Russia is running short of more modern missiles while Ukrainian air defences still deter Russian tactical aircraft from conducting strikes across much of the country.
According to an intelligence update from the UK Ministry of Defence:
“As of 10 June, Russian forces around Sieverodonetsk have not made advances into the south of the city. Intense street to street fighting is ongoing and both sides are likely suffering high numbers of casualties.
Russia is massing fires with its artillery and air capabilities, in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian defences.
Since April, Russian medium bombers have likely launched dozens of 1960s era Kh-22 (NATO designation, AS-4 KITCHEN) air-launched, heavy anti-ship missiles against land targets. These 5.5 tonne missiles were primarily designed to destroy aircraft carriers using a nuclear warhead. When employed in a ground attack role with a conventional warhead they are highly inaccurate and can therefore cause significant collateral damage and civilian casualties.
Russia is likely resorting to such inefficient weapon systems because it is running short of more precise modern missiles, while Ukrainian air defences still deter its tactical aircraft from conducting strikes across much of the country.”
If this is indeed the case then the Russian’s will struggle to achieve even their limited objectives given that the West is [slowly?] delivering longer range artillery to the Ukrainian Army.
I hope that the UK and US deliver more than the current promised numbers of MLRS (3) and HIMARS (4) and may be we can get some HIMARS into the Royal Artillery to replace the MLRS, especially as the cost is susposed to come from the national contingency fund rather than the Defence Budget.
We can hope…
Cheers CR
Russia is depleting its stockpile of weapons and munitions while Ukraine’s is increasing. But Russia began with a far larger stockpile, and the one thing that can’t be replaced is Ukrainian servicemen. So it’s unclear over time how a war of attrition will go.
I think the US is hoping that with the U.K. donating 3 MLRS to Ukraine, this will encourage donations from the 13 other operators. If that doesn’t happen, then yes we should donating far more – entire lot if need be. Russia needs to be pushed back to pre-2014 borders and the authoritarian regime toppled.
Ukraines is not increasing, at the moment they are running out of ammo! So much for western support.
Let’s be perfectly clear, if it wasn’t for Western support Ukraine would have been overrun in a week. I’m sure President Zelensky himself would agree. There have been plenty of stories from Ukrainian soldiers that their Soviet-era RPGs just bounced off the Russians tanks; after they got NLAWs, one Ukrainian colonel was quoted as saying now Russian tanks “burn beautifully”. Ukrainian soldiers have also been seen singing ‘God Save the Queen’ after firing a NLAW.
The real issue is how long the West will continue this level of support. Talk is cheap but let’s give the West the benefit of the doubt.
I think the question is not just how long will the west continue to support Ukraine at this level it’s Also how long can the west support at this level. The reality is European nations including the U.K. are not know for holding war stocks to supply what is now essentially a war of attrition.
Russias armed forces literally warehouse everything they have ever had issues, it does mean that they may end up using old munitions and armour but it will still grind Ukriane down.
Yes, it’s a battle of supply chains, logistics and the will to fight! Ukraine needs the West’s continuous support and hopefully the West will see this conflict through. It’s putting NATO, EU, UN and the “old World Order” credibility on the line every day.
Another problem not always appreciated is that NATO standard ammunition is not compatible with Ukrainian standard weapons, which uses SOVIET standard ammunition. That Ukrainian soldier on the front line down to his last few rounds likely isn’t after NATO 5.6mm ammo. While many former satellite states still have such weapons & production facilities, most of the big players (with massive production capability) don’t (or rather it’s limited, mainly to train against). These former satellite states have been converting to NATO standard as they are all now mostly NATO members. So this ability has been winding down for years. Any NATO weapon supplied also needs ammunition supplied at the same time (& not just a weeks worth).
Hopefully the NLAW production plant at Belfast is working at full capacity 24/7 to replenish the weapons weve already donated. If replenishment is ongoing then why not donate thousands more NLAW to Ukraine?
The US military did not order new Stingers for many years, as they did not face an air threat. They have sent many Stingers to Ukraine, & the makers warn it could take a while to get mass production going again.
Maybe they could use starstreak. Really these weapons with long lead times need to see what can be done to speed it up
I wonder if they are or not. If the UK has placed an order for new missiles the contract should have been declared, but I haven’t heard of any such contract. The government might be keeping it quiet as they have a history of not publishing them, but you would expect the reverse as it would be a nice media story if we were getting more made.
The big question will be does Russia run out of missiles before Ukraine runs out of toilets. Only time will tell.
And will China, Iran and others re-supply Russia with new equipment on the quiet?
Not sure China or Iran has sufficient stock piles or production of long range cruise and precision ballistic missiles to give much to the Russian. It will be obvious that they have done it and they risk sanctions. China won’t want to share anything advanced with Russia as well so they can’t rip it off.
Yes there’s the risk of sanctions but I wouldn’t be surprised with some exchange of stuff and tech between these three for mutual benifit. How come their tech levels are forever on the increase? Where is that coming from? Is all their tech home grown?
I think in part it’s an overestimation of their tech and under estimate of ours. It’s also easier to play catch up that truly innovate. Remember in 1991 when we thought those Soviet tanks and integrated air defences in Iraq posed a significant threat and we cut through them like butter. For all their apparent capability china lacks the capability to manufacture ball point pens and Russia can’t make much beyond a simple circuit.should we believe on face value they make weapons beyond the capability of Europe or the US.
Not entirely true, British jets needed to be escorted by US electronic warfare jets as they were too exposed without them. The Iraq air defence was a real threat, the west just had a counter in the growler.
Just as the Russians have been finding the Ukrainian AD a real threat.
“China won’t want to share anything advanced with Russia as well so they can’t rip it off.”
The irony! 😂
Russia stockpiled likely more ammunition than all of europes supply combined, its got all of its soviet ammunition still. They are really going to struggle to replace those precision weapons though, they have been low on supply for at least 1-2months as far as we know. ukraine really isnt gaining weapon systems its not even close to replacing what they are losing.
Most of that Russian stockpile of munitions will date back decades. But they once they run out if their in country stocks of processors etc, they won’t be able to manufacture any more precision weapons. It’ll be interesting to see if they can source precision weapons from China, I suspect not.
Ukraine is gaining weapons systems, on paper. It takes time, especially if there has to be out of country training to be done on it. Some items, such as tanks, they have more than one they started the war, but what they need more are artillery and aircraft.
Obviously they also need to be continuously supplied with munitions to fire from their existing weapons and the news ones being donated, even down to rounds for their assault rifles. I wonder if some countries realise this needs to be a continual rearming process, not a one-off. We have to assume this will be a multi-year war too, and put in long-term logistical and training plans in place.
While the 20 AS-90s the U.K. is reportedly donating is a huge uplift, getting the 45,000 rounds to them in a timely way is going to be vitally important. (Better to keep the stores outside of Ukraine where they’re not threatened by Russian attacks, then move into theatre as required.)
Russia does manufacture processors themselves, definitely not the latest speeds but probably adequate for weapon use. Plus they can buy commodity western processors on the grey market.
I think The Econmist ran an article on this along the lines of good for toasters kettles, not much else.
Will the Orcs get used to “brewing up?”
Their car manufacturers can’t even get the processors needed for ABS & airbags, so what chance Russia obtaining those needed for PGMs?
Russians processors are a joke, certainly not up to precision weaponry.
There’s zero grey market for Western processors because they are in such short supply. Plus a lot of the fab plant production is being bought up for Arm production, which is not used in Russian weapons.
The grey market is largely coming out of dishwashers and washing machines. The US was running TLAM back in the late 1970’s. Basic precision weaponry like this is not particularly sophisticated compared to modern micro processors.
(a) that explains why so many retreating Russian tanks seem to be covered with dishwashers and washing machines
(b) you do know that TLAMs have been updated since the 1970s right?
Take a modern car, reduce the number of processors in it to that of a Model T – or even a car built 30 years ago – and see how well it works.
I’m sorry but that comment shows how little you know of computer technology. The real drive for greater packing density i.e. lower nm, has been the need to reduce space and power consumption, not raw computing power. Mainly to increase the features of the computer in your pocket otherwise known as a phone..
We were designing high speed modems back in the late 80s using the M56000, it and the M68000 are likely to have have sufficient performance to drive any modern weapon, they were just quite large, non BGA (that’s Ball Grid array) so needed space and were power hungry. The Russians have a 65nm plant capable of producing processors like that and generally speaking space and power is not an issue in a missile.
My Vauxhall Cavalier, E reg, works rather well with its 80’s technology ECU, as does my L reg same with ABS, and I can certanly get by without computers for the wing mirrors, seats and god knows what else in modern cars, I have one of them too..
Degree in Computer Science, MBCS, and working for one of the worlds leading product design consultancies – so you’re about as correct as you were about Putin not invading Ukraine.
Yes we could even go back to using the primitive technology used in the 60’s on the Apollo missions. It seems to have been more accurate than the precision missiles Russia currently uses. But while it might be able to fly from A to B it won’t be able to do the volume of complex calculations and flight-adjustments for the best terrain following possible. As usually it’s not a case of can or can’t but how well.
Russian is capable 65nm dies, wow!!
My iPhone has a 5nm die, says it all really 😆
ps: never knew Vauxhall exported to Russia, sure you’re not driving a Trabby?
pps: I assume you’re still denying all the Russian war crimes, just as you spent so much time denying Russia was going to invade.
Boom, Sean shoots and scores and we have a troll down, troll down 😂👍!
Ah you’re too kind. To be honest it was an open goal so big that even a Russian precision weapon could probably have hit it 😏
😂👍🍍🍆🥕🥖🍡🍢🍼🎤🚀🗼🕯💊! Just thought I’d include a selection of Putins new “vengeance weapons”, all some of the most dangerous, capable, double hyper dyper sonic, multiple re-entry special operation missiles! Agreed some may not look like missiles, but these can be launched from beloved and greatest Russian soil and destroy the decadent and evil west in 2.3 seconds, using the most advanced ex washing machine circuit boards cleverly designed as modern state of the art tech…..honestkvie guvniski!
Shush! 🤫 Your reference to “vengeance weapons” will probably have Putsey scouring Great Patriot War Museums for Doodlebugs and V2 exhibits to press into service 😆
Your right it doesn’t take a lot computer tech to get from one point to another, most of Russia’s modern weapons are warmed over soviet plans anyway.
Russia also doesn’t use precision weapons like the the west has previously. While they are perhaps handy to have some to hit storage facilities etc normal artillery seems to be Russia’s preferred method. What may become an issue is the rockets that out range russian artillery. If Ukraine can pinpoint and target 1 rocket from MLRS should hit the target. The few launchers that have been donated are probably not enough to make a big difference but will help.
As Russia is the attacker military doctrine says you lose 35-50 per 1000 troops. As defender expect 5-15 per 1000. If that is playing out as the sciences have said russia is losing a BTC every day 500 soldiers a day. Ukraine has said they are losing 100-150 recently. I expect a slow down from Russia in the next few days or when the town falls the main fighting is at just now.
Oh Sean has now laid you out just like Farouk does on a regular basis.
Even if refrigerated, ‘stable’ energetic compositions become unstable over time, through various incompletely understood decomposition mechanisms. If the Russians really are using decades-old munitions one would expect to see catastrophic failures with some frequency.
There have been reports of explosions at munitions stores. You’d think they’d be careful given what happened to Kursk.
Didn’t Ben Wallace come out and say that we weren’t going to be donating the AS-90’s? I can’t find anything confirming that we are sending them.
I think the AS-90’s were what people thought we were going to send before they came out and said it would be the M270?
The big question is precision weapon resupply from Russia internally a possibility? Russia is no longer receiving microprocessors from Taiwan therefore they will try to internalise supply chain. That will take time and likely see a fall in production quality and reduction in sophistication.
What about China and India? Both have indigenous precision atrike weapons production integrated already into Russian and soviet era platforms will we see Russia deploying Chinese made weaponry in the near future. I think so.
The answer could be yes, they have been making their own processors for many years but like anyone else if someone is making a better one it gets used. There is a strong probability that any micros in critical products are their own, certainly in their older weapons.
I doubt that the Russians will be reduced to buying Chinese.
“I doubt that the Russians will be reduced to buying Chinese.”
That’s hilarious!! The Chinese are at least a decade ahead in silicon fabrication over anything Russia can produce domestically. Switching to a Chinese component would be an upgrade for the Russians; they should be so lucky! 😆
Precision weapons have a shelf life though, so the Soviet stuff will likely be useless by now and same with a lot of the stored none precision stuff. Who knows how big their viable stock is though, time will tell.
Most Soviet stuff also won’t make use of GLONASS as that only became fully operational after the USSRs collapse.
