Vladimir Putin has declared that he “has no regrets” regarding his special Ukrainian military operation.

This statement was part of another attempt to justify his invasion of Ukraine. On Tuesday 18 October 2022 General Sergey Surovikin, Russia’s new commander of the so-called special military operation, proclaimed that “Russians and Ukrainians are one people” and “we just want one thing, for Ukraine to be independent of the West and NATO and be friendly to the Russian state”.

The implication is that the goal is for Ukraine to become dependent on Russia. Nevertheless, one wonders how the indiscriminate targeting of Ukrainian citizens and civilian infrastructure by kamikaze drones supports a military objective intended to encourage Ukrainians to be friendly to the Russian state.

This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that Putin cannot afford to fail in Ukraine. Any failure would result in serious political consequences for Putin, but more importantly for the Russian Federation. Russia’s on-going failures in Ukraine have highlighted that the country has made major strategic errors over the last two decades that have undermined the country’s reputation as being a military superpower. The Russian Federation is divided into 89 federal subjects of which 24 are republics with their own constitutions, official languages, and national anthems. Some of these republics may decide that now is the time to break away from the federation given Russia’s military and economic weakness. Putin’s special military operation has triggered a domino effect that is beginning to set off a set of reactions within Russia and across the Russian Federation. The importance to Putin of not failing in Ukraine implies that Russia will increasingly intensify what Putin and Surovikin would claim to be so-called military activities, but what in reality are actions that are war crimes, crimes against humanity and climate crimes.

‘Just war theory’ is a doctrine that proposes that a war must be morally justifiable and must meet a set of criteria. These criteria are divided into two groups. On the one hand, there is jus ad bellum, or the right to go to war, which concerns the criteria for starting a war. On the other hand, there is jus in bello, or the right conduct in war, and here the focus is on activities that occur once a war has commenced. As far as the right to go to war is concerned, Putin would argue that Russia is not at war with Ukraine. However, Russia’s partial military mobilization undermines this position. Thus, Russia is at war with Ukraine. The problem for Russia is that there are no satisfactory or justifiable grounds for instigating this war. Ukraine was no threat to Russia. Putin argues that his war is about protecting Russians living in Ukraine. This argument then also collapses given the ways in which Russia is conducting military operations in Ukraine based on jus in bello. There is no question that Russia is indiscriminately targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

For Russia, Putin’s war with Ukraine must be defined as ‘unjust’. Ukrainians are responding to an illegal and unjust invasion. Ukraine could fall back and let Russia annex Ukraine, but this would be an unjust response to an unjust military activity. The only just action for Ukraine is to defend its people and territory.

This might seem to be a very philosophical discussion, but it is critical for all countries that are not directly involved in Russia’s Ukrainian war. Thus, countries can indirectly or directly support Russia’s unjust war. Indirect support includes abstaining from UN General Assembly resolutions. Direct support includes voting against UN resolutions and providing Russia with direct and indirect support. Indirect and even direct support of this unjust war also includes engaging in activities that work around sanctions.

The problem that all countries have is in deciding how far they should try to discourage Russia from engaging in inappropriate conduct on the battlefield. The Russian war with Ukraine has entered a new phase based on a return to mass indiscriminate targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure. This includes the indiscriminate deployment of kamikaze drones. The use of these drones is like Adolf Hitler’s deployment of the V-1 flying bombs or Vergeltungswaffe 1 (Vengeance Weapon 1) during World War II. The V-1 was deployed as a form of terror bombing of London in 1944. Thus, the deployment by Russia of kamikaze drones represents the use of a new form of vengeance weapon intended to terrorise the Ukrainian people and this is counter to jus in bello.

Two important points come from this discussion of the initiation and conduct of ‘just’ versus ‘unjust’ wars. The first is the urgent need for the UN General Assembly to come to some agreement regarding jus in bello, or the right conduct in war that includes recent innovations in weaponry. This must include a clear statement that the indiscriminate use of kamikaze drones targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure is morally unjustifiable and any such use must be defined as a crime against humanity and as a war crime.

