The Kiel Institute has tracked $84.2B from 40 countries in financial, humanitarian, and military aid to Ukraine from 24 January to 3 August 2022.

Since the beginning of the Biden administration, the US has contributed $17.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine, making it the most significant donor. Of that aid, $16.8 billion has been given since February 2022.

The UK has committed £2.3 billion in military assistance to Ukraine thus far. It has made a pledge to match that assistance in 2023. The UK is also hosting a training programme, supported by several allies, intending to train 10,000 new and existing Ukrainian personnel within 120 days.

This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines.

NATO has been very clear about its political support for Ukraine. It fully endorses the giving of individual allies’ bilateral military aid.

The distribution of humanitarian supplies and non-lethal assistance is supported by NATO, which also assists in coordinating the Ukrainian government’s requests for help. However, because Ukraine is not a member of NATO, it is not a party to Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty, which contains NATO’s mutual defence clause. As a result, there will be no NATO forces stationed in Ukraine.

Additionally, the European Union is supplying deadly weapons via its European Peace Facility (EPF). This is the first time in the bloc’s history that the transfer of lethal weapons to a third country has been authorised. The EU has already pledged €2.5 billion.

I fought the NLAW, and the NLAW won

One word that the Russian army and the rest of the world had grown accustomed to hearing a week after Russia invaded Ukraine was NLAW. On 24 February 2022, various Western nations vowed to provide Ukraine with weapons in response to Russia’s “special military operation” there.

A British contribution generally referred to as the NLAW, denoting its position as a “Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapon,” was among the least expensive but most efficient. The NLAW, which measures 3 feet, 4 inches in length, weighs 28 pounds altogether, combines firepower and fire-and-forget electronics in a small, disposable container (compared to the 49-pound weight of the FGM-148 Javelin when it entered service with the Americans in 1996).

NLAW also employs a soft-launch-guided system with predictable line-of-sight guidance. After being fired, the round travels at a relatively slow speed of 40 metres (130 feet) per second with little backblast before the main propellant ignites to accelerate the round to a speed of 200 metres (600 feet) per second and a maximum range of 1,000 metres. The effective range is 800 metres (2,625 feet) (3,300 feet).

Top-down attacks

After keeping sights on the target for the first two or three seconds after firing, the user, equipped with a 2.5-power telescopic sight with night vision, can abandon his or her last firing position while the weapon is guided to the target based on those previous coordinates.

The NLAW can penetrate up to 20 inches of armour and is lighter and more portable than the Javelin. Still, its 4-pound shaped charge warhead lacks the tandem fuse system of the Javelin and can be deflected by active armour. However, the NLAW operator can employ a proximity fuse to launch an overfly top attack on a tank’s less heavily armoured upper surface or a direct contact explosive round to attack unarmoured targets or stationary enemy positions.

‘Cope cages’

Most likely, you’ve seen images of Russian tanks with what were known as ‘cope cages’. At the beginning of the invasion, these metal cages were being welded onto Russian tanks to provide protection from anti-tank missiles. In some cases, they may have been successful.

Nevertheless, modern anti-tank weapons such as NLAW and Javelin, among other systems, took a terrible toll on Russian tanks, and the Russian Ministry of Defence rapidly sought out a new remedy. The cages were simply a waste of time.

Why, then, do these systems defeat Russian armour so well? The reality is that contemporary anti-tank missiles of the calibre delivered to Ukraine are, quite simply, horrifyingly efficient.

Poor doctrine, poor results

Because even tanks from the West would struggle to defend themselves against them, the US is gradually integrating the trophy defence system into its own tank designs. Unlike reactive armour panels, this anti-tank missile system effectively disrupts incoming missiles by firing explosive charges.

However, Russia’s poor strategy and careless tank usage are the leading causes of this weapon’s potency. Moreover, the Russian military has repeatedly demonstrated that it cannot effectively operate infantry and armour together. As a result, Russian armour is frequently just left to fight for itself.

The Multiple-Launch Rocket System

In the Russian-led conflict in Ukraine, which top American commanders have dubbed a “battle of fires,” artillery strikes are essential. Because it possessed a much greater collection of artillery systems than the Ukrainian military, the Russian army had a clear edge at first. It implied they could destroy Ukrainian positions in the east without coming into contact with Ukrainian guns.

By providing their allies with artillery weapons that not only have a more extended range than the Russians but also shoot with more accuracy, the United Kingdom, the United States, and finally, Germany have attempted to change the balance of weaponry on the battlefield in favour of Ukraine.

This involves providing the Ukrainian military with multiple-launch rocket systems, or MLRS.

The Multiple-Launch Rocket System, also known as MLRS, is a mobile rocket artillery system that can launch numerous surface-to-surface missiles. The M270 rocket system is employed by the Royal Artillery of the British Army. The weapon is a highly mobile, automatic system that can fire 12 surface-to-surface precision-guided missiles in less than a minute. It is operated by a crew of three (a driver, gunner, and section chief). They can be fired singly, in pairs, or in groups of up to 12. With a 200lb high explosive warhead, the M31 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) munitions have a range of more than 50 miles, which is twice as far as other army artillery weapons.

Ukraine has received six MLRS from the UK, along with precision guided M31A1 missiles. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace stated that the system would “assist the country protect itself against Russian aggression” when the first of the three tranches was revealed in June 2022.

Sky News was the first to be granted permission to film a multiple-launch rocket system given to Ukraine by the UK in action during the war and to meet the soldiers operating it.

“Thanks to these weapons, we’ve carried out really high-priority missions,” said the commander of the artillery unit, who asked to remain anonymous for security reasons. This included hitting military bases, columns of armoured vehicles and ammunition stores.

The commander said, in his opinion, around 30% of the successes achieved by Ukraine in a major counter-offensive in the east were thanks to the British and German rocket launchers.

