UK Defence Intelligence released a new assessment on the 7th of August, 2023, detailing the current state of Russian air operations in Ukraine.
According to the update, “The Russian Air Force continues to consistently deploy considerable resources in support of land operations in Ukraine, but without decisive operational effect.”
This statement highlights a continued pattern of heavy Russian airforce involvement, yet questions the overall effectiveness of these operations.
The intelligence report provided insight into the frequency of Russian activities, stating that “over the summer, Russian tactical combat aircraft have typically carried out over 100 sorties a day”. However, these sorties, or mission flights, are reportedly “almost always restricted to operating over Russian-controlled territory due to the threat from Ukrainian air defences.”
The Russian forces have been trying to circumvent this limitation. They have been “increasingly using basic free-fall bombs with range-extending glide attachments.”
This strategy allows aircraft to release their payloads several kilometres away from their intended targets. However, Defence Intelligence noted that these bombs “have yet to demonstrate consistent accuracy.”
The report also noted a decrease in the effectiveness of Russian attack helicopters, which were initially successful at the onset of Ukraine’s southern counter-offensive in June 2023.
According to the update, “in recent weeks Russia appears to have been less able to generate effective tactical airpower in the south.”
The full text is as follows.
“The Russian Air Force continues to consistently deploy considerable resources in support of land operations in Ukraine, but without decisive operational effect. Over the summer, Russian tactical combat aircraft have typically carried out over 100 sorties a day, but these are almost always restricted to operating over Russian-controlled territory due to the threat from Ukrainian air defences.
Russia has attempted to overcome this issue by increasingly using basic free-fall bombs with range-extending glide attachments. Aircraft can release these many kilometres from their targets, but they have yet to demonstrate consistent accuracy.
At the start of Ukraine’s southern counter-offensive from June 2023, Russian attack helicopters proved effective. However, in recent weeks Russia appears to have been less able to generate effective tactical airpower in the south.”
Russia has quantity but no quality, and it appears in this case quantity does not have a quality of its own.
But it does. It surpresses Ukrainian operations and keeps Russia in the game. In a way it sort of shows that a lot of potential danger is effective in restricting opposition even if it is not in itself directly effective. A lesson could be, if you don’t have air superiority a lot of low grade threat is still useful. Or am I reading it wrongly?
But considering the size of the Russian Airforce it should be having far greater effect if as some say quantity was a quality. If your going low tech them you need a lot of volume think carpet bombing.
That’s from quantity. If they had quality, they wouldn’t be getting so much losses.
The number game.
I don’t think it’s that simple in this war.
Ukraine has quantity of land based portable anti aircraft platforms, which has made the traditional NATO appproach of air dominance impossible. Making it insanely dangerous for russian jets to operate how they traditionally would. Would NATO jets have had more luck defeating Ukraine air defences, who knows, there isn’t a similar war to compare to. Iraq air defences were very dated and even then it was the US growlers that made the difference for the RAF. Russia also held back most of its better aircraft at the start which gave NATO time to supplement Ukraine’s air defences.
Clearly russian jets and bombs are not as advanced as NATO ones, but the style of the warfare erc, makes it hard to know if that has been the defining factor or not. In other words would f35/typhoons/f15s been able to operate any more effectively. Especially when considering we are a year in and western stocks of top end smart ammo would also have long run out by now.
Well, I realise the fact that there’s many informed people on this journal, which I enjoy,but I’m gonna throw one out there. Is it a case of the ruski aircraft are,poorly maintained, airframes outage,parts shortage, aircrews defaulting, or very very bad leadership..or conversely is the head Orc keeping it’s toys in the box for later???.🧐🙃👍
TVM George. thanks for the hard work.👍⭐
DH, I am of the opinion that it’s probably all of the above. Through lack of investment in training, particularly pilot flight hours. But also the lack of modern avionics and stand-off weapons. For instance, how many images have there been of Su-35 with a Garmin fitted to the glare shield next to the HUD? But perhaps Russia’s Air Force biggest failing is the lack of suppression of enemy air defences (SEAD). By not prioritising and maintaining the pressure, they have not been able to degrade Ukraine’s air defences. Which then dictates how the air war is fought, i.e. either flying low level or lobbing weapons from a safe distance outside the air defence umbrella.
Both options come at a risk. By flying low level you are seriously at risk from MANPADS, which can only be detected as they launch, if the aircraft has a missile approach warning systems (MAWS) fitted (and working). The second option of lobbing bombs and rockets from outside the defensive umbrella, means without third party guidance, its a so-so chance that they will hit the intended target.
It seems Russia do not have modern equivalent tactical stand-off weapons like Brimstone or HARM. They rely on the Kh-25 and Kh-31 series. The Kh-25 was a Soviet designed weapon and has quite a lot of variants. It has not been widely used by the Russian Air Force. The larger Kh-31 was initial designed as a supersonic anti-ship missile. Then was developed into an anti-radiation missile (Kh-31P) This had 3 different passive seeker heads, where each head was tuned to a specific radar frequency. The passive heads had to be fitted on the ground. The pilot could not target a radar that was operating outside the head’s set frequency for example. This has subsequently been developed in to the Kh-31PK, that uses a multiband passive seeker. From what I can gather, it does not use a GPS receiver. So if the target radar switches off for a while, the missile can only guess where the last location was, unlike HARM and therefore likely miss.
This is really scratching at the surface, as I’m sure there is also widespread corruption as per the other services. Where bits of kit have been sold off for personal gain. Or someone has purchased very cheap Chinese equipment/spares, which break down as soon as they’re used. But I would also add, their strategic thinking is way off. With the size of their Air Force they should have dominated Ukraine’s skies. But because they didn’t have dedicated SEAD missions. They have squandered their aircraft, pilots and air power. With the West’s backing of Ukraine, Russia won’t get a second chance.
