Challenger 2 tanks and armoured vehicles of the Royal Welsh battlegroup have arrived in Estonia, with further equipment and around 1000 troops arriving over the coming days, according to the Ministry of Defence.

This will lead to a doubling of the UK presence in Estonia, where the UK leads a NATO battlegroup as part of the Alliance’s enhanced Forward Presence.

Additionally, the Ministry of Defence say, RAF Typhoon fighter jets have already completed their first air policing missions across the region, with an additional four aircraft based at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus.

“Typhoons flying from bases in Cyprus and the UK are now patrolling NATO airspace over Romania and Poland alongside NATO allies with Voyager air-to-air refuelling aircraft in support.”

Britain to increase fighter jet presence in Poland and Romania

Britain is moving army battlegroups, Apache attack helicopters, fighter jets and warships to Eastern Europe due to tensions with Russia. According to a statement:

  • The UK is doubling the number of personnel in Estonia and sending additional equipment, including tanks and armoured fighting vehicles. These troops and equipment will begin to move to Estonia today. 
  • The Royal Welsh battlegroup, which includes armoured vehicles and personnel, will leave Sennelager in Germany and bases in the UK and begin to arrive in Estonia during the coming week.
  • Apache helicopters will soon be making their way to conduct exercises with our Allies and partners in Eastern Europe.
  • Four additional UK Typhoon jets have also landed in Cyprus and will shortly begin to patrol the skies with NATO Allies in Eastern Europe.
  • HMS Trent – a UK Warship – has already begun conducting patrols in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea alongside NATO Allies from Canada, Italy, Spain and Turkey.
  • HMS Diamond is preparing to set sail in the coming days for the Eastern Mediterranean and will join up with NATO allies.

British military reinforcing Eastern Europe amid Russian tensions

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace MP said:

“Our armed forces are once again being called upon in the service of our Nation and I salute the bravery and sense of duty shared by all our personnel who have been deployed to support NATO. Alongside our NATO Allies, these deployments constitute a credible deterrent to stop Russian aggression threatening the territorial sovereignty of member states.”

At a meeting of NATO Heads of State and government yesterday (25 February), all 30 member nations agreed that:

“We will make all deployments necessary to ensure strong and credible deterrence and defence across the Alliance, now and in the future. Our measures are and remain preventive, proportionate and non-escalatory.”

George Allison
George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
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455 COMMENTS

  1. The nerve of our politicians to knowingly underfund the army and sending our boys potentially to fight and die with sub-par equipment.

    • Hi Levi,

      Yeh, really winds me up. I hope they are know realising that just how few troops and tanks, etc. we have.

      James Heappey was on BBC Point West last night and seemed to suggest that it would take 20 years to ‘win’ the military competition with Russia. I took that to mean that perhaps we are looking at rebuilding our military capability. Twenty years would be a reasonable time given the awful position we are in. We have neglected not only our miliatry, put our military industrial based as well. Seriously stupid on behalf of our pathetic leadership (all parties just to be clear 🙂 )

      Cheers CR

      • Well said gents.
        24 tanks out of just under 200! Tanks that are out dated. Equipment that we cant afford to use? But its called the peace dividend!!

      • Hi Robert,

        Not those equipments so much, although Chally 2 is 25 years old. However, Warrior is in need of update and the Royal Welsh battlegroup is also using the Boxer which is an updated FV432 – nearly 60 years old, not to mention AS90..!

        Typhoon and Apache will go some way to making up for some or our armoured vehicle short falls, but we need to address those short falls with some urgency – CV90 looks pretty good for a Warrior…

        Cheers CR

      • Hi Robert.

        I agree with what you are saying wholeheartedly – C2, Typhoon and Apache are excellent. The problem is paltry numbers we have to the point that what we have wouldn’t bother the Russians too much.

        I read once before that the entire British Army would last less than a week against the Russians. Sobering….

        • From what we have seen from the Russians over the last few days, I think the British Army would wipe the floor with them. But i agree, our numbers have dropped to low.

          • So far we have only seen the advance scouts in action, the main force doesn’t appear to have yet been deployed. There is a lot of talk of its first attack happening tonight, but we will see.

          • Intelligence estimates are 30% of the Russian buildup was deployed in the first two days, and that has now passed 50% on the third day but its primarily combat units, a lot of their logistics remain undeployed which is causing them issues. I would argue that the roads have been a major limiting factor as expected and they have used helicopter borne troops and paratroopers for most of their rapid pushes. The snowfall in the east over the last few days has probably allowed the throttling up of troop movements, compared to Chernobyl area where it hasnt. That said where the Russian have come up against the regular Ukranian army their progress has been almost non-existent and the push on Kiev has been achieved precislely because the forces in that area were weak, primarily national guard and volunteer units.

          • Thank you for the update Watcherzero, do we know if Russia is pulling up more forces to the area? I’ve read there are 10,000 additional forces coming from Chechnya.

          • 10,000 Chechen National Guard allegedly included in the buildup, Chechens were in the (2nd, 3rd? wave to move on Kiev) suffered 70 casualties in a single bombing raid including their deputy commander then hightailed it out of Ukraine. Latest estimate is now 66% of pre-positioned troops have entered the country however 20% of the buildup is unusable due to not being in a running condition with the stuff that the Russians claimed were being pulled back after the exercise being those vehicles that were broken beyond field repair.

          • That reads like relatively good news, if the Ukrainians can continue to hold out, Russian forces could be wearing down.

          • On twitter multiple video accounts of Russian tanks running out fuel and are stranded , that I cant get my head round.

          • I saw that, initially I put it down to fake news, but there seems to be so many examples that I’m starting to believe it is true.

          • I suspect he is banking on inventory of Javelins and NLAW etc to be exhausted before committing his main forces.

          • The issue as others have stated is volume and will add, depth of inventory such as Brimstone etc that makes Typhoon so effective. Spread too thin over such a vast area.

        • But even in the Cold War, NATO units prepared logistics for a six plus two strategy in which there would be six days of fighting at full strength and two at a reduced strength.

        • It was the British Army of the Rhine (BAOR) that was expected to have the life expectancy of a week. Their job was to hold up the Warpac mechanized assaults long enough for NATO’s reserves to get forward. The Army in the UK was seen as this reserve along with French and Spanish elements. These three combined would form the units to fill the gaps. Again it was hoped that they’d last long enough for the lead elements of US and Canadian troops to get across the Atlantic.

          The issue with the Chally is that it used to be much more capable than the T72s and T80s, in both long range targeting and fire power. Along with substantially better armour. The Chally was designed to take out large numbers before letting these tanks get in range where they could damage the Chally.

          Today, Russia has the T90, which is really an updated T72. The latest variant uses the new gun from the T14 Armata. This gun and its ammo has the potential to knock out a Chally at longer ranges than before. They also use optics that are similar to those used on the French Leclerc which are better than those currently fitted to the Chally, as France sold them the better optics. It uses a questionable passive protection system, but the latest explosive reactive armour (ERA). This could be a serious problem for the Chally’s APFSDS (Fin) rounds, as they’re much shorter than those used on the Rheinmettal smoothbore guns. Therefore, there may not be enough of the Fin round left to penetrate all the way through the passive armour.

          However, once ERA has been activated it can’t be used again and leaves a weak spot. The Chally’s 120mm L30A1 rifled cannon is famously accurate, so much so, at 1500m it can pretty much put a Fin round through the same hole. But will mean the gunner taking longer to take the shot!

          If the Chally had the Rheinmettal RH120 L55 as per the Leopard 2. It uses much longer rods in the Fin rounds. These are designed to overcome the newest ERA and the tank’s passive armour. Therefore keeping the Chally ahead firepower wise. The option of fitting the Chally with the smoothbore cannon was shelved 10 years ago, due to needing a new turret and therefore costing too much! Now it may be too late, as it will takes years to build the new turrets and get them fitted to the fleet.

          • Really interesting read. Thankyou. Even with the shorter APFSDS round I doubt a T-90 would be happy being hit by one. The French optics! What a surprise….sold China Crotale missiles too…….

          • The T-90M Proryv-3 (which means “breakthrough”) has had the Armata’s gun fitted in place of the normal 2A46. It was reported that the Russian Army wanted the Armata’s 2A82-1M fitted to rest of the fleet, as it has a much greater muzzle velocity than the 2A46. But I believe it needs a longer turret as used on the Proryv-3.

          • Yes and then let the Chinese (through hacking of Naval Group servers) get access to latest Suffren/ Barricuda class sub designs. You really couldnt make it up. Result. Warships IFR reported a new AIP compact sub that was seen by satellite after launch in one of Chinese river estuary. It looked exactly like a shrunken Barricuda and no doubt was built rapidly as a yechnology testing mule before China enters serial production on a full sized version. Thanks France youve just advanced Chinese submarine technology by 2 generations and endangered one of our few areas where the West was technologically far in advance of China.
            You really couldnt make it up. One of the reasons Australia went AUKUS was because they knew their submarine designs had been hacked.

          • The updates you talk about on the t90 have only been done on very few tanks and I’m pretty sure none of them have been fitted with the t14 gun

        • It was much the same in the Cold War days. BAOR and its reinforcements from the UK would have been lucky to last a week back then before having to revert to tactical nukes or full scale Armageddon.

        • British Army might not but RAF and Royal Navy would beat the shit out of their Russian counterparts even with smaller numbers.

        • Hi David your statement on survivability of the Army, When I started my time in the forces we were given a sobering lecture by people in the Know if the cold War had or could of gone Hot their hypothesis for the forces was The RAF 24/48hrs The NAVY 7 days The ARMY indefinitely if Resupply was possible made us sit up and listen but someone asked who would resupply the ARMY .Shoulders were shrugged make of that what you will But that’s what we were briefed on ,quite sobering that was the 70ts

        • Who is seriously thinking that the British Army alone could be ranged against the entire Russian Army? What are they smoking? Have they not heard of NATO.

          • Just do what I do whenever you start to read that nonsense scroll down. Nothing you say will get them to change subject.

      • 👍

        I think the kit is better than anything the Russian Armed Forces can field. And in this case I would also point out that the British are known for being excessively well trained and ridiculously professional.

        Just need more of everything.

      • Apparently so, I’m sure challenger 3, boxer and Ajax are also sub par and totally incapable of taking on those supper hi tech T72 and BMP’s we keep seeing rolling in to Ukraine.

        • Unfortunately, challenger 3 is a future upgrade…. The upgrade contract was only signed middle of last year, so unfortunately our boys and girls will be using equipment, that is arguably inferior in some respects to the latest Russian standard tanks….

          • I’m reference to the Russian T14 tanks widely deployed in power point and YouTube maybe. However the vast hoard of T72 and T80 with deck chairs welded on their turrets currently on CNN crossing the Ukrainian broader is a different story. C2 has a better proven track record than any other tank against T72 as well as Russian shoulder launched ATGM.

    • At the moment the kit the lads have in Estonia is as good as most others. The Chally is still an impressive MBT, the Warrior, 30mm good enough (for now) and the AS90 adequate.The RE kit is on par with the rest of NATO, as is the AD (notice im ignoring the 432s). Biggest issue we have is as ever numbers and depth. We as ever will fight with out Allies next to us, and all nations will maximise their strengths and mitigate their weakeness through teamwork, training, TTPs and experience. Although we are lacking in certain areas, for any sort of larger deployment (Depth fire for one) we need to be looking at what we have and says thats the baseline, we cannot go lower and we need to be moving onwards, upwards in kit, manpower and numbers. Cheers mate..

      • A miltary defeat and were all gone. Seems that the only objective you have John is ti get rid of Johnson Strange

    • That’s what happens when people elect liberal candidates that put their liberal social agenda ahead of the national security of their country. Same thing is happening in America. People seem to want Britain and America to become more like France. Ugh

      • Dan for FS we are all liberals..we live in western liberal democracies ( it’s in the bleeding title mate.

        Liberal = denoting a political and social philosophy that promotes individual rights, civil liberties, democracy, and free enterprise.

        Stop using the word liberal as a slur, it means your either a communist, facist, feudalist or support the idea of a theocracy…. which one is it ? you supporter of totalitarianism you.

        • Exactly, we have been liberals since the English Civil War. The difference since the later Glorious Revolution has been liberal or more liberal.

          • When we had BAOR, we also had pensions, roads and schools. Perhaps the benefits bill was a bit lower in those days.

        • Yes and its fashionable in America to accuse far left democrats as \liberals
          Allways thought it a strange assertion however must add that the tag of being a LIberal has been highjacked by left leaning Politicians
          Further, Liberals have adopted Green Policies and some other hobby Horses of the tree hgging variety

          • Yes agree those into identify politics on both side, have highjacked liberal for their own ends, the right as a slur and the left as their banner. When if you believe in democracy and the rule of law, personal freedom etc your liberal.

    • Could the British Army do with newer kit, the answer is yes. Has the RN and RAF in the last 20 years invested in lots of new peer comparable kit, also yes. Is Russia fielding some new kit but also substantial numbers of Cold War equipment, again yes. What we need is numbers and a proper increase in defence spending across NATO and unequivocal commitment to Article 5 and forward deployment of forces in eastern NATO countries.

    • The nerve of our politicians to knowingly underfund the army

      I am sorry but the Army put themselves in this too. Where is FRES?

      • FRES failed as French, German and American wheeled vehicles tested were not air portable, strangely we are now getting the German Boxer which did perform the best in Bovington trials lol

      • The politicians and the Treasury got scared at the size of the programme (which followed on from FLAV and FFLAV) and killed it off except for Ajax, thus releasing £5bn to go to CV(F). Lucky Navy!

    • I get the feeling now defence budget will increase. As well as of course Tory MPs, I have heard labour MPs and even Ian Blackford (SNP) stating that appropriate money needs to be spend to meet the threat. Who would have thought? May put a real dent in the SNP independence dream too….

