According to British intelligence officials on Tuesday, Vladimir Putin has issued directives for Russian military forces to push forward in a majority of the sectors within Ukraine.
However, these efforts have yet to result in a definitive advance.
The officials report that the Wagner Group, Putin’s purported “private army,” has achieved limited progress in the vicinity of Bakhmut, a town located in the eastern Donbas region where some of the most intense hostilities are presently underway.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 14 February 2023
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/twjoin3xm1
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/RgIBKAGUOO
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) February 14, 2023
“In the last three days, Wagner Group forces have almost certainly made further small gains around the northern outskirts of the contested Donbas town of Bakhmut, including into the village of Krasna Hora. However, organised Ukrainian defence continues in the area. The tactical Russian advance to the south of the town has likely made little progress.
In the north, in Kremina-Svatove sector of Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are making continuous offensive efforts, though each local attack remains on too small a scale to achieve a significant breakthrough. Russia likely aims to reverse some of the gains Ukrainian forces made over September-November 2022: there is a realistic possibility that their immediate goal is to advance west to the Zherberets River.
Overall, the current operational picture suggests that Russian forces are being given orders to advance in most sectors, but that they have not massed sufficient offensive combat power on any one axis to achieve a decisive effect.”
Cue johninmk to tell us he was right all along and this past year was a faint for the real attack now.
The Russian army is still a large force albeit taking massive casualties. How long it can sustain that or the people of Russia will sit back and not complain, I don’t know. There are Russians that are not happy with putin or the war but speaking out and taking action is difficult.
Ukraine still has a difficult fight ahead.
Why would I want to do that? My main argument from the start was that, given the relative size of the resources of the two countries, it was and is still pretty much inevitable that Russia will prevail. What caught pretty much every commentator off guard was the way they are now going about it i.e slowly, which many interpreted as weakness but which has turned out to be them prioritising destroying the Ukrainian military over taking and keeping territory.
They did this by unexpectedly turning it into an artillery fest with a likely 6+:1 advantage. Leading to this comment this week ““The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions, and depleting allied stockpiles,” Stoltenberg told reporters ahead of a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production, and this puts our defense industries under strain,” he added.
The real killer in this war is said artillery, it doesn’t matter whether you are in the best tank or the finest special forces unit, if there is a 152mm or rocket salvo heading your way you have a problem and, as I said, the Russians are outshelling the Ukrainians by a large margin hence logically a big casualty disparity.
The massive Russian casualties you quote seem to be a figment of someone’s imagination. As you say, if they were occurring there would be serious civil unrest. The really bad casualties are on the Ukrainian side and the videos of the operations of press gangs and 16 year old boys now being conscripted to make up the numbers don’t make comfortable watching.
As to unhappy Russians! If NATO had intended to bring the Russian peoples together they certainly pulled the rabbit out of the hat when it was agreed that German panzers would roll eastwards again, reopening the old memories that virtually every Russian has of family members dying in WW2. Random businesses are even now offering prizes to the first troops who destroy, or for more money capture, a Leopard.
We will agree to disagree on some points.
With an artillery war what is Russia hoping to achieve. Rubble and hatred is all that is left at the end.
A lot of Russians seem to live in some 1950’s scenario unable to tell truth from nonsense. The west moved on, but somehow it’s the west’s fault that there system and way of living is more appealing to most of the world so that’s who countries want to do trade with, be close to etc.
A lot of Russians still thinking they are the victim and at risk of being invaded.
The whole situation is tragic and a massive waste of Russians and Ukrainians.
The world would actually respect Russia if it moved out of Ukraine and offered anyone wanting to live under the Russian way of life resettlement to the motherland. The west would probably pay the resettlement costs.
But no putin has a point to prove and it doesn’t matter who gets killed in the process.
More propagandist fiction from John in Moscow 🤦🏻♂️
Let me correct one of your early statements…
“What caught pretty much every commentator off guard was”… just his f@cking inept, incompetent, and imbecilic the entire Russia military has turned out to be!!
To think in the 70’s and 80’s we feared the mighty USSR, hah!! 😂
Everyone feared the USSR in the 30’s then the Fins sent them packing. They are deluded third world nation that seem’s to think they are good at fighting yet they get slaughtered by any western military they have ever fought.
It’s western propagandists and media that constantly blow smoke up their arse making then think they are good.
They are doing the exact same thing now talking about Russians new army 500,000 strong. It is all BS.
😂👍 He isn’t allowed to stop posting his script, he is terrified of joining the low level tank turret display team! I find him so amusing, he’s like the Lib Dems, come out with a statement, and when wrong come out with the opposite swearing blind that’s what he always says while completely ignoring original chuff!
‘… he is terrified of joining the low level tank turret display team!‘
Another gem.
Team ‘JohninMagnitogorsk’ have an answer to everything. Failure is a Baldrick ‘clever plan’; losing 200,000 plus rapists and 1,500 plus tanks and APC’s is also a sign of ‘winning’. The Rapists have clung on using trench warfare but a return to manoeuvre war fighting will expose them to another thrashing.
The Rapists only ‘plan’ is to flatten what’s left of Ukraine using drones and long range artillery. That policy is supported by Johno of course.
So the ‘special operation’ designed to frighten the life out of us and prepare the former Soviet Empire for the Rule of Vlad the Great and stop them joining N.A.T.O., a policy so successful Sweden, Finland and now – wait for it – Switzerland! are all clamouring to join, Poland is re-arming impressively and Germany is pulling its socks up. Result Vlad!
Boom best 20 second assessment I’ve heard 😂👍
Last time the Russians went on an “offensive” they through men and materials that they did not have then the Ukrainians just went around them and retook two major cities. What do you think has changed in 4 months?
Russia is not the Soviet Union they don’t have the manpower or industrial base to overwhelm anyone and their military has always been of a much lower caliber than almost any other European country, much like their industry and science. They made up for that in the past by throwing men at the problem and hoping the western Allie’s would come to the UK and it’s western Allie’s would come to their aid or their conquers would run out of logistics chasing them in to Siberia.
Non of those things stand anymore. The Russians had no chance with their “professional” forces and ten years of equipment build up. Throwing 500,000 barley trained press ganged victims with no logistics and limited equipment is just a really good way to kill off the few healthy men of breading age Russia has left.
Hopefully once Russia looses this war it will come to terms with just how shit it is and join the international order properly like everyone else and stop thinking it’s special.
Rich Russians no this better than anyone else that’s why they stash their kids, wives, mistresses and money outside of Russia.
I goes to show how much Moscow rule was loved in the USSR that the strongest support against Russia comes from countries that had to live in that system.
Correct in whole and detail. I wish the wearing down of Vlad didn’t involve the destruction of Ukraine and its culture but what other way is there but to fight this to a finish? Get the civilians to the west and give the Ukrainians serious weapons in greater quantity and quicker. This a case that Putin must not just lose he must be seen to lose.
Watched the Kursk movie again last night. A litany of clapped out, poorly/unmaintained, useless equipment, provided by clapped out, useless Admirals in big hats. Who immediately blamed the West for the loss of one of their ‘best’ submarines.
