Fourteen of the twenty-four Hawk T1 jets still on the books of the Royal Air Force have used up more than eighty per cent of their fatigue index, the Ministry of Defence has said.
The figures came in a series of written questions submitted by the Conservative MP for Huntingdon, Ben Obese-Jecty, who has been pressing the Ministry of Defence in recent weeks for an updated picture of where the Hawk T1 fleet now stands.
In a written answer issued on Monday, the Minister of State for the Armed Forces, Luke Pollard, confirmed the fourteen-aircraft figure as of the first of June, having confirmed in a separate response last Friday that the fleet had been reduced to twenty-four Hawks at that date.
An earlier reply to the same MP, given on the third of June, said that two Hawk T1 airframes had been retired and struck from the Military Aircraft Register since January of last year, when the previous public figure was given. The fatigue index is the standard measure the RAF uses to track how much of the structural life of each individual airframe has been spent in flight, a particular concern for the Hawk T1, which entered Royal Air Force service in the late 1970s and which has long since been retired from the front-line training role.
With the front-line training task handed over, the Red Arrows are now effectively the sole operational user of the Hawk T1 in British service, putting the display team at the heart of any discussion about the type’s remaining life. In a separate written answer in April, Pollard told MPs that across all Hawk T1 airframes the RAF had retained “sufficient overall remaining available fatigue life” to keep the Red Arrows flying through to 2030 as planned, language that the new figures do not contradict but which leaves limited room to spare on individual aircraft.
With the new Strategic Defence Review still being worked into the Defence Investment Plan promised by the Prime Minister within weeks, the question of what flies over the King’s Birthday Parade in red after the Hawk T1 is one that is unlikely to wait much longer.
So four years to go and no replacement in sight. The death knell of the Red Arrows?
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The only thing we will have left is kier Starmer ..that one is hard to flush . His skin is thick and he takes no hints to leave ..cut welfare and aid .. rebuild our military and arms industry..
So Andy, Wes snd Angela then!!!!
Everyone I know loves the Red Arrows, long may they continue!
From the outside, it seems a shame that they have appeared to have given up hope on fixing the Hawk T2’s reliability problems.
I know the Red Arrows use the T1. But any switch to a foreign designed jet somewhat diminishes their role on British trade/diplomatic outreach.
So I do hope they can find a British based solution, surely we got the skillset to do so.
The T2 Fleet is a small making the cost of keeping them running costly, this is exacerbated by the rapidly shrinking international Hawk fleet. The two engine Leonardo M-346 is significantly cheaper to operate per hour than the Hawk T2 due to its larger global user base. Arguably the 2002/2003 Polish and Israeli purchase of the then Alenia Aermacchi M-346 killed off the Hawk on the international export market. the M-346 is superior to the Hawk T2 in nearly every metric, it is cheaper to operate and is less restrictive on the size of student that can fit into the cockpit which is a major issue for the RAF. The RAF didn’t even want the Hawk T2, they were already very keen on the M-346 and wanted a full procurement competition. The Hawk T2 was forced upon them to protect UK manufacturing jobs and hopefully stimulate further international exports of the type. Aside from the long drawn out Indian procurement the only other purchase of the Hawk came from Saudi Arabia and that was more a sop to the UK Government whilst negotiations for a Saudi Typhoon order was finalised. The Leonardo M-346 is very much the front runner for replacing the Hawk T1 and T2 in UK service, the RAF are very keen on the type and already send Pilots to IFTS in Italy to train on the type when they can’t get a slot at Valley. It also allows tall and short pilots who can’t fit in the Hawk T2 cockpit to go through fast jet training. From an industrial standpoint with Leonardo being a defence Prime with a large UK footprint offering final assembly in the UK it is British enough as far as the MOD, RAF, FAA and Government are concerned. Leonardo also appear to be sweetening the deal with the potential of placing final assembly at Yeovil which would be a huge win to protect UK aerospace manufacturing jobs. Lack of a suitable runway is not that much of an issue as the M-346 is modular and they would probably truck the type to either RNAS Yeovilton or MOD Boscombe Down for final fit and checkout. The M-346 is also far lower risk than the T-7A Red Hawk which has a troubled development, that utilises a more expensive to operate engine and would require recertification with a Martin Baker MK18 ejection seat or be forced to utilise the Collins ACES5 escape system. I suspect BAE Systems is more throwing its towel in with the T7A to show willing and eventually become a sub contractor on that programme rather than any serious expectation of getting the contract.
