Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has expressed the UK’s support for Ukraine and stressed NATO’s role as she attended a virtual NATO Foreign Ministers’ meeting.
The above image shows British soldiers on exercise in Ukraine.
We will defend democracy in eastern Europe and around the world. Our support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering. We are clear that any Russian incursion would be a massive strategic mistake, for which there would be a severe cost.
The Russian Government needs to de-escalate, pursue diplomatic channels and abide by its commitments on the transparency of military activities. We will be discussing this at the NATO-Russia Council next week.”
Earlier today we reported that the Foreign Secretary had stated that Britain is “ensuring that Ukraine has the capability to defend itself”.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said in Parliament:
“In December, I visited British troops forming part of NATO’s enhanced forward presence at Tapa in Estonia, where allies are helping to protect the border with Russia. We are working with our NATO partners to ensure that that protection remains in place and is enhanced so that we can fulfil our commitments.
With Ukraine, we are ensuring that it has the capability to defend itself. That involves training, and the UK has trained more than 20,000 troops in Ukraine. We are also supplying extra capability for naval defences as well as support in areas such as cyber-security and other services.”
Words are cheap and Putin knows it. I’d suggest the message would hit home if NATO immediately bumped defence spending upwards, across all members, by 1% of GDP. Remember we won the first Cold War by draining the Russian economy through requiring them to match NATO spending. That strategy will work again because Russia can’t hope to match NATO economically.
There is no possibility of European countries upping defence spending by much let alone that much. As to outspending the Russians forcing them to match it, they seem to be resolutely refusing to do so. Back then the Russians were not top rank energy suppliers which changed everything. Instead it is the US that is under the economic cosh having to print huge amounts of $ debt to fund its bloated defence budget. They pull out of huge spends in Afghanistan and the budget goes up???
the u.s military is under the biggest restrictions budgetwise since anyone can remember its not beyond possibility that americas military influences could go the way that the brish forces went in the 1960’s
USA Defence Budget 2022 is USD770 Billion vs 2021 USD725 Billion. Hardly under pressure !!
Compared to the inflation rate that’s a real term decrease.
With Russia having a economy smaller than Italy gas exports is the only thing keeping it afloat , as for military spending its a benefit for Russia to be a dictatorship to take up 15% of its budget while its peoples living standard decreases and suffers ,hence the wests much much higher living standard Ivan.
Yes just like the elites in Kazakhstan have helped themselves to the wealth, the Kazai phenomenon could rear it’s ugly head in Russia any time soon.
👍
Just watch your back Mr Putin,
your people are going rise up against you soon! You still haven’t told us where you have hidden Russia’s money?
It’s unlikely, unfortunately it’s not in the character of the Russian people to rise up against the strong man.
look how long it took them to rebel against the Imperial Russian state which was a system that had been overthrown in Western Europe 200-400 years before.
nations have responsive government because of the likelihood of the population to exert pressure. The big reason England was so successful was that every leader for the mid Middle Ages knew that there was only so far they could push as the English have made it a hobby of killing off members of the ruling classes if they push to far.
As you said Jonathan, the Russian people rebelled eventually, against the old Imperial Russian state, and they most likely do so again in future against the present ‘mafia state’.
the old wasaw pact failed militarily because technology wise and quality wise it couldn’t keep up with NATO and money for the military was in short supply due to the financial state of its economysurely the enforcement upon russia and china may be the wests best response to their global intentions?
My point exactly Andy. If we can get Germany to cancel the ruddy gas pipeline and confiscate all Putin’s ill gotten gains squirreled away in the west (we should then put it in a trust fund for return to the Russian people when we can, remember they are the worst losers in all this), then Putin’s mafia regime has nowhere to go. Can the mafia state compete with NATO’s massive economy – No and never will.
It was really the US under Reagan, rather than NATO, that forced the USSR into an arms race that the latter could not afford.
is it just me or does it look like push is coming to shove with russia and that as things stand we are close to a real flashpoint incident?
The military equivalent of sending someone a strongly worded letter. NATO is not going to go to war with a nuclear armed state over Ukraine. The Biden administration has already signaled its unwillingness to deploy forces, and it’s insane to think the Britain would without America’s backing.
So has NATO nuclear armed states.
it just cancels out! The US could strike Russian warpons storage or nuclear warpon sites with accurate conventional warpons, they might intend to use, they would have No justification to retaliate with Nuclear weapons.
It is just the matter of Biden getting a spine!
….and then the Russians retaliate with conventional weapons, and it escalates.
The Russians are totally out gunned by NATO/US in quantity and quality of systems.
When it comes to nuclear war being “outgunned” is kind of a meaningless concept.
