The UK is currently undertaking “detailed analysis to evaluate the scale and timeline” for a purchase of a second tranche of F-35B Lightning aircraft.
Jeremy Quin, Minister for Defence Procurement, stated:
“The 2021 Integrated Review confirmed our ambition to continue the growth of the UK Lightning Force beyond 48 aircraft. We are currently undertaking period of detailed analysis to evaluate scale and timeline for procurement of our second tranche of F35B Lightning aircraft together with associated infrastructure and support requirements.”
The United Kingdom recently made it “absolutely clear” that it will be purchasing more than 48 F-35 jets (now 47), according to a senior defence minister.
At a recent session of the Defence Committee. focussing on the Royal Navy, it was stated by Jeremy Quin, Minister for Defence Procurement, that:
“As you know, we are going to acquire 48. We have made it absolutely clear that we will be acquiring more. We have committed to have 48 in service by 2025, and we will be acquiring more. We have set that out in the IR. We will set out the exact numbers in 2025.
The 138 number is still there. That is a defined number and we are looking at keeping these aircraft carriers in operation for a very long period of time. I am not dismissing that number either. We know that we have 48 to which we are committed, and we know that we will buy more beyond that.”
How many are expected?
The former First Sea Lord said during a webcast earlier this year that the UK intends to purchase ‘around 60’ F-35B jets and then ‘maybe more up to around 80’ for four deployable squadrons.
A defence insider informed the UK Defence Journal of a live webcast given today by the First Sea Lord.
“The First Sea Lord has just said 60 F-35, then maybe more up to around 80 for 4 deployable squadrons.”
According to the Defence Command Paper titled ‘Defence in a Competitive Age’, the UK intends to increase the fleet size beyond the 48 F-35 aircraft it has already ordered.
“The Royal Air Force will continue to grow its Combat Air capacity over the next few years as we fully establish all seven operational Typhoon Squadrons and grow the Lightning II
Force, increasing the fleet size beyond the 48 aircraft that we have already ordered. Together they will provide a formidable capability, which will be continually upgraded to meet the threat, exploit multi domain integration and expand utility.
The Royal Air Force will spiral develop Typhoon capability, integrate new weapons such as the UK developed ‘SPEAR Cap 3’ precision air launched weapon and invest in the Radar 2 programme to give it a powerful electronically scanned array radar. We will integrate more UK weapons onto Lightning II and invest to ensure that its software and capability are updated alongside the rest of the global F 35 fleet.”
The total of 80 is welcome news given the speculation the buy could be capped at 48.
Why “(now 47)”? Are we not paying for the lost one now?
It does seem odd when talking about acquisitions. You could understand us buying an extra one more easily than buying one fewer. It depends on whether that commitment to have 48 in service by 2025 still stands.
We currently have 35 F-35 contracted, 24 of which have been delivered. 1 of that 24 has now been lost. So for the UK to hit its target of 48 at the end of 2025 it means that we need to order an additional 14 aircraft, rather than the expected 13.
Yes that has probably already happened. 6 are due for delivery next year and 7 in 2023, so the target will be hit in 2023 not 2025. The decision on final numbers will be taken in 2025, but a follow-on order is needed sooner. So a second tranche of maybe 12 is likely soon (13 including the attrition replacement).
No contract has been signed for the last 13 (or 14) a/c to make it to 48. Thats because they should be covered by the Full Rate Production pricing (FRP) agreement which has dragged on for an age and still isn’t signed….
We will not hit the delivery of 48 until December 2025 at the earliest….the recent and future deliveries have been ‘re-profiled’, partly due to Covid, Turkey’s exit and other issues. We were due 6 at the end of this year, only 3 arrived with the other 3 dropping into next year and a commensurate delay in next years deliveries.
Here’s the next deliveries…
2022 – 6 aircraft (3 from LRIP 13, 3 from LRIP 14) – 30 a/c total. Likely that the 3 from LRIP 13 will turn up before summer, the 3 from LRIP 14 will be at year end.
