‘We’ve got lethal and non-lethal aid into Ukraine since the invasion’ says Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.

In an interview with Sky News, Ben Wallace confirmed that the UK is sending supplies to Ukraine including of a non-lethal variety.

Who is doing what?

Visit the below article to see what has been sent to the country.

Who has given what to help Ukraine?

What’s happening now?

The bulk of Putin’s ground forces remain more than 30km to the north of Kyiv their advance having been slowed by Ukrainian forces defending Hostomel airfield, a key Russian objective for day one of the conflict.

The Ministry of Defence said earlier today:

“The bulk of Putin’s ground forces remain more than 30km to the north of Kyiv their advance having been slowed by Ukrainian forces defending Hostomel airfield, a key Russian objective for day one of the conflict. Heavy fighting continues around Chernihiv and Kharkiv however both cities remain under Ukrainian control.

Logistical failures and staunch Ukrainian resistance continue to frustrate the Russian advance. Despite continued attempts to suppress details of the conflict from the Russian population, the Russian Armed Forces have for the first time been forced to acknowledge suffering casualties.”

An update on the progress of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

 

George Allison
George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
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272 COMMENTS

  2. Interesting that Mr Elwood has come out and said if you don’t have military training please do not go to Ukraine. Pointing out that someone without training who does not even speak the language is a liability. I can see his point.

    I was thinking what more NATO and the U.K. could do and one think would seem to be setting up some role 2 and 3 casually receiving centres as well a set up an operational care pathway so giving the Ukraine options for medical evacuations. Part of that pathway should be bringing these solders and providing them with rehabilitation.

      • Don’t disagree, the only problem is when you get caught out, like Pakistan did in the kargil-Drass….. they used little green men intermixed and pretending to be freedom fighters, on India found evidence they were Pakistan regulars and exposed the whole plot…

        • Very true, it would be a potential 1 way mission for anyone going but surely the invite from Ukraine for anyone to join in would be a good disclaimer for various governments to deny any knowledge of said personnel?

          • but who is to say a load of them have signed off and gone over there, it’s a thing that has always been done that way there is complete plausible deniability, but this would never be made public…

          • Totally agree, the success on the ground im sure is coming with outside help, even if not a wide ranging level of help surely some very experienced people are around helping out with tactics.

          • There were plenty of others including Executive Outcomes, Armor Group.

            None really the right fit for a general war like this though…

          • Wasn’t that American? We have had Private Military Companies (PMCs) that can supply hired guns – Mike Hoare, Keeny Meeny Services, Executive Outcomes?

      • Not such a good plan. Much better for Ukrainians to do the fighting. Perhaps we could set up training camps in neighbouring countries and supply them with as many weapons as they like from every country on this planet. At the end of the day the Russian Army will figure out that their true enemy is in Moscow – until then they must be defeated by Ukrainians who in turn are supported by the world.

        • How much time exactly do you think Ukraine has for training people who are totally new to this? They dont.

          The best of the best on the ground causing complete chaos for the enemy would be incredibly beneficial, if its not already happening.

          • No evidence on the matter but I would be very surprised if there were not a great many Ukrainian linked personnel in various western forces and special forces especially the Poles who have had a million Ukrainians moved there in recent times alone. I suspect some will be operating over the border to liaise with the defenders there at the very least.

          • James it may be necessary for NATO to step into this conflict. However at this time powerful messages are spreading throughout Russia directly from Russian troops on the front line saying they are murdering Ukrainian families just like their own families at home. This is what will unravel the Putin regime. That is why we should be careful to help the Ukrainians to win their own war and not take over. When and if we have to take over it will be to stop a humanitarian crisis.

          • There are precedents for NATO stepping in (Kosovo, Libya, Bosnia) normally on humanitarian grounds. This is not desirable in my view – Ukraine will probably win this on their own. That said if Russia start acting wrecklessly the NATO community might demand something is done and therefore it might be done under the umbrella of NATO.

          • You are right. The concern is more about engaging with a country as powerful militarily as Russia and the possibility of WW3 starting.

      • Right upto the point some of them get captured and paraded on Russian TV to “prove” NATO is interfering in Ukraine and then the Russians have leverage to get the UK to turn off the weapons supply. We are still playing chess with Putin so no need to gift him some pieces…This has to be an on the ground Ukraine fight much though we would like to see regular western forces make a difference. What this is showing us is that the much vaunted Russian army would be decimated trying to push West to take on NATO and the only card they have to play is deployment of nuclear weapons.

        • No of course someone being captured and being put in front of the cameras (ISIS style) by Russia saying this is proof Nato are involved as Dave here from Hull has been captured would not go down well.

          However it is now a realistic situation, people from the UK and other countries are heading over to fight, only a matter of time before someone gets taken prisoner who doesnt speak Russian or Ukrainian.

      • I’d wager a certain three letter agency is out and about doing that sort of stuff already, Wouldn’t surprise me if “The Increment” is doing bits and bobs also.

      • Not a great Idea if caught they’d be treated the same as Hitlers Commando order Tortured and Executed then Putins Propaganda machine would show undeniable proof of NATO agression towards the peace loving Liberating forces of the Russian Federation James

        • So what happens when one of the Volunteers from the UK heads over with zero military background and inevitably gets caught and the same scenario ensues?

          • Then on their heads be it this isn’t going too be plesent if Putin gets held up and with the Chechens now siding with him then Civvies taking up Arms especially westerners would be in Putins eyes Terrorists and you’ve seen what he’s capable of James

    • Ukrainian National males living in the UK are going back to fight regardless of any training but at least they speak the Lingo whereas Brits who got on the Lunch time Sky News and have no training or speak the lingo are more of a liability same happen in 93 Croatia/Bosnia no need for people like that who just want too have a story down the pub when or if they get back and their not be entitled too a War disability pension if injured so stay at home there’s enough corners of a foreign field that are fore ever England don’t make anymore

      • Completely agree Tommo, if you don’t have anything to offer your just creating a problem. Ukraine has plenty of military age men and women, it’s got a population of 43 million with a younger demographic than the U.K.

        I think what we could be doing with people who want to help but don’t have military experience is get them doing things that will support the population of Ukraine in everything else they are going to need we are going to be having a whole national population on the move, so health and social care workers who can support in places like Poland, people collecting cloths and resources then drivers to take them to Poland. Europe is going to have to wrap itself around the population of Ukraine and give them all the support they can.

        Its one of the things I think the U.K. could do really well the NHS and militarily medical services in the U.K. are very good indeed at this sort of thing ( what we did in Africa for our Ebola response was strong stuff) so I think we should be deploying our role 2 and 3 resources to boarding Countries and offer Ukraine an operational care pathway for injured service personal and civilians..From the role 2 and 3 sites all the way to recovery in the U.K…..that would be big indeed.

        • 👍 plato said “Only the dead have seen the end of War” what we should do is as you have suggested we don’t need Putin at the end of his long table spouting off that the British are sending SOF mercenaries he’ll blame that on Liz truss as well Johnathan

    • Probably best that non Ukranians avoid this fight, because if they get caught it will be a propaganda tool and will only give credence to Putin’s lies to the Russian public that Ukraine crisis has been created by the west. In the end i dont think a few thousand foreign soldiers will change events on the ground significantly, wheras Russian public opinion may force Putin to back down.

        • Sky News today 2nd, March talking of Putins Propaganda machine and that at least 70% of your average Russian on the street thinks that the Ukrainians are welcoming their Russian Liberators and that they back Putin for his invasion too free Ukraine from Nazism .That how his Propaganda apparatus works He’s the Saviour of Slavic nationals Dave

      • It happened with Pakistan, they good found out doing a little green men operation in 1999 and it cost them when India published all their evidence. India won the operation on that evidence.

    • On a few threads I posited over the weekend MilFd Hospitals to take all casevacs from UKR.

      Supervised by ICRC and POWs returned.

      UKR returned to fighting fit and the potential to reform and or train on new kit.

      • Yes Barry, I really think that’s something we can do. As well as offer a care pathway to the U.K and NHS care. for the full trauma cases and offer a good rehabilitation package. Ukraine will not be in a place to do all the rehab for its wounded veterans and let’s be honest these people are on the frontline for not just their nation ( which is their driver obviously) but for all liberal democratic European nations.

    • Liz Truss supported British nationals going to Ukraine to fight on Sophie Raworths’ Sunday (6th March) political show – then CDS popped up and said the opposite.
      I remember this Government deemed it an offence not so long ago to go to Syria or Iraq to fight ISIS, which was weird – do they like bloodthirsty terrorists who behead innocents?
      I like your other point about treating casualties.

  3. what is really sad, outside of the clear loss of life etc. is that it has taken Mr Putin to go over the edge for the UK to understand that we have underfunded our military for the last 30 years.

    I am also surprised we had so much stock of some of this stuff.

    • Lets hope the MOD are placing orders to replace those provided weapons as we may need them ourselves soon enough.
      Putin has clearly lost the plot and the Russian people will be the big loser in the end. I feel for them but they have never actually known FREEDOM as we know it. Someone needs to put a bullet in his head and end this madness.