Well yes and know, there is a cut of point, effectively anything over 50 low yield warheads each would Likely cause a castrophic failure of worldwide food production over around a 5-7 year period, killing a good billion or two.
That’s all very well, but since attacking Russia would trigger a major European war that would involve huge numbers of casualties across all of Europe I think not if it’s ok with you.
Also what would be the aim and objective, we can’t invade and overthrow or take over Russia ( france and German both tried that one). Simply destruction of Russia’s armed forces would lead to a Russia that had one aim ( rebuilding and destruction of Western Europe).
Any major war with Russia is a zero sum game that will reignite an age strife and suffering for Europe and Russia.
We need to be strong and able to defend ourselves to that means having a big stick while having and open discussion with Russia on how we live together and repair the mistrust.
The aim and objective of a strike on Russian forces, would be to halt offence Russian forces inside Ukraine’s border and send them back over the border, similar to the Gulf War of 1991. At least the Ukrainians have substantial ground forces to resist invading forces, unlike unlucky Kuwait. They would still need extensive air support. A spin-off would be the overthrow of Putin.
I totally agree with your last paragraph Jonathan!
…and if NATO started to make material gains, the Russians would deploy their nuclear arsenal. If you think you can win a nuclear engagement you belong back in the 1950’s.
Do you really believe what you write? This is one of the funniest comments I have read. If the US attack Russia nuclear weapons sites we would have every justification to use our nuclear weapons. Use it or lose it
It’s like he/she/it actually wants WW3…
Making sure you use correct pronouns?
Yes you are correct, obviously I have very different point of view to many here but some comments are just very silly.
I have been away up far north so not had chance to say happy new year to you. I pray nothing happens between our countries and we can continue to talk this year. Peace be with you
No. I had such a surreal, ridiculous exchange on another thread, I am actually wondering if I was talking to a bot, troll, he, she, I have no idea.
Enjoy. Several happy exchanges.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/increased-presence-of-british-surveillance-aircraft-near-ukraine/
Apparently I’m actually a traitor and on your ( Russia’s ) side, for simply believing NATO going to war with Russia over Ukraine, a non NATO country, is not justifiable.
Another useful idiot then says I’m defending a mafia state.
If Russia attacks NATO, then yes, NATO is a defensive alliance and must defend itself against you.
He/she/it has of course headed for the hills ever since I faced up to him on it, as considering how passionately I support the UK military and my nation I consider crap comments like that an insult.
Must be very enjoyable for others reading it, but I won’t back down, and will defend my corner all day. So enjoy!
Silly comments like actually proposing a first strike against Russia’s nuclear stockpile is border insanity. You would retaliate, possibly with the dead hand ( if it exists ) push becomes shove and then it escalates.
It’s all Biden’s fault of course, as he “needs to get a spine”
Thank God Mx is not in charge….
And with you Ulya. I did post a reply explaining my words, but it is awaiting approval.
Good morning Daniele,
You do not need to explain your words, I did understand, I just made poor joke instead so am sorry if I make you feel uncomfortable. My partner being a westerner has unsuccessfully been trying to educate me about this pronoun thing that is happening but I have little interest
No, you have got the “wrong end of the stick” Ulya.
I was not on about pronouns either, but Trolls.
The problem with Russia is that it’s people have always been slaves, to the Czars, the Sovs and now Putin and police state of ex-KGB stooges. It serves autocrats well to focus the people’s minds on nationalist/expansionist dreams or foreign threats, real or imagined (the Argentine Junta had the same policy). The truth is that economically Russia is a minnow. We need to call Putin’s bluff and then move on to the real threat to Western values, China.
Blah blah, west is good, east is bad, western values. The battle cry of those with no self awareness. I love your confidence that you are capable of dealing with both Russia and China. You know where Russia is, you have moved to our borders, feel free to see if we are bluffing
You should be grateful that you are entitled to your opinion here in the West. I doubt that is the case for me in either Russia or China
Precisely again!
“doubt”, why not just use highly likely or any other phase to justify your opinion is just opinion because you are ignorant of the facts?
But just for balance, older generation who grew up under CCCP are generally not comfortable expressing their opinions, my post CCCP generation you can’t make shut up. We even manage to have conversations without calling people trolls
Precisely James, If only Britain had defended the Falklands properly in 1982, we would of saved lives.
The same applies to the Czech Lands in 1938, No WW2!
Yes as it’s always been an international understanding that the nuclear powers would only go after each other’s nuclear deterrents in the case of nuclear war and that to do so is the first step in a nuclear war.
We do have a real problem between Russia and NATO countries around what was traditionally the Russian near abroad and is now very much a set of countries that have become more European.
