In their latest episode, the panel discussed the ongoing situation on the US-Mexico border, recent fighting between Israel and groups in Gaza, and updates on the Russia-Ukraine conflict as the counter-offensive draws nearer.
This article will focus on remarks made about Russia-Ukraine. The panel includes @DefenceGeek, @Osinttechnical and @AnAustinThing2, with a guest appearance from @All_Source_News.
OSINTTechnical: “So it wasn’t so…how many counteroffensives have been started on Twitter in the past like three weeks, grew up to like five or six… And I think it’s funny to see how kind of almost little control the sort of central Russian state apparatus has over a lot of these male bloggers…”
All_Source_News: “And look like let’s look at 2016, right, the US presidential election, how everybody was like, look at Russia propaganda, right… their whole aspect of hybrid warfare…Russia’s just almost absolute dominance in the information warfare…But at the same time, a lot of times the most accurate depictions we get of Russia’s military comes from military bloggers…”
OSINTTechnical: “Yeah, and I do think that comes a lot from, as you mentioned, kind of this invulnerability that was painted before the war of the Russian military… Russia has had an infatuation with being European for hundreds and hundreds of years… It’s the Russian military, it’s not the US military, it’s not, you know, NATO.”
All_Source_News: “And, you know, you bring up a good point about the Russian military… What happened in the Russian military in the invasion of Ukraine is much more severe than just corruption. I mean, this is an absolute failure of what everybody anticipated the 21st-century Russian military was going to be…”
These quotes emphasise the panel’s assessment of the control (or lack thereof) over Russian bloggers, the shifting dynamics in information warfare, the discrepancy between the perceived invulnerability and the reality of the Russian military, and the profound failure of the Russian military in the Ukraine conflict.
Through their insights, the panel members reveal the significant gap between the projected image of Russian military might and its actual performance.
You can hear the rest for yourself by following the link below!
To an extent the west needed to believe and inflate the conventional threat provided by Russia, mainly due to its nuclear arsenal…you simply have to take a nuclear power more seriously than a none nuclear power…it’s also always better to compete in the deterrence game in the conventional sphere, than the Nuclear one….what the west could not do was decide the Russian conventional threat was trash ( even though there were huge red flags to support this) as it would have been forced to reduce its own conventional deterrence..knowing Putin would have reacted to this in a dangerous way (… Read more »
Just hope that Ukraine doesn’t suffer too many heavy losses especially in its initial stage of the counter offensive. Hope they can get some really good gains done before everyone knows exactlywhere they’re going with what. Bet they’ll be plenty of misinformation going around. Hope they can push on to reclaim their country. Strength to Ukraine 🇺🇦, its people and President!
This UKR counter offensive worries me. It can only come in so many places due to the Russian border and Dnieper river, and the Russians can read a map like everyone else ( ok, maybe not all of them…)
They have also, apparently, prepared defence lines in depth.
I don’t want another Kursk.
The Orcs have proven that in the attack they are not very good,in defence have they training and will to be pounded by artillery before breaking? I doubt it! A defence line of ‘dragons teeth’ not even dug in to the ground is as much use as a chocolate teapot,straight line trenches and are the minefields covered by fire? Not saying that UKR are going to have it easy but judging by the Orcs performance so far there is is hope.
Hi Jacko
Of course there is hope. I am not a military man, and have no idea to what level or quality the Russians have prepared their defences, only that they have.
And the historical precedent, Operation Citadel, that occurred 80 years before almost to the month, and in the same area of the world, struck me.
It depends on the armoured breakthrough. If they can breach the defensive lines in force and rapidly then the old adage a defensive line breached is a defensive line lost should bear out. The Russians will be forced to pull back and attempt to regroup. Not sure if Ukraine has all the armoured specialist equipment like bridging units, mine clearance heavy armour or combat engineering vehicle to support the required armoured fist? I’m hoping they do but it remains to be seen. Ukraine will need a massive deception campaign using fake ELINT, noise, lots of movement to through the Russian… Read more »
“from extensive partisan or special forces activities behind the Russian front”
Which is what seems to be happening now. I don’t visualize some sudden mass attack, but a gradual shaping of the battlespace over a longer period of time. The media waiting for their mass UKR counter offensive and the speculation of “when” it starts may be waiting a long time as the logistics are hit, railways hit, to the extent the Russians crumble of their own accord as their logistics fail.