    • Agreed Pacman27,

      However, the NLAW purchase, like the first tranche of Stormshadow, was surprisingly significant for UK munitions purchases. In NLAW’s case 20,000 were ordered by the UK and there may have been further procurements of the weapon over the last 15 years or so.

      From what I have read recently it seems the Ukrainian’s really appreciate NLAW. Easy to use and very effective. There have definately been a number of Russian tanks knocked out and at least one I have seen could have been a top attack hit.

      Cheers CR

      • They are still a current production item.

        The ongoing replenishment of the stocks was part of the contract that was, in part, published.

        Clearly to keep troops current a certain number need to be fired off and they have a shelf life.

        I’d be amazed if we had more than 20k of them as that is a really, really big and impressive number anyway.

        Lets be positive we had the right weapon in the right quantity to do what needed to be done. That is now proven.

        • Hi Supportive Bloke,

          I took the 20k to be a total over a period of time possibly a number of years, but as you say they have a shelf life and troops need to be kept current on the system.

          I thought they were still in production but good to know, hopefully the replenishment element of the contract includes a ‘war emergency’ clause that will see production ramped up to rapidly replenish the British Army’s stocks – just in case.

          Cheers CR

      • Yes for a Country that’s been neutral for so very long Sweden truly are exceptional in their ability to create top notch kit on a budget even if we also further developed this particular weapon and produce it. Promises well for the Tempest cooperation and why even if non NATO there is no way we could stand by and not defend it if Putin ever got away with his present charade and truly thought he was unstoppable.

      • Did they actually buy 20k? I read that they were considering an order of upto that number but couldn’t find any confirmation either way.

      • The Russians are clearly scared of them (and were prior to invading) if the ‘cages’ they’ve put over the top of some tanks is anything to go by.

        NLAWs are a perfect guerrilla weapon. The short range doesn’t really matter.

        • The cages are for submunitions from cluster bombs/rockets and small UCAV carried PGM’s.

          They offer no real resistance to NLAW or Javelin. The Russian’s know this…

      • I was thinking that. Unless there’s something I’ve missed, we haven’t announced any changes.
        I’m still hoping we will announce something soon, though. But I’m not getting my hopes up

          • The UK needs a UOR purchase of at least one high end SAM to protect London from Putin’s blackmail. Aegis Ashore/THAAD/Arrow/SAMP-T, any of those.

          • The figure of £24 bn includes a good dose of spin. The Public Accounts Committee and others said that HMG was double-counting, the real figure was €16bn or something.

            A lot of money, yes, but it only covers the current black hole in equipment expenditure – the yawning gap between what we have ordered and what we have in the budget.

            70% of the black hole is apparently down to naval procurement, so we won’t see very much of the equipment the RAF and Army badly need. Not sure we have our procurement policies the right way round, the situation in Ukraine underlines the primary importance of combat air and boots on the ground, with the navy a fairly distant third.

          • Right. ‘Global Britain’ requires a revitalised and somewhat larger Navy. ‘European Britain’ needs spending on RAF and British Army, especially the latter.

          • If the UK was still spending 4.8%.of GDP on defence, I would agree with your NATO/Global Britain split strategic approac..

            However we are not spending half of that. We are down to about a third of the army combat brigades and fast jet squadrons we need just to play a limited part in NATO Europe and defence of UK/North Sea airspace There is currently little to spare for out-of-area garrisons and global flag-waving.

            The RN are the principal enthusiasts for Global Britain. The question to them is: can you field an ASW squadron and a submaine squadron in the norith Atlantic to counter the nascent threat from Russian submarines?

            The answers are currently no and no. That should be the RN’s first and urgent priority. Cruising the world to fly the flag and pretend we are some big naval power is not a realistic scenario, strategy or priority, 5 T31s is quite enough.of a token gesture out of area.on our current limited means.

          • My strategic approach is more realistic than all 3 services being fully globa at scale. RN is one of only two Level 2 bluewater navies in the world, the other being the French navy – RN is the 2nd or 3rd largest navy in NATO. They have the heritage, background and equipment to be global despite savage reductions – we had 28 attack subs in 1982 and now have a quarter that number. They certainly need far more hulls – and to do the tasks that you mention.

            I am advocating a European focus for Army and RAF to reflect their small numbers, but with the ability to occasionally do very limited small-scale operations outside Europe (certainly not 6-8,000 to an Afghanistan-like conflict).

            We do not have so many out of (NATO) area garrisons (the Falklands is the most significant), so I don’t see that this is a manpower drain.

          • I wonder what the £24bn is committed to? I think that is new money but spread over 4 years. Did we ever get a breakdown?

        • The lead time is a problem. You could not increase AFV numbers in a short period. Even increasing NLAW numbers would take months. It takes a year to recruit a soldier and 6 months to train an infantryman to a deployable standard.

      • They are in Germany. Doubt we’ll get much more, although maybe some special funding for ballistic defence given recent events. The radar could be brought forward, along with upgrades to T45 and perhaps even a few shore based Aster 30 Block 2 bmd silos when that is ready. I’m not expecting anything of substance though.

          • No nothing at all but that wasn’t the point. It’s what are we missing that could be plugged if defence gets a funding boost. Given recent threats, some kind of ballistic missile defence could be on the list. All conjecture of course.

          • Thanks Rob. My point is that land warfare in Europe is a reality and our army is small and woefully equipped. It has been allowed to wither on the vine. The new capabilities (Ajax, Boxer) are flawed and are years from being fielded in good numbers. I think the politicos will dodge the ABM defence.

      • its a good point James – I think we do understand, but whether that turns into action or whether we continue to sleepwalk forward is another thing.

        The energy secretary is spouting a load of nonsense about North Sea oil and gas this morning, what he fails to say is that the majority is exported from our shores and about 25% is owned by China.

        We can no more insist it is sold to us than we can land on the moon…

        For me we need to sort out some home truths around energy, food security, defence and policing fast and unfortunately that means spending loads of money, upside is if we do it now we can get ahead of everyone else on the planet and the government have revenue streams forever more.

      • We are spending 190Bn on equipment between now and 2030. That’s not to be sniffed at. But more is always welcome. And I think we will see a fundamental change towards defence spending. But I don’t think we will see a big spending spree announcement in the next few day’s. Even after Germanys big announcement, they will still be spending less than us. But the gap will be much closer.

        • What exactly is our % of GDP on defence spending between now and 2030?

          Everyone keeps going on that we are only just meeting the 2% (but not meeting it in real terms) however we have increased overall spending by quite a bit in the last 12 months.

        • I don’t think you can just name a figure and spend it. The government has done that with the NHS during covid and we actually really struggled to spend it…you cannot just magic up more trained staff or building.

          I hope that they will do is:

          1)stop any cuts to manpower, put money into retaining all the skilled soldiers, sailors and airmen we can.

          2) upgrade present, equipment, fill gaps with off the shelf offers. More air defence, more fires etc.

          3) Open up the programmes we already have and make sure that funding is not delayed…and where production can be sped up do that. so a new tranche of typhoon and only cut the tranche one when they have replacements. speed up T26 and 31 also look to fund ongoing building at a max building rate into the 2030s. Focus on making all the hulls as due purpose as possible ( Mk41 and max out on Seaceptoretc. Speed up F35B purchases etc.

          4) open up more infrastructure and estate, we have moved a lot of capabilities into single sites that can be held at risk by cruise and ballistic missiles. We need a greater spread of airbases etc.

          5) proper 10 year plan that focuses on what we actually need as a nation to both defends our own areas of influence and what we need to be more active in nato as well as support in the Pacific. Not what we can afford with a 2% budget, but what we need to fight a major war with a peer. If that means 4% or 5% gdp the British public need to be pursued to suck it up.

        • It is people that we really need to spend on, especially accomodation.
          Do remember though, we must leave something for squaddies to whinge about.

          • Yesterday’s Daily telegraph had a story on how the Army will be catering their uniforms for the Vegan squaddie this is where the budget black hole get bigger Dave

          • Motivation and morale are closely linked.

            Something of which you seem to have no awareness.

            Why go to great effort to train competent squaddies to have them piss off to civvy street?

          • I was an army officer for 34 years. I know all about morale. During my time accomodation underwent many improvements, but there will always be some (but not so very much) that is not at a totally modern level.

            I am surprised that you think the main thing we need to do in the face of Putin’s threat to democratic countries in Europe is to tweak the British Army’s accomodation blocks.

            Our soldiers leave the army for a host of reasons, of which the standard of accomodation might just be one small part. They are frustrated with a lack of real soldiering opportunities, in the main. Also concern about job cuts (lack of job security), concern over being liable for war crimes prosecution, and the usual medical and disciplinary discharges.

        • If Germany spends now 1.4% of GDP which is 52.8 billion USD and ups it to 2% vs us spending 59.2 billion USD wouldn’t they on a yearly basis be spending more than us?

