Earlier today ten surveillance aircraft from multiple NATO members, including Britain, flew over the Baltics and Ukraine.
The below graphic shows “a collection of NATO and Swedish ISR flights from December 30th, 2021 to January 18th, 2022.”
The following tweets, reproduced with permission, are part of a collaboration between two well known and well respected Twitter accounts. @ameliairheart tracks and details the activities of the aircraft of various armed forces and keeps people informed on what those aircraft are doing, she also has a blog that you can visit here. The blog is recommended reading. @Orion__int is a freelance open-source intelligence analyst known for combining 3D tracks with satellite imagery, you can find him on Twitter by clicking here.
Activity in the time period examined below focuses on Kaliningrad and Crimea, reports @Orion__int. According to @ameliaairheart, the following western surveillance aircraft were in the air today.
- USN P-8A (PK18x)
- US Army RC-12Xs (YANK01 & YANK03)
- USAF RC-135W (JAKE11)
- USAF E-8C (REDEYE6)
- British P-8A (GURNY01)
- British RC-135W (RRR7205)
- Swedish S100D (SVF604)
- Swedish S102B (SVF623)
- Norwegian 20ECM (NOW717H)
- German P-3C (GNY4500)
In this collaboration with @ameliairheart , we present a graphic showing a collection of NATO and Swedish ISR flights from December 30th, 2021 to January 18th, 2022. Activity in this time period focuses on Kaliningrad and Crimea. https://t.co/LPr7fmhE84 pic.twitter.com/GEhKKjDCJw
— Om Gothi | Orion Intel (@Orion__int) January 19, 2022
Context?
Currently, there is a massive western effort underway related to Ukraine in the face of a potential Russian invasion. Ignoring the surveillance flights, there’s also an effort to arm Ukraine.
According to a statement given by the Defence Secretary in the House of Commons on the 17th of January 2022.
“As of today, tens of thousands of Russian troops are positioned close to the Ukrainian border. Their deployment is not routine, and they are equipped with tanks, armoured fighting vehicles, rocket artillery, and short-range ballistic missiles. I can today confirm to the House that, in light of the increasingly threatening behaviour from Russia, and in addition to our current support, the UK is providing a new security assistance package to increase Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
We have taken the decision to supply Ukraine with light, anti-armour, defensive weapon systems. A small number of UK personnel will also provide early-stage training for a short period of time, within the framework of Operation ORBITAL, before then returning to the United Kingdom. This security assistance package complements the training and capabilities that Ukraine already has, and those that are also being provided by the UK and other Allies in Europe and the United States. Ukraine has every right to defend its borders, and this new package of aid further enhances its ability to do so.
Let me be clear: this support is for short-range, and clearly defensive weapons capabilities; they are not strategic weapons and pose no threat to Russia. They are to use in self-defence and the UK personnel providing the early-stage training will return to the United Kingdom after completing it.”
Counter strike?
Is the general consensus on here that Russia will invade, or they’re just sending a message?
This seems to be getting a lot of attention on the news recently, but it’s hard to tell (for me anyway), what’s really going on.
General consensus is that Putin has backed himself into a corner where he looks weak if he doesnt get something for the effort. It comes down to whether he is more worried about damage to his own public image backing down or war.
Thanks for the answer. Like everyone else, I hope he backs down.
His problem is that he has backed himself into a corner, and unless he can hold up some meaningful concessions from NATO he is going to have to use the troops. That will mean Russian conscripts coming home in bodybags even if he overruns the whole of Ukraine, and he won’t look too good with the home crowd. And I don’t think NATO a is going to make concessions so we are in a very dangerous place. And with lots of ELINT assets being used we are going to be gathering a heck of a lot of intelligence on their… Read more »
Russian conscripts are no longer used on the front line. It is Ukraine that has thousands of conscripts.
Fighting the hard fight Ivan I see lol , still I’ll go with what AB said SPETNAZ is of only the quality of a normal British infantryman .
