Snake Island – Gut Feelings and Impressions

That is the missile that the US seems to have agreed not to supply. Supposedly to reduce the chance of Ukraine aiming one at Russia proper.

No need for that as Kyiv owns 80+ (well did at the start of Feb) BM-30 Smirch MRLS. With a bog standard range of 90 miles , it is able to hit the Island situated behind Odessa. Seeing as the Russian MLRS systems were designed for saturation targeting of a given area, there is nothing stopping the Ukrainian from basing 10 such systems around the region in range and quite literally wiping clean the surface of the island basically doing a job it was designed to do.

This does not need that.

Kerch Bridge and Sevastopol do, however.

I’d say this is a good plot to get a nice selection of Russky equipment where it can be later destroyed without anywhere to run.

JIMK wrote:

There are other big potential reasons for Russia to to grab and hold onto the island. Namely to stop Romania from seizing it and turning it into a NATO outpost

I’m sorry but what utter tosh, and then you have the neck to add an anti NATO barb in which to substantiate your pro-Moscow leaning which as we all know will see you don a tin foil hat as protection from the incoming fire you know will come your way, which in turn allows you to play the victim card. Whilst I don’t approve of any abuse (especially the stuff that comes your way) you are guilty of winding up those who do. And here we are with such an example. Just think if you were a little smarter, less polarised and less arrogant others would be nicer.

JIMK wrote:

It looks like Russia wants that as well now, making any cost of the current military activities a good investment for the future.

Really, how many ships has Moscow lost off around that Island? How many Russians have lost their lives. For somebody who has openly opined over the loss of Ukrainian lives, hinting that all they have to do is stop fighting in which to save lives (as well as end the food/fuel /crisis) you are here, contrary to your own stance ignoring the huge death and equipment toll Moscow has suffered regards its invasion of the Ukraine and try to passoff all of the above as and I quote:
“”A good investment for the future.””
Let see, the Island is around 30 miles off the coast of the Ukraine. As I pointed out above the BM30 MRLS with a range of 90 Miles is able to wipe the surface of that Island clean from Odessa. If 10 such vehicles did so, moved fired again and then again. Moscow would end up with a huge loss of its so called good investment. Not only that, but all they have to do is ensure that the last salvo contained AP mines in which to degrade Moscows ability to operate from the island.

As somebody who wore many instructor hats, one thing i found out the hard way was opinions are not facts and always check your facts, then check again, as there is always somebody out there, who knows more than you and it is very embarrassing when caught out.

Oh look, the Russian Troll is playing “NATO aggression” card. Colour me shocked.

Still no condemnation of Putins invasion I notice, even while inventing non-existent Romanian annexations.

Give yourself a break. OK here is an easier question, rather than the one you are afraid to answer. Would you like to see Russia end it’s illegal invasion, return to its pre invasion Russian border and allow peace in Ukraine, therefore stopping the killing and allowing Ukraine to rebuild, and decide its own national and international future. We all await your answer.

Utter nonsense.

Unlike facist Russia, Romania is a law-abiding democracy and would not try to seize Ukrainian territory for its own imperialist ambitions. There was a dispute between Ukraine and Romania over exclusive maritime zones and this was settled at the ICJ – not Russian style on the battlefield.

Putin wants Snake Island because if his deranged imperialist ambitions to rebuild the USSR. Militarily it could be seen as a stone frigate off the coast of Odessa, but then it might also prove to be unsupportable – as the RN thought if Heligoland when under a British possession.

The Russians must have been disappointed when they took it though. No civilians there to rape, torture or murder, unlike all the other places they’ve invaded.

I read that Russia now controls somewhere between 20-25% of Ukraine but that total includes Crimea and pre February LDNR. As you say, comparing that to an equivalent area in the west of Europe really brings home the shear size of the country.

Snake Island is indeed a side show with no real significance. Similarly now that the land route from Rostov via Mariupol is now open to Crimea, the Kersh Bridge is much less critical.

The public announcement, by I think Biden, that NATO would not interfere, made before Russians attacked, in my view really put the nail in Ukraine’s coffin and probably reflected military advice that it would have been hazardous to have done so and been counter to the US strategic objective of remaining strong whilst weakening Russia. Unfortunately the US’s big hope against Russia, sanctions, hasn’t worked leaving the West in an invidious position. Even worse, from what seems to be happening in the US press, the US electorate, knowing and caring little about anything outside their borders, looks to be getting bored of Ukraine and there are the mid terms in November right in the front of the minds of US politicians.