          • Yes as there economy is larger, we have a nearly identical GDP per capita but they have 80 million to our 62 million.

          • hey simon – it has been widely reported in the last few weeks that Britain is the 3rd largest spender at $71.6bn pa. or £53bn (International Institute for Strategic Studies)

            for the life of me I just can’t find anywhere that corroborates this, even the latest official budget update dated this year states it is closer to £40bn than £53bn and from my experience that often means less.

            Germanys GDP is about 30% more than ours so 2% would shoot them past us by circa £30bn

          • as always clear as mud, the Wiki page references the IISS and a totally different number to the one identified in their latest report (by $12bn)

            Paul

          • yes – interesting – so if I read this correctly – foreign aid is part of the defence budget. I have no problem with this but it is a bit disingenuous as I suspect Defence has very little influence in where it goes.

            if this is defence aid then 10% of the whole budget is an awful lot given the capability gaps we are operating with.

            In all things military I have 2 rules

            1. Treat your people (and their families) well
            2. Order the kit that will protect them and defeat the enemy.

            it really is simple when you boil it down and my opinion is the MOD does neither

          • Foreign aid is not part of the defence budget – they are different things. Some want for MoD to be paid for some of their overseas activity (peace and stability) out of the aid pot – don’t think that has happened.

      • We would never spend that much as new additional money. Could see a modest increase in the late-March budget statement. Maybe we’ll order 150 rather than 148 CR3s!

    • I’m still holding out to see if our government actually does increase defence spending. I’m not sure it will happen as I just don’t think they have the strategic vision to manage geopolitically against really aggressive players like Russia and China. Our politicians are more concerned with their own party infighting that the March of nations.

      • Very insightful even in the agreement we have seen in recent days in Parliament the PM just can’t help himself making digs and then has the front to accuse others of being divisive. It hardly gives one confidence in his enlightenment or clear thinking does it.

    • It is not military preparedness that emboldened Putin but political. He thought German appeasement and reliance on Russian gas meant they would not implement implement sanctions in the way they have. NATO could wipe out Russian armour currently in Ukraine in one night it would just be a huge escalation and that is why NATO has so far stayed out of it hoping Putin will see sense and withdraw. I wouldn’t be surprised if we already where conducting limited covert strikes at night without informing the MSM hoping Putin gets the message.

    • The amount western Europe actually spends ultimately depends what happens to Putin as a result of this war. If he is removed the West will assess the new regime. A continuation Putin/ another hardliner means we will spend but I expect the UK focus will still be on 5 eyes and RN increases rather than armour , potentially air and ABM defence.
      If a soft cuddly Russian arrives in post, and Ukraine joins the EU , then Nato as they would like, then Europe will easily sleepwalk again. Boosted by a combat proven army added to the fold. Spending will go away from defence. Normal apathy resumes.
      The foreign policy goal would surely be a sensible Russian leader and then prise them from the sphere of China.
      This will probably deepen EU defence cooperation on joint projects which from a mass sense makes sense.
      Germany adds tanks, Poland is buying/modernising a lot of tanks and Finland and Sweden also join Nato

      • Hi David, no matter what happens in Europe the UK has always had a stance of being a military power without actually funding it properly

        This should be a wake up call that things can change quickly and that we need to be on our guard.

        the thing that worries me is the lack of an ABM defensive shield for what is a pretty small land mass (the uk), I am not even convince our core infrastructure is fully protected and whilst I accept that the UK being attacked is statistically low, we need to protect our shores first before even trying to project outward and I don’t believe we are.

        CASD (which includes our capabilities to hunt other subs), UK QRF and an Anti Ballistic Missile shield should be the top 3 priorities and well funded, after that we should prioritise and fund against stated HMG requirements.

        If we follow that approach – the UK is underfunded by about 25-40%

  5. From the defence analysts point of view I wonder what will come out of this conflict. Will it prove tanks have had their day (especially in urban warfare), the vulnerability of attack helicopters and the supremacy of the well trained man on the ground armed with state of the art anti-tank and anti-aircraft shoulder fired weapons – plus drones of course.

    • Good point PB, I was thinking the same. You do wonder whether the GB decision to reduce tank numbers is the right one given their vulnerability.
      Have the Russians deployed their latest tank, since I believe they have an anti-tank capability

      • The man is clearly an idiot and not been keeping up to date with the latest technology. There is a reason why the Israeli Merkava MBT has not been destroyed by ATGMs for the last 7 years, especially when fighting urban combat. That is because it uses the Trophy active protection system (APS), that kills ATGMs in-flight. Both Hamas and Hezbollah had/have a prize fund for anyone who could knock out a Merkava. Coordinated and planned ambushes were tried to kill a Merkava, but each time the tank shrugged off the attacks.

        The system has proven to be so good both the US Army and German Army are fitting it to their tanks, over locally developed system. The Challenger 3 is also supposed to be fitted with Trophy as part of its theatre entry kit.

        The Russian T72, T80 and T90s predominantly have a passive protection system. That uses IR and laser dazzlers along with smoke dischargers. None of the tanks shown destroyed have the Afghanit APS a fitted to the T14 Armata. The Afghanit is not battle proven and does not provide full hemispherical coverage like Trophy.

        • Technology will adapt to APS. Comparing Israeli use of the Merkava in urban combat and.tjinking it will adapt automatically for other scenarios might not he accurate.
          Merkava won’t he facing Brimstone or Spear like air launched missiles , fired in numbers that might overwhelm APS from top attack.
          The tanks aren’t taking heavy 6 inch artillery or MLRS rounds nearby that may blind or damage optics, nor facing complex countermeasures themselves either in “smoke” or some form of spoofing to appear like a inside launch.
          Tanks are needed, but they are definitely targets.

          • I wonder how well any of this systems work after a few weeks or months in field covered in mud and peppered with shrapnel.

          • Of course tanks are targets. The point is that with APS, they are no longer that easy to knock out by ATGM. So the offense/defence seesaw is more balanced.

            Trophy has been successfully tested against high diving and top attack missiles such as Hellfire. Brimstone and Spear-3 will be no different. As they will also be vulnerable to the tungsten effectors either destroying the missile or its sensors.

            It will take a significant number of missiles/RPGs to overwhelm Trophy. The original system only had one reload per turreted launcher. The newer system has more, but they aren’t publishing how many (obviously).

            Trophy uses a combination of passive laser, IR and active AESA radar threat detection. It then employs multi-tiered countermeasures, including smoke discharges optical dazzlers as well as the tungsten effectors. It will even align the tank’s turret towards the shooters direction. The shooter’s location can be networked to others. How these sensors stand up to flying shrapnel and direct hits is debatable.

            From my Israeli contact, he said they haven’t had any issues when on operations. So I have to take his word for it.

        • What about their fuel trucks? Do this have such amazing self defence systems? Logistics is what is killing MBT not direct protection. With drones and ATGM covering battlefield and long range precision artillery and ballistic missiles anything with a long logistics tail is vulnerable.

          • From experience, a tank is very vulnerable to infantry closing in and firing shoulder launched missiles/RPGs at the sides or rear of the tank.

            To keep weight low, Russian tanks use explosive reactive armour (ERA). This means their passive armour is a lot thinner compared to a western tanks. But perhaps more crucially your supporting infantry can’t use the ERA covered tank for cover. The top plate of the ERA sandwich disintegrates and is flung out to at least 50m along with a deadly blast wave. If you are standing within 50m you will get seriously hurt or worse killed. In all the imagery shown where Russian armour is being attacked, they don’t have any supporting infantry to protect the flanks or the rear.

            I agree their logistics appears to be highly shambolic. Logistics is always an Army’s weak point. It needs coordinated planning along with comprehensive force protection. Where main supply routes are kept clear and the flanks are protected. But also the routes are protected from air surveillance and attack. It seems they are either negligent in providing force protection or it is highly inadequate.

            Israel has Trophy Lite. This has been designed for lightly armoured vehicles. I don’t believe it has been mounted to a truck. But the only thing stopping it would be cost.

        • Why is he an idiot? Of course tanks are targets. Does the Merkava have 360 degrees cover – I doubt it – or the ability to take out multiple incoming missiles.

          • Yes, Trophy has full hemispherical coverage. It has taken out four ATGMs fired at it simultaneously, where they were timed to arrive at nearly the same time.

        • Hamas and Hezbollah don’t have the expertise or funds to get around APS systems.

          But richer countries absolutely could.

          And really, even for the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah, a saturation attack will get past any APS, provided the APS can even last in the field for extended lengths of time.

          Not to mention the vulnerability of supply vehicles.

          • Both Hamas and Hezbollah are funded through Iran. They have direct access to the latest Russian, Chinese and Iranian anti-tank weapons. Such as Kornet, RPG29/30/32 and Chinese HJ12 (Javelin copy). These have all been used against Trophy equipped Merkava MBTs.

            They have conducted coordinated ambushes where multiply systems were fired at a tank. So far, Trophy has protected the tank. The largest simultaneous attack so far was by four ATGMs against a lone Merkava 4 on picket duty at a checkpoint.