The second point concerns countries that are directly or indirectly supporting either Russia or Ukraine. For those supporting Russia, now is the time to reconsider this support and this includes the 24 republics that are members of the Russian Federation. Those countries that are supporting Ukraine must enhance their level of support. There has been too much talk regarding providing Ukraine with an air defence shield and not enough provision of equipment. There are on-going talks of sanctions, but now is the time to have a discussion regarding maximising sanctions and making a clear link between maintaining all sanctions as long as Russia continues to occupy any territory that is defined under international law as Ukrainian.

There must be clarity regarding Russian petrochemicals. Recently, Putin visited Turkey and proposed that Turkey should become a gas hub for Europe that would replace the Baltic Sea’s Nord Stream pipelines. This type of proposal should be ridiculed. Putin’s unjust Ukrainian war has highlighted the stupidity of any form of energy dependency based around one country supplier. No European country must permit itself to become too dependent on one energy source or energy provider. Thus, Russia might decide to develop a new energy hub to support European clients, but there needs to be a clear message from all European countries that Russia as a major European energy supplier is something that occurred in the past. Putin’s initiation of an unjust Ukrainian war means that Russia can never again be a dominant energy provider.

Putin’s declaration that he has no regrets regarding his Ukrainian war must be challenged by actions rather than just by talk. He must be forced to regret his special military operation by actions taken by all Russian citizens and by those living within the Russian Federation, by the Ukrainian military and by all countries and people who recognise that Putin’s Ukrainian war is unjust.

Professor John R Bryson
Professor John R Bryson
Professor John Bryson is Chair in Enterprise and Economic Geography at Birmingham Business School. John's research is motivated by a desire to understand and explain the complex ways in which production is organized through space and in place and via a variety of forms of enterprise.

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63 COMMENTS

  1. Why are we (or our allies) not able to supply Ukraine with something to bring down these cheap weapons? We have all known this was coming but are we focusing on being able to defeat their smartest weapons yet we need to defend against the equivalent of them chucking a shed load of bricks over the wall.

    • Because the Obama and Biden administrations provided Iran with the cash to build them in the first place. Their entire middle east strategy hangs on enabling Iran to continue destabilising the region, particularly Israel.

      • It is not a surprise that Iran and Russia are attempting to combine forces as their autocratic Government’s struggle to subdue their populations & distract with external conflicts. They are lashing out. A dangerous time for all but a time when all those in democratic countries should celebrate their democratic systems regardless of the dubious decisions of the leaders from time to time😀

        • I’m concerned that Iran has requested nuclear warheads, in return for it’s unlimited material support for Putin. The more desperate the Russian situation becomes, the more likely it is.

          A nuclear attack on Israel would certainly split the wests attention on Ukraine. It’s something KGB Col. Putin would do without remorse. I wonder what other “deals of desperation” he would be willing to strike with the other Axis of Evils countries, CCP china and North Korea?

          • Whilst you are right to be concerned I suspect that one way or another Iran will get Nuclear wepaons unless the Government falls due to internal struggles. For Nuclear conflict to be initiated by Iran then it must realise that it would not survive.

            All these Autocracies must realise that the danger does not come from outside their own Country but from their own populations. If a leader nukes his own people he reduces himself to nothing.

            That said it would be unsurprising if small nuclear devices were used at this time.

          • Logical western thinking is totally irrelevant when trying to understand the Iranian leadership. Their own survival is the last of the ayatollahs concerns. They wish to usher in the age of the 13th imam and the final phase of the world, by destroying Israel. In their minds, the welfare of all Iranian people would be best served by entering paradise. If you had seen their behaviour during the Iran Iraq war. That would be blatantly clear.
            The main weapons including WMDs are in the hands of the revolutionary guard. Including a newly formed NCC Nuclear Corps Command. Directly controlled by the religious leader. We all know what happens next, if Iran launches nuclear weapons at Israel. Regardless if they reach their targets or fall to the Iron Dome system.