Hi Dave, pleased to see you are monitoring me. Not something I’d really considered but, as they say, there is an element of quality in quantity.
Well for person like yourself Ivan who thinks Salisbury was done by the UK government ignoring the obvious facts ,you do not have much credibility lol but keep on commenting , its amusing.
No conscripts being used , but professional troops.
And this is my fav, even though JohninMK has so much chuff and garbage to sift through:
JohninMK
11 months ago
Reply to dave12
I agree totally with DM. As I have already posted, if Russia goes in, which it will only do if provoked, it is likely to be over in hours with no invasion. The militia in the Donbas, fully trained and equipped, will be capable of sorting out the UA after that rain of death. Our QR forces wont have even got to Brize.
Yes, the man in MK is certainly good at peddling the official line, but sometimes, actually mostly!, it doesn’t bear much scrutiny. When this report came out 9 months ago I think most of us thought it would be over quickly, and not in a good way, how wrong we were!
The next few weeks and months are going to be interesting.
I think he is up for reelection.
Hi Jack, I read an article recently that suggested that this posture and the recent Russian security demands are a reflection of Russia’s view that the West is becoming increasingly threatening to Russia vis a vis NATO expansion. From the West’s point of view NATO is defensive in nature and as such poses no threat to Russia. However, the article was posturing that all of this is about Russia trying to get the US to agree to a new security norm for Russia, in effect a new ‘order’ in Europe, one that would allow the US to refocus on the… Read more »
Good summary. NATO hasn’t been defensive for a long time, unless Afghanistan etc are regarded in that light. Its moves into the WP countries and the Baltics broke promises made in the early 1990s and removed what Russia regarded as ‘buffer’ territory, a Russia paranoid about invasion from the West. It is acting now, as it is in a strong position, dealing primarily with the US, as it recognises that the rest of NATO will just do what it is told. Sadly it is not just the publeic but some here who have no real clue as to what is… Read more »
That all sounds very nice from a Russian point of view but you cant really expect the rest of the world to believe that Russia feels threatened by NATO’s admission of former WP countries when Russia annexed Crimea? Defelcting this fact by pointing fingers at the West in regards to Iraq, Afganistan, Vietnam etc is easily seen through by anyone with half a brain. For Russia, what about Lybia? Syria? Mali etc; hypocracy at it’s finest Personally I wouldn’t object with going to war with Russia in the long run, great wars happen every 100 years or so, it’s the… Read more »
Other than Afghanistan I don’t think there has been a NATO action. Member states have been involved in conflicts or other coalitions but any assertion by the original poster that NATO has been going around the world on the offensive is incorrect.
USA is NATO, so Expat aren’t you forgetting the bombing in the Baltics, particualarly Serbia? Was THAT defensive on the USA’s part? There are many more that could be called “False Flag” conflicts as easily as not…. and now a suggestion that Russia is becoming a copycat false flag wise.
The west is hypocritical to the extreme. It rants about Russia and the Crimean penninsula and ignores Kosovo or Israel and blithely say “they aren’t the same”. Sorta like the Austrian Anschluss!!
To be candid your post comes across as anti West and anti.American. Yes I had forgotten that NATO lead the Serbia campiagn. But the post I responded to the poster was try to create an impression NATO has lead a number of offensive actions there’s intfact 2 that could be debated. What’s Isreal got to do with NATO offensives Isreal was formed before NATO existed. And perhaps a list of false flag events you speak of would be useful. Using America failings to suggest Russia is somehow in the right is not a very strong argument, . You’ve pointed out… Read more »
Wellness to say that when prices skyrocket for gas etc , very stupid dumb comment.
It should be pointed out that at no point did Baltics make such a promise to Russia as John suggests nor would they. That is nothing more than a propaganda lie. Baltics chose their way during the 1st WW and reaffirmed that choice when declaring their re-independence from the collapsing Soviet Union. Baltics were punished for their choices by Russia by putting them in the extremely dire economical position right the following winter and also by withdrawing transit etc contracts later – the latter was intended to have Baltics run back to Russia, but served instead as a strong incentive… Read more »
No obligation of a free democratic countries to be a buffer states!
