The latest Defence Intelligence update from the UK Ministry of Defence indicates that Russia may face difficulties in finding enough troops to form even a single new army, despite recent attempts to strengthen its ground forces amid ongoing tensions with Ukraine.
The Defence Intelligence report, released today, suggests that in the past two months, Russia has likely begun forming major new military formations to bolster its ground forces. These include the 25th Combined Arms Army.
“Over the last two months, Russia has likely started forming up major new formations to add depth to its ground forces. These include the 25th Combined Arms Army,” the report notes.
The intelligence update further states that, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has primarily relied on deploying mobilised reservists to back-fill existing formations or be part of territorial defence infantry regiments. The creation of new all-arms organisations, such as combined arms armies intended to operate as self-sufficient forces, has been uncommon.
There have been exceptions to this approach, notably the 3rd Army Corps formed in summer 2022.
However, the report suggests that this unit has largely underperformed: “An exception to this was the 3rd Army Corps created in summer 2022, which has generally performed poorly.”
While these new formations are expected to act as a reserve force in Ukraine, the report indicates that Russia’s long-term aspiration is to enhance its forces facing NATO.
“In the longer term, Russia aspires to strengthen its forces facing NATO,” the report explains.
However, despite these efforts, the Defence Intelligence update underscores a crucial challenge for Russia: its limited ability to mobilise additional troops to support these new formations.
“Without a major new wave of mandatory mobilisation, Russia is unlikely to find enough new troops to resource even one new army,” the report concludes.
The threat of a land war with Russia is disappearing rapidly while the multi domain threat from China surges ahead. Politicians please note.
Hi Geoff, I wouldn’t write Russia’s land forces off just, they could be restocking on the side from North Korea, China, Iran and some friendly Stan’s” and even getting extra personnel from some remaining “prison-stock” or forced conscription.
Fair comment. I was really thinking about where we spend our money.🙄
Absolutely agree. F35s and SSNs is where the money needs to go right now. SSN Aukus is a great start as Oz are even keener than us to get them in the water. Max out the Carriers with F35B as these are the only other assets we can bring to bear on China in the short term. The only thing that is going to stop China invading Taiwan is the fear of the AUKUS response.
The rest of Europe has more than enough conventional weapons to deal with Russia and cohesion is strong. All they need from UK is the nuclear deterrent, ASW/HK SSN in the North Atlantic and specialist light forces.
Im going to say it in a ‘what do we need least’ spirit, i think trying to generate an Armoured or Armd/Mech hybrid Div capability is not money well spent.
Even ignoring TR3 I’m not sure the present F-35B build rate would allow us to max out the carriers in time.
Perhaps we should hurry the catapult plans and shelve the ‘loyal wingman’ idea for the time being in favour of swarms of dumber loitering munitions, essentially turning the carrier into a cruiser.
Ironically probably something like Ocean but with increased power generation would do that job better than the carriers at a considerably reduced cost.
I can’t agree more. I respect UK choice of having 2 carriers. Though 2 carriers oriented on waging war against ground target is not that smart. If war comes back in Asia, the main goal of a Navy can only be to fight another navy. UK and France cannot invade China, even with US.
So to win sea war, you need early warning planes and a fighter bomber with a good payload and decent range, things the curent configuration with F35 cannot do.
We can sell you Rafale F5. UK could participate in the developpement of a new sea based loyal wingman. And with 3 Catobar and bases (french bases in Corsica, Djibouti, EAU, British base in Cyprus) UK and France will rule the seas until Indian Ocean. That would definitaly make sens.
We coud then reduce the burden supported by our ally, USA navy. They cannot easily support military forces in mediterranean sea, red sea and Idian Ocean, since they have to face Chineese navy.
I agree with everything you have said. We can have a small highly equipped and highly mobile army but unless the budget increases dramatically the R.N. and R.A.F have to get the money. I notice the exchange with Tomartyr. The idea of a multi domain carrier is something I have boring people (?) with for about two years. I don’t know if we can do anything about SSK’s in the short term but we can look at seeding up the idea of conventional boats,, manned or un-manned.