From WiKi… A four-page summary of a 133-volume, top-secret investigation revealed “stunning breaches of discipline, shoddy, obsolete and poorly maintained equipment”, and “negligence, incompetence, and mismanagement”.
A brilliant and very real summary of all that is wrong with the Russian Army and nation.
The disparity in population and resources does not in any way make a Russian victory inevitable. Think about the USA vs Vietnam or Russia vs Finland in WW2 as just two examples.
PS and no disrespect to our American cousins with Vietnam remark. Think of King Georges Regulars vs the Continental part-timers! There are many factors other than just size disparities
Don’t forget though that Vietnam was a strange conflict in that the US limited what they would do. i.e. no bombing up north for most of war. Vietnam in many ways was a sandpit for the US & USSR to play with their toys at huge cost the Vietnamese people. Had the US gone all in, total bombing campaign, mass coastal invasions etc then that war might have been quite different.
The US bombing effort was enormous – they dropped far more bombs than in WW2, by far.
Yep, but apart from a few short spells in ’72, the north was out of bounds.
Exactly. As I said-many factors other than just size
Oh dear how much chuff do you come out with! You change your tune more than most people change their pants! But we are all impressed by your military knowledge in regard to the use of OS, when you acknowledge you have zero military experience. But, you do seem pleased that the Nazis are on the move again. And as you reply to me can you now confirm that you acknowledge this war is an illegal invasion by Putin and Russia should pull back in immediately to ensure a round of peace talks to ensue. Also, to show your not the troll you claim to be, type “Putin is a bell-end and a Nazi”…….nope thought not as your not able to troll bot!
And I see Nigel and Farouk have clocked you yet again on your Russian Nazi fan boy site dishing out your propaganda in that echo chamber! Oh dear, oh dear and oh dear!
😆🤣😆🤣😆👍 thanks Johnski. I enjoyed that. You’ve really made my day.
The new Russian offensive is not going to plan it seems John.
11,536 in total and with the latest equipment from the west pouring in across the borders. I’m sure they’re grateful for Russian donations too!
Russia burning bodies in Crimea ‘around the clock’ to hide losses
“Dead Russian soldiers are being cremated “around the clock” in the annexed territory of Crimea, according to Ukraine’s military.
A local crematorium in the village of Krazna Zorka is being used, with a “constant line of military vehicles” of up to 10 trucks outside carrying dead soldiers and mercenaries, the General Staff said.
It said Russia is aiming to “hide the number of dead”.
Over the weekend, the UK Ministry of Defence said Russia had likely suffered its highest rate of casualties over the past two weeks since the first week of the invasion.
“The mean average for the last seven days was 824 casualties per day, over four times the rate reported over June-July 2022,” the MoD said.
The fiercest battles are currently around the towns of Bakhmut and Vuhledar in the east of Ukraine.”
“German panzers would roll eastwards again”, is a really dumb statement a pathetic attempt by the Kremlin at propaganda.
“Ukrainian-owned tanks will be rolling eastward to reclaim Ukrainian sovereign territory” There, I fixed it for you.
Actually the requirement of an offensive army to even hold part of another nation that is willing to fight let alone advance is very significant. Russia does not have the armed forces to take and hold a nation of almost 50million. Putin made the mistake in thinking he could undertake a decapitation and then Ukraine would accept Russian rule. He was wrong and now Russia is in a no win situation, even if Russia manages to grind Ukraine down ( which is unlikely with continued support from the west) he will be left occupying a shell of a nation that will require massive levels of funding and resources to both hold a nation of almost 50 million( with a population that now generally hates russia) as well as rebuild that nation’s infrastructure……he did this to grab new industries and population…what he has is a war that will destroy russia in the end one way or another.
Exactly and succinctly so. What are Putin’s stated war aims worth now when even Switzerland is lending a hand? Putin has galvanised the west and N.A.T.O. like no one else since that latter organisation began.
Blimey. Not sure what to make of your comment. It’s so deluded it’s either terrifying or comical. Probably a bit of both.
I’m making 80 US dollars for every hr. to finish some internet providers from home. I absolutely never thought it would try and be reachable anyway. My comrade mate got $13k just in about a month effectively doing this best task and furthermore she persuaded me to profit. Look at additional subtleties going to
this article.. https://Americanliberty7.blogspot.com
im Afraid John boy that your quote
“The massive Russian casualties you quote seem to be a figment of someone’s imagination”‘ 🙈
it certainly is anything but a figment of anyones imagination it is reality here’s what Gen Mark Milley chair JCS who knows more than any of the armchair fantasy war enthusiasts in here had to say late last year
You’re looking at well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded,” Milley said in remarks at the Economic Club of New York. “Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side.”
Nobody denies these figure by that I mean the EU , US, HM gov the only folk that do are the cheerleaders and likes of yourself.
however that said even The General is believed to be way way short of the mark Israeli intel sources estimate the actual number to be far greater. I believe this to be the case also .
There is currently a petition that’s been signed by Ukrainian wives and mothers ( you won’t hear about this in the Lame stream media) asking for the status of 320,000 plus Ukrainian servicemen asking why aren’t they writing /phoning home ? Sad to say it’s not difficult to come to a conclusion on that
As I’ve stated many times before 2 rotten corrupt regimes neither of which care one jot about how many casualties they suffer.
Its about time we started getting the Truth and effort be directed to end this awful war as much as that would upset the folks 😉
I look forward to a rebuttal 😆 so come on mr moderator don’t wait 3 weeks for my tuppence ………….
🇬🇧🏴
Hello, can you please e-mail me privately at [email protected] with any issues you have?
Thanks
I’m making $80 for every hr. to finish some internet providers from home. I absolutely never thought it would try and be reachable anyway. My comrade mate got $13k just in about a month effectively doing this best task and furthermore she persuaded me to profit. Look at additional subtleties going to
this article.. https://Americanliberty7.blogspot.com
George
I notice you have a degree in cyber security. Why are these scam posts still on your website? Not a good look.
Do I detect a slight change in direction regarding the supply of aircraft to Ukraine?
Allies will give Ukraine ‘as much ammunition as quickly as possible
‘US defence secretary Lloyd Austin is now asked about his stance on fighter jets – as we’d anticipated.
In response, the retired four-star general says with respect to any kind of aircraft being provided by Poland, the US “never stopped Poland from providing anything“.
He says: “A decision to provide something is made by the leadership of that country.
“In terms of whether or not we’re going to provide F-16s, I don’t have any announcements to make. I don’t have anything to add to what our president said earlier. I’ll just leave it at that.”
He also says Ukraine’s allies will give Ukraine “as much ammunition as quickly as possible”.
Asked about the ongoing Russian offensive, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Mark Milley, says the “frontline is relatively stable”.
“Most of the dynamic movement is generally in the vicinity of Bakhmut. The Ukrainians are holding. They’re fighting the defence,” he says.
He adds there are “very high casualties, especially on the Russian side”.
Courtesy of Sky News.