  2. It is odd that we discuss the pressures on Putin faced by this war yet we do not seem to be able to keep a PM in post for more than five minutes ourselves. Are we not aware that this instability is an act of self harm. The instability will obviously be the undoing of Putin but we should all recognise that regardless of our political preferences supporting your elected leader in times of instability is a must.

  3. Moscow is effectively at war with NATO and Europe. We see this with how it:
    1)    Plays the victim card (Nazis/NATO expansion etc)
    2)    States it is prepared to take that final step in which to defend itself (Oppenheimer’s chemistry set)
    3)    Restricted energy exports. On that note, whilst everybody only sees the sanctions put in place since Moscow invaded Ukraine in Feb, what is overlooked is that actually Moscow started restricting exports in 2020 resulting in sharp price rises before feb 24 2022.
    4) Seeded the internet with many trolls who try to peddle the line that NATO/EU/Ukr is the guilty party and started this, thus justifying Moscows invasion
     
    All of which shows that Moscow planned for a multi-faceted plan of action in which to deal with the fall out regards its expansion of empire. Unfortunately for Moscow, Ukraine didn’t collapse as it intended to and the bunfight it started there has dragged on longer than the few weeks it expected it to last
     
    Which brings me back to my opener. If Moscow sees itself at war with the West, why do we presume it will be symmetrical for example it has been known for ages that Moscow uses the internet to attack others (Looks at Estonia 2007)
     
    I for example have kept an open mind about the current chaos riveting the Uk :
    Political quagmire
    Union dissent
    Woke dissent
     
    Looking at the Political unrest, would it be a stretch to presume that maybe somebody is pulling the strings in which to stymie political unity which indirectly would also effect the countries response to Ukraine?
     
    Union dissent has been organised to run alongside Political unrest and funny enough the vast majority of those playing we only want the workers to get a decent wage (Train unions rejected a very generous deal only last night, Doctors demanding a 25% pay increase) are openly Marxist who are on record of supporting Russia (as in visits to the rebels parts of the Ukraine)
     
    Woke agenda regards closing down the Uk by the great unwashed who demand the Uk should turn to socialism who have no idea what socialism entails
     
    As I said its as if somebody if pulling a lot of strings, I mean who heard of the mass national strike across France yesterday, you didn’t , well there was,
    Which is why this article in the Guardian caught my eye yesterday.

    https://i.postimg.cc/4dBNQzHy/Opera-Snapshot-2022-10-20-164648-www-theguardian-com.png
    The cost to Ukraine of downing the “kamikaze” drones being fired at its cities vastly exceeds the sums paid by Russia in sourcing and launching the cheap Iranian-made technology, analysis suggests.
     
    A total of 161 Shahed-136 drones, one larger Shahed-129 and four even larger unmanned attack vehicles known as Mohajer-6s have been shot down by Ukrainian air defences in the last month.
     
    With the price of the Iranian-made Shahed-136s standing at €20,000 to €50,000 for each vehicle, the total cost to Russia of the failed drone attacks unleashed on Ukraine in recent weeks is estimated by military analysts at the NGO Molfar to be between $11.66m (£10.36m) and $17.9m (£15.9m).

    So a leftwing rag is surreptitiously selling the line that it is far too expensive to stop Russia from attacking the Ukr, which will no doubt seed the X-fools crowd (If you havent listened to the radio show, I fully recommend doing so link below) into demanding that any new British gov, end all support to Ukraine

    Now I dont subscribe to the tin foil hat brigade mindset, but when it comes to war, there is more than one way to skin a cat.

        • The French do tend to protest against almost anything. We all know that the whole point of NATO is to deter war. Reminds me of that Dads Army episode where loads of people joined a queue just in case there was something good at the end of it.

          I thought the French were going to take a leading role in the EU Army. Not a great advert if the French population won’t support it.