Yes, hopefully other operators donate/loan/sell Ukraine some of their systems.
And yes, if need be, we can afford to send them pretty all of ours (short a few to allow for continued training). We won’t need them anytime soon, but Ukraine do. Well, at least if Ukraine get them, then we shouldn’t have any need for them anytime soon. If we don’t… well let’s just hope we won’t need them.
I doubt we’ll have need for them any time soon, the Russians have more than enough on their plate with the Ukrainians.
Long term, if replace with some more modern, which is why I’d donate the lot.
The issue is that NATO between its member states can support Ukraine much more with artillery and rocket launchers. NATOs stockpile of both types of fire support are more massive than we give credit for. Germany could and should be doing much more unless they actually want Ukraine to lose and to have Russia in control of the whole country and then threatening along a much wider front.
If Ukraine does fall. Poland and Baltic states will be very exposed to a near all encompassing threat axis.
France has donated Caesar 155mm rapid deployment guns but probably not in the quantity needed. Our MLRS are quiet elderly. If we donated say 12-18 of them and replaced with new MLRS would that be such a problem?
I’d donate all our MLRS, and try and shame other operators into donating too. Elderly, but the HIMARS the USA uses is the same missile launcher but with less missiles and fitted to a faster wheeled vehicle rather than a tracked one, so really nothing more modern out there…. And still more than a match for the vintage kit the Russians are fielding.
Aye eh ……You’d donate all our precious MLRS systems? That not a bit foolish ?advocating giving away our own equipment means we have nothing for our own use and before you say we buy more to replace who pays?. Our army needs equipment and funding more than pishing it all away on some foreign disaster zone.
If as much effort was put into getting both sides round the table for peace instead of gleefully trying to prolong this conflict by supplying more weapons then all the killing destruction and misery might stop but as we all know theres no desire for this as there’s no money to be made in that approach.
🏴🇬🇧
Yes I’m sure some people said exactly the same back in 1939 too… unfortunately people like Hitler, Putin, etc don’t care how many innocents die in order for them to get what they want, territorial expansion. Crimea was the 21st centuries Czechoslovakia, and as we’ve seen, doing nothing causes more bloodshed done the line.
No it’s not foolish donating our MLRS to Ukraine. Who were you planning on using them against? The most likely opponent is Russia so why not donate them to Ukraine who is currently fighting them. The more Russian tanks, artillery, warships that Ukraine can destroy the less we potentially face in combat. Who knows, if Ukraine is successful we might see another ‘Falklands effect’ with the invading nation’s authoritarian regime overthrown and replaced with a democracy. If Russia could become a fully functioning democracy they might just cease to be a threat and potential opponent.
As for the replacement of MLRS, well it needs replacing anyway due to age so might as well get some usage out of it. And the Treasury has already allocated £3bn from the emergency contingency fund, in part to cover replacement of equipment given to Ukraine. So the Army gets new MLRS paid for by Treasury and not out of the defence budget, and Ukraine gets weapons more advanced than anything Russia has.
What’s not to like(?), unless of course, you’re a stooge for Putin…
😂 wow response times are getting quicker …..
On this we must disagree my man .what do you mean who was I planning on using them against? I hope we don’t have to use them cos that involves people dying .
You’ve missed my entire point . Our having military equipment (MLRS) is like an insurance policy I.e costs a lot money but you hope you never have to use them .
3billion allocated didn’t include replacement for these systems only upgrades so again who pays? You are aware Governments don’t have any money it’s the people who give them this?
Alas it’s usually unemployed folks and retired types that come away with that relaxed couldnae gie a fcuk attitude however people who work and pay tax (me) it’s a different story cos there’s who has to foot the bill.
This proxy war we are involved in isn’t going to end well for Ukraine and I don’t believe we should be helping prolong this.
Russia isn’t going to invade the West despite the shitey fear mongering the msm like to promote. They can’t even subdue Ukraine so you think there was ever a danger they could go further? The US (for now) rules the roost and flat out annihilates everyone it’s not even close
Stooge of Putin? 😂 I’ve already made my views clear on here ( not popular with the call of duty boys ) I support neither of these rotten corrupt regimes. It’s actually quite sad anyone who doesn’t go along with the groupthink mentality and has a differing opinion gets smeared as a stooge or troll . I mean I didn’t infer you or anyone else was a wee parrot for the globalist narrative that pushes this conflict.
Here’s what someone much smarter than anyone commenting in here once said –
“What’s right { truth} isn’t always popular and what’s popular isn’t always right …..
Wouldn’t you rather see both sides get round the table talk peace ? End the killing? ………..
Anyways long way round but thankfully we are upgrading our MLRS and keeping them for our own use
🇬🇧🏴
And don’t think precision is the top of Russia’s priority list. Most of the fire power appears to come from the artillery, mortars, unguided rockets etc. After that I would hazard a guess that helicopters firing rockets is next. Then aircraft and cruise missiles from the boats.
There have been some explosions at Russian arms storage which to hazard a guess is mostly from getting older weapons ready. While the guided stuff may be running low Russia probably has years worth of unguided shells, ammo etc. Crikey they probably still have the bombs from Korean War sitting in a warehouse somewhere.
Russia is going to flatten an area, try to kill every single living thing in said area and then move in with ground troops. Rinse and repeat. The slow progress Russia has made in some areas seems to follow this operation mode.
I wish I could say something positive and that Russia will be gone from Ukraine soon. Unfortunately I think Ukraine has the fight of its life on its hands and casualty numbers are going to be huge. Best situation would be the collapse of Russian forces and a refusal to serve by soldiers. Fingers crossed
‘And don’t think precision is the top of Russia’s priority list’
Indeed, they don’t appear to care much for their own troops, as they have shown in the past, they don’t seem to care about international opinion, so why not just flatten whole areas. Let us hope desperation doesn’t set in ushering in the use of WMD.
I think the point about the MLRS / HIMARS is that they out range the Russian artillery so offer the Ukrainian’s an effective counter battery fires capability. The West have already supplied a number of mortar / artilley location radar systems so hopefully they will have the ability to start to hit the Russian artillery. If they can demonstrate the capability to the average Russian gunner, perhaps morale will take another hit.
There was an article on the BBC about a number of Russian soldiers already refusing to fight, if the Russian superiority in artillery can be whittled down with Western precision fires then perhaps the Russian Army’s morale will finally collapse. It has happened before, but I think we are still some way off it happening again. Also there were reports of yet another Russian general being killed at the front…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61607184
I fear that Western leaders are starting to find themselves under pressure because of the cost of living crunch and the fact that many in the world will be facing starvation unless Ukrainian grain shipments start up again soon. Either the West forces a peace deal onto the Ukrainian’s (a betrayal) or they throw their weight fully behind them and supply as much equipment as they possibly can. That would give the Ukrainian’s a chance to counter attack in the Autumn if they can equip and train the 1,000,000 soldiers that Zelenskyy spoke about recently with Western kit. It could be done, but with economic hardship already starting to bite spending on a foreign war might well not be sustainable, especially if that war bogs down into a slow war of attrition. The West needs to move quickly and could perhap justify the spend by suggesting a win for the Ukraine would open up world food supplies again, but it would be quite the political gamble.
Cheers CR
I really don’t get what is slowing down the west. Even the UK has dragged its feet. For sure we gave a shed load of nlaws but heavy gear has been slow.
I guess the obvious expanation is probably the right one, we and the European nations don’t have any reserve stocks of gear, the stuff that was meant to be in the stock rooms has been stripped and it is taking time to get them operational again. So the promised kit is taking longer than the governments expected to be delivered
The UK has not dragged its feet. Its France, Germany, Italy & Spain who have been gutless, penny pinching, two faced miserable shysters tbh.
Spain are going to donate leopard 2A4s to Ukraine. The first NATO country to give a modern MBT.
France has already supplied a number of Caesar 155mm rapid deployment guns (truck mounted) France’s military seem to be very willing to efficiently help Ukraine . Its their political master in 2 faced appeaser Macron thats the problem. He is deliberately limiting France’s support. Probably because he wants Ukraine to fall to justify the need for a France led EU army.
Na, its not about EU or EU army etc, its about oil/gas, the EU countries don’t want to annoy Russia too much until they are in a position to remove their reliance on Russia.
The world is going through mass inflation, and the EU is broadly keeping it under control, compared to say the UK/US, but if they were to have Russia cut off their oil/gas that would vanish quickly.
Spain apparently only found 10 that were worth sending and Germany vetoed the transfer anyway.
Pretty sure Germany put a halt to Spain supplying the Leopards.
You’ve also got to consider the training and logistics required to start using a vehicle of that level on the battlefield. You’re looking at months to get crews ready and even then it’ll probably not be to a high enough standard to make a massive amount of difference. Training is a completely secondary issue to being able to logistically support something that has no commonality with what they currently have in service.
New shiny toys are great but they need to know how to use them to actually be affective otherwise it’s pointless. The Leopard 2a4’s hardly covered themselves with glory when the Turkish used them in Syria.
Spanish artillery is being used in Ukraine,so you can’t point fingers at them. Germany i agree, they seem to be hapyp to announce donations and then not deliver. French stuff is also already being used.
My concern is why havent’ we donated anything heavy, the only thing we have donated is 2 MLRS, we even have heavy gear being advertised for sale such as CVR(T) and Husky. Plus surely we have some war stocks, even if just small numbers. This is the chance to elimanate Russia as a threat to the UK.
Dont’ get me wrong the UK is one of the best at delivering, i just think we can do more.
We haven’t given heavy equipment because we either have little of it or it is old (AS90) or both. Personally I’m surprised we have given any MLRS as we have way to few. But likely its a token of support and hoping others will give also (a faint hope with some in the EU I’m afraid).
You can’t really say we haven’t given much and then point fingers at the EU which thanks to Poland/etc have given a lot of heavy kit.
We are taking large numbers of challengers out of service, why not donate them. AS90 might be old but still would be useful as it can shoot and scoot.
Didn’t they store a load of the Argentine gear in the Falklands, I assume most of that would be ex soviet that could be useful.
I suspect the reason we and a number of other countries are not donating more is they are worried about what happens if Ukraine loses and Russia moves on to the next country.
Be careful what you wish for – donating surplus Challenger 2 Tanks to Ukraine will present the same issues that the German veto on the Spanish Leopard 2 might have been about – you run a very high risk of an example (s) falling into Russian hands and bang goes your Lead in Armour Developement.As to any ex Argentinian Equipment thats a no-go too,anything of any use will be long gone and nothing i can think of would have been of Soviet origin,they bought their stock from the USA and Western Europe.
Hi Steve,
That would certianly be part of the problem, reactivating stored and often cannibalised kit can take time, especially if you need to make the required spare parts which could well have gone out of production..! First you have to find the technical drawings and specifications, if not you have to design ‘new’ components that don’t adversely affect the exsisting elements of the system (e.g. let a little bit too much voltage through an old circuit and phoomp..!).
Then, once you have done all of that, you need to train the Ukrainian’s on not just the particular item but the whole kill chain process.
We have supplied artillery locating radar to the Ukrainian Army and now we (the West) will be supplying the guns and MLRS to exploit the intell which means many more Ukrainian troops will need to go through the training process, particularly how they work with the recce assets (drones etc), radars and forward observers. Also, I would be surprised if we are not also training Ukrainian trainers…
Bringing new kit of a completely different standard, designed for a different operational and tactical doctrine is no small thing. Fortunately, the US and the UK have already trained 10’s of thousands of Ukrainian troops since 2014, but they will now need even more support as they take on NATO heavy kit in quantity for the first time ever – all whilst they mobilise and their country is under fire…
The heavy long range kit will take weeks to train the Ukrainian’s because the reach of these systems is much greater than NLAW’s and MANPADS. They will need to be much more thorough in the training and make sure the entire kill chain process is properly and reliably deployed or at best they will not be effective in stopping the Russian’s and at worst could end up with blue on blue incidents…
Complex, mate. Very complex.
Cheers CR
They may have a lot of old kit but as Ukraine’s reach gets longer the systems Russia uses will be vulnerable. M777, MLRS etc will start to claim victims. Russian attack helicopters and tactical aircraft have been suffering very heavy losses to MPADS. Russian Armour and logistics have proved an easy target for ATGWs.
Also Ukraine is still mobilising and training new troops they will have a numerical advantage over Russia. There is also the moral issue – Russian moral is low, and set to get worse. There is also the matter of loss of experience in the Russian army. As Russia are loosing troops at a faster rate and they had heavy losses in top units, the Russians are now feeding in less and less experienced units that die quicker.
So Russia is using old kit and cannon fodder. Ukraine are starting to use new kit and battle hardened troops and more of them.