“This is one of the key factors, which influenced the Russian army not just to retreat, but to run,” the officer said, referring to the recapture in recent weeks of swathes of illegally occupied territory across the Kharkiv region and into the Donbas.

These are two examples of Western weapons most effective in the Ukraine War. They have caused Russia to reconsider how it deploys its forces because they are no longer safe behind the front lines.

Pushing Russia out

Ukraine has hit hundreds of Russian targets with just the two above examples. The velocity of the onslaught from Russian forces has slowed to a crawl as Russian forces must wait even longer for supplies as Russian command and control nodes and logistical hubs have been driven out of range.

Western weapons have turned the tide, Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to use modern Western weapons in combat to great effect, and this isn’t something Russia is prepared for.

Russia has warned of a response to fresh shipments of weapon systems from the West. However, it is my view that Russia’s mouth is writing cheques that its military cannot cash as their military cannot handle the dozen or so rocket artillery systems and 8,000 NLAW launchers already deployed to Ukraine, never mind the 1,000 rocket artillery systems and 24000 NLAW launchers ready to go in Western nations.

 

George Allison
George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
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108 COMMENTS

  1. I think the first artillery anyone sent were the French Caesar systems so they deserve a mention for that. I believe the Ukrainians really like them.

    • Hmmm timescales were quite close for equipment and it would really depend if you included soviet era equipment. They certainly have been very useful in Ukraine.

    • Fair point. Caesar are great systems. MLRS is superior for range though and for delivering a saturation attack against large area targets such as ammo dumps, rail heads or logistics hubs.
      As proven to the Orcs. Russia’s army has been ground down by just a handful of these weapoms. Imagine what would happen against a whole NATO army group? The Russian army would be pasted.

      • Hi Mr Bell, the M31 guided round would not be used for a saturation attack as it has a relatively small warhead and is best employed to use it’s astonishing accuracy to neutralise high value targets. Gone are the days of the M27 “bomblet” round with 644 submunitions which were for area attack.
        cheers

    • Chris wrote:
      “”I think the first artillery anyone sent were the French Caesar systems””

      Without wanting to take anything away from what the French have done, that accolade (regards SPGs) belongs to the Czechs when they handed over 22 DANA SPGs in April, then it was followed by Slovakia , and Poland when they handed over 8 Zuzana SPG (newer version of the DANA) and 18 KRABS.Germany and Holland started training Ukrainians inside Germany the second week of May to use Panzerhaubitze 2000 (NL/5, Gr/7) and the first report I can find of the 12 newly supplied French Caesar SPG is for the first week of June in the French , British and Ukr media. This was followed by an addittional 6 in july.

      The other week the French stated they will reroute between 6 to 12 Caesars which were ordered by Denmark, these are of an improved standard than what the french use.

      • The main thing to hold on to is the Ukrainians are being supplied with top notch ways to bash the Russians. However it comes, whenever it comes.

    • JIMK wrote:

      “”This Russian tank was spotted, caged all round with an anti light munition from a drone cope cage. More interesting is the simple IR decoy burner out the back.””

      The problem with that is very few (I actually know of none, happy to be corrected) RPGs, Anti-tank missiles use an IR guidance sysytem. So how it would divert anything) other than a few moths) I do not know and If like AAM they are fine tuned to the IR signitures of their supposed targets, then the above is simply the waste of a BV unless of course you are following troops wanting to brew up.

      Oh by the way, that tank is actually Belarusian

      • Thanks, it just made me smile at the range of Heath Robinson like solutions piled on top of each other that they had come up with.

        I did think that many ATGM are fitted with thermal imaging IR sensors, so I stand corrected.

        • John, hats off to you , you are quite smart. I did wonder why you lurk around this site considering the great amount of abuse , a lot of it personal you seem to endure at the hands of a few people on here but as I say you are smart ! You very often seem to elicit a reaction out of posters on here who may well unknowingly through frustration ‘inside’ information. I even remember watching films about people like you during my time working with green and red A4 folders 😉😉. It was always the quiet and knowledgible guy at the end of the bar who never got flustered or angry that we were warned to beware of. No doubt you consider yourself to be very clever but tbh you stick out like a sore thumb and I would advise posters to refrain from engaging with you on here ,especially when you quietly goad them 😉

          • Thanks for the backhanded compliment with the sting in the tail. I don’t regard myself as being particularly clever, just observant. There are some here definitely cleverer than me. I stick out as I take a different point of view that some regard as unacceptable.

          • Not really Jim, he is just a troll who speed out Russian propaganda! Nothing anyone says on here is not available in a public forum, no tactical or strategic “secrets” or SOPs are given away! Please take time to read his posts, he supports the war in Ukraine, he supports the illegal invasion and I, and others find it amusing he isn’t allowed to nail his flag to the post and to cowardly to admit his thought process. Read his previous chuff and you will also laugh at him! There is nothing impressive about his performance or how he operates, he has a narrative and does as he is told!

          • Hi Airbourne, thanks for your reply . I agree that John is a tiny tiny wheel but as you suggest I’ve been reading his bs for a long time now and once you get behind his crap you can , or at least I think I can, discern a certain fairly smart MO . I’m sure you had the same advice about ‘the quiet polite guy’ at the bar soaking it all up when passions might be running high. He ‘provokes’ with purpose, notice he never gets riled at the abuse he gets, some often quite personal? The Internet is literally swimming with people like John and what we might let slip as unimportant sure as shit gets fed back to ‘ the brain’ all to be sifted and sorted. Ever heard of ‘Autonomy software’ I know a fair bit as I used to have a fair few shares! What everyone thinks is unimportant snippets isn’t, trust me! John is a player I feel sure of it.