Interesting, thank you.
Not seen you post in many a year.
I keep nosing about, mainly post on Arrse these days. The reality is the Leonardo M-346 is the best turnkey “British enough” solution that the RAF in particular has been keen on for the last few decades now, it does all they want, has significantly lower per hour flight costs that the Hawk T2, a modern adaptable cockpit suitable for Typhoon and F-35 conversion that will be adaptable to Tempest and most importantly allows a wider range of pilots to be able to sit in the cockpit. The Hawk was developed from the 1964 AST 362 requirement meaning the Cockpit Anthropometrics for the type is based around that of a 1960s average male pilot. With the Hawk short pilots mainly woman can’t reach the pedals and tall pilots would have their knees and shins ripped off by the cockpit bulkhead of they ejected. This is causing a significant bottleneck in the fast jet training pipeline with promising pilots forced onto helicopters or having to wait for a precious training slot at IFTS in Italy on the M-346. The forcing of the Hawk T2 onto the RAF by the New Labour government in 2003 is a textbook case of political interference overriding military requirements to shield an industrial prime. In the early 2000s, the RAF explicitly requested a formal, open procurement competition to replace its aging Hawks. The Government due to the fear of lost jobs at Brough cancelled the tender process and initiated a direct purchase of the Hawk T2. The Civil service actually tried to block this as a gross waste of public money on a type that did not meet the RAF needs. To push the contract through, Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon was forced to issue an official “Ministerial Direction”. This is an incredibly rare constitutional mechanism where a politician explicitly orders an unsupportable financial expenditure, legally absolving the civil service of the blame when the project goes wrong. Frankly this was one of the greater defence debacles of that decade but it went largely under the public radar due to the message of British jobs being saved to buy what was according to the BAE Press machine “A world beating” jet trainer. I remember the chest beating enthusiasm from UK Aviation enthusiasts and Journolists for buying the Hawk T2 and how it would precede another great period of Hawk exports….that never materialised as the M-346, T-50 and various Chinese types cleaned up on the market.
OH and note BAE Systems shut down Brough anyway and moved production to Warton…
Thanks. I recall your informed commentary before in this area.
I recall, maybe wrongly, that it was Hoon who insisted on the engines for the T45.
I don’t know….damned Tories.
That is a bit more complex, yes he did but it was jobs in his own constituency that was under threat so I can understand where he was coming from, Hoon was also Labour. In respect of the WR21 the core gas turbine which is based on the RR RB211 is good it is the ICR system from Westinghouse where the issue lies and even then there are some factors that people don’t understand for example the T45 was always intended to have more Diesel generators alongside the Gas Turbines, the numbers were cut to save money leading to the vessel not having the intended installed reserve power. Also in respect of the decision to go for the WR21 on the T45 BAE Systems contrary to popular belief did not state that they prefered the GE LM2500 solution. What they said based upon internal studies was the GE solution and the Westinghouse/RR solution could both deliver the needed power, range and performance for the type but the WR21 had a higher risk. Stating there was a higher risk is very different from stating that the GE LM2500 should have been picked. It should also be noted that without the funding for the WR21 RR would probably have left the ship engine game and the excellent MT30 would never have happened.
I know he was Labour. I was tongue in cheek, joking at all the posters who have very short or selective memories and blame the Tories for everything. 👍
Those details on T45 were beyond me, so thanks for that.
Agreed, the Leonardo M-346 is the logical “sweet spot” choice. BAE Systems wants to lucratively to undertake final assembly of 40-50 T-7A Red Hawk’s in the UK for the RAF, but bitter experience shows that this is poor use of tax payer money. E.g. For the AgustaWestland Apache AH-1, I recollect reading an article in an old RUSI Journal that claimed the MOD would have saved at least £1 billion by sending the whole associated workforce at Yeovil (c.500) home on full pay for seven years, and instead just bought completed helicopters (rather than kits) from Boeing.