            APS is not the golden armour that protects against anything and everything. It rebalances the offense/defence seesaw. Yes it can be overwhelmed, as the tank only has so many reloads. But, the reloads are significantly cheaper (precut square of tungsten on a backing of plastic explosive) than a modern ATGM.

            With Logistics, it will depend on how seriously you plan and coordinate you efforts to protect the supply route. Russia it seems has a lot to relearn!

    • With weapons like javelin and brimstone you have to ask how useful heavy armour is. It has a place for sure but it’s increasingly niche which is why numbers were reduced.

  6. They need to be removed asap to cause a real headache for the Russian Airforce.

    “Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) Beriev A-50 ‘Mainstay’ airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft have been flying daily missions from an airbase in Belarus to coordinate Moscow’s air offensive against Ukraine.

    Images of two A-50 aircraft operating from Baranavichy airbase, south-west of Minsk, have been repeatedly posted online by anti-Belarus government activists since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Video clips show the aircraft taking off from the airbase and heading south towards Ukraine.”

    https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defence/latest/ukraine-conflict-belarus-based-a-50-aewc-aircraft-lead-russian-air-offensive-on-ukraine

          • Presumably over Belarus to keep them out of MANPAD range?

            Mind you if Belarus attacks Ukraine then they become fair game to a stand off Air to Air Missile maybe from one of the EU supplied MiGs?

            Russian situational awareness doesn’t seem to be very good ATM anyway.

            Does anyone know if GLONASS is fully operational in that area? If it was ‘having problems’ it might explain why so many Russian troops were a bit lost?

          • Being high value assets probably defended by fighters and an AEW asset that will likely see the Migs coming I’d have thought going a bit more covert stood a better chance. That is overland with a small team with MANPAD to hit on take off or landing.

          • Maybe.

            That said NATO would know all that and feed it to the Ukrainians.

            Will a long range missile that might not be such a problem?

            Although I agree the SF option with a few Stingers is also a possibility.

            I have a real feeling that the reason the Russians are so, so lost is that GLONASS is being messed with.

          • I had no idea what you meant by GLONASS. I’ve educated myself now.
            Wonderful, our Cyber in action.

          • I don’t know that for fact.

            I’d be surprised if a few things Russian haven’t crashed and failed to reboot!

            Or a giving some dodgy data…..

          • Sorry I am being stupid.

            This is, of course, why Google maps is down in Ukraine….

            Sorry to be so so soooooo slow to make the connection!

            I’ll bet Apple maps don’t work either and a few other flavours of instant routing……the source data will be ‘offline for maitenance’

            God my brain needs a reboot that it took me all day to figure that out…..

          • The hacker group known as Anonymous, has sent an ultimatum to the Krelin about stopping the fighting and pulling their troops out of Ukraine. They began targeting some infrastructure IT on the first day and they have said they will shut down the power grid across the country. So the GLONASS system could also be on their list.

          • Maybe.

            I’d say this was more state level switch off.

            Combined with the Google Maps switch off…..

            I don’t think a lot of Vlad The Mad’s buttons are connected to much ATM.

          • Anonymous are, well anonymous.

            We don’t know who they are, they can change at any time, and they could or couldn’t be pretty much anyone.

            However, all we really have to go on from ‘Anonymous’ is them using DDoS attacks. These aren’t sophisticated at all, and if you are prepared to spend the money, quite easy to counter. It’s even hacking.

            So we don’t know if they can go after infrastructure. ‘Anonymous’ could include government agencies, in which case they could do some actual hacking, but would they really want to play that hand? Once the Russians are aware of the vulnerabilities used, they’ll be attempting to patch them as soon as possible.

          • Perhaps NATO should take one of those Russian AEW aircraft out with a big SAM. When Russia goes bonkers – NATO can reply ‘ oh sorry – we thought it was an airliner’…….

          • GMD has posted here on UKDEF that the EU have organised Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria to donate 56 MIG 29s and 14 SU25s. 👍

          • I don’t have an original source so Bulgaria and the EU will have to sort themselves out I guess. On any case very likely more planes than pilots.

      • It’s called a STINGER, and they have to take off.

        No different to the Hind in Afghan, you get as close as possible to the airfield.

    • Seen a video on Twitter of Mainstay taking off from Baranavichi.

      Ukrainian SF could do it by infiltrating on the ground? Does not look far from NW Ukraine.

      • Or a drone strike whilst the aircraft are on the ground. Think their drones are heavily in demand though so would have to pick their target priorities carefully.

        Russian air defences seem to have a hard time tracking them.

      • And no doubt trained in part by western SF so more than doable.
        Pukara in the Falklands springs to mind.

      • An alternative option with eyes on the ground.

        “Ukraine reportedly attacked a Russian airbase on 25 February, marking the first time that Kyiv conducted an offensive military action outside of its national borders since Russia launched its renewed invasion of the country on 24 February.

        The stated attack, the supposed aftermath of which was widely circulated on social media along with images of damaged and burning facilities and aircraft, saw Millerovo Air Base (AB) in Russia’s Rostov region seemingly struck with multiple ballistic missiles fired from Ukraine.”

        https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defence/latest/ukraine-conflict-ukraine-reportedly-strikes-russian-airbase

        And a few of these wouldn’t go amiss either.

        “Leonardo Australia will provide the Australian Defence Force (ADF) with the Type 163 Laser Target Designator (LTD) under Australia’s LAND 17 Phase 2 Digital Terminal Control System – Capability Assurance Program.”

        https://www.janes.com/defence-news/terror-insurgent-group/latest/australia-to-acquire-additional-laser-target-designators-from-leonardo

      • I’m unable to find the original post, but just to confirm what I said earlier in relation to UK F-35B/Typhoon. I’m sure you have read my past comments on up to 50 hrs maintenance per flight hour for the F-35?

        FEBRUARY 28, 2022

        Delivery of many critical Royal Navy capabilities still years away

        “Carrier strike capability is on track to achieve FOC by December 2023. By the end of 2022, there will be sufficient UK F-35s and trained aircrew to support routine carrier deployments of up to 12 jets.

        Maintenance and training demands mean this is cannot sustain back-to-back deployments and must be carefully paced.

        The Lightning Force is still regenerating after CSG21 and it will be instructive to see how many jets can be mustered for operations in response to events in Ukraine.

        FOC for F-35 is scheduled for 2025, at which point two squadrons of up to 24 jets will be available for planned carrier embarkations.

        Integration of the Meteor BVR air-air missile with F-35 is not now anticipated to be completed until 2027 and there is a possibility that integration pressures in the programme may incur further delays because of challenges in the wider F-35 programme.

        The F-35 can already carry up to 6 very effective AIM-120 AMRAAM but Meteor offers considerably superior range and performance.”

        https://www.navylookout.com/delivery-of-many-critical-royal-navy-capabilities-still-years-away/

      • Check the flight data reports …NATO is flying E3s along/very close to the Polish border and the same over the black sea areas in Romanian airspace.
        The E3 radar can obviously reach way way way into Ukraine and Belarus airspace.

        So say for instance the E£ controller sees an aircraft on his display
        ” Unknown Aircraft flying at 20000ft not sqwaking on IFF on a bearing of 240 degs speed 640 this is NATO Air controller Please state your intentions.”

        The Air Controller Repeats this as required for any changes in course, height or speed.

        Of course being on Guard anyone with a radio tuned to Guard frequencies can listen in and if they so choose could use the information …. NATO is not assisting anyone they are just protecting there airspace from interlopers…

    • Stingers will be effective against the helos. I think the SU-25s are LGB capable. I don’t know whether they would be typically launched beyond Stinger range; 10,000 ft I think. So probably we need to get the Mig 29s promised the EU to the Ukraine airforce. They have good AA missiles and can take out the A-50s and the SU-25s. AEW co-ordination and endurance would be is a problem for the Ukrainians. i don’t think CAP is feasible.Its a big country. I don’t know where Ukraine would base the Migs. What they really need is something like Land Ceptor or SLAMRAAAM but they are not trained to use them. The south of Kyiv could be where the head to head armour face off happens?

      • Paul P wrote:

         I don’t know where Ukraine would base the Migs. 

        The Mig 29 was designed to be able to operate from rough airfields and then theres always motorways using Bridges as hangers. The air inlets have a flap which can be lowered in such situations in which to stop the injestion of FOD, and air is sucked in from vents situated on the top of the aircraft untll the aircraft is airborne:

        • Interesting and hopeful. So in theory if fuel and armaments could be got to a safe stretch of motorway Ukrainian forces could construct a makeshift airfield. Reminiscent of Harrier cold war concept.

          • I think if tempest ever is a thing it should have these capabilities as well. I presume F35B should be generally OK with short take off assuming FOD is cleared, and we are not too fussed on cooking the motorway. Or straight up, but limited load.

          • Hi, to be honest I’ve lost track of what Tempest is going to be. Sometimes I understand it will be a 6th generation F-36, sometimes its a drone, sometimes its a family of swans – a manned mother ship and a gaggle of baby drones: all possibly carrier launched. I’ve got brain ache.