      • Javelin is the first ATGM that comes to mind that uses an IR seeker. The seeker gives it the fire and forget capability. The vast majority of “heavy” ATGMs are semi-active command line of sight (SACLOS), even the latest Russian ones. That use either a large spool of wire/fiber optic command cable or a radio data-link for command guidance. There are a few that also use laser. I know China have made a reverse engineered copy of Javelin.

        The Spike is another ATGM that uses an imaging infrared seeker. One of its modes is fire and forget where the target is locked on before launch. It does have another lock on after launch that can use a radio data link or a trailing fibre optic to give it command guidance. This gives it the non line of sight (NLOS) capability.

        The problem with the Heath Robertson IR jammer fitted in the end of the pole. Is that both the Javelin and Spike use imaging infrared seekers. These not only look at the heat delta of the surrounding atmosphere/ground but also the overall signature of the target as well. Which means it doesn’t just lock onto the hottest object. If these missiles were using the earlier IR seekers, then perhaps it might have a chance of working.

        For this jammer to work it has to not only mimic the temperature signature of the engine and exhaust, but also the rest of the tank. Which I doubt very highly, it can do!

    • Crock of Russian shit, flapping like fuck! The cages are only effective against RPGs and even then the RPGs have to impact at a certain angle, and dependent on the width of the bars as to its effectiveness! But, the Ukrainians have N-LAW and Jav, plus some excellent off road directional mines from Germany, so waste of iron! And, a simple IR decoy, on a fucking pole FFS, what a waste of time. More likely a fire to burn the evidence of rape kit, gloves, rope, masks and the like!

      • Do you accept that cage could also be effective against the light, drone dropped munitions, normally aimed at open hatches, that I mentioned?

        • Nope, as the drone dropped grenades are generally 40mm, some AP. As for open hatches, you are falling for that Ukraine propaganda you think is so rife! The vast majority that aimed for open hatches, are in fact already abandoned vehicles (common occurrence by the armoured rape squads) and the drone takes a long time and quite a number of munitions to get in the hatch! The cages are all cope cages, have zero effect on the safety of the vehicle and is (or now was, as no fucker in the rapists army think it works) and is all a mental thing to make the rapists in the crew think it will keep them safe! “I fought the NLAW and the NLAW won”

          • Airborne that’s a lot of Intel you have ‘dropped’ on johnski! Remember they don’t know how much you know and you don’t know how much they don’t know , any engagement is risky. John is smart he ofter plays you guys like a fiddle ! Sorry to say

          • I think your cautionary advice is good Jim, but I haven’t seen much that the Russians haven’t already found out the hard way. But I think it is a point well made that he/them/they could be fishing.

          • I wouldn’t make a very good fisherman, I hadn’t even read that Airborne post above as what he says in most of his replies to me either doesn’t make sense or is loaded with bile. In this case the former as the first of the two grenades he postulates would surely cause the hatch to be closed before a second could arrive?

          • Oh dear you didn’t read what I said! I will repeat for the troll brain to process….the grenades are dropped through open hatches, the vast majority of when the vehicle has already been abandoned, hence the extended time period the drone can sit there and get a direct hit! It’s not hard to understand, but I suppose it is for you. Oh and you may find it wasn’t I who postulated about two grenades. At least get it right if flinging your handbag about!

          • Continuing in your new conciliatory vein, do you now condemn Putin’s unprovoked war on the people of Ukraine?

          • John yr amazing at fishing , first bait the hook with provocation then cast yr line in your last sentence !!!

          • Thanks Barry the point I’m making is that the ex forces people here can easily let slip when riled say how UK military ops my have been done ‘ back in the day’ so to speak. Our guys are very likely some of Ukraine major advisors so from a Russian perspective info about how we ‘ may’ be advising Ukraine. Would be valuable Intel. Even seemingly dated Intel is somewhat useful. Very often what the bad guy wants is an idea of what we might know about his capabilities or lack thereof. Think I’ve beat the point to death now but if everyone here strictly refuses to engage bar piss taking I think ‘ johnski’ will move on

          • He won’t, he has been on the warzone site since 2014, and has been pushing USSR propaganda posts since then! Even using good old commie propaganda posters! I find him amusing and enjoy debunking his repetitive troll chuff. He isn’t smart, he is predictable and therefore easy to counter!

          • The latter is not intentional, its just that there are many closed or propaganda influenced minds around here. Perhaps to be expected as I doubt that most front line military training emphasises the areas in which a potential enemy is equal or even superior but I don’t know that. It seems to me sometimes that it is me dropping the, albeit unacceptable, Intel on just what the Russians are up to. Some just cannot get their heads around the highly accurate and continuing onslaught of Russian cruise missiles, that they should have run out of months ago, or how the drunken, washing machine stealing rapists, otherwise know as the Russian Army, has beaten back the largest, trained by the best (that’s us), well equipped military in Europe.

            Add to that an inability to see that the fighting in Ukraine is only a part of the war, the existential one between the US and Russia/China/Iran where economics will be the deciding factor.

            There is a huge transfer of wealth underway, from us in Europe (as per our energy costs) to the US and Russia. Unless something changes quickly those costs are going to cripple us, faster than the Government will let on. If our industries start failing, as they have started to in Germany, social security costs will power up at the same time as tax revenues crater. The forthcoming budget will be built on sand. Money doesn’t grow on trees and once confidence in the £ and our money printing fails so does our society. £10 for a pint of milk anyone?

          • Hilarious post, keep it up! And where have the Russian army beaten back the largest well trained army in Europe? Mmmmmm let me cut and paste some of your previous posts in regards to that very same Ukrainian Army you flagged down on numerous occasions as lasting a few days, Russia won’t have to actually invade after a missile onslaught, Ukraine conscripts etc etc blah blah…..you change your tune more than the Lib Dems!

          • Thanks, sadly I think it may be all too likely.

            It certainly generated a very predictable response, clearly he thinks that the Russians are still at the 23rd Feb borders.