BAE Systems made a huge mistake by not investing some of its own money in a completely new AJT trainer to replace the highly successful and very profitable Hawk in the early 2000’s. Instead it lazily assumed that the MOD would eventually have no choice but pay it on cost+ basis to do that. But all the MOD could afford was the Advanced Hawk (T.2], which was never going to be enough to keep up with emerging competition.
Now now….got to keep the UK MIC in pork. Regardless of the cost to the military and MoDs budget…
But surely we can buy some Drones ?
T7 Red Hawk assembled at Warton….jobs no brainer. BAE could develop a combat version.
‘…the question of what flies over the King’s Birthday Parade in red after the Hawk T1 is one that is unlikely to wait much longer’
How has it come to this? The answer is straightforward:
‘In the period 2002 to the present, the total cost to the electricity consumer of those renewable electricity subsidy schemes that we can quantify has amounted to approximately £220 billion (in 2024 prices), equivalent to nearly £8,000 per household.
The annual subsidy cost is currently £25.8 billion a year, a sum equivalent to nearly fifty per cent of UK annual spending on defence.
Subsidy to renewable electricity generators now comprises about 40% of the total cost of electricity supply in the United Kingdom
The total subsidy cost per unit of renewable electricity generated has risen by nearly 50% in real terms since 2005 and now stands at approximately £200/MWh.’
Why is expensive pursuit of net zero, soaking up the tax revenue that should, by now, be spent on defence, a remarkably poor policy choice?
‘One of the most striking features of Earth’s climate history is its rhythmic natural structure. Throughout the Holocene, we observe:
multidecadal oscillations (~60 years),
centennial fluctuations,
millennial‑scale cycles such as the Eddy cycle,
and the Hallstatt–Bray cycle.
These patterns appear in ice cores, marine sediments, tree rings, and historical documents. They also correlate with solar and astronomical proxies. These cycles are not speculative; they are among the most robust features of paleoclimate research. Yet current GCMs (General Circulation Models) do not reproduce these oscillations with the correct amplitude or timing.
This is not a minor detail. If models cannot capture the natural background variability of the climate system, then attribution regarding the global warming from 1850–1900 to the present becomes inherently uncertain…And if the anthropogenic contribution to past warming is smaller than assumed, then its contribution to future warming — and therefore the associated climate risk — must also be proportionally reduced.’
Nicola Scafetta March 2026
Net zero subsidies should be cancelled forthwith to provide additional expenditure on defence.
All good points. I remember Terry Wogan thought the global warming movement was a fear mongering scam: he always struck me as a more grounded personality than Ed Milliband.
When the sun shines for two weeks we are doomed but not a whisper when it’s rained for a month🙄
Spot the guy that doesn’t understand how solar panels work 🤦🏻♂️
Ha, yes, I did struggle with that too !!!
Just to clarify that the Sun does work brilliantly when It shines on the panels and the panels still work when It rains…. It’s just at night that they don’t !
But That’s when the excess energy you stored In the batteries works😂
Hang on, It’s just got windy here, I’m going to turn the panels Into Windmill blades. 😁😁😁😁
Well put it a different way when the sun shines for a couple of weeks and it gets hot we are all doomed from global warming and we are going to shrivel up,roger so far? Then hay ho it rains and everything is all right in the world😀now someone will be along it rains so much because of global warming and if that is the case we here in NI really are doomed😵💫
Oh… now I get you. Soz mate, I was wrong .
‘Raindrops are falling on my head
And just like the guy whose feet are too big for his bed
Nothing seems to fit
Those raindrops are falling on my head, they keep falling
… So I just did me some talking to the sun
And I said I didn’t like the way he got things done
Sleeping on the job
Those raindrops are falling on my head, they keep fallin’
Monro pushing a load of lies about renewable energy again. Paid troll from the fossil fuel industry or just a buffoon? 🤷🏻♂️
I gave up trying to explain at the 7 year olds education level. 🤦♂️
I just let him get on with It now. 😂
The latter probably.