      • The Labour Shadow Defence guy has already called for the latest cuts to the forces to be reversed. So has the Lib Democrats leader and the SNP’s Westminster leader.

        On the Tory side, Tobias Eĺlwood, Tom Tughendat and Ian Duncan-Smith have all said force levels are too low. Dannatt also, who has queried the tilt to Asia and the maritime strategy. Robert Buckley, until recently a Government Minister, asked if the IDR would now be revisited.

        There seems to be some recognition that the Global Britain strategy and the defence cuts are both erroneous.

        It was notable though that, in three defence questions at PMQs, Boris replied to part of the question, but made no response, no comment on the issue of the defence cuts or revisiting the IDR. Most unusual for him not to pick up the points and at least give some response.

        Maybe he’s sent the Whips round to lean on those bold enough to question the IDR.

      • Bots himself said to the CSDC that the days of Russian tanks rolling over european plains are gone. Perhaps not Boris, perhaps not so much has changed at all. It must be reviewed.

  2. Our failure to properly resource defence expenditure in both hardware and personnel over the last 30 years or so is now coming home to roost. Hopefully what we have won’t be needed.

    • I entirely sympathize with what you say Levi and Kevvo but at least we are making a real effort which is more than can be said of some.

      • Yes and no. Germany is still in a post war mindset and struggles to imagine its self as a military power and leader. France and the UK so still have these aspirations, I don’t think Spain or Italy do.

        The problem is not our funding, it is that our funding doesn’t match out aspirations. We are all beating ourselves up because we know we are leaders and not supporters, our history shows that, but our funding has been insufficient to fulfil this role. Ukraine is not a strategic nation for the USA but it is Europe’s backyard. So we should have been taking the lead on deterring Russian aggression in Ukraine along with France and the EU but our militaries are so underfunded for this purpose we are totally dependent on the USA, which doesn’t really have a dog in this fight.

        Our effort is perfectly ok for a supporting partner but for a nation that sees it somewhat as a bastion of European stability and security it is not enough.

        In my opinion we need to double funding over a 15yr period or else resign ourselves to a bit role in global security but given our relationships with commonwealth nations I think that would be a bitter pill to swallow for us.

      • Agreed Germany blocked Ukraine joining NATO years ago and refused to allow Latvia to donate old ex East German Howitzers to Ukraine when Russian build up begun. Disgraceful behaviour.

        • Where is that information – I did ask about this a day or two ago – I would be interested to see the details you have identified- cheers

        • Totally agree. 5000 helmets was what Germany offered up to today, little more than a bad joke. Now they are saying they will supply weapon systems to Ukraine 4 days into an unwinnable war. Just how and where are they going to supply these weapons. Russia has air superiority and have just about captured all the strategic targets. Just about 4weeks too late Germany.

          • Actually Russia doesn’t have air superiority the air space is contested due to manpads they lost another 2 cargo planes loaded with paras

        • Can’t have Ukraine exploiting their gas and oil reserves and turning off the Russian pipeline, would cut off the donations and bribes !

      • I can’t help thinking that decision will be reversed before it happens, or at least should be but with policticans you never know how they will act.

        • Seems likely. Germany just injected a hundred billion euros into its military which seems insane. For the UK there will surely be increases in defence spending after this.

          • That is one large injection, although it appears to include the existing budget, so not totally new money. Will be interesting to see what they spend it on.

          • They spent $52b last year in dollars, the increase is $112b, so even if it included the existing money, that’s doubling the amount, if new its tripling, that’s major.

            In comparison the UK is $59b, so they will significantly overtake our expenditure.

          • That sounds exactly like a ward I worked on many years ago….we actually had to go around and prod the ceiling tiles to make sure they were not so saturated in seagull poo water that they would collapse on the patients ( these were haematology patients with shot away immune systems).

          • It wasn’t Stanley hospital by any chance johnathan in 83 back down there had too have an xray hospital roof covered in Gull poo went back down in 87 Hospital roof was a light blue colour apparently the gulls wouldn’t crap on it as they don’t seem to drop poo on the sea only land so the hospital installed a blue coloured roof Job done

          • Hi Tommo, I’m a bit of a young whipper snapper and only left school in 87. The poo sodden ceiling was in 97 at a hospital that will remain nameless in the south east of the country, by the sea. I know for a fact it still has the same seagull poo ridden roof that leaks as I have mates that still work there.

          • Oh well it was just a maybe but if the roof is still like that they should take a look at Stanley’s roof for ideas

      • The problem is the Army has cut the support for the Tanks we have to the bone never mind more but hey it’s kept the Infantry’s cap badges and the berths for all those Lieut Colonels.

  4. Would be nice to have some track mounted Brimstone launchers. A quick, easy and very punchy addition to go some way in making up for the lack of our tank numbers. For what its worth, I still think a Challenger 2 is a top notch bit of kit despite the lack of recent updates.
    Have we seen evidence of the thousands of tanks the Russians have massed by the border being used yet?
    AA

    • The armor has been used, particularly in the Cherniv and Kharkiv fronts. A lot of armour has also been flowing in from Belarus through Chernobyl but road capacity has limited the speed of advance so they are only now reaching Kiev and too late to help the airborne forces who were pretty much wiped out and unable to secure the airfields enough for reinforcements to be landed for a lightning push before the armour turned up anyway.

      • Thanks, was my suspicion. Airborne troops sent in to secure the airfields to allow more troops, supplies and armour to be flown in. But failing to do so and the ground armour taking too long to reach them to relieve them.

        The damage this campaign is doing to the Russian Army could take them decades to recover from.

    • No, not yet. Though on Belarus’s border with Poland, both the Russians and Belarus are building up a substantial number of forces. These seemed to have moved away from the Ukrainian border and are now facing West.

  6. Videos on BBC News showing stranded Russian tanks that have run out of fuel. One civilian offers to tow them back to Russia 😄👍

    • And the crazy thing is, there doesnt seem to be any hostility or malice between the civvy and the Russkie toms. Does show that maybe Putin has seriously underestimated the collective history and fellowship between the average Ukranian and Russkie.

      • Hard to know if it’s just propaganda or not, but there are plenty of reports of captured Russian soldiers being mystified by their own army’s actions. I guess most of them have absolutely no desire to be there or do any more violence than they’re ordered to

        • Could be so mate, its a bit like the Turkish Coup attempt where it would seem the vast majority of those lower in the chain of command had no frigging clue what they were expected to be doing, like rabbits in headlights, no real mission or task, no plan, and indeed many were sacrificial lambs. And they were the ones to suffer afterwards. Alas that is another subject, I will stay on topics, cheers.

      • I think he has made a huge mistake. He may well take Ukraine in the coming day’s and week’s, but he will be far weaker for it. And the Russian economy will be in a very bad way. And the Russian military is demonstrating its lack of organisation, experience, and the weakness of it’s technology. And they are fighting literally on their own door step. And it doesn’t look like the Chinese are coming over the hill to save Putins arse. All this talk about hypersonic this and that, and they can’t even set up a reliable logistics chain to supply fuel. The Russians haven’t changed one bit since the end of the Cold War, they just lie about everything.

        • Rob that just about sums it up. They may have a bit of new tech, but its back to to the way its always been played, fearfull commanders doing what they are told, not what they think, with SNCOs who are only SCNOS as they have stayed on for a few years after conscription, and toms who are still as shite as they have ever been. Yes they are moving towards, and have been for some time, a more professional “volunteer” military, but if this is the best they can do, then “Pukins” days surely have to be numbered?

          • Exactly mate. And it boils my piss when too many who use this site make them out to be some sort of golden bullet, and everything British must be shite. Despite being too low on numbers. The British Armed Force’s are extremely well trained, organised, and experienced. And in many areas, very well equipped, so we can plug and play with the Americans. And full of talented, educated people who want to be part of it. With real-world global experience. It’s worth its weight in gold.

          • Be far Robert some of the stuff we have made was a bit shite ( glued on bolt heads anyone) but then we also make some terrifying good stuff ( probably the best SSN in the world, which is the most advance type of conventional war fighting kit anywhere). So very good in some areas, pretty good all around with very occasional levels of amazing comedy level shiteness.

          • Agree with Astute. Nuclear subs technically, are the most advanced and complex machines ever made by mankind.

          • 👍

            Spot on x2 Robert!

            Ah the much vaunted Russian Army..! Its been completely reformed in the last 10 years don’t you know, they don’t use conscripts any more (only in the kitchen to peel spuds and clean the bogs), they are now a professional army with “contractors” (i.e conscripts who have signed on an extra year for better pay and rations). Seems to me to be much the same BS people used to say about the Red Army in the cold war. Fancy helmets and nice camouflage gear does not a professional army make. I think Gorbochev realised the game was up with the outstanding performance of allied forces in Desert Storm against what was essentially a Soviet docterine Army. He could never hope to compete. I am starting to wonder if Oleg and his chums in the Russian top brass might have been pulling Putin’s plonker over the last few years… hope so.

          • The British Armed Forces are no matter what, thoroughly professional in nature. A professionalism that’s been honed and refined over hundreds of years of practical experience.
            There’s simply no comparison in quality. Though admittedly the Russians have the numbers advantage.

          • I think he has f**ked up big style. The World is seeing how poorly the famed Russian Army are performing against a significantly smaller force. There is no doubt that they will push to the Dneiper River and form the land corridor to the Crimea. They will probably take Kyiv, but likely to flatten it in doing so. But it’s not going to take 5 days as they predicted.

            Putin’s main backer is China, who have been ramping up their own military capability to be on par with the USA. I think they are probably ahead of Russia in terms of modern tech, but behind due to a lack of experience. However, I think they will be emboldened with the lack of direct force by the West to counter Russia’s move. So there maybe a bit of argy bargy around Taiwan to see how the US react. But I’m sure they’ll be looking at the resource rich parts of Russia that border China and thinking….!

          • If the West is able to sit back and just inflict harm on Russia through economic sanctions and arming the Ukrainians so that they grind them to a standstill, it might actually make China think twice.
            Do the Chinese really think they’d do any better, and with a massive amphibious and airborne assault required for Taiwan?

          • Totally agree with that.

            This hasn’t gone brilliantly and the Taiwanese have modern western kit including a decent airforce.

        • The performance of the Russian military and the invasion plans have been puzzling, to say the least. It almost seems like they are trying a western military style, precision strike strategy in order not to alienate the local population. It doesn’t seem to be working as planned but I will caution that they have only committed a small portion of all the assets they have amassed and we’re still only a few days into this. I think its only a matter of time before they return to their favored, scorched earth way of combat.

          • Yes you have to remember there are still a good number of ethnic Russians in the population and they are all Slavic people, so he’s looking to take down the government with minimal infrastructure damage he wants an intact county he came put a figure head in charge of, not a shattered remanent.

          • Agreed. I really don’t think it’s going to plan and it’s only a matter of time before he grows impatient and flattens the whole place and somehow blames it on the west.

            Right now, I imagine the border between UKR and Poland should be the busiest place on earth as NATO should be flooding it with every manpad and anti tank weapon they can get their hands on.

          • Yes you would hope, they need to be setting up logistic lines from every European country. Ukraine wants to fight and live as a free nation we need to have a literal war level logging line into the county. If they can keep bogging down the Russian army, they will need everything logistic support as their war reserve will start to run down. We should also think about moving any hardware that is in eastern nato nations that the Ukraine armed forces are use to using, they all have old Soviet equipment they are use to using.

          • Puzzling I agree but whoever’s doctrine you are trying to adopt the primary importance of logistics has been recognised to all military commanders since the dawn of time. I doubt they are holding supply assets in reserve, so reports of fuel and food shortages in the Russian invasion force strikes me as either gross incompetence or that the guys have been selling it off on the q.t. to make a few rubles (as they were reported to be doing by the locals in Belarus). Or perhaps they have adopted a JIT strategy and got that wrong too?

            “Forget logistics and you lose.” Lt. Gen Frederick Franks, Commander US 7th Corps, Desert Storm

          • That might be why they’re keeping so many of there troops {1/2} out of the fight. If they can’t supply what they’ve already committed what would be the point of committing more.

          • I have to be honest and say I’m at a complete loss as to why they would have a logistics issue in a country right next door. Something is going on that we’re not aware of as yet and I do fear that Putin, in a panic to maintain his strong man image might escalate this invasion to a truly frightening level. it also makes me think that the oligarchs are looking at their finances and thinking “we might need to do something about this guy”

          • The logistics are carp.

            We’re they depending in filling up their T72’s at the motorway services?

            It has a slightly jokerish feel about it.

            The worrying thing is what does Vlad do in escalation when the war gets bogged down, next week, and he can’t use air power due to the Stingers?

        • I think/both China and Russia may have slapped down their hands too early and give the west the existential scare it needed to realise at a gut level that these nations are the enemy of the west and we need to start acting like it and not sit around the fire singing happy songs of world love and shared profit. I hope the west now really changes its attitude to China and our dependence on it as well as develop 5, 10 and 20 yr re-arming plans ( proper Cold War warrior RR style). It’s the only way we will prevent a general war.

          I think China and Russia having the summit on the 4th of the month clearly showed china knew what Putin was doing and it still signed a new strategic understanding, knowing what was going to happen ( infact, they must have offers support to mitigate sanctions) that and chinas statements after the invasion have shown in stark relief the Geopolitical shift to a biopolar world.

          But I think they may have woken the west up to early, when we actually new the game was being played we hammered the USSR in the long game and I think we can do it again, as long as we are willing to play.

        • I agree with the wider thrust of your point mate.
          What concerns me is that, from reports, they’ve not used much of their heavier fires yet.
          The Kyiv op is still Spetznatz and airborne I believe.
          That may well be Putin not wanting massive civilian casualties and flattening districts, seeming as he says they are all one people and this is against the “regime”
          Twitter post earlier showed Thermobaric launcher being brought up near Belgorod. Different kettle of fish then it could get very nasty.
          Let’s not underestimate them.
          I hope the Ukrainians have learned well from NATO and are ready to turn the urban areas into armoured death traps with their AT.

