Britain says ‘highly unlikely’ Russia achieving objectives

Thanks. I assume the justification is that use of chemical weapons is outlawed under the Geneva Treaty of 1925 and the Chemical Weapons Convention of 1993.

His type don’t generally quit. They just burn it all down as they go.

Agreed. It is not necessarily just his head on the block though. There must be many more Russians with a lot to lose – perhaps some of them have some influence

I think that’s our only hope. But like Hitler he has had many years to ensure those around him follow or believe and the rest of the public are feed a constant diet of what he wants them to know until every thinks in double think or is to powerless or scared to act ( most Germans knew what was happening in the 30s and then 40s but did nothing).

Putin will be worried about a a von stauffenburg hence the long tables maybe. Certainly the problem is a Russian one and they will need to sort out their leadership. The rest of the world can’t make their decisions for them.

But they can force it’s hand my money 💰 is in a military coup

ditto Andy

Mark ,maybe if the Russian people were too find out that A Presidents yearly salary does not equate too what he has in his Bank accounts and how he has acquired this wealth then maybe just maybe the same would happen too him as what happened to putins mate in 2014 Ukraine

Russian leaders are not renown for their longevity a coup to get rid of him is not out of a possibility Th Po of the oligarchs is endless and when life gets hard for the family they will remove the cause, and cut the head off the snake 🐍 or the military Will do it as a reward for the debacle We’re. Seeing

Ukraine waas once known as the breadbasket of the East I’d hope a scorched earth policy won’t happen there

To be honest Andy this years crop will be done for anyway. Even if there is any harvest, yealds Williams be crap as there will not be any work don on soil nutrients ( which you would be doing now for wheat). Barely needs putting in the group now as well. Finally what infrastructure will be in place to store and export any crops.

Red lines do not exist NATO dies not exist to take aggressive military action sulpos8 a line was drawn where if Russia encroached what would we do? If say a no fly zone if a Russian plane ignores it and refuses to leave the area what happens? If it is shot down thenww3 Will happen.

Yep, considering there are stories out there of them being told they are going on Exercise….

The Ukraine will become what Chechnya was a non stop issue which will spread inside Russia itself in 6 from of terrorism in short Russia’s Vietnam

100% agree…
Looks like the Ukrainians copied the play book of Sharp…

Dave, iwas thinking that about how many Senior Ranking Officers have now gone and wondered whether all went through actions of Ukrainian or the Russian Conscripts “Fragged” them

When chemical weapons were used in Allepo Syria. Obama made a statement that if such weapons were used a recline would have been crossed! Nothing happened because it was Syria. This is Europe we are talking about, a completely different ball game. If Russia gets away with It in Ukraine, NATO knows that borders will have no boundaries.

Hope so…who would lead the PK effort…China? India? South Americans? Perhaps a combined Swedish / Finish effort.

Would have too find a country that has no vested interest in either Country Pete

That’ll be the oirish, they’ll drag the bastard Russians to the table and drink them under it.

However, they’re tough lads.

Stupid o’clock at Katowice station last week and 18 carriage long trains coming in. We know about men not being allowed to leave; I saw no young teenage boys on the trains.

And then on Saturday, mum, two daughters and jack russell – they were knackered, but, not broken.

Her husband was fighting, she was going home.

No words.

My personal opinion. The Ukraine is not a no go zone for NATO, send in medical convoys – if attacked, we unleash hell on the Russians.

Thanks David ,it’s quite heart wrenching watching families being torn apart ,your last piece, on sending in Medical convoys The Russians dont give much credence for Medical vehicles, their’s normally don’t carry Medical equipment ,Just Ammunition and other non medical equipment , they think that if they do it ,we do it ,and would probably attack them , .Then it would be Gloves off ,Biden would have no excuse not too

Just as much Chance of China making a grab at tiawan

James I’ll Give Sleepy Joe something ,when he stated that if the US or NATO were too get involved ,with Russia in the Ukraine, WW3 would be the outcome and seeing how ADOLF Putin is acting the reality of it happening is closer than Biden would like His and Nato hands are tied Putin knows this and will continue his barbaric actions even Chenobyl could become a false flag terrorist action for Putin claiming that Ukrainian terrorist have compromise the Nuclear security at the Plant sending radiation across western Europe like 86 but this time Deliberate

Putin is pushing the boundaries and he is certainly testing the US and the west to the absolute limit here.