I’m not sure that some fighter jets will make a big difference but I’m more than happy to be proved wrong.
Really depends how good the ecm is at fooling the SAMs.
They may help with shooting down incoming cruise missiles. I don’t know if they could being used over the front and strikes into Russian held land without losses.
Except in the case of the southern flank where they could mallet the Russian surface fleet, like ducks in a pond.
That then, would leave the sub force to fire off their missiles but leaving them vulnerable when being replenned. It would grant some reprieve to Ukrainian rcz infrastructure at least.
A friend of a friend you mean with the same agenda.
Jeremy Corbyn has urged western countries to stop arming Ukraine,
Posted on Russia Defence Forum
16 Jan 2023 — person JohninMK. Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:55 pm. by JohninMK. Soviet carton 1958, on the money. Russian special military operation in Ukraine #36 …
Oh I can beat that, here is what he has to say on the Armata thread where replies to the loss of Russian tanks.
[Official] Armata Discussion thread #6
JohninMK Today at 3:24 pm
“At the time of writing, at least 1,594 tanks have been lost including 448 T-72B3-series tanks, and 37 T-90-series tanks that remain rare in Ukraine.”
it appears that JIMK subscribes to the view that the figures promulgated about Russian tank losses is fabricated , hinting that Oryx whom everybody cites for their work in counting vehicle losses is funded by Kyiv. Which is strange as I have been following Oryx for over 8 years and I started doing so after they started counting the huge ammunition hauls ISIS was making across Syria . (well worth reading)
Where they reported on the weapons used and the in-house weaponary designed by ISIS (Such as they armoured vehicles)
when the bunfight erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan, They started counting losses , the format of which they used for the conflict inside the Ukraine.
but according to JIMK, the work that Oryx have carried out is misinformation paid for by Kyiv. If that is so, can he please explain who paid Oryx to do all their work from 2014 to Dec 2021.
PS:
Oryx is based in Turkey and the main love of their work is North Korea. Which explains the Books they have knocked out in the country. If yiu are going to talk PISH, expect others to expose the misinformation you try to peddle.
Ring any bells!
Another deluded twat. Does Corbyn really think he’s that great!?
Sadly, yes he does.
I’m trying to work out whether he’s just another deluded peacenik pacifist, or if he actually supports Russia.
I think he’s just deluded to be honest.
I think you’re right.
Corbyn’s view of global politics and conflict is basically that of a six-year old, asking why can’t everyone just be nice.
“The wolf shall live with the lamb, the leopard shall lie down with the kid, the calf and the lion and the fatling together, and a little child shall lead them.” I think he really believes that if we the west just put aside our armed forces the rest of the world would follow. Unfortunately in every case the lion always eats the lamb.
Shame we can’t put polonium in his tea.
OTH, was he so wrong about the Gulf Wars? Good intentions but well off the rails now.
Corbyn is a life long pacifist but against whom?
Yes. The semi-educated are the worst.
Are you implying Corbyn can actually think?
Good. I prefer it when people, particularly politicians, are truthful. Corbyn has always supported totalitarians. He has never met a terrorist he did not like.
JohninMagnitogorsk however has taken nearly a year to concede where his (their?) allegiance resides.
840 fatalities a day on average since February begun + a verified 1000 wounded is going to weigh on the Russian people. Putin can’t hide those deaths from the soldier’s families.
If the Ukraine collapses, what will NATO do? Are we close to a major war in Europe?
I don’t think Russia can take over all of Ukraine and hold it. The majority of Ukrainians don’t want to be under Russian rule so Russia would require massive forces to maintain its gains.
At the current rate of progress over the last year versus losses Russia can’t achieve taking all of Ukraine. Even with a full mobilisation we would be looking at a minimum of a few million dead and many more injured.
The longer Russian supply lines get becomes its own issue.
Will nato or some nato members consider going into ukraine at some point in the next few of years? Maybe Poland and some supporters when they get more kit delivered.
The mission would just be to create a safe area in the west of Ukraine. It perhaps should of been done at the start. Call it peacekeeping mission.
Really it’s total guess work now. Russia could stop offensive actions at any time.
The same could’ve been said of the Uighurs before the CCP decided to forcably encarcerate, brainwash or just eliminate them & replace them with Han Chinese. Maybe that’s Putins strategy, had his quick invasion succeeded. He already, at the start of last years invasion, explicitly dismissed Ukraine as a nation or people. The atrocities against Ukranian civilians are testament to Putin’s Russian regard to them.
Putin has assisted Assad in Syria to anhialate the rebel opposition.
From following various accounts on Twitter, the Russian advance has got off to a bad start. An entire Marine brigade seems to have been pulverised outside Vulhedar, with the loss of more than 50% of the infantry and over 130 armoured vehicles, mainly to mines and artillery. It’s not even clear if they advanced far enough to engage Ukrainian troops.
The Ukrainians are slowly giving ground in some areas, but at huge cost to the Russians (around 850-900 men per day KIA, with twice that number wounded).
It also appears that the Ukrainians are preparing for a counter-offensive, but are allowing the Russians to deplete their ammunition stockpiles before attacking.
Couldn’t remember the name of the brigade when I wrote the comment, but it was the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet that was almost completely destroyed
Looking at tactical maps today Ukraine has pushed Russia back a bit near the south of bakmut. Whether it continues we will see.
It’d be good if they can then reclaim Mariupol and the surrounds and more access to the Asov sea. Hold a buffer area to the east and slowly shove them out of the south west and Crimea. Strength to Ukraine 🇺🇦 and its people and President!
Just like the last two “offensive’s”. Maybe they thought third times the charm 😀
NATO will wring its hands in faux angst
Cry ‘It did all it possibly could’ .
I doubt it will hang it’s head in real shame.
and admit its not done what it should.
(that started out as a simple reply and evolved …so I went with it..but you get the sentiment…I’ll get me coat 😂)
NATO is trying avoid an all out war with a nuclear armed state. While it may appear NATO will defend Europe to the last Ukrainian, nuclear war means no one wins. This is not a game. Ukraine has barely reached Hiroshima & Nagasaki numbers & that’s taking both sides into account. I know I often appear as a killjoy, but I have had, like many, relatives in both WW1 & 2 & since that I personally got to know (all gone now). I repeat, this is not a game.
If Ukraine collapses it’ll only because Russia has persuaded China and North Korea to contribute forces to fight there. In which case NATO does have a major problem.
But Russia on its own? Nah 😆
I have not heard any reports that China and North Korea have forces in the Ukraine fighting with the Russians, but I would not be surprised to learn that China and North Korea have observers in the Ukraine taking notes
They haven’t, which is why Ukraine won’t collapse.
I like your confidence that Ukraine won’t collapse, but much of its infrastructure has. We should not be too complacent. Putin won’t give up – it is said that 97% of the Russian Army is committed to this terrible war. Western nations must accelerate their material and financial support.
It’s infrastructure has taken a battering, but it’s still functioning – heck the rail system has better punctuality than ours! The power to the Kyiv tram system was knocked out the other, it was fully functioning again less than 2 days later.