          • Balanced view as always pal. I think it’s a matter of when not if he takes the country. But I do believe he will be far weaker for it in the long run 👍

          • Putin will have major issues in both his army and at home if he starts inflicting large numbers of casualties in the Ukraine. Many Russians have a relative, or in-laws, ancestors or friends from the Ukraine. It would almost be as bad as him flattening a Russian city.

        • I agree I think the Russian military is a basket case. Lets see. In theory they should surround Kiev by day 5 to 7 and start pressing in. Most forecast are that Ukraine’s military resistance will run out of steam around 1 week into high intensity combat. But lets see. They have no shortage of reserves and volunteers.
          Attrition in manpower wont be a ukranian problem. Attrition in heavy weapons and armoured vehicles maybe. Lets hope they can continue to hold out and our rushed NALWs and Javelins can even up the fight.

          • All they need are ambush style tactics and to keep picking off tanks and APC’s once you get over a certain % attrition none of the Russians will want to be in them.

        • China is waiting in the wind for the Russian economy to be hugely isolated then they will start buying resources such as oil and gas plus natural minerals etc at massively reduced prices in order to bump up the Russian economy.

          Wouldnt even be surprised if they demand some territory to be handed over for ‘farming’ aswell.

      • Unfortunately Airborne, that will change. When civilians start lobbing petrol bombs and sniping from bedroom windows, mutual hate will kick in and the tit for tad retaliation will spark an ingrained and brutal insurgency…..

        Equipped from the west, it’s going to be a festering sore for Russia that simply cannot be stamped out.

        I think Putin had made a monumental mistake that could end up bringing down his regime.

        The spirit of the fearless Cossacks is still strong, they are certainly a very impressive people from what we have witnessed so far.

        • As is always the way! Once it becomes an insurgency type operation it becomes really down and dirty! Sad times for all concerned mate!

      • mmm so it seems. Pretty fundamental that. Perhaps these things are not on the curriculum at Russian Sandhurst?

        “The line between disorder and order lies in logistics…” Sun Tzu, The Art of War

        “My logisticians are a humorless lot … they know if my campaign fails, they are the first ones I will slay.” Alexander

      • Ye I have comment on this thread already that looking on twitter there are many video accounts of Russian armor running out of fuel , also seen big logistic Columns wiped out.

        • Why fight the tanks when you can let them barrel on past and take out the following logistic columns that they depend on.
          Classic defence in depth.

    • 😂😂😂

      As my old dad used to say – not so much Vladamir Putin’s Army more like Fred Karno’s Army!! 

    • Love to see all these stranded f*****g 🇷🇺 tanks knocked off one by one and their helicopters too. I hope the NLAWs have been dutributed strategically amongst the whole of Ukraine’s army population and sons Stingers too.

  7. I have thought that the Ukrainian deployment into the East has effectively placed their regulars in a very dangerous position, not unlike the Allied advance into Belgium in May 1940.

    Looking at our deployment into Estonia it feels like another overly forward deployment if deterence fails. The gap between Russia and Kaliningrad is very narrow so could be used to cut off the Baltic States, something I am sure NATO commanders are well aware of, but I guess the political imperitive of showing solidarity with the Baltic States is more important when trying to deter an agressive potential enemy.

    Cheer CR

    • My take is that it is more than political. Part of the problem with Ukraine is that there were no or very few NATO tripwire forces in the country. Russia was free to open fire without fear of hitting a NATO unit in a high-profile incident, and so they did.

      Increasing presence in the (much more vulnerable) Baltics not only demonstrates commitment and prepositions assets, it could deter Russia from pulling another Ukraine and grabbing e.g. Estonia, for fear of NATO personnel getting caught up in the crossfire and creating a precedent.

      • How I see it too Matt C, if The West is serious about this then we need to put ‘our’ troops on the line. That is something that Putin will understand. In theory they needn’t even be that well armed etc in this instance (NOT THAT I’M SUGGESTING WE USE THEM AS SACRIFICIAL PAWNS). You would think it would reinforce things in Putin’s head if we are going in ‘heavy’ though and ready for the fight.

      • Hi Matt,

        It is indeed political and it is a point that needs to be made.

        However, it does not change the miliatry situation. NATO forces in the Baltic States are vulnerable to being cut off from the rest of NATO.

        That risk is mitigated somewhat by the fact that the Russians have moved some naval units from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Also NATO air power should be able to deal with the Russian Air Force in time but whether they could do it in time to relieve the Baltic States is something I cannot judge.

        European NATO land forces are significant on paper but how effective are they given that some nations have been cashing in on the peace dividend. There were suggestions a couple of years ago that the Cerman Army would struggle to field a single brigade due to a lack of spares, for example.

        European NATO is likely to find that it will cost more to rebuild their military capability than the peace dividend paid out! I think that is certainly the case for the UK, given the hollowing out of our military industrial base.

        If we see further uplifts of UK defence spending in the near future i.e. within the next couple of years, then I will be reasured that we are reacting to Putin’s agression. If not, then we need to find some politicians who will do what is right by the country, rather than their backers…

        We live in an extremely dangerous moment and there is little real leadership. The West needs a leader or, as Private Frazer would say, “We’re doomed.”

        Cheers CR

        • On the Estonian deployment, you are appreciating the matter from a solely tactical perspective. Before we even get there, we will first meet the issue of escalation – as far as I’m aware, never before since 1945 have NATO troops fired openly on Russian troops, and vice versa, discounting proxies and little green Russians dressed in ChiCom and Libyan uniforms. It would be a dangerous precedent to set, for all sides.

          Regarding capability; I’m sure everyone will take defence spending more seriously now, but my concern will be whether it will be a knee-jerk reaction – my favourite example, US Congress demanding A-10s instead of F-35s because they’re so testifiably effective in fighting insurgents – or a considered approach which accepts the current reality that you fight with the army you built 10 years ago.

          In the British context, there may be hue and cry over “capability gaps!” – just as there was with the Harriers & carriers – but less patience to build the Armed Forces of 2032, accepting that looking around us now, THIS is the Armed Forces we shall have until that time.

      • To be honest Matt , it’s not really relevant if other nato forces were there or not. If he moved into Estonia it’s war with every nato county, article 5 is not a “ only if they attacked our troops as well clause”. We are deploying the troops we have available to make sure he knows he will be met by force and that NATO will fight. So it’s more statements of intent that tripwire.

        • It is relevant, and at the heart of the Nato EFP strategy since 2016. The reason is, to put it cold-bloodedly, if someone were to take a country quickly and then present NATO and the world with a fait accompli, there will be markedly less public support than if Joe Public could be presented with a row of flag-draped coffins. To you no doubt Article 5 is Article 5, but far too many need a bit of blood to jolt their hearts and minds into action. We have seen a measure of this just last week – before Putin actually pulled the trigger, many if not most believed that he wouldn’t do it. It took shed Ukrainian blood to disabuse them of the notion.

          Most importantly, Putin knows this as well, and there is thus a greater chance that he will refrain from proving the rule – and so the game of high-explosive chicken plays on.

          Of course, to some, even bloodshed will not move them from their convictions. Those who still think nuclear deterrence is a waste of money, that we should pull our troops all the way across the Atlantic so as not to offend, that if we sit down with the likes of Putin and al-Qaeda for tea they can be reasoned with.

          • You may be right, it’s so sad that the wests resolve is so weak that that we need to put forward our armed forces to be sacrificed to ensure we all follow what is an absolute imperative for the future of our nations…not breaking article 5.

            Nations that will not fight are doomed.

    • We could threaten to remove the Kalingrad enclave(Russia has no right there on German/Lithuanian/Polish territory, just stole it after WW2) if Putin doesn’t withdraw from Ukraine. Then again Estonia is very close to St Petersburg.

      But it’s at least something that we demonstrate nothing else will be as easy as it seems in Ukraine. Though I believe we could do so much more there.

  8. The British army is in the wrong place ! The contributers underestimate the Quality of the troops. The Russian soldiers do not look up for it to me and I think there is emerging evidence that Russian logistics are built on sand. Its like asking an English army to start bombing the Welsh; there is a lot of Jones and Davis living in England. I think we with a few allies (Poland) , US intelligence, we could have given them dealt them a bit of a lesson. With an extra V sub deployed. Ukrainians seem to be well up for it.

    • Agreed. The Ukrainians are really holding on and have been smart to avoid engaging Russia on an open field. They were definitely underestimated, Russia’s first wave broke against Ukraine

    • Yep, hope it works out but seems like we’re bungling this one badly. We help militarily non NATO nations when it suits us. We’re basically declaring to the world that out friends can’t rely on us. Left too many high & dry in recent years.

      • To be fair I don’t think we’ve given any non NATO nation remotely the quantity and quality of kit we’ve given Ukraine.

  9. Better late than never!

    Germany to send Ukraine surface-to-air missiles and anti-tank weapons
    “Germany is to send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 “Stinger” surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine, the government in Berlin confirms.
    The move marks a major change from its long-standing policy of banning weapon exports to conflict zones.

    “In this situation, it is our duty to support Ukraine to the best of our ability in its defence against Vladimir Putin’s invading army,” says Chancellor Olof Scholz.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60517447

    • Shutting the barn door months after the horse has bolted. This should have been done at least a year ago, to enable Ukrainian units to properly integrate, train with and skilfully employ these weapons tactically.

      Always a day late and a dollar short with the bloody peaceniks.

      • I believe Ukrainian soldiers have already been trained on the stinger by the US and if anti tank weapons are javelin or NLAW then they’ve been trained on them also.

        • Trained sufficiently? These weapons were sent round beginning when? How long does it take our own troops to work up? To know not just how to push buttons, but to do it quickly, efficiently, and effectively – sited properly, employed in concert with other weapons, in fire and manoeuvre?

          Take NLAW for example. It was announced that 2,000 units were handed over in January. Let us propose 2,000 gunners were familiarised with the weapon. Should they be gifted 20,000 units tomorrow, there will still only be 2,000 gunners and 18,000 rank amateurs even if they are all armed… minus casualties of course.

          NATO had 7 years to prepare Ukraine for this day. Has all of that time been spent advantageously? The last-minute support is better than nothing, but I don’t want an air of back-slapping over this. It is a minimal effort, far from par.

          • I don’t remember anyone predicting 7 months ago that Russia would launch an all out assault on Ukraine with 3/4 of it’s frontline Battalion groups.

          • It was not 7 months, it was 7 years ago that Russia launched an all-out assault on Ukraine with elements of troops drawn from every major formation from Moscow to Vladivostok.

            Since then NATO has seen sufficient threat to justify manning the Enhanced Forward Presence, conduct Baltic Air Policing, Black Sea transit operations, and, crucially, to train Ukrainain troops under Op Orbital – these things were not done for lack of anything else to task the army with. During this period also shots were regularly exchanged with “separatists” and Ukraine was in a de facto state of war, if not exactly hot, then at least considerably warmer than anything seen even in the 1980s.

            It must be asked whether these 7 years were spent advantageously to prepare the Ukrainians, even if a direct intervention was not possible. When the threat of the USSR was recognised in 1946, the modern Bundeswehr for example was quickly formed, equipped, trained and pointed eastwards as expediently as possible. Can we say that the past few years were spent just as wisely?

          • The Russians didn’t throw 100 battalion groups at Ukraine in 2014. Maybe I haaven’t been reading the right reports but no-one i’ve read has ever suggested this was possible/likely until the last 3 or 4 months.

          • I fail to see the point you’re getting at. Regardless of the number of troops involved in 2014*, Russia did bite off large chunks of the country and used its military might to force the Ukrainians to a cease-fire, and since then has been supporting the resulting low-intensity conflict in the Donbas region. Low-intensity, but nonetheless still the hottest conflict involving Russia and a NATO ally for decades. Given this backdrop, you think that NATO and the UK’s support to Ukraine from 2015 to 2021 has been completely satisfactory?

            By 2020 nearly 90,000 troops including several armoured brigades, squadrons of multirole fighters, all the bells and whistles in short – had massed on the Ukrainian borders, and half again as many more were involved in exercises. Did that not, in your opinion, set off enough alarm bells yet?

            Consider the readiness cycle, how long it takes to prepare even regular soldiers for combat operations, to manufacture and introduce advanced weapons – and tell me what you think is a reasonable planning horizon for such a situation.

            *In 2014 Russia’s forces stationed in the area reached a peak of 90,000 troops, about 40,000 of which were directly supporting the battle.

          • Yeah but see above. If I missed a prediction of Russia throwing this size of force in order to conquer the whole of Ukraine i’ll happily put my hand up.

  10. To be honest, I do not understand why so many UK personnel are in Estonia, unless it’s for a large NATO exercise? Putin may well be a 24K turdslice, but he’s not completely mental.

    Other than ‘gobbing off’, he wont do anything to any NATO alliance member. There are however, some within Whitehall, and the MOD, who would like nothing better than to take on the Russian ‘problem’ once and for all, however that would be unthinkable…

    • I’ve been wondering how long certain Nato member states will sit back if things go wrong and the civilian population’s death rate increases in Ukraine.

      There will be an outcry from western nations for NATO to go in and help so having plenty of kit close at hand will serve to purposes.

      • It’s too late for NATO to go in, that boat has sailed. If they had gone in last week they would have stopped the invasion before it had started. Now it would mean all out war with Russia and that isnt’ going to happen.

        Give it a few weeks and you will see farage on TV demonising the Ukraining refuges, which there will be millions flooding into the EU/UK soon enough.

