand because we did not have enough troops there – we needed an Inf Div(+) in Helmand (an area the size of Wales) and had instead a third of that.
US senior officers dissed our work in Iraq as they did not understand the NATO mission and also could not accept that we don’t just do ‘gung ho’/fire from the hip’ all the time, but have a range of response options to a developing situation. We soldier with intelligence – they did not.
Great dit about the crazy lawyer.
RE ‘the Taliban were defeated until Irish Joe chucked in his hand ‘
Please correct me if I am wrong but I think the timeline is as follows:
Trump is elected after electoral interference from Russia;
Trump tears up two hard won international agreements, for little apparent reason other than the skin colour of the President who signed them;
The Democrats make criticism of this a major plank of their opposition;
Trump tries to get a deal with North Korea and fails;
Trump does a deal with the Taliban that is so bad it faces opposition from the combined Chiefs;
He presents this as a triumph and his supporters fall for it;
In the election Biden is pressed into agreeing to honour it after four years of criticising Trump for dropping deals;
In power Biden finds out just how awful the deal is but has to honour it;
He delays withdrawal by six months to give the regime as much chance as possible, which has the Taliban livid;
He eventually goes through with it and what a surprise, Trumps deal is bad.
You blame Biden for this?
Hello Chris. Not Mr Biden but his advisers. We don’t know what information he was given on how the evacuation was to be achieved.
You may have missed this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64897424
The actual withdrawal was full of tactical errors I agree.
Given the long standing agreement I am puzzled by that. I suspect the military had been holding on to the hope he would withdraw from the deal. Then they had to put together a withdrawal plan quickly when they realised he felt he had to honour the agreement.
Western weapons supporting a determined population intent on saving their Country is a problem for any invader.
That sounds very familiar…. Long live 🇺🇦
Cheers for this George. There is another strategic angle that hasn’t been addressed, which may have a dramatic impact on Russia’s economy.
This is the perceived performance of Russia’s military equipment. The perception is that it is performing poorly, irrespective of the lack of training their operators have.
My thoughts are, this poor perception will have a knock on effect on their military export sales. Which then also slows down Russia’s ability to earn hard capital that will be used to pay for replacement equipment. Thereby delaying their ability to rebuild their forces after the outcome of the Ukraine War.
I assume that you are not including the products that have worked well like Kalibre, other missiles, SAMs and artillery of all types for example.
Not sure about the sales impact on “military equipment” either. The ‘flying turrets’ on the T-72/90 is not new news and hasn’t stopped them from being the most popular tank out there. We wait to see how the Leopards etc perform to give a comparison. As to BMP/BTR etc etc they seem to be working as expected, again when the Bradley/Striker etc get to the front we will have a comparison. No doubt logistics trucks are performing similarly but although they are the most populous vehicles out there we rarely see them.
What will slow their ability to earn foreign currency will be the switching of all production to domestic use, starving foreign sales.
Yeah Kalibr… undoubtedly the weapon of choice for destroying hospitals, schools, civilian housing… all of which being unlikely to have anti-missile defences.
Fact is when you even compare the test performance of for example the much hyped Satan 2 missile with even North Korea the latter has re markedly had far great success and reliability as any research into the launches will show. As for hypersonic ship based Zircon missile launches it has been shown that some of the released film almost certainly show a missile identical to its predecessor Soviet design which has shown appalling accuracy in Ukraine and includes elements that make it unsuitable for hypersonic flight so who knows what state that missile has truly attained beyond the bluster.
Yes I remember Ryan Air advertising it was the Country’s most popular airline even as it was collecting more user complaints than any other airline year after year. There is a substantial difference between ‘popular’ and ‘numerous’ as many other significant factors come into the equation cost, bribery, political influence, ‘financial offsetting’ and economic pressure being but a few. Russian gear is always going to be cheaper than Western alternatives while as India has shown confidence in committing expensively to its ‘hi tec’ gear is hardly solid.
One thing I will say is SAMs are a strong point in Russian weaponry don’t think anyone can deny that it’s kept the airforces of both sides very quiet and has a long history that focused Russia on neglecting much else in perfecting its effectiveness going back to the 60s. Artillery I am rather more surprised to hear mentioned for its performance by most calculations has been appalling considering Russia can field comparable numbers to the rest of the World outside of China and NK put together. If it had anything like the utility and quality of the Western equivalents it’s not Rocket Science to determine that this War would have been won months ago. Fact is with few exceptions the philosophy remains that of the two War Wars and indeed Chechnya use inaccurate projectiles in large numbers to flatten a given area killing large numbers of civilians and demoralising the enemy. That simply hasn’t worked here and again it may be significant that India is far more interested in acquiring western artillery or producing its own. I suspect there will be greater efforts if it can afford it in Russia to try to change that philosophy and improve its qualities nature but much of it will rely on technology it can’t produce itself so either smuggled western parts or a total reliance on China will be required over the board to achieve such goals. Neither are rosy scenarios for consideration.
OMG you aren’t serious? The flying turrets on your Nazi nonce machines were always suspect and indeed were shown to be liable to do one in Syria! As for not stopping them being the most popular tank out there, that was before this debacle of a Nazi invasion of Ukraine and the proof of the low flying turret! Leopards won’t do the flying turret display as the ammo/charges are stored totally different you dipstick, in a blow off compartment or in liquid charge containers (as per Chally)! Even a Russian troll like you can research that online!
And BMP and BTR are working as expected, yes you are correct, they drive around without the ability to use ground or tactics, drop off a squad of untrained rapists, and then they all get destroyed/killed! As expected, totally agree, but not sure your head shed will like you saying that and agreeing with us! Good lad.