I really hope he doesnt go down the route of chemical or small scale nuclear attacks.

My predication Belarus enters the frame from the north heading to Ukraines Western cities whilst Russia continues its slow progress in other areas of the east and South whilst circling Kiev and starting to attack Odessa.

With fuel prices going insane and the anti war sentiment gathering in the West pressures on governments all around the world is getting stronger and stronger. Putin knows this and he will just bide his time to get negotiators to give him what he wants.

‘Anti-war sentiment gathering in the west’ ? Where in the west ? 🙄🤔

Do you want it as per a compass or as per whats very commonly known as the ‘western’ world?

I’ll take that as a no then.

Think you are answering a different question to what you asked initially.

Putin realises that his Librration ploy isn’t holding water, The Russian Ivan on the streets like winners regardless of how they achieve it the first rule of Communism was if at first you don’t succeed Cheat such as with the Olympics.So Putin has ratcheted it up too now Looking for WMDS (bio and Chemical) this has been leaked too the Russian public as a justification for his New task of ensuring that Russia security will be garrentied when the job is complete regardless of the cost beit Civilian and their own military Putin is all about being about a Strong Winner as a Leader who will be enshrined as a great patriotic Hero who saved the federation from Nazi tyranny Blah Blah Blah Putin ” Beware the ides of March that’s all I’m saying fingers crossed James

Russian leaders are not renown for longevity it could be that a coup of some description may happen

It would have too be from the populous and lower ranks of the Armed Forces ,Putin greases the hands of everyone else he has them in his pocket either with treats or threats Andy

Andy ,By 2014 it was reckoned that Putin had amassed a wealth through his protection or what’s known in Russian as “Roof” the bigger the “Roof the greater the Protection at an estimated 40 billion making him one of the richest men in the world and that 134 friends of him own 40^ of Russia wealth I wonder what the average Russian on the street would make of it How a Servent of the People on a President salary could Legally amass such a fortune

Really Andy? Leaving aside the sick old men (Andropov, Chernenko): Stalin (29 yrs), Krushchev (11 yrs), Brezhnev (18 yrs), Gorbachev (7 yrs), Putin (22 yrs as President/PM).

However, coup is very likely.

If the Ukrainian situation doesn’t make vast expansion of the European members of NATO aPriority what will?

I dont disagree, Putin has done exactly what he didnt want to rally everyone to join NATO, I can see alot of non European countries pushing to join also.

NATO mistake was not deploying into Ukraine before the invasion started. They choice to be weak and Russia is now exploiting it. The decision was made and now there is no going back, NATO can’t now get involved, no matter what happens in Ukraine. The red line will have to be another country.

No such thing as a redline it a media generated press buzz word.

Putin is getting his “victory”, but at a glacial pace & at a huge cost to Russia & Ukraine. Any rational leader would be looking for a way out, with a deal. The fact that Putin isn’t, makes me fear this war is going to drag on. Only if the West mans up & becomes more resolute, while staying calm, but firm, is there any chance of the Kremlin seeking a genuine deal.

Putin and his nation will count the cost when an insurgency starts in his own cities Ukrainian terrorism like with the Chechens will turn the nation against him and his fellow nodding dogs responsible for the fiasco

I think NATO forces suitable for an intervention (Tanks, Artillery, SAMs, combat jets & helicopters) should be deploying to South Eastern Poland & Eastern Slovakia. We would still be on NATO lands, but dropping a heavy hint to Putin, that he had better get serious about offering Ukraine an honorable deal.

It is said that one key reason the USSR collapsed was because the economy could not support the defence spend. Might this happen again with Russia?

Yes, but it might take years.

I doubt it. But depends how badly the war goes. As the sanctions bite and if the Russian army fail to bring results, Putin might find himself cornered in his desire to maintain control of Russia. His power has always been a compromise with the rich elite and if he can’t bring them new wealth by taking Ukraine, they might look to remove him.

