Lack of Irish security ‘back door threat to UK’ says report

A new report published today by Policy Exchange – backed by former Defence Secretaries Rt Hon Sir Michael Fallon KCB and Rt Hon Lord Robertson of Port Ellen KT – sets out how the deteriorating threat landscape, and persistent Irish security freeloading, require the UK to rediscover the strategic importance of Northern Ireland to its national security.

With the imminent restoration of Stormont, following the publication of the Government’s command paper ‘Safeguarding the Union’, the time is right to focus on the wider issues surrounding British-Irish security relations.

Russia once more poses a maritime threat to the Western Approaches to the British Isles, through and around which much transatlantic critical maritime infrastructure passes.

“The UK also faces a back-door threat from the growing Iranian, Russian and Chinese presence in the Republic of Ireland, a mounting challenge for a chronically deficient Irish security and intelligence apparatus. The Republic’s Defence Forces and security apparatus remain entirely inadequate, the result of a defence budget of less than 0.5% of GDP since 2000.

With polling indicating that Sinn Fein is a serious contender in the 2025 election, there seems little prospect of the Republic’s performance on security issues improving any time soon. The Party’s longstanding hostility to the UK, and opposition to firmer Irish commitment to Western security, mean that any Government it leads will be no friend to British interests. This report therefore calls for the UK Government to expand its naval and air presence in Northern Ireland for maritime patrol missions against Russian intrusion. It also urges the UK and its regional partners to unite and up the ante in pressing Dublin to do its fair share for collective security.”

Policy Exchange today argues that the external threats facing the UK are so acute as to demand renewed focus on the strategic importance of Northern Ireland. Russia is testing the vulnerability of the undersea cables and pipelines situated around our western flank.  Meanwhile, the expanding Russian, Chinese and Iranian presence in the Republic signals the intent to infiltrate, and interfere in, the transatlantic community.

These risks are compounded by the Republic’s reluctance to invest sufficiently in its military and security apparatus. Ongoing attempts to reform the Irish Defence Forces are crawling forward, which will leave the Republic incapable of policing its own waters – or keeping a watchful eye on potentially hostile elements embedded in Irish society – for years to come.

Policy Exchange’s report makes the case for reintegrating Northern Ireland as a vital component of British national security. It calls on the UK Government to restore the UK’s active naval and air presence on the western side of the Irish Sea, which has played a decisive role throughout history in fending off external threats. Such radical steps would demonstrate that the UK can no longer tolerate the unsatisfactory state of British-Irish security relations and should be backed up with forceful diplomatic pressure to encourage the Republic to do more for our collective security.

In a foreword in support of the report, Rt Hon Sir Michael Fallon KCB and Rt Hon Lord Robertson of Port Ellen KT write:

“As Defence Secretaries in different governments at different times, we know that little attention was paid to the security of the island of Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War. We therefore welcome this new report from Policy Exchange, which powerfully reasserts the strategic importance of Ireland, and especially Northern Ireland, to the UK’s national security … Russian intelligence ships and warships have been identified off the Irish coast and close to key transatlantic cables. The growing Russian, Iranian and Chinese presence in the Republic poses a backdoor threat to the United Kingdom itself.”

To bring Northern Ireland back into the UK’s national security arrangements, Policy Exchange’s report proposes the following recommendations:

• ENHANCE NAVAL AND AIR PRESENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND: The UK no longer has an adequate Royal Navy and RAF presence in Northern Ireland to police the Western Approaches, and out into the Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap. This leaves our critical maritime infrastructure wide open to Russian meddling. To restore our deterrence and defence, the Government must re-establish sufficient Northern Irish air and naval facilities to run regular maritime patrol missions around the northwestern flank.
• INTEGRATE NORTHERN IRISH BASES INTO THE NATIONAL DEFENCE COMMAND STRUCTURE: Scottish bases are over-stretched to protect the UK’s northern flank single-handedly. A restored strategic presence in Northern Ireland would alleviate this burden, whilst complicating Russian decision-making by offering two platforms for defensive deployment.
• APPLY GREATER PRESSURE ON THE REPUBLIC TO CONTRIBUTE TO COLLECTIVE SECURITY: For decades, the Republic has scarcely contributed to the collective security it enjoys with its partners. By moving unilaterally to defend its western flank, the UK will signal to the Republic that the status quo security arrangement is no longer acceptable. The Government should point to its Northern Irish naval and air expansion, and the mutual external threats both countries face, to urge the Republic to expedite its military and security reforms.
• ENCOURAGE ALLIES TO PRESS THE REPUBLIC INTO FASTER MILITARY AND SECURITY UPGRADES: The UK is not alone in being threatened by Irish intransigence over collective security, which compromises the security of all transatlantic maritime infrastructure. As the UK and its allies continue to invest more time and money into protecting this infrastructure, frustration at Irish reluctance is mounting. The UK Government should coordinate a united front, amongst regional partners with joint strategic interests in transatlantic maritime security, to push the Republic to play its part.
• KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR IRISH ENTRY INTO COLLECTIVE SECURITY INITIATIVES IN THE LONG RUN:  The Republic can no longer opt out of defending the world order from which it benefits. Indeed, it is already being probed as the potentially weak underbelly of the transatlantic community. The long-term goal must be for the Republic to integrate properly into the multilateral security initiatives which defend that community. When the Republic proves its newfound commitment to collective security, by developing a robust military and security apparatus, the UK Government should encourage it to participate further in multilateral initiatives, such as the Joint Expeditionary Force.

Policy Exchange author Marcus Solarz Hendriks comments :

“With Russia increasingly probing the vulnerability of transatlantic maritime infrastructure, the UK must take action to police its northwestern waters. As the Republic remains an unable and unwilling partner in the face of this threat, the UK Government must take matters into its own hands by restoring its air and naval presence in Northern Ireland. The penetration of Irish society by Russia, China and Iran also raises grave concerns over a back-door threat to the UK. The UK cannot do the job of the Irish state for it but – by fundamentally changing the nature of Northern Irish security arrangements  – it will send a strong signal to the Republic that our patience for its evasive commitment to collective security has worn thin.”

Click here for the report.