The least of their economic woes that are increasing month by month. It is down all the way from here. But you are correct; militaries around the world will be studying this conflict and the Russian performance. The only club in their bag is attacking power plants and civilians. A resumption of a war of manoeuvre would simply lead to more catastrophic losses.
Simple fact is ‘good enough’ is often attractive to militaries especially when the opposition they are likely to face are hardly advanced. Price, numbers (esp on parades) and other factors then take priority.
Those militaries that you mention will have access to what has actually happened in terms of performance. Any comment here, inc mine as I’ve said before, is educated guesswork probably based on biased information put out by both sides, including misinformation.
Nope! You claim your knowledge is from months and years of studying Russian mil and Ukraine since 2014….do you want me to cut and paste those statements by you for us all to see troll boy! Some comments on here by others, is from subject matter knowledge and experience! So don’t presume to claim you know where others knowledge comes from!
Ukraine needs to be able to hit some more ships and subs and at a distance. Hope there’s some land based/air launched AShMs, torpedo’s (helicopter launched?) and more drones on the way to them. As well as all the other promised stuff. Hope they can bulldose the Russian forces completely out of their country as they have no moral right to be there.
My thought was to what extent have the Polish Migs been updated to exploit Western weapons and sensors and I guess a more nebulous follow up is how much of that would remain as and when they are passed over as seems inevitable. Are these aircraft already fitted out to employ long range weapons of various types be they anti aircraft (Aim 120 for example) or anti surface of whatever type? It seems there is work going on to fit Aim-120 to Ukrainian Aircraft exploiting the pylon interface created for the Harm missiles which certainly had help from original Polish adaptations be it without the Western tech the Polish aircraft exploited to do so on their aircraft. So maybe the first part of my question has already been answered in the affirmative.
At the start of this, I went for the theory that Russia would overwhelm Ukraine with sheer numbers. I did not however, expect Russia to employ mercenaries, to shoot conscripts who were too shit scared, and turned tail.
Those particular tactics were employed in WWII. It could/would have worked against Ukraine, had not the West stepped in, and scuppered pukin’s plans.
I really hope that the whole sorry war ends later in the year, with Russia being completely crushed by Ukraine. Why so brutal? I still believe that crushing the Russian government and its military, will result in a (fairly) peaceful stable Europe again, whilst sticking two fingers up to China, and North Korea, by telling them to back off, otherwise the entire world will turn against them.
I’m torn.
We might see Russia as this constant threat to stability and world order that needs taking down and indeed the Ukraine who has so much in common with Russia would be a great choice for doing so.
Russia needs ripping apart and rebuilding, but, not the Russia of today; there needs to be several States however, that would lead to Chinese expansion as they took down the newly formed States like skittles.
Then the UN would need reforming, but, who can say how? Should Germany be a PMSC, or India?
World order is under threat at the moment and we are not doing enough to end this conflict by giving the Ukraine the weapons they need.
If Russia was facing being “ripped apart” it would only happen over our dead bodies.
FFS Yaaaaaaawn
What about the fall of the Soviet Union? We survived that didn’t we. This is Putins war. He made the catastrophic error of invading a sovereign country. Let’s be honest here; if Putin were a democratic leader, he would have gone by march last year.
https://wavellroom.com/2023/03/10/t90m-are-appearing-on-the-eastern-front/
Well worth a read.
That’s pretty damning isn’t it not only in respect of claimed tank production but Russias overblown claims generally. Interesting that T90Ms have been knocked out by AT-4s. It’s a useful lightweight but hardly state of the art weapon that wasn’t even designed to take out Main Battle Tanks certainly unless it could locate a weak point. Not sure how indicative of modern tanks that is, Russian tank design itself or simply how they are being used. Big questions to be answered all round post war I feel. Either way the article sums up a real problem for Russia they can certainly produce some good high end weapons, certainly at least in limited numbers, but only at the expense of struggling with quality and in particular appropriate numbers of good quality basic weapon systems like tanks and artillery and any number of others. That’s only going to get worse now that they can’t easily obtains foreign parts and lost so many of its elderly back ups.
As for that captured intact T90M there was some debate that it had all of the sensors and equipment the manufacturer stated for it, or had older equivalents than those stated. Not sure if that was ever confirmed.
Over… OUR… dead bodies? So you a f.ing Russian.
Finally, the admission. Airborne will be delighted.
For goodness sake. Our dead bodies as in by that stage it will be WW3 eliminating much of if not all of human life, certainly here in the UK. Don’t know how far you are from a likely target but I’m about 5 miles.
Give yourself a tea break pal. Anyway as you are sat just 5 miles from a target, here in the UK, in MK, and as a 76 year old pensioner, with just an interest in Russian activities, then I sure it will be very easy to show your support, in the form of a comment on here, to the brave Ukrainian defenders, who are fighting to defend there nation from Putins illegal Nazi invasion……yes?
Russia not fail yet, but prime reason so poor perfomance is ther is no war campain, like us made 2003. or similar, they miss point u go to war or not. If you go to war you need troops, destroy all military and targets those that serve military purposes , with no mercy if u want to win fast….
It’s been the best 12 months for NATO. Putin awarded NATO’s salesman of the decade. Russian army shown as being poor. it’s air force ineffective and their navy about as useful as a spanish pedalo in the desert. They won’t admit it, but, China will think it’s just super that Russia is now very much under their thumb. I hope Putin has left enough of his military in the east to defend Vladivostok (also named Hashenwei by the Chinese). Ironic as NATO claims to Russian land are zero yet China has large claims to eastern Russian land including Vladivostok.