          • “He” thinks your Russian mates should be a little bit further into Ukraine by now, never mind the 23 Feb borders! Alas a predictable and none productive response by yourself once more!

          • Hi johnskie, here’s a good one from you a while ago, Jim have a look:

            JohninMK
            9 months ago
            Reply to dave12
            You put very well the reason why Russia is highly unlikely to do more in Ukraine than is necessary to defend Donbas if it is attacked. As a byproduct that might involve the destruction of the Nazi oriented Azoz groups as well as much of Ukraine’s military infrastructure. By using stand-off weapons but there would be little need for many Russian soldiers to cross the border

          • Another great one, do please persevere when reading this dog shit, Jim over to you:

            JohninMK
            9 months ago
            Reply to Ulya
            Good to get a Russian viewpoint. The Russian military seems to now have sufficient ‘stuff’ in place to rapidly counter any strike into Donbas, which is, they have said, the only reason to attack Ukraine.

            Whilst they will probably turn most of Ukraine’s military infrastructure to rubble across the whole country I suspect that they will want to make a point to NATO about what they are facing, so it will be by missiles not boots on the ground. The militia in the Donbas, by all accounts, looks pretty capable so with the help of Russian artillery they can themselves move their area forward to the Oblast borders, no need to go further, with as few as they need Russians crossing the border.

            Fortunately its unlikely to happen as the Ukrainians are not that stupid an,d after the meetings this week, Russia will want to make a point to the US in an area they are not necessarily expecting.
            Reply

          • I always love this one:

            JohninMK
            9 months ago
            Reply to Nick C
            Russian conscripts are no longer used on the front line. It is Ukraine that has thousands of conscripts.

          • Ah the 23 Feb border, old news, surely should be a bit closer to Poland by now? No……oh dear, how sad, never mind!

          • Agreed to a degree Jim, but whatever I say is in the public domain anyway! But you are right we should always be aware of our surroundings 👍

        • If it was a drone drop then you launch 2. One blows apart the badly made cage, next goes through the gap. Every counter measure creates a counter.
          They don’t look strong enough. The amount of and variety of weapons able to kill vehicles in Ukraine is vast. Hopefully the Russians will realise that to get any kind of victory will take so much kit and manpower that it’s not worth it.

      • If the subject were not so grim, this is laugh a minute stuff. I confess I have missed JohninMagnitogorsk solely because of the humour he inspires in your good self. IR decoy on pole! If there was a definition of ‘desperation’ that is it.

        Jim’s comment is astute as usual.

      • Thanks Barry but no, life took over but I did have a biopsy on Friday so we’ll see what that throws up, it won’t be good. There are two ways to have one on the prostate, clean and dirty (I’ll leave that to your imagination) but this time it was the clean one but they knock you out for it so that’s the day gone.

  3. Not to forget German and Dutch Panzerhaubitze 2000 with Smart 155 ammo, polish Krabs, German Mars MLRS, German Panzerfaust 3, Swedish Anti Tank Rockets, German IRIS T and Gepard SAM/AA.

    Apart from Tanks, Ukraine got Lots of high tech weapons.

  4. Regardless who is victorious or if stalemate is reached. There is one guaranteed outcome of this conflict. Russia and everyone else will reaffirm some basics regarding the coordinated use of armour, infantry, close air support, top cover and long range counter battery fire. The Russian forces in 5 years time will be far more effective.

    During Cold War exercises, the Red Army frequently demonstrated it’s proficiency at massed all arms integration. With huge formations of MBTs and IFV, supported by fixed and rotary winged aircraft. I’m specifically thinking of West 81 (Zapad-81), Shield-82 and numerous lesser events.
    Where they have either lost or never had mastery of command and control. Is in the dispersed action in depth, type of highly coordinated operation. It stems from their strict adherence to doctrine and unwillingness to deviate from it, or delegate flexibility to field commanders. Hence their current inability to respond quickly to counter enemy maneuver or exploit local weaknesses. We can expect that to change in the near future.

    • I think this conflict gives a strong emphasis the artillery specially long range to enemy depth and the importance of rocket artillery including guided.

    • Just because they were able to roll tanks etc in formation does not prove anything! As we have seen as soon as they actually have to fight they go to pieces. No anti air present you can fly what you like over your formations.
      As for 5 yrs time the losses in manpower and equipment is going to take an age to regenerate and if the sanctions stay in place perhaps they will have to dig a few more T62s out of the fields they are stored in.

    • “Red army demonstrated its proficiency” well if we are honest they have hoodwinked the west for 40 years during the Cold War! As their large formations rushing forward with the pretence of combined arms tactics and manoeuvre, are easy to demo in peacetime (as they did for 3 months prior to this invasion) than to actually make it work for real. In fact it’s worse now than the Cold War as the corruption from mid 90s to date, has proven to be the Nazis undoing! Will they learn from this, possibly, will they manage to do anything with that knowledge, unlikely. But you are correct insofar that the rigid C2 and lack of initiative and freedom of manoeuvre, allowed or encouraged/trained for, has made the monolithic block of cannon fodder and old iron, currently known as the Russian Armed Forces, unfit for purpose!

        • Sending two men and one rifle forward, after one was killed the second took the Moisin and fought on. They always depended on “mass”, seems their undoing now as “mass” does not want to be there, or indeed there is none.

          • There is no mass left, either regular forces or conscript and reserve. It’s the direct result of the old communist system imposed on The masses.”

      • Many seem to forget that “Punishment Battalions” were at the forefront of Soviet doctrine. With KGB battalions just behind to shoot anyone who advanced in reverse. I agree with you, they are presently a load of shit lacking in flexibility. We knew their kit was suss after both Gulfs. I remember an AIC lecture moons ago, the major stated clearly that the East Germans were the most effective Warpac units, the rest was just mass cannon fodder.