2023 – 5 aircraft (5 from LRIP 14) – 35 a/c total
Thats it….35 aircraft in total, including 1 ‘lost’ airframe and 3 test aircraft based in the US.
If we want aircraft delivered in 2024 and 2025 we need to order them in 2022 and 2023, the usual is a c2 year lead time from order to delivery. But we are totally dependent on the US JPMO sorting out the FRP pricing.
There never seems to be reference these days to procuring the F35A version for the RAF. Is that now a dead duck? Will both services only fly the B version? Probably a more flexible solution, I guess.
It was only ever RAF trying to get their hands on a dedicated fleet just for themselves. Endless floating of the idea to see if anyone bit…but the SoS for Defence has stamped on it, and with the Navy occupying the CDS chair, probably for the foreseeable as, uniquely, they seem to actually have decent leadership…its totally dead.
Wasn’t there a decision to switch to just the one type for all theatres?
The extra order would need to be made before 2025 IR, for deliveries between 2026-28.
I suspect from the comments by Radakin, there will be two follow-on orders – one up to 60 soon, and one up to 80 in 2025 if things go to plan.
Doubt it will be that soon. It needs to happen before 2030 as after that Tempest sucks the budget dry, but Typhoon radar and other upgrades, plus Block IV upgrade costs for the existing fleet will come first.
I expect we’ll order 12+ additional spread over 2026-2028 for delivery prior to 2030. I’m very sceptical of the 80+ number….can’t see any space in the budget for it…but I’d love to be pleasently surprised…80 would be perfect (72 is the minimum we should get, mid 90’s the highest….never mind about 138…)
It depdends how good Radakin is at getting efficiencies made in the other services and most importantly in MOD / DE&S. Also on what settlement follows on from the current four year spending plan which will expire at the end of 2024.
There is probably money for 12 in the current plan.
There is no money in the plan.
The MoD still has a colossal black hole in its Equipment Plan.
The only way they get access to more funds is by cutting other capabilities.
There is no black hole – it was filled last year. I don’t know why this nonsense comes up. The whole point of the £24 Billion settlment last year (which was largely for equipment) was to fill that hole and add more (the two settlments last year add up to £24 Billion before you say it was only £16 Billion).
To spell it out the black hole was £7 Billion (before cancellation of WCSP) as reported by NAO. The settlements last year were for £24 Billion. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/mod-faces-7bn-black-hole-132901381.html
One has been lost.
No, they’ve found it.
Fell off the end of one of our aircraft carriers
One fell into the sea.
@daniele will be making full use of his old spare sock!
? ! 😜
Not at his age.
On a serious point, with just teo platforms to concentrate on, it seems weapons capability is being improved. Hopefully, the grown ups can comment.
By the time Block IV upgrades have been completed, hopefully, to the full Lot 17 standard with enhanced EW capability across our entire fleet to avoid a ‘fleet within fleets’ issue we ‘should’ have more weapons available….
But given the demands of training, operational deployments, profile of aircraft deliveries and the need to pull aircraft in for different levels of upgrade (based on their age) that won’t realistically happen before 2027. By then we should have Asraam CSP, Meteor, Amraam D, Paveway IV, Paveway IV Penetrator and Spear available (with potential for Spear-EW and SpearGlide to arrive if we order them). Hopefuly we’ll find some funds to also order some gun pods as well…
That all sounds good…we’ll have, arguably, the best air to air munitions on earth. But its a little light on the air to ground munitions….Spear and Paveway IV are good, but they’re small, expensive and comparatively short ranged. We’re missing heavier, cheaper and longer ranged munitions…and specialist munitions like an anti ship missile.
Personally, I think a limited buy of US SDB1, JDAM GBU-32 1,000lber’s (all dirt cheap, already integrated on F-35 and with a bigger bang than Paveway IV and Spear) and about 50 JSM would really make a difference. After that we can afford to wait for whatever FCASW brings to the table for longer ranged, heavier strike.