What is unfortunate is I think both Russia and the western democracies have a common long term geopolitical opponent in China that is a threat to both in the longer term. In reality Russia and western nations have far more common interest than either side would like to admit to.
Calm minds need to get together and agree a road to recovering the relationship while allowing counties like Ukraine to maintain their sovereignty. Or one day we will all wake up into a world with China owning the Russian Far East and both Russia and the west as economic pawns to China.
I agree both Russia and the west have our concern regarding China but we see those concerns differently, from Russia perspective it is possible loss of Siberia, but strong nuclear force and good relationship ‘hopefully’ will be enough to make them understand long term it is cheaper to pay in money than blood, we burn then so do they. From western side you want to maintain western dominance and will happily use Russia land and blood for that. I care nothing about the Wests position. I have no trust the west will operate in good faith or honour any agreement, ABM, INF and open sky’s are gone and NATO troops on our border. This new agreement Putin’s wants will not happen and I do not believe the west will honour it even if signed so I am sorry to say to me there is no chance of cooperation. Russia can work with and have good relationship with individual European countries but not with the EU or NATO and certainly not the US while it wants to try and keep it’s hegemony. For now Europe is nothing more than a gas customer and Russia needs to focus south and east
Yes Ulya it’s a deep and abiding problem. But one I think we need to work on. I agree there is little chance of Western Europe and Russia being close friends in the medium term, but that can change. You have to remember the British and french hated each other with a profound passion for around 500 years, Yet now we just sort of like to poke each other with a good natured stick in the ribs now and then.
My personal view on NATO is that it’s for some reason lost its way ( it probably should have been disbanded at the time and a new mutual aid and defence organisation set up. But Europe does need some form of stability around mutual defence and trade. but I think the mistake was not discussing and bring Russia into that in the 1990s, instead of being Triumphalist and acting like we had won a war the west would have worked with Russia as a partner to decide what the new world order would look like, as Russia is always going to be a power and so needs to be one of the decisions makers around the world order.
As for the EU I think you will find many Europeans are not really happy with the way it’s going, especially the British. The EU should be nothing more than a market place for European nations to trade and keep Euro stable. If that’s all was Britain would have probably stayed in it and I suspect Russia would have seen advantages in the end ( as you say you have stuff to sell Europe).
As for China I think Russia ( and the west, but to a lesser extent) is making a massive geopolitical miscalculation that’s going to bit your nation very hard in around 20 years or so. Modelling around food production shows that China is going to need very significant amounts of food production land so it’s going to be a case or expand or die and we all know where that land is. You can look at why and when Western European’s powers have invaded Russia and it was almost alway when a totalitarian state decided it needed land, that state does not exist in Europe any more but it does exist in China.
I have a lot of respect for Russia culture as I do with most others, I can see what Putin is doing and why . But I honestly believe he’s having to play to a Russian population that have not incorrect absorbed the lessons of history and sees Western Europe as the enemy. But history and geopoliticals move on and we really are not ( the west just messed up the transition from the Cold War ) .
Most see Ukraine and Russia as European states and we have own lessons around large European powers subverting smaller European powers ( I’m talking the U.K. world view here),such things have always dragged the U.K. into major European wars.
I really think Russia and the West need to agree what our stances will be around Ukraine and stabilise the situation. We almost need to turn Ukraine into a completely independent power without any formal ties with either NATO/EU or Russia. Make it a completely independent to hard to crack that can tell both side to sod off ( this is a function the U.K. played in Europe for a long time, no one nation could dominate Europe with The U.K. sitting over it’s coastline ( and Russia preventing any expansion eastward).
it would not be for a long time, but I do hope Russia and Western Europe can get to the place of stability.
Such a interesting reply, thank you Jonathan, I will try to answer as much a possible.
Russia/Europe relation, short and medium term there will be no change, long term it is in both our interests for things to improve based on mutual respect, right now that respect is missing.
China, maybe you are right Russia is making a mistake, but right now we have friendly China and hostile west so it is only logical what direction we look, as for food/resources, I am part owner in 2 farms, 72 and 68% all go to China, we are currently looking to buy more land to expand and finally the government is beginning to understand it’s value and helping financially, mainly so we don’t look to China for loans but a step in right direction, and this is typical across farmer sector. Gas, they are looking at making new pipe for 50bm3 extra, from numbers I have seen we could double that and they will still need more. China is run like a business, no need for hostile takeover when you already have reliable cheep supply. If I am wrong we always have the nuclear option.