Not sure what “committed” means, they certainly don’t have 97% of the army in theatre. They still have large parts of their forces deployed around Russia, including the Far East and Kaliningrad.
(They originally deployed a laughably small force against Ukraine, obviously thinking it would be a rerun of the Crimea take-over.)
Yes they’re going to keep ramping up numbers of conscripts to throw into Ukraine. But the U.K., USA and Canada have been training the Ukrainian military since 2014 and that programme has dramatically increased over the past year.
My only doubt over Ukraine’s eventual victory is if the USA elects a president in 2024 that stops military aid to Ukraine, as I doubt the rest of NATO could contribute sufficient to compensate.
Ben Wallace said that 97% figure some 4 days ago to a BBC reporter but it does seem unlikely to me:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-64634760
I agree about the US point. Also many Republicans in Congress now opposes military aid at the current levels.
Not sure the invasion force at 190,000 plus several hundred Wagner Group was laughably small – we invaded Iraq with fewer – 175,000. https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-army-size-compared-russia-uk-us-nato-3581362
Actually the Republicans in Congress aren’t too bad, there’s a few extremist wacko’s – Ron Paul springs to mind – but the bulk still support Ukraine. It’s a bit different with some of their natural voters – the QAnon/ anti-vax/ conspiracy theory brigade who watch Tucker Carlson are anti-aid if not openly pro-Putin.
The Russian invasion forces for Ukraine were laughably small, to subdue and occupy a country that size. They assumed it’d be another walkover like Crimea.
The coalition forces that invaded Iraq were laughably small to, but were sufficiently professional and well-equipped to quickly take the capital and overthrow Saddam’s government.
However after the war, when it came to the occupation and nation building, the forces deployed were too small.
Isn’t there some story out there that North Korea is supplying Russia with artillery shells and probably other things too? And there’s Iran supplying drones. If they’re all already under sanctions there’s nothing stop them still doing business between themselves.
Yes, I have heard the reports that North Korea is supplying Russia with artillery shells and Iran is supplying drones.
Yes North Korea supposedly supplying artillery shells, but proving to be of highly variable quality/reliability.
China aren’t providing Russia with so much as prawn crackers, let alone any military support!
They are too busy flying weather balloons
It is one of the issues if NATO starts throwing around it’s real weight it could suck China in to atleast supplying Russia with arms which would be a big problem.
However with NATO providing “defensive” arms only is seems to have kept China on the sidelines.
China is trying to push “non interference” as its world order narrative amongst the non aligned countries.
I’m guessing the Chinese are also greedily eyeing all those new republics that will be forming in Siberia. They already stripped Central Asia off the Russians now it’s time for the North.
“Non-interference”… Lol… what hypocrisy… always been done by whatever means available.
Depends what China’s short to medium term plans are, do they need to retain a capability to take Taiwan if they wanted and if so I doubt they will start selling arms to Russia. They could make a case for any old crap laid about, shells, mortars, bullets etc sat in old stock piles but no chance start supplying advanced munitions.
If China was proven to be supplying then it will most likely face sanctions and can it afford a trade war with the West with all the cracks appearing in its economy, probably not.
North Korea is no doubt selling arms to Russia, would it commit men probably unlikely, the west cant really threaten it with sanctions but its ridiculously paranoid about the South and wont weaken its forces, plus whoever left and survived would never return!
Like they non-interfered in the SCS by gazzumping everybody else’s far more reasonable claims, destroying coral reefs to create artificial reefs, or stopping resupply to Phillipine garrisons there? Or non-interfering in Tibet by invading & annexing it? Or non-interfereing in Korea by invading to support the North Koreans?
Or trashing the Hong-Kong agreement as soon as it suited them?
The only thing the PRC want is for nobody to interfere with their colonial ambitions.
Poking the Bear is one thing, poking the dragon…
You have to wonder how the PLA would really fare when they have had no combat experience in over 70 years; like their balloons, I wonder if they’re full of hot air.
If the Russians set foot over a NATO boarder they would die very quickly. Clearly s400 is over hyped if it can’t even stop Ukraine flying mig 29’s with no ECM.
Fighting NATO forces with F35’s and F22 conducting SEAD mission and making way for fourth Gen aircraft would see the Russian’s slaughtered. Imagine what a flight of typhoons loaded up with brimstone would do to a Russian battalion tactical group.
Then engaging NATO ground forces would be an embarrassment. It would make GW1 look difficult.
A grim thought, but if Ukraine collapses the last thing that NATO would do is rush in and attack the Russian occupying forces with the aim of evicting them.
NATO would increase its eFP forces, and work to admit Finland and Sweden asap (except Erdogan is stalling on Sweden). NATO might ‘exercise with’ the Moldovan forces in-country to prevent that country from being next on Putin’s list.
Not sure NATO could or would do much more.
Sir, politely, I disagree. The Poles would go in hard, and ex-paratrooper General, now President of yhe Czech Republic would likely enable that effort, with the Slovaks strongly pro-Ukraine.
Interesting thought. No matter what NATO’s view, that Poland would take on Russia single handed if Ukraine collapsed? Followed by the Czech Republic and Slovakia?
Is it?
Finland has stated publicly, she’ll wade in with any Russian aggression on Estonia and Poland has a deep rooted hatred of Russia and would not countenance having them on her border.
If Russia attacks Estonia then Article 5 is called and all of NATO stand up.
Surely Poland is used to having Russians on their border by now?
We’ve had this convo. AN article 5 being called does NOT mean that all NATO stand up automatically; please stop repeating this wishful mantra.
And Graham, Poland has no Russians on her border with the exception of the Kaliningrad enclave.
The Polish DO have memories of the Katyn massacre, the murder of their officers and the way the Red Army asked for Polish Resistance to rise up and then stood back and let the NAZIs kill them all; coincidentally, they did the same to the Slovaks, stating that with 100,00 paratroopers and air superiority, they were in no position to leapfrog the Dukla Pass and liberate the Slovaks – have a guess at what happened to the Slovak fighters while the Soviets sat it out?
Russia is an ocean of beauty, intelligence, culture, poetry, dance, opera, ballet and writings.
Russians are the scum that inhabit the surface of those great depths.
David, Great reply – thanks.
Perhaps I should have explained my term ‘stand up’. I did not mean that every NATO member immediately fully mobilises, gets the tanks on the ferries or HETs and rocks up in the Combat Zone ready to do battle.
I mean that all member nations quickly take such action as they deem necessary, including the use of armed force. Some wimpish nations will deem it necessary to send a strong note of protest to the aggressor, some will want to table an emergency meeting and secure a Resolution at the UN, some will send a token force and others will send all they have got. Coordination being done by the North Atlantic Council.
Article 5 wording:
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”
Senior moment on the border point – of course you are right. I had the 1939 map in my head, clearly.
No worries Sir.
We just have to move away from the narrative that NATO will rise to meet Russian aggression.
It’s important because some MS will veer to business, others MAY veer to giving the Russians a thoroughly deserved malleting – which the Russians deserve.
