Estonia has accused Russia of mounting its most aggressive airspace incursion of the year after three MiG-31 fighter jets crossed into Estonian skies on 19 September and remained for around 12 minutes before being intercepted by NATO aircraft.
The jets entered over the Gulf of Finland with their transponders switched off, according to Estonian media, and flew close to Tallinn before Italian F-35s scrambled to intercept.
NATO spokesperson Allison Hart confirmed the response, describing the incident as “yet another example of reckless Russian behaviour and NATO’s ability to respond.”
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires in Tallinn to issue a formal protest, calling the incursion “unprecedentedly brazen.” He added that “Russia has already violated Estonia’s airspace four times this year, which in itself is unacceptable. But today’s violation must be met with a swift increase in political and economic pressure.”
The incident follows a pattern of recent Russian activity across NATO’s eastern flank. On 10 September, more than a dozen drones entered Polish airspace, prompting Warsaw to invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described that episode as “an unprecedented violation of Polish airspace” and warned it brought Europe closer to open conflict. Romania has also reported Russian drones entering its airspace this month, with fragments from earlier strikes in Ukraine repeatedly landing on Romanian territory.
Estonia has responded by launching unplanned military exercises to test its readiness for further violations. Lieutenant General Andrus Merilo, Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, said the drills reflect growing concerns over Russian tactics, adding that “resupply, readiness, and rapid response must all be tested under the assumption that airspace incursions will continue.”
The European Union also tied the incident to its wider sanctions policy. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on 19 September that “again and again, President Putin has escalated, and in response, Europe is increasing its pressure,” as Brussels unveiled new restrictions targeting Russian energy and financial transactions.
Russia has not commented publicly on the Estonian violation. With NATO reinforcing its air posture under Operation Eastern Sentry, allied fighters from France, Germany, and Denmark are already on rotation in the region.
Shoot them down.
MIG31s carry the kinzhal ALBM s well. They’re doing a test run but not on Talinin.
Time they were given some Sidewinder therapy.
Turkey did
They tried to shot down a RAF Rivet Joint a few years ago and fired two air to air missiles at our aircraft when it was in international airspace.Since then our Rivet Joints have had have a fighter escort. If we entered Russian airspace our aircraft would be fired at.
I remember that incident, 2023 I believe? There have been other occasions where aircraft have been threatened, and wasn’t a drone FUBAR’ed with jet fuel or whatever?
With tensions as they are, 12 minutes before interception is shabby really. Some may of course say ’12 minutes, they were intercepted, they buggered off, so no harm done’. An acceptable outlook, considering a CAP would incur huge costs.
I heard elsewhere the incursion was twelve minutes, so not sure they were intercepted after 12 minutes. If so yes concerning as they should have been well aware of their approach well before then.
it is much worse! Russia fires on civilian airliners , remember MH17 in 2014? almost 300 innocents dead
So did they flee back to Russian airspace before NATO jets were in range to down them?
The NATO response needs to be faster, though flying a constant CAP over NATO borders is going to cost a lot in terms of fuel and airframe lifespan.
Is Russia testing NATOs responsiveness to incursions?
Or is Russia hoping that such incursions will divert SAM batteries to Baltic nations instead of going to Ukraine.
Or both?
I wonder if Russia is trying to provoke an incident to pander to the domestic audience and cover/hid the bad news coming out of Ukraine.
They don’t need an incident to feed to their domestic audience. The Kremlin completely controls all media in Russia, and have already convinced the population that they are fighting NATO forces.
True, but authoritarian nations can be very unpredictable in their geopolitical drivers..we think democracy can be chaotic..but the fear of offending the floating voter generally keeps democracies from going bonkers ( baring a few obvious exceptions).
It’s worth watching Berlin Station Series 3 about Russian intrusion into Estonia to realise we’re on a knife edge at the moment
I have several Estonian friends so I know. Ironically most of them are ethnic-Russians, which is the excuse Putin would use for invading – 25% of the population is. However just because someone is ethnically Russian doesn’t make them keen on giving-up Estonian democracy for a Russian dictatorship.