Ukraine, I am not the best person to discuss this with, I am not Slav, it is not brother nation and I do not have the emotional connection many Slav have, I just do not want NATO there. We do need to stabilise situation there and I maintain Minsk agreement is starting point but internal Ukraine and US/NATO politics block that so will be interesting to see how things develop with these talks.
Like many westerner you seen to under value Russian population understanding of things, as a rule Russian are very mistrustful of media and government so we look at western media for balance (yes we have access to it despite what many believe), we see for ourselves what is being said and done and make up our minds from that, and while I have many issues with some of Putin’s policy and decisions I do agree with his current attitude towards the west.
I hope I have not missed anything. I has been a pleasure to talk
Cheers for the reply. It’s very interesting what you are saying around where your food exports are going. The science is pretty clear that there is a real economic future for Russia in food production. The warming models suggest that the only way Northern European, Northern area of North America and Northern Asian food production is up ( more sunshine, more rain = longer growing seasons and greater yields = more crops) At the same time food production is going to drop through the floor In the USA, Southern Europe, china, India etc. Which means all that land in Russia is going to be gold end up feeding most of the world.
Gas and fossil fuels are in reality dead ends and will not be major exports in a decade or two.
Fingers crosses those in power will be able to cut through the reactionary voices on all sides and get to a point that Russia can feel secure, the Eastern Europe nations can maintain their independence which is what Western Europe needs for its own feeling of security.
How has NATO lost its way. It has continued to enlarge since the end of the Cold War, Article 5 was called for the first time ever due to 9/11 thus showing relevance in a new era of international terrorism, and it has operated outside its traditional areas.
Hi Graham
I will give you a couple of key examples I think are a real structural problem for NATO.
1) in reality NATO was set up as solution to a single problem and that was to counter a Soviet invasion of Western Europe.
2) Article 5 is essentially pointless in regards to any activity by China as as such makes it now almost a functionally irrelevance for the biggest geopolitical problem faced by western liberal democracies.
3) however we may see it in the west Russia and its people viewed the expansion of NATO into what its classes as it near abroad as aggressive expansionism and a existential threat.
4) There are now countries in NATO that have very little cultural reference or even common purpose with Western European nations and may end up having a war that no other member of NATO wishes to be involved in but would have to either break NATO or fight an inappropriate war, here I’m talking about turkey as that nation it’s now effectively a totalitarian Islamic state.
5) America, the big question here is does anyone honestly believe that the US would be willing to go to war that may include the deaths of millions of Americans and break it as a world power over A)Turkey or B) a very small Eastern European nation.
So these are some of the potential ways NATO could fail:
1) A war between China and a NATO member ( maybe China wants the Falklands in a decade for its access to all the natural resources in the BAT)
2) Turkey pushes someone’s buttons and gets invaded. Do we all go to war to support a totalitarian government or do we dispense NATO ( as we would need to if article 5 was broken)
3) Europe is becoming more nationalist especially the east, let’s say in 5 years time a smalll Eastern European state decides its ethnic Russian population is a national threat and shoves them all in education centres. Russia reacts as Russia would and then do we go to War to support a government undertaking a form of ethic cleansing or do we break NATO
4) America decides its not going to fight for a small European nation that it has no connection to.
5) A major European power decides its not going to bat for a number of NATO members and removes itself ( France did).
All in all I can see to many ways NATO is likely to fail. I think we actually needed to sit down after he Cold War with all partners including Russia and agree what would replace NATO.
For me we needed a number of alliances for differing purposes, this being counter history is all bollox talk but what the hell:
1) Eastern Europe should have been set up with and supported to make its own defence alliance. maker it to strong for either wester Europe or Russia to influence, but not being so strong as to threaten either. So a Poland, Ukraine ect alliance. This would have created a geopolitical balance in Europe between east and west.
2)Mutual defence Alliance for liberal democracies, this would be a values based alliance, of the core liberal democracies.
all in all
Nato was very unwise to involve itself so quickly in any part of the ex Soviet Union. The collapse of multi ethnic empires ( which the USSR was a classic example) always leads to decades of instability and the risk of war. That’s because as these empires break up into nation states they leave large ethnic populations scattered and isolated, this creates lines of tension that need very careful management and historically have lead to a lot of blood spilt. NATO in its hubris over Winning the Cold War got itself entangled in that and turned Russia from a potential friend to a potential enemy.
Now we like to go on about Putin this and Putin that, yes he’s not a very nice man and treats a lot of people badly, but we know that actual most Russians want someone strong to hold their nation together over someone nice but weak. Let’s be honest the majority of very powerful people are not very nice and we deal with all sorts internationally and call some of them friends.