I agree with you Gavin. We deploy all the excuses we can find rather than doing what’s necessary to hopefully bring this nasty war to an end. This is exactly what our forces exist for; to repell such naked aggression & barbarity. Appeasing Putin in effect has not worked. Nor should we pander to his properganda or paranoia when whole towns & cities are being carpet bombed. We must stop holding back Ukraines defences & allow them the tools needed along with our own assisting. We’re deluding ourselves that we’re not already at war with Russia & China. They talk & behave quite hostile towards us.

Putin pretty much through his threat a few days back to Kazakhstan (for daring to say it will not recognise the two illegal Ukraine Republics) claimed that all former Soviet entities are mother Russia, they either submit to Russian hegemony or will be brought militarily back into the ‘homeland’. Now whether this is limited to those who were strictly part of greater Russia (worrying enough) beyond Ukraine for that means Baltic States (war with NATO), Finland, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan (war with Turkey) at the very least. But does he refer to non Russian States that were part of the Soviet Union ie Poland, Romania, Czech and Slovaks, half of Germany? Well at least it clarifies why he insisted on NATO to withdraw its forces to beyond those ‘borders’ before all this doesn’t it. Either it was because all these lands he claims would 1) have no choice but to submit (like the Ottomans once imposed) as subjugated to their will as states that were too small or too scared not to do as they are told for threat of actual invasion, or 2) leaving those lands open to that invasion bit by bit with Ukraine being but the first domino anyway no doubt with the threat of a nuclear response if NATO then as they would claim reneged on that move back agreement. The big plan of Putin to become Peter the Greater is becoming clear and obvious to anyone who can objectively think beyond his self serving original claims of security for Russia. No this was a full scale attempt for personal glory as his health decays, revenge for perceived previous humiliation and most pertinently no doubt in this changing world, a need to make Russia relevant and ‘powerful’ as a junior partner to ever expanding and powerful China. Shame the useful idiots and US rednecks and isolationists for that matter don’t understand these dangers that will flatten them as much as the rest of us if it comes to pass.

Sorry, just now reading the comments this has been pointed out.

I got educated last week.

The Army don’t do grid square removal anymore.

Then again the surface fleet skimmers are nearly out of the warship removal business too.

Times are changing Daniele.

Well that’s the russian fantasy version of events. Reading between the lines, russian forces on the island took a hammering from a missile strike.

You post a press release from the Ministry of Lies and think that’s acceptable?

As per usual facts show that Putin is a bigger liar than Pinocchio. Satellite images from Maxar show that Russian positions on Snake Island suffered heavily from the Ukranian attack, with large burnt/ scorched sections visible. So much for the hilarious Russian claim “we shot everything down” 😆

With no comment. Of course you would.

No Russian losses my arse. And rhey mention M777s but then completely fail to mention them in the (apparent lack of) damage report. It’s almost like their anti-air systems can’t take out artillery shells or something…

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn, so more bullshit from Nazi Russia. Now, how about having the nads to admit you are a Nazi, who supports this invasion of Ukraine and you support Putin. Eveyone is allowed an opinion, it may not be nice to some, but you are allowed one. However, it would seem you are to cowardly to admit it, or to scared to deny it. As it is you are a sad troll, one who has made quite a few obvious mistakes while pretending to be an impartial observer.

Thanks for the link, interesting take on the last 30 or so years. A few points where a western spin was visible, like aspects of 2014 and Crimea, then ignoring the current Chinese gas pipe and puffing up the status of the actual reserves in Ukraine. I don’t know enough to comment on some aspects but he puts it very clearly. Its late so I’ll leave it at that.

That it isn’t common knowledge, although no doubt well known in Washington, and being exploited by the PR operations surrounding Ukraine possibly means that they have a different, perhaps less clear cut, view of this subject based on the information they have.

On SI what exactly was the damage done is unclear and Ukraine attacked again today. No doubt this is a tactic they will continue.

I agree that Odessa neads reopening but until something is agreed about de-mining it is unlikely.