        • Steve
          That last paragraph is a load of codswallop re Farage
          Have you noticed that in the pics of the people fleeing the fighting there are very very few if any men
          Now look at the so-called refugees who come in by boat across the channel at its the opposite ie very few women and children and 90% men of fighting age who should have stayed and fought in there own countries like the Ukrainian men of fighting age
          I for one would have no problem with them coming to the UK

          • We are 2 days into the conflict, wait until Russia takes Kiev, then we will see a large amount of people trying to escape the country, unforuntely. You have to remember it didn’t take Farage very long before he was complaining about the Afgan refuges that we saved. Its depressing but instead of helping (which i think at this point would be a bad move anyway) we will be fighting over refuges with other NATO members.

            That is assuming Russia actually wants to take the city and isn’t just using it as a distraction to land grab in the south where its gaining access to the med.

          • Everyone is entitled to there own opinion that’s the lovely system we live in. Even if they are completely wrong in most peoples eyes. We also have the freedom to challenge anyone, anytime about what they say without fear.
            On another topic I’ve not seen any Ukrainian singles adverts on the site the last few days. For the last few weeks it was all I was seeing

        • I have to agree with you on that one Steve. It is too late for NATO to get involved now. What NATO has done, by sitting and doing nothing, was a shocking call to make. Normally it would come back to haunt some of these politicians who made that call, but I think they are too inept to listen.

          Horse, bolts barn door… or something like that.

    • Tom, NATO and the west and all the western governments have been passive for a very long time, it’s what’s driving this. I don’t think Putin will cross the NATO line yet…but i think there is no doubt his type alway do cross the line in the end, they have to to support the national dialogue they create. It’s the same with China. The more the west backs away from the unthinkable the more inevitable it becomes, the more the west pushes back the less likely the unthinkable will occur. Violence I am afraid has solved more geopolitical problems than appeasement ever did. The Cold War was. Not resolved by backing away, it was resolved with utter resolve, sacrifices and the fact the USSR looked into the eyes of western leaders an they were convicted they would go down in blood and fire if pushed.

      • Again to be honest, I believe China will ‘kick something off’ with Taiwan, within the next 12 months. If anything, it will stretch NATO to breaking point, as we rely on the US far more than we should do.

          • Yes I think it will depend, I don’t think China is yet ready to go head to head the the USN even in its own back yard. But I don’t thinks it’s far off. There will be a lot of testing by China and Russia to asses NATOs political and societal willingness to fight, as well as how well their Mercantile attack on the west continues to work. If we the west re-arm to the same extent as China Russia to keep up our advantage and meet them aggressively at every move, fight back on the mercantile front I think we have chance of stopping it. The movement China – Russia feel they have a fighting chance they will take the risk, I’m sure of it.

          • It’s also a critical industrial node for the west, the loss of Taiwan would be crippling to western industries and will as the military complex.

          • No, nothing to do with NATO, but a Communist dictatorship. If Putin wins in Ukraine, China will ‘go for it’ within 12-18 months.

        • That depends on wether Russia gets bogged down in Ukraine.

          Ukraine has not got a major airforce: Taiwan has.

          Taiwan has a lot of advanced western weapons.

          If shoulder launched can basically stall Russia on the ground and in the air then what would LGB’s and specific munitions do to an armoured column?

          We haven’t seen any real AAW in theatre – Ceptor etc would totally alter the balance.

          We can see with Russian tactics and weapons that bases could be defended by CIWS type unstallations.

          • Numbers. It’s all about numbers. NATO has 1, 2 or 3, thousand tanks in Europe. Russia has 13,000 Tanks… not armoured vehicles, Tanks, 13,000 of them.

            All about numbers.

          • Is it?

            Or is it about rates of attrition?

            If the Russian troops see Russian tanks as coffins on tracks then their utility is much diminished.

            The question is when you get to that point? The Ukrainians are doing a pretty good job on that front.

  11. Good to see that we’re not being shy with forward deployments, the numbers involved are a bit depressing but you can only piss with the cock you’ve got.

  12. When I was a youngster, I’d read about how NATO expected a period of tension to precede any conflict which would allow time to bring up reinforcements. At the time I thought this was unrealistically optimistic but having seen recent event, perhaps they were right afterall.

    • More like we need it now(or a couple of years ago!) but can’t get it for 5-10 years. Some saw this kind of thing comming but HMG has been firmly entrenched in cuts & more cuts, capability gaps, FFBNW & leaving a dysfunctional procurement & development of replacement kit fester abysmally.
      We got nowhere near the assumed “prolonged period of tension” they based that useless spin upon.

  13. Germany now supplying Stingers! If quick, with a little training these little bad boys can seriously change the atmospherics of the situation. I believe that the Cloggies also supplied some Stingers?

    • It all seems so late given the time needed to train, deploy them and use properly.

      Though I recall some D or was it G Squadron had barely any training down south with them and downed a Pucara.

      • They may not get well trained in its use and parameters but get a few on the air at once and a percentage will hit something low and fast mate! Either way another dimension for your Frogfoot and Hind/Hip lads to consider. Yep your right as normal mate a Pucara was downed in 82 by the SF lads with bigger all training on the system.

        • The mujahadeen were reported to have had a 20% success rate with their use of Stinger in Afgan, downing 270 Soviet aircraft. I’m assuming Frogfoot (Frogfeet?) and Hind/Hips were a big proportion.

          And in addition to the Dutch and Germans, didn’t the US ask Latvia and Lithuania to pass over their stocks of Stingers to Ukraine a couple of weeks ago? I’d be surprised if the US aren’t supplying them as part of their latest arms package. I guess if Ukraine are taking them down there are less targets for NATO to bother with in future. Ukraine is claiming 14 aircraft and 8 helicopters shot down so plenty more Russkie targets potentially available.

  14. I’m sure some of the Russian Army are good but from what I’ve seen today many are just conscript cannon fodder. Twitter & Facebook have all kinds of interviews with captured Russians. Of course social media doesn’t always reflect the truth but it did seem real to me. Tanks out of fuel, no ammunition, no food & actually some of them didn’t even know where they were. On Youtube there is some footage of a classic L shaped ambush at a cross roads with many vehicles burning. Seems to me that the Russians aren’t as professional or skilled as many assumed. By shear weight of numbers they may still prevail but I think that will be a hollow victory. The Ukrainians won’t give up and many people in the west will see exactly what the Russian Army is really like. Just imagine what a well equipped, supplied and trained western forces would do to these people.

    • Intersting Rob, I said as much on the use of conscripts last week but was rubbished here for not knowing what I was talking about. And whilst representing about 30% of the manpower (my research) they were only used for support roles not in combat. The Russians had now switched to volunteer “contractors”. Sounded impressive but on checking I found they were really conscripts who had signed on for longer to get better pay and rations.

      I’d be hardly surprised either if many Russian soldiers were kept in the dark about the nature of their mission. Many might even have thought this was part of a live firing exercise. What was a strong indicator of ill-discipline was the reports of their behaviour in Belarus – drunk on vodka, selling their kit, uniforms, rations, fuel etc.

      Respect for elders is an important value in Russia. Interesting to see how these young lads react when they receive a severe dressing down in Russian by Ukrainian babushkas.

      I’m off to track down the youtube videos.

  15. Good. But send forces to repulse the invasion of Ukraine while it can be saved.
    Putin puts a gun to our head, so what do the free Europe do? “Don’t shoot, we’ll not intervene!” rather than “There’s a gun on you too if you shoot.” We can’t hide behind WW3/MAD when it IS WW3 & Putin knows any nuclear use is the end of all Russia. We know it’s a bluff. Sacrificing Ukraine should not be an option.

    • Yes I find it so very hard that Russia has effectively used nuclear blackmail to ensure the western democracies do not fight to prevent a European democracy from being swallowed by an authoritarian dictatorship. China is watching and assessing, it will make a difference on its timetable around Taiwan after Taiwan Putin will be looking at the Baltic states….but let’s be honest if I was him I would be thinking Finland…it’s not a nato member and we don’t defend democracies unless they have signed on the dotted line with nato. To be honest I bet they have another summit ( just like the one they had before these events) and think about a joint timetable… Taiwan and Baltic at the same time.

        • My worry is Finland is not in NATO and we have just seen exactly how far the NATO governments will go for a none NATO member. So If we would not support Ukraine for fear of WW3 Putin will be asking himself maybe Finland is next or Moldova, tiny nation already has some Russian troops in it..swallow that one, The other option is south, secure Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia then you have an unbreakable a strategic road and rail link to Iran, work up that strategic alliance the. He will have the Northern Middle East in his pocket and can work on gaining influence over Iraq.

          The Problem is now we have drawn the red line for Western intervention at NATO, we have given both Russia and China strategic freedom across the globe,

          • The J.E.F. is outside NATO but it functions as a collective defence organisation. If Finland felt threatened it could ask for assistance. It’s not the same as NATO membership but it does mean they wouldn’t be alone. For the others Azerbaijan is closely allied with Turkey but the rest would be in the same position as Ukraine.

          • The problem is the same David as the key JEF members are NATO members it’s likely to become a geopolitical quagmire. If the JEF responds and is attacked, then it’s an attack on NATO member states. I’m not sure the west has really through and had a cogent geopolitical strategy that really works for some time.

          • I’m far from an expert but from my reading Article 5 can only be invoked if the territory of a member state is attacked. So an attack on Finland or more accurately Finnish territory would not qualify. The J.E.F. is an attempt to provide collective defence to those states who are not NATO members but want to be a part of a mutual security organisation. It’s not ideal but it’s viewed by all as better than nothing.

          • Hi David, Article 5 is about an attack on any NATO member within a defined geopolitical area with is essentially the northern hemisphere. So a Russian attack on a British or NATO member military asset Anywhere within the boundaries of the North Atlantic treaty ( North Atlantic, Europe, North America, med, Middle East ect). That’s why no NATO member has sent troops into Ukraine, because although it’s not in NATO it’s in the geographical area covered by article 5 so If Russia fired on NATO troops or military assets in Ukraine or Finland (or any neutral county in the geographical area covered) would trigger article 5. ( the the reason the falklands did not trigger article five was that the falklands were in the south Atlantic, if they had been in the North Atlantic it would have triggered a war with NATO.

          • We’re getting into Lawyer land now which is not in my comfort zone ! So a NATO state unit sent to a non NATO state attacked by a third non NATO state would fall within the parameters of article 5 ? Yeah i’m gonna go lye down for a bit.

          • Yes but only if it is within the geographical area covered in article 5. Basically is was to prevent The USSR say blowing the RN out of the high seas without it formally falling under article 5.

          • Let’s be honest I don’t actually Think anyone had a clue where the falklands were before 1982. My dad and all my mates dads were in the FAA and I remember everyone looking it up.

            I Alway got the impression it was a bit of a shock to all our dads and as far as I could tell the FAA was only really keen on warmer places at the time, infact my dad and his mates were dedicated developers of the med style tan before such things as Spanish holidays were a thing, and the whole idea of sailing off to the south Atlantic pissed them off entirely. most of them spent their formative years on the big carriers doing world ( well the warm sunny bits) cruise type deployments.

  16. The published details of how many SA80s there were in stores a few weeks ago, is looking seriously insuffient. It wasn’t enough to fully arm the armed forces and for sure wasn’t enough to do what Ukraine is doing and handing out guys to anyone that wants to fight.

    The UK itself hasn’t been under serious threat for a long time, but equally it means we lack supplies to give to allies.

      • I was curious about the latest interview with the defense sec, they are not going to say what arms they are going to send from now on, saying for obvious reasons. I can understand not wanting to say how or when they will send them, but keeping the what part secret makes me wonder if we have run out of stuff to send.

        • Hi Steve,

          The Ukrainians are not short of small arms. They have more AKs than you can shake a stick at. They need more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. That means we could gift more javelins, NLAWs and probably some Blowpipe missiles. At the same time we need to buy more to replenish our own stocks (not Blowpipe mind you because they are rubbish).

          • Hi Rob, if we still had Blowpipe in storage, then we would have the following newer generations of MAPADs in storage as well, Javelin (British SAM version), Starburst, which would be better to send; though I doubt we have any of those older variants left in the UK. I’m sure other posters can confirm for us.

          • Javelin is an AT weapon mate.
            Starburst? You mean Starstreak HVM using LMM launcher.

            The TA once had 3 regiments worth of LMM Starstreak, the regiments were long cut but I assume/hope the missiles and Launchers were kept.

            The army has but a single battery of LMM Starstreak now, supporting 16 AA Bde.
            The rest of 12 Reg RA is comprised of Stormer carrying Starstreak HVM.

            Bare bones on the AD front, we did not need them facing ragheads in the deserts and mountains.
            Stupid, stupid government cuts.

          • And just to outline the sheer scale of the cuts since 2004 Future Army Structures.

            Then –
            1 Regiment Towed Rapier. ( 16RA )
            1 Regiment Tracked Rapier.( 22RA )
            1 Regiment Stormer Starstreak HVM (12RA )
            1 Regiment Starstreak HVM using LM Launchers ) ( 47 RA )
            Plus 3 TA Regiments.

            7 Regiments Total.

            The Armed Forces of the UK 2006 then listed 135 Fire Units on Stormer and 145 on LML ( lightweight Mobile Launcher )

            Today? 2 Regiments!

            Utterly SCANDALOUS.

            THAT is what Journalists should be ramming down HMGs throat at EVERY opportunity and those cretins Blair Brown and Cameron too.

          • Scandalous and slightly scary; if defense is not one of the number one topics from now on and a policy that wins elections I will despair.

          • Defence may not have got many votes in the past, but it is the last line of defence of our existence. People expected, presumed, the Tories would look after it. On here we’re all too aware of how horrifyingly wrong that assumption is, but as soon as SHTF HMG has to reverse the slide PDQ or face extinction at the polls.

          • Frank ,1983 Torie landslide over Kinnock and the Red wedge thanks too our little venture down south 2nd carrier rushed into service sept82 3rd carrier Ark Royal brought forward All surface Ships up armed with 20mm and twin30s ,phalanx super Rboc chaff Elsa 8mins breathing hood very awkward juggling act but boy did we feel better going to sea

          • That light AAA didn’t last though. Shipboard SAMs are better than then but the only Lt AAA spot on our scorts is taken by a bushmaster v slow firing gun suitable for shooting up skiffs but useless against air attack except v slow moving coppers that stray too close.
            The Tory “triumph” of the Falklands never needed to happen had they not planned such cuts that convinced the Argies that we were withdrawing interest & defence from the Falklands & the capability to challange a fait accomplis. A quick deployment of a small naval force could’ve nipped it in the bud.