Very interesting. A lot to chew over. On balance, I would rather retain NATO though than opt for some EU equivalent (that several countries, including the UK, could not join) or a new organisation that would have to start from cold in the midst of Russian agitation. NATO has over 70 years of experience and has credibility and well-honed doctrine, governance, procedures, standing headquarters etc.
Oh I agree, we can’t look at changing Nato now, that needed to be done at the end of the Cold War. What we do need to do is think about what other alliances need to be built to start to fill in the gaps and weaknesses of NATO.
First and foremost:
How do we stabilise and ensure Ukraine and other Eastern European nations can be a secure safe independent buffer between Western Europe and Russia. I think this is now coming to a crunch point. I honest think there could be a very strong Eastern European self protection alliance, backed up by some form of nuclear Umbrella from NATO or it’s replacement. The main aim needs to be ensuring eastern block nations are able to defend themselves and choose their own path as well as keep separation between Nato and Russia until some form of normalised relationships comes into being ( this is decades not years).
Second is what are the Western democracies going to do with China. First and foremost we need a joint economic strategy to manage the very successful Mercantile strategy China is using as a pathway to Hegemony. At the same time we need to be creating a global “western democracies” type military alliance that covers protecting all our western interests across the globe, this could effectively be a transformed Nato.
Turkey needs removing from any western based alliance as its government is no longer compatible. We need to look at replacing this with some form of more limited supportive friendship as we have with Saudi etc.
Most importantly we as a nation need to ensure we are able to defend ourselves against any peer aggression both at home and on some of our key world wide assets and close allies.
One other thing to consider is both the high north and Antarctic. At some point the Antarctic treaty will fail, its inevitable as global warming will make it easier to extract the wealth of a Virgin continent. There is no agreement between the western powers on this, for instant the US does not acknowledge the sovereignty of the British Antarctic territory and would be unlikely to support us through present structures to defend it. so we need to be thinking about how we defend our very big south Atlantic and Antarctic gold mine ( we own the best bit).
NATO changed a huge amount at the end of the Cold War – I have always been puzzled by commentators who do not see that and think that NATO lost its way, didn’t change and was stuck in the past.
NATO now includes much of central Europe and Eastern Europe. The only countries that can form a buffer between Russia and NATO are Ukraine and Moldova (forget Belarus as they are pro-Russian). Does your Eastern European self protection alliance just cover these 2 countries or are you suggesting that the eastern European NATO countries leave NATO and join your new alliance?
NATO would only offer its nuclear umbrella to NATO nations, not to a neighbouring alliance.
The China issue is potentially huge. I doubt it is reasonable or possible to challenge or inhibit China’s economic super-growth and rather pushy economic and trade involvement in impoverished African countries and elsewhere. China is also influential in Pakistan and increasingly, Afghanistan and this may challenge the West. It is interesting to propose a remodelled NATO with a truly global role able to militarily operate against China, but I don’t see many Europeans too interested in China’s actual and potential foreign interventions (from dominating South China Sea/Spratly islands to occupying Tibet and wishing to take Taiwan).
It would be very difficult to expel Turkey from NATO or down grade their membership – and may be an own goal – their forces are quite strong and effective – and useful to be on our side.
I think you are right to be concerned about polar conflict and the lack of planning to defend these areas.
A Gasbaged and gaslighted, all-in-one comment!
Just don’t strike a match 💥
You’ve clearly been playing too much “modern warfare”. War is death,desruction and hell for countless numbers of people,present and future and there are no winners.Thankfully the only button you could ever press is on your keyboard.
Hello George, sorry for slow reply, nothing to do with games, simple fact that Russia is a big country with small population, despite all the media hype about Russia military it is small and we do not have reserve army like your territorial soldiers, we have lots of ex soldiers that can be called up but that takes time we probably won’t have. East and West we have 2 blocks that have bigger population, bigger military and more money, our ability to defend against this is limited, so given option of defeat for just us or going nuclear so defeat for all what do you think we will do? There is saying here, translated means “we burn, the world burns with us”.
I’m pretty much sure that every nuclear power has made it clear that a strike against it nuclear deterrent is the equivalent of a nuclear attack and will be responded to in that way.
Its pretty much acknowledged to be definition of a stepping over the big red line and kicking of a war between nuclear powers.
What is happening at present is pretty standard Geopolitics between great powers as they push to understand where the lines are, it’s happened In countries across the globe during the Cold War, nothing is really new.
Its pretty shitty for the county that’s the pawn, but The history of geopolitics teaches one lesson if you cannot defend yourself know one else will. That’s why the U.K. and France must always ensure they have effective nuclear deterrent.
A voice of sanity in a sea of Hawks looking for war.