Indeed there isn’t but if history is any guide they don’t have much say in the matter.
History has shown that the present Russian excuse to enter Ukraine is exactly as Hitler ‘reasoned’ to start WW2. And you know the outcome of that!
👍
The fact is those countries no longer seem to want to be buffer states and no amount of politicking will change that. No matter what may have been agreed, or thought was agreed, these countries are independent nations and get to choose their own direction, something Putin and his bent cronies need to realise!
I wish them luck because if Russia wanted to roll over them they would. But I doubt they do, its just a distraction from their main objective, get richer.
But what gives Russia the right to do so? And Poland, certainly isn’t the pushover many may think. Geographically they are unlucky but the modern Polish forces would make Russia suffer to a serious extent. Don’t you think those nations have a right to be free and not be threatened by Putin and his nonces?
I agree that Poland’s military is pretty dam good and a good reason for Russia to leave them alone. We all should have a right to be free but sometimes our leaders have different views.I am not aware that Russia is currently actually threatening any country at the moment apart from Ukraine and that’s only if they were to attack Donbas.
Just intrigued as you said if Russia could roll over them they would. While we should never underestimate an enemy or a potential enemy, I do think the old Soviet “buffer” states are also underestimated and would give a good enough account of themselves as to make Putin rethink.
There is no doubt that the Ukraine will never be able to defend itself from Russian on its own. Putin had once told a Swiss diplomat, off mike, ‘you do know that if I want to I can be in Kiev by tomorrow lunchtime?’
Try holding ground with a population that hates you , thats the hard part.
It is a guess bit I doubt that the Russians have any plans to attack anywhere unless forced to in Ukraine. With modern munitions, especially Russian, military strategy and tactics are rather different to the old way of fighting.
The Poles are very well equipped and very well trained.
They also don’t like Russia very much.
It would very hard for Germany to stuff up shipping weapons to Poland given past history…….
Anybody who thinks Russia can just stroll into Ukraine with no bother really needs their head read! All those conscripts you dismiss are also volunteers who will defend their country come what may.
Two problems with your comment. Russia’s objective of stopping the attack on Donbas can be achieved without ‘strolling’ in. They will use missiles/rockets etc to bring Ukraine to its knees without going in as such. Second, conscripts are not volunteers and generally speaking do not want to be there. That is why in the fighting of 2015/16 there were SBU units behind the front lines to kill sorry discourage deserters.
Deserters leave the battlefield to go back home. They have far more incentive to stay when the battlefield is their home. Never under-estimate the people fighting for their family, homes and freedom.
Also bombing people into submission from a safe distance is a strategy which has been used before but doesn’t always work.
Does Russia really want to get bogged down. Does he think that will end well?
Most of the Ukrainian conscripts are not in their home, they often come from hundreds of miles away in the north and west Ukrainian speaking ares not where they are in Russian speaking areas. They are certainly not fighting for their homes etc. It is actually the population of the Donbas that are fighting for their homes and their language.
They are part of an Army defending their country from military agression. The whole country. If the residents in Donbas wanted independence there are ways of achieving that peacefully in the modern era. Let’s face it we are financing weapons for Ukraine. If Putin miscalculates we could all easily be at war. Following Hitler’s playbook on constantly nibbling away at neighbouring countries, which ended badly for everyone, is probably not going to end well for us either.
The Ukrainian Army is not positioned to defend their country, they are positioned to take back the Donbas by force. If Ukraine had implemented the Minsk Protocol this would not have happened. Russia want Ukraine under its wing like a whole in the head and if they tried that would be the end of Putin.