So as long as the West keeps supporting Ukraine the Russians will loose.
Ukraine can never have numerical superiority in Troops over Russia,,thats physically impossible.
But they’re all in Ukraine. Russia cannot send its entire armed forces there
Ukraine has mobilised – Russia has not,plus Russia has at least a 3x advantage in population size.
As the orcs have increased the age of military service to the 40s that in itself gives a heads up on their problems.
The US did stuff like that during the Iraq/Afgan wars, plus started heavily relying on private military contractors, i think that is becoming the norm, no nation really has enough soldiers for a sustained war.
Not at all. Ukraine is mass mobilizing it’s population. Russia isn’t. As long as Putin is determined to spin this as a limited intervention and not fully mobilize the Russian populous, while Ukraine treats it like a Total War, it’s only a matter of time until the Ukranian Armed Forces outnumber the Russians.
So what happens when Russia fully Mobilises then ? Do you think a Ukrainian victory on the Battlefield will see Russia accept defeat gracefully and walk away with it’s Tail between it’s legs ?.
If Russia fully mobilises then people there may start to wonder why a limited operation against some “junkie Nazis in Ukraine” is such a challenge. Russia has already lost more troops in 100 days in Ukraine than the whole of the Afghan campaign. Despite the control of the media there, people will start to notice when they know more and more people who have lost a son, a brother, a nephew, a friend, to the fighting…
It’s not inconceivable we could see a repeat of 1917 against the current despot.
👆
Plus, the Ukrainians started to mobilize much earlier than the Russians. As for Russia accept defeat gracefully? No. They’ll have to have sense beaten into them. But as long as they happily let the Ukranians chew up BG after BG until every Russian soldier sent is carrying a Mosin Nagant then that just might happen.
The deployment of T62s from deep storage actualkly makes sense. Hold back Russia’s modern tanks as they are getting chewed up. Let the Ukrainian military use up their precision weapons on old defunct tanks. Shows a distinct callousness towards Russian service personnel. But as long as casualties are no concern then yeah there is a certain efficiency.
1) That’s not how the Russians are using them, they’re putting them in quieter areas so they can focus their more modern tanks in the high intensity regions, so the point is just off.
2) It makes sense in the “A tank is better than no tank” way, but not in any sense beyond that.
Russian troop losses are basically guesswork and the way they are fighting now should be minimising them.
A little more than guess work, whilst not hugely accurate, western intel will have been able to work out losses based on sizes of forces committed to operations Vs numbers moved following failures and from the sheer amount of hardware destroyed, plus Ukraine is admitting it’s losing 100 plus a day and that number will be downplayed, whilst they are generally winning ground until recently so russian losses would be higher. We can be pretty confident that Russian losses are in the tens of thousands, but it’s impossible to have an exact number as Russia is lying to everyone about what is going on.
Troops loses. Approx 15K dead and 30K wounded as a minimum perhaps upto 30K dead and 50-60K wounded.
Depends upon whose statistics you believe. I think seeing thousands of tanks and IFVs being videoed cooking up must mean tens of thousands of Russia’s piss poor military are not going to be returning to mother Russia with their loot and stories of rape, torture and murder of innocenet civillians.
Putin is a modern day Hitler and Russia’s army has become a modern day SS.
Care to condemn Russia’s illegal innvasion of Ukraine JohninMK?
Here is some background on the stories of rape you mention showing that lying can definitely achieve objectives. In particular the now shown to be false Russian soldiers rape claims from the Ukraine/US that seem to have influenced some here. This emerged last Monday and is from ZeroHedge in the US.
The top Ukrainian official who was fired for spreading misinformation has admitted that she lied about Russians committing mass rape in order to convince western countries to send more weapons to Ukraine.
Lyudmila Denisova, the former Ukrainian Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights, was removed from her position following a vote of no confidence in the Ukrainian parliament which passed by a margin of 234-to-9.
Parliament member Pavlo Frolov specifically accused Denisova of pushing misinformation that “only harmed Ukraine” in relation to “the numerous details of ‘unnatural sexual offenses’ and child sexual abuses in the occupied territories, which were unsupported by evidence.”
In an interview published by a Ukrainian news outlet, Denisova admitted that her falsehoods had achieved their intended goal.
“When, for example, I spoke in the Italian parliament at the Committee on International Affairs, I heard and saw such fatigue from Ukraine, you know? I talked about terrible things in order to somehow push them to make the decisions that Ukraine and the Ukrainian people need,” she said.
Denisova noted that Italy’s Five Star Movement was originally
“against the provision of weapons to us, but after [her] speech, one of the party leaders… said that they will support [us], including by the provision of weapons.”
Despite the fact that her claims about mass rape were false, they were repeatedly amplified by legacy media outlets like CNN and the Washington Post.
“The media was quick to put this woman’s BS claims out but couldn’t care less about correcting the record,” writes Chris Menahan.
You mean like everything you ever say about Russia?
Have you managed to get a shred of decency about yourself yet and condemn Putins invasion?
Or is that Kremlin gold too good still?
You have demonstrated in multiple comments that you do not condemn this aggression. That is not guesswork.
Agreed.
They are already getting recruitment offices set ablaze from the mere rumour that mobilisation might occur.
So with so many soldiers, including military police and quasi-military police, deployed to the ‘special military operation’, should mobilisation occur how much could Russian authorities actually enforce it?
Russia has a falling population size. Ageing population and hasnt got the manpower reserves it had in WW2. So a full mobilisation might generate 2-3 million in manpower but those are untrained civillians. Ukraine fully mobilised at the outset. Those Ukrainian volunteers are currentky in training and will soon join the fight. Trained and equipped with NATO equipment.
I think unless Russia fully mobilises they are eventually going to lose in Ukraine.
I.m not sure that is true. Every Ukr is armed (gen) and Russia has very low numbers when it comes to Regulars.
Meanwhile, the irregulars of the Donbass and Donets are being malleted.
This is a negative exercise outcome for Russia.
The added problem for Russia is NATO. There is now a NATO army sitting in the Baltic states (take a quick look at a map). Russia cannot go all in on Ukraine as it needs to keep sufficient military assets to counter any move from the Baltics (including militarily strong non NATO states of Finland & Sweden). Russia thought this would be over in a week. NATO is not known for moving fast (too many moving parts), but like a freight train, once it gets going… & Russia has (unintentionally) given it time to get up to speed. NATO already controls the maritime choke points to the Black & Baltic seas. Two large NATO members sit at Russia’s eastern borders. A large NATO army is now sitting on its western border. Russia is now trying to see over both shoulders while trying to concentrate on what’s in front while trying to pretend none of this is happening.
All good points made well. The outcome even now is wholly in N.A.T.O.’s favour. Looking further how is Russia going to hold onto Ukraine? How? What price victory, Mr Putin?
The Chinese have been doing military exercises near the Russian border. The Chinese have long wanted the resources of Siberia.
Agreed, excellent brief assessment 👍!
I dont know Rob. They had 1.5 million volunteers join their armed forces. It is estimated 500,000 are in army training and slowly trickling into frontline units or being trained on NATO supplied kit. Ukraine needs to hold ground whilst these new forces are prepared then could fessibly counter attack with a numerical superiority over Russia.
And cue JohninMk…..
“The glorious Russian Airforce is simply pausing to do the Vat quarter stock take in their justified special operation”
Something along those lines John???
I think it is their R&D tax claim that is holding things up actually?
“The Russian Air Force is showing its green credentials by using old and obsolete munitions instead of throwing them away into landfill”
JohnInMocKva
How it is offsetting the carbon footprint of using the weapons. Surely with the recently revealed eco-friendly-cuddly-white-cat-loving replacement for Peter The Great this would be essential?
He obviously plans to plant forests in the spaces previously occupied by Ukrainian cities. That would explain his wholesale flattening off them.
“See, Moscow is even creating Artificial Reefs in Black Sea for wildlife.”
😂😂😂🤣🤣👍
You sir, win the internet today 👏🏻
You too funny!
Jury Prize.
So true on so many levels.
I watched Chernobyl again last week. There was not much sign of a anything glorious about the poor bastards having to shovel chunks of death off a flat roof. There was a lot of individual heroism and selflessness but the machine itself looked pretty broken down. I don’t imagine much has changed.
You called? I doubt it, I don’t know if they use a VAT like system. All I know on their tax system is the their income tax is a flat rate 13%, a bit different to ours.
When I read the last para of the MoD statement with its third word being “likely” I take it with a pinch of salt recognising that they have a dog in this fight.
I have written before that there is a general suspicion here about the honesty of our Government and ability of the MoD, why suddenly do people believe every word they write?
Unless our intelligence operations have information sources in the heart of Government in Moscow (not beyond the realms of possibility, but would they risk it if they had by putting this out?) anything they claim is pretty much guesswork. If they are basing the claim on reduced usage of these weapons maybe its just that the Russians have fewer targets they want to strike, having hit a significant number already.
Well a bit like your claims then! You still haven’t condemned this illegal war and still won’t offer up your ‘scourges’ of info! So I think I will believe our own MOD before you.
Which you are perfectly entitled to do. I didn’t say in that post anything you needed to believe anyway, apart from the tax rate perhaps.
John any chance of you condemming Putins actions yet?
And the digital tumble weed rolls past……
Apparently it’s because the Russians have run out of viable targets, righto, that’s why the railways roll troops and logistics, airbases turn round Ukrainian fighters and Ukrainian Armoured formations re-equip and train in the West of Ukraine on all that Western equipment!
Ready to push the Russians East and out….
Yep, no viable targets what so ever…..
He won’t, he’s an apologist for war crimes, murder, torture, ape, and ethnic cleansing. That makes him almost as bad as those doing it.
I know, that’s why we need to call him on it every time he posts.
Agreed mate!
Unless I am very much mistaken the UK is not at war with Russia so my views on what they are doing is neither here or there and I as far as I am aware our views do not prevent us posting here.
Care to condemn the illegal invasion of Ukraine? If no condemnation then you clearly support rape, murder of civillians. Looting and all the other war crimes committed by Putins piss poor SS military.
I mean you are a supporter of mass murder and rape, so frankly your views on what they are doing are kind of pertinent.
Airborne (chap’s a complete brick!) re-posted all of Johno’s comments in one go a couple of weeks back. If he isn’t a Moscow shill then he is seriously deluded. Given many opportunities to condemn the Rape of Ukraine he has never responded. Not once.
Reading you with attention pays dividends. ‘they’ ‘we’ and ‘us’. Oh, dear, the mask slipped there Johnski.
Good point, well made.
Is he f…!
Well actually, both the MoD and what you decry as mainstream media ( Sky News ,BBC, print media etc) have been very accurate, honest and objective in their reporting. They accurately reported the build up of Russian forces at Ukraine’s border, the Kremlin’s deflection, the lies of senior Russian diplomats. They objectively noted the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine , filming the Russian ordinance falling on housing and civilian areas in Kyiv. Those pictures weren’t fake news.
The Russian retreat from Kyiv was accurately reflected in their reports, likewise the massacre of civilians by the Russian military in Bucha and surrounding towns. The struggles of the Ukrainian military around the Donbas area haven’t been glossed over either, the loss of Mariupol, Melitopol etc. This is why they’re called mainstream, they report the facts, not baseless propaganda or ‘dog in the fight ‘ that your Russian paymasters have.
You don’t convince anyone here that ‘your government ‘ is represented via MoD press releases. Why you think that anyone, anywhere in this world should believe the lying, self serving bullshit that spills forth from the Kremlin is probably best answered by a clinical psychologist. There hasn’t been one honest statement by Russia about its Ukrainian invasion, and there won’t be one anytime soon.
Any word on the fate of the hundreds, maybe thousands of Russian anti war protesters who were summarily jailed at the start of the war?
Put your ‘special Internet research tools ‘ to good use and find out.
To be fair to the BBC, they have been quite clear in calling out and fact checking a lot of the Kremlin BS.
Which is unusual as they usually just dither and use ‘allegedly’ as a get out.
I’d be pretty clear that if a BBC journalist said they had seen something or verified it that it would most likely be true.
So much of this is helped by the commercial satellite data that enables cross checking of timelines.
The BBC is generally pretty good at reporting, they just get themselves in a mess when reporting about internal polictics because they are scared of the government after both Blair’s goverment and Boris has gone after them and threatened to remove their funding
I would say the BBC is withering on the vine….
The rot of staunch political correctness, backed up by all content run through a Woke committee has put the BBC into a nose dive…
The new Dr Who and his ‘glamorous assistant’ are perfect examples of the BBC leading a pride parade over the edge of a cliff and seemingly surprised and dumbfounded that their viewing figures are crashing through the floor!