I think the end game has started for Putin. I don’t see how he can recover politically from this debacle.

Not necessarily as the A10 was built to survive and if the Russkie AD is as woeful as it’s other arms then the possibility of pretty much wiping out these car parks of incompetence are very high!

The believe some have in own propaganda is outstanding.

Your typed English is a little unclear, however I think I know your meaning. I leave the propaganda to those who are fools, to myself and others who have experience on the subject matter, I give you………experience.

Experience from those around me in the Falklands the made all the difference when the missiles were flying experience is a force multiplyer and a massive difference in getting the best out of those in any situation.

Yes that would be you Russians lol.

Not going very well for you Ivan is it lol, Russia the butt of all military jokes.

You really are incapable of seeing the vulnerability of an A-10 against manpads and other AA. it is really instructive to see how people change their rules depending the side they are.
The minor variations between a Su-25 and A-10 do not make a relevant difference in survival against manpads.

That in the end you resort to ad hominem also show more about you than about me.

 What on earth were all the tanks doing lined up on a major road

Do you have any criticism to say to this phrase Airborne? if you don’t have you know nothing.

You are struggling with your English, which I take it, is not your first language? I have much criticism of the Russkies ongoing tactical desicison making, at every level of command. It would be most interesting to hear your take on the ongoing Russkie operation AlexS? Doing well do you think?

It has been a disaster, i even saw photos of Russian T-72 that the reactive armour bricks had no explosives inside..

But tanks starting to assemble is typical of a military operation.
Interestingly i answer to your questions but you don’t to mine.

What questions, the only one I haven’t answered was the silly one about “if I don’t see what’s wrong with that’s line I know nothing” mmmmmm well I answer the questions and ask my own, as after nearly 30 years as a professional soldier in the mil, at every rank up to LE commission, and the various jobs they bring, I do question your subject knowledge comments and subject matter experience. As your posts are quite simplistic and with due respect show a very limited military experience without decent level of command experience.

They know the practicalies of assembling a force to advance…
Do you think that you can have you force always dispersed?
And the dispersion don’t make other risks increase?
The problem with ignorant commentaries here is that you and others think that they can do war as a set piece, information is always 80-100% reliable and on time, you can go move on and every enemy ATGW team will be detected and bombarded before being in range, enemy artillery will destroyed etc etc…
And at end of the war the causalities are numbered in 100 or so.
Basically a fairy tale.

In short you have been brainwashed by the huge advantage of West in recent years.

Thank you for the explanation Alex. I understand what you are saying, as the adage goes “no plan survives first contact ”

That being said, I’m not the one having my tank column blown into next week.

might this be due to to the terrain being too muddy for open movement of tanks.

To be fair , I know of several incidents in ww2 where German and allied tanks were caught in similar circumstances. A single Tiger tank under Michael Wittman destroyed 28 British tanks and vehicles in a column outside  Villers-Bocage, France in1944.

Combined arms tactics I say no more!

You are only in combined arms tactics deployed for combat, in movement and in mounting or demounting you are not in combined arms tactics. A column of Russian tanks and a column of British tanks moving along an European typical route with vegetation are vulnerable to be ambushed and to long range artillery.
For example what AA missiles does British Army(criticism valid for most NATO countries) have that can fire on the move or short stop?
NATO army would need some ad-hoc trucks filled with manpads to have some sort of AA defence.

Wrong mate I’m afraid, combined arms tactics isn’t just about combat, it starts from the planning phase (indeed needs to by trained and practiced for years) to the build up, moving from the LOD, towards, upto and through the objective. It’s a very in depth subject which would appear that you are not well versed in it. To keep it as simple as possible for the layman, here goes! You utilise assets and platforms from all 3 dimensions, let’s say a BCT moving from the LOD towards its objective, big main road heading towards objective, 1 x Chally Sqn, 2 x Warrior Coy, plus RE Troop, any AD with other Atts and Dets.