Russia parking a large force on several boarders is an invasion force for the whole of Ukraine. Donbas is 45% ethnic Russian? Nobody will win running that area. Russia should withdraw it’s forces. Ceasefire with semi autonomy with a NI style parliament with oversight from Russia and Ukraine to keep everyone happy. Ukraine withdraw it’s forces and join NATO.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO neither was Georgia. If you were Swedish or Finnish what conclusion would you draw from that ?
That I would want to stay out of it, as both Sweden and Finland have now said.
You keep telling yourself that. 😉
I am not alone.
Yes, you probably have a few Vladimirs with you too for support.
On this website apart from the few naïve you are very much alone Ivan lol.
He has a very short memory indeed!
Is that why Finland stopped buying Soviet jets and has now ordered F-35s? Because it wants to ‘stay out of it’? What are you on about?
What has buying F-35 got to do with joining NATO?
It means Finland has distanced itself completely from Russia and is arming itself against any Russian wild ideas in the future. It is also regularly participating in NATO ecercises.
Promises were also made to Ukraine from Russia on surrender of its nukes. Those promises clearly have been broken. You say Afghanistan etc but what are the etc’s Iraq was a coalition that involved some countries who also happen to be in NATO, not a NATO action. It’s also forgotten that a large number of those buffer countries were effectively under Russian control for a significant part of the 20th century and certainly don’t want to return to that, hence their desire to be part of a security pack like NATO. They probably would have formed their own had NATO… Read more »
It would be much more accurate to say Putin has grip on power that is under threat from within and projects this westwards for fearing of losing it. Just consider his career and all becomes much more clear. An invasion of Ukraine would be a disaster for him and most of all for all Russians; retreating with nothing to show for this epic grandstanding would spell his end.
With your own ‘logic’, then Latvia and Lithuania should consider themselves threatened by Belarus and ask NATO to invade the country, to keep a buffer between them and Russia.
Where/when were the Baltic states “promised” to Russia?
They were part of the Soviet Union. There is no indication that Russia wants them, it doesn’t need them as a ‘buffer’ as the other side of them is the sea and Kaliningrad is nearby.
Then why are you claiming NATO reneged on promises? When I ask you about these promises, you dodge the question.
The Baltics were occupied territory, not just under the Soviets, but the Russian empire before that. Now they have every right to make whatever treaties they want. There’s every indication Russia wants destabilization, in the Caucasus, Ukraine and Transnitria in particular, and the rest of Europe in general. Why shouldn’t Finland and the Baltic states be afraid of the grey zone warfare being undertaken by Russia?
I would be if I were them.
And if you want to talk about broken promises, Russia and Britain were amongst the signatories of the Budapest accords in 1994, which agreed as its first article: 1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine. which of course included Crimea. In return the Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal. Russia having violated the… Read more »
I do believe you are living in a parallel universe, the reason Mr Putin is kicking off now is because Nato has never been so week after years of cutbacks in defences, If you look at the ex WP countries that are now in Nato they chose to enter Nato because they know what it is like to live under the Russian jack boot and wear at the time afraid of a resurgent Russia which as it turns out they were not far wrong. If Mr Putin carries on the way he seems intent on going then it is my… Read more »
It is not expansion if free and independent countries chose to join. Russia has a history here and it is worth while refreshing memories. I have read recently that Finland, once a duchy of Imperial Russia nd twice involved in wars with the Soviet Union is considering joining Nato. If true that gives one much more of an appreciation of how serious all this is. The Finns don’t flap.
Hi Barry, I agree with your point totally. Finland has more reason than most to be concerned by an agressive Russia and I for one would support their accession to NATO. Having said that, I can appreciate that from the Russian point of view this might look like Western ‘pressure’. There was a story a few years ago (actually quite a few years ago now) that came out after the events in question. When President Reagan was campaigning for his second term he made a very agressive spearch about the ‘evil empire’, i.e. the Soviet Union. He was playing to… Read more »
1983 I believe was the year
Oleg Gordievski. Still alive and well.
The Finnish PM has said that they don’t want to join, the Swedish PM said similar.
Glad the UK has the RC-135’s up and running with the P-8’s. Wish the E-7’s were available to go.