The ‘Stan’s are firmly staying out of this…and China has avoided lethal help…
The only help DPRK or Iran can offer is artillery rounds….but there is a big problem for the Russian’s there…both can provide 122mm and 152mm shells and 122mm rockets, but neither their 122 or 152 will help the Russian’s much in counter battery terms…122 is far too short ranged (the Russian shortages in this calibre were due to them ceasing production as they planned to phase out entirely, they haven’t made 122 shell in years) and the 152 shell they use is shorter ranged and for the really old-ex Soviet guns, not MSTA-S, MSTA-B or Giantsint B or S…both nations primarily use 155 (Iran) or 130, 170 or other odd calibres for range (DPRK). They also tend to use more 107mm rockets than 122mm…the amount they can supply might not be colossal…although DPRK has the metallurgy industry to produce for them.
Apart from that and Shahed there is little they can offer in volume…
Ah, but Russia/Soviets bounces back to conduct more aggressive land wars after past land wars, including defeats.
They haven’t won a land war since 1945 that I can think of Graham. They have exported a lot of evil around the world by proxy and haven’t achieved a thing other than making “friends” with the rest of the thugs around the world.
I totally agree. Evil empires aren’t usually successful empires. Whenever the Russo-Ukraine war ends and whoever one day replaces Putin, the Russian forces will slowly rebuild, re-equip and their President will look for another target, an easier one next time – Moldova?
Rockall 💂
He’s hoping we hear the headlines one morning that Putin troops have had enough and started to lay there Arms down and run off .OR better still Putin falls out the window with a little help of course.🙏
Russia will be the same after Putin.
Well you would know
I hate to say it but this time he’s probably right. A hundred years of communism and with a couple of short lived exceptions Russia has had one thug after another. I’m not sure whether the ordinary people actually care.
I can definitely see a successor doing one of three things:
1) calling for a ceasefire for negotiations in bad faith.
2) withdrawing from some or all occupied areas without dropping their ‘claim’ to the territories.
3) do an Argentina and withdraw while committing to pursuing the issue through ‘diplomatic’ means
I think we’ll see a Korean type standoff. I bet Ukraine gets Crimea back, seems near impossible to hold without a bridge and water from the mainland and Russia gets a demilitarised zone in the East.
Then everyone arms up because no one trusts the other and the border becomes part of a new iron curtain falling between the BRICS / Western worlds.
Yes. Your right. In fact I think you may have put them in order of likelihood, the most likely being (1). Probably try to drag it out for years and try to weaken European resolve on sanctions and so on. The UK, USA and the EU have to stand firm no long how long it takes.
Hopefully chronological order.
👍
Insider information no doubt, has Putin already earmarked a lacky, someone of the same deranged, mad, psychopathic tendency as him to take over? I’m asking you Frost as you seem to live in the basement of the Kremlin.
I agree with him just for once, Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, Tzar Nicholas II, Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin and now Putin. The Russians are by their very nature very patriotic (no problem with that as it is genuine), and scared Shitless of the West encroaching on them.
Unfortunately for for us and their neighbours that combined with tye “Mother Russia” peddled by every megalomaniac going, makes them fall for it every time.
Russia is Russia so we need to find an amicable peace that addresses their National pride and reduces their great of us.
That amicable peace would be Crimea and a land bridge to it.
Ukraine would never except that, nor would any sensible nation do so either. It’s you trying to suggest another land grab yet again and you know it !
Look at the geography and exactly 1 second after peace, both sides will fortify the isthmus and their borders so not even a sparrow could get through. Their will be zilch traffic between Russia and Ukraine.
Besides which the water of the Kerch straits would be wholly Russian and they can just build a 2nd Bigger Bridge. It works quite nicely for Wales.
Ukraine won’t accept crimea and land bridge just now. In a few years it will depend how desperate they are to end the conflict. I doubt it will come to that desperation and may well be Russia that’s desperate to get out.
A lot of Russians especially the younger generations are not so evil west thinking.
Sanctions May well have a bigger effect the longer they are in place. That tends to be the case. Russia has become china’s bestie with exports up 100 percent but it’s not the same for traffic going to russia. So russia has become depended on China while China isn’t.
Perhaps throw in Finland and Poland to appease the Russians too??
Let Pitler have his victory parade……
Blimey Frosty, a bold move to get that Lada promotion!
Any takers for Frosties Land grab solution, come on guys that Lada is so close he can almost smell those plastic seats and feel the rattly four speed box…..
It’s not that simple. Russia doesn’t need a land bridge, quite the opposite, it needs a canal: namely the North Crimean Canal to supply fresh water.