Speak softly, and carry a big stick. A first strike against another nations “Crown Jewells” in the form of their nuclear arsenal is not speaking softly, its insanity that leads to WW3.
I’ve noticed for some time these Russia/Ukraine articles are often flooded by Hawk type posts.
Neither appeasement or full on confrontation will work in my view. There needs to be a middle ground.
Yep, listen to russia and then get them to listen to us. acknowledge that we can and would destroy each other in an all out war. Draw our red lines and be very clear where they are. Then make sure we have the military capability to enforce our red lines.
Its a mistake to push NATO closer to Russia than it is. Being a member of NATO is not some form of human or sovereign right it’s a mutual defence organisation for the present members and it should not:
1) engage in any form of destabilising expansion ( that’s what empires do).
2) force another world power into war with NATO members as that is counter to its purpose.
I think NATO needs to simply state it will not expand its membership, increase its spending requirements on defence and membership requirements And commitment ( remove dead wood and nations that are no longer really compatible with core NATO members views so Turkey).
Do I think Russia is on the edge of acceptable and pushing very hard….yes, but that’s because we have been giving confusing messages of being hawks one moment and acting like doves the next.
This is insanity. Attacking a Russian nuclear storage facility is enough justification to almost guarantee a nuclear response coming back from Russia.
The U.S. NPR of 2018 has provisions to counter a Russian first use of a nuclear weapon. And looked like classified provisions as well.
The US does not want to embark on WW3 for any reason, let alone in support of Ukraine. American engagement in Europe militarily has only been as a result of western Europe being threatened.
European enlargement, has been supported by the US, and is now threatened.
I thought that Mr Putin would have gone for a Christmas or New Year offensive in the Ukraine so he could get all his pieces in position while we in the West were tripping the light fantastic on Christmas leave. But the fact that he did not seems to say he is having second thoughts or he is looking for a legitimate excuse to kick off. Now he also has Kazakhstan to play with and already they are using words like “foreign backed and trained terrorists” so we could see a clime down in the Ukraine if Russia gets more involved in Kazakhstan or Kazakhstan could be the excuse Putin needs to legitimise his wider campaign. We will see said the blind man to his deaf dog!!!
Launch an offensive? Don’t you mean quell the instability and civil war that has unfortuntely plagued the Eastern Ukraine for far too long, and help protect and give voice to the legitimate concerns of ethnic Russians in Donbass?
I think he’ll wait to take Belarus first, which he’s looking to to do bloodlessly.
“I think he’ll wait to take Belarus first,”
Belarus is a close Putin ally, so no need to “take” it. Pity the population under repression & poverty.
He’s angling for the Union State of Russia and Belarus to become effectively a Russian Fedaration through a popular vote. A close enough union would see Belarus independance swallowed up by Russia.
It is Christmas Day in Russia today, in their old Julian calendar.
But the Russian troops have not been sent home on Christmas leave
It is up to the ordinary Russian squaddies to start complaining of having to comp out in the cold!
“Seems like Russia are slowly taking the Ukraine inch by inch…”
Not happening!
The Russian sponsored mercenaries in Eastern Ukraine have been losing ground there lately, with the Ukrainians being supplied with better warpons, that’s why Russia is threatening to invade.
Hello Jay, The new cold war has already started, and the likes of Belarus and Serbia have always been traditional allies to Russia but I just wonder how strong that friendship will be when the body bags start coming home.
All this sabre rattling over the Ukraine and Russia is it actually going to come to Russia invading? It’s not as if the Ukraine has been sitting idle waiting for the invasion is it? They have had plenty of time to prepare for said eventuality and even IF Russia was daft enough to go ahead the casualty count is going to be very high! Would the people be prepared to except this?
Hopefully we will not have to find out.
Yep hopefully Putin doesn’t want to find out either.
They have already invaded Jacko, but we did not have the balls to do anything about the Crimea and the Eastern states of the Ukraine so I very much doubt we will do anything now apart from stop selling Jonny Walker to the Kremlin
The sanctions are much greater than that.
And Ukraine is still largely intact. Perhaps if ghe entirety of Ukraine is under threat, NATO might enter a war, as if Ukraine falls, some NATO members are going to get incredibly tetchy and demand large increases in military expenditure and deployment.
Hello Tams, and the Crimea ? the Ukraine has lost most of its deep water harbours and ship building areas not to mention the poor excuse to occupy the eastern regions of the Ukraine. I would say it is far from “Largely intact” as you put it.
I do not think the sanction are going to work and as you rightly stated the military expenditure has to increase across Nato but if we had a radical re-think and doubled our defence expenditure over night it would take 10 years at least to make up what we have lost in capability. So our options are extremely limited, lets just hope that the Ukrainians can make a stand and by sending some body bags back to mother Russia convince Mr Putin of the error of this ways.