Talking about E7 AWACS why on gods earth with Russia about to attack a soverign nation of tens of millions of democratic free peoples are we about to sell E3Ds to Chile. We really have lost our marbles.
AEW is a completely different role. These are intelligence gathering assets. We haven’t lost our marbles we are investing in new kit instead of keeping old tech going. A capability gap is unfortunate, but it’s one we can live with.
No, the MoD have realised that in a ‘real’ war they are too vulnerable to long range SAMs and BVR AAM to be of any real use. They were brilliant when it was easy to move our fighter controllers to where they were needed, rather than build new ground control facilities. Now we are going to have to relocate those airborne teams into ground bunkers, like they used to be.
Ha. Lots and lots of bunkers were also stupidly got rid of from 91 on.
But others remain.
The CRCs at Buchan, Neatishead were mothballed, Boulmer is still NATO CRC.
NADOC and the other top ones still current, plus the unacknowledged ones.
Crazily, the southern CRC ended up at Scampton in a surface building. One Russian missile and, gone, if they get info on which building.
Were your parents in any of them? Or just the ATC side?
Indeed Dad was, never ATC always FC, OC of both Uedum (now a NATO CAOC) and Bukit Gombah (Singapore) intermixed with Group posts, Uxbridge, Bentley Priory, Rudlow Manor (Box) and Ouston/Leconfield). I have memories of going down the ‘hole’ at Uedum and a helicoper ride from Leconfield tp Patrington, one of his sites. Dad took over BG as a new radar site from Marconi in 1963 so, as a keen gardener, shot down to their ‘Kew Gardens’ and proceeded to landscape the scalped hilltop. In my own right I have been in bunker 1940s style, to see the… Read more »
I’ve never been in any of them, despite my interest!
No chance of going in the replacement at HW, which was built in 85, although Sky were given a tour a few years ago, the first ever for that site.
I only got in either because Dad was the boss or as a computer salesman. Went in the Ops Room at Laarbruk in 82 as well on an info finding sales trip.
Lol..sparked a few memories…Buchan..probably had the coldest football pitch in the UK.
The many UK RAF,RAF-USAF bases closed down & sold off for housing etc may come back to bite us. Always thought it foolish to get rid of them.
I wonder if it would be useful to identify posters nationalities on here? There seem to be Russian trolls about such that I’m highly suspicious of & tend to ignore new posters, but it also harms new genuine posters if Russiabots have made us(or at least me) suspicious. It harms those who have alternate views to the mainstream here.
Frank wrote: “”There seem to be Russian trolls about such that I’m highly suspicious of & tend to ignore new posters, “” Yeah, Ive noticed that for a while now. Here’s one I saw from Yesterday from another board from a lady who ids as Lynn Atkinson Nitpicky!NATO is aggressive and fostering unrest in previous USSR countries in order to threaten the borders of Russia herself. NATO has no ability and should shut up and sit down. The activity of NATO in The Balkans has been a disgrace!You have admitted that 2 countries bordering Russia have joined NATO – NATO is… Read more »
More likely St Petersburg, that’s where the ‘Internet Research Agency’, which does most of Putin’s trolling, is based.
It was Leuchars that struck me as being a huge loss and not much value, compared to say Greenham Common, as housing. More examples of the Government of the day selling off its assets, the family silver so to speak, to spend the money.
Well, there is a NATO pool of AWACS that can be used to fill the gap. But, I agree that it will be good when the UK has the Wedgetail in service adding to NATO’s inventory of aircraft.
Hope one day the UK can add one or two more Wedgetail aircraft to the current 3 on order. Will see.
Firstly, an incursion is about all Putin would manage before the consequences fell on Russia. The is nothing they would gain except worse; think about it. It is hard to say, but in taking punishment now, Ukraine would be the last meal of a broken dictator. After the Russians, the next biggest losers would be Germans. Their Ostpolitik is already a wreck. NATO would be strengthened by a factor the Alliance could only dream about once.