Unfortunately iirc this also provides fresh water to Kerson Oblast so you can’t give it to either side without creating an imbalance that would inevitably lead to war.
This is why both sides goals are so maximalist: he who controls Kerson controls Crimea, the water must flow.
I will say this again, please provide 1 example of anything pro russian I have posted?
Sometimes what u have written came across that way a bit but not all of what u have written. Anyway it’s good to have a range of opinions right or wrong.
Deja vu all over again …?
Still corrupt, full of Nazis and fascists and incapable of seeing reality and for the vast majority of the population remaining as poor as ever. yes I agree.
Funny that , probably the russian media portrays the west in similar apocalyptic terms
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/04/05/russia-is-using-woke-narratives-to-discredit-britain/
both are silly propaganda- but it hooks too many both there and here
It does but fortunately those of us who have traveled the world, and still do so have a tendency not to fall for such shit, but it also gives us/you the knowledge to back up our asset is and experience.
The only way this European war will end will be when Putin leaves office – and it might be through that window, as you say!
A bit confusing to say that ‘Russia may face difficulties in finding enough troops to form even a single new army’ and then to say that “Russia has likely started forming up major new formations to add depth to its ground forces. These include the 25th Combined Arms Army”
The people who write the headlines arent the same as those real journalists who write the stories.
I would think the equipment for a new combined Arms Army is the issue rather than the soldier
Let’s hope this is true. The sooner Mr Putin gives up, the better for everyone.
Crimea is going to be the sticking point. Everything else he can spin as a victory, but leaving Crimea can’t be spun. I wonder if a Hong-Kong style long lease might be the way forward. He’ll also want to keep the land bridge to Russia and he’ll want security of water supply from the Dnieper (which he may have temporarily lost when the dam went), and it will take a long time before he is desperate enough to give up on either of these.
It seems that we need to increase our help to Ukraine to let it break through and cut the land bridge. Zelensky is right. What we are doing at the moment isn’t enough, and an attritional meat grinder isn’t what we should be supporting. I have no idea how we can increase our support, given our financially focused Prime Minister and the imminent departure of BW. Anyone with thoughts on this?
Actually giving the Ukrainians the F16s that have been asking for from the beginning?
Giving them some proper air fuel weapons for minefield clearance.
I think we are pretty much giving the Ukrainians all the NATO 155mm production – via stock rotation – although new lines are being set up.
I’ve been saying this from the start give them fighter jets, if Ukraine had more airpower it would have taken even bigger chunks out of retreating Russian forces last year, stopped them building up dense lines of defences and helped with the counter offensive. The stupidity is we’ve now agreed, if the west made the decision 18 months ago they’d be competent operator by now.
It is screamingly obvious that if you allow an enemy to regroup and fortify they errr regroup and fortify which is why you go in super hard to start with….
But this doesn’t appear to have been obvious across the pond – if Doris had still been in No 10 he might have been more persuasive.
Yep for all his faults I think Johnson did have some drive regards Ukraine or at least ousting Russia from it.
Sunak- well he just does as he’s told.
Fine but what could he give them. If we still had the Tonka’s Christ they would have been useful. But a couple of early Typhoons ??
IMHO is we seriously want to help Ukraine we should ask all those with Grypens to donate and back fill them with new ones.
They are pretty well designed from scratch to mess with Russians with the least hassle.
Best option is the F16.
Loads around in Europe and even more in the US. Most of the European ones are slated to retire soon or have retired.
These are not niche and available now in numbers.
The issue is more how to de-NATO them by removing the sensitive bits.
Typhoon is far too hard to maintain and various bits in T1 such as the engines and engine intake ducts are pretty sensitive.
Let’s put it this way F16 is enough aircraft to do the job and they can have the mass they desire.
Not giving them F16 earlier was insane as it allowed the Russians to construct their WW2 anti tank defences on a massive scale that Organisation Todt would have been proud of.
The only question is where are the caverns that the Russians are digging….
While not disagreeing with your points, I feel that there is one issue with the F16’s that’s being overlooked. The F16, along with Typhoon/Rafale/F18 etc are used by Nato/Western forces in an integrated combined arms manner, with a full panoply of AAR, AEW, EW, JTAC, ISTAR etc. It’s trained and exercised constantly, becoming an embedded, generational skill. It’s what gives Western Air power Its ‘shock and awe’ reputation. If Nato combat aircraft were involved, then the skies above Ukraine would be thick with air launched munitions together with complete air supremacy. I’m not sure that Ukraine would be able to replicate that scenario. I’m not saying don’t give them the planes, I’m just not sure they’ll be as big a game changer.