        • Agreed the East Germans were considered the best of the WP, and the Polish, at the time, the most unreliable due to their very nationalist and patriotic attitude to Poland and its history! Would it have turned “hot” many Polish units would have turned on the Russians as the war would have developed. Cheers

    • In 5 years?
      How can the devastated, no destroyed economy of Russia finance such a re-armarmament. Russian oil and gas industries will collapse within 2-3 years, as it did in 1992 after the collapse of SU, without the western technology and manpower provided by companies such as Halliburton, Shell and BP. If sanctions continue, air travel will become increasingly difficult if not impossible. Trains will grind to a halt as more and more engines are cannabalised for parts. Without trains and planes, any country the size of Russia cannot function.

      Also, how will it be able to access the advanced micro chip technologies required for advanced weaponry? Russia does not have the wherewithal to produce such technology, Neither does its ally, China.

      Finally, where will Russia get the manpower? Have you read about the demographic disaster that has befallen Russia. Every young Russian man dying in Ukraine or fleeing Russia is not just a personal tragedy, but also a national demographic calamity. Why do you think Russia is kidnapping thousands of Ukrainian children?

      If the Russians do attack again in future, it is more likely to be with hammers and sickles than with advanced Russian or Chinese weaponry.

      I suggest you read Peter Zeihan, a respected geopolitical analyst and author. You can also watch his seminars, talks and interviews on YT.

      • I will watch them Mark for sure, after the football.
        The world has never seen the deterioration of a nuclear armed post communist state before. Here we are 30+ years after the USSR lost the Cold War and it’s still experiencing death throes. That also includes the very corrupt Ukrainian state. Their transition to a liberal democracy is not very successful either. It is all new and very interesting.

        I still maintain that the Russians will learn from this and quickly, it would be impossible not to! That will start with the current serving military and lessons learned the hard way. Come what may, they will be the senior members of whatever armed force remains. Writing the new training procedures and SOPs. Just how big that force will be is up for debate.

        The best we can hope for is the demise of Putin and his cronies by assination and popular grass roots uprising. Yet another revolution/evolution. But if things stay as they are or regress to a fully totalitarian communist state. Russia with vast mostly still untapped natural resources, will survive and grow. They can utilise the Iranian connection because oil and gas extraction is their forte. Russia has commodities and technology Iran is desperately seeking. We have yet to discover the details of the current drone and technician deal. Worse case, nuclear warheads and hypersonic means of delivery going to Iran in exchange. We don’t know because the Israelis have not disclosed it, yet.

        China and by proxy Russia, may be behind but they are quickly catching up. Particularly with mid and high end chip manufacture. Russia again has natural resources and technology China is desperate to acquire. Jet engine technology and specifically but not exclusively.

        We are living in very dangerous times.

        • 1st half of your reply is aspirational waffle. Of course Russia will learn lessons. Firstly, don’t believe your own propaganda. Secondly, whatever lessons they learn, there is very little they can do to rectify the incompetence, inadequacies and corruption of their political, economic and military infrastructure.
          2nd half is pure delusional fantasy. Firstly, name one Iranian company that has expertise in extracting oil&gas from -30°C Siberian tundra in winter, nevermind building pipelines over thousands of kilometres of frozen tundra to transport the oil. Furthermore, any drilling technology used by Iran is western. Iran depends on western expertise to extract it’s own oil and pipe it to the coast.
          Secondly, neither China and Russia can design or manufacture high end chips. When China boasted about building the world’s fastest super computer, it was with American designed chips made in Taiwan and Korea. Russia cannot design or make mid level chips. China was allowed to make some mid level chips under licence from the USA with overwhelming support from US companies and personnel. China’s mobile device industry is totally dependent on British designed, Taiwanese made Arm chips. All this has stopped in the last few weeks since Biden imposed a total embargo on all companies and imprisonment of US directors and personnel that provide chip technology or technological assistance to China.
          China can design and manufacture low end chips. When you open a birthday card and it starts singing ‘Happy birthday’ in a Chinese accent, that’s a Chinese chip. However, China can’t make the machines that make the chips. They have tried but failed. Only Dutch company ASML make those machines. When they break down, that’s it, the end of Chinese chip manufacturing.

          The demographic situation for Russia is dire; for China it is cataclysmic.

          • The demographic situation for Russia, as mentioned, is dire; for China it is cataclysmic. China’s population is estimated to decline from 1.4 billion to 750 million by 2060 and to 560 million by 2100. Their population is aging and declining at a faster rate than Japan and S Korea. Now, Japan and S Korea are both rich, technologically advanced nations and can depend on increased productivity to manage decline. China, other the other hand, is neither rich; 600 million people earn less than $150pm and gdp per capita is less than a quarter of USA, nor technologically advanced. China is, in a word, phucked.

          • Mark, you are looking at this through British eyes. In communist states (and apparently recovering communist states) the individual and their rights are unimportant. As has been the case before, communist countries have no qualms about solving population problems by culling the herd. This phucked population crisis as you call it, was deliberately manufactured by imposing a one child limit on family size. The communists knew what they were doing, it’s consequence and what they would need to do next.

            Culling the herd. – The Chinese did it from 1958 to 61. Between 45 – 55 million Chinese were starved to death as part of Mao Zedong’s “Great leap forward.” But Stalin did it first in Ukraine 1932-4, leading to a large part of the animosity behind the current conflict. And incidentally the enthusiasm Ukrainian nationalists had/have for the Nazis “liberators.” Hence the ongoing hero worship of Stepan Andriyovych Bandera.

            In both above cases the aim was to get rid of the small subsistence family plots. Building huge collective farms in their place, using industrial style farming practices. That way maximising the output of the land to feed skilled workers in newly established industrial centres. Even today, grain is still the major export product of the Ukrainian step.

