In response to increased Iranian threats and the growing risk of escalation in the Middle East, the UK Government say that it has been “working with partners across the region to encourage de-escalation and prevent further attacks”.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak condemned Iran’s, pledging the UK would “continue to stand up for Israel’s security”.

“I condemn in the strongest terms the Iranian regime’s reckless attack against Israel. These strikes risk inflaming tensions and destabilising the region. Iran has once again demonstrated that it is intent on sowing chaos in its own backyard. The UK will continue to stand up for Israel’s security and that of all our regional partners, including Jordan and Iraq. Alongside our allies, we are urgently working to stabilise the situation and prevent further escalation. No one wants to see more bloodshed.”

George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison

34 COMMENTS

      • I gave a few links a while back but they were ground launched drones fast and able to survive taking out small drones or expendable against larger ones and even cruise missiles and stored in a smallish container. Clearly till recently the idea of a simple air launched drone for air defence would seem rather Heath Robertson and to many almost laughable, but can’t help but think the idea just might have legs amongst certain thinkers these days, especially if it could take out several per launch. I think sea launched versions would certainly be worth a look. Room for some innovative conceptualising methinks, 300 targets most being attack drones just isn’t feasible to be defended against with expensive missiles and you can see why DragonFire has taken such high a profile and urgency of late, but air based lasers of this nature are years away so air launched drone systems, be they from aircraft or mothership drones may well start to be proposed I reckon, as it could be both flexible and solve range issues in confronting an event like last night.

    • If so I would be very interested to know how they go about it operating from Cyprus. Obviously standing guard and engaging any coming from the Med direction after overflying Syria/Lebanon perhaps is a likely scenario, but wouldn’t think operating across Israel or over Syria sounds very wise considering how easy it might be seen as a bogey.

      • The RAF has been doing Op SHADER (commenced 9/8/14, so nearly 10 years now) against Da’esh (ISIS/IS/ISIL) for many years, launching from RAF Akrotiri. So they already paste Da’esh bases in Iraq (I don’t think they attack their bases in Syria).

        Seems that the RAF boosted SHADER numbers as backfill to allow the USN to commit to shooting down the incoming Iranian missiles/drones. Cameron said this morning that our pilots were told to enagage any drones that came into their airspace whilst on Op SHADER and a very small number did. I don’t know, obvs, where those interceptions occurred.

  1. How many Typhoons does the UK have in Akrotiri? Six, eight? We might want to temporarily up those numbers a bit, as a diplomatic signal if nothing else. Israel’s missile stocks will be depleted, so they will need all the help they can get in the event of a second wave.

    But….I’m not sure we can trust Iran’s claim that it’s attack is over anyway. I don’t think they intended to look so weak by having 99% of their drones/missiles shot down. They might be planning a surprise follow up to save face, if their inventory allows that is. But more likely they’ll look to do something different, given how pathetic their first attempt proved to be.

    I would be surprised if we were being kept up to date with all military movements.

    As for de-escalation, of course no one wants war. But is the alternative a bigger war in the future, when the west is weaker and enemies are stronger? Should the west be taking this opportunity to cut the head off the snake?

    • They are upping those numbers. We have had 9 based at Akrotiri for a long time. And escalating the situation isn’t always the answer as past conflicts have taught us.

      • I’m not suggesting it definitely is either. I’m just positing the question.
        What happens now if we de-escalate? Iran re-stocks its drones and missiles, upgrades them based on this experience, and launches a larger and more effective attack next time?

        A well planned attack could also disrupt Iranian drone supply lines to Russia, which is straining western abilities to provide sufficient air defences to Ukraine.

        • I think the PTB know that Benny can reduce Iran to a sheet of glass within a few hours. And would with no hesitation if provoked too far. Iran was posturing yesterday. A good response would be to flatten one target, preferably a weapons production facility or oil infrastructure. Then the pro Hamas tools that post on here about “genocide” could have a real whinge.

          • I don’t think mass innocent deaths are quite so worthy of being seen in such insignificant or trivial language, or would we celebrate simply on the basis of personal benefit for example if Putin’s murderous tactics were in our interest. Even if one looks at it purely without emotion mass killings are only going to create the fervour for revenge that will potentially come back on us and potentially lead to WW3 when these Countries or even stateless movements may well acquire nuclear weapons, so perhaps better to keep a cool head and judge your actions on something less than stepping up to mutual self destruction.

        • And they will come back with an even bigger strike if we hit them hard. The US already carried out strikes just the other week. You need cool heads and diplomacy. More strikes are not the answer to everything. Even Russia is calling for cool heads.

    • Israel has been expecting such an attack for years and have planned for it,they should have plenty of stocks ready if needed.UK Forces are mere bystanders,we can contribute how and where HMG sees fit,no-one expects us to be fully involved.

    • I’m sure internally they aren’t claiming only 1% hit their targets much of the population probably think Israel is up in flames.

    • Virtually no ground based air defence at all for all of UK. None at all in Cyprus. Not even any available frigate to post offshore. Welcome to the world of chickens coming home to roost, Somebody needs to shout at our Prime Minister till he cries.

      • A SAMP-T NG battery, like the one Italy has just ordered, would be a good choice for the UK, but Jeremy will just blow the money on some soundbite gimmick instead.

        • Not enough CAMM have been deployed yet and non for base type GBAD from what we were told on previous posts. Is the UK exploring an Iron Dome type launcher with ASRAAM, CAMM, Starstreak or LMM ER type interceptors? Or NASAM?

          • Risk is increasing speed is required. What we don’t need s 5 years of MOD navel gazing and treasury truculence as we run competitions and research programmes. We can solve a lot of these issues simply by expanding the Sky Sabre programme. I’d immediately fund the purchase of a Sky Sabre battery for each our 3 Fast Jet air bases plus Brize Norton in the UK and additional battery for Akrotiri. I’d also give them over to the RAF to operate. They’d be better able to integrate these systems into overall air defence.
            This is a simple problem to solve it just requires funding.
            An immediate mitigation to the threat of Hezbollah in Lebanon to Cyprus would be to forward deploy one of the army’s few Sky Sabre batteries to Akrotiri or somehow find the resources to man a Type 23 and stick it off the East coast of Cyprus to act as a goalkeeper.
            The lack of action to this glaring vulnerability in our defences tell you everything we need to know about the obvious cognitive dysfunction in Downing Street. These guys don’t make rational decisions and are simply just not fit for their roles.

          • I was thinking more of long term operation of future batteries. Obviously the RAF doesn’t operate SAMs now but the defence of airfields and integration into radar and surveillance would sit better with them. Air defence is their space. Better let them own it.

          • As you probably know the RAF Regt used to provide AD for airfields, then handed over this role to the RA. Not sure why!

            Ground Based Air Defence (GBAD) is solely the army’s responsibility.

      • There are multiple bad actors in the region which have the capability of hitting Cyprus with both missiles and drones. There are multiple undefended targets on the island of Cyprus. Escalation path is simple. Israel retaliates against Iran and hurts them to such a degree they feel the need to respond. That response includes interdicting oil supplies coming out of the Gulf. The West retaliates with air strikes against Iran. Iran retaliates to Western Air strikes by targeting Western Military installations in Iraq, Syria and Cyprus. Brits die and Sunak says don’t worry about it because he’s spent the 2% min on Defence so he cant possibly be to blame.

  2. There comes a point beyond which constantly talking about ‘de-escalation’ only serves to call one’s resolve into question and so undermine deterrence.

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