          • It’s not nailed down yet, but it’s not going to be carrier aircraft.

            It’s to replace air superiority and strike aircraft. The Japanese are mainly after an air superiority fighter and the US are not going to share their crown jewel.

            The UK have condensed their fighters down to air superiority/strike with Typhoon, and then ‘specialised’ with the F-35B. Given our resources, this is probably the best idea.

            Making the Tempest carrier capable would complicate and possibly hinder the design. There’s no point in it, and none of the current partners are after carrier aircraft (the Japanese are almost certainly going to go ahead with an F-35B purchase).

          • A problem with dispersal is that we’d run out of alternatives before the Russians ran out of missiles to hit them with.

          • Yeah. I was going to come back and delete it but I think i’ll keep it here. The last 5 days have proved it wrong.

          • Singapore is buying B version for same reason. Can use many sections of motorway if you don’t mind melted tarmac.

          • It’s why the F35B has two openings on the top. One is for the lift-fan, the other is a redirected air intake for the engine to reduce chances of FOD.

          • It looks like the total MIG 29s that will be received from Slovakia, Poland and Bulgaria will be 56. Plus 14 SU 25 from Bulgaria as well. solid numbers if they have the pilots.

      • Hi Paul, It’s believed that Russian PGMs are mostly carried by SU-34s or legacy SU-24s.

        Its other attack-aircraft, SU-25s and SU-30s, are reportedly armed mainly with dumb bombs or rockets.

        But in this opening phase, defence analysts like Justin Bronk are stating that the Russian Air-Force (VKS) has largely not been deployed.

        Russia seems to be relying on SAMs for air-defence, and cruise/ballistic missiles for strike.

        • Yes, Alan, that’s consistent with my research. The main conclusion was that the Ukrainian airforce probably does not have capability or training to deliver PGMs but they can contest airspace. Hence the Russian tactics.

          • Hi Paul, Tactically, it certainly appears a very distinctive air-war. In contrast to recent conflicts, fast-jet operations are being conducted at ultra low-level.

          • Indeed. I believe Ukraine flies early export models of the MIG 29 and SU 25 which did not have decent defensive aids. They are vulnerable to the Russian mobile AA batteries. Low level attack with rocket pods will likely be the way to go. I wonder if the Turkish drones can find and take out the AA? If so the long Russian convoys would be in trouble. Apparently the EU have found 56 MIG29s to donate to Ukraine plus some SU25s.

  7. I’m sure the Sentinels we have now just lost would have given our side a better picture of what is happening there. Yet another oversight by those chair bound idiots of MOD. Should have been maintained as it would have been a real boost to up to date intell. And Now AEW either. God help us all.

    • I think the Ukrainians are getting plenty of intel from plenty of places.

      Not least the supportive population posting pictures and things on SM using their phones!

      I would have a bit of a noodle as to why the Ukrainians are doing so well

      a) they know exactly what is going on and who is going where; and
      b) the Russians don’t know where they are going (why?); and
      c) they appear to have a very good idea of where to ambush (a) effectively with the weapons that they have to hand (why?)

      Is this all coincidence?

      Or are they getting a good intel picture form somewhere?

      And are some Russian systems being buggered up?

      • I had assumed that NATO live satellite data is being feed to the Ukrainian forces. So they know exactly where the Russians are at any time. It gives you the choice of when and where to attack. Hit and run tactics.

        Plus it sounds like the Russians logistics are breaking down. No food, water and fuel, then no fighting. It’s an old lesson.

        • And in the north, where the invasion has stalled the most (and where the Russians hoped to make the fastest advance…), the Russian soldiers were just on exercise for weeks. They’ll be exhausted and want to go home.

          There are reports of them stealing, drinking, selling diesel, etc. before they even invaded.

  8. I think it is becoming very clear that this can only go 1 of 2 ways.

    1. Russia flattens the cities and occupies Ukraine. 100s of thousands of dead including Russian soldiers. Leading to ongoing insurgency in Ukraine and massive stand off between NATO and Russia.
    2. Russian soldiers go home en masse. Regime change in the Kremlin and popular revolution in Russia.

    Putin is risking the destruction of human civilisation to stay in power.

  9. We need to get these weapons to the forces defending Kyiv quickly; before the Russian forces encircle the city. Siege and attrition.
    Russian interest rates are up to 20%. Inflation is 60%. We need angry Russians to oust Putin.

  10. The Ukrainians have set up the international Legion and just like the French and Spanish legions it will be legal to join, It was mention on Sky tv (so must be true) that they have had over 5000 volunteers already from all over the world.
    I believe that if you are interested in joining then you have to apply to the Ukraine embassy in London.
    Just wonder how many volunteers there will be from the UK ?

    • There won’t be enough volunteers to make a difference -its too late unfortunately.
      It smacks of desperation – but in all honesty who can blame ’em.

      If Putins heavy artillery is coming into play I can see no way out for the Ukrainians other than accepting a ceasefire, and ceding power.

      There will be no cavalry coming over the horizon, they know it and we know it.

      TheIr PM won’t want to be responsible for 10 of 1000’s of Civilian deaths will he – theres no justification for it.
      Its not his position to force that on them – I know I wouldnt want to make that call.

      If he and his government leave & set up outside of Ukraine it wil only be a matter of time before he meets with an accident- sadly we all know it.

      We can only hope sanctions against Russia & Belarus go on for years- but I won’t be holding my breath.

      I hope Putin thinks it’s been worth it .

      • “TheIr PM won’t want to be responsible for 10 of 1000’s of Civilian deaths will he – theres no justification for it.
        Its not his position to force that on them – I know I wouldnt want to make that call.”

        Didn’t Churchill make exactly that call in 1940?

        So far, Zelensky has displayed the same sort of courage and defiance one would want to see in the man leading the nation through it’s (most recent) ‘darkest hour.

        If I were a Ukrainian bloke over there, I think I would follow him.

        I’ve got a great deal of respect and admiration for him from over here.

        • No Churchill didn’t-The Germans weren’t encircling London at the time were they the two are not comparable.
          I don’t doubt their defiance or their passion and tenacity I am just being pragmatic.
          If they bring in their heavy armour I hope those who are seemingly gloating will take time to reflect on the deaths.
          As I say its a big call for him to make – at the end of the day it isn’t our population is it.
          BTW Dresden was a PR triumph for Gobbels ,over exagerated the deaths – the Germans did far worse.

          • But the Germans weren’t in the UK circling London with heavy artitlery were they & we had the RAF & the Channel-luckily enough.
            As I said not comparable.

          • 1940 defiance is largely a myth the British were always very confident they could defend their land and airspace long enough for the embargo to cripple Germany

        • Yes I always though that was Putins aim. He can then say he was the saviour of the Russian speakers in Ukraine – He has to take something back home with the body bags doesnt he .
          I only hope sanctions continue if thats how it ends up – and we don’t allow his land grabbing & killing to go unpunished like we did with The Crimea.

          • Putin genuinely believes he is the saviour of the Russian people. That sincerity is the tragedy: he is the biblical anti-christ.

      • Well Grizzler, if Putin really does put the city in the street (a WW2 euphemism for blowing the city apart) then everyone will know exactly all they need to know about Putin. Doing a Dresden on Khiv won’t buy Russia any friends.

        • Kniv is the origin story for Russia to destroy it would be like destroying their own history. Many Russians would be appalled at the prospect though it might still happen if Putin gets really desperate. As for the International Brigade it’s not desperation is a very clever historical point by Zelensky to keep up the pressure. He’s playing blinder in the or game whatever happens ultimately and as such he lives on dead or alive that will only make Russias hold on the Country more difficult.

          • Agree about Zelensky. He seems to be a man who has found his moment. Also I think international brigades to fight fascism is a good idea. However I agree with Wallace, don’t go if you have no military experience or language skills, you’ll just get in the way and maybe get yourself killed. Better still join the UK armed forces, get paid, trained and defend your own country.

      • “If Putins heavy artillery is coming into play I can see no way out for the Ukrainians other than accepting a ceasefire, and ceding power.”

        You mean more of the effective weapons that the Ukrainians have used so well already?

        Or do you mean the donation of a good number of jets and technical help that would enable the Ukrainians to take out the Russian Heavies?

        If Putin does use his heavy kit on civvy populations then some very heavy kit will be gifted the the Ukrainians to test out on Mad Vlad’s kit. Laser guided heavy kit. A 500kg LGB will take out any of Mad Vlad’s latest shiny toys.

        At that point I think you will find all of the Thermobaric weapons transports will ‘regrettably break down’ and the crews will surrender rather than being part of a turkey shoot with a war crimes trial attached. There is a reason every sighting of that stuff is being posted.

        In a sense this is the best test bed of Russian vs Wester weapons there has been since Op Granby. The Russian stuff isn’t looking any better now than then.

        “There will be no cavalry coming over the horizon, they know it and we know it.”