Yes, I think keeping T1 Typhoon in service would have been a mistake if the option is to have more F-35, as both upgraded Typhoon T2/3 and F35 can integrate a range of new weapons. Mosquito drone will fly in 2023, and that is another option as both T2/3 Typhoon and F-35 can team with it and provide mass, whereas T1 Typhoon could not. We desperately need a low-cost precision guided bomb with plenty of warhead options for follow-up mass, and to arm Mosquito. The Alvina swarming drone must also be integrated at some point, and that too will require up-to-date platforms.
Bit of breaking news, Finland has confirmed that the F-35A will replace their F/A-18 fleet:
https://ilmavoimat.fi/en/-/the-lockheed-martin-f-35a-lightning-ii-is-finland-s-next-multi-role-fighter
A Total of 64 aircraft will be procured.
The F-35 keeps winning competition after competition.
Now for Canada, will the Canucks ever make their mind up?
Cheers,
64 is a pretty good number, especially for a country like Finland with Mother Russia next door. Will give the Russian’s something to think about. Didn’t the Swiss buy F-35’s as well recently?
Anyway, Canada just removed a new F-18 Hornet out of the competition to replace… their F-18 Hornet’s! (or CF-18 to be specific). This leaves just the Gripen E and F-35 left – looking at the current trend it looks lie the F-35 might have the edge. Any F-35 competition wins will have a positive effect on British Industry, so let’s hope more keep coming – not to say if Gripen win’s – that also would have a positive effect on British Industry as I think the Argie’s tried to buy them but were blocked as some components were British?
British content on Gripen is much higher than F-35…
What do you mean by ‘the UK’s’?
Because if you’re talking equipment made by UK owned companies, but not made in the UK you will hit 15%.
But if you’re talking ‘actually Made in the UK’ its between 5-7% of value.
For example…BAE Systems makes the very expensive Electronic Warfare system for the F-35…..in the US. Thats included in the 15%….
Rolls Royce makes the very expensive LiftSystem for the F-35B…..in the US (Pittsburgh)…thats included in the 15%….
Martin Baker makes the Ejection Seat for all models of the F-35…..at its factory in the US….Jonestown Pennsylvania…thats included in the 15%…
Survitec makes survival equipment for every F-35 variant….at its factory in the US….thats included in the 15%….
Once you’ve filtered those out you’re not going to be able to find 15% of every jet left in the UK manufacturing industry….or even close.
The 15% figure, bandied about by the MoD and LM for years, has been misconstrued by many people as ‘Made in the UK’ exactly as the PR people in the MoD intended it to be….it doesn’t stand up to the briefest scrutiny.
Some coin for UK coffers and a clear sign of Finland as a reliable partner.
The question is how their order is structured. The longer we dither and delay making decisions, the further down the queue our eventual order becomes.
… good things come those that wait… so they say.
Let’s hope so. Wars tend to happen when you least expect them, thanks to that being the most optimal timing to start one. Hopefully no war before we need them.
If the gamble pays off then we probably get them cheaper and more capable.
With you on that.
Canada have narrowed it down to Gripen E or F-35A. The RCAF will want F-35A, but the treasury will have a say.
The best fighter for the Canadians, would be the new semi stealth, South Korean twin engine fighter. Won’t happen of course.
The Boromae? is mainly made of American bits (engines, etc).
72 F35’s by 2030 to equip 4 squadrons and a small reserve fleet seems like a pretty decent and modest compromise. Enough to get 24 aircraft deployed with the CSG at least.
I think 80 would be a good number.
4 frontline squadrons: 48 planes
OCU: 8 planes
OEU: 4 planes
Spares: 20 planes
80 would be great but if that’s only a vague aspiration for the more distant future then 70ish would be a good compromise as 60 still isn’t really enough to generate a substantial/regular carrier air wing within the normal cycle of training and maintenance.