Yes. I just posted something similar before having read your post. I agree it’s not a game-changer this year, but it’s a statement about a commitment to the long run. Of course, we don’t have any F-16s so they are not something we can give. Typhoons would be even tougher to integrate and the Tranche 1’s may need an upgrade if I understand their limitations correctly (and I probably don’t).
I’m not saying we shouldn’t give them fighters, but that’s not going to get them anywhere right now. It’s more a statement that if Ukraine fails this year, it’s already preparing for next year. Thermobarics are an interesting choice if we still have some. I think that, like cluster bombing, it could help clear areas quickly. Speed is important as Russians can react to a slow push.
You can’t beat training and experience, and many of the Ukraine forces haven’t had enough of either. Whatever we give them, if it’s to make a difference this year, has to be simple to apply and fit in with a simpler way of fighting. Complex combined manoeuvers are difficult for fresh slightly trained troops and integrating new complex equipment, like fighter jets, is out of the question for the attack. We saw that even Russia can’t integrate air power at scale.
Slight change don’t give it up instead ensure the agreement has UN monitored referendum in 3-5 years to re-join Ukraine. With Ukraine is likely to become a more attractive place to live than Russia after a few years of peace. If it get EU and NATO membership then its going to be even more attractive. There would be a high % Ukraine would get the entire territory back. A level of sanctions remain in place until the UN have signed off that the referendum took place and that it was free and fair.
No frostski, nobody supports allowing you scumbags to keep anything.
Zelensky will never gift Russia a land bridge. The first key to ending the war is for Putin to understand that, which he won’t until it’s gone, so go it must.
Some thoughts. The US strategy may not be to enable Zelensky to restore Ukraine to its pre 2014 boundaries but rather to remove Putin and replace him with a more flexible leader who will rein in Wagner and abandon Putin’s ambitions for a ‘new world order’. I think they are trying to force him to the negotiating table before the next US elections, if necessary by rationing military aid. I think Ukrainian forces will reach reach the Sea of Azov and break the land bridge with the armour and artillery they have before the end of summer. I do wonder if recapturing Mariupol isn’t of more emotional importance to Ukraine than Crimea.
As soon as the Russian state comes under threat, generatating numbers will not be an issue. Russian people don’t want to be westernised. Ukraine people do. That is the difference. Russian people have enjoyed a lengthy period of stability under Putin, and it’s people will fight for that to continue. There will be no pro western reform in Russia like there was in the 90s.
Again you would know
Russian people don’t want to be westernised.
Hmm I’ve worked with and known a few Russians over the years and they are about as western as the come. Don’t you remember Levi jeans were the number one smuggled item in to Russia and the long queues for the first McD’s in Moscow?
Lada sold 1000s of cars in the UK?
Sold being the correct term! Cheap range of motors bought just to get about, in Russia top of the range gift for families of dead Nazis!
Heard of Dacia ? Apparently lots of Brits love a cheap simple car, and they arent socialists – or the N word you erroneously use because thats what the maga crowd in US do
Russia is full of Nazis, get a grip, I take it you don’t keep up with the Russian football league then! I will use that terminology when I deem it appropriate to the conversation so do t try to expand and presume that I have a similar view as the clowns across the pond, that just demeans yourself as it appears like a cheap shot and a deflection from having to answer the post! Anyway I’m waiting for Frosty to answer, why did you do it for him?
A former BA steward were you Mr Airborne ?
No such luck, I don’t have enough makeup! What about you?
Oh and I forgot to mention Dacia is Romanian, and the conversation was about Russians. So why mention Dacia? Sorry for the late rebuke, perusing the posts and thought I could assist your general knowledge (Lada, as frosty was getting excited about is Russian).
Eastern european, close enough
This isnt a classroom exercise where grades are lower because the question ‘isnt answered’
Go with the flow
No you maybe go with the subject matter and posts in hand, that way your comments will be more relevant to the conversation.
“Russian people don’t want to be westernised. Ukraine people do. That is the difference.”