‘One of the most striking features of Earth’s climate history is its rhythmic natural structure. Throughout the Holocene, we observe:
multidecadal oscillations (~60 years),
centennial fluctuations,
millennial‑scale cycles such as the Eddy cycle,
and the Hallstatt–Bray cycle.
These patterns appear in ice cores, marine sediments, tree rings, and historical documents. They also correlate with solar and astronomical proxies. These cycles are not speculative; they are among the most robust features of paleoclimate research.
Yet current GCMs do not reproduce these oscillations with the correct amplitude or timing.’
References:
Angert, A., S. Biraud, Bonfils, C., Buermann, W. and I. Fung (2004). CO2 seasonality indicates origins of
post-Pinatubo sink. Geophysical Research Letters 31
Connolly, Roman, Willie Soon, Michael Connolly et al. (2021) How much has the Sun influenced
Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate Research in Astronomy and
Astrophysics 21(6) doi: 10.1088/1674-4527/21/6/131
Crisp, David & Dolman, Han (A.J.) & Tanhua, Toste & Mckinley, Galen & Hauck, Judith & Bastos, Ana
& Sitch, Stephen & Eggleston, Simon & Aich, Valentin. (2022). How Well Do We Understand the
Land‐Ocean‐Atmosphere Carbon Cycle?. Reviews of Geophysics. 60
Hausfather et al. (2019) “Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections” Geophysical
Research Letters 47
Jenkins, S., Smith, C., Allen, M. et al. Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature
anomaly above 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change. 13, 127–129 (2023)
Jones, P. D., P. Y. Groisman, M. Coughlan, N. Plummer, W.-C. Wang, and T. R. Karl (1990),
Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land, Nature, 347,
169 – 172
Liu, Pengfei et al. (2021) “Improved estimates of preindustrial biomass burning reduce the magnitude of
aerosol climate forcing in the Southern Hemisphere” Science Advances 7(22) May 2021
Oke, T.R., 1973: City size and the urban heat island, Atmospheric Environment 7, 769-779
Peterson, Thomas C., Kevin P. Gallo, Jay Lawrimore, Timothy W. Owen, Alex Huang, David A.
McKittrick (1999) Global rural temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters February 1999
Pielke Jr., Roger and Ritchie, Justin (2020) “Systemic Misuse of Scenarios in Climate Research and
Assessment” Social Sciences Research Network April 2020
Scaffeta, Nicola, Richard C. Willson, Jae N. Lee and Dong Wu (2019) Modeling Quiet Solar Luminosity
Variability from TSI Satellite Measurements and Proxy Models during 1980–2018. Remote Sensing
11(21)
Schoeberl, M.R., Y. Wang, G. Taha, D.J. Zawada, R. Ueyama and A. Dessler, 2024. Evolution of the
climate forcing during the two years after the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption. Journal of
Geophysical Research., 129.
Spencer, Roy W, John R Christy and William D. Braswell (2025) Urban Heat Island Effects in U.S.
Summer Surface Temperature Data, 1895–2023 Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
April 2025
Wickham C, R Rohde , RA Muller, J Wurtele, J Curry, et al. (2013) Influence of Urban Heating on the
Global Temperature Land Average using Rural Sites Identified from MODIS Classifications.
Geoinformatics and Geostatistics: An Overview 1:2.
Zacharias, Pia (2014) An Independent Review of Existing Total Solar Irradiance Records. Surveys in
Geophysics 35 pp. 897—912
And so and so forth…
‘…to demarcate between hard truth and convenient lies – and wonder, with awe, at how we so much prefer the latter these days…
…a society that considers the acquisition of knowledge not merely less important than the espousal of a political viewpoint but an intellectual cul de sac…the notion of actually knowing stuff from which one can then advance an argument is of no matter…the facts don’t matter…
…coerced by modernity and stupidity into refusing to countenance an opinion which might possibly conflict with their own…’
‘The unstoppable rise of stupidity’
Much of the fleet was cut back in the eaeky 2020s with the Tories last round of cuts – Sentinel, Sentry, Hawk T1, Defender, Islander, Hercules.
Not one of which has been replaced if you don’t include privatised aggressor services.
👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏
Hope those binned then were all high fatigue examples and none thrown away needlessly.
👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 👏
They did keep the jets in the best condition. Sentinel R1 still pains me. Such a good capability if they had been upgraded. They never got into the main budget and out of UOR.
Yes, it was logical that they would be mate.
My other thought, what’s wrong with using the existing T2s from 4 4TS? Move them to other duties like the Reds?
Or are their hours already trashed and the engine not to be trusted given the complex aerial manoeuvres?
I don’t really know to be honest. My guess would be they just don’t have enough in service to cover training and the Reds. Plus the engine issues. I think the RAF haven’t been overly happy with the general performance of the T2 and will probably be glad to see the back of them. I’m convinced the Reds have a long bright future. But I’m extremely sceptical they can purchase a new advanced jet trainer and get it in operational service for 2030. None of them are simple aircraft these days. FBW, Advanced avionics. They are complex aircraft to bring into service in such a short timeframe. Another decision that should have been made 5 years ago.
Yes, I should have been clearer. I meant move them over after a new advanced jet trainer is bought.
So retain the T2, like legacy Hawk T1s were retained.
There are 28 in the T2 fleet and article says 24 T1 remain, there are no other uses for the T1s now.
RAF CAM Flight, 100 Sqn, 736 NAS, all gone.
I don’t know the feasibility of the T2 for the Reds role given it’s engine issues.
Yeah, again mate, I’m not sure. That would seem logical. But perhaps they don’t want two aircraft types to support.
DM – There was a thread on FB about the Reds – someone said the T2 is not as suitable as a Display Aircraft compared to the T1,due to it being more / too Nose Heavy ,different Avionics being the reason.How true that is i don’t know.
Hi Paul.
Thanks for that, not heard of those details.
Good points as always, I seem to remember Sentinel airframes went to the US.
Yes. Thrown away, for me.
I read people saying we have Drones. Well, we
have RC135 merrily doing the rounds behind the lines in Ukraine, what could Sentinel have done with it’s ground surveillance radar.
I keep reading it was obsolete. Really? Even if not updated like it should have been, an asset of use in benign areas which I believe few possessed.
Is anyone at the MoD keeping an eye out for second hand 100/200 series Hawks? From Malaysia or Indonesia perhaps? Could be bought cheap & refurbished by BAE.
That’s a good idea by my book. If theur hours haven’t been trashed.
Fatigue index is the true measure of an aircrafts service life. Not hours flown, which is what is often the metric that gets the most attention.
Which I’ve just referenced twice since I woke up…..🙄apologies also for the mobile phone typos.
Meanwhile no mention on UKDJ if the collapse of the Franco-German FCAS Sixth Generation project 🤷🏻♂️
Give them a chance? Maybe it’s being created, it would certainly be a worthy article.
Would you welcome Germany in?
German money. Yes. But I’d like to think the requirements and design are to mature now for Airbus to have any meaningful say in the design or workshare.
Financially, yes.
My concern is what do we get back? Just money?
Do we do tech transfer on a plate, like I read we’ve done before in the past.
If it secured the program it’d be tempting, but my heart says no, after the Typhoon and workshare shenanigans.
We all seem to be allies until we get shafted. So build it and outsell everyone.
Agreed. I’d rather Sweden be more involved. If the Germans want it, they can buy it.
I think the Swedes would want different requirements, and will probably be aiming more for a cheaper 5+ aircraft rather than a full 6th gen.
That’s the crux. Too complex for their needs, and rightly. Tiny area to cover compared to the UKADR, little expeditionary requirement, emphasis on ability for off base operations.
They should grab some Typhoons while production is still running 😆
Well we could just merge the Red Arrows with the Typhoon Display Team, and paint the latters planes red 🤷🏻♂️
That would be nice. But way to expensive to operate Typhoon as a display team.
The Germans yes, but they’re late to the party, so they are going to have to accept all the requirements and design decisions taken so far. But a workshare in manufacturing is fine and useful given we should have multiple production sites given these will be targeted in the prelude to any hostilities.
Involving the Germans would also help ensure that GCAP/Tempest is seen as the premier European warplane. If Germany teamed up with Sweden then we might see more credible competition to GCAP when it comes to foreign sales.
Yes, all valid points.