Elint surveillance with real-time air to ground surveillance. On a large scale. Makes one think we will know when the invasion has started before Putin.
Yes, Situations like this really show how potent NATO is when all working together including close allies like Sweden.
Poland also had their PZL M28B Bryza 1R up yesterday. Yes I know its a transport aircraft, but the Bryza version is with a radar ASR 400 and Link 11.
Quite Ron. Many overlook whom else is in the firing line. I have seen Russia from Norway; pretty close. I bet they are on alert. Sweden and Finland, the Baltic States, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania and parts of the Balkans, Black Sea. Lots of nervous people with only Biden to lead them. Not great is it?
The irony here is that if the Russians decide to take Ukraine, whole all partial (though as many have pointed out the repercussions are the same so might as well grab all of it). Then there fears come true regarding missile systems in Poland and the Baltic’s, obviously nato probably won’t respond militarily but will have no choice especially in Poland to deploy.
Half of Ukraine was originally Poland, in a similar way that half of Poland was once German and back and forth it went for centuries.
Lviv, however was Poland’s second largest city, annexed and given to Ukraine. Lots of Polish history and blood in that part of the world and over 1 million Ukraine peoples now living in Poland, some are refugees from the East and others as migrants.
If Russia invades, do we think Poland will just sit around and let ethnic Poles and and its old cities in Western Ukraine fall into Russian hands?
Indeed, any attack practically guarantees every other “buffer” state joins NATO & makes the Rest of Europe wake up & rebuild their forces to resist Russia. That & the shedload of sanctions/measures added to Russia’s woes. Russia has only itself to blame if every ex-satallite can’t bare being under their control again. If Putin wants to use the “protection” of Russian ex-pats, then the whole world could end up in eternal wars if every nation took that stance: Poland for all the Poles & Polish territory stolen by Stalin in 1939; PRC all the Chinese who fled the CCP the… Read more »
Lviv was founded by the Ukrainian prince Danylo Galitsky and named after his Son. just check this fact
+ Western Ukraine was ruled by Poland for about 2 centuries, but never was originally Polish
I thought that was the case, thanks for the info!
Does nobody think that China is colluding with Russia? It dawns on me that they both want to “retake” independent sovereign states and if they were to coordinate those invasions the west wouldn’t know where to look first! There are those that say if Russia gets away with it then China will follow suit but who’s to say they won’t both strike simultaneously?
More equipment is on the way.
“European allies have what they need to move forward on additional security assistance from Ukraine in the coming days and weeks,” said a State Department spokesperson.
“We are in close touch with our Ukrainian partners and our NATO Allies on this, as well as utilizing all available security cooperation tools available to us including expediting authorized transfers of US origin equipment from other allies and partners via our Third Party Transfer process and Excess Defense Articles from DoD inventories, among other mechanisms.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/politics/us-transfer-weapons-ukraine/index.html
Sky News!
“George Allison, of the UK Defence Journal, a website focused on defence news, posted on Twitter a time-lapse of the flights, which he said began on Monday.”
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-invasion-fears-as-britain-sends-2-000-anti-tank-weapons-to-ukraine-12520950
Well! My sister went up to London and said ‘David, take my car keys and give mum a run out in the Lakes.’
I’m from Cumbria and just as eggs are eggs, when conflict is coming, the jets start flying – and today there were multiple jets flying over: F15s and transports.
Putin is of the opinion that after Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and his appalling popularity ratings at home that he won’t risk a face to face troop risk over Ukraine. He is also underrating the risk from NATO. He is seriously wrong on both counts and has now painted himself into a corner. A very dangerous situation for Putin who is now damned if he does by confronting powerful committed forces and damned if he doesn’t by home town opinion who will question his judgement and won’t be happy with massive sanctions and lots of body bags. Autocratic rulers… Read more »
peace!!!!!
Youtube “Monkey Werx US” covers this in his Aviation Tracking Videos.