Putin views seizing Estonia as essential for securing St Petersburg, just as he sees seizing Lithuania as essential for securing Kaliningrad. Having seized those two, Latvia is a fait d’complete.
I think you are proportioning some strategy to the Russian’s behaviour whereas we already know from their war in Ukraine that their air force cannot coordinate a unified air dominance strategy and it’s largest formation is a 4 jet unit sent to attack X target. Frequently missing said target.
No I think this is Russia demonstrating it’s incompetence by provoking NATO. If these aircraft are within NATO Territorial airspace they should be challenged, warned and then if not adhering to the instructions then shot down. That is the law.
What’s more worrying is we are one miscalculation away from a war and the UK has spent the last 3 years doing buggering all to prepare. Our armed forces continue to be cut at a time the opposite should be rapidly occuring.
Our numbers of jets is appallingly low
Our AWACS fleet virtually non existent
Our frigate and destroyer fleet far too few and our submarine force a shrunken memory of what it should be.
The Army is in an appalling mess and utterly unfit to face our enemies on the battlefield.
Our GBAD is virtually non existent and we have a grand total of 14 Archer SPGs and a few dozen light 105mm guns and that’s it for artillery until RCH155 comes along sometimes next century.
Warrior is outdated and outclassed and needs replacing
Ajax is slowly coming into service late and massively over budget
And we only have around 200 C2s left of which only 148 are going to be upgraded to C3 standard.
In short utter bollocks and needs sorting out before we get militarily defeated by an opponent not afraid to invest in hard power.
TL;DR
Very true words we are in such a mess .God help us 🙏
I agree with every word. Our great good fortune is Russia is struggling even more than we are. I do have doubts abot western resilience; I have no doubt the Finns and Baltic States would defend themselves to the best of their abilities alongside Poland. I have less confidence the remainder if it matters turn kinetic.
Indeed my concern too. Beyond professional forces how many would be willing to fight, indeed recent polls suggest very few. That might be what the Russians feel gives them an otherwise illusionary advantage and lead to over reach like in Ukraine they can’t get out of.
But other than that… ?
Absolutely disagree Mr Bell. They should be shot down.
Only thing Russians understand.
The worrying thing is the escalation and having lived in Latvia from 2013, Russian aggression is nothing new, however, nor is NATO appeasement.
Russian incursions need decisive action and that means killing them. All they understand.
A 12 minute incursion into NATO airspace, with the tension levels as they are. You almost have to wonder if the Kremlin is looking to get one of its jets shot down.
It would play well to the domestic audience, increase the fear of NATO and help Putins control of the population. The Pokrovsk offensive is going no place fast infact Ukraine has just made a pushback..so. Maybe Putin wants an anti western “hatred” story to cover the issue.
I think you are correct (again) Jonathan. This is the result of yet more failure on Putin’s part. He needs to provoke in order to obscure.
It seems Russia May now be trying to buy back air defence systems it’s sold to other nations, it’s even trying too get Turkey to sell it the two S-400 systems back to it. This all smells a bit like Russia barking to hide its profound problems.
I hope NATO makes a better offer to Turkey, as I’m sure Ukraine would happily accept them.
Or here is a better idea. Turkey just keeps them. Why would any NATO country sell military hardware to Russia. It shouldn’t.
I’d disagree, Ukraine needs all the air-defence batteries it can find. And while the S400 has proven to be nowhere near the hype, it should be able to deal with Iranian-designed drones.
That’s a good idea, Ukraine knows how to use them has the logistics in place, two more batteries of s-400 would be pretty significant.
I wonder if Putin has told China and North Korea what is plans are ? IF he keeps playing this dangerous game it’s only a matter of time before a Mug or Flanker pilot get a NATO Missile inbetween is legs .Putin most realize he can’t win Ukraine by now he’ll never win a Conventional fight with NATO and of course if Nukes go off its curtains for the world ? Or is happy to live in is Bunker .
Sorry that’s MIG ( MUG ) 🙄
Russian knows international rules.