They have turned to cheap mass entertainment, even BBC4 is getting the chop, the last channel worth watching in my opinion.
Still, as long as they can keep ticking boxes…
It would seem the only parts of the BBC so far immune is the Foreign Correspondent department, thankfully, it’s the saving grace, still absolutely first rate…
I have to admit I have been very surprised at the accuracy of The Guardian’s reporting on the Rape of Ukraine; very unexpected knowing their international and national views for years past. To be fair, this is never going to be a story with two sides unless you have a serious moral deficiency.
Well our government and intelligence sources correctly predicted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Something that you were still denying even as the Ruskies rusty tanks trundled across the border…
Indeed they did and quite a few observers got that wrong including me.
You and the now ex-head of French intelligence were the only two surprised at Putin’s invasion. We have to wonder if he was in Putin’s pay too.
Very fucking wrong but as it’s pretty irrelevant as you are here to continue to post vomit, and every subsequent post of yours does show a very strong element of nonce supporting behaviour! You seem to be Theo my person (troll/bot) who supports this illegal invasion, aside from the odd RMT union leader and a sad small fat Nazi nonce from NK!
Shakespeare could not have expressed it better! Jane Austen might have had a bit of a struggle though.
😂👍
John my dear Ruskie friend. You got it wrong because you believed in your political paymasters lies. We are just massing 100,000+ troops on the border of a sovereign country along multiple threat axis for “exercises”. Yeah right- Britain and America called out the attack weeks before it happened.
We probably had intelligence intercepts to senior ranking Putin Bots before your head honcho in the basement of the Kremlin did.
SO its not a case of woops I was wrong on your account. You have been proven consistently wrong, inaccurate and frankly full of BS since the invasion begun.
I guess you have to keep posting rubbish to ensure you aren’t carted off to the Ukraine to the frontline where statistically the chances of your death or serious wounding is piss poor. Still its all in the name of saving mother Russia from a bunch of Nazi fascists right? Even though Russia’s army is the one committing the atrocities – lets name them shall we? Rape, looting, indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas, murdering of innocent civilians- which is a crime against humanity by the way and a war crime punishable by death I think. The world is your judge and jury and I hope to god we will have another Nuremberg type trial after this fiasco is finished.
Lets hope Russian loses continue to mount to the level whereby internal pressure in Russia causes a change, we need a change of leadership via a coup in Russia then we can get all of Putin’s commanders and those like you, hiding in the basement of the Kremlin in front of a war crimes tribunal at the Hague and see whether you escape the death penalty, how would you like that Johnski?
More vomit inducing garbage by our resident supporter of evil nonces! Any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine yet?
Not sure how your first sentence could refer to my post you are commenting on. What’s “vomit inducing” about quoting a Russian tax rate and questioning the basis of Government statements, especially when they themselves qualify them by using “likely”?
You know, when German citizens refused to acknowledge the death camps to the allies, the allies took them there.
We can organise a collection for your ticket and Airborne, would I’m sure, organise an insertion method for you.
It would probably give your head a wobble.
Good idea mate, but as a troll he is fully aware of the ongoing Russian agenda in Ukraine.
Your continued support for a Nazi regime controlled by Putin is vomit inducing! Now, as your answering, would you like to answer the oft asked question in regard to your condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine? Come on pal, don’t always be a coward and have the balls to be honest with everyone? Otherwise you just continue to confirm to us all you are a sad troll tosspot, who we are now laughing at every time you post! You are quite simply a sad Putin poodle yapping away at the bigger dogs!
Newsflash, several on here are sure the present Con govt are full of horse manure.
However, we’ve grown up learning to compartmentalise and know the Orcs are full of bull sh!t.
😂👍!
It is not that we believe every word they write but that we won’t trust you further than we could throw you. Ina ballroom full of Russia trolls you would be the one to stand out.
Love it.
‘Loosing badly is the new winning.’
I see in several news articles that the Ukrainians are running short of ammunition for both small and large guns. The Russians may also be running out of precision guided munitions, but they appear to have reverted back to the flatten-it and advance tactic using overpowering artillery firepower. Lacking sufficient “swarming” smart missiles (Brimstone or spear3 for instance), what’s next for the Ukrainians??
I had thought that the supply of weapons from the west would deal with this sort of shortage but the issue is that they use different calibers to us and there’s not enough coming from Soviet era states to replace the basic stocks.
Nothing fancy, but the Russians may simply grind down the Ukrainians by sheer mass. What use capturing cities that are simply piles of rubble would be to the Russkies is anyone’s guess but I suppose Putin does not care about that. It seems to be WW2 again.
AA
Let’s hope we can do something akin to the NLAWS/Javelin effect with FIRES soon.
The big problem for Ukraine seems to be not only are they running out of both 122mm and 152mm ammunition but stocks in the NATO ex WP countries are also nearly all gone leading to the situation where, unless they can capture Russian stocks, their artillery is effectively scrap. If only NATO standard rounds are available, the only artillery they can utilise would be the dribs and drabs of gifts from NATO, which is unlikely to be enough, or in the right place, to stop the Russian advance.
Fortunately, the Russians donated plenty with their early run-and-tow-away gifting program.
To be fair Soviet artillery is pretty good at flattening cities but not very useful against military targets.
So maybe the Russian plan was to help the Ukrainians focus on getting some useful accurate artillery. A master stroke?
The donations seem to be long gone and Russian artillery seems to be playing a major role in the advances forward. The disparity in availability in munitions seems to overcome the accuracy issue. There just isn’t enough NATO guns and ammo being promised and delivered
Maybe not.
Let’s see the carpet bombski approach achieves 1:100 kill rate.
Whereas as precision munition achieved 1:1 or 1:2 depending on skill and a touch of luck.
So 10 units could be a game changer Komrad…….
Is the humidity is in StPB getting a little high now?
Article on the issue of training professional in the use of Arty is three weeks min…
…in their own language…
Not extracting them out of a war situation to another country and then infiltratoring them in.
A lot of people seem to underestimate how much ammo a howitzer can go through. While they are much cheaper than a missile, they still cost quite a lot. Have a quick look at how much 105 (army) & 114 (4.5” – navy) was expended on what was in reality a sideshow Falklands war. While no disrespect to veterans intended, most would agree that this was a limited war (as wars go). For reference, that was something like 8,000 4.5” naval shells & some 17,000 army 105mm shells.
Its a good point- agree artillery uses truly vast amounts of ammo on sustained combat. Each shell has a cost implication to the country firing them to fund -pity Russia is in fact increasing its sovereign wealth throughout this fiasco via energy sales to China and India and yes continuing to sell to EU countries.
A truly impactful intervention would be an immediate and total ban on all Russian gas imports. remove the wealth and income needed for Russia to continue funding its war of conquest.
Lets hope our dearly beloved BoJo’s government have got their eye on the ball and are increasing UK stockpile of artillery, rockets, ammo in general.
Oh I agree- much more is needed- hence see my previous post- NATO needs to go all in for Ukraine- mass production of MLRS, Leopard 2 A6, M777/ Caesar, IFVs- get Ukraine to state what they like and want and we should mass produce and fund it for them. Least we can do seeing as they are fighting and dying for their democracy, freedom from tyranny and fighting against a bunch of rag bag rapists, murders and thieving looting scumbags. Wouldn’t you agree Johnski?
Have you condemned Putins invasion yet?
Interesting piece from a ‘pundit’ on Newsnight this week (Tuesday?). He highlighted that the West (US excepted) had been criminally negligent in the way in which stockpiles had been run down. It is not just the Ukrainians that are running out of ammunition.
3x MLRS is not a lot. How many times can they re-load them.
I fear that a totalitarian state, playing on the old lines, I have just finished Beevors ‘Berlin the Downfall’, could just keep grinding away. There has to be a risk that Ukraine is wholly occupied by the year end. More than content to be told that I am wrong.
You mean like the 15k NLAWS that the UK alone had that destroyed all the decent Russia armour?
You mean the ones that are being manufactured flat out in Belfast right now?
The UK has stocks of quite a few useful goodies that are not widely known about.
Things that are known about are huge stocks of things like laser guided bombs that can be properly guided from F35 or Typhoon or F16/18.
We do have several hundred air launched Storm Shadow – this can be gleaned from ordered less expended. There may also have been some replenishment so it might be closer to 1k but I think replenishment will have stopped once the OSD was fixed.
There are a lot of reloads for the M270’s around and about but they may needs a bit of TLC and upgrading to get the electronics up to 100%.
We have sent somewhere around 4k NLAW from what I read, a little short of the 15k, but still a decent amount
There is little actual evidence that the ‘gifts’ from NATO have done much to slow the Russian advance. I doubt that you are wrong.
Please explain where Warsaw Pact, sorry, Russian forces have steamrollared anything? Orcs are brewing up all over the place and I don.t mean making kava or caj.
Do you or do you not support the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Yes or no?
Give yourself a break you muppet! Any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine yet?
It don’t get why NATO doesn’t pay for a few weapon factories to start mass producing the shells. Yes it’s non standard size, but a weapons company could fix that problem quickly, just a question of adjusting their tooling. Let’s hope something like this is happening on the QT to ensure ammo gets to Ukraine before it’s too late.
It does however feel like the west isn’t 100% commited to helping ukraine, it’s like they are nervous of doing so and give a bit then stop and dither.
Steve
While this is possible with regular rifle ammunition (there is even civilian production of Russian 7.62 ammo), these military often govt owned or controlled factories are primarily geared to produce ammo for their own & allied militaries. Retooling is possible but they also have to take into account that if all this goes wrong, their own military cannot suffer. So they can only change some of their systems. Also artillery shells are a whole different manufacturing process. For example, a 155mm HE shell casing is forged that way, it’s not a whole heap of small parts clicked together. You want to change that to 152mm, you need to redesign & change your process. That’s doable given time. What explosive type is to be used, can you use what you are used to? Same for the propellant. There are no doubt plants in Eastern Europe that still can do this, but for the most part, they are minor players & as NATO members, have been slowly converting to NATO ammo. Things like propellant are not minor. You need to know what effect it will have on targeting & on the gun itself. Some nations like Australia & Canada have well established munitions factories but next to no experience with Soviet style artillery. A two years heads up would have been handy (& a few test guns for trials).
Very clear, thank you. Time is now the key factor.
How delightful for you- you seem pretty keyed up for an individual who does not have any military experience (by your own previous statements) so now you are an expert on logistics and ammunition consumption. or is this just the horse crap that Russia Today is posting?
I’m pretty sure between the Eastern European countries that still use ex soviet era artillery pieces (which are shit by the way) there is enough ammo to keep Ukraine in the fight- the problem is likely that those countries do not want to donate their artillery and ammunition for fear of attack by Russia- after Russia finishes Ukraine that is, which is still being contested and likely going to be a very long drawn out war of attrition.
I think the solution is for NATO to move to a position of all in. eg they fully support Ukraine and give all that is requested in the hope that massive resupply delivers the Ukrainian victory the whole world so desperately wants to see. Whilst going all in, all NATO countries probably should move to a maximum war production capacity and replenish and then double-up on ammunition and heavy artillery, tanks, rocket launchers, SPA’s (M777 is a viable mass production system) IFVs, ATGW, MANPADS etc etc donated to Ukraine. If it becomes a war of industry which I think and hope it should then eventually the NATO countries massive industrial advantage will win. Lets get this done- all in for Ukraine.
“Slava Ukraini”
With UkrAF incurring huge manpower losses, their medical services must be stretched as well as logistics, can NATO not establish field hospitals in NATO countries?
Of course, street fighting must be taking a toll on the orcs, hopefully; how is that going down with the great Russian motherhood?
I was discussing this with a consultant combat medic last week and he was a bit open mouthed at the scale of what the Ukrainians (never mind the Russians) are dealing with assuming a 4:1 injury:kill ratio.
I’m surprised that UK hasn’t been asked to help out given that we have recent expertise and probably some capacity as it would keep skills fresh and focus on defence medicine. As well as being good humanitarian work to do medical stuff.
Good points, well made.
It’s a lot of soldiers lost. Saw it was sitting 100 a day and 400-750 injured a day. As the attackers Russia will be losing 2-4 times as much and that is based on competent soldiers. The numbers won’t be perfectly accurate. There is a person( can’t remember the name) that worked out the killed to injured ratio and other stats for defenders versus attackers etc.
Did Israel supply field hospitals at the beginning?
Yes, those are the losses admitted this week by Kiev, so they could be higher. They also seem to exclude missing in action and surrendered. Losing say 600 off the front line every day plus the logistics to get them out must be a huge drain. That is the best part of 5000 a week, a number very difficult to replace even with the best training system there is and there are indications that more than just item specific training is being done in Poland and Romania.