To start with ground appreciation, best routes, formations, 1 up 2 back, 2 up, sub unit formations moving tactical in TPS/Plt/Sqn, comms plan, EW available? leapfrogging etc, so route recce, UAV eyes on, ground recce? OS on call, GMLRS or guns, where’s the JTAC (Apaches on call, fast air?) ISTAR assets in place, any overwatch (any suitable higher ground) follow the road/handrail/box around upto 1-2KM either side, location of AD, actions on VPs (vulnerable points ie that fucking obvious xroads covered by trees), actions on casualties, actions on contact (whatever) logistics plan, Med plan and combat service support! Shit the bed this could go on, I’m not giving a set of formal orders I’m trying highlight the considerations and “moving parts” of a professional, well practiced and motivated combined arms plan! No plan survives contact with the enemy as you have correctly said, so you got to the other well trained plan, B, then C, then D….. you get the idea!

Or, drive straight down the fucking road in one massive armoured column with your thumb up your arse Russkie style, as that’s the easiest and simplest to do as it takes no time or cost to train for!

Haha I can see the Russian generals frantically looking for pen a paper to copy down what you wrote and use it.
It would appear that some of the troops do not want to get out of the armoured vehicles until it’s to late.
My worry would be where are the better units of the Russian army?
I had thought before this Ukraine business that Russia was a 2 tier army.
With a smaller number of better equipped, better trained units akin to a smaller European army and then a larger number of soldiers still with the old equipment left over from soviet days.
Russia could never of afforded to do all the things they wish. Looks like the army suffered.
The Russians want a large modern nuclear force. (Very expensive). Nuclear submarine force of attack and ballistic missile subs(very expensive), large normal navy, bomber units in airforce(expensive) and a large force of fighters, interceptors, close support aircraft.(again expensive). Transport and support aircraft. air defence units, Coastal anti ship weapons etc etc etc. The list goes on and on. It adds up to many more times what they spend on defence. Then add in constant training of units so they all work together seamlessly. Add in a massive geographical area for these units to meet up and train across.
So if you don’t have enough money in your forces what is the first things that normally suffer? At a guess I would say training, maintenance and with that moral goes down.

Agreed mate, they want to be seen to have a large modern military while Ukraine has shown they are a large army yes, capable no, and certainly lacking any sort of quality training and real multi dimensional capability! They have shown to the world maybe we have all been worrying throughout the Cold War (aside from the nukes) for nothing! It’s shocking (fortunately) to see just how bad their tactics, training and C3 is at every level! Cheers mate!

Humans currently have a worse reproduction rate than Pandas and we are not an organism like any other we are technologically capable. Lab grown meat is already being sold, in 10 years it will be 10 times cheaper than regular meet and most farmland on earth with return to nature. We can support billions more humans on earth not that we will have the need as the birth rate in virtually every country is below replacement and rapidly falling.

Birth rates are falling in most Western countries you mean?

Considering 100% of the African continent is at a multiple birth rate figure, middle east also, most of Asia and South America aswell, that accounts for a huge portion of the world still breeding in multiples.

James , the same Western trend is occurring in China, with a dramatic reduction in birth rates- a hangover from the one child policy.
India and the rest of the developing world , as you point out is a very different picture.

I forgot to add this insight from a us fertility study
:”China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4b in four years’ time before nearly halving to 732m by 2100.”

Martin, the drivers around human population more complex that reproduction. Rates, yes we have very low reproduction. Rates compared to most animals, but our mortality rates and life expectancy are off the chart. We utterly dominate the mammal biomass on the planet, 96% of all mammal biomass is focused on humanity ( manly feeding us).

The most important thing is that yes we have technology and especially in the west we think that removes us from natural forces. But it does not. The vast majority of humanity is fed by growing plants and we have been doing this with farming methods that are not sustainable.soil damage and degradation is a huge threat to human food security and the only way to maintain soil is to reduce output. Also we are very dependent on an increasing smaller less biodiversity safe number of crops ( we cut down diversity and keep only the highest producers). This creates a risk around disease and pests, which can only be controlled by massive use of chemicals, which destroy soil health ( it’s an ever more risky circle of increasing risk of crashing food production). When you soil health dies so do you.