However, it flouts them.
Board their grey oil tankers and seize them.
Shoot down immediately any incursions into NATO airspace.
And at any given opportunity, kill Russians, it is all they understand.
If there was ever an admission that Putin’s losing in Ukraine this is it
Anybody seen the flight path on the MiGs?
I gather they entered Estonian airspace near the island of Vaindloo. Which is closer to Tapa, the main NATO and U.K. base than to Tallinn.
And yet again we look weak and scared. Make no mistake, looking weak and scared just makes a bully like Putin feel bigger, stronger and braver, it’s a recipe for disaster. He only understands strength so start showing some! If we have a border then fucking defend it like you mean it!
It’s difficult to see what Putin gains from prodding NATO into a lethal reaction. He can’t gain military superiority over lowly Ukraine, so he must know he hasn’t got a chance against NATO, especially if Trump eventually accepts he’s being played for a fool.
I wonder if this is why NATO are keeping their heads down. They are protecting Putin from Putin, if you see what I mean. As long AS NATO know that, if it does all goes belly up, they can deal with it, why not just take the crap and get through another non-lethal week? Sure, Putin gets to beat his breast again but bottom line so what?
bullies need to be pushed back! goes for Trump.and Putin
Europe needs to grow some balls and draw a line in the sand. cross NATO airspace with military aircraft and they will get shot down.
Putin won’t stop until we’re prepared to stop him. Until we’re ready to draw a line in the sand backed by force we’re just fiddling while Rome(UKR in this case, Baltics next) burns. All we’re doing is saying these things are awful, with no clear demonstratioin of will to act accordingly. This just encourages all our enemies to keep pushing the boundaries. Tell Donald it’s Putin & himself who are playing at WW3, not those who dare defend themselves against attack.
As for Donalds Nobel peace prize ambitions, threatening to annex allies & neighbours while enabling war criminals & genocide somehow doesn’t cut it, especialy while peresecuting domestic dissent etc.
It is tempting to think this is all very much by design; China want Taiwan, USA could be diverted in that direction and pulled away from the European theatre, leaving Europe to contemplate its navel. But before that happens both Russian and more importantly China need to know how NATO-Europe would react to any incursion, so a few prods here and there, test the water, get some intel, then BANG, China takes Taiwan and Putin gets his “Beloved Soviet Union” in return. Classic divide and conquer it has been done many times before.
Putin isn’t getting his beloved Soviet Union back any time soon. Most expensive soviet block countries can’t stand Russia, they maintain cordial relations but wouldn’t fight for Putin Vs NATO
Russia can probably only rely on Belarus and maybe 1-2 of the Stans plus of course Iran (defeated militarily by the Israeli air force) North Korea (large numbers of below standard equipment and personnel) and China (gearing up for war Vs the USA and it’s allies in the Western Pacific.
If Xi and Putin’s plan is to divide and then conquer they are both deluded. An alliance of USA, NATO, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Ukraine, Phillipines etc etc have them overmatched.
One thing is for sure Putin is deluded into thinking he has a chance….that makes WW3 likely.
Not expensive. Expansive ex soviet block
At present we might have an overmatch. But the decline in American military power happening simultaneously with the massive expansion in Chinese military power means that within 5 years China will have the edge.
China is building 150+ 5th gen fighters per year, while retiring only small numbers of very old jets. US is building maybe 60 F-35s, plus maybe 20 F15EX and 20 F/A-18E/F per year. And it is retiring probably 50% more legacy 4th gen fighters than that annually, so overall declining numbers.
US Navy is in even worse condition, with the surface fleet set to shrink by at least 10-15% in the next 5 years; and the sub fleet to shrink by more like 20-25%. China is building 6-8 major suface combatants per year, and could easily achieve more, whilst USN can barely get 2 per year.
In an all out war scenario China’s industrial base dwarfs the US and Europe combined. We’d need to win the war in the first 6 months, and I’m not sure we could achieve that in 5 years time.
Shoot them down and then use the Russian tactic of denying you did anything.