There are also social media comments that a growing proportion of NCOs/junior officers, many that were trained by the UK, are no longer on the front line leading to a command and especially motivation problem.
It is possible that the Russians, given that they now seem to be using artillery any time they meet any opposition in an obvious attempt to reduce their own casualties, may be suffering far lower levels than the Ukrainians at the receiving end. This tactic change would make any formula based on prior conflicts invalid..
Maybe condemn Putins invasion John?
And Russians undoubtedly far higher, as the Ukrainians have the advantage of being the defenders. And armed by NATO, rather than using soviet-era junk like the poor Russian conscripts are.
All the Russians seem to understand tactic wise is ‘scorched earth’. Do it when they retreat, do it before they advance. Seems to a strange way to ‘liberate’ the Donbas though, flatten it with artillery and kill everyone living there.
With the current Russian tactics it is likely that the defenders are at the disadvantage. The bulk of the Ukrainian forces are still using “soviet-era junk like the poor Russian” are.
What should concern you orcs johnski is the mismanagement of the structure of the Russian army , to many officers and tanks and a shortage of infantry and privates in reduced strength battalions, Russia is running out of infantry let alone infantry with training.
Where did that gem of information come from?
https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/ fill your boots johnski as I said this should worry you orcs more than anything else.
Yet in the post above you were telling us that Ukraine are… “as I have said before, due the the Ukrainian Army being the biggest, best equipped and dug in in Europe”. and in the space of a few hours… “The bulk of the Ukrainian forces are still using “soviet-era junk like the poor Russian” are”.
Using the equipment they had, especially AD doesn’t mean they can’t meet the other criteria.
If you just sit and bombard someone with a superior weight of shells, if your opponent is likewise sitting but can’t reply to the same degree – then the ‘defender’ will be the one losing most. Remember, ‘inaccurate’ artilleryfire in large amounts make it difficult to move around – the fact is, we don’t know Russian losses and probably won’t for another 20 years!
Exactly what the Russians are doing and why I’m saying its the Ukrainians that are suffering most.
More pro Putin vomit! Any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine yet?
This might interest you AB ,Russias poor army structure.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/
Excellent read thank you👍
👍
Try critiquing it then rather than spewing meaningless insults.
I’ve read of at least one NATO country already operating a field hospital on its territory close to the Ukrainian border to treat injured servicemen. Similarly operating a repair facility on NATO territory to repair Ukrainian military vehicles.
Thank you.
This already happens. Germany has not retired its old A310.medevac and is Regularly flying to rzezow to evacuate ukrainian soldiers. Many German military facilities are treating wounded.
Good to know and a really valuable contribution to moral to know there are good treatment options.
Thxs for the heads up.
Thx
Hopefully Ukraine can get some advantages back and make some significant gains on their various battlefronts. I’m getting sick of hearing Putin and his forces seemingly getting away with all their barbarity. There needs to be some knock out punches coming their way to shut these fxxxxxx up dead!
It looks increasingly likely that you may become seriously ill as with every day that passes the Russians move their fronts further into Ukraine and it must be becoming increasingly clear to anyone with a military oriented mind or experience that bits and bobs shipped into the country on a semi random manner over the past few months have done little if anything to stop that move.
Anyone who thinks that at this stage Ukraine can successfully counter attack, let alone land a knockout punch, knows little about what has actually been going on there.
I have said here from the start, to much derision and other insults, there was and is no way that Ukraine can stop the Russians moving as far into Ukraine as they want, be that all the way to the Polish border.
Really! All the way to the Polish border!, WTF with?
JIMK wrote:
At the start of April Moscow pulled all its troops from the north of the Ukraine and redeployed them all (110 BTGs) to the East in which to make short work of the Ukrainians defending their country from the Russian invasion. The Russians attacked the city of Popasna on the 18th March, and supported by the reinforcements from the North, finally took it on the 8th of May. In the month since the Russians have managed to move forward 10 miles.
https://i.postimg.cc/MKzdjmdp/12.jpg
100 Battle groups concentrated in an area roughly 50 miles by 50. Each BTG consists of around 142 vehicles and around 800 troops
10x T72
20 x BMP3
10 x BTR 80
6 x 152 mm 2S19 Msta,
6x BM-21 122mm MLRS,
And the rest support elements such as Pantsir, dedicated anti-tank missile carriers, Engineer support etc.
Lets not forget, the total command of the air that Moscow has , its long range missile delivery ability and yet dispute that huge disparity in military might, the so called super power has only managed to advance 10 miles in 1 month over open ground. Have a butchers on any half decent map there’s nothing to stop Moscow linking up its forces in the south of Luhans and Donbas with its forces in the North, yet the Ukrainians have done just that, its open ground (Topographical map below with Popasna at the bottom)
This article is about how Moscow is running out of smart weaponry, not that it had much to start with, this follows on from it running out of:
Support vehicles (Now using hordes of civy vehicles in that role)
Updated T72/T80/T90 MBTs (Now supplying T62M to the battlefront)
Modern Helmets and infantry weapons (Supplying 1950 kit to new recruits)
When an invading force is having to strip bare museums in which to fight its masters war, what message does that’s end not only to the troops getting supplied with that kit, but to the rest of the world. If you are going to continue to post pro-Russian propaganda , then expect to be corrected by people who decided to look into the subject in a little more detail
Yes but they can still drive to the Polish border next week😂
Boom Farouk shoots and scores once again, we have a sad troll down, sad troll down.
From the start? Was that when you said that Putin wouldn’t invade?
Where’s that condemnation of his invasion by the way?
Obviously you know nothing about war or war “mobilisation” or supply chains or you would not be spouting nonsense. Russia has literally thrown everything the they have including the kitchen sink at Ukrain. They have basically achieved FA. Ukraine is just starting, huge numbers of troops are being trained, new weapons and training are being received. The Russians are bringing 60 year old tanks out of storage and Soviet era missiles. Yeah sounds like Soviet victory to me!
Enjoy your optimism, plus your belief of the propaganda, it won’t last.
Exactly whose propaganda is that? Don’t have to use a brain but it doesn’t hurt.
Oooohh getting your handbag out russkie boy! You do get very defensive and show your true side when you have no answer and you get gripped!
I know why your posting these deranged comments… you’re going to plead insanity at your war-crime trial!
Well, they were stopped. They cannot go as far as they want, they expected to take Kyiv in a few days but they were defeated and had to retreat. They suffered horrific losses trying to cross the Siversky Donets river last month. ,For a supposed superpower, they are making only the most incremental progress in the East at horrific cost to themselves and causing wholesale slaughter to innocent civilians that they are somehow “liberating ”
There are many here who have a ‘ military orientated mind ‘ as you put it and they regularly show you up to be the charlatan that you are. You like to give the impression that you are some kind of logistical/tactical/strategic military/economic genius, but all you are is a nazi supporting Kremlin shill. You don’t know what you’re talking about, a look back on your previous posts over the last 4 months shows how little you really know about what’s going on there.
Remember, nazi Germany thought that their advance throughout Europe was unstoppable until it wasn’t. The counter attacks and knockout punches came sure enough, those high ranking German nazis were very subdued and chastened men as they faced trial in Nuremburg. Russia hasn’t won anything yet. It won’t either.
I am relaying a different view on this conflict which you are entitled to accept or not. So far, whilst I may have been wrong in particular areas I am correct in my forecasts that the Russians would overwhelm the Ukrainians. It is taking a long time, as I have said before, due the the Ukrainian Army being the biggest, best equipped and dug in in Europe.
“It is taking a long time, as I have said before, due the the Ukrainian Army being the biggest, best equipped and dug in in Europe”. Biggest? maybe now conscription has been in place. Best equipped? No! One of the best supplied, maybe yes. One thing this war has shown the world is how weak Russia is. Before February Russia was a world power, now it’s a new North Korea and a paper bear!
There’s differing views and opinions, but there’s also blatant Kremlin propaganda, and you with your gleeful reporting of supposed Russian “successes ” and sneering contempt for Ukraine puts you firmly in the latter camp. Your twisted and delusional narrative has been altered so many times to suit whatever “facts ” you seek to present that you have long since abandoned any pretence of objectivity or truthfulness, everyone here sees that. You seem so proud and enamoured of Russian barbarity and incompetence.
You are more than just wrong in your posts. In many ways your posts resemble Russian tactics; – saturation word salads thrown everywhere in the hope that one or two sentences might almost by statistical default be factual. I call it the ‘stopped watch’ strategy , but like a stopped watch nothing you post can be considered truthful. Conversely, however, unlike you, a stopped watch is correct twice a day.
Not what you said about the Ukrainian army 3 months ago, we can all read your previous posts (would you like me to cut and paste a few again?), and your not relaying a different view you are promoting pro Putin aggression against an independent nation, with an invasion you refuse to condemn, you nobber.
And you know what has actually been going on over there then bell-end?
And who truly knows the whole picture of what’s going on there? Not you, not anybody! We’re all only as good as what we get fed through whatever media channels are available complete with bias, distortion and some obvious truths. I think Ukraine will overcome. They will it and most of world wills it. Russian leadership doesn’t have two moral legs to stand on which is no good for their forces they command or “mislead”. That’s good for Ukraine! If Russia can’t be knocked out then kicked out will have to do!
Mel Gibson isn.t my favourite actor but his representation of an airborne Cav Bn fighting off Regts of Reg NVA with
“… hell boys, were going to win this one!”
Probably reflects the current exercise for the Ukr.s
Oh dear, true feelings coming out now nonce boy! You do get agitated don’t you, what’s up, been threatened with being sent into battle in a 1960s armoured shed T62, unless you convince us all your gen and Russia, and Putin, are in the right here! Fucking arse wipe!
Why are you accusing me now of being gay? You really do come out with some ridiculous comments that bear no connection with what I write here. If you really want to know which country I’m in ask a Mod. If not just shut up and stop spouting the slander.
Oh dear your understanding of English once again comes into question! Gotcha yet again!
Really? Should you really be posting that kind of slander against other posters here?
Nonce In the United Kingdom, nonce is a slang word for a sex offender or child sexual abuser. Although the term traditionally referred specifically to sex offenders, it later become a more general term of abuse approximately synonymous with “idiot”
Just intrigued as you will not condemn murder, rape, looting and torture by Russian forces, just wondering if it’s something you have experience of? But as a 70 year plus person, as you claim, why did you not understand the word and have to lol in a dictionary? Oh dear caught out again, and while we are chatting any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine?
Slightly off-topic but interesting piece on Putin by BBC’s Sarah Rainsford today, re Putin promoting himself as a modern day Peter the Great. A good (if rather sinister) read.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61767191
More like Vlad the Impaler!
Reports are he is very ill so hopefully we can soon call him Vlad the Inhaler.
Nick and John – thanks for your apt comments!
😝👍
It’s not surprising, Putin’s decision to join the KGB was due to him fancying himself as Russian tv spy Max Otto von Stierlitz. It’s no surprise that as Russia’s leader he feels the need to model himself on someone such as Peter the Great.
Both show a fundamental insecurity about his own abilities and a need to prove himself.
And Sean…
No I don’t think he’s modelled any part of his life on me. Shame really, he would have caused less death and destruction, had more lovers, and generally had far more fun 🤷🏻♂️
😄😄😀!!!!
One little problem with his military might tho. Putin think corruption is ok for him and his pals at the top. What he didn’t think was that corruption breeds more corruption. He takes a £10million on a vehicle deal for military. Defence secretary takes a mansion kick back, level under him takes £1million each. Kit ordered is sub par as the kick backs ensured the deal was not the best. The officers receiving the kit at barracks then sell some parts of it and swap good new tyres for cheap knockoffs, guys in the barracks grab what they can to make a few quid as the wages are rubbish and everyone else is doing it. Then it’s noted all the vehicles need a service and some parts changed. On paper it looks like these have been done. Half the barracks get parts of the upgrade done. The other half don’t even bother pretending and pocket the cash. The gps systems from upgrade all go missing over time. The special anti freeze is sold by maintainers and is replaced with cheap rubbish.
All looks good until you need all the vehicles. This is an example of corruption I read that goes on in Russia.
Another was stealing the copper wire from the tanks/vehicles in storage and forging the paper work saying annual maintenance has been done. Guys at maintenance/storage yard aren’t stupid though. they kept 50 of the 500 vehicles maintained for appearances.
You’re absolutely right.
Corruption was rife in the USSR, but it was mostly limited to party officials due to the party’s authoritarian grip on the country. After the fall of Communism and the botched transition to free-market capitalism it exploded and became rampant.
And Putin has a great many connections with organised crime, going back to the days when he was the fixer for the mayor of St Petersburg after he was fired by the KGB.