That is a profound perspective and you might well be right. A thousand years of Russian Orthodoxy and feudal rule under the Tsars ( in which I include Putin) versus the European experience of Catholicism, Reformation, Enlightenment, revolutions and wars combined with a huge and isolated geography might well have formed a people with a psyche very different to ours. I believe the western part of Ukraine was at one time part of the Polish empire; even today the west of Ukraine is Catholic. It has a European outward looking mindset, while east does look towards the Orthodox church in Moscow for leadership. Orthodox Kyiv has remembered that the city was in fact evangelised before Moscow, in fact before the great schism of 1054. Kyiv has chosen to repudiate the spiritual leadership of Moscow which was forced upon it in 1685, to claim its independence and to look west. I believe that this year in solidarity with their catholic countrymen and women, the Kyiv orthodox church decided to change to date of Easter to the date in catholic calendar. Greece is an example of an Orthodox country which has chosen to look to the west and the EU. As the saying goes, all roads lead to Constantinople. 🙂
Totally agree
The Wester part of Ukraine was Polish till Mr Stalin carved it all up. Lviv was Lvov.
It was assigned from defeated Austria to Russia at the Treaty of Versailles as the population was ukrainian speaking not polish
( The Ukraine’s wanted their own mega state too but turned down, like the kurds)
Anyway a 1919-1920 border war between Poland and Russia meant the poles invaded to gain this as their territory ( historically it was part of Poland-Lithuania for 400 years before the division of Poland)
Stalin just got back what was supposed to be Soviet territory- almost exactly the same Curzon line border decided at Versailles
There was a reason Gorbachev and Yeltsin went down that route and why Putin thought it a mistake. For all Yeltsin’s populism, those reasons have nothing to do with what the Russian people want.
They want what we all want: the chance to live and bring up our families, free from deprivation. Whether that’s under a Western, socialist or autocratic system won’t be decided by this conflict. The Russian state isn’t under threat, even if Mr Putin wrongly equates Russia with himself.
Stability was long the Russian watchword, but it was clear even before the invasion that it hasn’t been working. Putin has nothing else left in his toolkit. He won’t go back to the situation he had with Medvedev much less retire gracefully, and reform is a dirty word. Attacking Ukraine has a nice side effect of distracting the people from the 2024 elections that may never come. The lion roars. Potestas gratia potestatis.
Russian people dont want to be westernised because they are living in a Putin infested bubble of misinformation, inaccuracy and corruption. The moment the bubble is popped is the moment Russians will wake up and smell the coffee.
The average uneducated Russian peasant believes entirely the misinformation and lies they are sold by Russia today and all the stinky pile of shite that is the Russian state.
A country invaded Ukraine not just Putin, Russia is responsible for this. There is a sick mindset / outlook existing since the tsars. Gulags , serfdom , poisonings, Stalin ..
Obviously you missed the history of the British empire while at high school, then there was the French , the Dutch and Belgians all worse as colonists
Yup we accepted we couldn’t have an empire after suez, Russia still believes or retains resentment.
Of course. But its complicated as say 1/3 of ukraine is ethnic russian
Nato of course does occupy another countrys province too, Kosovo is still part of serbia ( but most arent serbs) and thus for 20 years its a nato protectorate with the US Army National guard being the the protectors.
Surprisngly few know this
Another example is Nato member Turkeys occupation of 1/3 of Cyprus– which is a Commonwealth member and now part of EU.
Wheres the harsh sanctions against Turkey for its illegal invasion(1973) and forcing them out from its EU brethren ?
Racist view.
How is that a racist view? Oh dear yet another clown jumping on the bandwagon of racism, not understanding the term, its implementation and definition. Also it does seem that you are confusing nationalism with racism.
“average uneducated Russian peasant” is a totally racist comment, you don’t agree?
Nope, some factual terminology. Russians, live in Russia, there are peasants, and they are mostly uneducated. Average gives a means rage, some will be worse some better education. So, er no, not a racist comment at all, quite factual in fact my little troll!
Ok average obese fake middle class westerner.
Agreed, many of those, another descriptive assessment of certain people. Did you think that would annoy grown ups? Wow, playground trolling, nice.
‘middle class’ was bit below the belt Borners! Hit him with your brolly!