Thanks DB. Am I right in thinking a lot of Orc air was manufactured in 🇺🇦?? 😳 😅.
The majority of optical missile seekers were made in Ukraine, this also include thermal sights. However, after the Crimean invasion/take-over in 2014, Ukraine cut-off all military hardware and components exports to Russia. Russia set up a number of factories in Belarus to make these parts. However, the quality is not as good.
The main aircraft manufacturer in Ukraine is Antonov, who make the big transport aircraft. The Russian company Ilyushin has been tasked by the Russian Government to build replacements for the heavy lift An-124 aircraft and light tactical An-24 aircraft.
👌👍TVM, DB.
DB,
The Ukrainians should also probably receive some credit re how this is playing out. UKR lost 60+ frontline a/c last year, this year 7 thus far, per a Forbes article. Adapt, improvise, surmount. One mantra drilled into me is that flexibility is the key to airpower. These Ukrainians impress even a jaded old sod like me. Just read that they are using larger UAVs for med evac flights (~400 lb, ~40 nm), a first of kind demonstrated capability. If crazy Ivan doesn’t nuke them in the interim, predict a credible UKR AF, in the next 5-10 yrs. The Ukrainians and Poles will form an interesting combination, able to stand eyeball to eyeball w/ the Orcs in any conventional scenario. 🤔🤞
And you Brits should be able to derive tangible benefits from being long term supporters/benefactors of both. Not certain whether to state “good show” or “good on you.”
“Good show” is a bit upper class and is increasingly ‘old hat’. Stick with “good on you” ….or “good on yer” if you want to appear ‘street’.
I read that article and it failed to explain the why less losses this year than last. It could be better tactics or could be less usage because there are less left. Stats are meaniless without proper context and analysis. Certainly it’s amazing the Ukraine airforce is still in the flight but hard to really tell how much they still are.
Believe article also stated that approximately two thirds of losses had been replaced by in kind donations from selected NATO AFs. However, article silent re replacement pilots. 🤔
If you look at the counter offensive, the Ukraine tank loses has dropped heavily, so you could think they are now using them better. The reality appears to be that the mine fields have resulted in it becoming an infantry and artillery slog and tanks are being held back, and so not being used at all, don’t use them then less losses.
Yes, believe the UKR had visions of punching through Orc defenses and having their armor cause havoc in rear areas. If only…
I think it’s still possible. They are making slow but steady progress. Once they get behind the main defensive lines they will be able to move their armour up and there should be less mines. At least that is the theory.
Will Russia not have built multiple defensive lines at different distances? Not being negative but even ‘when’ Ukraine does get a good breakthrough they will be channeling forces through a narrow corridor and potentially straight into another defensive line which could be disastrous for the people on the ground.
They have and there is a map showing them. Different number of lines in different areas but none are unlimited. If Ukraine can fully break through in any area, then they get behind the defenses and mine fields and are free to use mobility warfare to break down the other lines and isolate them. Just a question of whether they can get through, which at the minute is anyones guess as Russia is now starting to counter attack.
Lets hope they can make progress and get back some good ground.
I would guess the counter attacks are happening the areas Ukraine are effectively stalled in, not an ideal scenario.
If they could even get partial air superiority in some areas it really would be a massive boost to them.
The Russians are going to find their own mines prevent a breakthrough in a counter attack; so they seem to be on a one way ticket.
This will likely go on till the Russian defensive line backs onto the beach, then its game over for the Orcs. I believe it will be-one day.
I think some of the problems are the bottlenecks in requesting airstrikes, getting targets up the chain and back down again.
Russia just seems unable to quickly react, they don’t seem to be waiting for a target from the ground teams. Does Russia do forward air controllers? Lots of other issues aswell as mentioned.
Hi Monkey S. Ruskis?? Dunno. I do know that it’s extremely difficult to execute amphibious warfare without dedicated fwd cntrlrs. So, if Orcs aint gottem… Explains a lot. 👏👌
Aand, one less amphibious Orc ship works for me
👍.
😁👍
The war is too big for the Russian air force current employment level.
I suggested a while ago that the high density minefields the Russians have scattered will prevent the Ukrainian counter offensive from succeeding. But the mines will also prevent the Russians from advancing into the Ukraine. The Russians will have to leave forces to defend their meaningless gains and do not seem to have the strength to open a Northern front.
It seems likely a stalemate will develop.
But from the barbaric behaviour we have seen, not just Putin but also his Russian supporters, actual peace in Europe is now a distant prospect.
This is no minor squabble. The Russians are stealing children. Children!!!.
This is not baseless propaganda. The UN backed International Criminal Court, in the Hague, has issued a warrant for Putin’s theft of children.
A truce may be negotiated but the will be no Peace.
Putin and Russia has embarked on confrontation with the West. The West learned a bitter lesson when it last tried to appease a tyrant. History has thrown the dice. The West has no option. Until Russia’s lust for savage conquest is extinguished the West has to rebuild its defences.
The absolute dishonesty and brutality that Russia has demonstrated means there can be no trust until Russia apologises and pays reparations.
People in the West need to get used to the reality that Russia will be a real danger for many years.
Seems like the ‘Peace Dividend’ and Options for Change made the huge mistake of expecting a rational foe in the crimlin whereas kaputin has created such a toxic fantasy that he believes his own lies and acts according. Let’s hope CDS has asked ChatGPT and war gamed all the responses.
My thoughts entirely. The Russians are a lot of extremely bad adjectives.
The logic in Russian laid Mines preventing the advance of Ukrainian Forces is simple – how do they prevent a Russian Advance ?.