It’s an interesting read. Putin sees himself as the smartest and best person in the room. He always has been a weird guy. In putins eyes he turned Russia around from decline, strengthened and modernised the military and now his legacy should be put into place by using his superior leadership and military might to expand the Russian empire. In 300 years he expects everyone to be talking about “putin the great” and his statues to adorn the streets in the great new city of StPutinsberg.
Thanks MS. If Putin thinks he’s now got a ‘strengthened and modernised military’ then it hasn’t done at all well against ‘the mouse that roared’ (Ukraine). In reality, his modern forces are now reduced to carpet bombing to achieve their objectives. But then carpet bombing has always been a main wepon of Russian forces.
Slava Ukraini!
New guns on the way!
https://defence-blog.com/poland-signs-record-700m-howitzer-deal-with-ukraine/
interesting combo where are the turrets coming from?
The turrets are built in Poland but based on a technology transfer deal signed with what’s now BAE Systems and are based on the AS-90.
The South Koreans looked at the AS-90 turret design for the highly successful K9 Thunder but I don’t know how much technology transfer occurred for that.
Thanks👍 So the question is why can’t we upgrade our AS 90s?
In three words….no political will.
There can’t be that much wrong with the AS90s that a thorough overhaul, longer barrel and new binoculars (or similar) would not sort.?
AA
Or put the gun/Krab turret on the current hulls. Might be cheaper/easier getting new hulls. Would it be worth using the M777 gun in the turret. Only if it is easy to change the gun part.
It would be a great thank you to Poland for their orders, ships, land ceptor, brimstone vehicle etc etc.
I think keeping the turret and using the South Korean chassis would be better. That was where they made the biggest changes compared to the original AS-90;- they thought it’s turret was the best around and wanted to license it.
Personally I’d give all the AS-90’s to the Ukrainians and order like for like replacements from either Poland (Kraftwerk) or South Korea (K9 Thunder).
Right now I think price is most important for the U.K. mod. That was my thinking behind the Polish turret on the current hulls of the hulls were good. If not the polish use the K9 hull.
€700m for 60 systems. €300m on M777.
The M777 is meant to be the most accurate system around. I think even 14-24 would be a really useful purchase. Chinook can carry it.
Another option is the wheeled BAE Archer out of its Bofors unit, very similar to the French Caesar design.
Hope they can get them ASAP. Seems a good price 700m for 60 systems. Presuming this will include the usual add ins some spares, manuals, shells etc etc.
Why the U.K. MOD doesn’t buy these I don’t know. Always got to buy the gold plated solution. Can even use the current hulls if they are in good shape and are all built to the exact same standards. Put the same gun/systems on a truck based system aswell or M777 systems.
Unless the Polish Army are prepared to sell or loan more of their own systems as part of this order early delivery seems unlikely. Systems like this are made to order and, as we know from our own orders, lead times can be very long, usually years not even months.
Can you maybe state that Putin’s invasion is inhumane?
Hey war-criminal, are you going to admit you lied about Putin not going to invade Ukraine?
That is an issue but war makes things move faster. I’m happy for the U.K. to give half our artillery and rocket systems if more have been ordered.
Any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine yet? Are you sad and embarrassed that a bunch of levied conscripts are handing your russkie rapist mil there arses?
Whats the likely-hood of the Ukrainians cutting the Russian ammunition supply lines?
In the area north of Izyum possibly but they haven’t had much impact yet and no doubt they tried. On the front in general fairly close to zero, there are too many supply routes, both road and rail.
I wouldn’t say zero. It’s tough call to hit supply lines far behind lines. Can russia keep pulling manpower and munitions etc? Would the majority of Russians be willing to fight in Ukraine?
Any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine yet?
That’s one thing that has surprised me. Now they have pushed Russia out of their country near Kherson, Belgorad is within artillery/rocket distance. It is being used as major hub for Russian rail and road logistics, plus the airbase there is used for ground attack aircraft.
Ukraine have done a few cross border raids. But as they are fighting for their existence, I’m still surprised they haven’t done more.
Can only be because the US has said no more x border strikes.
I think you may mean Kharkov not Kherson.
Yes, my bad.
The Russians have now pushed back in, reversing many of those gains, a counter counter assault so to speak.
I would say Belgorad is a weak spot for Russia and both sides recognize that. Once Ukraine gets
MLRS/HIMARS and teams it with TB2. They can knock out the airfield and rail hub surgically.
This is possibly one of the reasons Russia is pushing hard again for Kherson. But to get out of MLRS range they will have push Ukrainian forces back some 30 miles from the border to make sure Belgorad is safe from attack. I guess it will depend on what rockets NATO provides with the MLRS!
Russian definition of precision = <8 miles accuracy and preferably in the same country.
correction, “same continent” 😉
Just saw on that the Ukranians are claiming they are running out of Artillery shells. NATO and the West needs to start pulling its finger out, especially now Putin has literally confirmed this war is an imperialistic land grab.
The complete desire to do little as possible in the West has now even emboldened China to directly threaten war to the US if Taiwan officially declared independence. We could be heading for some dark times.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61764008
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-61768875
Off Topic, but Spanish news reporting Egypt is about to place a 10bn Euro order with Italy for a package of weapons including:
4 more general purpose FREMM frigates, (Though this might also be exercising the two remaining contracted options for a total of four)
A spy sat,
24 Eurofighters from the Italian production line,
20 M346 jet trainers, and
20 patrol boats
Egypt finalizes a $10 billion purchase from Italy that includes 24 Eurofighter fighters (infodefensa.com)
Doesn’t say what version of Typhoon they’re buying. It’s interesting that they have decided to have both Rafale and Typhoon, wonder why? Where the Typhoon is clearly superior to the Rafale don’t you know!
Italian jobs are worth more than French job. -:)
Kudos to the Italian sales guys. Constellation to the US then this package to Egypt.
I would guess Russia used up a lot of their stockpile on Syria and the various other wars they have been involved in recently. It does feel like it’s now a race against the clock for Russia, if they can’t achieve their objectives by the end of the month, or they face being outgunned by all the new equipment coming in to Ukraine.
I wonder how many days of high intensity warfare the UK miltiary could keep going with its stockpiles.
Compared to what is going over the eastern border of Ukraine the amount going over the western border is a drop in the ocean. Further the Russians are shipping fully integrated ‘stuff’ whilst the Ukrainians are having to make do with and train on gear much of which is very different to what they use now.
You guess that Russia has used up a lot of their stockpile, I guess that they are replacing it nearly as fast as they are using it. There is no race against the clock, it could be the reverse in that Russia might be in no hurry as its negotiating position gets better the closer it gets to next winter. They seem quite content to grind down anything or anyone that is thrown against them.
For anyone watching the events I’ll point out the significance of Slavyansk. Not only is it an important city but it is the place that back in 2014 the Donetsk Militia held for 85 days against the Ukrainian Army, time that allowed the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk further time to get organised. So it is hugely significant and is likely to be destroyed again.
The answer to your question is I suspect down to where the event occurred and if the logistics available could actually transfer our stockpiles.
It’s not going to be that easy for Russia to replace stuff, as it has been discovered a lot of their gear relies on US made chips. Ok im sure they will still get access to these via China which ultimately manufactures them, but not in the quantity they may need.
Steve wrote:
Very interesting read on the very subject from the Guardian:
All the cars and parts are needed for the drive to Poland next week 😉
Actually Taiwan has the most advanced silicon manufacturing around, and it’s already said it’s not supplying Russia with anything remotely decent. China will be wary of supplying chips that are then recovered from dud Russian missiles.
True but it’s Chinese chips that were found in the hardware I believe. They were common chips can are used in all sorts of products, which makes them very hard to control supply of. But like you said firms will be extra cautious as they won’t want to be added to sanction lists.
Loads of counterfeit IC’s floating around in China. Often which partly work, but are no good if you need the full functionality of the IC
One of our customers bought some around 10 years ago and whilst they looked perfect there was nothing inside.
The US makes very few semi conductors but does own a lot of IP. Russian firms, like almost everyone one else, used TSMC in Taiwan to make their designs but that source has now stopped. Again, like everyone else, they are probably large users of Arm based processors, it is these that are perhaps the basis of stripping washing machines for semi conductors. Russia does have a couple of manufacturers but they are still on 65nm technology, which may be enough for their military.
If you look at UK military smart weapons, they are all at least a decade old and likely 2 decades or older, if you look at when they were designed. 65mm was probably a dream at the time. Especially when you consider that with stuff that is mission critical you don’t use cutting edge, as you don’t want the bugs.
It would be interesting to know how much of military gear uses off the shelf chips and how much is actually custom stuff. Its the custom stuff that will be difficult to get.
Exactly the point I try to make, but you put better. Apart from sensor input circuits I would think that much of it is standard, you get a better tested component that way. Almost certainly there will be FPGA and ASICs but they are generally standard chips that a unique configuration is loaded into which makes them ‘custom’ at a user not component supplier level, a bit like firmware.
Given the Russians space program, without access to Western products and before TSMC, it would be sensible to assume a very high degree of computing capability there. On the military side you just have to consider the netcentric ability of a group of Onyx before that word existed. No-one should dismiss Russians technical capabilities. Their technical education, still based on the old German methods, is way better than most of the rest of the World.
No, that is why you have commercial, industry and military ranges
Mil spec IC, so very unlikely to be off the shelf. Also processes etc are binned for speed and the best one often keep for military use.
Hey war-criminal, are you going to admit you lied about Putin not invading Ukraine?
FFS you are such an obvious nazi troll it’s not even in doubt for the most casual observer! Do you get excited when you see your Russkie nazis killing civvies or illegal occupy another’s land?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-61768875
Just saw this. Not particularly surprising. The US and NATO doing nothing directly in Ukraine has no doubt emboldened China and given them the impression that the US won’t defend Taiwan as claimed. If I was Japan or South Korea, I would be greatly worried and start increasing defence spending. The US seriously need to step up the rhetoric a bit, they are being made to look like a wuss.
Won’t happen while they have a scared old man in the white house. Can’t go around upsetting an aggressor you know, that would be ww3.
Agreed, though a bit better than Putin-clone trump. We failed |Ukraine massively by declaring(US & UK) we’d not intervene militarily just before Russia invaded. How NOT to deter aggression!
The US just said recently they assist Taiwan. China if anything is worried about the kind of economic backlash that Russia is currently taking from the West.
It’s not all that bad for Russia, they getting more income now then before the sanctions.
And come on. So we are expected to believe that US will “militarily intervene” if China invades Taiwan all whilst the US won’t lead any NATO offensive action to help Ukraine defend against Russia? The may provide Taiwan with some weapon systems and all that, but I doubt they would directly involved of what Biden claims.
Most major FE nations have been very awake & heavily investing in expanding their armed forces for a decade or more, seeing PLAs vast expansion for the dire threat it is. It’s us in the West who need to wake up & smell the coffee, rather than the death wish of more cuts every year.
Russia ‘running out’ of precision weapons? Really?
I think that Russia has reserved precision weapons in case of a war with NATO.
I don’t buy that. It’s like the often mentioned “he is saving his best troops” argument.
To draw comparisons to WW2, this would be like the Nazis invading Poland with the aim of Blitzing the country, getting a bloody nose, giving up on trying to capture Warsaw, deciding to just annex a couple of cities and area near their border and then getting bogged down in WW1 trench warfare to gain inches daily.
They wouldn’t then be launching a lightning strike through the Low Countries and onto Paris after that – even if Hitler had kept his best Panzers and troops back from the invasion of Poland for some bizarre reason.
It would be interesting to know how the war would have played out if Russia hadn’t underestimated Ukraine and sent their best gear at the start and had a plan for logistics.
It seems that early on, Russia had the advantage based on how far they got without all their heavy gear, best troops and supplies. The overestimatation gave ukraine time to regroup and form defensive lines which ultimate led to Russia being defeated in their initial push and losing so much gear, that it doesnt’ look like Russia is now capable of winning.
At this point they are throwing everything they have at ukraine, but having lost so much gear and personnel at the start, they just don’t appear to have it in them to achieve their full goals.
Equally the west don’t appear to be manufacturing new stuff for Ukraine in any quantity, so the ‘gifts’ will no doubt soon run out, as nations don’t want to weaken their own defenses.
Steve wrote:
That’s a topic that will be discussed for many years to come, personally I feel that Moscow did send its best to strike at Kyiv in which to deal a knock outblow to the Ukrainian government and end the conflict before it even started in the mistaken belief that the Ukraine not only couldn’t but wouldn’t fight. Things started to go all Pete tong for Moscow when the Ukrainians sucker punched them and wiped out that Russian Special Forces hit squad sent to the Ukrainian parliament (1500 men killed) then Moscow found out the hard way, that the Ukraine refused to fight them on a symmetrical basis , but rather taking lessons from Afghanistan/Iraq decided to wage a asymmetrical war and bleed the Russian invasion dry, which is exactly what they did in the North.