        I don’t think they need cavalry their forces are determined and increasingly well equipped. Russia has a terrible rate of attrition: it is a question of how long they can grit their teeth for. Public sentiment won’t stand for this for long. The oligarchs are speaking out now. The writing is on the wall. They do not feel they are fighting the Nazi’s here so there isn’t the need to hunker down and suffer.

        • You know exactly what I meant regards Cavalry – people are hiding behind the fact they aren’t in NATO when there are other mechanisms that can be used rather than NATO if the desire was there- it isn’t.
          Again I’m not saying it should be – just highlighting that it isnt and its not our troops and civilians getting killed.
          I find some of the rhetoric on here saddening – its almost as if its a War video game for some – with real lives.
          I hope you are right and the Russian forces decide enough is enough -and Putin ends up on the end of a rope but thats another gamble isn’t it and it could go horribly wrong.

          • I agree regarding the video game element. The lives lost are real and look to be over 5k already.

            I actually felt a bit sick reading Sir Humphrey’s latest post on The Thin Pinstriped Line.

          • Yes I think the realisation that the best we can hope for is a new Cold War is pretty chilling, the options beyond that beings a General war of powers is truly horrific, but humanity is good at horrific and the bottom line which I have Learnt of years is most people ability to ignore the suffering of others is very high ( I have seen many people step over suffering like it was not there).

          • It was unusually full on for the thin pinstriped line. He normally does very balanced pieces. This has clearly effected him deeply.

          • Perhaps the western aid package should include a few Batteries of GMLRS. From concealed sites within Kyiv they could take out those Russian columns advancing upon them. It’s not a video game and before long too many Russian mothers will be getting rather sad letters.

          • The even sadder thing is that the Russians, in previous wars, claimed the dead were deserters.

            In this case there is so much contemporaneous video that line cannot be sustained.

          • Yes Ukraine not being in NATO is an excuse, the truth is the west is simply not willing/ready to go to war with another nuclear power. It’s an interesting paradox, Mutual assured destruction only works if both sides have a stable understanding of the other. Putin has created such instability that the west is effectively lost as it cannot know were any red line is. Which means the west has been forced into a defensive mindset.

            We have only ever seen stable nuclear powers interact, even as enemies. And the geopolitical moves were very carful and even then came close to missteps.

            What Putin is doing is functionally chaos with MAD in the mix and it’s terrifying to be honest.

            As supportive mentioned one way would be for the Russia people to remove Putin. I honestly don’t think that is very likely to be honest, modern authoritarian states that have a secure grounding of popularist support are pretty stable and Russia especially is a nation that tends to to rebel. The U.K. has a long history of 800 years of being an antsy population, Many other nations simply don’t see it that way and who really wants to risk crossing a bloody minded dictator like Putin ( they will mumble a few will protect but that’s it) just look at his head of external intelligence, they guy looked like he was shitting himself when Putin cross examined him.

            I think the likely outcome is that Ukraine will have to sue for peace, it will be forced to become a puppet state. Russia will then look for its next victim either north or south and China will Bank the weakness into its own plans.

            Best we can hope for now is a Cold War in which the west can overcome its ideological enemies in the same way it did to the USSR.

            As for the rhetoric on the site, I would hope everyone understands the cost in lives and what that means in grieving families ( most deaths affect a lot of people). But the sad reality is that’s the world and we all die one way or another ( and it’s almost never pleasant to be honest) and death is everywhere and on an incomprehensible level. So I greave for what is happening but it’s minuscule in comparison to the suffering that happens in any one hour of any one day on this planet of ours.

            Most of that untold suffering is really Just because the world can’t be bothered to get it together to do some of the most basic things and so we all choose to accept death on an unimaginable scale.

            As an easy example because we will not ( as a species) provide everyone with clean water ( which we could easily do as a species) 500,000+ children under five every year die of diarrhoea.( which is a horrible way for a child to die) ….im 50 years old so in my half a century of happy western existence 25 million young children have died of the most preventable and treatable condition in the world. ( costs a few quid to treat). What is truly tragic is how many people actual care and make a difference. I do a little bit, but I know if I sold everything I have and given most of the Salary So me my family and my children lived on a western version of the bread line I could probably have saved 10,000s of children’s lives with the resources available to me and my family across my life……that will be the same with most of the posters on this site….and I feel shit about that….but I say to myself I’m a caring person I give a lot to charity, I give my time up for charities and I’m a children’s nurse ( adult as well)…but I know my nice life and my children’s nice life could have saved 10,000 of lives and I more than most know what Dying actually looks like.

          • Yes the MAD issue is something I have mentioned on another thread, it seems to have completley thrown the populus into a frenzy – which was of course his intention.
            Saw a guy from Russian Economic centre interviewed on CH4 last night – he bascially said he saw it as Putin only reminding the west of the Nuclear positions – suffice to say it got a bit tasty.
            As for the rest yep I give to a charity thats close to my heart too – have done a long time, as I’m sure many of those on here will (before I get accused of virtue signalling).
            You however seem to do more than many do ,me included – Kudos for that (and thats sincere btw).

      • I think you are right in some ways but I do believe that Mr Putin has underestimated the opposition and the resolution in the Ukraine, I dear say as soon as Starlin’s organs start to play then we will see the civilian death rate go up quite considerably but it looks as though they are in for the long haul. I would go so far as to say this might be Mr Putin’s last few weeks in the spot light as I believe it will be one of his own that give him the good news as he is starting to look more like a rabid dog rather than the leader of a Nuclear nation.

        • The scary thing is he is both at the moment.
          I can’t believe he is making the threats he is . I know he annexed The Crimea in 2014 but what the hell has caused this return to the 1950’s – sheer madness.
          It has only happened since he went to that Chinese summt …anyone remember the original Manchurian Candidate…

  11. Few observations / guesses.

    Russian air force is clearly going to start hitting Ukraine’s airbases much more heavily, and probably with large numbers of stand off cruise missiles. Hopefully Ukraine has the ability to disperse any newly delivered jet fighters and their pilots effectively including being able to operate them from isolated roads/old disused airstrips etc. Fuel/weapons etc can be delivered by road to where ever needed.

    That all the Russian hardware including most of its tracked vehicles seem to be trundling very slowly along roads might suggest that, following the winter snow, the ground is now thawing and becoming too soft to support the weight of tanks. Aside from some isolated and effective drone strikes, Ukraine presently lacks the numbers of drones/aircraft and rapidly maneuverable artillery necessary to really take advantage of this as that 3-mile convoy has been sitting on that road North of Kiev for several days.

    Overall would cold weather / warmer weather benefit Ukrainians or Russians most? I imagine what would be useful for Ukraine right now would be a few days of very heavy rain to turn the land into a quagmire and limit usefulness of aircraft.

    Russian units content to sit outside cities and bombard, including indiscriminately, to avoid taking casualties in close quarter fighting in urban areas. How long can they keep this up with the effects of supplies and sanctions?

    Russian army is considerably less capable than it appeared to be prior to invasion.

    • “Russian air force is clearly going to start hitting Ukraine’s airbases much more heavily, and probably with large numbers of stand off cruise missiles.”

      Maybe: have you considered why so few have been used after the opening onslaught?

      “Hopefully Ukraine has the ability to disperse any newly delivered jet fighters and their pilots effectively including being able to operate them from isolated roads/old disused airstrips etc. Fuel/weapons etc can be delivered by road to where ever needed.”

      Maybe – there will have been Cold War dispersal sites.

      Maybe something else I am not going to post on here.

      “That all the Russian hardware including most of its tracked vehicles seem to be trundling very slowly along roads might suggest that, following the winter snow, the ground is now thawing and becoming too soft to support the weight of tanks.”

      Or maybe the main routes are blocked with blown bridges so the convoys are being funnelled down roads good for ambush tactics?

      “Aside from some isolated and effective drone strikes, Ukraine presently lacks the numbers of drones/aircraft and rapidly maneuverable artillery necessary to really take advantage of this as that 3-mile convoy has been sitting on that road North of Kiev for several days.”

      I wonder why it has sat there: could it be out of fuel?

      “Overall would cold weather / warmer weather benefit Ukrainians or Russians most? I imagine what would be useful for Ukraine right now would be a few days of very heavy rain to turn the land into a quagmire and limit usefulness of aircraft.”

      Heavy rain would suit the Ukrainians as they are fighting a guerrilla war using 4×4’s and shoulder launcher weapons in well planned fire-move-evade-fire-move-evade.

      I don’t see how modern aircraft with GPS or laser targeting will be put off by a bit of rain?

      “Russian units content to sit outside cities and bombard, including indiscriminately, to avoid taking casualties in close quarter fighting in urban areas. How long can they keep this up with the effects of supplies and sanctions?”

      By using the heavy stuff to lob projectiles and worse into cities they will make sure the Ukrainians have the heavy stuff to stop them.

      “Russian army is considerably less capable than it appeared to be prior to invasion.”

      Totally agree with that.

      But why: might be the question?