If Ukraine collapses, God forbid, then we will be close to a major war. I think standing off too long just sending equipment, placing sanctions, leaders grandstanding sends the signal to the PRC that we’re too weak to stop aggression. I’d rather have us intervene directly before now to throw Russia right out of Ukraine rather than leaving Ukraine to suffer. Show Putin we’re not going to allow him to invade a European nation & get away with it. It would make dictators around the world think twice about any plans to invade others.
Vlad plays his nuke card ferociously(& far too much), but we have exactly the same capabilty, so either he’s bluffing & bullying, or he wants to see Russia totally destroyed along with the rest of the world.
Vlad is a bully. You give ground, he will take ground. He has, unfortunately a fair bit behind him. However, he is not stupid. He is not Hitler or Stalin (or Comrade Kim). In Ukraine, he miscalculated. He knows this. His problem now is how to end this while not appearing to lose, while staying in power. To complicate things, there are two boundaries, pre & post 2014. Post 2014 may be doable. Pre 2014 is a whole different story.
I consider Putin stupid to have invaded Ukraine. Did he do a cost-benefits analysis first? Take soundings from the Generals. Wargame his ‘Special Operation’?
For the time being old, would the Ukrainians be better slowly conceding territory in an organised fashion? This:
1) Continues to attrit Russian forces
2) Lengthens Russian logistics chains from their railheads
3) Gives the Ukranians more time to train troops in maneuvere warfare through the extensive overseas training which is underway
4) Lengthens the line Russia needs to defend when a Ukranian counter attack comes
5) Allows the Ukrainians to pick the ground favourable to them to fight on
6) Gives the Ukrainians time to receive and integrate new Western weapons in preparation for a counterattack.
I think this has mostly been the strategy. Ukraine hasn’t done any big movements for a while. There have been a few pushes here and there but nothing substantial.
Ukraine needs to get troops trained. It’s a hard job to get that many able to fight properly.
Ukraine will not take the losses Russia is taking for little gains.
Why bother when they can sit inflict loads more casualties, destroy equipment and generally wear Russia down. Then when needed they get troops out of the area to fight another day.
Russia can’t replace all the lost equipment and experience fast enough. Ukraine should get stronger with time, training, better equipment etc.
Ukraine is fighting for its survival. It only gets one try to get it right.
Hopefully
I notice a pattern developing from last year.
Last summer, Russia inched forward in a slow, attritional grind, losing masses of men for advances in mere metres. Slowly, but surely, they advance, though, taking towns here and there – mostly after blasting them to rubble.
Then at the end of summer Ukraine launched its blistering counteroffensive, retaking thousands of square miles of terrirory, especially in the north, beginning with Kharkiv and ending with Kherson.
Might the same thing be happening again? Are Ukraine allowing Russia to expend themselves in these fruitless, grinding offensives, let them burn themselves out, before striking elsewhere and making more gains?
My advice/prediction would be to go north from Kherson, cross the Dnieper, then push into Zaphorizia to cut off the land-bridge to Crimea, then destroy the Kerch Bridge and prepare to take Crimea.
If Ukraine can manage to take Crimea, it’s all over. I can’t see Putin surviving that – either politically or just in general.
That would have been an excellent strategy, one that was apparently recommended by NATO advisors but which fell on political deaf ears in Kiev due to the fear that being seen to be ‘defeated’ (in much the same way as Russian tactical withdrawls have been described) would put at risk the avalanche of money, equipment etc that was pouring in from NATO/US/EU. As a result the UA have poured scarce reserves into plugging holes in the front in one of the best emulations of Canute for a while.
More delusional lies from the propagandist.
So far you entire war has been one long tactical withdrawal. It’s a strange way to conduct and offensive but then retreat is the first instinct of the Russian army so perhaps we don’t understand the “strategy”.
Yaaaaaaawn more guff from Nazi fan boy!
‘Avalanche’ of money and equipment, lol.
Careful, your trolling is looking pretty poor. I think it might be the front lines for you John.
‘Here is your tank. Yes it has a hole in it. That helps you find the enemy. That leg? It is meant to be there. Now. Drive over that way and see what happens, I mean, if its safe …‘
Losing over 1500 tanks and A.P.C.’s and an estimated 200.000 (and counting) ‘soldiers’ to fool the Ukrainians into believing they can hold on. Brilliant tactics.
Fighting war to prevent N.A.T.O. expansion that has resulted in N.A.T.O. expanding and even has Switzerland getting off its historical fence. What genius!
This has been one of your least thought out posts. Canute knew what he was doing. It was to show up the ‘yes’ men. If only Vlad had shown such wisdom.
Ukraine has to be mindful of giving up too much ground and thus the international perception that it could be losing. Such a perspective might in some cases cause some countries to ease weapon supply on the basis that Russia is achieving its objective. I feel sure some countries in Europe would have preferred a clean sweep of Russian forces and the complete takeover of Ukraine for solely economic reasons. The financial damage across the globe has not been insubstantial and the ramifications will live on for years. One thing I fear is that the anti-Russian alliance is not as unified as it appears. If such a situation manifests itself I’m sure the US will boost even more of its military aid.
Allow the enemy to come out of the woodwork so you can see what you need to deal with…then squash! Well, that’s how I deal with cockroaches…
Well we all knew this was on the cards simply as Hard man Putin couldn’t accept the fact that he had been humiliated by the Ukrainians who were (and still are) Outnumbered, Out funded, and out gunned and now he simply relying on the metric of “Never mind the quality, just feel the width” in which to achieve his aim
However we shouldn’t forget that Putin is fighting this war on numerous fronts and one of them is in the West where rising fuel and food costs have resulted in public dissent , no doubt with the aim that it will bring down the government to be replaced with one more friendly to Moscow. Naturally he has seeded social media with his little helpers who parrot the line that this is a war against the Nazis, that it is to prevent a genocide (oh the irony) , to prevent Biolabs been used against Russians, to prevent Nuclear missiles been based next door to Russia (which kind of ignores the fact that Sub launched Ballistic missiles have a range of around 8000 Miles , allowing the Allies if they wanted to sit off Brazil and still hit Moscow) and that NATO and not Moscow is the real villain. Of course all of the above have found a rich fertile home in the Petrie dish of the tin hat brigade.
Anyway I feel that Putin is going to say Bugger the cost just get the job done, which may explain the rash of Russian casualties on mass this past week, where Russian troops have advanced into Ukrainian kill zones and continued to advance despite taking horrendous casualties and he knows the clock is running as the supply of Western armour will make a huge difference
A lot of the tin hat brigade love to peddle the line that the Ukraine should surrender simply due to the thousands who have been killed and settle for peace, but they won’t as Zelensky is blood thirsty. But when looked at I feel the entire game plan of the Ukraine (who know they can’t win in a straight bun fight) is to make the Russians die a death of a thousand cuts and see Putin removed by the Mob I read the other day that Moscow has suffered around 200K casualties (that’s casualties (which includes death) and not just deaths. Which simply shows that Putin doesn’t give a toss. On that note, I read a couple news article last night which stipulated that Putin has sacked Wagner and replaced them with Russian troops, (Also read that Russian prisoners are now refusing to sign up. (I suppose watching former prisoners who joined Wagner getting murdered with a sledge hammer would have that effect) as Wagner was becoming too powerful. Whilst that may be true, it does reek of acute paranoia.