          • Thanks Frank, and thanks tò Galtiare if he hadn’t been so impatient and waited John knott would have swung the axe and Fearless and Intrepid would have been razorblades and we’d have had to go cap in hand to the yanks they offered us an iwo class the Chilean said we could use the Norfolk which we had just sold them when we went back down in 83 we had lost all the workboat skippersLaunch and our seaboat , gained 2 ribs 2x 20mm Gamb01s 2x20mm 7alphas and 2xtwin 30mm skipper wasn’t happy losing his huntress

          • Hi Daniele, I believe we used the Javelin name before the AT weapon, the British Manpads where in this order:
            From 1975 Blowpipe, from 1984 Javelin, from 1993 Starburst, from 1997 Starstreak. I totally agree we are woefully under resourced in air defense. Not in quality but in numbers. That surely has to change now?

          • Well I never. Blow me down with a feather.
            I looked both up and you’re right.
            Was not in service long and also looks like it uses the LML too.

          • Yes, and (warning rant approaching) likely all disposed of and not stored away for a raining day. A massive waste of what could have been ready to hand supplies for Ukraine, yes I know there would have been a cost of maintenance and storage, but still the waste (rant complete).

          • I assume though these things have a shelf life? Like other munitions. They are mid 90s!
            Not like putting Tanks in CHE storage.

          • And nothing wrong with a rant, some of mine from years back were ridiculous! I’ve “mellowed” with age…😏

          • Probably, but I would guess they would deteriorate over time, from say 98% to lower numbers. I can’t imagine they just stop working at the expiry date. Maybe some minor maintenance could keep their effectiveness rate up. I don’t know enough about it. Academic now, as they are all gone.

          • Just flicked through the posts I remember when we used too carry a platoon of 42 lads that they carried the Car Gostav 84mm

          • Blowpipe is total rubbish.

            You’d be better off giving 10% of the number of Stingers.

            Giving them a few hundred Stingers will change the balance of things as the Russians won’t be able to use a lot of air assets freely. They will be forced to go high level and given that lack of highly accurate tactics displayed would essential mean that air power was for show rather than precision take downs.

            Even just the Russians knowing Stingers are in theatre changes the calculus.

            In our usual negative way we haven’t said that UK had the correct weapon in quantity: MLAWS?

          • I don’t want to be too specific on here for obvious reasons.

            They all had their uses let’s put it that way. They were all better than Blowpipe.

            But if the Ukrainians have Javlin + NLAWS + Stinger in quantity: why complicate things?

            The US is openings it’s stockpiles and they will have replenishment contracts in place.

            I’m sure Sweden will be manufacturing NLAWS to replenish stocks.

          • Evening Rob:
            The Dutch and Germans have revealed they are going to send arms and ammo to Ukraien.
            Dutch:
            200 Stinger missiles and 50 Panzerfaust 3″ anti-tank weapons with 400 reloads

            Germans:
            500 “Stinger” missiles and 1,000 anti-tank weapons which I would presume are Panzerfaust 3″

            From what I can see the Ukrainians decided long ago that if push came to shove, they would leave teams behind the lines in which to strike rear echalons and supply lines. A lot of the videos of destroyed Russian convoys appear to substiate that point,
            https://twitter.com/akdenizpolitik/status/1497591920360673281?s=20&t=f1TeH71Bolqow5cgJzYs6g

            Its as if they are going withb the chinese adage of a death by a thousand cuts, and in this day and age of instant news and social media, the deaths of thiusands of Russian soldiers during an invasion of another country will soon colour favour back home.

          • Hi Farouk.

            Yes that is Loggie column of fuel, bridges and recovery vehicles completely destroyed. More of the same would be great because once the thaw sets in the Russians are going to have this massive armoured force stuck in the mud and, if the Ukrainians can do there stuff properly, no resupply or engineering support. That could, hopefully, lead to large scale surrenders of their forward troops and end Putin’s war of choice in ignominy.

          • Ah Panzerfaust and Stinger, old friends of Russian Armies of the past. I remember the impact CIA supplied Stingers in the hands of Mujahadeen (they had a 20% success rate but downed nearly 270 Soviet aircraft apparently), can imagine what they could do to Russian aircraft if available to the Ukrainian lads in quantity. As for Panzerfaust…Hope its not the WWII version 😀

          • Richard wrote:

             I remember the impact CIA supplied Stingers in the hands of Mujahadeen (they had a 20% success rate but downed nearly 270 Soviet aircraft apparently), can imagine what they could do to Russian aircraft if available to the Ukrainian lads in quantity.

            Heres a short vid of a Hind (Either a Mil 24 or Mil 35) getting on the wrong end of a MANPAD, yes the vid states Stinger, but lets not forget the Poles handed over quite a few Groms

          • Ukrainians were very sensible to use their fives to do ambush tactics rather than pitched battles.

            The Ukrainians confidence will have been boosted by the success of those tactics.

            MLAWS seems to be working with some very very brave Ukrainians operating it.

          • Stingers are great.

            Panzerfausts are good too but based on my limited knowledge of them, are they that much of a game changer? They are essentially just RPGs right (which I would assume Ukraine has plenty of). Still helpful of course but it seems like a relatively minor thing.

        • We haven’t run out. Ben Wallace chaired a virtual conference on Friday night about supplying weapons and munitions to the Ukraine, with the U.K. helping to organise it all.

    • Wasn’t the amount still more than our total military personnel, though? Meaning more than one SA80 for each serviceman/woman?

      And it’s not like RAF ground crew or 90% of RN sailors would need one, really.

      • Morning Steve sorry for this late post I agree with your sentence on RAF and 90% of RN personnel their was an unfortunate incident on an A class on a visit to Southampton when the Casing Sentry went Tonto in the Control rm killing an officer and others injured Small arms and Matelots somewhat of a recipe for either Deliberate actions or NDs galore I’ve witnessed quite a few Different to the Army Marines, and RAFReg all have personal weapons , Matelots just grab and go

  17. The Ukrainians really are defending their nation with their all. Just seen the video the the man trying to stop an armoured formation with just his body. So many brave people.

  18. This is welcome. Problem is the UK Army has been cut so much there is not much left. You cannot base policy, and budgets, on wishful thinking. Reactivate
    several thousand troops now.

  19. I understand the rationale behind the Deployment, am interested in the actual numbers of gun wielding squaddies and tanks. At a guess I’d say 8 tanks, always struggle a bit with the troop numbers.

    • There’s 2 BGs there I think? So maybe around 24 Tanks with 30 to 40 Warrior, up to 12 AS90 in 2 batteries, then add some dozens of CVRT and 432s, 6 Stormer, Titan and Trojan dets, CRRVs in the REME, and so on.

      • My numbers may be out of date, but detailing my thinking on that a bit more and what a BG comprises –

        What is in a BG?

        Half an AI Bn ( That is 2 AI Coys +supports )
        1 Sqn RAC Challenger2.
        RA SPG Battery.
        RA AD Battery.
        RAC Recc Sqn.
        RE Armd Eng Sqn ( Titan/Trojan/Terrier/432 )
        REME CS Coy. ( CRRV/ Warrior.432 )
        RA GMLRS Battery ( 9 GMLRS? )

        Each BG made up of 1 squadron of Ch2 ( 12 ) plus a few HQ element.
        2 Companies of Warrior. I recall AI Bns had 9 Warrior per Company, 3 per Platoon? Plus Coy HQ vehicles? ( 36 ) +?
        Each BG 1 Battery AS90 ( 6/6 )
        2 Armd Recc Sqns from the RAC ( Scimitar/Spartan )
        1 AD Battery Stormer (6)
        AI Bns also have Scimitar in Recc Platoon, 432s, and I think Spartans for Javelin teams?
        So numbers per BG of these?

        A mix of conjecture and recall of what I have read, might be wrong.

        • Hello Daniele, The Royal Welch were originally supposed to replace the Royal Tanks regiment who have been out in Estonia for about 3 to 4 months already. Which poses a number of questions, Who will replace the Royal Tank regiment, are these deployments going to be rotated every 6 months or is it stag-on stop-on. But most of all we only have about 4 deployable BG’s at the moment, so we have half of the British army already deployed and we are still only at the stage of trading insults, Just wondering what we have to up the anti when Putin is finished with Ukraine.
          Maybe our politicians and the SC will take inspiration from the Ukraine brothers and pick up arms them selves to lead the charge.!!!

          • Given US army regular units are deployed for one year every three years on a preplanned deployment (Afghanistan/Iraq), I don’t see the problem as in future soldier structure there are five Boxer battalions and two CR3 regiments. All of these units have three sabre companies so a 1/3 deployment would have two tank squadrons of 18 CR3 and five infantry companies of 14 warriors and 2 battalion HQ’s
            Currently in Estonia there are 2 battalion HQ’s, two tank squadrons and max 3 infantry companies so I don’t see the issue about not being able to sustain this.

          • It is true we will have more to deploy in the future, unfortunately we can only hope we can get to those “future” deployable situations in about 10 years but today we only have 4 deployable armoured brigades so with 2 already deployed it not looking good for the next few years.

        • Units split between both of the battle groups are:
          Ajax and dreadnought squadrons of the RTR.
          C company Royal Welsh
          Engineers from 26 regiment
          28/143 battery RA
          These are not all units they are just the ones I am aware of.
          The stated strength of a RAC armoured squadron is 18 tanks split into four platoons of four.
          For an infantry company it is 14 warriors in three platoons of four warriors.
          There are only three infantry companies in 1 Royal Welsh so there is a maximum amount of three infantry companies deployed.
          On deployment RA batteries usually increase from 6 to 8 guns but I am unsure if it has happened in this case.

          Edit: I also don’t know if these units are deploying with their authorised strength.

          • Thanks Louis. Interesting, I had the Ch2 strength of the armoured regiment of 4×12 Tanks Sqns plus HQ Tanks.

            Yes, for a moment I thought you meant only one of RW 3 infantry coys had deployed. Is the whole Bn deployed or just 2 of 3 coys as I thought plus elements of FS Coy/HQ Coy/Echelon?

          • They used to be 4×14 with 4 platoons of 3 but moving to 3 squadrons instead of 4 reduced administrative personnel whilst only reducing tanks per regiment by 2.
            C company deployed with RTR in the initial deployment so the remaining two probably will have deployed now as part of 1 Royal Welsh but only one may have deployed ( leaving both battlegroups each with one armoured squadron and one armoured infantry company, plus supporting elements and allied formations- I know a Dutch company was integrated into RTR battlegroup)

  20. It would be interesting to know exactly how many ch2 /warriors have been deployed. Guessing the government is keeping that quiet as they don’t want the number compared to russian tank numbers in the media.

  21. Just read on Politico Europe that the EU wants to coordinate aid to Ukraine. What a bunch of self promoting, cover their arse shysters!

    I’d also put Macron and Germany in that category in this affair……

    • Agree Macron has custard all over his face after his “Im the big statesman of Europe” trip to Moscow to meet mad arse Purin. Then coming back to europe saying hes acheived reassurances of no intention to invade Ukraine. “Peace in our time” my arse Macron youve were played and now look like a damn fool.
      On that note what exactly are our friends and allies the French doing? Bugger all. Their commitment to Nato forward battle groups and reassurance missions / air policing is much less than UKs. Hell even Canada seem to be commiting more support.

      • Mr Bell wrote:

        Agree Macron has custard all over his face after his “Im the big statesman of Europe” trip to Moscow to meet mad arse Purin.

        Due to numerious stories about how Macron leans more towards men than women , I don’t think that was Custard
        

  22. If the worse case scenario happened, and we had to face off against Russia troops, how well would we do?

    I don’t have much knowledge in this area, but I get the impression we have some of the best trained troops and know-how in the world when it comes to warfighting, but unfortunately it seems as if a lot of our equipment is outdated, and we don’t have much in the way of numbers.

    I’m hoping the recent events will wake up our politicians, and lead to decisions to increase our defence spending. It looks to me as if a lot of the world sees the west as weak, which isn’t a good thing.

    • We would do fine. Initially we would cause the Russians a real headache and disproportionate casualties until attrition and a lack of reserves came into play. Our armed forces are hollowed out by too many defence cuts. Too much FFBNW. Too many capability gaps.
      Quantity has a quality of its own and we lack quantity.
      We need to put defence budget up. Cut social care and state pensions if you have too. Scrap pensions escalator as its unjustified when everyone else is getting below inflation pay rises.
      We need 3.5-4% defence budget. Armed forces need to increase personnel numbers 20,000-30,000back into army. 5000 more each for RN and RAF.
      Upgrade all Chally 2s to 3 standard. Get another 24-36 more Apache Es. Scrap that massive cock up ajax and get proven cv90 series vehicles to replace all cvrts and potentially warrior too.
      Land ceptor needs purchasing in large numbers so every battlegroup has top tier air defence.
      RN needs to up its type 26 order back to 10 or 13 and ensure type 45s, type 26, type 31+32 all have mk41 vls onboard.
      Astute batch 2s needed x3 or 4

      • “Cut social care and state pensions”??? You do realise the poorest(whom those cuts would hit hardest-few have any savings) have already been hit hardest paying for austerity caused by rich people’s wild speculation? Of course the nations forces have been run down criminally & needs a major uplift, but why is it never those at the top who bear the resonsability their huge wealth comes with. You may see social care & state pensions as annoying expenses but for millions they are absolute lifelines & for many the value of them has been steadily eroded over the years.