Agreed mate as no longer any such thing, as he must realise I am spiffingly upper class, and no longer integrate with the lower order, toodle pip old chap 😂👍
You are 100 years out of date my friend
100 mill live in major cities , of the 35 mill who live in countryside a large portion are town dwellers
And? We weren’t discussing numbers we were discussing terminology, so not sure why you responded with figures? Re read my reply to Frosty cheers.
An American observer wrote that with something like 14 nationalities, 7 religions and dietary requirements, he had no idea how these were moulded into an Army. Only the British could have made the 8th Army an effective fighting force and it wasn’t through ‘racism’.
Agreed mate 👍
Not racist just stating facts.
If the British are racists what are Russians? Answer is of course nazi fascists trying to occupy a democratic and sovereign country by force of arms and oppression. Russia will lose for 2 reasons. 1) the Ukrainian will to fight and remain free and democratic.
2) the Russian’s armed forces are actually pretty crap at fighting wars. Seemingly incapable of establishing air superiority. Unable to conduct any form of combined arms operations and being piss poorly trained, deployed or led.
I await your no doubt highly accurate and truthful response Frostkin.
Ps how’s the weather in Moscow?
“As soon as the Russian state comes under threat, generatating numbers will not be an issue.” And its generating Comrade!
CORRECT
https://cdn2.opendemocracy.net/media/images/132351037_8LjHPrK.width-800.jpg
To be fair I don’t think I’d argue with any one of them 🧓.
My mom is in that picture
My “mother” is in that picture.
She will no doubt fair much better than the men.
Have trouble differentiating between the men and the women!!!!!
Which ones are the women?
Haha
That’s all true what you say, but as you say also, Ukraine does want to be Westernised so Russia should piss off and leave them to it. Western governments don’t care whether Russia reforms but cares if its huge nuclear arsenal is in safe hands and not not launched by decision or by incompetence. Same by the way applies to the US, no one wants those things going off but Putin hints at it all the time. Western companies would like to Westernise Russia and the 2 shouldn’t be confused, Starbucks isn’t western foreign policy but is a consequence of open markets, but if Russia wants to be an insular petrol station then fine, who cares, but don’t invade neighbours who are more enlightened.
‘Russian people have enjoyed a lengthy period of stability under Putin …’
Nothing wrong with that apart from ‘enjoyed’, ‘people’ and ‘stability’.
Has life in Russia got better or worse after the fall of the Berlin Wall? Has life in the UK got better or worse since Brexit?
Brexit yaaaaaawn, your weakness and anger shows quite easily when rattled and challenged!
You live in Russia, you tell us.
My life has not changed one bit apart from ceasing to pay the B.B.C. licence tax.
In short I am certain I am better off here than there.
Oh dear, you seem to have that wrong…..Russians couldn’t wait for all the western companies, food, clothing, vehicles, engineering, etc etc to pop up and sell them anything from burgers to bags! Stop the agenda and make an effort at reality.
Every single westerner on the planet is totally and utterly dependent on the east. The US and EU do not have the labour markets to manufacture smart phones for example. Capitalism is not self sustainable. Russia, due to isolation from the west, will look to the east to export its oil. This will actually achieve the opposite to what sanctions promised. It will usher in a new age of global power that can thrive without the EU and America.
That’s your version of an agenda you are required to push! Try not to pretend it’s fact, good lad.
Mmm sell its oil! At the price of Urals oil now it’s hardly worth getting out of the ground! China is looking on here and licking its lips to reclaim its northern provinces as they see them.
This just silly talk. The war in Ukraine is a disaster for both sides. The declared aims for Russia’s aggression have resulted in two new advanced countries joining N.A.T.O. Others, already members of this democratic bloc, are re-arming at rates no American President (including Donal J. Trump) could compel them to undertake. If that is success where you are, I would hate to see failure.
Well I think you’ve been on the cheap vodka, tell me what rank are you in the bureau of fantasies and F… wits?
Huh?😆
What about:
Uk should take all Russian assets in London particularly now Putin has blocked grain exports again.
Agree, take the assets, sell them off and use those revenue sources to fund our military donations and civilian infrastructure repair, and especially post war reconstruction. Russia and Putins odious oligarch buddies need to be hit where it hurts- their well lined and deep pockets.
Breaches international law says the NY Times, based on previous precedent. Not that any one cares about the oligarchs but didnt one have to sell a London soccer club – ouch that will teach them
It is football in the United Kingdom, the foundational organiser of this sport Britain’s Football Association. The oligarchs assets have not been seized; they have been frozen. The difference is here we have laws. In Russia you have force.