          • Yes, that’s over a 5% real terms pay cut year on year over two years with massive layoffs. What a great offer. This was also offered to the tiny TSSA which represents managers, the one thing the rail industry has too much of. They said no. You must party with Grant Schapps/Green whatever. *sniff sniff.

          • So can you explain the unions counter plan to modernise the railways, seems air travel gets cheaper whilst rail get more expensive. Air travel would be incredibly cheap without the taxes.

            I must say I’m really looking forward to this marvellous nationalised rail service that the unions bang on about, it had better be good. Lets hope we don’t need to subsidise it to the tune of £13b like the French, We need that cash for defence.

          • Aviation fuel is tax free. Local councils also heavily subsidise internal air routes, often paying carriers to operate from their local airport such as Newquay. I don’t like nationalisation on principle but the railway is a kind of natural monopoly and so heavily regulated it was never really privatised anyway. All that happened is that one CEO became 11 CEOs and various management functions were replicated across each TOC. Add in the whopping amounts lost as dividends and you’ve got a more sound basis on the finances right there. I suspect it will always require some level of subsidy if you want a railway beyond the M25, and that raises the question of social function and enabling wealth creation in other sectors which probably more than makes up for any headline cost.

    • I agree with all four points you started with, then disagree with everything you say it points to.

      The political quagmire comes from all the adults in the Tory party stepping back after the Brexit vote to let the children do their worse.

      The unions nowadays are quite anti everything Russia is fighting for. Putin’s Russia is a society built on everything the right love.

      What is ‘woke’ other than ‘stop promoting hatred’ in different forms?

      I personally hate the Guardian as it is too liberal while I am a Liberal but the article is making a valid point. If Russia is paying N to send so many cheap drones we can have a situation were the west is paying 2 x N to stop 60% of them, and Ukraine is taking 3 x N worth of damage.

      I have repeatedly made the point that the only way to stop Russia destroying the Ukraine is to give them the ability to hit back. At the moment what we are doing is far to close to saying you can have all the helmets, body armour and medical supplies you want but no weapons. We do not want to escalate things.

      • ‘Woke’ is interesting it started as a definition of being aware of others suffering ie have you woken up to this, but unfortunately wokism now its used to completely misrepresent those who actually suffer for political ends and as a tool to amplify something or even discredit people/organisations. Ironically people have now awoken to the misuse of ‘Woke’

    • 3)    Restricted energy exports. On that note, whilst everybody only sees the sanctions put in place since Moscow invaded Ukraine in Feb, what is overlooked is that actually Moscow started restricting exports in 2020 resulting in sharp price rises before feb 24 2022.

      We have had a discussion on this before and what you say is a misinterpretation of what happened. In the summer of 2021 EU gas buyers delayed placing orders until the ‘summer’ prices (due to reduced demand at that time of year) kicked in, only they didn’t come. The energy traders (set up years previously by the EU) correctly read the high demand due to low stocks and held their nerve and prices high. So when in late summer they had to buy they had to pay the now high prices that kept rising all the way to Christmas, before dropping back and rising again on the invasion.

      So what happened was actually Gazprom’s customers reducing orders which of course forced a drop in supply. Gazprom has maintained, without contradiction, that they have satisfied every valid order they received.

      Russia’s current position, as I understand it, is that there is an open offer to all their European customers to revert back to their old long term contracts and prices, as Hungary and Serbia have already done. Were that to happen the current prices would crash to the levels of last summer. Dramatically cutting their income.

      The energy sanctions have backfired horrendously on Europe, instead of hitting Russia in its pocket, it has very significantly increased the profits that they can use to fund the war.

      What made sense before the effect of the sanctions was felt, no longer does. We are in the world of Alice.

      • Is the leash chaffing? I see you are having to up your game with numbers, but not content, of posts, as your handler is also getting a bit worried, and shit rolls downhill when trolling doesn’t it.

