Ukraine is winning and will win the war against Russia. The many problems afflicting the Russian army point to the failure of the just launched Donbas offensive.
Before Russia’s invasion, most Western experts held the same optimistic view as that of the Kremlin that Ukraine would quickly surrender and the capital city of Kyiv would fall within two days. They were proven wrong and many have egg on their faces.
This article was submitted by Dr. Taras Kuzio, an Adjunct Professor in the Department of Political Science, National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy. In addition to being the former Director of the NATO Information Office in Kyiv, Dr. Kuzio recently published the book ‘Russian Nationalism and the Russian-Ukrainian War‘, you can read more about the author here.
This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines.
There are six reasons why the West should prepare for a Russian defeat.
The first factor is corruption. Although corruption in Ukraine is a regular feature in Western media it pales in comparison to that found in the kleptocratic, mafia state Putin has created over more than two decades in power.
Western experts failed to factor in how massive top-down corruption in the Russian military undermined most of the military reforms that were undertaken after Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia. Very expensive Russian military equipment became stuck in muddy fields because cheaper Chinese tyres had been purchased that could not carry the heavy hold. Russian army trucks were also cheaply purchased and therefore not strong enough to carry military equipment or operate off-road.
Corruption has badly affected logistics, the backbone of any army, and made supplying Russia’s invasion force impossible. Food supplies to soldiers, supplied by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chef to the Kremlin, were seven years out of date. Starving Russian soldiers occupying the Kyiv region were forced to eat dead dogs. Medical kits supplied to soldiers were from 1978, out-of-date Soviet supplies rendered useless in preventing battlefield wounds.
The second factor is that Ukrainian officers have been trained in NATO military academies for over two decades since Ukraine joined the Partnership for Peace Programme (PfP) in 1994.
Since the 2014 crisis, eight NATO members have provided hands-on training with Ukrainian instructors internalizing the training and going on to lead training themselves. Through classes, drills and exercises involving at least 10,000 troops annually for more than eight years, NATO and its members helped the embattled country shift from rigid Soviet-style command structures to Western standards where soldiers are taught to think on the move.’
NATO training created non-commissioned (NCO) officers which Russian forces traditionally don’t have. NCOs provide vital links between senior officers who are rarely seen on the battlefield and sergeants and troops. In the absence of NCOs, Russian generals have been forced to get more involved in daily fighting and eight of them have been killed in the war in Ukraine.
NATO also introduced mission command where senior-level combat goals are transmitted lower down the chain of command where they are adopted in a flexible manner. Russian forces are far more hierarchical and inflexible, making them easy targets for Ukrainian ambushes.
Russian military tactics have not developed significantly since the Soviet era and are therefore predictable. In contrast, Ukrainian forces operate in a surprise manner with attacks and ambushes sowing chaos, panic and defeatism in the Russian army. NATO military equipment, such as NLAWs, Stingers, Javelins, and Turkish Bayraktar drones, are ideally suited for autonomous and agile military units and special forces who can use them to inflict high casualties and destroy large amounts of Russian military equipment.
Azerbaijan in its 2020 war with Armenia and now Ukraine are the first countries to use drones in a major way in wars. Compared to the Turkish Bayraktar, Russian drones are inferior in their optical ability to locate targets and have poorer military capabilities. Ukraine and Turkey are also jointly producing military equipment, including drones.
Western military equipment is augmented by Ukrainian. The Neptune missile that sunk the Moskva flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, with the loss of 500 crew, is Ukrainian built. Ukraine was an important part of the Soviet military-industrial complex and the biggest nuclear weapons factory in the world was based in the Ukrainian city of Dnipropetrovsk.
The third factor is Ukrainians have prevented Russia from dominating the air. Turkey has trained Ukrainians in the operation of Bayraktar drones.
In addition, Ukraine’s air force pilots, who are far fewer than Russian, have been given greater autonomy and have proven to be a match for Russia’s larger air force, shooting down over 300 jets, bombers and helicopters.
The fourth factor is special forces. Ukraine’s military and SBU Security Service) special forces have been trained to NATO standards and equipped with state of the art equipment. This training has been augmented by eight years of experience fighting against Russian forces using different forms of hybrid warfare in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian special forces and marines continue to hold the port of Mariupol.
The fifth factor is Ukraine, with decades of experience in cybernetics (important for Soviet nuclear weapons) and a large IT sector, has excelled at intercepting Russian military communications which have been exceptionally poor, sometimes relying on mobile phones. The SBU, military intelligence and volunteers hack Russian military communications and the intelligence is used to plan attacks. Ukrainian intelligence is augmented with intelligence provided by NATO and US satellites.