Anyway, the troops Moscow is currently fielding are mostly green (I do think this lot have received a bit of extra training. that said I’ve seen army cadets who have spent more time in the Naafi) and as I mentioned above, they have a habit of been filmed getting massacred.
There’s a good channel on YouTube 1420 where they go out and ask Russians questions about topics. Some believe all the propaganda, some don’t. It’s a shame part of population believe it and think nato is ready to invade Russia.
The casualties are awful, such a waste for a stupid Willy waving contest.
Europe really need to be suppling Ukraine with all the tools needed to stop Russia. The costs of not doing so will be much higher than making equipment.
12-24 months I don’t want to still be watching this war.
I want to see the russians chewed up and spat out by ukraine, time is coming when we must give ukraine the planes they need ,in all honesty putin forces must be destroyed and putin gone ie bullet in his head ,china’s our enemy in myeyes and they will be next to try their luck so get rid of mr pings puppet as a warning to the chinese communist bastards
China’s current leadership is an issue. Hopefully we see a change in Moscow and Beijing for the better sometime.
We could all get along then.
Very true ,change of leadership is due I know a lot of chinese hierarchy are not happy especially with his warmongering, getting along is the best way ,we all live in peace as one people, the human race
Much the same as the German hierarchy in the 1930’s who constantly threatened to over throw Hitler but never quite got round to it and blamed appeasement for their cowardice. The only way Putin and Xi are going is to die of old age.
I wont be holding my breath – there is – in my opinion- absolutely no chance of that .
Just as I wont be holding my breath that Western Governments take a harder stance against Chinese influence in all our walks of life.
It took war in Ukraine for them to ‘act’ againsty Russian money & influence in our economy.
As Russian energy see Chinese manufacturing.
We continue to allow and even encourage Chinese influence in our stragtegic infrastructure inc. Energy, Water & Education without so much as a whimper- sacrificed on the alter of consumerism.
I suggest people start looking closer to home to negate Chinese influence- but they won’t, as it will be too painful and expensive to extract ourslves from the cheap goods chinese manpower and manufacturing processes enable them to provide.
Added to that we will never truly get along with either Russian or Chinese political ideologies- they are firmly entrenched in opposition to our definiition of democracy for that- accomodate is the best we can hope for.
China’s influence has been severely curtailed in past few years.
Where exactly ?
I know Williamson caused a storm regards Huwai– which ultimately got him the sack – but had the effect of at least an attempt ot curtaining Huwai’s integration into the UK internet network (not sure how successfully or complete that was) .
Apart from that where has their iunfluence been curtailed (severe or otherwise) – not in Power/Water/Infrastructure and certainly not in Universities.
BTW I posted that before this mornings papers – so I won’t include surveilance – although if the cap fits you should wear if (esp. if it hides you face) .
What about their flagrant dsiregard for consulate ‘activities’- did anything come of that Manchester debacle?
We are cowtowing to them in the same way we did to Russian Oil . and its a bloody disgrace.
The backbone telephone network in the UK was already based on Huawai IP technolgy and has been since it was digitised at least a couple of decades back. All firmware in it is tested and approved by a joint Huawai/GCHQ company before it is allowed to be implemented. The row blew up over the extension of that into the then forthcoming 5G network.
There were concerns before – and they are still there now. The levels of integration probably mean to remove them would be a massive & costly undertaking.
Current leadership may be around for decades and their systems are likely to churn out more of the same, neither country could handle even single party democracy and they have now reverted back to absolute monarchy. It might take centuries to reform.
Less of a war monger would be a good starting point.
The world is linked together and any conflict causes issues to the masses.
Only country outside that rule is maybe North Korea and I don’t see anyone voting for that.
Great choice of photo George. Battle of Brovary. Slava Ukraini!
The thing I find scary is that there’s a lot of young Russians who believe the propaganda. The older generations I can understand if they only get there news from russian news stations, news papers ect. However the younger generations have so much more access to other places of information especially if they have a vpn. It’s also normally the younger generations that generally question the government.
It is scary, what you have described is that virtually the whole population is behind their Government.
That’s not what my friend says who very recently, finally managed to get out of Russia. Yes a large part of the Russian population is xenophobic, racist, badly educated, and quite frankly stupid. But a significant portion of the younger educated population see through the lies – it’s not at all difficult over there to set up a VPN to access Western news and social media.
Or John, are you finally going to admit you live in Russia?
👍
Your response is surely aimed at NorthernAlly not me?
Why would I do that when I am happily living in Milton Keynes?
No, it was you who came out with the bonkers comment that “virtually the whole population is behind their government”.
If that statement was true, Putin would allow free media, wouldn’t be jailing or murdering journalists and opposition leaders, and wouldn’t rig the elections. That he has to resort to all this this shows he knows that not the case.
So if you’re living happily in MK – I doubt that, I’ve visited MK, I doubt anyone could be happy there – how do you know what the Russian people actually think? I’m quoting a friend who has been there in Moscow since before the war started and only left a couple of weeks ago.
MK is a brilliant place to live, been here since 1976 and am very pleased I decided to move here.
I thought that I had shut up your stupid accusations when you went quiet after I answered your questions on the Churchill. Had the op now there by they way, a very professional hospital.
God you must have been living in a real dump previously then! 😱
Don’t recall you answering any questions about Churchill, don’t recall asking any to be honest. I’ve a pretty full-on active life and you’re posts aren’t really a priority…
So about these 6,000 Ukrainian children detained in camps in Russian. Presumably this is because Russians are pederasts as well as rapists?
He’s on about the Churchill hospital in Oxford, it was me who gripped him about it! Troll boy can’t even get that right, very much like Russian mission planning!
It’s probably the hallucinogens that he’s on 🤷🏻♂️
Well that’s a bit rich😂you calling out someone for a ‘stupid’ comment! Have the Orcs reached the Polish border yet?
And you only answered Sean’s second part of his post and as usual conveniently ignored the one requiring answers about Russians! Very predictable, very much like a Russian oligarchs suicide plans!
Did you have a look around the hospital and see what part of it your fellow Russians would identify as a legitimate target?
That’s almost too obvious to mention, the part with Nuclear in the title.
Eh ? An x Ray department and the radiologists are targets are they?
You haven’t a clue what you’re talking about.
Not the half a million who escaped over the Border to avoid being conscripted into the Nazi half trained dross rapist squads!
Bit low there, 750,000 at least. But they were all going on a state sponsored holiday or are the new spy recruits spreading Russias love around the world is what we will hear next.
😂👍
Apparently more fled across the border to avoid conscription than actually voluntarily showed up at the enlistment offices 😆
But he won’t like to admit that will he, sorry, I mean he won’t be allowed to acknowledge that fact! Still waiting for him to verify his none troll status by typing “Putin is a bell-end Nazi…..”