Our food crops are also very open to destruction by water and temp changes. So a 4 degree change will remove food production from Africa, the central USA, China, India ect.

finally you talk about things like cultured meat. It’s very early doors but we know That’s is massively energy intensive and the process creates very large amounts of CO2 ( long term it creates more global warming that traditional animal husbandry as methane is removed from the atmosphere in 10 or so years over the few hundred for CO2) But the biggest problem is that the process not only grows vast amounts of synthetic hormon and other chemicals that are needed to be pumped into the water which will cause potentially significant damage to fresh waterways if it becomes industrialised. There is also concern around other public health issues such as poor micronutrient uptake and what it would mean for public health in mass consumption of what is essentially a cell grown using the same process as cancer cells grow.

So all in all at present population Growth rates we will need to somehow up out food production by 70% in the face of soil destruction, water insecurity, changing temperatures that will kill off whole years of food production. That is more than being a bit clever over cultured meat.

Finally for all our cleverness, even at our present population level 25,000 people a day every day die of starvation, including 10,000 children. We even kill 5000 children a day due to not being able to provide clean potable water…we are so so clever, but Nature is nature and we are biologically beings and lack of food is just waiting to kill any of us.

Martin ,I don’t think your panda analogy is accurate when weighted against the developing world (Africa and Asia) birth rates?

I quote a US fertility study:

“The population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to treble in size to more than three billion people by 2100.

And the study says Nigeria will become the world’s second biggest country, with a population of 791 million.”

The irony is Jonathan, the Chinese introduced a 1 child per couple many decades ago, only to be treated with scorn and derision by the west. Some of the criticism they received, was from human rights activists.

Maybe they knew something more than the rest of us back then…

Yes they did they had just started to try repair the damage of the cultural revolution in which 20million or so chinese people starved to death. The one child policy was to prevent mass starvation at the time.

I have never been a lover of the idea of human rights, as it’s all a social construct that does not work when it meets reality. If your in a desert with a group of people with no food and water where is the right to life. I only really believe in the concept of obligation. So we have an obligation to try and help our fellow humanity as much as we can….so it’s interlinking obligation of the individual and society not rights.

Jonathan, thanks for your detailed post , this is really interesting reading. On the Chinese population, I came across this: “China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4b in four years’ time before nearly halving to 732m by 2100.”

Hi Klondike, yes China is a really interesting case as it’s the only place that has had actual social modification of fertility and it worked very well indeed. But I’m not sure they will be able to revers it back due to increases wealth of the population.

What is interesting is that it became more successful the greater the wealth and wellbeing of the population. As with first world countries it’s fertility dropped the wealthier it became. So if you go back about 10-20 years it’s fertility rates was about 1.7 ( which is what the U.K. is now) it’s now down to 1.3. So what it looks like is that you can change a poor Nations fertility rate by either social engineering or but making the population wealthier, China ended up do both and has really dropped it fertility rate ( you need a rate of 2.1-2.3 to maintain a population).

The big problem is the fertility rates in the second and third world are still through the roof and will be for a long time as their is neither the wealth control or the social control in place. What is the most tragic think is these are the places where we can’t even feed the populations now and with global warming it’s going to be catastrophic. It’s really sick but the places where most children are being born are exactly the places that cannot support increase population.

The utter tragic thing is that Martin although completely miss understand what the evidence based risk assessments have been saying ( most of the populations of Africa, south/Central America, and the Asian sub continent will suffer catastrophic population loss by 2100 and will not support large human populations). Is on to one thing, there is potentially a lot of capacity left on the planet, but the populations are all in the wrong place. Although the areas around the Indian subcontinent and China are massively populated and are going to suffer, most of central and North Asia is empty of people and is not being utilised to grow food. That whole part of the world will become even more friendly to food production and people as the planet warms. We could shift the billions there if we so wished. But humanity will not do that instead we will shed a few tears and thank god it’s not us.

Thanks again for the detailed reply Jonathan

I generally get my information from papers in peer reviewed scientific, public health, health care and risk management journals to be honest.

A… I fail to see the relevance that any fleet street publication, has with my post.
B… The world population of the 11th century was approximately 750 million.
C… You come across as a ‘live for now, bugger the future’ person. That be the case, good luck with that.
D… I have children, and whether you like it or not, the earth is buggered, and those children, as well as any offspring they may have, will be even more buggered.