The sixth factor is NATO’s training and Ukraine’s democratisation has instilled a respect for soldiers that has never existed in the Soviet and Russian armies. Ukrainian morale is high. Russian soldiers are unsure why they are fighting in Ukraine, leading to low morale and criminality, such as widespread looting.
The Soviet and Russian armies have never had dog tags as casualty rates were unimportant. Ukraine introduced them after 2014. The Russian army is uninterested in its battlefield dead and refuses to collect its dead soldiers from Ukrainian morgues. Towns and villages turn out in high numbers to honour killed Ukrainian soldiers.
Ukraine is fighting a 21st-century war against a 20th century Russian Army. This is why Ukraine is winning and will defeat Russia.
Slava Ukraini.
But “shooting down over 300 jets, bombers and helicopters.”
Really??
in this claims count, may be Mi-28 helicopter would be 90 per cent , or more
i meaning Mi-8 ~ Mi24 , Mi-28 Sukhoi Su-25 old models
Yea – don’t buy that one either. Taking nothing away from the Ukrainians but according to https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html Russian air losses to date are (at least) 26 combat jets, (at least) 38 helos, and (at least) 49 drones.
Impressive but event if the numbers for jets and helos are optimistically doubled, it’s still nowhere near 300.
That’s from February.
Ukrainian defence ministry claims:
• 155 helicopters
• 189 airplanes
That many Sean?
Thanks.
In our history, one of the commanders of the Iranian army during the Qajar period had said: By God, Russia is not as strong as people think. They were about to retreat from Herat. I hope it is well translated. &)
True.
But backed up with Nuclear and Chemical weapons… and a leader who has proved (Salisbury, Georgia, Chechnya) he doesn’t care…
This all looks great but Ukrainian forces will now have to switch from Defence to Offence for Phase 2 of the war to eject the invader – that requires them to outnumber Russian forces (locally), to get into the groove of manouevre warfare and be better at it than their opponents, not to incur many manpower and materiel losses and to continue to have superior logistics to the Russians.
All quite a challenge…and Russia will adopt ever more risky and horrendous TTP; no-one should rule out use of WMD and more widespread commitment of atrocities.
Safe to rule out WMD, which would necessitate NATO direct involvement. As is plainly clear from Russia’s increasingly silly sounding threats, they are desperately worried about the USA entering the war more directly too. There is zero chance they use a WMD.
Strangely the author left off three absolutely key points:
If the defence is successful these three elements will have played a major part.
I agree with you about the PR, it’s been really well done. Another winning factor is the performance of Zelensky himself.
Agree with you both..
Definitely, a storming performance, time after time. As to his scriptwriters, they must be some of the best out there.
Sometimes the script writes itself. The landscape is littered with broken and destroyed Russian hardware, dead civilians with wrists bound, entire cities and towns leveled, and a madman hiding in his bomb shelter dreaming of returning to the 19th century.
Its his country, he is doing well, and your looting, raping, murdering, amateur clowns pretending to be a military ensure he has a script to tell the world. You and your head shed Poop Tin brought this on yourselves. But, as an English patriot, as you claim, surely you should be glad that he is showing an excellent confident front, and being an example oh how to lead…and I’m sure you will agree Putin is the exact opposite, showing the world how not to be a leader! Surely you agree with that, being the English patriot you claim.
As to the point about Russian casualties, Russia is unlikely to attack Ukraine unless Ukraine attacks first. It doesn’t want it as a country due to its corruption, level of debt and number of Russian haters. If it does attack then it is likely to stop at the oblast (county) borders. Such an attack is likely to be over in a few hours without any move by the Russian Army over the border. Russia will have to strike overwhelmingly hard and fast almost as the first salvos are fired as Ukraine’s main priority will be to destroy the infrastructure in Donbas. Russia’s armoury of tube and missile artillery, abetted by cruise missiles, is well capable of achieving that objective against what is in effect a shallow WW1 type front line, armour out in the open, with the locations of everything well known. It will be effectively over before a NATO meeting on it can be convened.
We saw what could be achieved by smart and accurate munitions in the Iraq and that was 30 years or so ago. I know from reading your posts that some of you here faced the Red Army across the plains of Germany. The Russian Army may not be the same but imagine facing it with the munitions it has today. Then feel for the 20,000+ scared, drugged up, young Ukrainian conscripts facing it now.