When you say ‘we did not have the balls to do anything about Crimea and the Eastern states’ who are you referring too – The West/Nato/The EU ? And what do you suggest should have been done to prevent it ?.
Hello Paul, All the above and militarily we can not do much, but the sanctions that are talked of now should have been put in place back in 2014 so by 2022 we would have been talking of getting the Russians out of the the Ukraine altogether and not talking of keeping the status quo with Russia occupying the Crimea for the foreseeable future.
“We will defend democracy in eastern Europe and around the world.”
So we will be on hand to deter & respond to any PRC attempts to invade Taiwan I hope, rather than the usual “not our problem, too far away” some trot out.(Just found how to turn italics off!)
It is vital we stop aggressive tyrannies destabilising free democracies. It was very refreashing & heartening to watch the House of Lords debate on Russian strategic thinking on BBC Parliament. Seems people in government are finally waking up to the very real danger to western democracies by our naive weakness.
Hi frank, we do need to take care with the democracy bit, what about when the majority of a population don’t want a democracy? Or a totalitarian state is proving a stable fair government ?
Im all up for defending our interests and support stable moral governments, just not some Moral crusade to make the world a democracy.
What we should want is good government & reasonable freedom to live our lives. I’ve plenty of criticism for our own “democratic” government where the FPTP system disenfranchises the majority & allows all the shots to be called by a minority, albeit the largest minority, but that’s another debate. Moral crusades are all well & good depending on who’s morality is pursued. The CCP have moral crusades where the only good is wether you endorse the CCP & Chinese culture. Here in the West not everything lauded a progress is going in the right direction. God will judge.
I’m a firm believer in you can only really Police yourself. So as you say keep our own house in order, act responsibly on the international stage and support a very basic set of rules via international agreement and only deal closely ( the carrot) with nations that have a basic set of standards and don’t cross some set moral red lines: not using WMD or mass murder, slavery, having the rule of law ect other than that Nations and populations can be governed as they choose without getting western views shoved at them.
Germany needs to start work on one or more massive LPG terminals – that will concentrate minds in the Kremlin
While being strong and ensuring we are able to defend ourselves we do need to try and understand what drives Russia to behave in this way, Putin is not the communists party with an avowed aim of destroying the west, he’s a traditional Russian strong man leader and is acting that way ( we need to think of him more as a king that a communist party leader).
We must always remember that Russia sees Western Europe as a potential existential threat to its existence. Western European’s powers have generally always been more aggressive and powerful that Russia ( not including the USSR here). History has not been kind to Russia as Western powers have always had a pop at invading Russia regularly for the last couple of centuries, with massive loss of life. Russia was preserved by swapping land and live for time until logistic strain and Russian winters killed the enemy. So they are obsessive about having a set of barrier nations between the proven monsters in the West.
History makes nations the way they are and a good look at Russian history will tell you why they don’t trust the west as far they could throw us ( we just keep on invading them).
Well apart from Napoleon and Hitler who both fell into the same trap of underestimating the Russian winters I would say the opposite is true from your statement, The Rus were originally the Vikings that travelled East and settled in areas we now know as Russia, The word Rus was original given to them by the Arab speaking countries who were plagued by there raids into their territories.
In the WW11 the Russian lost more people under Starlin than they did by apposing Hitler. Then if we look at how the Eastern European countries were treated under the USSR you can understand why most of them do not want to have anything to do with Russia now. Mr Putin is a product of the USSR he was a KGB officer and he is using that training to further his own gains today at the expense of the rest of his country just like the Czars did of old, I just wonder if he will end up the same way as they did.
Bravo. This is my view too. I have tried expressing this opinion and understanding of Russia multiple times, but the hawks on UKDJ don’t like it one bit.
So careful you’re not branded a traitor….
Keep your friends close. And your enemies closer.
First step in that is no way give Ukraine or Georgia NATO membership.
To people remember 1962 and how the US reacted to Russian missiles on its doorstep?
Yes Cuba is a very interesting case study of how the US reacts to a potential existential threat on its doorstep. There is very little difference between the behaviour of the US to Cuba or a number of Central American countries. The US has always been incredible aggressive to any geopolitical threat ( even the U.K.).
We do like to dress ourselves in pretty moral clothes but as I have said a number of time nations do not have morals or ethics. geopolitics is a dance of power and influence where nations use the playbook that works best for them at the time and other nations are only useful for what they give you in return for what you give them ( mutual security in NATO or that ability to access resources and swap wealth and knowledge). I’ve never been one of the wester democracies won the world and it the end of history rubbish that started filtering around at the end of the Cold War. We defend ourselves and work with the nations we can to keep ourselves strong and wealthy, enlightened self interest has always worked for the U.K.