      • Give it rest with your revision of history, to that end want to name any British (or US) weaponary used by Iraq during its war with Iran, oh thats right you can’t. But I can name lots of:
        Russian
        Chinese
        Eastern European
        South African
        French
        which made up all the weapon sysytems used by Iraq, As i can list the countries who lost money when Saddam was removed from power, which saw the likes of the US/Uk lose very little (funny that)

        Never fails to amaze me how people like you, who openily hate the West, who support those who hate our way of life, never seek asylum in the countries you support, nope its always a new life in the countries you hate. How about you quote actual facts next time.

  5. The Iranian Drones are manufactured by Shahed Aviation Industries. Any reason why a dozen Tomahawks haven’t hit the factory already?.
    if you launch attacks from within your borders against another country they become legitimate targets as does anyone supplying offensive weaponry. Time we faced up to Putin and gave the Ukrainians long range weaponry to take out the source of the attacks.
    Putin only understands cold hard steel. Time he faced it. Might bring on his demise a lot quicker.

      • Can we still deliver a few tomahawks because sitting back while watching Ukrainian civilians being slaughtered and us manipulating what long range weaponry we do or don’t supply isn’t how you stop Putin.

      • I saw on the internet that these Iranian drones are cheap, $10-20k, & are powered by a Chinese moped engine. Even a .50 cal machine gun, with a predictor gunsight & mounted high up (roof/hill) ought to stop a few.

        • The shorter range, smaller warhead Shahad-135 has made an appearance. That is a copy of a Chinese drone which in turn uses a copy of a British engine.

          It seems likely that the Russians are now making the Shahad-136 themselves. Also Iranian training teams have been spotted in Crimea and the Ukrainians have targeted them.

          • I am told the Iranian drones use cheap civilian electronics to keep the costs down. In which case, they should be vulnerable to directed electronic warfare attack.

    • It might be worth smiling darkly at the Iranians and advising them “That it would be shame if something nasty happened to that shiny new Drone factory”.

    • I would imagine the Israelis have a full dossier on the Iranian factory, owners, key people and how to disrupt manufacturing.

    • A missile strike by a foreign power is exactly what the Tehran regime wants right now as it will deflect from the internal unrest, and would probably rally some of the protesters onto side of the regime.

  7. The author several timse describes the attacks on civilian infrastucture as “indicriminate”. This is clearly not true for the attacks on infrastructure. Apart from the odd rogue weapon, targets such as power stations are clearly being deliberately selected and attacked. This is the exact opposite of indiscriminate.

    • As the Ukrainian grid was built in the days of the USSR it used, now difficult to source, transformers, switches etc. and was planned in Moscow who have all the plans enabling them to select specific targets to achieve specific objectives. This quote from a Russian poster on Telegram describes probably the major one, military transport. He is saying that last nights attacks were larger than those on the 10th, the first night, as Russia homes retargets based on Ukrainian responses.

      “The peak occurred on the morning of October 22. The key facilities were the substations “Lutsk – Severnaya” (Volyn region), “Rivne”, “Pobugskaya” (Kirovograd region), “Usatovo” and “Adzhalyk” (Odessa region).

      In the Odessa region, a blow was also delivered to the general substation control point, which will complicate the process of restoring power grids in the southern regions of Ukraine. This paralyzes the traffic of trains with military equipment delivered from the central regions to Nikolaev and for distribution to the Kherson front.

      The substation “Khmelnitskaya”, which provides power to a number of railway branches and repair and restoration capacities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the western regions of Ukraine, has undergone a critical blow.

      The general railway architecture for the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Donbass and Kherson fronts, as well as the activities of the logistics centers here are close to complete collapse.”

      No longer will Ukraine be able to move supplies powered by NPP electricity, instead they will need diesel locos of which they have very few, which will be needed initially to move now dead electric locos and their loads. The big problem will be they will need some of the increasingly scarce supply of diesel now that it can’t come from NATO or their last, now attacked, refinery.

      The Russians are now belatedly attacking those targerts that many thought would be hit as soon as NATO supplies by rail achieved strategic significance.

      • This is why we need to give them the ability to hit back. Every time something goes bang in the Ukraine something needs to go bang in Russia.