Yoohoo Johnskie, this is yours form a few months back, interesting reading for the rest of the community on here. There’s more form where that came from son.
I agree totally with DM. As I have already posted, if Russia goes in, which it will only do if provoked, it is likely to be over in hours with no invasion. The militia in the Donbas, fully trained and equipped, will be capable of sorting out the UA after that rain of death. Our QR forces wont have even got to Brize.
There you go, another one of your classics from a few months back. Hilarious. There’s so many I haven’t got the time. to do them all.
Contest sy
topped to prevent further punishment … Or I just run out of numbers.
With perhaps 80-150,000 troops ready to roll within about 100 miles of the border I’d say that any UK support was a complete irrelevance to the Russians. The Donbas militias, with it is assumed some Russian support, crushed the Ukrainian army 2-3 times. Had Russia had any intention to do more, much more, than it did there was nothing militarily stopping them. Same now.
More coming son.
Yoohoo another one of your top posts pal:
You put very well the reason why Russia is highly unlikely to do more in Ukraine than is necessary to defend Donbas if it is attacked. As a by product that might involve the destruction of the Nazi oriented Azoz groups as well as much of Ukraine’s military infrastructure. By using stand-off weapons but there would be little need for many Russian soldiers to cross the border.
Here is a real doozer:
All we know is that the Russians have said they will only react if the Ukrainians attack into the Donbas. The have not said how they would do that so all is speculation.
Another beauty son, your special measures for Azov comment:
Agreed but Azov proved in 2014/15 to be not just ‘normal’ right wing militarism but an active unit that viciously and without mercy applied its techniques in an ethnic cleaning campaign agaist the DNR/LDR separatists. Very proud of their beliefs they were too. Which is why virtually everyone with any interest in the area believes that if Ukrainian forces striking south releases the Russian Army special measures are planned for Azov. Civil Wars can be extremely vicious, as we know from our past.
And again!
Two problems with your comment. Russia’s objective of stopping the attack on Donbas can be achieved without ‘strolling’ in. They will use missiles/rockets etc to bring Ukraine to its knees without going in as such. Second, conscripts are not volunteers and generally speaking do not want to be there. That is why in the fighting of 2015/16 there were SBU units behind the front lines to kill sorry discourage deserters.
Here’s a good one son:
Have any of you supporting our supply of NLAW and encouraging the shipping of even more equipment thought this through?
OK I accept that thousands of anti tank missiles is going to make any attacker pause for thought when used for defence. But as we all know these weapons are equally valuable when used in attack.
You are no doubt aware that the Kiev Government has had a stated objective since 2015 of regaining control of the Donbas, if necessarily by force, and have many 10,000s of troops down there in WW1 type trench systems on the demarcation line waiting for the opportunity..
What if the sudden arrival of so much good offensive weapons systems allows the Government to believe that it has altered the local balance of power such that, given the lack of strategic depth, a quick strike might be successful?
Whilst everyone else knows that the Russians will not let that happen and will strike back hard. In such a situation thousands on both sides will die.
Is this what you want? Do you hate the Russians so much that you want those deaths on that altar?
I love this one!!!!!!
We have different views on Ukraine as a nation. Many on here disagree but I still believe that the only way that Russia will attack is if the Donbas is attacked. What Russia is doing now is maintaining its deterrence posture against a re-equiping Ukrainian army none of which was withdrawn from positions at the front last year.
Another super one son:
We will see who is right in a month or two.
Love this one, though it takes time to read!
Come on guys, get your heads out of the weeds, stop thinking like NCOs and start analysing this from the perspective of a General.
Don’t you think that the Russians have done a full analysis of the potential Intel and locational risks? Don’t you think that they could have located this exercise in a 100 other places and at many different times? Where is it? At a critical point west of NATO.
Have you noticed the other major Russian exercise, with extra troops with all their hardware from the Far East, going down at a similar time in Belarus? At a very critical point to the east of NATO. I would lay money that, unseen by us but visible to those who matter, other deployments are underway off the USA.
Do you think this is a set of co-incidences? Not a bat in hells chance. These two unusual events are where they are and when for a reason and the hint is in the date, early February. What else happens at this time with significant events co-inciding in the past?
How about the Winter Olympics 2014 and 2022? In 2014 the Russians were hosting the event when they were caught with their pants down by the revolution in Kiev, the event limiting their courses of action. Fast forward 8 years and Putin is in Beijing both for the event and a major meeting with Xi. Do you think, with remarkable co-incidence Ukraine going hot again, they are going to be caught like that again?