    • I was in a 19 mile column once…..nose to tail on the M6. One man’s armoured column is another man’s traffic jam…..sitting ducks.

      • I think the strategy that Ukrainians are using is to hit the supply lines.

        No point wasting weapons on tanks and APCs for the most part. They’re next to useless if they have no fuel. And the soldiers will be too if they run out of food and water; with locals not exactly being prepared to share, if they are even around anymore.

    • Does Russia have large numbers of stand off cruise missiles? Financially, Russia probably has a lot less stuff than they like to pretend. Personally, I think the supply issues they are having are because their military has enough stuff to look good, not enough to be good. It will be very instructive to see what ration of smart/dumb munitions they use over the next few days and how much ammo/diesel, etc, they prove to have.

  12. By road across the border with Poland I think. Heard reference to military vehicles seen at same crossing point as refugees.

  13. 2 trillion debt it’s difficult, but would the interest on another 100 billion really break the camels back. Especially if most spent on equipment/recruitment in the UK ? Surely it’s the confidence in the borrower that decides if it can be affordable. A safe and secure UK must give the lender confidence their money is safe.Just printing money is not really an option given inflation at the moment. I think the government has no alternative, hopefully it’s not too late.

    • Would be good if we had the manufacturing base so that most uplift was spent in uk rather than off to rheunmetal et al. That way more of the debt would be recycled into the good of the economy and hopefully we could make more kit here to sell abroad, in creasing gdp and making more available to spend on defence

  14. Hats off to Boris for being the first leader with the courage to send weapons to the Ukrainians and for keeping them flowing to the defenders. I hope the world has learned that sending them only non lethal aid like Obama/Biden did years ago only encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine. That and Obama and the rest of the world doing nothing the first time Russia invaded Ukraine.

  15. What is the status of the Ukrainian Air Force. Has it been in action, is it still a viable force or has it been neutralised on the ground?

    • Hi Albion, Despite its air-bases and fixed radar-sites being struck by Russian missiles, reports indicate the Ukrainian Air Force is still operational with SU-24, SU-25, SU-27 and MiG-29 fast-jets all seen at low-level over the battlefield.
      Indeed, during this initial phase, the Russian Air-Force does not seem to have been greatly deployed – perhaps due to concerns over potential friendly fire incidents. Meantime, the Russians seem to be relying on Surface-to-Air (SAM) missiles for air-defence, and cruise/ballistic missiles for strike.

      • The Russians invest in SAMs because their air force is crap and they know it. If the EU are serious about supplying the Ukrainians with fighter aircraft, if, then even a few dozen 4th Gen aircraft (Typhoon T1? Mirage, Tornado, F16s) will cause chaos. Putin would need to save his more advanced / skilled aircraft for Russian air space defence meaning that the Ukrainians would be free to shoot up those columns.

        • The most likely aircraft Ukraine will be getting are Mig-29s and Su-25s. There are at least four NATO members who operate them. Poland and to a lesser degree Slovakia have just spent a large sum getting theirs updated with new avionics to make them more compatible with other NATO aircraft, with new radios, crypto, IFF etc. it is also rumored that Poland sent across a large stock of air to air missiles such as AA10s, AA11s etc.

          The trouble giving them Typhoon, Mirage etc, is that none of the pilots are trained on them. But just as importantly none of the ground crew. It would take too long to train them so that they were competent enough to work on their own!

        • Sending them completely different airframes at this point is not a good idea, especially if there are Migs and Sus to spare.

          That money and those airframes would be better spent and used replacing the Migs and Sus that European countries are going to supply.

      • Ukraine is a big country and had a lot of time to prepare and scatter it’s jets. Russian aircraft while impressive at air shows do not have the kind of stand off land attack accuracy that NATO has. The further west they fly the lower the chances of flying home as well.

      • Supposedly Russian Central command ordered a big push to take place today by strategic bombers to take out the Ukranian airforce in the west and establish air superiority to intercept supply convoys by Europe, however all they have done today is a big wave of cruise missiles on them, not attempted to attack directly.

      • As I said above: we have a lot of theories why they’re not throwing everything at Ukraine, perhaps it’s because everything is a lot less than we think it is. When you have air superiority, friendly fire isn’t an issue.

        • Hi Rob

          But at the moment, Russia doesn’t have air-superiority ……. the jets that we see on Twitter clips are mostly Ukrainian.

          What Russia probably does have, though, is an integrated air-defence network massed over the battlefield, with an array of ground-based SAMs (that’s been its doctrine since the early Seventies). Lacking the resources to destroy SAM sites, Ukrainian pilots are trying to evade detection/destruction by flying under the radar (pre-Gulf War 1991 tactics). We’re not directly hearing about Ukrainian aircraft losses – but we’re certainly seeing them on TV/Twitter clips. For instance a huge fireball over Kiev on the first night was reportedly a Ukrainian SU-27 fighter – shot-down by a BUK-2.

          It’s reported that poor co-ordination between Russian forces is sometimes resulting in units leaving the protection of the SAM-belt – giving Ukrainian pilots a better chance to strike and evade.

          In addition, Russia is believed to have very limited stocks of PGMs. In Syria, the Russian air-force (VKS) largely used dumb bombs/rockets – and carpet bombing. Trying to limit civilian casualties in Ukraine (unlike in Syria) during this initial phase may be one of the reasons for the absence of the VKS.

          The Russian air-force is not greatly engaged at the moment, air-superiority hasn’t been achieved – but SAMs are somewhat restricting the operations of the Ukrainian air-force. One fears that as Putin’s impatience/fury is directed against Ukrainian cities we may yet see the brutal intervention of significant numbers of Russian aircraft – engaged in the indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas.

  16. I wonder what they have sent. I find it odd that the gov was happy to state what was being sent previously and the EU etc are still happily saying what they are sending, and yet the UK gov suddenly goes quiet.

  17. There is a group (at least 20) of ex-SF joining the fight against Russia. They’ve signed up through the Embassy in London. I’ve also heard that there are also two other groups of ex-servicemen going, one are ex-paras and the other ex-leg infantry. It seems that Ukrainians in the French Foreign Legion are being officially allowed to return home, including their kit.

    The other bit if information I can share is that there are UK military specialists in Poland training Ukrainian troops. In the use of Javelin, NLAW, Stinger and IEDs.

  18. Sad but telling piece on BBC World Service tonight. It was a Ukrainian journalist reading the text messages from the phone of a young Russian soldier to his mum.
    He was dismayed that they had been told they would be welcomed, but instead he said Ukrainian civilians were throwing themselves in front of their vehicles to stop them, and they were calling them ‘fascists’.
    He was killed shortly after the last text was sent.

  20. Russia has bombed a children’s hospital.

    Time for a no fly zone and suppression of artillery and face down Putin.

    Does this have to be a NATO vs Russia scenario or can it be individual States providing protection?

    A madman must be faced down and the RAF are upto it.

    Just takes a real man to stand against a bully.

    • Problem with no fly zone is that western aircraft would have to engage Russian aircraft to enforce it. Basically it’s the exact same thing as sending ground forces. NATO has been clear that it will not engage directly vs Russia, because that will likely end up in a mushroom cloud.

      • Hi Lordtemplar, As well as shooting down Russian aircraft – for self-protection, NATO aircraft would also have to destroy Russian SAM sites.

      • Russian pilots flew against the UN in Korea & probably against the Americans in Vietnam. Putin has used chemical weapons to kill dissidents in the UK & UK citizens as collateral. He sent his “little green men” into Ukraine, illegally annexed Crimea, now gone full invasion & threatened using nukes, yet we can’t dare do more than send Ukraine weapons, impose sanctions(which may “force” Russia’s hand against us anyway) & hand wring from the wings? 90% of Ukrainians wanted independance from Russia.

        Remind me who has escalated this? Pity all the Russian tropps dead, maimed & truamatised through this & the hardship bought upon the long suffering Russian people.
        We seem to be broadcasting to the world just how much licence we give our enemies.

    • Perhaps unmarked (or Ukrainian marked) armed drones are the answer, take off and fly from NATO nations at very low height to avoid radar. Then pop-up in Ukraine to attack Russian logistics columns. Unless the Russians can trace where the control signals are coming from, there’s plausible deniability.

  21. So are the UK now backtracking on the comments made by Liz Truss, regarding people of the UK ‘volunteering’ to fight for Ukraine?

    If it’s good enough for the Russians to supposedly bankroll ex military, and Mercenary ‘units’, it’s good enough for the west.

    Whilst I appreciate that a lack of military training may cause problems, it does not take much to fire a weapon. The other point here is that volunteers generally have much more ‘enthusiasm’ for fighting, which goes hand in hand with determination.

    Right… where’s me old 58 webbing kit and SLR…

  22. Off topic. Do we know what missiles damaged those cargo ships in the Black Sea? I was under the impression that Russian anti ship were carrier killers, it seems not so much.