Tom, the thing that keeps me trying with all my own green agenda is that the U.K. will be one of those places that should offer a good life to future generations. Most places above around 40 degrees North or south will be hotter but fine.

But for the U.K. especially there is one final thing that will mean apart for the sea level rise we will suffer just about the least impact on the planet. Due to significant increase rainfall in the Northern hemisphere above about 40-50 degrees north. We are seeing significant desalination of the northern oceans, at some point this will lead to a shut down of the gulf stream. This is really important stuff as depending when and how it shuts down will create an ingesting time. First off it dumps a massive amount of heat from southern latitudes to northern latitudes ( strait into the UKs face actually). This both removes heat from souther latitudes and warms the U.K. ( and the rest of Northern Europe and east coastal Canada to a lesser extent). But without it we become more like the southern bit eastern Canada and southern alaska ) so if it shut down tomorrow we would have the joy of proper winters and sea ice. But if it shuts down in say 50 years it will reset the UKs climate to just about what we have now. So the 100 year modelling for temp change in the U.K. is very marginal, we will have longer growing Seasons and a touch warmer as well as a lot more rain….so our food production will probably be Ok. That’s all really dependent on there not being any triggered environmental feedback loops as the. Every large land and marine animal dies in a mass dying event. they think, sort of think, hope with fingers crossed…..This happens above 4 degrees and we can if we try hard keep warming below 4 degrees. ( interesting fact 4.5 degrees is the difference between now and the last major ice age when Europe was entirely under kilometres of ice sheets. So that’s the scale of a 4 degree change).

But I hold onto the fact my grandchildren will have to deal with a massive guilt complex over the rest of the world while growing grapes and sunflowers in their back gardens.

I was hoping we would get a bit of an old Cold War warrior statesman in Bidden…but I fear we have not.

Blinken for President. Today please.

Sleepy Joe Biden will not act on Ukraine until he can get his troops out of Vietnam

John Florida already has a crisis with Non Indigenous Snakes
,they don’t need another

Least worst option. Otherwise its KH. Dear God no!

👍 what else is left in the bottom of the Barrel John

how many professional battle experienced troops does Ukraine have?

Thousands that have been fighting in Donbass since 2014.

How many is that then, 2,000, 20,000, 80,000?

The estimate is that the UkA had in the demarcation trench network, for most of the years since 2016, around 50,000 on average with up to half of them conscripts, depending on the numbers of the latter available. It increased to around 100, 000 last April, causing the mirror Russian build up. Then a further increase at the end of last year/start of this year to 120,000+ when the Russians attacked.

That many of Ukraine’s most important units were part of that increase convinced Russia that the UkA was going to attack end Feb/start March. Hence it was an important factor why the Russians struck first.

Incidentally, in an interesting strategic decision by the UkA, they are still there, almost no units having been withdrawn west. There is a chance that it is now too late given reports that their fuel supplies are very low and the Russians are moving to encircle them.

No, yet again the reason the Russkie bandwagon struck first is that they wanted to finish the illegal invasion they started in 2014! Your continued justification for an illegal invasion is yet again more weak propaganda from a troll, who thinks an illegal invasion by a megalomaniac Nazi can be justified by having a neighbouring country, already invaded, building strong defence on its own soil! Do stop with the chuff you are now making yourself look even sillier than when before the invasion you stated Putin had no intentions to do so! And for the audience, any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine yet?

What forces exactly did the Ukraine have to worry Russia exactly?

Any land force entering Russian territory would have zero chance without the capability to do a sustained long range bombardment into Russian areas first, which Ukraine does not posses.

Im sorry but this narrative that Russia was threatened in any way is utter horse s**t and everyone can see through it. Even using Nato as a threat is complete bollocks whilst we are on the subject. Nato covers what, 5% of Russia’s land borders even if Ukraine joined that might be 6%, huge huge encirclement of Russian territory going on hey!

Does MK stand for Moscow Kremlin?

Absolute rubbish. There has never been any threat posture by Ukraine or NATO towards Russia. NATO is a defensive alliance made up of countries with democratic governments and free populations. They border barely one sixteenth of Russia’s total border. It is Putins fear of democracy and freedom that made him and his cabal of Nazis attack Ukraine. Russia has been carrying out cyber and grey zone attacks on the west (Salisbury, Litvenenko), for many years.