I think the thing you need to look at is the Kherson offensive. Ukraine advances after long, hard, positional and attritional fighting where Russia eventually had to choose between being overwhelmed and retreating, after which manuever started to open up.
The new souther Front is showing itself to be similiar IMO. Ukraine manages to grab some areas, fights off counter attacks, then pushes the Russians again, and eventually the troops in front of them will run dry.
Morning Dern. Thanks for that insight.
Indeed, I hopoe UKR has a cunning plan that wrong foots Rusian defences expertly. Feeding your few well equipped troops into well prepared axis of attack will somply be a meat grinder. Nobody can afford to fight like that, people are too precious. Russia does it because they’re led by evil men who care nothing for their people, just holding onto power.
Hi Daniele, let’s hope the Ukrainian forces are well armed and well led in the offensive. Don’t want too much of it broadcasted either. Need the smarts as well as the brute force and plenty of it. Hope they’re options to attack anytime, from anywhere, even from behind. Hope they can break through to the Asov east of Mariupol and hold. Would be great to get that town back, drain Russian forces and resources further and then go for Crimea. Anyway, it’s all a bloody awful business, It’s hard to comprehend it’s brutality from our comfort zones. They’re fighting for… Read more »
Hope Ukrainians break through but do think it could come to another stand stll.Like we all know it’s all so pointless 🙄
“and then go for Crimea.”
Not for me. I see that as a red line for Putin and nuclear time. I would see them liberate the rest of the occupied areas up to where the Russians jumped off in 2022. Then stop.
They’ll have to prioritise where and how they attack, succeed and build on that. They’re been peppering Crimea already and yes maybe best left to last. Hopefully some well thought out distractions will help them towards winning through. Seen they’re done the “keep it quiet” TV adds. Good on them, message has got through.
We will have to agree to disagree on that one.
The lack of response to the Crimean annexation by all concerned only enboldend Putin which resulted in his ‘special military operation’.
That act of agression then should not have been allowed to stand then and nor should it now.
I would suggest Ukraine now want the Crimea back ,and I think they should be supported in that venture.
Or Putin will still have profitted from his act…
Hi Griz. That’s fine. The way I see it, he held Sevastopol anyway. Any supposed Profit, as in the land grab of the rest of the area, is offset to my mind by the total mess militarily, economically, and diplomatically Putin has made of his country by his act of aggression. I think one can push too far. The priority must be the survival of Ukraine as a sovereign nation, which last year at the start of the attack hung in the balance. Whether they liberate Crimea or not does not alter that if they can eject the Russians back… Read more »
Totally agree. The UN & rule of international law mean nothing if we allow oppressive autghoratarian regimes to annex neighbours & rat on guarantees of neighbours’ sovereignty, least of all major permanent members of the UN security council. The whole world is watching. How we handle this will either embolden or deter the CCP from attacking Taiwan. Russia & the PRC are part of quite a wide community of authoratarian anti-West nations & we could find ourselves in a global conflict against many who’d like to see the West wind our neck in over freedom & justice. Some of whom… Read more »
I don’t disagree with you about the Crimea, hopefully Putin will fall before then and Crimea can be negotiated back. If Putin remains in power the Crimea provides him with military bases for all 3 services and would forever menace the Ukraine and the Black Sea. This would mandate the Ukraine joining NATO which is another potential powder keg.
Yes I think Crimea is alway going to be a really big problem around any future peace…even when we see Ukraine liberate it’s eastern oblasts the Autonomous Republic of Crimea will be the sticking point… 1) I don’t see how Ukraine is going to invest and remove Russian troops from Crimea….it’s simple to challenging. 2) Crimea is and was a cultural mess and is a bit more complex, I could see it degenerating into ethic violence even if the Russian forces were removed. The sad reality is that the Autonomous Republic was on a different journey to the rest of… Read more »
Geography. A long term solution, might be to split Crimea in two. Ukraine needs North Crimea, for its Eastern peninsula, that could dominate approaches to Odessa. Russia needs South Crimea for the port of Sevastopol & the Kerch bridge. It is one of the few Russian ports not closed by ice in Winter.
I’d destroy the Kerch bridge asap.