            All the above is one of the supporting arguments for the deliberate release hypothesis of the SARS 2 bat coronavirus, from a lab in Wuhan. It is still culling the old and infirm first, the useless eaters, to use the eugenics term. Leaving the healthy workers to do the collectives duties. The fact it was turned from a local epidemic to a global pandemic, actually benefited the CCP even further! There should be no need to explain either how it benefited the CCP or how a pandemic was achieved.

            Now you will call me delusional but others will not. There are many ways to interpret and extrapolate from an incomplete dataset. I’m trained to recognise patterns, think laterally outside of the box and be the devil’s advocate. Old habits die hard.

          • Isn’t the CCP’s mantra, the party is all, I am the party! I do believe people forget how the CCP works. It always plays the long game, but the party and its interests always comes first. To enable that, control is everything, just look at what has happened to Hong Kong over the last 5 years.

            Having just had my second Covid booster. The Global pandemic has had a major impact on the World, but hit the Western Nations the hardest (or is that due to how it has been reported by our media?). However, China in particular have lots of past history of culling the herd, dissenters and immorals. Similarly, Russia when it expanded and became the Soviet Union, also had a massive cull of those it thought was an internal threat.

            I don’t believe it is something that can be removed easily, as it’s been forcibly engrained for generations. For the Russia in particular to become more liberal. It must remove the wide scale corruption and the ruling mafia.

            Which is why the next person on Mad Vlad’s throne will likely be cut from the same cloth. The problem that they will have is that the Army has not only been wiped out effectively. But it’s reputation has also been destroyed. So the loosely held together republics, may see that as their opportunity to break free. Whose going to stop them?

            The bigger problem for Russia, is their ally China. China have been sending thousands of laborers and families across into SE Russia, to set up new farms, towns and industry. After loosing land to Russia in the 19th Century. Whose to say China, who look at southern Siberia with covetous eyes, won’t step in to manage the area?

          • “Isn’t the CCP’s mantra, the party is all, I am the party!”
            Yes Davey you are correct but the reality is something else entirely. It is currently run by the Military Committee and the 9 families that seem to dominated the CCP The system is both marxist and “something else entirely.” So let’s call them the 12 families, they are the real party.

            The clan system is still dominant in China and has been for thousands of years. Much like the Triad Tong organisations or the older Tiandihui. Despite the Marxist veneer, some clans remain more equal than others. It’s a complex setup best described by people on here more schooled in the subject. It makes the old USSR hierarchy look simple by comparison.
            To be honest it bores me to death. But roughly there are the Beijing and Shanghai clans. The latter shower are known as the Princes or marketers. They want a Nationalist market economy. The Beijing bunch are Neo-Maoists (NM) and the Komsomol Leninists (KL). The former NM are notionally supporters of social justice. Ensuring the central and coastal provinces develop equally. The KL are somewhere between the other two, dependant of the interests of their respective families.

            If Russia thinks the CCP is a reliable friend, it is in for a major shock. When they have extracted every scrap of technology from the Russians. They will then invade and help themselves to the regions with the natural resources they require. Perhaps turning Russia into a satellite slave state as they are doing in Tibet. With the excuse of returning the home of communism to its rightful state. Then who next?

            An interesting series on YouTube published by NTD is entitled: Nine Commentaries. Pt 1 What the Communist Party Is.
            Well worth investing time to watch every episode. Remember it is produced by the Nationalist Chinese, the Republic of China, who remain exiled on Taiwan. The high end chip producers mentioned by Mark. If nothing else it will serve as background to that particular near future conflict. The level of hatred and pure loathing between those two sides is quite astonishing.

          • Great passionate response Mark, thanks for taking the time.
            At this stage in it’s oil/gas industrial development. Russia needs no outside help to utilise current and future fields in the arctic. Plus the other regions. See the state owned ROSNEFT and incidently the Mikhail Borisovich Khodorkovsky affair. They have been doing this level of primary exploration since before the death of the USSR, corruption and all. BTW oil and gas and other key workers are exempt from the current military draft, so I’m told.

            “… incompetence, inadequacies and corruption of their political, economic and military infrastructure.” Those too have been a long standing staple of Russian society, as have the workarounds. Almost entirely orchestrated by the old KGB, it was their reason for existance. Espionage being a sideline they were well equipped to conduct. Those draconian fixes were dropped with perestroika. Unfortunately KGB Col Putin is bringing them back. Communism cannot function without corruption and things do get done, somehow. They will solve their issues or collapse but it will take time. I pray for the former. The Russian people deserve to be as free as they possibly can. Just like us.

            Granted western involvement with technology has been substantial recently but it is not vital. Russians have a different attitude when it comes to solving problems or making do when they can’t. They even have a humorous idiom from soviet times but sadly it has slipped my mind.

            I mentioned Iran not solely as potential western replacements in the oil industry but as mutually beneficial partners. Probably gaining more from the deal, if both nations wished to sever Western ties. China too has its own fully integrated global oil and gas concerns. It is already the largest ready market for Russian oil/gas and other products.

            Medium and high end chips etc. The big duh!
            Do not underestimate the CCPs ability to beg, steal and borrow what they desire. Particularly from their Taiwanese identical (genetically) twins. If the West is concerned about the CCP clandestine activities and infiltration, which we need to be. Just imagine the problem Taiwan has.

            CCP occupied mainland China, I use the term in support of the Taiwanese free Chinese people. – have the same institutionalised corruption and problems as all communists. They also have workarounds, including harvesting organs from those who act against the interests of the party and state.