        We cannot let a Fascist dictator like Putin hide behind his threats to blow up the world if his cowardly incompetent military fail to beat a country significantly smaller with a fraction of the defence budget.

      • Does that make you happy, that due to your “source” it is now slightly more complicated for the Ukrainians to fight against the Nazi Russian invaders? But don’t worry, the NATO logistics experts and logistics kit will sort it out. But as we are chatting, any comments on the current recruitment process in force for your Russian invaders? Any comments on Putins mental state? No……sorry I forgot, you aren’t allowed are you!

        • “slightly” might be an understatement, the logistics in Ukraine have never been easy but I agree that NATO logistics have done a first class job so far. I think Shoigu announced that the call up was completed a week ago ago whilst the volunteer process continues. .

    • This from a Ukrainian Telegram channel describes the reaction to the current problem quite well. Clearly, as you say, a new approach in needed, but now not in a few weeks.

      Against kamikaze UAVs, the Armed Forces of Ukraine use their fighters, which fly out and catch up with the “mopeds”.

      The only risk is that in this way the Russians catch Ukrainian planes. The tactics are simple. They send a drone – a kamikaze, for example, in the Poltava region (there is a military airfield there). At this moment, the fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine take off to shoot down the “shahid”, and at this moment aviation and air defense are also working from the Russian side, which detects the Ukrainian aircraft and fires several “surprises” at it. As a result, more than 3 aircraft were lost in the Poltava region in a few days.

      Aviation is suitable only for work in the depths of the country, and then there is a risk that in western Ukraine, a surprise may arrive from Belarus. But with X-type missiles or calibers, such a feint does not work.

      The Russians also use a mixed launch system, when they release kamikaze UAVs in advance, and after a while missiles of different types.

      If the Office of the President does not report damage from a missile attack, this does not mean that it does not exist. This morning a lot of Missiles hits the target, just Bankovaya forbade writing about it. In many cities, the power went out and the residual electric transport stopped.

      https://t.me/intelslava/39867

      • Yes, the Russians are exploiting a weakness. Martlet / Starstreak might be good. GPMG ought to have some success on slower low altitude drones. But this MCT-30 turret from Kongsberg with the proximity round is the best solution.
        https://www.kongsberg.com/newsandmedia/news-archive/20202/bae-systems-selects-kongsbergs-mct-30-turret-for-u.s.-marine-corps-acv-program/
        Failing that, Screwfix sell a good range of petrol generators. I’ve a feeling they will be in demand.

        • Kongsberg make some really good products and you are spot on re proximity fuses.

          Range of cheap ones in today’s Mail as well. Not sure if we will need them but they will over on the continent. I have a daughter in Switzerland and they have been told to actively prepare for blackouts.

      • Dont you you worry pal, NATO will supply the kit to defeat whatever shite your Russian peasant try and do. Your bestie Putin has shown to the world how weak, pathetic and incompetent the Russian military is, and no amount of propaganda from you are your fellow troll squad will change that.

        • Propaganda is not needed when the results are visible to all and sundry, like the accurate targeting over the last 10 days by the “weak, pathetic and incompetent the Russian military”.

          • Ha ha ha infrastructure is the easiest targeting! It doesn’t move and doesn’t fight back! Oh dear, trolls with zero military experience. How sad!

      • And I see you no longer reply to Farouk. That’s your best option as he rips you to shreds, in a public domain, every single time. At least that shows you are capable of learning.

      • You know that you’re clutching at straws when you end up quoting ad nauseam the meandering suppositions and wishful thinking of an obscure Russian milblogger. Every time, every single report you’ve posted about purported Russian success or Ukrainian defeat has been shown up as baseless bullshit untethered to any reality.

        Your recent lauding of Russian warcrime missile and drone strikes against civilian infrastructure has made no difference to the military situation on the ground. Ukraine continues to advance while Russia panics and attempts to evacuate its quisling collaborators, military families, frightened Russian officials, and anything that isn’t nailed down from Kherson.

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