Two squadrons of F35A’s would be nice
Not for the U.K. it wouldn’t. Unnecessary costs and complications due to the differences between F35 types. But a moot point as it’s never going to happen.
Playing fantasy fleets, I would have all 3 F-35 types for the UK. 24 F-35A to replace the tranche 1 Typhoons in the RAF. At least 52 F-35B for the FAA. Remember the first 3 are early trials aircraft & not suitable for combat. Plus we have lost one. So you need at least 52 to have 48 to fight with. If QE/PoW can be fitted with advanced arrester gear, then having 8x F-35C on each carrier, in addition to the F-35B, the C gives greater range & weapon choice. The A & C can take heavier bigger weapons, such as B61-12, JSM, AARGM-ER, JASSM, JSOW, Bunker busters, etc. We do need drop tanks for all 3 versions of F-35.
I think this will be on the carriers at some point in time?
“Some defence analysts contend the rather limited range of carrier aircraft pushes the ships to operate closer to the adversary, making the ships more vulnerable to attack.”
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/air-platforms/latest/carrier-bush-prepares-for-additional-stingray-testing
And for a very good reason!
To be sure, China’s potential adversaries are aware of its ambitions to target ships at sea with ASBMs.
They have once again begun to train their navies to strictly manage their electronic emissions to evade China’s ISR collection assets. Within the South China Sea, however, the time when such basic countermeasures are enough may be dwindling.
While it may never be publicly known whether China’s 2019 or 2020 ASBM firings into the South China Sea were directed against mobile or fixed targets (or whether they were successful or not), the fact that the missile firings occurred at all so close to waters where commercial and naval ships often ply suggests that China was reasonably confident that its missiles would not hit those ships.
Of course, that does not imply that China’s ASBM capability has become operational—it does imply that it may be one step closer.
https://www.fpri.org/article/2021/05/chinas-anti-ship-ballistic-missile-capability-in-the-south-china-sea/
I watched an interesting video about the advanced versions of the F-14 offered to the USN. This was at the end of the cold war when many projects were cancelled. The USN was in the doghouse for spending $10billion on new stillborn designs that never entered service. They went for the Super Hornet as it was deemed the cheapest option. The alternative was new build Super F-14 with greater internal fuel & new engines. It would have had far greater range than the Super Hornet. This new F-14 Super Tomcat would have had precision strike as well as air defence capabilities.
Hopefully we’ve got some silo location intelligence on these ASBMs? Maybe these can be targeted pre-emptively or at least in a very quick response if need be.
Quite possibly, but that will not be an easy task given the modernisation of China’s highly mobile air defence systems like the new FK-2000 self-propelled air-defence system HQ-9 and S-400.
Area denial and the ability to strike back at ever-increasing ranges has become a real problem for the west to counter and still is.
“As per the deal, China has purchased 6 battalions of S-400. Each battery of China consists of a Mobile Command Center, different types of radars and 6 launchers. Thus, in total China possess 6 Mobile Command Center, around 12 radars and 36 launchers (6 × 6 = 36).17 Jun 2021″
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/05/24/china-hq9-missile-system-extreme-test/
This is yet another area China is modernising with greatly improved Radar technology and in numbers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cd6atwh3E98
This is also worth reading.
https://www.asianmilitaryreview.com/2020/09/china-edges-ahead-of-united-states-in-integrated-air-defence-land-based-missiles-and-naval-shipbuilding-dod/
How are you planning on flying both F35B and F35C off our carriers? 🤷♂️
The B needs the ramp for best weapons load, the C needs a catapult.
The RN thinks there’s space to fit a small catapult for UAVs far smaller than the F35. But there’s not room for full size catapult without major rebuild work to add an angled flight-deck.
Then there’s the need for greater spares storage due to the differences in parts between the B and C.