Putin and the Russian leadership may be unlikable but they are not stupid. They have been telling their population for months that the only way they will touch Ukraine is to save Donbas from attack. If they do anything else Putin is gone, in disgrace. So they have done three things to protect February:
– moved a massive ‘don’t do anything stupid Kiev’ force into place to discourage a False Flag or an attack
– moved at least two massive operational groups into place on NATO’s edges to indicate that if they have to they can hurt NATO so don’t encourage Kiev.
Or do any of you have a better reason? Please lay off the trite responses, you are better than that.
LOVE THIS ONE!
I agree, whilst the quality and quantity of Russia’s land forces and AD in particular has increased over the past ten years or so, it is as much the reduction in NATO’s forces capabilities confronting them that gives the Russians the belief that, perhaps for the first time in 40/50 or so years, they have the upper hand in NW Europe.
This is allowing them to finally point out, from a position of strength, to the US/NATO the commitments they made in the OECD Agreements about mutual security in Europe, rather than, as in the past, taking it on the chin and grumbling.
I reckon that’s enough for now son, there’s so many it does take time, but you and WE ALL get your gist, your a troll, your an apologist and you support the illegal invasion of Ukraine and therefore, by default you support murder, rape and looting. Night night.
😂
may be he is chinese
We have other names for him mate 😂
Wow…..Sherlock. You were up half the night putting that out.
I admit as I started reading at the top down and was not aware that you were quoting I thought…”this is odd, does not sound like our Airborne..!” 😄
Mate I had a few things to do last night even tho I am on a week off, so used my time wisely! Maybe should have referenced them as quotes but it did get boring and I think I will leave him alone for a bit, if he maintains some sort of standards in his comments lol! Cheers mate!
You did well my son! Brilliant in fact. That’s ‘them/him’ stuffed.
Many thanks young man, it was a long boring night so I thought I’d make myself useful lol
Thank you for that trip down memory lane, your efforts are appreciated. I am sure that all those who came to this thread based on the subject matter were a bit non pulsed to find them here.
I am not “nonlpussed” by your previous posts. They are a commentary on the subject matter. Do you agree they are your comments? If so, is there anything you would like to change or revise?
Not at all, most will be laughing at your obvious continued efforts at supporting the illegal invasion of Ukraine and therefore by default you fully support the rape, murder and looting of its citizens by a half trained invasion force headed up by a mentally I’ll chubby bloated Putin Nazi!
Oh we were all amused to see how ridiculous your previously posted propaganda has proven to be…
I assume you’ve dropped the claim Russian’s military was simply on the border for exercises, butterfly catching, and other innocent countryside activities?
Jury Highly Commended.
No, not at all. Non plussed as to why you still bother to rock up though.
👌👌🤣 Comical Johnski…..
I was called into work last night but didn’t do much, it was just a training scenario and as I have some great people with me, I did pretty much nothing lol as you can see 😂
Hope your patio is slabbed and grouted, you’ve earned your few beers!!
Lol not totally mate, I’m not as slick and fast as I used to be, but, got the beer 👍🍺
Very enlightening. I often wonder how most people see what’s happening in a situation and come to the same conclusion. But you always get a few that come to a totally different view point. People disagree on some parts but on the whole are in the same direction of travel. Then the few, how do they come to totally different view?
People can be wrong as I have been myself at times and a to say so is always welcomed. I’ve asked people here who have a different view point to show my how they get to that viewpoint, what the sources etc and I’m still waiting for a response
We can all be wrong mate, but the big thing is, are we able to change our opinions as and when more accurate or updated info comes in, I think I can, you also I’m sure! However all these posts (and many many more) confirm Johnskies inability to do so, and proves he has an agenda which he has to run with! Cheers
Superb Airborne, superb!
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Will do! Not bring disrespectful, just reminded JohninMK about his previous Putin excusing comments! I am fully willing to discus his point of view if he will reply in a constructive way! Many thanks for your time and and an informative and readable website 👍
That’s where his actor status and screen acumen come in, no doubt. Not the first with that background, obviously. However, comes from an intellectual family and has a decree in law, evidently. So, all in all, a good choice for Ukrainian leader, and a fortunate choice of proxy war leader for us all.
As an erstwhile comic was great at irony & taking piss out of politicians. Should be able to see the funny side of humiliating Raz ultimately.
Did some of those not come from his TV career?
