UK says Russian advances mask heavy losses and weak gains

The government has set out a detailed defence and security assessment of the war in Ukraine, with the Minister for Defence Readiness and Industry, Luke Pollard, arguing that Russian battlefield narratives have repeatedly failed when set against intelligence and operational reality.

Opening his statement to the House, Pollard framed the conflict in stark human and strategic terms, noting that Ukrainians are now marking “their 1,394th day of resistance since Putin’s full-scale invasion, and their fourth Christmas of the war.” He said the UK’s objective remains to secure a just and lasting peace by ensuring Ukraine is “in the best possible position on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.”

Pollard directly challenged Moscow’s public messaging, stating that claims of progress “have been exposed as disinformation time and time again.” He pointed to the cost of Russia’s campaign, telling MPs that “Russia has suffered over 1 million casualties to gain around 1% of Ukrainian territory since the stabilisation of the frontline in 2022.”

He highlighted the fighting around Pokrovsk as emblematic of this imbalance. According to Pollard, “in more than a year of fighting for the comparatively small city of Pokrovsk, Russia has advanced only 15 km, equivalent to 40 metres a day.” He added that despite recent announcements from the Kremlin, “although Putin claimed to have finally taken that city ahead of the recent visit of the American negotiating team, it is our defence intelligence’s assessment that pockets of Ukrainian resistance continue to operate there.”

The minister argued that these battlefield realities underpin Ukraine’s diplomatic leverage. “Right across the frontline, it is Ukraine’s continued strength on the battlefield that gives it strength at the negotiating table,” he said, adding that the UK will “continue to work with our allies to boost that strength and secure the credible security guarantees needed to underpin a just and lasting peace.”

Pollard set this within a broader strategic frame, warning “As we approach the fifth year of fighting since Russia’s full-scale invasion, this Government are in no doubt that the frontline of UK and European security continues to run through Ukraine,” he told the House. He contrasted the present moment with the situation a year earlier, saying “twelve months ago, there was no clear route to ending the war,” whereas “today, the US-initiated peace process represents the brightest path towards securing a just and lasting peace that we have seen since the start of the full-scale invasion.”

To support that process, Pollard confirmed intensified military planning. “The Defence Secretary directed military chiefs this week to review and update the Multinational Force Ukraine military plans, so that we are ready to deploy when peace comes,” he said. This includes “revising and raising readiness levels as we continue to work with allies to maximise pressure on Putin’s war machine, to strengthen Ukraine’s hand on the battlefield and to grow its defence industrial base.”

The statement also set out the scale of UK support already delivered. Pollard said the government has provided “a record £4.5 billion military support package this year,” including “tens of thousands of rounds of advanced missiles and ammunition, 85,000 drones, up from the 10,000 gifted last year, and the new Gravehawk air defence system.” He added that more than “62,000 Ukrainians” have now been trained in the UK, with the programme extended until at least the end of 2026.

On industrial cooperation, Pollard said the UK is working to ensure Ukraine’s defence future rests increasingly in its own hands. “To boost Ukraine’s indigenous defence industrial base so that its destiny is increasingly in its own hands, I have led further trade missions to Kyiv,” he said, citing new government-to-government agreements and a £1.6 billion deal for 5,000 lightweight air defence missiles, supporting 700 jobs at Thales in Belfast. Pollard told MPs that “Russia’s economy is getting weaker: military spending is around 40% of the budget. Its VAT is rising and its social spending is falling.” He said the UK will “continue to work with our allies to tighten the screw on the Russian economy,” referencing new sanctions across Russia’s oil, military and financial sectors, alongside efforts with EU and G7 partners to unlock support for Ukraine using immobilised Russian assets.

Pollard concluded by underlining the wider stakes, warning that “with increasing grey-zone attacks across Europe, Ukraine’s security remains our security.” He added that the government remains committed to standing with Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” and reaffirmed that any peace must be built with Ukraine at its centre, because “Ukraine is too militarily powerful and too determined to defend its sovereignty for peace to be built over the country’s head.”