Finally, the only purchaser of the C is the USN. That would expose the U.K. to a huge risk is the USN had a change of attitude to what it wanted…
Fantasy fleets? My turn.
Another 3 QE carriers and 200 F35Bs. Plus Valor drones for air-to-air and AEW.
Quadruple the number of Astute’s too.
Oh and 16” guns on the Rivers! 😏
If QE/PoW can be fitted with Advanced arrester gear, then they would be STOBAR. Boeing tested a STOBAR F/A-18E Super Hornet for the Indians. Using that, I think the F-35C should be looked at to see if it can be STOBAR capable. If RN carriers had an airgroup of 20x F-35B + 8x F-35C, they would be formidable.
Right, and how many did the Indians buy?… Funny you mentioning the F18E given it has a smaller combat radius than the F35B.
If the carriers has 28 F35B’s they would be formidable.
Having both B and C types on board would be a nightmare:-
• increased parts inventory due to significant differences between them
• increased ground crew/ engineers to handle the differences
• potentially two sets of non-interchangeable pilots – those qualified on the B and those qualified on the C
And that’s assuming you can find a way to launch the C off the QE class given they have a ski jump for the B and no space for a full size catapult for the C unless you remove the ski jump.
The point is that both the B & the C would use the ski jump for take offs. Yes the C would need some extra software for that, but not impossible. Most modern agile combat jets can be modified for STOBAR. The Indians have been offered STOBAR versions of Super Hornet & Typhoon. They currently have STOBAR Mig-29K in service on their carrier. P&W have been offering an engine upgrade for the F-35. If we adopted that for this proposed F-35C it would probably make up most of the shortcoming from using a ski ramp rather than a catapult. The C has the same larger weapon bays as the A. So all those very handy precision weapons such as JSM, AARGM-ER, B61-12, JASSM, JSOW, bunker busters, become available. All the stuff that does not fit in the smaller F-35B weapon bays.
Then the C would nosedive into the water. The engine on the F35 (same on all variants) isn’t enough on its own to get it airborne on such a short take-off using the ramp. That’s why the B has a lift-fan.
Even if P&W are taken up on the offer of a new version of the engine (for ALL variants) and extra software for C to take-off from the ramp then you’re looking at another 5 years from now.
It’s not going to happen.
Fantasy fleets.
Radar 2 sounds like a very significant capability upgrade for Typhoon, do we know when Radar 2 will go into service? A combined force of F35 and Radar2 equipped Typhoons could be formidable. Can we have an article on Radar2 please?
2023 will be the first scheduled test flight of Radar 2 on Typhoon as I understand it.
80 has to be a bare minimum number needed to equip 1 QE carrier for strike mission (36 aircraft) plus another with a defendive / littoral warfare load of say 18 aircraft. Whilst then retaining some for close air support and strike fighter missions vs near peer/ peer adversaries by RAF.
80 is really a minimum serviceable number.
With a belligerent expansive PRC & Russia we must up all our forces. We need to be able to operate 24 from each carrier simultaneously plus whatever the RAF needs as a minimum. The peace dividend is long over & the effects of our love affair with austerity on our military has left Putin & Xi extremely confident to expand & bully neighbours.
Interesting that he specifically says “second tranche of F-35B Lightning aircraft”. Good news for the RN, and maybe the RAF has given up on idea of some F-35As.
1SL’s 80 aircraft seems to be derived from a target of 4 frontline squadrons each with 8 deployable a/c; an OCU of about 12 a/c; a test & eval unit of 3-4 a/c; the withdrawal from service of early build aircraft (9?) that can’t be economically upgraded to at least the Block 4 standard; plus sufficient reserves (20 a/c?) to allow for deep maintenance and attrition through to the likely 2050’s out of service date.
Even if the MOD buys just 3 new F-35B’s a year from 2025, we should hit the 80 target of aircraft by the mid 2030’s. However, given that one a/c has already written off, and the high probababiity that another 9 will have been retired by then, the actual strength will be a max of 70 aircraft.