        • Yes but we desperately need 12 armoured divisions on the north Germany plane and another 12 in Dorset just in case so you need to tell your granny she can’t get her hip operation because people in Germany can’t be arsed to pay for their own defence.

      • 400 million people in Europe and until very recently the UK and Greece where the only ones spending the 2% of GDP on defence. Why should people in the UK have to give up social spending to protect countries in Europe that can’t be arsed to spend money. Our military is easily able to defend the UK and easily able to defend Europe or anywhere else on the planet with NATO and other allies.

        • Barely defend maybe, easily defend, no. Our much crowed about “2%” GDP is a con, achieved by sneeky accounting tricks rather than delivering military force. HMG has made a slight improvement, covering some projects, but we’re starting from a dangerously low force level. Why do you think Putin feels so confident to act like this? He knows how weak in substance & weak politically & morally we are. All the fine sounding HMG soundbites are empty spin to cover their backsides from being found out to have treacherously neglected & cut our forces so dangerously. Most the positive things on the cards are woefully late & costing us dearly.

          • Who on earth could possibly pose a conventional military threat to the UK home islands short of maybe the USA. As for deterring Putin even the military might of the USA has not done that. What do you possibly think the UK could spend on defence that would achieve anything like that military power. Putin is not deterred by us or the USA because he is not attacking NATO and he has 6,000 nuclear weapons of which at-least some are bound to still be working that stops NATO getting involved outside of the alliance boundary.

          • Our def spend calculation uses the NATO definitions along with every other member of NATO from the US to Luxembourg. You need to speak to NATO about your concerns.

  23. ….and another thing….the apparent lack of air superiority??
    What, even with the hoards of su27 , 35 , 49 1/2 which are available? (And which certain people would have it are far superior to a Tiff)
    AA

    • The majority of Ukrainian airfields and air defenses were hit on the first day. The aircraft that survived would have spread out and been moved to smaller ones, I suspect. The issue the Ukrainians have is their command and control is probably shot. They’ll be relying on ground based observers phoning in reports, rather than using radar to see what’s coming or what’s happening, as these have been destroyed.

      The Mig-29 in particular was designed to operate from rough airfields and roads. It is more self-reliant than a Su-27. So in the current circumstances is probably the better aircraft to have.

      I have heard/read that their UAVs (TB2s) have been causing havoc in the Donbas region. But also some of their Buk SA-11s are still active and have shot down a number of aircraft. They normally operate with a second vehicle, which is mounting a long range search radar. But that would be like a lighthouse lighting up the dark and make itself a priority target. The missile unit has a tracking radar, that could also be used for target searching. The Ukrainians also updated the Shilka SPAAG with new radar, optics and weapons aiming systems. This was primarily done to counter UAVs, but would be equally lethal to aircraft and especially helicopters.

    • I would love to see Typhoons even just tranche 1 with AMRAAM deployed in Ukraine. If even mig29s are scoring kills against the Russian’s it would be amazing to see what the Ghost of Kiev could do with a Typhoon. Pity we did not pass on some tranche 1 before the fighting started. Too late now unless we have some “volunteers” willing to go. We have mercenary forces flying typhoons with Qatar so in theory could do the same in Ukraine.

  24. Just as an aside. We have an extremely small army of which my son is a proud member, but he is driving ambulances because they have a staff shortage.

  26. Shame on any of us not sending at least token forces into Ukraine after the invasion started. Escalation was Putin invading, not us doing the right & proper thing after having encouraged Ukraine so much. For all we are currently doing I really think we should deploy troops & airpower rather than applauding a nation resisting, appealing for help, while slowly being subjected.
    If someone holds the nuclear threat against you, you hold yours against them so nobody does anything stupid. Not throw up your hands & allow your neighbor to be mugged. Putin has been shown for what he is. What the west actually is, is a shadow of the principles it once lived up to. Seems like kindly holding someone’s hand & giving them a cuppa & biscuit when what really is need is getting an ambulance & to hospital straight away before it’s too late.

    Very reminiscent of BJs weasel words clapping the NHS, paying lip service but doing nothing to make their jobs easier or allowing any real pay rise. I can only hope Ukraine pulls off beating the bully while we hold their coat from a safe distance.

  27. As in past posts I have argued the point that the defence planners of the UK made a fool hardy claim ‘that the days of land warfare are over.’ We find ourselves reinforcing NATOs northern flank with a battle group in Estonia. Surely we are going to have to tear up this assumption and start again. Overall and there is no other way this Country is going to have to increase the defence budget 3% of GDP in real terms.

    • They meant they were over for us, we spent a lot of money maintaining a large army in Germany because soviets could reach Calais in 7 days. This shower of 1980’s **** with welded deck chairs on the roofs can’t reach kiev in 7 days and it’s it 25 miles. That’s WW1 speeds. Imagine what typhoon with brimstone or Apache with hellfire would do to those Russian columns.

      • China is the only country that can potentially threaten the west and to counter China you need ships and lighter deployable forces.

      • So include in future planning assumptions, insert underestimate your adversary. We have a major land war on our doorstep. If anything is holding up Russias advance into Ukraine and I’m not in anyway questioning Ukraines bravery in adversity, it strikes me there seems to be an unwillingness of the Russian soldier to fight probably what they see as a senseless war.
        Early days I know but let’s assume and plan for the worst and hope for the best.

        • Putin has been spending more than he can afford on his military for some time now meaning his economy is becoming increasingly weak, That erodes the technical capability of his people and industry over time. This is why they lost the first Cold War. It’s also why he cannot pose a conventional threat to the west, a collapsing population of 144 million and an economy the size of the Texas will only get you so far. HMG can never afford enough to cover every eventuality and it’s always had a very sound idea of what the industrial base could support long term. A strong industrial and financial base allows you to make emended surges in war time. Look what we did in 1914 or 1939 or even in 2020 against COVID. That’s why we have staid in the game longer than anyone else and it’s the same basic assumptions and calculations that where being made in the second Anglo Dutch Naval War.

          • Russia has $600 billion in reserves money and gold and one of the lowest national debts in the world, thanks to gas and oil. In recent years the Russian navy have switched from patching up old soviet era warships, tanks and aircraft and are investing heavily in new equipment.
            I’m not talking a war economy here in the UK, we can and must equip our forces to be able to fight and survive. The west kicked the arse out of the peace dividend and defence was never a vote winner. I said 3% of gdp easily affordable and Germany of all nations have just announced that. As a member of NATO the 3% GDP would not break the bank. During g the cold War we spent 4.5% of GDP on defence.

      • Yes or a wing of A-10s. Interesting to watch video of a Russian SU-35 clearly taken out by a Ukrainian Mig-29 from his 6 o’clock. School boy error stuff really, flying straight and level, no attempt to manoeuvre – presumably had no idea the Mig was there… perhaps the “Cobra” manoeuvre is only reserved for air displays? But I had thought this was a wonder plane – I keep reading its the equal of anything in the west when countries are shopping for new kit? Interesting to see if the SU-35 makes it on to India’s next big ticket fighter procurement. God knows what RAF Typhoons with ASRAAM would do to them in a knife-fight.

      • Heard a British Army general being interviewed on Radio 4 on Friday evening. When asked about tanks, he replied that a naval term now applies to them, “targets”. Essentially he believed they’ve gone the way of the battleship, there’s just so much out there from NLAW to Apaches that can neutralise them.

        • I missed that, was he still serving, or one of those “recently” retired?

          It flipping annoys me, that some so called experts believe technology such as the latest ATGM has rendered the tank obsolete! Technology is a two way door so what works for one must also work for the other. Because if you fit something like Trophy APS to a tank. It balances out the offense/defence seesaw in the tank’s favor. It then becomes a contest of who has the most available missiles versus the most APS reloads.

    • Very true. There has been a naive assumption amongst military planners that the next major conflict will be fought digitally, in space or cyber. Yet here we are in 2022 with massed armour formations manoeuvring around Europe and amphibious landings.

        • Sorry, yes, you are correct, I wasn’t suggesting that cyber and digital attacks weren’t happening, just that the old adage of ‘ It’s troops who hold ground ‘ is as true now as it was 100 years ago.

          • Absolutely agree.
            Funny enough I was listening to the British General in charge of cyberwarfare and he was trying to downplay how destructive cyber can be. It’s just another theatre, but not the be all and end all, it doesn’t give you a switch that can be flicked that shuts down your enemy.

  28. Bit of breaking news out of Germany their government has agreed too increase Defence spending to 2%GDP about time I wonder why?

    • Wise move, don’t knock it when HMG achieves our “2%” by sneaky accountancy tricks rather than delivering fighting capacity. Let’s hope it doesn’t take the subjugation of Ukraine to get Europe’s governments to pull their heads out of the sand.

      • Quite right Frank , Germany has probably increased their funding too cover for the weaponry that they have just offered to the Ukrainians as after Nord 2 they had too show some solidarity for them and NATO

      • Frank don’t be ignorant. NATO accounting standards are uniform for all members to suggest some funny accounting is just silly and a failure to understand how things work in real life unlike television.

          • Just hate dodgy irrespective of party. Justice, good government & integrety are what matter, not party colour. I think our moral compass is badly damaged across society.

            I thought it had long been established on this site & elsewhere including pensions etc, was a move by Osbourne back in the early 2010s to make it seem we meet 2% without spending anything additional to acheive it?-Pulling the wool over the eyes of the electorate. If I’m wrong then I stand corrected.

          • Which party falls into the category avoiding any of those issues?

            Let me know and I will cast my next vote accordingly!

        • I thought it had long been established on this site & elsewhere including pensions etc, was a move by Osbourne back in the early 2010s to make it seem we meet 2% without spending anything additional to acheive it?-Pulling the wool over the eyes of the electorate. If I’m wrong then I stand corrected.

          • I have searched a few times in the past regarding the pensions but have never been able to find who decided on it or when it actually happened.

          • Hi Frank , when the libdem/tories came to power in 2010 a note was apparently left by the outgoing wisemen of the Treasury stating the cupboard was bare Labour had basically bankrupted the UK .Gordon Brown, had even blown the gold reserve

          • Yep. I’m a big fan of The Clangers, but not so much when it’s our leaders perfoming them at our expense!

          • Lets face it Brown must have been holding maths lessons for Abbott et al to follow.

            Borrowing the most expensive in living memory, lets borrow as much as we can. Gold at the cheapest price in living memory, lets sell off all that we have.

            He was hardly a genius to say the least.

  29. With news of weapon donations to Ukraine from the west what are the chances of the Russians being able to prevent those entering the country? I would assume that Ukraines borders with Poland, Hungary and Romania are simply too big? The stuff will wouldn’t be flown in, right? Could you imagine if the Russians shot down a western aircraft carrying weapons…big possibility of an escalation

    • Russia banned flights in the country I’m pretty sure, I don’t think the west would risk it as neither side are looking for an escalation now.

    • They would need to cut off the Western borders with Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Moldova. To do this they would need to push south hard from Western Belarus towards Lviv, but also via an amphibious assault to cut off Odessa. Then keep pushing north to link up with those heading to Lviv.

      The problem is the distances and the numbers required. To make sure they have the momentum they will need a very large number to begin with. But also disperse some of these to guard the flanks and endure the lines of communication are kept open. Something they seem to have forgot so far.

      This is something I would have expected the Russian Army to do on the first/second day of the conflict. This would have shown that Putin means to take-over the whole country. As it would stop any resupply from the West, but also prevent the Government etc from escaping. So far from what I’ve seen they are pushing to encircle Kyiv, push west towards the Dneiper River and form a land corridor to the Crimea.

      It’s not too late for this to happen. As there is still a huge number of troops in Belarus. Also their Marines haven’t been fully deployed either. If Russia believes Ukraine is being fed a lifeline from the West. I would then expect to see a large scale assault such as I’ve described, with the aim off cutting off that supply route.

  30. Chancellor Scholz has just made a major speech in Berlin, announcing the rearmament of Germany. A special fund of 200billion euro will be included in the 2022 budget, with greater than 2% of GDP allocated into the future.

    Scholz also announced the development of new fighter aircraft, the rapid construction of 2no LNG terminals and the re-opening of Germany’s nuclear power stations (which use nuclear fuel produced at Sellafield) Clearly Nordstream 2 is now kaput.

    Apparently the prosperity dividend of the past 30 years must be now be repaid with substantial security measures. He finished by saying that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a watershed moment and that Germany will defend Europe’s freedom

    Lets see how Johnsonski responds to that. Scrap another two escort frigates maybe? Or another couple of squadrons of Typhoons? Scholz is a fcuking star!

    • Also the BBC is reporting the 2% NATO target will be enshrined in the constitution. In the UK, it’s interesting that Labour’s Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy has pledged to increase defence spending if the party gained power.

      I think it’s worth pointing out, however, that the UK already meets the alliance’s defence expenditure target (with the caveat about what constitutes defence spending … something something pensions) so does the UK need to spend more? Personally I would say yes, I think the Navy had a good drumbeat of warship construction while the Airforce could do with a squadron or two more of fast jets. However, the army needs a lot of investment, particularly in its armoured forces, artillery and perhaps in a long range ground based air defence system.

    • Bravo Germany.

      I’ve always appreciated their sensitivity considering ww2 about getting involved overseas, and about going head to head with Russia, so that will considerably help with NATO.

      • Daniele, agreed. This is a major step for Germany, considering the history. Reading a bit more into it, suggests that Germany’s analysis is that this will be a long war and that they do not intend to be occupied again

    • Wow, all from an SDP government that’s historically riddled by Gazprom and a Green Party who would rather burn babies in coal plants than keep nuclear going. Putin really has changed everything.

    • Interesting news from Germany and big numbers certainly, however they have as much if not more hollowed out armed forces than what we do and the majority of that money will just go into updating kit and fixing issues rather than actually increasing numbers.

      I wouldnt say Scholz is a star, hes had an incredibly limp response to this situation so far however now finally seems to have stepped up.