The loss of so many trained troops in the North has also impacted in the East, where despite the overwhelming superiority in everything , Moscow has made limited gains .(since they reinforced the region with all the troops from the North)
All I see is a lack of 7Ps
I hadn’t realised they had got as far as parliament.
It wasn’t that they didn’t send their best forces, as they sent their elite para troops etc but what they didn’t send was their heavy gear early on, instead sending troops in lightly armored vehicles, which was where the under estimation was. It would have been like us sending just the SAS against the Argentina defenders during the Falklands, it would have gone badly wrong.
I agree. The Russians have barely used the RuAF so huge amounts of their munitions, precision and dumb, will still be in stock. The same with the RuN. As to the RuA, It looks like currently they are using around 100k, if so then at least twice that is held in reserve, mind you it looks like some of it is not actually in reserve but being cycled through Ukraine.
By the time this is over Russia will have the most heavily trained military in near peer to peer combat on the planet. They must be getting worried in Brussels.
We in the West are very vulnerable both militarily and economically.
The depth of the reserves are questionable with the T62M now being seen in action, this is like a 5th tier tank originally built 60 years ago, last modernized 40 years ago then all put into storage 20 years ago. Its equivalent in battlefield combat capability to Britain suddenly pulling out of storage and deploying Conquerors.
Yeah no question that Russia is running out of stuff to throw at the meat grinder, its not just the t62’s they are moving up but also all the make shift armour etc we are seeing, they just don’t have the equipment.
Russia’s tactic have been found massively wanting and it seems to prefer chucking gear at the problem and hoping to outnumber the issue, which worked in ww2, but isnt’ working so well for them this time around. Instead this time they are sufferingly massive loss to their more advanced gear and losing a lot of their command structure.
Even if somehow they do defeat Ukraine, they will have nothing left to be a threat to anyone.
I’d still put my money on the Conqueror (Picture taken at the back of the armoured hall at RAF Duxford)
https://i.postimg.cc/qMmWLvbn/DSC01132-2.jpg
Excellent pic thanks,looking at the Road Wheels it has a touch of T64 about it.
You just get better and better 🙄
The russian air force hasnt’ been used because as found in Syria, they had to rely on dumb bombs and that means flying lower than planes with standoff smart missiles. Flying lower has meant they have been easy picking for ground based air defences. They aren’t holding back the air force because its not needed, they are holding it back because they know it would be a waste of time sending it forward.
They aren’t that worried in Brussels as they are digging trenches in fields around Flanders and the French are rebuilding The Maginot Line in anticipation of the type of warfare Russia is getting experience in.
“…… the most heavily trained military in near peer to peer combat…..”
Ha ha ha. Even allowing for your levels of Putin fanboy delusion, that’s a laughable statement.
Whenever this is over, Russia will be utterly diminished, its military exhausted and spent, reliant on conscripts, mercenaries, obsolete equipment and China. Over the past 3 months it has demonstrated not one iota of skill in combined arms or combat manoeuvring. All it does is saturation artillery attacks on population centres, reducing them to rubble and moves on. Somehow claiming warcrimes as some form of liberation or victory.
If anything, I think that Western military planners are more confident now than at anytime before of NATO capability should those half educated Russian orcs put one toecap across NATO borders. They would get a lesson in sustained combined arms combat that would reduce whatever 1960’s era junk they have left into dust. They’d probably have to try again using massed horses and chariots. They’re that stupid, hopeless and delusional that they probably would.
The only aptitude the Russian military has shown is that of a callous disregard for the lives of civilians and even its own personnel.
The Russian Air force?? It hasn’t been used much, mainly because , well, they can’t. Whether incompetence or inability we’ll let the military experts decide.
As Russia slowly becomes a client state of China, that will be your burden to carry. No one in the West fears Russia anymore.
Hey war criminal, are you going to admit you were either wrong, or lied, about Putin invading Ukraine?
400+’missions a day the Russian airforce is said to have been flying. That’s not hardly used. It really comes down to how much ammunition does Russia hold onto and how much of that is working. It’s had quite a few accidents at munition facilities in last few months. Probably down to moving and preparing munitions. NATO has vast stocks of ammunition but it’s not all available to Ukraine.
It comes down to can Ukraine stop russia from grinding forward as it does. Are they able to counter attack weaker areas and hold the ground without massive losses.
How many losses can Russia take before it decides its had enough. Ukraine can’t end this as they have no where to retreat to.
Such a waste of life. Totally not worth it to stop some Ukrainian nazi or whatever putin said the invasion is for.
Good points. On current experience, in the Donbas where it really matters, Ukraine has shown that, apart from in very heavily preprepared areas, it can neither stop the Russians advancing nor hold ground following a counter attack.
We differ in our views on the level of losses the Russians are currently taking. They really seem intent on minimising their casualties by slowing things right down, not exploiting the open countryside now exposed, just sucking more Ukrainians and NATO supplies into the death grinder that is Russian artillery.
It is indeed a total waste of life and a country’s infrastructure. In my view mainly due to NATO being fixated on moving east and not prepared to accept a package with Ukraine as a neutral country like say Finland.
Wow! So when can we expect
the Orcs to be on Poland’s border then?
l mean they are moving SO fast aren’t they🤔
Why do they need to move quickly?
Really!,🙄
So you would like Ukraine to surrender to an illegal invasion? Ukrainians fault then eh? Naughty Ukraine having a border next to a Nazi state, brought it on themselves didn’t they guv! Give your shite a break you sad sad loner!
No, I am just stating my view that their defeat, one way or another is inevitable. They should have complied with the US/UK/EU/UN etc approved Minsk 2 Protocol, this result was inevitable after that failure.
Ha ha haaaaaa ha ha FFS any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine yet?
Another pointless response by you. Any view on Minsk 2?
Any view on the condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine? This is asked of you by many contributors but you ignore it every time, as you are doing now!
Defeat is inevitable! Just how do you work that out? Even IF the Orcs manage to break out of the Donbas just how far do you think they will get against a VERY pissed off Ukrainian people and stay behind units that will utterly destroy your supply lines and sabotage anything Orc!
Still Polish border here we come I suppose will be your answer🙄
Mind you looking at your vehicle losses so far you might be using T34s if indeed you do get there👍
De-nazification is not my earlier “bullshit” it is one of Moscow’s objectives.
The rest of your comment is just a ramble so stuffed with suppositions it is not worthy of reply.
My comment is accurate. That you have no answer to it is in itself proof. All that you ever have are deflection and suppositories as you cravenly parrot the Kremlin line. You got caught out again changing your twisted narrative.
Some of it was indeed, but much was supposition.
Well isn’t that ironic? You claiming a self evident truth as supposition. Perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised though, supposition, obfuscation, lies, deflection and bullshit are staples of Russian disinformation whether via FSB/GRU or their subsidiary lackeys and fawning little bitches. You simply cannot handle the truth. That’s your cross to carry though.
Agreed, he/it gets caught out time and time again but doesn’t have the nads to back up his garbage!
How do you know? Come on declare your supposed none MSM sources? Nope, thought not!
You could start your voyage of discovery by looking at this thread, he is ex military https://twitter.com/GeromanAT or a more pro western take https://twitter.com/RALee85
whilst this site is a good reflection of US views, they recently did a thread on possible US war fatigue on Ukraine https://www.zerohedge.com/
Jesus Christ is that the best you can do! 1 x twitter user, who posts pro Russian and anti NATO/West comments, in an echo chamber with a few other Nazis! To sum it up, any so called impartial observer who calls another “ an Azov Nazi cock sucker” has no credibility. But if that’s the best you can do so be it! Pathetic!
My reply has gone into Mod approval as there was more than one link.
Oh how fortunate eh? What was it another sad YouTube link?
So is Ukraine, of course. Used nearly all its Soviet era weaponry and now reliant on Western supplies. These are being drip fed in an effort to allow Ukrainian armed forces to accustomise the advanced tech and to mitigate against Russian attacks on storage depots, apparently.
Ukraine reps look tired in this video.
https://www.forces.net/ukraine/defence-secretary-meets-ukraine-president-unannounced-kyiv-visit
As stated earlier, since they’re fighting for NATO as well as themselves, we must give them all we can, blanking Putin’s spurious ‘red lines’.
I suspect we are giving them all we can, or prudently give is probably more accurate. No country can afford to put its own safety at risk but depleting its stocks, even of old stuff, beyond a certain level.
NATO stockpiles are there to destroy Russian Kit. There is no advantage in having it sitting in sheds rather than using it to actually destroy the Russian kit. Every dead Russian tank killed by a NATO round is one fewer round NATO needs to keep in its stockpiles. The job will have been done.
100% 👍🏻
Doesn’t matter if it’s a NATO tank or a Ukrainian tank that kills a Russian tank, it’s one less Russian tank, which is always a good thing.
Hey war-criminal, are you going to admit you were either wrong, or lying about Putin invading Ukraine?
Ukraine is getting a tiny proportion of what nato has. It’s time for nato to move into west Ukraine under humanitarian grounds. Start at 50 miles and proceed forward until Odessa in the south and follow the Dnipro north when away 50-100 miles away from Russians in the south. Tell
Russia not to attack past the line or face being shot down. When Russia leaves Ukraine nato will leave also. Assure putin nato doesn’t want to fire a single round at a Russian and won’t unless attacked first. It was done for Bosnia etc. If putin only wants the Donbas he shouldn’t care. If someone has better ideas please share. Are the free nations just going to watch a country get wiped out because they dared have free and fair elections and follow a path they decided was right for them?
Good idea in theory but the moment NATO forces enter Ukraine they loose Article 5 protection they risk being attacked.
The World is in a different place now from the days of Bosnia and Russia much stronger especially economically.
But Russia’s first act, probably as soon as their Intel tells them the border has been crossed, is virtually certain to be peaceful. It will close the valves on the gas and oil pipes, sending Europe into turmoil and probable collapse.
This will start to become very personal and will affect all of us here. Do you really feel so strongly that, as a starter, you are happy to see your gas and petrol costs go to the moon? For that will be the effect. It will then be followed by rampant inflation destroying our economy. I’m pretty sure that most of Europe’s and our populations are not.
Ukraine is a country that has virtually no bonds to the UK, apart from recent military training which doesn’t really count. It’s a country that perhaps 95% of the UK population knew nothing about only 6 months ago and couldn’t place on a map. Whilst NATO moving further east is of no defensive benefit to us.
You really need to understand that the military aspects of this situation could be a sideshow. This side of nuclear war it is the economic levers that are the real power now and the farce of the sanctions, when we are suffering more than the Russians, demonstrate that all to clearly.
NATO knows this all too well. Why do you think they are pussyfooting around, making maximum PR noise but little operational effect? Maybe not easily accepted here on a military site but as in so many times before, its money that counts and Russia has it and we don’t.
Russia doesn’t have money. The Rouble is little more than ‘funny money ‘ it’s worthless on the international financial system. The world is moving on from Russian oil, maybe India and China will buy it, it’s inevitable that Russia will become a client state of China. You might be suffering in your squalid bedsit in St. Petersburg, but there again, you deserve it.
Agreed, I’ve had recent turds which have a better exchange rate!
Like Posse Comitatus you don’t have a clue on the financial markets either. Just your normal insults not critique again.
Ha ha haaaaaa your even answering me when I’ve replied to another’s post, but still no answer to the question any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine?
Ah, the economic and financial genius who graduated magna cum laude in craven dictator servitude speaks!!
Do you condemn Russia’s aggression? Yes or no.
You clearly don’t have a clue. With the current energy prices Russia is awash with money. The Ruble is currently worth more than it has been for years, just in the last 6 months it has increased in value from around 80 to the US$ to 60. The Western world, the part supporting sanctions, may have to move on from Russian oil but the rest of the World doesn’t seem inclined to. You don’t mention Russian gas, any idea how Europe will move on from that?
If you really think I am in St Petersburg, as opposed to spouting stupid comments, why don’t you ask the Mods here?
You may get a few supporting comments but there must be many here who regard your and others pathetic comments about me with puzzlement.
So, yet again, no real comment on what I post, just suppositions and insults.
https://www.marketplace.org/2022/05/02/how-much-has-putins-war-damaged-russias-economy/amp/ .short term they will be okay but looking to the medium to long Russia looks to be in a lot of trouble.