We need to avoid a War. We forget that Poland and Czech only became countries after WW1. Both Germany and the USSR wanted to recolonise them in the 1930s – which they did – leading to a world war. Imagining Ukraine or Georgia as somehow having less rights than any other nation because they were historically occupied by Russia refutes the international order. Should the UK demand that Ireland be not admitted to the EU so we can control it? Or India or Kenya be excluded from the UN? Obviously not.
Your comment is just the same, gaslighting for Putin’s Russia.
I would be dread of serving on the front line with you!
What front line are you talking about ? your world view would have caused a nuclear exchange between the major nuclear powers leading the end of all human civilisation so there would not be a front.
As for your comments as to my willingness to suffer or act for the service of my nation or put myself in danger to protect my colleagues, you can in the nicest possible way “ Piss right off”.
I actual try to understand what is driving the great powers and geopolitical forces, as do thank goodness most of our leaders. I will leave you with this.
“Know thy enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles, you will never be defeated. When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself, your chances of winning or losing are equal. If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself, you are sure to be defeated in every battle.”
“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”
a couple of insights for you to cogitate on.
“…you can in the nicest possible way “ Piss right off.”
The same to You, of one o’mighty of a gasbag gaslighter!!
I think I just pissed myself laughing.
The fact is “Meirion X” or whatever or whoever you are, is that you’ve just been comprehensively taken to the cleaners on a worldwide forum by Jonathan. Intellectually, historically, tactically, strategically, and geopolitically.
And all you can come up with is a piffy P off back. No wonder he is laughing.
I did it on the other thread, challenging your nonsense, that people here with a differing, more balanced opinion are not Russian sympathisers, “Gaslighters”, or whatever you want to call them. But those with a differing point of view. Simple as that. You called me a “Traitor” for my own views, which I find offensive. Traitor? I am near certain you are not British, so calling me out as a traitor to my nation is a bit rich.
And then you ran away when I challenged you to debate. My points are still unanswered. As I said they would be.
Because you have nothing but accusations.
You’re doing it again right now with Jonathan. Debate his points. Dismember them. Give alternative views backed by facts.
But you cannot.
I would say with confidence that you are actually a Troll yourself.
Russian? Chinese? Ukranian? Another? There are a few here.
The reality is you throw accusations about but when challenged have nothing in the tank to take issue with points but come out with “Gaslighter” in return to well written, well thought out, well explained posts like that of Jonathan.
Your reply to Jack on the thread further up was telling to anyone who’s English is their mother tongue. You did not understand what he was saying to you or the meaning.
Marked as a Troll for me until proven otherwise I’m afraid. After all, if YOU can throw accusations about we all can.
If I’m wrong, happy to apologise and move on. Are you?
Well said Daniele, I think the funniest thing is that he called you a traitor, since it’s clear from your posts your a firm supporter of our nation’s histories, values and ensuring our nation is able to defend itself.
We can all have differing views on the right way forward and discuss them, that’s always been a strength of our nation. To be honest I use this forum to test a lot of my thoughts on geopolitics with other views and like getting really well thought out challenges or new information. For instance we have Ulya who gives some really good insight into the Russian viewpoint in a respectful and well thought out way ( But I thinks he’s well underestimated the risk to Russia from china, but our nations are at a different state of relationship with china, 10 years ago our government loved China with a ££ passion).
I do worry for the future of really well thought out policy when on one side of the voting public we have reactionary individuals who brand people with nasty labels if they don’t follow a sort radical western superiority model and on the other side a load of de-platforming addicts who will not even allow you to discus the protection of women’s only toilets or the positive aspects of the British empire without calling you a facist.
“And all you can come up with is a piffy P off back. No wonder he is laughing,”
It was Jonathan who first cell me that Daniele, in his reply to me!
I stated my views further up the thread. What more did you want to know about my view?
I did say P off related to your personal comment about me, I’m happy to debate and discuss all day long, but I don’t take kindly to personal comments about my character, I’m to long in the tooth to tolerate anyone telling me what I am.
Your views are your own, on geopolitics I think your views are probably over aggressive and hawkish, but at present we have no idea which position is “right and which is “ and in all likelihood we will never know, as even when looking at the history of Geopolitics causation is debated and we know what actually happened.
So happy to debate and discuss as long as you don’t label me ( you don’t know me).
The political landscape of Europe has changed, since Russia started pumping gas. They now have their own big stick to belt Countries with. Europe is in a worse position now that ever, regarding what Russia does and does not do.