  31. Compared to the numerous stage managed appearances of Putin just before the invasion, he seems to have gone very quiet the past 72 hrs. Surely there has to be a lot of disquiet in the Kremlin over the decision to go to war .

  32. Also, what on earth are the Chechens doing getting involved? What’s in it for them, considering their historic separatist aspirations and devotion to a certain violent cult. I genuinely felt sorry for some of the young Russian troops who were killed or captured, only kids following orders they probably don’t want to believe in. The Chechens on the other hand are going in by choice, I sincerely hope they get brutalised by the Ukrainians!

    • Chechens, a lots went off and fought for the Islamic state, The Ukraine is an Orthodox Christian Country if they have gone in then this isn’t going too be a war without atrocities

    • This is straight out of the old Soviet playbook. If there were issues with a certain group, they would bring in troops that shared no historic ties. Such as bringing in Siberians to quell the unrest in Georgia, before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

      Using Chechens, means they won’t view the Ukrainians as fellow Slavs and therefore hold back. Expect to hear or see things turning uglier.

  33. A paused Russian armoured column has been said to be “flash mobbed” by Ukrainian civilians to prevent it from moving off.

    Some of our hand wringers really are not fit to lick the boots of these Ukrainians.

    • Agreed Daniele, it even looks like the Germans are being dragged, kicked and pulled by the rest of NATO to ‘do something’, all far too late, the UK Ukrainian ambassador praised the UK for its steadfast support this morning, but he said Germany is just too late, but better than nothing….

      Oh and Germany has agreed to spend 2% GDP on Defence, so the absolute bloody minimum at the 11th hour …. Slow hand clap for the Germans everyone….

      Honestly, either they buck theirs ideas up right now with a good jarring kick up the arse, or throw them out of NATO, no-one has any confidence they will respond if NATO is attacked.

  34. Increase our armed forces, NSM for Typhoon, and start replacing outdated equipment with something decent to keep our servicemen and women ahead of the pack not on par with.

  36. Now let’s do the same.

    And my suggestion only the other day on here in relation to all Nato members, “there could be no other answer to Putin’s aggression”.

    STAND BY STAND BY

    “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced sharp hikes in the country’s defence spending.

    Speaking at an emergency session of the German parliament he said €100 billion ($113 bn) will be added to Berlin’s military budget this year.

    It means Germany will now spend more than 2% of its annual GDP on defence, a longstanding NATO target the country has previously failed to meet – despite pressure from the US, and in particular former President Donald Trump.

    It’s the latest in a string of policy reversals announced by Germany in the last few days, including its decision yesterday to start sending weapons directly to Ukraine.”

    German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says the world has “entered a new era” following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and that “there could be no other answer to Putin’s aggression”.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

    • I think the enormous upswell in demand by the German public for their government to do something, (look at the huge protests), has finally galvanized the Germans into action … A combination of of external and internal pressure if you will…

      The Russians have just gone on high Nuclear alert, so time to paint the windows white chaps and dig out the old protect and survive books…

      I do hope we get the second back up Trident boat to sea now ..

  38. Great to see other nations stepping up (& exceeding) the 2% commitment.

    It’s just a pity that at a time of mass rearmament, the uk has for many reasons denuded its ability to make and sell armour. Chally1 and Chally2 were great, but for various reasons have been outsold by Leopard and as such our ability to make and sell armour is non existent, even the ability to upgrade now requires foreign assistance.

    Similarly Warrior, a brilliant vehicle that was not sold, not developed and will now require a foreign vehicle to (if) replace. Disgraceful.

    Germany will again make a nice profit out of the European upturn in military spending. That could have been the uk, and if uk manufacturing/governments had been on the ball that manufacturing base could have supplied uk forces with continuously upgraded kit that was value for money

  39. Well Germany has just come out and said we live in a new age and they have just put 100billion into their defence budget, which is the entire normal spend for 2 years and will put them well above the 2%. So Germany has woken up and smelt the coffee, let’s see which other nations do the same and if it extends to China and a mercantile focus as well as military.

      • I got a text from a friend in HK (non British) saying Boris needs to brush his hair. Not surprising when his video message looked like he just got out of bed, even more a mess than his normal style.

        Realistically if he can’t even manage that, his not going to be leading us through this crisis

  40. Interesting the British government has said it will support British citizens as private individuals going to Ukraine to fight for the Ukrainian government. That’s a sea change in British policy as you normally get arrested for such things and looked at very closely by the authorities.for a minister of Defence to effectively say go and fight for Ukraine is not something we have seen well since the Spanish civil war in the 1930s.

    • My Great Uncle was killed in the Spanish civil war, though he was a pacifist and left the East End to go and drive an ambulance.

      The big difference for me was in recent years we have had people who want to fight for ISIS rightly opposed as they are basically traitors to the west, and their nation, as ISIS is opposed to western democracy and see us as infidels to be killed.

      And in line with your point, I also read of some volunteering to fight against ISIS with the Kurds getting prosecuted.

      Ukraine are fellow Europeans fighting who could become a common enemy. I for one have no issues with it even though its window dressing, would make little difference to the end result and gives HMG another PR opportunity in voicing how much they’re helping.

      But if some feel that strongly and have skills and military experience to contribute fair play to them.

      It is weird how history repeats itself. In WW2 the Nazis raised numerous foreign legions and divisions of European volunteers to join the Waffen SS and fight the “Asiatic Bolshevik hordes” Many did. The Nazis spun it as saving western civilisation which is in a similar vein to some of the language from Ukrainian leaders today, that they are fighting to defend Europe. In fact they are fighting to defend themselves but they jump on the notion that this could be just the start.

      • I agree, I though the prosecution of people going to fight against isis was perverse. Obviously the individuals going to fight for isis were traitors and I use that world carefully and in the classic sense.

        I think it’s appropriate for the government to ensure people are aware that if the go and fight for Ukraine there will be no comeback and they will be supported by the foreign office ect when they need to return.

        Anyone that offers to support Ukraine should be congratulated and treated well on return ( health services ect).

        And yes the world turns and we advance but the basic geopolitical drivers of conflict stay the same as to the inevitable outcomes.

    • There have been a couple of Brits shown in an interview fighting Russian separatists in the Donbas region. I haven’t heard or seen anything about these guys since it kicked off big style.

      There are plenty of European and US versions of the Wagner Group that include many ex-forces personnel. Could Ukraine afford these “contractors”? It would make things a lot more complicated.

  42. Time for the UK Gov to spend on OUR Security and get the numbers up. Even in the Cold War UK armed forces were too small. A Fleet of 50+ Escorts. double up the subs and for God Sake get those Typhoon Tranch 1’s ready to go, get the F35’s up to 4+ Units with the FAA doubling up on Merlins too. They can still run rings round a Mig or Su in air to air. You can only ever bargin from a point of Strength. Lets match up to what Germany has just announced. UK Army 150,000+ RAF 20+ figher Sqd, RN 50 + Escorts and more subs (both Nuc and Conventional), with reserves too, Bring Back ROC for starters and local area reserves to ensure we are secure at home (Dad’s Army did more than we know). You have to make the cost so high the bully will back down. The Armed Forces are the UK’s Insurance policy and presently way below what is needed. Boris wake up.

    • Hi Angus, unfortunately we will never get to a fleet of 50 escorts, even if we turned the taps on to our ship building industries we are probably only every going to be able to put 2 hulls a year in the water, then the RN has to work them up for commissioning. So it would take 25-30 years of none stop focused work to get 50 escorts.

      As for nuclear subs, it’s not really possible to increase the drum beat as we need to move onto the ballistic missile boats and a boat in the water every couple of years is all we will ever get to ( 12-13 boats both ballistic missile and SSN so at the most in say 20 years we could have 8-9 SSNs).

      lots of other things we could crack on with. We should be getting those 2 hulls a year in the water, as will as ensuring our present escorts are refitted to what their stability and metacenter will allow, we can also keep the 23s running for as long as possible.

      we need to max our buy of F35B, increase our typhoon squadron numbers and get more fires and ensure the army has the other kit it needs, as well as stop the reduction in size. We need to be able to deploy a well equipped division into Europe as needed as well as the RM on the northern flank.

      • Absolutely Johnathan, an emergency defence review is needed, to set about rebuilding the numbers all round for the long term.

        As an emergency measure, right now, we need to freeze the planned drop in conventional capability and troop numbers.

        How we rebuild the Army numbers is a somewhat vexing issue, we need to increase rates of pay, living conditions and prospects.

        That’s going to mean a lot of money to get the foundations right. You can’t set about building the numbers up sustainably without that, or do it overnight.

        I would suggest a ringfenced 3.5 % GDP on Defence, enshrined in law, to stop the next generation of political idiots from rendering us defenceless again!

        Parties on both sides are equally guilty, but Cameron’s cuts to defence in 2010 were wildly dangerous and left big gaps….

        • Agreed, and I hope this will stop one idiot in particular on here from saying, “But How Can We Afford It, Nigel? Where’s The Money Coming From?”

          It now appears once again he’s changing his tune to suit!

        • Well said, I have often argued for a 3.5%-4% GDP on defence with an on year increase of inflation plus 0.5% per year. Germany seems to have anounced a 100 billion euro package for defence plus extra money to reactivate nuclear power station and building two LNG terminals. A package that is about 200 billion euros in total paid for by credit. As the German defence budget is about 46billion euros per year that is a massive increase. I also believe that this is additional money.

          As for the British armed forces I again have argued that the Army should have seven fighting divisions, three heavy and three light. Each division should have three brigades, one of the heavy divs should have two brigades of MBTs and one of IFVs, the other two heavies should have one brigade of MBTs and two of IFVs. This should form a rebuilt 1 Br Corp. 2 Br Corp should be built around moblilty so Boxer. Each brigade should be based on the rule of three, three Regts to a Brigade, three Battalions to a Regt and three fighting companies plus one HQ company to a Battalion. A rapid deployment division could be formed with Para’s Rangers, Gurkha’s and SAS. Support troops such as REME Sigs, Logistics etc should be incoporated into the units. It would mean an Army strength of about 130,000.

          RAF also needs a major uplift in fast fighter jet, ground attack aircraft and transport/intel gathering aircraft. Possibly the numbers of the first Gulf War would be suitable.I can’t work out numbers correctly but it looked like we had about 20 fast jet combat ready sqns at the time. To be honest I would not mind if the RAF got in addition to air supperiority aircraft three sqns of 3000 mile range low level supersonic bombers, (we all know what for).

          As for the RN two carriers, four LHDs, 6-8 MRSS, 30FFGs/DDGs, 4 SSBNs, 8 SSNs and 12 SSKs would be the ideal fighting fleet. The LHDs to be used to transport Army Armoured Battlegroup, one BG to an LHD you could call it the Army Seaborne Brigade. This could come under the Army’s rapid deployment division. The MRSS should or could be based on the Damen Crossover to carry 110 Royal Marines per ship whilst having a frigate capability.

          In many ways it looks like a lot, yet not really let start with the RN the LHDs would replace Albion, Bulwark and Ocean with one more, the MoD is looking at 6 MRSSs , the MoD is looking at a new T83, T26, T31 and T32. So a number such as 10 T83s, 10 T26s, 5 T31s and 5 T32s would do the trick. As for subs well an extra Astute plus the AIP subs would be extra. For the RN that would be an extra cost of £17.5 billion assuming that the MoD replaces the T45s with the T83s on a one for one base, it would be even less if the MoD is planning to replace Albion and Bulwark.

          RAF numbers I’m not sure about but I think an extra £10 billion would mean an extra 100 fast combat aircraft. So far that is £27.5 billion. If the Army got the same figure as the RN I am sure that the seven combat divisions is more that possible. That is a total of £45 billion half of the extra money that Germany has just announced for it defence. What need also to be understood is that if this money is spent in the UK the treasury will get about 40% back in tax returns, thousand of people will be come of the unemployment list saving more money to the treasury and with a 3.5% MoD budget would turn over quite nicely.

          If Germany one of the most anti war nations in present day Europe can invest through credit an extra 100 billion euros into defence then surly we one of the most active military nations in Europe could give the armed forces an extra 50 billion. We could have most of this in place by 2030 possibly even quicker. How you might ask, increase the T26 speed of build and an extra two ships, use existing designs for AIP submarines and LHDs, Sweden, Japan have good AIP sub designs and Spain has a good LHD design, Damen has the Crossover concept designs finished. For the Army reactivate all the Ch2s get possibly the CV-90 Mk5 instead of the never ending story of Ajax and buy into the new German MBT project. As for the RAF reactive Typhoon trenche 1 with upgrades, get new Typhoons, some extra sqns of F35s and some cheap and cheerful group attack capability a Jaguar/Harrier replacement. Possibly an update A-10. No matter if you agree or disagree the situation is this, we seem to have a madman in Russia, an idiot in North Korea and a China that is not trustworthy. This does not include nations such as Iran. So the defence hoiliday is over and with madman activating their nuclear deterance forces all bacause some politicians are angry that he has invaded a defenceless country is scary. I know what I would like to do with him if I got him in the sights of my old SLR, before you ask, 300yrds, 10 rounds 19mm group, nope didn’t miss, used to take bets on where to hit the target, arm, body head. Never lost, I think I still hold a record 10 shots of 100.9 from a max 101, the .1 is the inner dotted line of the bull.

          • I totally agree with the general thrust of your argument Ron….

            There are no quick fixes to be had here, modern equipment is complex and training not quick.

            An immediate response has to be to reverse the cuts, retain the Chally2 numbers, C130’s and tranche 1 Typhoon’s, pump money into ensuring the equipment we have is operationally available and build up reserves of ordnance and spares.

            They might approach certain individuals on the reserve list and tempt them back in with a new bonus system and selective engagement terms.

            The current (and immediate) shortage of personal in key areas will have to be addressed by use of the carrot, or activation of their reserve status, if they can’t be tempted.

            I’m certainly not suggesting a mass call up of reservists, but certainly several thousand across all three services will be needed in the short term.