  23. They’ll need them with that massive convoy on its way to Kiev, hope they use them smartly too, attack front, rear, middle at choke points…

  25. Here’s a thought out of the Russian playbook:

    Allow RAF (and other nations pilots) to fly their aircraft into Ukraine and deal with armoured columns currently heading to Kiev as ‘private citizens’.

    Love to see some Brimstones rain down, perhaps deal with some SU-34s in ‘self-defence’.

    • Seeing these densely packed convoys from civilian satellites is insane. If only we had given the Ukrainians some MLRS.

      • Hi Martin, I just couldn’t believe that convoy, all so close together and a huge amount of vehicles packed together, they must be very cocky about their local air defense and that they have secured the area from ground assault. I even think if Ukraine have any ballistic missiles left, they would struggle to miss those packed stationary vehicles.

        • The thing is… they don’t seem to be moving.

          So them being in one big traffic jam might be a good thing. If the Ukrainians can destroy their supply lines, then those vehicles aren’t going to be going anywhere and the troops may even start to run out of supplies.

    • I think the idea of a no fly zone using other nations aircraft was quickly stopped by all other nations as it would put said nations directly at war with Russia.

      It would be very easy targets however as the columns are not exactly hard to find or take out being slow moving and in such great numbers!

  26. It’s getting to the point that we need to send the Ukrainians some serious air defence systems. No legal reason why they could not be sent SAMP/T, Patriot or other theatre level air defence systems. Ukraine is a recognised sovereign nation allowed to buy such things and civilian contractors sent in to train on their use would be covered by the Geneva convention if captured. The Soviets did exactly this to the USA in north Vietnam and there was not a thing the Americans could do about it. They would not even bomb the ports for fear of hitting Russian advisers. Those Russian advisers ended up operating many of the systems. With theatre level air defence the Russian control of the air could be halted and even assets like AWACS would have to back off. We have sky Sabre which is deadly at close range but I think we have very few and it is not the kind of system that could dramatically change the air space picture. Not sure what our retired rapier batteries are doing or how useful they would be then again the Russians seem to be flying Low to avoid S300 and if SAMP/T or Patriot was in theatre they would have to fly very Low which would make MANPADS and systems like Rapier highly effective. Transfer or “sale” of such systems would allow us to create a no fly zone without starting WW3 and realistically what could the Russians do. We still have 1980’s Afghanistan in our mindset when it comes to arming the Ukrainians, we need to be thinking of lend lease or the USSR level of support for North Korea or North Vietnam where they sent them their biggest and best kit with volunteers to show them how to use it. This conflict may go on for years need to start looking at the longer term picture now. Bleed the Russian’s dry. Eurofighetrs should also be on the table, atleast tranche 1. I think it’s nonsense to say that existing pilots can not be re trained rapidly to use a new aircraft. Weeks or days not years especially if backed by technical experts or even serviced just across the boarder by “civilian” contractors. Russia has not actually declared war on Ukraine which means we can do anything we like and give them anything we want. We should use that freedom.

    • Those systems are super expensive, and pretty sure they need some serious training which takes time, otherwise likely to shoot civilian airliners in Poland or a Ukranian fighter jet.

      • I know that’s the standard argument, however we need to start thinking outside the box and getting a way to enforce a no fly zone without NATO starting ww3. A few polish mig 29’s are not going to do it. Money should be no object. Contractors can be found. If MBDA or Raytheon starts offering large six figure sums to existing personnel you will find volunteers. I’m guessing you can probably find enough to go for free. Most of what needs doing with a missile battery is driving it round and basic logistics a few advisers training a decent crew for a few weeks then accompanying them in the field can probably get results. Servicing can be done across boarders again by contractors. Not perfect but good enough. Any airliner with in missile range of a war zone is a combatant now. The lessons of MH17 where well learned.

  27. The UK and now most countries supporting Ukraine against this evil dictator, what is interesting the UAE and India both have not supported Ukraine, when Iran or Pakistan attacks them two countries lets not forget who the UK and Ukraine’s friends are.

    • 😐
      What has this got to do with Iran? We have nothing to do with the UAE. In this way, our economy is destroyed. Budget deficit and devaluation of national currency, inflation and ….

      • The Uk has a large military presence in the GGC RN assets helping keep the straight of Hornuz open which benefits the UAE, it gives India millions in aid, but India doesn’t buy UK weapon systems it buys French and Russian. Hope that answers your question Amin

    • We still send India and Pakistan £millions each year in aid despite Pakistan supporting the Taliban all through the Afgan fiasco and India having a bigger armed forces than the UK and its own space program now they are openly supporting the rabid dog in Russia, it should be time to take a look at supporting these two and use the money saved to help support the people of Ukraine.

      • That should have stopped, should have been stopped, should never of happened; we have better things that money could be spent on.

        • The DFID budget is issued on a need basis and not political favouritism. Unfortunately some of the poorest people on the planet live in Pakistan and India and that’s why they get money. It’s not hand outs to their governments, it goes direct to the ground. You can argue against the system sure but what’s better? Poor lower cast people in India get little say on the countries space program or nuclear weapons policy. India does not spend much on defence to begin with anyway. It’s not like China. Issues in South Asia also tend to have a much larger impact on the UK than areas such as Africa illegal migration being a major one. If DFID budget is to support UK objectives more would probably go to South Asia.

          • Hi Martin, both countries are democracies where the people can choose which government is in or out based on policy, including policies for the well-being of their people. sorry if those nations can afford to buy, develop and support the cost of nuclear weapons then they don’t need our aid funds. India has a space program, which they choose to have over the the poverty of those people.

  28. Men and material is good to send but how about a few A10’s donated to the Ukraine air force. They could be flown to Poland the Ukrainian pilots given a crash course then let lose on the Russian convoys. I do not think the convoys would be there for too long.

    • Thinking the same, but better had we declared such support with our own/USAF pilots & airpower doing their buisiness if Russia dared to invade. That was the best time to stop this before it started. Better a tense stand off than a countrydvastated by abrutal illegal invasion. Putin invades a neighbour(again!), nullifies their nationhood & right to exist(except as a puppet regime irregardless of their peoples wishes) despite formally(long time ago now!) guaranteeing their soveriegnty, brings terror, death & destruction, yet anything to counter is somehow proof in his eyes it is Russia somehow under attack & it is we who have escalated!

      • If or when Russia succeeds, what retribution will befall all who are found to have resisted? Tens of millions of peace loving democratic Ukrainians subjugated to terror & a criminal repressive foreign regime.
        Just like China(CCP) would like the free world to become. Who’ll be next unless we stand up & stop them? Syrian refugees living in Germany are being watched & even attacked by Assad agents & war criminals. Even bumping into those who tortured them in Syria. This is Putins playbook, his allies.

        How is it that Putin can do all the murderous, criminal, reckless & escalatory things he’s doing without fear of the same things we trot out as too risky to counter?

      • You are right it should have been done before this kicked off but Putin has rolled his dice at this time as he knows we have never been so week and our politicians have a twitchy hoop as we have nothing to back us up after 30 odd years of gutting our armed forces. So we must do what little we can do after we have let the rabid dog off the leash. It is quite clear that Nato dose not have the will to help the Ukraine directly so we must do all we can indirectly.

  29. I hope Biden wakes up & donates recently retired F-16 & F/A18C/D to East European NATO countries, so they can pass their old Soviet jets to Ukraine.

  30. Brimstone. Brimstone. Brimstone. Not for their planes, set it up so that it can be launched off the back of 4×4’s. There’s videos online of it being launched from the ground off rails. Swarms of small, highly mobile off-road vehicles, with 3-4 Brimstone each, NATO radios to get targeting squares, and a shed-load of Stingers for cover against helicopters. Give the Ukrainian’s the ability to play the deep game and fuck up these Russian armoured columns.

    • There’s a massive long column of Russian stuff, 40km long apparently on its way. Oh for a few planes stuffed with spear3. This is exactly the sort of thing it was meant for. For the detractors that say it’s too small, you wouldn’t launch several dozens of big cruise missiles at this sort of target, or would you? A dozen Typhoons with 12 spear3 each…well over 100 vehicles blown up all at the front of the column, absolute havoc.
      Dont disagree with Brimstone at all. Another weapon made for this sort of juicy target, and this one is travelling through a forested area.
      Amazing seeing good military intel arriving from a commercial satellite.
      AA

  31. Please show solidarity with Ukraine, by putting a blue & yellow flag in your front window. If Russians in Britain, ring home & say the windows here are full of Ukraine flags, it helps to undermine Putin’s propaganda.

    • I’ve been trying to do that on FB too, like what happened when the terrorist scum attacked Paris targets.

  32. The Ukrainian forces have done heroics, but there are increasing hints that their front line units are running low on munitions. Large quantities of weapons seem to be arriving in Eastern Poland, but Ukraine is unable collect these and quickly issue them to units hundreds of miles away. A second major problem is training, whilst Ukraine has many army personnel familiar with Javelin and NLAW, using newly arrived weapons such as AT4, Stinger, Panzerfaust 3, M72 LAW et al effectively will present huge challenges – particularly when the manual is in a foreign language.

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