Labour MP warns Russia considers itself at war with UK

A Labour MP has warned that the UK risks becoming increasingly vulnerable to Russian aggression unless defence preparedness is accelerated, arguing that urgency has been lost despite clear warnings from senior military and intelligence figures.

Writing in LabourList, Graeme Downie, the Labour MP for Dunfermline and Dollar and chair of the Labour backbench defence committee, said the threat posed by Russia should be treated as immediate and systemic, not hypothetical. He argued that the UK’s strategic position and leadership role within NATO make it a prime target for hostile action.

Downie wrote that the recently published Strategic Defence Review had identified Russia as a “real and present threat” requiring a “whole-of-society approach to deterrence and defence”. He pointed to public warnings in recent weeks from both the Chief of the Defence Staff and the head of MI6, who have said the UK must prepare for the possibility of war.

According to Downie, “Russia already considers itself to be at war with the UK”, citing hybrid threats, cyber activity and pressure on NATO’s northern and maritime flanks. He argued that Britain’s geography does not insulate it from attack, noting the vulnerability of undersea infrastructure, cyber networks and long-range strike threats.

In the article, Downie contrasted the UK’s pace with that of other European states, highlighting Estonia’s invocation of NATO Article 4, Poland’s physical border preparations and Germany’s approval of tens of billions of euros in new military spending. He warned that failing to match that tempo could leave the UK exposed.

Downie also cautioned that political attention had drifted since Labour entered government, writing that the danger had been “normalised to the point that urgency has been lost”. He warned this risked the country “sleep-walking into a direct conflict with Russia” that many would later claim they did not foresee.

While praising the government for measures such as pay rises for service personnel, reforms to military housing and export successes for the defence industry, Downie argued these steps must now be matched by faster recruitment, training and equipping of the armed forces. He concluded by calling for a national conversation on defence and security, warning that the cost of failing to deter Russia would ultimately fall on British households through economic shocks, higher energy prices and reduced security.

Downie’s article was published on LabourList on 5 January and can be found here.