Agree. Smash it to smithereens. It is mostly a multi support structure apart from the central span which has a high railway and road bridge running side by side at enough height to allow shipping underneath it. This central section although undoubtedly guarded and strong in construction would be the hardest to repair or replace if it could be brought crashing down.
Alternatively just pepper the bridge deck with so many storm shadows that it is unusable for heavy freight and rail.
The removal won’t really be a problem if the Ukranians get back to Azov coast. With the Water supply in their hands, the land route to Crimea cut off, and the Kerch Bridge under fire, Russia will eventually have to pull back.
My worry with Crimea would be the long term civil unrest issue and ongoing insurgency that would mean Ukraine could never settle and have peace.
There are a number of distinct possibilities how it may kick off. I don’t want to go into too much detail, as it wouldn’t be fair to Ukraine. But there are number of key strategic goals. which are to cut off Russian units from resupply and support from Russia and the Crimea. Be that through the east-west land bridge or the Sea of Azov. But also to create a number of wedges between Russian forces. Thereby creating panic in command as to which is the main thrust to counter. Deception and misdirection are key to allowing Ukraine to get the… Read more »
Thanks for the proper military perspective Davey. As always.
Hi Daniele, sometimes it’s difficult as it’s so easy to say too much. I’m pretty certain that Ukraine has been getting advice from the West. I would say that NATO in general would probably deny any active involvement in decision making. But we do know that Ukraine have had their forces trained by some NATO members since 2014. It’s not an unfair leap to say pre-2022. Ukraine’s brass also did battle modeling and simulations with these NATO forces. In preparation for this year’s counter-offensive. I would definitely bet on Ukraine modeling and even practicing how to break through the Russian… Read more »
I guess Wagner (and Russian forces) effectiveness will be governed by their logistics(or hopefully the lack thereof). I saw the CEO of Wagner on BBC world bemoaning their lack of munitions etc. Unsure if they’ve managed to replenish their stockpiles since then, but really hope not!
Really interesting insights Davey B, thanks for posting.
Most analysts suggest up to 4 axes of advance are possible to secure a significant advantage for UKR at the Operational (between Tactical and Strategic) level. Of course the UKR would not split their forces 4 ways, probably 2 at most. UKR will need local air superiority and at least a 3:1 local advantage in troop ratios to succesfully conduct an offensive on any one thrust line. They (UKR) have conducted some shaping operations and will now need to conduct deception operations in advance of main thrust(s) (maybe they are doing that now). UKR need to avoid offensive combat in… Read more »
I’d say it was reducing our conventional forces so far as to be no deterrent, plus our failures to act decisively & courageously over the last decade(appeasing Russia & China for that matter) that led directly to the 2022 invasion & war in Ukraine. When Russia upped the stakes threatening to invade(again), Biden & Boris both told him not to but pledged none of our own forces would get involved. Huge mistake. If we’d said nothing about wether we would or wouldn’t commit forces it would’ve been better as it would have remained on the table as a threat to… Read more »
Sadly frank I cannot disagree with much you have said, although I would say the reality is NATO still has the military capability to completely destroy the Russian armed forces many times over. I think the big issue is the other bit you mentioned and that is showing your deterrent and then showing the will to use it. a successful deterrent is a triad: 1) the capacity to destroy your enemy ( viability ) 2) the ability to show your enemy that you can destroy them ( visibility) 3) showing you have the will to use your deterrent ( veracity)… Read more »
Agree. The fact Senile Joe and Moron BoJo came out and openly declared they wouldn’t militarily respond to Russia’s invasion just made sure the invasion happened. We’ve been trying to play catch up and make amends since then.
If Biden had said to Putin not one soldier is to tread on Ukrainian territory (whether he meant it or not is irrelevant) the invasion wouldn’t have happened.
On another point looks like Leopards are now engaged in combat.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/05/ukraine-russia-war-latest-news-counteroffensive-belgorod/
Looks like a T80 series vehicle to me in the picture. The turret has rounded edges. C2 and Leopard 2 definitely don’t have that turret shaping. We will know when C2 and L2 do get involved as that will be where the breach is made and the Ruskfascists are in full retreat.
The Ukrainian have to use the C2/L2 tanks superior night vision equipment and attack at night.