BTW JohninMK, do you ever feel like you are just another ‘useful idiot ‘ as Comrade Lenin put it ? The Nazis you are defending and gaslighting for are billionaires with luxury yachts, gated mansions, private jets, supercars and exclusive lifestyles. They are so far removed from the experience of ordinary Russians it’s obscene. Yet here you are trolling away, as you eke out an existence in either Milton Keynes or Vladivostock, who knows? Maybe it makes you proud to be a communist.

134 friends of Vlad puking own 40% of Russia’s wealth credit suisse has worked out that the average Russian earns less per month than an average Indian earns Posse

🙄

Delete/insert Russkies as well. Sounds like its becoming excuses excuses time.

Agreed mate, but I was also alluding to other capabilites which we have, not just the platforms, but the ability of the various platforms, in all 3 dimensions. Modern warfare isnt about numbers as we know, its about the ability to fuse together, over years of training the various arms, kit and capabilites, in order achieve the desired end state. For example, the use of various ISTAR assets, UAV, secure and burst comms, sats, EW assets, smart munitons and sensor fusion of platforms. And of course, which many ignore, is the skill set of the people involved.

Exactly alot of force multipliers exist within our and others equipment and training.

Russian piling tons of old tech equipment in is a blunt tactic and is slowly working but they have the numbers to sacrifice doing this.

We would operate in a different way to different results.

Agreed mate!

Let’s not make this more complicated than it really is. Putin is paranoid and as one Russian woman was quoted today, needs to go to therapy. Medical definition.
“paranoid personality disorder a personality disorder in which the patient views other people as hostile, devious, and untrustworthy and reacts in a combative manner to disappointments or to events that he or she considers rebuffs or humiliations”
All this Putin greater Russia history destiny stuff is the output of a sick mind.
Join up the dots…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22806866

Yes but in reality we don’t have a land borders Our defence has always been about sea and air…

As for age of our stuff, challenger 2 is 24 years old not 40-50. Exactly how many Soviet made tanks were lost in the Iraq invasion vs western tanks and western forces that were a generation behind what we have now, but still completely destroyed a very large soviet high density low quality army ?

Numbers only matter if they are in some way matched against capability. A single 2nd generation class British SSN essentially forced the entire Argentinian navy into port as they had no answer to it.

essentially if you cannot fight it because of the qualitative difference quantity can become a chain around your neck.

Exactly how many Soviet made tanks were lost in the Iraq invasion vs western tanks and western forces

Yes but that is with USA and other allied support, obviously the overmatch is enormous and in that circumstances an one sided combat chances increases several fold.

Now do a British Vs Iraq in Iraq and check what result would be.
UK vs Ukraine

Probable result is that the one on defence would win.

Let us know your country of origin then let’s talk about your home countries ability’s, defence expenditure and contribution to NATO. Always interesting to get others opinions on their own military organisations.

Pretty much a disaster but we still have tanks!

Then please let us know your country of origin so we can have a fruitful chat about relevant capabilities and operational commitments to previous, ongoing and future NATO operations. Every military can have its specialty and niche capabilities! And we all have tanks (even the Dutch are getting some back operational) 👍

Your missing the point Alex. The ground forces available to Iraq in 2003 were astronomical in numbers, Iraq had and army of 350,00, 20,000 paramilitary, 80,000 republican guard and around 900,000 reservists, within that you are looking at 2000-3000 tanks.

On the US/U.K. side you had just shy of 200,000 and a few hundred MBTs.

In the end the Coalition did not even use all its available forces.

what makes the difference is very expensive up today modern capability. If an armed forces cannot fight in all domains including EW and intelligence, numbers become meaningless and in Iraq they were simply more dead.

Numbers of men and out of date tanks mean very little if they are all dead from an enemy they could not see to engage.

so Yes Ukriane has done well but it has an army created on a defence budget 15 times smaller that the U.K. defence budge and 10 time’s smaller that the Russian budget.

