Serious risks identified in new British submarine project

The House of Commons Defence Committee has warned that the AUKUS programme risks drifting into bureaucratic obscurity without stronger political leadership from the top of government, in a report published today that calls for the Prime Minister to take a more prominent personal role in driving delivery of the trilateral partnership.

The report, the eighth of the 2024-26 session, concludes that “a programme of AUKUS’ scale and scope will not succeed if it is perceived within Whitehall as one of many defence programmes competing for scarce resources” and that “only strong and visible political leadership from the very top of Government can counter a drift into bureaucratic obscurity and ensure that AUKUS receives the funding and priority that the nation’s defence and security demands.”

The committee is particularly critical of the government’s failure to publish a public version of Sir Stephen Lovegrove’s review of AUKUS, describing it as “deeply disappointing” that more than a year after Lovegrove completed his review, the government’s commitment to issue a public version of his findings had not been fulfilled, saying it “reflects poorly on the Government and is damaging to stakeholder and public confidence.” The committee urges the government to issue the public version of the Lovegrove report as soon as possible.

On the industrial challenge of delivering SSN-AUKUS, the report warns that timely investment in upgrading the BAE Systems shipyard at Barrow-in-Furness is crucial and has already slipped, saying that “any further failures could lead to delay in delivering SSN-AUKUS with serious consequences both for UK national security and for credibility with AUKUS partners.” Sir Stephen Lovegrove told the committee that investment decisions had not always been timely and that infrastructure upgrades had not progressed as quickly as they should have, though he said the pace of investment was now “picking up very markedly” and emphasised that it “will need to be maintained for the next 20 years at a minimum” and that there must be “no excuse for delay.”

The committee describes the regeneration of Barrow-in-Furness as essential to the delivery of AUKUS, welcoming the formation of Team Barrow and the investment committed to date but saying it does not go far enough, describing the scale of the challenge as having been “laid bare” in the evidence before them and during a visit to the town. The report calls for additional funding from central government to provide investment in housing, healthcare, transport and education, stating that “Barrow’s unique role as the home of the UK’s submarine building capability means that failure to do so will jeopardise not only AUKUS, but also the nation’s defence and security” and concluding simply that “the regeneration of Barrow is too big to fail.” The committee also recommends that Team Barrow ensure visible change is seen on the ground as soon as possible to reassure the local community that their role in the national endeavour has been recognised.

Steve Timms, Managing Director of BAE Systems Submarines, told the committee that the key challenge was around the speed of decision making, saying “clearly, to finish programmes on time, we need to start on time” and that it was about “getting the level of coherence and consensus in the early part of the programme, making the decisions that need to underpin that, and providing enough of a runway for the work ahead.”

The committee also flags the risk that Australia’s own decisions, as it works against tight timescales to develop the infrastructure and workforce required for its sovereign nuclear-powered submarine capability, could have implications for the UK’s own build schedule at Barrow, recommending that the UK government coordinate closely with Australia as it finalises its plans and develop contingencies for all possible options.

On the sustainment pillar of AUKUS, the committee warns that fulfilling the UK’s commitment to increase port visits and later rotate an Astute-class submarine out of Australia has stretched the Astute fleet to, or even beyond, its limits, saying that with submarine availability critically low the government must deliver infrastructure improvements at HMNB Devonport and HMNB Clyde at pace to relieve pressure on the fleet, warning that failure to do so risks the UK’s ability to meet its AUKUS obligations while continuing to maintain security in the Euro-Atlantic. The committee welcomed the arrival of HMS Anson in Western Australia as a positive development but was clear that the strain on the fleet was a concern that needed to be addressed urgently.

Workforce growth at HMNB Devonport is identified as key to delivering the infrastructure required to improve submarine availability and prepare for SSN-AUKUS, with the committee calling for timely and adequate funding for Team Plymouth to enable it to meet the workforce challenge and maximise defence-related growth under the city’s Defence Growth Deal.

The report notes that the SDR set out an intention to create a fleet of up to 12 nuclear attack submarines, a significant increase on the current 7-strong Astute fleet, with a commitment to continuous submarine production at a rate of one vessel every 18 months. Delivering that ambition alongside maintaining the existing Astute and Vanguard fleets and delivering the Dreadnought-class nuclear deterrent will, the committee says, require a significant uplift in industrial capacity that comes after years of underinvestment with serious consequences for the resilience of the industrial base.

On public engagement, the committee warns that public awareness and understanding of AUKUS is limited and that public support will be needed to maintain the political capital to deliver the programme across several electoral cycles, calling for the MoD to better engage Members of Parliament in communicating the benefits of AUKUS at constituency level, noting that its own attempts to engage the MoD on this had so far been frustrated.

The committee concludes that approaching five years since the partnership came into being, with changes of government in each partner nation and domestic reviews completed, now is the time to seize the opportunity AUKUS presents and demonstrate the UK’s firm commitment to making it a success.