If we order an extra batch of F35B, we need to do it relatively soon, it’s important to take advantage of USMC multi year contracts and leverage our orders into their buys.
The cost of the B, with its bespoke propulsion systems and structural assemblies will absolutely mushroom when Uncle Sam winds down the orders…..
The UK hasn’t even placed all its Batch 1 (48 a/c) orders yet, Batch 2 orders won’t happen until 2025+. The MOD doesn’t have the money in the equipment budget to speed this up without cancelling or defering another high cost project (FSSS? Ajax? Tempest? …). The F-35 production line seems safe well in to the 2030’s, and the unit price is on a downward path regardless of US multi-year buys. The MOD’s strategy has some logic.
The powers that be need to seriously get on with it and place this next order asap and even speed it up if necessary. Less faffing around and less posh waffle. Both carriers are waiting!
Placing the order today will not overly speed up delivery. But yes, LM would appreciate the heads up. Conversely, UK is not the only nation looking at more F35B. It’s the only Harrier replacement out there. At some point, Spain will have to go F35B or drop out of the aircraft carrier club. South Korea & Japan are likely to order more, as is Singapore. Australia has not gone away. Italy is on board.
The biggest problem is LM delivering what they promised in anything like a timely manner. Every F35 delivered now needs massive upgrades from day of delivery just to be current. Some existing aircraft are even being scrapped as the cost of upgrades are more than a new one. F35 is a fantastic aircraft, it’s also a lesson on how not to develop a military aircraft. Tempest is likely to be in production before F35 actually reaches full rate production.
The F35 is the end result of the X35 competition win which was in 2001. So 20 years later & it’s still in ‘development’. It still can’t support weapons that were designed for it like the JSM, that happily work on existing platforms. That’s not to say it can’t get there, but am pretty sure that every current fighter out there could be offering JSM compatibility before the F35 if asked to.
Seriously, F35 is likely to be 30 years old before it works as intended. Most people would be on their. 3rd car by then. We really should be talking about the F38 (or F35 block III).
See my post above and associated links, particularly the latter.
Something else to factor into the equasion which will require Block 4 software, now delayed once again until the later part of this decade as I recall?
“LONDON — The high costs of supporting F-35s and a failure to quickly integrate the MBDA Meteor missile to the aircraft could slow British plans to buy more of the jets, defence secretary Ben Wallace warned June 23.
Wallace told Britain’s Parliamentary defence select committee that he had the budget to buy more than the 48 jets the military has already ordered, but wanted to see progress controlling maintenance costs and fair treatment for integrating Meteor.”
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/06/23/two-reasons-britain-could-slow-its-purchase-of-the-f-35/
New NDAA Takes Aim at F-35 Sustainment Costs, Joint Program Office Dec. 10, 2021
“Sweeping changes could be in store for the F-35 program starting in 2027, if the latest version of the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act is approved.”
https://www.airforcemag.com/new-ndaa-f-35-joint-program-office-sustainment/
LM are really struggling with getting sustainment costs down to acceptable levels, never mind those quoted at the programmes inception.
Believe that this may end up being the programmes greatest issue for the foreseeable future and will probably determine the eventual USAF aircraft buy.
My, aren’t we the cheery sort!
Have to agree that Boza and his crew will be gone, and, if Tempest fails, we will buy F35A instead. We may even buy some if we are getting Tempest, but it’s delayed beyond 2035, when Typhoon starts to fall off the plot due to age.
PS, fully intend to have a great Christmas regardless, ta!
Yes, wouldn’t disagree at all!😂
Off your meds I see!
Drop all this damn advertising. It is a distracting bloody nuisance. Either be a defence journal or a cheap advertising board. You choose.
rgds,
chris cozens
Hi Chris, how do you propose we pay for the website without advertising?