My heart says no, my head yes. Wouldn’t surprise me if HMG brought them in, if Japan and Italy agree.
Would rather isolate France to go it alone, again.
Given what I hear about the attitude of Dassault, one reaps what one sows.
Involve the Germans.
But under no circumstances allow the French in.
My two cents.
With this collapse, the greatest opportunity ever In the field of European Aviation has come nocking at the GCAP door.
It’s a potentially staggering money earner for the partners and UK In particular.
Lets all hope It doesn’t get trashed.
Germany’s money and expertise yes but not on a Partnership/Interference level.
“Knocking”… (In fear of the Pedants) 😁
Did you call?
Yes, can i have my ball back please ? 😂
but you have to fill in the the forms in triplicate & press button B
I’ll need to call a meeting first !
OMG, a sensible post from you 😳
Yes, I’m sorry about that !
As Spock says!
I did post another one once.
You must have missed It. 🤔😁
I read the Germans are saying they don’t believe a manned fighter is the future, so would they even be interested in joining. I can see in 10/15 years time when they realise they still need manned fighters they panic and order some but just purely as an export customer.
Funny thing is that I remember reading a Government article not so long back where a statement was made that Airframes had decades of life left.
Must have been another Government “Can kicking exercise”.
Mate, acceptance that no politician of any shade can be trusted not to lie is the go to starting point. Has been for a few decades imo. Like MSM, they follow a set narrative. No MSM that I can see, except an Ozzy one, reporting an attempted beheading in Belfast yesterday. Thats why even folk our age go to X, FB, and all the others for up to date “news”. Thats why government want to control social media including banning kids, and outlawing VPN use. Feckin control freakery on speed, ie they are scared sheetless of the future. THEIR future.
All true there John.
Personally I don’t (never have) use X. FB Is shockingly exploited by AI and Click Bait whilst mediated by thick Americans. All Inhabited by millions of the “Offended”.
Mainstream news Is all biased Woke and LGBGT Vegan orientated (I’m White, English, Male, Straight and Omnivore).
Kids are all growing up lacking even the basic social skills and seemingly unable to cope without an iPhone permanently attached whilst Walking, driving eating In a restaurant and taking a shit.
My littlun sends me stuff, I just look and draw my own. I would not have known about the Belfast thing if a friend there had not sent me the video last night. As that is a “DEI” jobby will be interesting to see what garbage gooberment and their pet MSM churn out.
I am also white, English and of normal orientation including infantry cynicism and a distrust of sailors.
Perhaps we might meet attending the Prevent workshop on “how to think and what to say”.
footnote…. if the pretend soldiers at 77 Sunset Strip read this? Chalk me up as a potential Reform voter 🙂
👍
Well it’s the BBC headline now, mate.
Assume another of our guests bringing further enrichment to the nation?
For HMG sake, I hope he wasn’t an illegal.
According to information available? Yes he is illegal and Somalian. This is going to boil over nationwide soon l reckon. Pity as many get dragged in like many Jews are lately. I blame government end of.
Yes, it is.
Courtesy of HMG.
Really baffling that BAE didn’t think about a replacement for its most successful aircraft export , including the Goshawk variant for the USN.
As recently as 2020, the possibility remained of building the Advanced Hawk, designed in co-operation with HAL. Production lines in UK and India now closed.
Hawk continuously evolved whilst the RAF numbers were decimated (Danielle will probably have some numbers) and other options became available on the market.
It’s a numbers game.
Good point about Hal, they produced a single seat Foland Gnat called Ajeet once. Proved its worth against Pakistan. Actually studying Indian kit is worth the time, they produce some good equipment. Cynical me says lobbied politicians play a part in this, the big western MIC packs a lot of influence.
The Gnat was the Rd Arrow aircraft “When I were a lad”.
Me too….weesa boomers 🤣
Two reasons – (1) Money or lack of,always the case where Equipment is needed,and (2) The RAF had no interest in buying the Advanced Hawk,hell they didn’t even want the T2.
There are over 400 T1’S Worldwide! If necessary buy a few back. Until the invertible decision is made to buy the Saab T7.
Every day almost Ben Obese-Jecty, submits a question that makes Pollard and his minions look like ****. It a living I guess