            Looking at the Russian shopping list for microchips published today by Politico.
            “The chips are down: Putin scrambles for high-tech parts as his arsenal goes up in smoke.” – It seems that those components are used in many different products. Including mass produced consumer units. You will be aware that for decades, China has been the world’s largest recycler of used IT equipment and massed produced consumer units. Why, it’s not because they are concerned about the environment?They receive many thousands of shipping containers full of old PC base units, printers, monitors, mobile phones, laptops etc, every day. Not forgetting other consumer appliances with chips and transformers. Stripping their components for resale or processing to recover precious metals. In the most cost effective and unhealthy methods imaginable. Needless to say, if the CCP have a copy of the Russian “shopping list” they will be cooperating. It is afterall in the best interests of the CCP. To keep America and her allies fully involved with Ukraine and Russia for as long as possible.
            I have found several specialist UK companies, registered to dubious home addresses that operate regional WEEE businesses complying with a zero landfill disposal policy. Even visited one of them locally to buy some hard drives advertised on EBay by an employee. Witnessed with my own eyes, trolleys of WEEE being wrapped in cling film and loaded into shipping containers headed for the very inventive CCP occupied China. One province in particular, seems to be the centre for this “recycling industry.”

          • I was reading something over the weekend, albeit after a few too many beverages regarding Argon gas (feel free to correct me) shortages.

            As it is critical in the production of the chips however the worlds largest supplier of said gas is Russia.

            The US is trying to build factories to compensate but this will take at least 2 years.

          • I suspect you mean Neon where Ukraine and Russia both have large supplies. Work is well underway for a synthetic replacement. Fortunately in a way demand for chips of all sorts is falling. But I have no doubt that the current strategy of quietly not applying sanctions on critical items out of Russia, like Aluminium billets, Titanium castings and other items would include Neon if necessary. Russia has no problem selling as long as payment ends up as Rubles.

          • But I have no doubt that the current strategy of quietly not applying sanctions on critical items out of Russia, like Aluminium billets, Titanium castings and other items would include Neon if necessary.

            How would you know that? I note the return of the ‘chippy’ tone when you discuss Russia’s prospects. Your comments have this special quality of looking at the bright side of Putin’s unprovoked war against the Ukrainian people. It is almost as if you want him to win. Am I wrong?

          • Public information. For example Belgium’s imports from Russia are up around 70% this year, Holland’s 30+%. EU not only allows Aluminium but wood imports, its really only hydrocarbons that had or (probably) will have the real stop and some countries are more zealous (us) than many. The acid test will be diesel as US/Europe supplies are running dangerously low ahead of peak demand and Russia is the largest supplier.

            I don’t care either way who wins, I just feel the need to point out that, regardless of the propaganda it is odds on that Russia will. I just feel sad that the wealth of the UK is being frittered away on the steppes of Ukraine.

          • We should hold our heads high. We look to be number 1 in cutting Russian imports. Downside is we are probably damaging our economy more than most.

            Ukraine Battle Map
            @ukraine_map

            Trade volume change by country since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 (NYT)
            +310% India
            +198% Turkey
            +106% Brazil
            +81% Belgium
            +64% China
            +57% Spain
            +32% Netherlands
            +13% Japan
            -3% Germany
            -17% South Korea
            -35% USA
            -76% Sweden
            -79% UK
            2:11 AM · Nov 1, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

          • Playing with statistics used to work; now people are a lot cleverer. The percentages you cite are for what products? Are these increased purchases or price increases?

            A recent article on the B.B.C. online described the wait times Liquid Petroleum Gas carriers are experiencing to unload at Europe’s developing port facilities; there is going to be less effect of Russia’s aggressive use of the gas weapon on the European countries than you cheerfully predicted. The dire warnings aren’t being backed by observable effects. Keep hoping.

            If you don’t care who wins why boost Russia at every opportunity?

          • It was trade volume so no idea what the NYT based it on.

            Yes, there is a serious capacity problem at LNG processing ports. I stand by my forecast on major effect, the only way the EU can cope with the limited supply now available is to cut consumption and that means heavy industry and jobs. In France today Duralex, the pub glasses people and the largest glass producers there, ceased production for 5 months. The winding up of firms in both France and Germany is running way ahead of expectations. If you are not seeing the side effects you are looking in the wrong places. I am not hoping, its crazy suicidal decisions by the EU in particular.

            Anyway, its not Russia’s aggressive use of the gas weapon, it was those countries that imposed sanctions on purchasing gas that have shot themselves in the foot or a bit like treading on the wrong end of a fork so the handle smashes you in the face.

            I don’t care, as I say I am just pointing out that things might not be as you read or see them in our press/TV. You can believe that if you want, I don’t.

            The next episode is likely to be on the economic front when possibly millions more Ukrainians flee west, into countries, where their compatriots’ welcome is wearing thin, that are themselves about to suffer energy problems.

          • Highly likely in the NE. Estimated 25 days supply nationally and any refinery capable of producing diesel seems to be running flat out. If it is a hard winter there will be serious problems with trucking, heating and aircraft.

          • You begin by disclaiming your sources yet produce more such evidence from equally uncertain ‘sources’. The point about the Liquified Petroleum Gas imports was that supply is exceeding capacity to off load it. The Dutch – brilliant engineers – have found one solution and the Germans are busy – very – constructing new terminals. Nordstream I&II are so last year.

            It will take more than the decline of beer glass manufacturing to do for the E.U., even after France’s best efforts to compromise with aggression.

            You do care who wins, though. Some honesty here, perhaps, is required of you; if you cannot empathise with Ukrainian civilian victims of terror attacks you might be able to sympathise with undertrained and poorly equipped Russians young and old being killed in numbers by a very agile and astute adversary for the vanity project of an embittered psychopath.

          • Barry, he will ignore your reply, or post just some generic irrelevant chuff as he cannot/unable to/scared to answer, as the leash may get tighter, and the low flying tank turret display team may be getting another unwilling recruit.