Thanks for that . Yes that was the term I was looking for , frozen rather than seized
I hope this is the case, and the Ukrainians continue to degrade Russian forces faster than they can be replaced
However we need to temper our optimism for several reasons:
Russia is a large country with a lot industry and resources, they can and will
play the attrittion game.
China, Iran and North Korea are plugging supply gaps and shortages.
Their fixed wing Airforce and their Navy are mostly unscathed from the war.
Ukraine has a real population now of 35 millions, Russia has 145 millions and Russia Will have problems to recruit soldiers ? , so Ukraine has unlimited human ressources, isn,t ? Jesús with British intelligence.
All very well stripping your country of able bodied men but exactly who is left behind in the factories,farms etc? Frosts mum probably is one them if indeed she is in that picture🙄
No. Those left behind are migrants from the Stans. Not loyal to Putin or Russia. They just want the money to send home.
Something like 2 mill of those ‘migrants from the stans’, were Ukrainians gone to Russia for better jobs and pay, heaps of others left for the neighbouring countries such as Poland , Romania, Bulgaria for work when those countries hollowed out when joined the EU and could work freely in EU – inc Britain for some years
Ukraine had more in common with Afghanistan than you think, and like them kept going by Nato resources and US and EU money
Look at the demographic trends though. High premature death rates, low life expectancy net migration out of Russia and those 145 million people might not be such a human resource to call upon. Russia is dependent upon cheap labour from the Stans to run most of its industry. Educated Russians got out either before the war or immediately after it began.
Micki wrote:
Whilst you are correct in pointing out the huge disparity in population sizes, you failed to take into account the level of training , leadership skills and the will to fight, which as we have seen this past year are military traits that Moscow is very weak in.
It is without a doubt that Moscow has lost the cream of its military personnel , yes it has press ganged (and press gang is the correct term here) hundreds of thousands , but as we have seen and are seeing , the quality of those troops is very poor, add the lack of leadership in the middle and senior ranks, which results in troops sitting around twiddling their thumbs until hours later somebody with officer rank tells them what to do, doesn’t bode well for troops reacting on the ground as soon as something happens which leads onto distrust with the leadership, resulting in poor moral and for the Russians a much higher casualty rate.
In contrast, the Ukrainians have fielded better trained troops (just watch the many videos of their infantry tactics, where there is a clear NCO led chain of command who deploy their troops in a clear and concise manner, who know what they are doing and who are fighting for a just cause.
Yes the Russians has depth of field, long ranged weaponry and larger numbers of troops, but for all that, it is they who are on the back foot.
The thing is life in the miltary isn’t to be found in a vacuum. Duty rumour, social media and of course the ubiquitous mobile phone ensures that people back home know within hours what is happening at the front. They know about the causalities, about the lack of equipment, the failure to pay and they know about the mistreatment and abuse at the hands of their own this is why so many have done a runner, its why Putin has increased the conscription age from 27 to 30 in which to try and fill those quotas, but the thing is, as I mentioned at the top of this post, Moscow has lost the cream of its troops, you know those troops who have a few years under their belt and so poorly trained troops are sent to the front line and hey presto we find ourselves at the back at the level of training , leadership skills and the will to fight.
It kind of explains why people are attacking and torching army recruiting offices in broad daylight
I love posts like this…
Not just about numbers, Ukraine is defending its territory, Russia is invading others lands, therefore you will get a higher proportion of Ukrainians wanting to join as opposed to Russians and having to join. Big difference and will have a big impact on the battlefield, simple really.
The facts can be easily separated from the fictions and fantasy. Russia is stuck. Manpower is not going to decide this conflict. The impact of this defeat on Russia – incredibly embracing other failed African states internal problems as I type – will be long term and deadly for the average Russian. Putin, who believes he is Russia, has inflicted decades of problems on his country by any objective measure that will outlive him.
Ahh the geo-strategic expert. To me it just sounds like the standard reports from the Daily telegraph, but its almost certain to be wrong
How so?
Everybody has been since the start of this war. DT has a particular approach but having a look just now seems not as bad as I thought
Thank you. I never read the Daily Telegraph. However, as George Orwell once wrote ‘If the Daily Telegraph says eating babies is wrong, then the Daily Telegraph is right’.