The reason Ukraine is managing is that effectively Russia has spend money on mass but not been able to keep up with enablers, so it’s slowly grinding what is a vastly smaller but peer army via attrition and as it’s attack a peer that can engage it with weapons supples by the west with western intel its suffering horrible casualties. Western armies when they have engaged armies with the level of enablers show by both russia and Ukraine simply out EW them and destroy them from a distance before they really know the fight they are in.

What this has really helped to show. Is that Russia is still at the Soviet level, with reduced mass and resources and that the European theatre is even harder on that type of Poorly enables hammer than we thought.

back the original point you challenges me on. Numbers of armed soldiers are not relevant if they are so out matched by the quality of the opposition that they are unable to engage and simply become a target or mouth to feed. It’s the same with ships, jets and anything else. So yes Ukraine has a large army, but it’s still weak, because it’s a technological peer to Russia which has a far larger army. it’s not a peer of the armed forces of the major western powers, even if larger.

For me it’s encouraging as it shows NATOs main concern is around.

1) political will and the fact Putin outplays the west on the sub open conflict field
2) Nuclear blackmail and the trap of escalation. ( NATO will not act due to being scared to escalate).

These two facts are difficult to manage and will need focus.

Agreed about the material depth, but its not about numbers (only those with no military or combat experience think like that) its about the full range of capabilites, and the ability to fuse those capabilites into an effective, well trained, combined arms force, capable of independant action with the C3 to ensure it happens.

You can only be holistic with numbers otherwise we are talking about specops, and when all the meat are in the grinder are not decisive.

If 100 Challenger II are damaged , 15 destroyed and 30 with faulty equipment. There is only less than 100 remaining. There is not much you can do about that.
You can only do an offensive if there are tools for that.

Like I said numbers matter but a professional military work past the numbers, and use TTPs, to ensure you mitigate your weakness and push to your advantage. You will always lose people and platforms in war, it’s a case of how many, and how often, prior to you achieving the mission! And as you are from Western Europe you are fully aware no NATO country will fight alone in a peer conflict so the subject is moot! Countries play to their strengths, mitigate weakness and have niche capabilities they bring to the team table!

Interesting use of Bn, the Brits use the term armoured Regiment for tanks and leave the term Bn for the Infantry!

I am not British but i am from Western Europe.

Agreed to an extent, but also there is more than the land dimension we operate in, and its about the ability of operating together effectively. Numbers do have a quality of there own agreed, but at the moment the Russkie numbers are just targets.

Looks to me that infantry are doing quite well at the moment against ‘vastly’ superior armour!

Looks to me that infantry are doing quite well at the moment against ‘vastly’ superior armour!

That depends what “well” means, they are giving a bloddy nose to the Russians, but are not conquering their country back. At distance they seems to be loosing slowly.
Like Churchill said after Dunkirk : wars are not won by successful evacuations.

We also don’t know how Ukranians are using their armored forces, we have bias toward what appears in videos: Infantry(with ATGW) and drones.

Have the Russians actually conquered anything apart from the roads towards their objectives? I would hazard a guess and say most Ukrainians in the ‘conquered’ territory have not even seen a Russian yet! And I did say “at the moment” with what they were managing to do.

Even having trouble with the roads 😂👍!

JOHN, When I was a young whippasnapprr, used too play in the Anderson shelter in our Back garden in Colindale NW London not a very gas or Radiation proof build though PS your not on a commission are you ?

50p & a bottle of Tizer would buy me. Sadly, nobody offers.

And manpads. Whilst it is just hand held missiles it’s easy. When they need bulk artillery ammunition and rations it becomes more complicated.

Not only that the basic high bulk stuff, they must be burning through bullets and food and fuel as the cities become shattered potable water will become a logistic nightmare as well.

But a right hand drive bright yellow 3 wheeler will stick out like a sore thumb Johnathan

You know what they say, always hide in plain sight…no one expects trotters independence traders….

It’s bound too upset the BBCs Prop dept remember the BBC is a Nonadvertising Corporation Johnathan

luvly jubbly Jonathan! Perhaps Mr Bean can join in his mini?

That’s more like it Klonkie won’t stick out either 🚙

👌