Well you have the worst script- writer. Who writes your rubbish? Peskov?
Airborne has neatly showcased that absolutely craven pro Russian bullshit you have been peddling and continue to do so.
To paraphrase what Lenin once remarked, you’re a useful idiot, and not much else.
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I think you mean speech writers, this is war, not a f#cking tv show, you ignoramus.
Churchill didn’t have a speech writer, what makes you think Zelensky has? Churchill is regarded as the greatest Briton for his role during WW2 and Zelensky has certainly shown himself to be Ukrainians equivalent.
You do not need a script writer when a picture paints a 1000 words, Your Russian brothers are so far up their own arses they can not be bothered to hide their pillaging, If they spent as much energy actually being a soldier rather than looting and raping they would have won the war by now.
JIMK wrote:
There is that, but Russia also has access to those 3 key points.
1) It ‘s ISTAR capability is actually over the battle area rather than flying hundreds of miles away
2) Shipped in more supplies and equipment than NATO and the EU has
3) As for PR, id replace that with misinformation, I mean so many idiots actually believe that the Ukraine was full of Nazis, that it has lots of bio labs, that they were shelling and killing thousands of Russian speakers across the Donbass, that they were going to launch a nuclear attack on Russia, that Moscow hasn’t even invaded, that the Moskva had a fire, made it back to port and then sank.
As i mentioned above, the main reason the Ukraine is holding its own, is simply because the Ukrainians have the will to fight,as they say 1 volunteer is worth 10 press men. They know what they are fighting for, Now contrast that with a spotty faced teenager who believed he was going on an jolly.
A simple explanation is possible that Russian weapons are shit.
Are there still people in awe of Russian weapons?
I think the problem is that Russia puts too much faith in their weapon tech and no effort enough into training and logistics. The only tactic that works for them is to flatten anything in their way with Artillery and airstrikes
Russian military doctrine hardly seems to have shifted from Soviet days. Totally top down, with little autonomy or scope for intelligient action by those on the front line. A hang over from the endemic mistrust within the Soviet system…..
He did mention outside intelligence. Quote: Ukrainian intelligence is augmented with intelligence provided by NATO and US satellites.
From what the author is saying that after 2014 Ukraine looked at how it could improve its military using what it had and what would give it the biggest uplift. Training had played a massive part. The years of fighting the separatists has also given a lot of experienced soldiers and knowledge of how they would fight and communicate.
One of the big achievements is the attitude that they can win and are fighting for their countries survival and will die trying if needed. They also know the rest of Europe and nato are supporting them.
Russia was clearly not equipped for this near peer war and had badly misread the situation and expected outcome. Russia should really of pulled back to Crimea and Donbas lines already. The losses on all sides are horrific and the destruction of a prospering country is so unnecessary.
I agree training is a major factor between the performance of both sides. In Ukraine’s favour they have been training with NATO. Seeing how we do things, especially around the NCO cadre and brought those lessons home. It also helps training against different militaries, as each brings something different to the party. Unlike Russia, where it seems the training is always the same and against the same “red force”, with China being no exception.
We all knew that the Russian ruling hierarchy was corrupted, but not to such an extent. With large scale skimming from the top, it has left very little for modernisation, let alone proper maintenance and replenishment. With everybody being a yes men, nothing bad it seems gets reported up the chain. Therefore those at the top, believe their forces are at the top of their game and have plenty of resources, over what in their eye should be an easy win. Clearly the easy decimation of even their elite units such as the VDV, must have come as a severe shock. Which places Tonto and his cronies in a very precarious position. Either they are seen to win in the south east of Ukraine, or they loose a lot of face politically. Which will be seen as a failure and may result in a regime change from within.
sharp point.
The role of U.S.- and British-backed surveillance assets was responsible for Ukraine’s victory.
Also left off the fact that funding for the Russian military increasingly lacking
I’d also add in Ukraine’s almost unique ability to self-organise at almost every level from the top echelons of government all the way down to hyper-local.
Russia used to be considered a superpower, so support is not needed. In most wars, any none superpower country/empire gets support, nothing new here. In the end, it is the boots on the ground who win/lose a war, not downplaying the support where without it, there is no way to win.
Actually there is only one reason:
The will to fight.
The will you fight and being helped with equipment in areas it needed. Now to keep that support flowing in crucial.
Exactly, Ukraine will go down in history like we did in WW2. Russia is making a mess, and are not getting valuable supplies. “I cannot forecast to you about the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped up in an enigma: but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest” Winston Churchill.