          • I think Jim has got JohninMagnitogorsk bang to rights. ‘His’ techniques are those of a trained and skilled operative. Notice how he shifts and deflects and circles round. This is expert trolling and straight out of Ivan’s instructions to counter interrogation; keep talking, don’t be confrontational or allow yourself to be provoked, change the subject and try always to study the interrogators mind set, spot their ‘reasonableness’ and play it back to them. What Ivan hopes to achieve on a blog such as this is beyond me; but Jim knows a thing or two about the ‘metrics’.

            On the subject of digging for useful information, ‘atmospherics’ and so on, the B’stard British Broadcasting clique is currently moaning about not having access in the Ukraine front in Kherson, presumably to pass on useful information to the Kremlin from the frontline such as ‘the bombs are incorrectly fused at low level’. What a shower.

  5. I understand various Western governments are about to give Ukraine, their old Hawk SAM.
    Also, I spotted some Ukrainian snipers using .338 Accuracy International rifles.

    • John wrote:

      “”I understand various Western governments are about to give Ukraine, their old Hawk SAM.””

      Only one country so far and that is Spain which is supplying the Ukr with 4 units. Spain spent a lot of money these past few years upgrading them with new digital interfaces, new warheads and new rocket engines. Spain is also handing over (Dont know how many) some of its Aspide Spada 2000 missile systems:

      • The US has sent more actual military aid then everyone else combined. That’s a real story. Now the US is up to donating 1.5 million rounds of artillery ammunition not to mention the fancy rocket artillery that comes from the United States of America.

        • The US though is running low & are trying to find more manufacturers in North America that may be capable of producing 155mm rounds with a bit of help. Canada is ordering replacement ammo from South Korea. Australia has 2 plants starting production – one producing US design shells & the other German designs (unrelated to Ukraine). I understand that Germany has placed orders with Australia, but not sure if it’s completed shells or shell casings. It appears most nations have forgotten how much ammo gets used up in a peer on peer fight.

          • Update – it appears it may have been shell casings, unless things have changed. JohnL may have an more information.

          • The next US arms allocation announced this week only includes 500 Excalibur 155mm shells, no standard ones.

          • JIMK wrote:

            “”The next US arms allocation announced this week only includes 500 Excalibur 155mm shells, no standard ones.””

            It helps the narrative, if it was made clear that the US is not the only nation supplying Ukraine with Guided Artillery rounds Kyiv has also been furnished with the following:
            Germany: SMArt 155
            Sweden: 155 BONUS
            Italy: Vulcano 155mm (Also supplied by Germany)
            French: KATANA 155mm
            The US has also provided Ukraine with M1156 Precision Guidance Kits which is a much cheaper add on to your bog-standard round which turns dumb rounds into guided one (However it has a Circular Error Probable (CE) of 50 metres compared to the 4 for the Excalibur)
            Lets not forget that the Ukraine has been using its own Kvitnyk (152mm) round to lethal effect from day 1, and I wouldn’t be surprised if amongst the vast amount of ammunition the Ukrainians have taken off the Russians from former occupied lands that they didn’t end up with a load of the Russian Krasnopol rounds.

            My point yes the war inside the Ukraine is ammo hungry, but the US is not the only provider of Guided Artillery rounds

            FYI, Smart and BONUS are not true direct strike artillery rounds as such but rather break up over the target , deploying 2 smart munitions on parachutes which come fitted with infrared sensors and LiDAR that compares the detected vehicles with a programmable target database, which allows them to target only military targets with an Explosively formed penetrator (EFP) from above. (just like an NLAW) 

            The round to keep an eye on is the French KATANA as it is hot off the press and supposed to be much better than the
            Excalibur

          • Thank you for the extra information. Is there a standard NATO control interface that all the rounds conform to? If not, it must be a logistical nightmare, trying to match an incoming new batch of rounds with its associated guns somewhere on the front.

            It will be interesting to see when the US feels able to restart standard 155mm shipments.

          • If I had one and if I’d tried to I would think that I’d be laughed out of court. Good job your comment was in jest as I suspect you are smarter than that. A quick tour of websites or collecting glossies at trade shows would have generated a mountain more data than that.

          • Well if they are performing their duties correctly it’s very possible you don’t even know you have one! Some of the stuff you manage to illicit from others on here by your carefully constructed provocations on here is certainly more useful from a Russian operational sense than they probably realise. Intel is about putting together seemingly innocuous and unrelated ‘ bits and bobs’ as you likely we’ll know and of course it’s a long game isn’t it 😉?

          • It seems the Ukr are not fazed by logistics unlike your Orcs!
            you can see Jim’s point can’t you? Fishing for info on the interface and restarting ammo production. Still if it keeps you out of the front line 🙄

          • Has any credible independent organization been able to compile balance sheets of munitions and weapons systems donated vs. those reordered by the donor countries? Understand that there have been glib promises to restock by bureaucrats and politicians, but independent verification of actual results would be more reassuring.

        • Whats the US annual expenditure on military equipment compared to all of the other countries?

          Genuine question, it probably is significantly more than all of the countries combined which have supplied aid to Ukraine aswell!

  6. Small correction. The Trophy active protection system (APS) uses fragmented tungsten cubes to destroy an incoming anti-tank guided missile (ATGM)/rocket propelled grenade (RPG). Think of it more like a turreted Claymore mine.

    The Trophy’s turret is aimed towards the threat, where an explosive charge fires the pre-cut tungsten sheet towards the threat. The sheet breaks up in to a tight pack of cubes. These can destroy the missile’s seeker/fuse. They can also set off the missile’s warhead. The tungsten fragments have shown in trials that they can also take out a high explosive anti tank (HEAT) shell fired from a tank, by prematurely activating the warhead’s fuse.

    There is another Israeli APS that uses purely the explosive blast effect to take out threats. That is called Iron Fist. It is the only known and publically demonstrated APS that has shown that it can deflect a tank fired armour piercing fin stabilized discarding sabot (APFSDS) round. The Dutch CV90s will be the first vehicle to mount Iron Fist outside of Israel.

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