            An emergency defence review, followed by a proper review to work out the actual size and composition of our Armed forces is needed and start the long road towards repairing 30 years of politically motivated damage.

            3.5% GDP is a sensible amount to spend on defence and if spent wisely, would be transformative.

          • John, I agree with what you are saying. I have often thought about how can we get the best manpower with limited resources. For example I went to a Army Apprenticies College in Harrogate Royal Signals. It took me three years of training before I graduated. A lot of investment and a lot of time. I also looked at the US and their Engineer Corp. They build bridges, dams in fact all forms of civil engineering works yet they are all attached to the armed forces when needed. So could we not do the same, an engineer corp doing normal projects but with military training. Do 6-10 years and the student loan is paid off. We could do the same with several trades, medical, communications etc. Study, work in civilian areas but under military call up

          • Ron – I seem to recall uk defence spends hovered at 4% of gdp in the late 1980,s? So perhaps this is the number we need to see a return too? There is no doubt the RAF is ridiculously understrength. I’ve often thought the F35A is reasonable value at $80 million vs the cost of Typhoon.

            I’m really liking your SLR idea!

        • Agreed. Even apart from Russia the world is far more dangerous & unstable. PRC is a present & growing menace. Extreme Islam expanding too even after several wars fighting them. USA teetered on brink of sanity with Trump praising Putin even after he invaded Ukraine, nearly dismantled American democracy spreading lies freely.

  44. OH Bugger Putin hasn’t just gone Tonto he’s gone off the reservation He’s just ordered his Nuclear deterrent forces to High Alert

      • Those of us who grew up in the cold war remember living under the constant threat of a nuclear exchange, it was the background of our lives for decades….

        Ah well, here we go again….

          • Which is WHY I keep cautioning about going to war in Ukraine to the hot heads that want NATO to fight in Ukraine vs Russia which could result in the end of all. 🙄

          • You’re right, of course. It’s not so easy to keep a cool head seeing those scenes coming out of Ukraine though. It feels wrong for us to be not coming to their aid directly even though it is the right course of action

        • Hi John I know what you mean I joined the Navy in 76 ,when ever we deployed in the back of your mind was if it goes hot what would happen to our families back in Blighty prior too joining had a school trip too are local fire station and listened to the 2 minute warning alarm that in the background beeped away constantly if the tone went constant it would of Goodbye cruel world

          • Like all dictators he’s probably got a few doubles but then again with his Vanity he’ll state he doesn’t need one as everbody loves admires and are 100% behind him he’d make a great couch study for psychiatric evaluation it would show his complex can be traced back too when he was left behind in Dresden during the fall of the Berlin Wall

  45. S**t just got real. Putin now getting nuclear forces to next level of readiness due to “NATO statements” . Now likely to be posturing but I hope we take out a second deterrent sun out there and start prepositioning a few t45 a around the country to at least have some protection if he does go fully mad and no one stops him on the Russia side.

    • Well if nukes can be used as a response to threatening language, we owe Putin quite a few of ours delivered the ugly way for all the lies & accusations thrown at Ukraine & the west recently. Bat crap crazy.

      • Nukes supposed to be the ultimate, last ditch deterrent. Not used as soon as ops get a bit sticky!!!! For all his claims against Ukraine & the west, he’s doing a wonderful job undermining all his credability.

  46. Good to see Germany increasing it’s defence budget. Did not except that so soon. I think more will be done on our side too. Although the US has by far the most capable and devastating military force on the planet, Ourselves and the EU must do more now. We have some superb kit coming online in the next few years, we just need a bit more of it. The route we are taking with more ISTAR, Cyber and Unmanned platforms is a sound one. But this crisis has shown we need more of the conventional kit too. I doubt we are going to see a sudden announcement about radically increasing the size of the Army, but maybe some cuts will be reversed, maybe some more urgency will be put into delivering the future equipment plan earlier. Maybe more than 148 Chally 2s will be upgraded to Challanger 3 ect. Some of the new weapon integrations for Typhoon, F35 and RN Escorts might be pushed through with some urgency. I’m purely speculating of course. Let’s see what happens. It’s just a shame it takes a crisis so close to home to concentrate politicians minds, and re-focus on defence.

    • Kinda depends how the war plays out. If somehow Ukraine manages to hold off Russia, then it will be used as a justification for no needing to increase expenditure.

      • I think this crisis is fundamentally changing how we view defence spending in EU. Even the foreign secretary this morning admitted we have all been to blasé about the threats.

    • Allied to any potential increased defence expediture; I do wonder what impact recent events will have on improving recruitment levels; In particular the army?

      • We usually get increased interest during times of conflict, surprisingly. The hard part is selecting the right people without lowering standards.

  47. I think many of the commentators on this site seem to be living in a past age where large tank battles in open country and heavy weapons decide wars. However, these items have limited utility in urban warfare. Even though Russia has a large army, if just five percent of of the Ukrain population mobilise Russia is vastly outnumbered. So this dated view that the Russians are bound to win looks clearly in error.

    • Yes and no. You’ll see the Russians are enjoying great success in open country, enough of that and the cities are effectively besieged.

      • Not many pics or vids of open country battlefields, a lot of pics/vids of convoy ambushes tho, russia has serious failures in securing its lines of supply.

      • Because the Ukrainians are giving are allowing them to charge around the countryside… so they can take out their logistics. That’s why so many Russian tank crews are stuck without food and fuel.
        They’re using defence in depth.

        • And also potentially stuck in the mud from a few pictures of abandoned Russian armour I’ve seen. One thing that struck me as very odd about this whole operation is the timimg. In the Russian Winter, sometimes personified as “General Mud”. An aspect of the climate of Russia and Ukraine that has contributed to military failures of several invasions of Russia in the past most notably by the Germans. The “rasputitsa”, which occurs with autumnal rains and spring thaws in Russia and make transport over unimproved roads difficult and would make open country warfare with heavy armour challenging.

          You would think if I knew this so would Russian strategists. Yet they pick the worst time of the year to launch their assault. Perhaps they thought it would disadvantage Ukraine forces more?

          • My understanding is that at this time of year the ground should be frozen and that’s why they chosen this to move this month – I believe there’s snow in eastern Ukraine.
            But I think they expected a lightning decapitation invasion, using the road system to race to the capital. Their plan was gone seriously off-track and rather than the world being awe-struck at the might of the Russian military, we’re dumbstruck at its inadequacies.

  48. Seems to me, given the shear amount of firepower available to the Russians, that they are making remarkably slow progress. Now some of that is down to the Ukrainian forces showing a lot of fight but that doesn’t explain everything. I just wonder about the Russian’s moral. The Russian soldiers must know they are the aggressors and they will also notice that the civilians are Slavs just like them. Do they really want to risk their lives in this crazy endeavour? The Ukrainians are estimating that the Russian forces have already taken 4000+ casualties.There have been a few reports of desertions and units sitting around doing nothing. Putin can have all the tanks and guns in the world but if the soldiers don’t want to fight then that’s it. I also wonder about what is going on in the Russian defence ministry. Their generals aren’t stupid, they know they can’t occupy the whole country and they know that they aren’t going to take big urban areas without flattening them and taking lots of casualties. Also this nuclear threat, it’s insane. A nuclear exchange with NATO nobody wins. Knowing all of this somebody somewhere is going to be thinking perhaps we need to sack the boss.

  49. I know we can’t but I so wish we could go in and help Ukraine. A proud nation, brave and damn right heroic. As we can’t fight directly let’s arm them to the teeth.

    As for Putin, the man has lost it. His forces are being battered, look demoralised, and will continue to take a pounding. I just hope they don’t revert to type and attack the civilian population further.

    I’d be very interested to hear how Ullya defends all this.

    • I don’t necessarily think Ulya needs to. I can’t imagine any of this mess sits well with the typical Russian. Say what you will about the barbarous murderers that run the country, but your average Russian is very much like you or I

    • I agree Rob. I don’t think we were right to declare at the start we wouldn’t send forces & even now a commitment of small forces to back up Ukraines defences could stop this. Although I’ve been surprised how bogged down Russia’s advance has got & their seeming moderation in their usual mass artilliary ahead of ground troops. So maybe the Russians themselves will pull Putin back from the brink. We’ll see.
      I think with the USA declaring no USA forces will get involved set the tone for the rest of Europe. USA has a strong isolationist tendancy. We could still have done more & the UK/French deterrents are there to counter any nukes Putin threatens with.
      Hoping & praying this resolves well for all, including the long suffering Russian people who’ll be hit hard by sanctions but get arrested if dissent.

  50. Apparently Russia have announced they have placed their nukes on “special alert”, if true, he has bloody truly lost it and needs to taken out.

    • Makes you think exactly what is going on in the Kremlin? If he has gone fruit loop than let’s hope somebody over there is brave enough to do the right thing.

      • It’s obviously seriously irrational to threaten nukes over rhetoric or a failed, illegal invasion of your own neighbors. So this is exactly the reaction he wants: to make us think he’s wildly irrational. I think it’s just part and parcel of their hybrid warfare bull***t. A virtual ‘deterrent’ if you will, cheap and low tech, makes him think he’s outsmarted everyone.

    • Thanks for the link. Note the fuel wagon in the column. Seems the Ukrainians are targeting all the Russian’s logistics. Yes the Russian’s have hundreds of tanks but without fuel and ammunition that means nothing.

    • I count 10 vehicles (APC/AFV) and a fuel tanker. It’s difficult to be accurate as some appear to have been completely ripped apart and thrown over a wide area. There’s no large ground craters so I’m guessing they were hit by anti-tank weapons rather than aircraft? Overkill but highly effective.

      So the “V” tag is for units targeting Kyiv.

  52. And here is a soldier’s prayer in the face of the enemy

    “Our Javelin which art in hand, hallowed be thy warhead, thy shaped charge come, thy will be done against the T-72 as it is on the T-80. Give us this day our daily top kill and forgive us our calibration errors as we forgive the Russian conscripts we melt. Lead us not into enemy fire zones but deliver us from napalm and fuel air explosives, for thine is the steady aim, the gently squeezed trigger and the glory, for ever and ever until impact”.

    Dean Taylor

      • Nice PP. I think a lot of us are 🙏 big time for Gods strength and “multiple-missile-strength” to the 🇺🇦 people. Hope they give the Russian forces a hiding. Belarus needs to be watched and dealt with in the same manner if they invade. Maybe the local populations will kick out both Putin and Lukashenko or send them to the frontline to face the fire. They seem to always talk big from a distance. If Russia goes nuclear I hope both those countries are aware of what a Western response might be and that there might be a “moral right” for a Western forces and or UN humanitarian intervention. We don’t like to see casualties on either side but the Russian/Belarusian leadership are on the very wrong side here. The sense of their own self preservation of these two leaders and their evil intents is clear to see. Strength to 🇺🇦 and may President Zelenskyy have “ the last laugh”…pun intended!

  53. We have got to be hoping against hope that any SSBN we have has either sailed or is preparing to sale along with as many other RN platforms as possible with Royal embarked.

    Putin is deranged with nuclear escalation and his forces pivoting towards Suwalki Gap.

    And surely, only a mad man would threaten nuclear strike.

  54. I’ve always felt that in amongst senior Russian military officers there were a lot of sensible and realistic professionals. I can see the situation arising where they realise mad vlad has truly lost his marbles and needs to be removed before he leads the country to destruction. Surely they’d not watch him lead their country into armageddon for no reason whatsoever!

  55. The Germans are sending Ukraine 1000 Panzerfaust 3 and Netherlands are sending another 400. If each one comes with 5 rounds by my reckoning that’s 7000 Russian armoured vehicles toasted. + UK NLAWS, + US Stingers. Little wonder Putin is being forced to the negotiating table. He either uses his heavy artillery and tactical nuclear weapons or he folds his hand.

    • Having watched Mr pucktin at the head of his table talk of upping the Anti I wondered whether he trusts his own staff who were seated right down the table from him hardly a cuddle round talk evidently either he doesn’t trust them to be close or someone has bad odour

      • There are street protests in Russia; reports of 5000 ‘contract’ soldiers rioting and refusing to cross into Ukraine. The Germans will build 2 plants to import LNG to wean themselves off Russian gas. I reckon Putin was betting on Germany’s dependence splitting the resolve of the west. It’s game over for him now. We just have to face down this nuclear bluff.

        • Having seem what Putins security police do with anti war protesters God help those 5000 “contract” troops if indeed they have refused tòo Fight

  56. The German Chancellor mentioned in his speech about buying F35 to replace Tornado. I’d say that’s the F18 order dead and buried.

  57. Although we are one of the few NATO countries to meet the 2% rule but perhaps it wouldn’t be such a bad idea to adopt what the Germans have just done and inject a very sizeable sum to increase our capabilities? Before anyone hits me for six re the example of Germany, I fully concur that they have taken the almighty p..s for decades and have been totally shamed over their responses to what is happening in Ukraine. That being said, what we have planned in the pipelines is not enough and will take far too long to come online.
    Could someone please explain to me what HMS Trent will do? While I think these are great vessels, they should not be operating in this environment. Perhaps an injection of cash as suggested would see an increase in T26 and additional T31s not withstanding the other services.

  58. Oh dear Mr Lupin has blamed remarks made by our Foreign secretary Liz truss for the reason that he upped his Nuclear forces I Think the comment was about radiation spike from his Cher knob and ball fallout something like that 😆

  59. What can i say, i have been watching the russian invasion and i am disgusted. Putin will just say the military build up by Nato is a threat to them, well if you did not invade a country there would be no build up. I have seen the anti war demonstrations in Russia and the many people arrested.The russian people in general are good people who like other people on the planet just want to work, take care of their famlies and life in peace. You the russian people have a chance to change things in Russia for the better, remember, the police can not arrest everyone there. Finaly to Putin, withdraw your troops, your killing women and children. you should be ashamed of yourself and later you will be judged.
    .

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