BAE Systems expanding Barrow submarine facility

They’re at the minimum keeping the surface fleet at the same numbers but increasing lethality, now they’re actually fitting the T31 with mk41 vls which is a breath of fresh air for the RN. Coupled with NSM and the future anglo-french missiles under development, it looks like the RN is finally getting what it needs.

Sure but 1500 people is just 1% of the total personnel of the forces, we use to have 15 SSN on the same basing foot print we have today so it’s doable. Several boats will be forward deployed in Australia as well. It’s ambitious but all very doable for a government with a £ 1trillion annual budget.

Jim, wrong way of looking at the personnel problem. An extra 1500 submariners is approx an extra 25% in their numbers, a substantial increase in what is essentially a small force within the navy.

Not only that, but that number is spread across all branches and ranks. Getting experienced SNCO’s will be an issue, especially the nuclear qualified watchkeepers, which are already at a pinch point.
To achieve this increase, the RN is going to have to start increasing numbers of submariners from around about 2027/29 depending on the trade. Not an easy task as they need to grow the SNCO’s over a longer period.
With regard to nuclear qualified watchkeepers the problem is increased as we are helping the RAN get upto speed on this side of things. That inevitably means less trg slots for the UK! Not an easy fix mate.

I understood that at least before COVID we had a shortage of submarine personal. One of my mates had been out for a few years prior to that and was offered a number of time to rejoin. pretty sure there were sign on payments etc

That wouldn’t at all surprise me. Just before I left the navy, certain trades
/ranks were being offered bonuses of upto 50k to sign on for a further 5 years. It is not uncommon to target pinch trades.

My mate was a engineer in a submarine , so I expect his trade was in demand. wouldn’t have suited his home life so he turned it down

Agree. Sound logic.

Let’s be honest the 15 boats would be something not achieved for a 3 decades..so staffing is not really a problem as long as they plan the training pipelines.

the big issue will be the first new SSNs will probably come on line 2038-2040 at which point astute will be 30+ years old so we may actually see a drop in numbers in late 2030…then in the mid 2040s we would see an increase in numbers…that may be a bit of a staffing crunch point if it’s not well planned…infact the service may have to run over establishment for a number of years ( more staff less deployments) to make sure the workforce pipelines work.

Numbers wont go below 7 once all Astute are in service. Realistically if we wanted 15 submarines the build rate would have to be one every 16 months at the slowest. If the first enters service 2038 and another was commissioned every 16 months after then by 2050 there would be 10/11 in service. If each Astute has a 30 year life there would also be 3/4 Astute.
2040 hopefully 2 SSN AUKUS would be in service as well as all Astutes, save maybe Astute herself.

Yes but Astute is going to be 31 years old in 2038 so even if everything goes completely to plan and we get SSN AUKUS commissioned by 2038..Astute may not last that long…when you have to decommission a nuclear sub you have to decommission it…..even then it generally takes the first boat to be considered operational ( 4 in the case of ASUTE) so if commissioned in 2038 it SSN AUKUS we not be operational until the early 2040s.

If you consider astute it took 9.5 years from keel being laid down to commissioning and then another 4 years before she was operational for 14 years from keel lay down to operational…unless they get the SSN AUKUS first keel down by 2024-5 Astute will be at the end of its life well before the first SSN AUKUS has been declared operational…If there is any programme delay say slipping commissioning to the early 2040s it’s a big big problem…so I would happily lay a bet we end up with 6 active boats in the late 2030s.

That was because a lot of expertise had been lost, that won’t happen with SSNR. Astute took 9.5 years from being laid down to being commissioned.
SSNR will be built faster as shown in this article so it’ll take much less than 9.5 years.
To be commissioned in 2038 it would probably have to be laid down early 2030s at the latest.

The only thing to remember is that commissioned is not operational…ASUTE as boat one took four years from commissioning to being fully operational..so yes we may get a boat commissioned for 2038..but it’s going to be spending a lot of time playing learn the boat.

I’m hoping a shift to the left with first SSNr in service much much earlier. SSNr is likely to be a proven design using technology from the dreadnought programme. Might even be a shortened Dreadnought hull form with the missile compartments replaced by multiple Virginia class payload bays.

Hi mate, sorry to disagree, but it will be a problem, more so in certain branches. See my reply to @Jim above.

Agree we will have to run over established strengths, but it will be for the better part of a decade if we do plan to acquire 15 SSN(R) boats.

I personally think that we will get SSN(R) before 2038ish, as the first two A boats will be well into their 30’s by then, having been run hard, will most likely be out of usable fuel well before then. Vanguards refit didn’t go well, there are no other SM’s due a scheduled re-fuelling in the next decade or so. In fact I think thats it for scheduled re-fuellings now. Any lessons learnt/experience gained will be long gone by then.

The MOD know the state of each boats core life, and will know given current/future deployments how long we will have the SMs available, thus what potential gaps in numbers we might have from the mid 30’s onwards. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw 1 possibly 2 A boats going in for a un-scheduled re-fuelling around 2030ish, or, they will have to take a hit on numbers. Not sure if thats something the MOD would wish to do given China’s surge to be ‘top dog’ in the world.