That’s amply covered by point 6.
The problem for Ukraine will be going on the offense.
How many of their officer cadre acriss the entire G spectrum have practised coordinated offense, with vital logistics entailed element working?
Russian Air may be more effective as it attacks displaced Ukr AD assets on the move, the consumption rate of arty will be a challenge even US troops might baulk at.
However, I wish them luck.
Mmmmm. Not sure i agree Ukraine is winning just from the situation on the ground and who is holding what. 300 Russian aircraft shot down by Ukrainian pilote? Where has this come from? Even if half true the Russians appear to have pretty much nailed air dominance
No they haven’t nailed air dominance. starstreak and stinger systems will prevent close air support for the Russian army from Su 25 and attack helicopters. The Ukrainian air force is still flying and still contesting air superiority- something no external observer would have thought possible several weeks ago. The performance of Russia’s much lauded air force has been frankly rubbish. NATO’s superior C3 and ability to pursue a strategic air campaign would tear Russia’s air force to pieces in very quick order.
I don’t think 300 Russian aircraft have been lost but I have definitely seen via social media, youtube postings at least 100 Russian aircraft being shot down- crucially many of these have been the latest high performance jets and attack helicopters- highly costly and not easily replaced (because of sanctions on sales of key components) due to their expensive optics, sensors and targeting systems.
The Ukrainian air force is winning just by remaining in opposition and continuing to fly and fight.
A bit like the RAF in the battle of Britain, they win by perseverance and continuing to exist.
Why do you still bother John ? Does the Kremlin seriously believe that by infiltrating a British web forum that they’ll somehow miraculously turn around public opinion in their favour , or is your CO holding the muzzle of a 5.45 to the back of your head ?
Just out of curiosity our theme tune was “The Lincolnshire Poacher” is yours “Lara’s Theme” from Dr Zivago ? 😆
The article is interesting and thought provoking
How are Russia losing the war- well where do you start?
Poor training- lack of training of their armed forces due to having an excessively large and complicated armed forces, appearing to be a super power but without the budget to support such an armed forces structure. therefore logistics, training and high-end weaponry are missing in action.
No clear battlefield objectives and if there were objectives these have not been cascaded down to the units on the frontline.
Piss poor deployment of Russian army units advancing down major highways and being lulled into pre-selected and readied ambush and kill zones.
Russia’s army having the logistics to support only 6-7 days of frontline operations, thereafter logistics deteriorate rapidly- the Ukrainians knew this and allowed Russian army units to pass to then attack their supporting logistics convoys and blow them to pieces. result, mobility kill on the entire Russian frontline.
Russia’s air force is large but cumbersome, not trained in the concept of delivering a strategic air campaign. There tactical expertise seems to run to send a few jets up in pairs or at most a quad and hit a single target or patrol around this area on CAP without any clear objectives of where the Ukrainian air defence network is located (its highly mobile) and what enemy opposition both airborne or ground based they are facing. I actually believe somewhere in the region of 200-300 aircraft have been shot down. The fact Russia’s air force has Sukhoi Su27-35 series aircraft numbering in their hundreds and still cannot gain air superiority over Ukraine says much about the air force. Its lack of strategic planning, its ability to prosecute a war, its training, its lack of advanced stand off munitions etc etc.
So the reason Russia is losing and Ukraine is holding out so well are all down to Russia. The Russians can blame NATO but all we are doing is providing weaponry to support the Ukrainians defending themselves. If Russia does not want to suffer causalities at the hands of NATO weapons deployed by Ukrainians then they need to withdraw from their murderous, swimming in rape of young women and girls, looting festival of a war in Ukraine, a sovereign and democratic country that they have zero right to being in.
Also most militaries have problems with conscripts. Even the Israeli army has had their own problems with them. Remember their soldiers using their cell phones to call their mother’s while in combat.
3 “Ukrainians have prevented Russia from dominating the air” – Russian Air Force is huge and Ukraine air defence was never ready… and the argument of the Turkish drones as contesting that is not valid… they are not purposed for air to air combat
You have to ask yourself where are they then? So huge but can’t generate the sorties required to actually make a huge difference.
Keeping well clear I’d say. The RuAF clearly has respect for UkAD and is avoiding it like the plague. It is still making a “huge difference” either by using its stand-off air to ground missiles fired from a safe distance or using CAS in areas where most AD has to keep its heads down due to artillery. The RuAF showed in 2015 in Syria that it could support a good sortie rate, no reason why they shouldn’t now.