With NATO apparently unable to keep up with munition expenditure, based on todays press, and the Americans already highlighting they cannot release longer range weapons without impacting their own capabilities I really hope the West has not squandered the last 10 years.
If the Russians are able to apply a ‘Total War’ doctrine it could get really messy.. If Ukraine does go down, what’s next?
I hope the pledged kit gets there in time.
Its not the last 10 years, its the past 30+ years. During that time US/NATO has been optimised to fight wars in the financial interests of the US. in particular the preservation of the petro dollar. Both Saddam and Gaddafi were, regardless of how they treated their people, acceptable dictators until they effectively signed their death warrants by starting to sell oil for Euros/gold. Then there was Afghanistan.
The result was a UK (among others) military that was completely unprepared to face a peer to peer enemy, one that could actually fight back and who had spent that same amount of time preparing for a peer to peer enemy.
The US would never have been able to get enough forces in place in Europe to win militarily against Russia and their strategy of expecting to bring them to their knees by sanctions has failed dismally. That bluntly is why we are in the situation we find ourselves now, facing an almost certain Ukrainian defeat (the pledged equipment just delaying the inevitable) with no plan B.
How long do you think until we see this defeat of Ukraine?
Personally I don’t think it will happen. I think within 2 years we will of seen Russia given up. Perhaps trying to keep Crimea and parts of the donbas. Attacks will slow down and Russia will try to hold the line.
This year I see Ukraine making a push in multiple directions. Are they going to be effective enough is above my pay grade.
Meet u back here in x amount of months to see which way it’s went.
I think by the end of this year, Ukraine will have retaken Crimea.
They do that and I can’t see how Russia can continue with its invasion. I imagine they’ll pull their troops back and just lob occasional missiles at Ukraine.
The West foolishly believed that Putin was less of a threat than the Soviet Union and continued to enjoy a peace dividend. What Putin’s toxic mixture of paranoia and misjudgement has done is to re- unite and enlarge NATO, persuade many of its members including the most reluctant to increase defence expenditure and led to large scale emigration of young,well educated Russians.
The ineptness of the “special military operation” hardly suggests 30 years of planning for a peer vs peer war. It is rather evidence of an incompetent military in a corrupt state, run by murderous kleptocrats and in steep long term decline.
Yawn more lies from Putin’s pet poodle 🥱
Perhaps you might explain which part of my comment was lies?
Just the sentences containing a verb or a noun…
😂😂😂
👌
Oh my your nonsense is upping a gear, as is your grasp of recent history. But, we understand, you have a script and you have to follow it.
Complete rubbish. Just one expeditionary USMC or army brigade with its attendant air power and artillery would wipe those orc formations from Luhansk and Donetsk permanently.
A Ukrainian defeat won’t happen, that’s wishful thinking on your part, Ukrainian forces are doing a very adept job at bleeding dry the Russian military. You sound just like you did a year ago with your premature crowing and predictions of Ukrainian defeat. You were wrong then you’re every bit as wrong now, you haven’t been right once in your narrative in this war.
In WW2, Lord Haw Haw was delighted with the Ardennes offensive. It ultimately made no difference to the outcome of WW2. The nazis still lost.
The wishful thinking is I suspect on your part. One USMC or Army brigade wiping out the Russian Army on its own border?
Not at all. The Russian military being in proximity to it’s border is immaterial. They can barely move 40 odd miles beyond it with their tactics that seem to be based on a doctrine written somewhere between Waterloo and Ypres.
US marine Corp/ Army or indeed any top tier Nato military are several orders of magnitude superior in combined arms manoeuvre warfare and would wipe the floor with those organised crime groups and conscripted, poorly led and equipped Russian units. It would be a turkey shoot. During GW2 a predominantly US force of slightly over 100 000 troops routed a much greater number of Iraqi ‘elite’ Republican Guard divisions that were still clinging to their outdated Soviet/Russian tactics and command structure.
It’s no stretch of the imagination at all to see what would happen to Russian formations if they came up against Nato/US. Russia is a busted flush.
UK unprepared to face a peer enemy. Do you mean like 29th world ranked Ukraine?
I think the UK could probably provide Russia with a few very nasty reverse in military fortunes if it ever came to a hot war.
But you know that’s never going to happen. Russia has zero chance of defeating any NATO country because we are NATO. Unlike sad loner Putin the UK has allies and friends.
You’d hope that some of the “more” pledged kit is actually already there plus other stuff done on the quiet. It was needed yesterday, not in next few months or next year. The West, including the UK is hopefully restocking and upgrading back up to sensible levels of inventory with a healthy buffer.
The tragedy as always are the children. I look at my grand children and pray they will be kept safe. This barsteward Putin must be stopped and if our government has any balls they will increase the defence budget NOW. We discuss here whether we can have a plane or a tank or another sub but we need them all. Nothing is ever achieved through weakness and prevarication.
It’s all well and good, people talking about Ukraine fighting some kind of ‘rear guard action’, conceding ground to Russia, whilst consolidating an ‘enclave’ in the west of the country. The thing is, the Ukrainian people will fight to the death before that happens.
My personal view, remains the same as it was when this whole debacle kicked off last year. NATO, the world or whoever, get involved, and end this war as soon as possible.
Unfortunately I’m not sure thats going to happen- war by proxy and outrright direct involvement are two totally different things.
There are many that were surprised Ukraine fought off the initial invasion as it did – inc. many (all?) Western Governments- and of course Putin!
Thats now put them (western governments) , in a different position to where they were 12 months ago. It makes it more difficult for them to judge next steps so slowly they are changing their rules of engagment ( so to speak).
I doubt planes will be afforded so it will be difficult for Ukraine to use the proposed tanks strategically without Air Power.
Lets see where we are in 3 month time- if Ukraine is still in the fight ,maybe some of the tanks may by available and still have a part to play.
Surely the Ukrainians have some but limited air power – and a fair ability to destroy Russian aircraft from the ground.
I wonder what the UN are doing about this?
Knew this was coming sooner or later. After training its “volunteered” replacement in Belarus these last two months. Russia has got the hurry up on. Reasons are simple, the ground is still hard, so vehicles can go off-road. But more importantly no Western tanks are in Ukraine yet, as their crews are still being trained. Clearly Russia want to try and make as many gains possible before Leos, Challys and M1s get in the fight.
My God…. What a bunch of nervous freaking Nellies. Is this the 1940 French website? Calm yourselves. And if I hear one more thing about a chaliy I’m going to vomit.
Dry your eyes, there’s also snot dribbling from your nose……man up and just throw the squaddie socks in the bin.
“And if I hear one more thing about a chaliy I’m going to vomit.”
So now you know how the Russian forces on the front line feel at the moment!
Dick head
Using a word like “nelly” makes you sound straight out of the 1920’s. That word left the vernacular around the time of “balderdash” and “wireless set” 😆
Chally, Chally, Chally – hope you’re now puking all over yourself… it’ll help mask your body odour 😏
Russia amassing aircraft near Ukraine border, Western intelligence indicates
“Russia is amassing fighter jets and helicopters close to the border with Ukraine, Western intelligence officials have reportedly said.