Hi deep I will bow to your knowledge on manning issues…and I agree they will need to look at the training pipelines and start enlarging the establishment very soon ( strategic workforces changes always need to be started a decade in advance…it’s why we alway cock it up) I’m not sure about getting SSNR before 2038ish…look how long it took ASUTE after keel laying to be commissioned and then declared operational….unless HMG suddenly get to agreeing the design and contract ultra quick (say for 2025, and if we take type 31 as an aberration when have HMG ever been swift) then the keel is laid by 2026 and there are no program issues it would be a challenge to get the boat declared operational for 2038…and on historic record there are alway problems for at least the first boat. I would honestly bet we end up a boat down from 2037-38.

Hi Jonathan,

the manning issue isnt helped by the need to first get people qualified as a Submariner either a newbe or someone coming from a different class of SM/having to re-qualify.

SSBN’s probably take an average of 20-25 trainees to sea, a mixture of brand new out of the box and those having to re-qualify. They all sleep on camp beds in the missile compartment (2 Deck). When qualified they are integrated into a watchkeeping position within their trade to gain some experience.

The same applies to those on a SSN, although they generally only take 10-15 to sea, as being a smaller vessel, they are by tradition (necessity) accommodated in the ‘bomb shop’ (WSC) in lieu of weapons. Can’t say that sleeping next to a Spearfish does it for me!!

There are only so many trg slots available per SM per trip. Now we are assisting RAN build up experience (totally the right thing to do), we are inevitably short on slots for ourselves.

Ref SSN(R), its only speculation on my part. We are either going to take a hit on hull availability, within the small numbers we will have – 7, or, MOD are going to have to do something else entirely. There is nothing else they can do.

TBF, much of what went wrong with Astute was down to the lack of orders after Vengeance was built. We lost a lot of very skilled niche workers, which you can’t just get by opening a box so to speak. I imagine that SSN(R) hull 1 will be laid down somewhere between Dreadnought hull 3 and 4, so what happened with Astute doesn’t happen again. Agree that we need to settle on a design very soonish, just to get build started before work on Dreadnoughts comes to an end.

That training pipe is a real problem…and I thought I had issues when trying to get emergency care advanced practitioners trained….all I had to find was a qualified mentor and educator for each as well as the right number of cases ….not how to cram their sleeping quarters in a itty bitty space…gives me a whole new perspective on management of training pipelines….you could almost see the use for leasing a couple of electric boats to act as training establishments if your thinking of doubling the number of hulls over a decade.

Alternatively, RN may request loan of, w/ option to buy, several Virginia class from USN. Mate’s rates; stranger things yet may be afoot. 🤔😉

Fifteen SSNs would more than double currently envisioned (circa 2026) RN fleet; an expansion to twelve boats might perhaps be a more realistic undertaking. This would still provide a meaningful increase in numbers, which would be truly appreciated by your allies. An open question would be whether the probable successor government will continue to support this program? Can any Western democracy sustain a long-term military rearmament program, even when clearly required? Dunno. 🤔

Not entirely sure on option to loan/buy some Virgina’s for us, but an interesting proposition nonetheless.

Increasing out SSN fleet to fifteen is a huge undertaking for us even if spread over an extra 10;years or so. 1SL has indicated 8 at least last year, then we had the ‘SM v Frigate’ debate, so to me all indicates that we will probably grow our SSN numbers, but believe 10-12 is a much more realistic number, whilst probably also growing our surface fleet. Can easily see 8 T83 combatants being ordered depending on size and capability requirements. Suspect it might be more cruiser esq then we imagine.

Of course, the impending ‘defence paper’ refresh is due very soon, so will probably have a major impact on what we need to do, can see ‘cuts’ in the short term – again! Which just makes it more expensive further down the line.

Would be truly inspiring and brave of HMG if it actually stopped any perceived cuts and put some actual investment and growth into our AF. We will see….

Amazing how quickly rational people can reach consensus. A shame how deaf, dumb and mute the political class is, across Western democracies, w/ respect to defense/defence. Entirely predictable results; oh well…🤔😳

I think official stance in warships IFR report was a minimum of 12 upto possibly 15. 15 would be excellent news.

Ah, their AUKUS issue likely. I’ll go and recheck. Cheers.

Loaned Virginias will be returned to US and ‘crew sent’ to UK for new SSNR as they near final completion.
RAN has difficulty manning its SSK in service now, so upping the nuclear fleet numbers beyond 2 -3 in service at one time is wishful thinking.

15 subs is not the end of the world for the defence budget. A modest increase of £1-2 billion a year can achieve it. you also only need 700 or 800 more crew out of close to 200,000 military personnel. That’s not a massive ask.

However if they were not planning to up the fleet size then there would be no need to massively increase the size of the yard at Barrow.

SSN AUKUS is going to be the centre peace of the most important alliance of the 21st century.

SSN’s will be the main thing we bring to the party because it’s the only thing the US is desperately short off and can’t just build as it pleases.

Money will be found, it’s also important to remember that the reason Australia is dumping SSK is that because anything other than an SSN will find it difficult to operate with in thousands of miles of China due to SAR satellite constellations and hypersonic weapons.

Personally I can live with less frigates if we get way more SSN’s.

RN wouldn’t announce that they plan to have less SSN than Australia. Australia has just 6 SSK and have massive issues. SSN are the best thing we can give NATO and our best offensive asset, I expect at least ten SSN.