Pull your head out from Putins arse. What is Russia going to do with all this money it’s supposedly awash with? It cannot purchase any of the essential components it needs for its manufacturing industries. It’s aircraft and automotive sector are virtually shutdown, others will follow. Sanctions against Russia have pushed its economy into the biggest decline in decades, government market controls have artificially and temporarily pushed up the currency value, but you’re not looking at something that’s real- like I said, it’s funny money, and essentially worthless in real terms. Experts expect the Russian economy to contract by 10 % this year, inflation is surging there as well and Russian wages are falling in real terms. So perhaps it’s your Russian masters who don’t have a clue. It’s not as if the ordinary Russian populace would benefit from this supposed money anyway. It would be stolen by Putins gangster cronies, those same people you seem so enamoured with. Oil and gas revenues are denominated in dollars so a strong rouble versus the dollar is going to hit the Russian budget harder.
You’re no economist, and you’re no military strategist either, just a craven apologist for a murderous nazi regime.
What others think of my comments doesn’t bother me, it clearly bothers you though with
what seems like a narcissistic need for attention with the blatant propaganda you post. You haven’t got back to me on what I asked you before and it wasn’t supposition or insult . You didn’t reply because you just can’t, you cannot face uncomfortable truths.
Domestically, Russia is in very poor shape with infrastructural problems that need urgent attention. Many Russians outside a few large cities have abject living standards. Putin has faffed an Emperor’s ransom on this war that could have been spent on improving housing and basic utilities for all the people. Sympathy for the average Russian and the disgraceful asset stripping (here’s looking at you City of London) under Yeltsin has been entirely lost. Putin is a political and military disaster that will curse Russians for decades to come.
On the contrary, I would say with confidence, that the silent majority, myself included, are more puzzled by your stance, which is actually causing the majority of the comments against you.
I won’t insult you, as all are entitled to their opinion and I myself have defended Russia before this kicked off. But no more.
Your silence on certain questions/issues confirms your “guilt” to many, if not to most readers here, and is the reason posters like Airborne, farouk, and Posse C hold your feet to the fire. And regards debate, to farouk in particular you have no repose at all, just silence.
Regards.
I know mate, I should be more mature, as I have often said in the past! But, this troll is so obviously a pro-Putin/invasion/Nazi supporting clown that it just begs a response to his chuff! But it’s usually because once he posts his stupidity he doesn’t have the knowledge or the balls to back up his stance! And if, as he claims to be, a UK citizen then his nonsense is magnified tenfold! I could leave him alone mate and I should but his stupidity and lack of defence of his opinion and stance becomes an amusing pastime! Cheers. PS Farouk is on the ball every time, love his responses!
Mate, you of all people on this site have no need to justify yourself. I’m thoroughly enjoying the posts. Respect.
Thanks for your tolerance mate 👍!
No there aren’t many on here who regard the comments about you with puzzlement, as they just have to read your previous pro-Nazi comments! Would you like me to cut and paste a few for there perusal? Or would you rather ignore any sort of in depth queries or questions about your pro-Putin stance and propaganda? And, while we are here, guess what, any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine yet?
FFS more garbage from a pro-Putin saddo. Do you really believe the shite you peddle or is it an agenda you are required to push, as the more you post the sadder and more noncey you become. Russia is losing at every level, men, machines, morale, economically and internationally, and no amount of “home grown russkie version McDonald’s” opening will change that. Russia is the illegal aggressor here and no amount of shite and distraction posting from you will change that.
So, what did I write that is actually wrong, you now, critique it sentence at a time.
Any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine yet seeing as your replying to me (but only the posts where I didn’t ask the condemnation question) You are so easy to spot troll boy!
My thoughts exactly. Turkey has blocked the Bosporus to warships from Day One back in February. The Russian Mediterranean a fleet cannot get into the Black Sea to assault Odessa as was obviously intended. What has Putin done? Nothing. Stand up to that bastard and call his bluff. He should have been told by the west to his face he is not going to win along time ago.
Do you condemn Russia’s aggression? Yes or no.
The big question is how much had Ukraine kept in reserve. Its had to use a lot of equipment to defend the donbass region, if Russia manages to break down them lines and take the region, what does Ukraine have left in reserve for the next offensive, assuming it comes.
Good question.
As I see it Russia is the invader and is the country in the wrong. Ukraine was no threat to Russia. The Donbas is not part of Russia so any fighting in the region in past few years is a Ukraine issue.
If Russia backed out of Ukraine now peace will come much quicker.
Russia is on borrowed time for being Europe’s main gas supplier. In 10 years Europe will take less than 10% of what it does now. Some bold moves are coming to get off the gas whether it’s switching to other sources, ramping up other energy means etc, renewables, nuclear,
Overall what good things does russia get from the invasion?
Here’s a better one: Do you condemn Russia’s aggression? Yes or no.
One problem. Now Ukraine is running out of Ammo
My understanding is that they have plenty of 155mm ammo but too few guns and plenty of Soviet guns but too little ammo.
Wehrmacht hubris repeated by the west in 2022.What matters in war is who will see things through.Doubt Russian resolve at you peril.
Yeah we saw Russian resolve when they ran back to Belarus in the North after being thoroughly spanked by the Ukrainians.
We saw Russian resolve when troops in one brigade murdered their commander because they’d suffered such heavy losses.
We saw Russian resolve with the retreating tanks having looted washing machines and hot water boilers strapped to them.
We saw Russian resolve in the murdered civilians lying in the streets of towns they’d previously occupied.
And there is the question! Resolve to do what? Liberate supposedly RUssian supporting areas by laying waste to them and then expect to be welcomed with open arms? Resolve to destroy Ukraine in its entirety? Exactly the same questions when Pootin started this madness!
Question is: how much artillery shell stock does the Russian army have left? , let’s hope they run out soon.
Unfortunately I don’t think it matters much in the end. The west will only use precision weapons because of a cultural need for western democracies to be seen to be ensuring civilian deaths are to a minimum. Ukraine has a second imperative for precision weapons in that its fighting on its own soil and cannot just destroy its own infrastructure and population. Russia simply does not give two shits and infact since it’s moved from a swift beheading strategy to an attritional strategy cheap unguided or imprecise weapons are actually just as good or better. Remember bomber command in the Second World War did not just used saturation bombing because high level bombing was imprecise it Also did it purposefully to physical destroy towns to make the road infrastructure impassable as a way to interdict movement as well as destroy the German will to fight on. Russia now needs to destroy infrastructure and shatter towns as part of its attritional strategy, there was also good evidence from WW2 that mass and numbers of bangs has a very significant effect on the enemies willingness and ability to fight, so shed loads of inaccurate fires can work as well or better than a few precision fires..if your aim is to break the enemy.
Its unfortunately why I think in the end Ukriane is going to lose as Putin does not care how many Russian soldiers or Ukraine’s die and he has more soldiers and most importantly the battlefield is Ukraine and so as a nation Ukraine is being reduced to rubble and Russia is not being touched…..it’s not a winnable situation for Ukraine unless 1) Putin is overthrown ( unlikely) 2j the west intervening and going to war ( highly unlikely 3) Putin invades or strikes a nato country ( no chance he’s that stupid) 4) China decides Russia is now so weakened its time to take the Russian Far East ( even poor unlikely as I’m putting my money on a 20 year timescale for that little bomb).
I also have some of the concerns above.
I can imagine a situation where Putin feels he has bitten off enough so just sits back on the defensive. It will take quiet a while for training and the flow of NATO and allied equipment to build the strength needed to attack successfully.
What if he just spends that time demolishing the Ukraine’s cities? We have specifically denied the Ukraine the power to retaliate so why shouldn’t he?
We need to give the Ukraine the power to hit back into Russia. Aircraft. Long range missiles etc.
I believe at the moment if you top up the air and missile attacks it is 2000+ from Russia against an alleged 6 by the Ukraine. They need to be able to hit back into Russia itself.
Agreed, a war like the Ukraine, Russia war is not winnable if russia is able to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure and the Ukraine is unable to touch russian infrastructure, even if they were completely peer nations that would not likely be a winnable war for Ukraine.
Pretty hard for the Ukrainians to do any more damage to the infrastructure in any counterattack that has already been flattened by the orcs in their liberation process!
Some very good analysis of western MLRS precision systems v russian “flatten a grid square” systems are being made in the twitterverse by people who have used these systems.
Basically,
long range russian MLRS is not accurate and its hit distance from aim point at 70km is measures in hundreds of meters hence the use of cluster warheads to saturate a grid square. To saturate the square it will loose off all of its rockets. To reload a long range smerch MLRS it takes between 3-4 hours using a crane truck and rocket transport truck for loading.( Nice static Juicy target!)
Western MLRS is basically accurate to within 10m at 70km per rocket. A reload of one pod of six rockets can be done in maybe 30-45 mins and doesnt need a crane truck. The MLRS picks up and loads its own pods from where ever they have been left on the ground by the supply truck.
A single Western MLRS is going to be hitting around 5 individual targets per pod every hour.
A russian MLRS will be hitting a single target every 4 hours.
When in theatre and in use a single western MLRS is going to be hitting over 20 times the targets a single russian MLRS can hit in the same time frame. Thats going to lead to a lot of scrap iron.
Impressive accuracy, how does it achieve it?
Have a fucking guess you nonce!
Thank you Reverend!
Nice one buddy. But don’t forget, anything up to 30% of the cluster munitions won’t detonate and that was for Western munitions. How well do the Russian ones perform? It might be the reason their regiments have so many launchers compared to NATO, to make sure an area is covered.
Interesting comparison. Can they get enough launchers and how many do they need is my question. It seems there are thousands upon thousands of rockets ready to go. Maybe the old army drops vehicles just being retired could be gifted. They do the MLRS pods(I think)
So the launcher gets targets, fires on them, then moves to reload area, picks up pods and fires again. A launcher can be driving up and down a line grabbing new pods when required.
Really hope Russia has had enough soon and goes back home. Such a waste of life.
More good news for the orcs!
https://defence-blog.com/russia-lost-significant-number-of-military-vehicles-in-its-invasion-of-ukraine/
Still going to plan comrade Johnny?
As is well known, plans don’t often age well in wars. Yes for now obvious reasons the Russian’s plans didn’t survive long but the new ones seem to have been working OK for them for a few weeks now.
Yep really well as Farouk has pointed out to you a 10 mile advance sustaining these casualties against a mainly infantry oriented army is an outstanding effort! You mentioned how Brussels will be shaking in their boots looking at your ‘progress’ but just think of the losses that would be inflicted by NATO armies using their full range of weapons available, Aircraft,helicopter gunships,long range artillery,MLRS etc need I go on?
You think they had a plan? I think half of them thought they were going for a drive in countryside
Does that excite you?
Do you condemn Russia’s war of aggression? Yes or no.
Guts me that Russia is effectively free to inflict widespread destruction whilst we practically tie Ukraines hands behind their back.
I wonder if the Russians have installed a GPS/GLONASS unit to improve the Kh-22 accuracy (as in a cellphone)
You just know that you’ve been watching too much Ukraine war news when the new Russian “McDonalds” logo looks like a Buk missile launcher!
My amateur prediction for the next thirty days. Russia is clearly going to give itself a hernia and it seems that everything they have is totally committed to the Luhansk sector. It does not seem sustainable even in the short term for the Russians and the Ukrainians, so I can see this running to a stalemate in the next week or so as the Russians just lose all momentum. Then, slowly over the next few months Ukraine starts to push them out of the South and North as Russias economy sinks and can no longer support the war. Putin claims a win and then blames Ukraine for continuing the war.
Interesting article showing extent of corruption;
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russians_blow_themselves_up_trying_to_thwart_ukraines_offensive_with_70_year_old_mines_ukraines_intelligence-3231.html
It is just me who thinks the US is throttling the supply of MLRS and 155mm artillery in order to engineer a compromise settlement of a split Ukraine where Russia gets Donbas and Crimea?
no its not just you – I think this has been on the cards since the start of the conflict.
Maybe there was a brief window where a difference could and shoud have been made and that surprised the west – but that has now shut, to both our shame …and to our chagrin.
I’m sure they will be able to buy more with all the money they are getting from gas and oil sales to Germany and the rest of the EU. Reports say Russia has record revenues from the sale of these. Ugh
Whatever the reality of the reduction in precision weapons, the Putin has the numbers as we may see to bludgeon Uktaine with almost WW1 brutality with bog standard and dumb bombs and massed artillery.
Until such time as Ukraine receives what is really necessary in large numbers from the UK and others, unfortunately time may not be a luxury that that brave nation can afford.
Unlike Ras-Putin, Zelensky does not sugar the pill of the real problems facing his country without the bombast and fascism and hypocrisy of the Russian bear
further proof that russia couldn’t afford a conflict with NATO
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare interesting reading given the circumstances.