News of the development has prompted suggestions that Vladimir Putin’s forces are seeking to turn their troubled invasion into an “air fight”.
While US defence secretary Lloyd Austin insisted the US did not see imminent signs of a “massive aerial attack”, he is said to have highlighted the threat of Russia’s significant remaining air force in a meeting with NATO allies today.
And the FT reports that intelligence shared among member states revealed the build-up of aircraft near the Russia-Ukraine border, fuelling demands for urgent shipments of air defence assets and artillery ammunition to Kyiv.
The newspaper quotes a senior US administration official as saying of Mr Austin’s briefing to allies: “He was very clear that we have a short window of time to help the Ukrainians to prepare for an offensive and that they had some pretty specific needs.
“The Russian land forces are pretty depleted so it’s the best indication that they will turn this into an air fight. If the Ukrainians are going to survive … they need to have as many air defence capabilities and as much ammunition … as possible.”
Fighter jets for Ukraine not a focus now, German defence minister says
Supplying Ukraine with fighter jets is not a focus at the moment but will certainly be discussed, Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius has said.
Speaking to Germany’s ARD television, Mr Pistorius said: “Only when the skies over Ukraine remain safe over the next three, four months, then you can talk about all other further steps.”
For context: In recent months, Ukraine has been asking allies to provide modern fighter jets – dubbed “wings for freedom” – to replace its ageing fleet of Soviet MiG and Sukhoi planes.
US-made F-16s are on its wish list because of their destructive power and global availability.
It also wants Sweden’s Gripen fighters, though it has said it is still discussing what jets allies could supply.
Ukraine has been relying on its existing fleet to attack Russian positions and carry out intercept flights, but its air force believes that newer jets could turn the tide of the war.”
Courtesy of Sky News.
Whatever is given to Ukraine i just wish it is not “all” broadcasted out loud to Russia and its forces in advance. They really don’t need to know. Ukraine needs to gain the advantage in the “smarts” and contain and pushback on any Russian advances. I think that all this advertising of what we in the West are doing for Ukraine in the next months and years is obviously making Russia react and act sooner, more often and more rashly. Hoping that Ukraine does prevail and convincingly then waiting for the Russian leadership and population to get a reality shock when the “truth” of Ukraine breaks through all their propaganda.
Now if I can “broadcast” something, let’s hope Ukraine is getting some longer range drones/AShM/land attack weaponry soon to take out ammunition, transport, fuel and troop depots and any lurking ships and even subs nearby.
Social media has its advantages and disadvantages, but I think having some idea of what lies ahead for them and knowing how they are being hammered by Ukraine day and night without the added advantage of modern tanks and aircraft will paint a very bleak picture for them of what’s still to come.
Propaganda is one thing, corpses and destroyed equipment is quite another. Unless of course they believe in their own propaganda!
Yes, propaganda first and maybe some truth afterwards.
Not sure if any of the true picture of Ukraine is getting through to the Russian people and what can they do about it? Just hope the Ukrainian forces can knock the Russian forces bloody lights out and push them back over the fence.
Helicopters will get taken apart en mass by short range anti air weapons.
Hopefully they have enough medium range air defence systems to layer the protection and keep aircraft at a long enough distance too.
Fingers crossed 🙏
The odd part is there was news from reputable sources that Russia was building up a force of thousands of tanks and hundreds of thousands of troops for their spring offensive. Where are they. 3-4 days into the offensive and they seem to have moved backwards slightly rather than advanced. If this really is the main spring offensive, and therefore this is the best the can do after months of perperation, then Russia should surrender now. Once the western tanks and additional hardware arrives in the summer, Ukraine will be able to kick them out fully at massive losses to Russia, to a point that China might start looking westward and consider taking some extra land off Russia.
Saying that there still is the real risk that putin might get cornered and as a final roll of the dice go nuclear.
My take.
I think the US and NATO have decided that the realistic strategy this spring is defending against Russian spring offensives along multiple fronts. We have to be pragmatic and aim for what is realistically possible. Ukraine will not be in a position to expel Russian forces from their country this year. To do that will require training, logistics and hundreds of western tanks, F-16s etc.
As I understand the situation the US is shipping 109 Bradleys and 100 Stryker vehicles. Germany has sent 40 Marders, Canada has sent 40 LAV 8×8 s and over a hundred lighter 4×4 APCs ( used to patrol the border with Belarus). The UK will ship 14 CR2 and Germany will ship 14 Leo2; the Netherlands is sourcing refurbished T72s, Poland is sending 60 PT91s and has pledged more,
The bet must be that these assets are sufficient Ukraine to hold the ground they have and to make some strategic advance. I see the Russians being pushed back significantly this year, but not expelled. By the end of the year Ukraine will likely have some F-16 and a larger number of western tanks, probably Leo 1. And the NATO countries will have built more industrial materiel capacity.
At this point the Russian leadership will realise that the ‘special military operation’ has ended.
With a slow pace of Rusian advance measured in metres per day Ukraine should be able to establish numerous lines of defence in depth and withdraw in good order. Europe should supply all available ammo to Ukraine and use the next couple of years to stock up. The UK should also supply a Sky sabre battery to defend strategic cities or industry, and check its performance in a live environment which may increase its sales potential.
Dont want to sound like the usual negativity on here regarding UK supplies but do we have 1 spare to send even if we wanted to?
I think 1 is in Poland (or was being sent) the other in Falklands and not sure how many more (if any) we have.
James I agree the slow pace of production is a problem IMHO Falkland could be defended by tranche1 Eurofighter, in short to medium term Argentina is in no state to try to retake this for several years as I don’t think they have a meaningful airforce and very poor navy, as for Poland the airforce could as part of NATO assist if required
Let them. Better to exchange small amounts of territory for a more favourable attrition ratio than expend capacity holding onto empty fields. Ukraine can buy time to ‘coil the spring’ building up potential for an effective counter-offensive.
When The Guardian makes sense it time to get worried Johno …
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/15/russian-army-has-lost-up-to-half-of-key-battle-tanks-analysts-estimate-ukraine
Last year I watched fascinating YouTube analysis by an independent American blogger on masses of tanks in outside storage across Russia visible on Google Earth*. By careful examination, he deduced that fewer than around fifth were possibly capable of being re-activated. Many more were lacking turrets or main guns and looked very rusty. The majority were older marks of tanks at that – T 55-56, T 65. I think his final estimate was about 5000 could be considered ‘possibles’ out of many thousands in view.
*I have experience in aerial photographic analysis.
Ukranians take out a TOS-1 MLRS that had been equipped with thermobaric warheads. Pretty impressive fireworks.
https://t.me/landforcesofukraine/6810
It will be a tough year but I fully expect Ukraine will prevail. They may be the smaller force but they are better trained, better armed And every day the Russians get weaker and Ukraine gets stronger.
So far the Russian offensive has been a spectacular failure!!