The Tempest project has been given an “amber/red” rating by the Infrastructure Project Authority, warning more funding is required or their could be a delay in the aircraft entering service.
According to the 2021 Annual Report on the Government Major Projects Portfolio from the Infrastructure and Projects Authority, which can be found here, Tempest is categorised with a level of risk.
Through the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy the Future Combat Air System received investment for the first 4-years to complete the Concept and Assessment Phase. A phase that will complete an Alternative System Review of the Future Combat Air System including the Core Platform, as well as establishing the international partnerships.
The level of investment was significantly less than required, however it preserves the feasibility of the programme within current parameters, but adds significant overall programme risk, particularly to the assumed date for Initial Operating Capability. The Concept and Assessment Phase will provide the evidence for Programme viability including level of additional investment and/or other options for the provision of Combat Air. Investments and milestones beyond this phase are subject to a margin of error in terms of time, cost and performance that will be refined prior to the next decision gate.”
What does ‘Amber/Red’ mean?
The IPA describe this rating in the following way:
“Successful delivery of the project is in doubt, with major risks or issues apparent in a number of key areas. Urgent action is needed to address these problems and/or assess whether resolution is feasible.”
What is Tempest?
Tempest is the RAF’s next generation combat aircraft, coming into service from 2035 to replace the Typhoon.
The report goes a bit more in-depth than I just have.:
“Future Combat Air will play a vital role in the United Kingdom’s military strategic capabilities for decades to come, enabling us to defend the United Kingdom, our allies, and make a decisive contribution to global security. The Future Combat Air Systems Programme will design and deliver innovative systems of highly networked crewed and uncrewed air vehicles, sensors and effectors to be able to operate in a range of complex and evolving threat environments and preserve operational advantage for future decades.”
Everybody saw this one coming. My contempt for this government is growing fast.
So if we’d voted for the alternative where do you think advance fighter jet development would be? Reality is no party if backing defence there no votes in defence.
Blame Brexit. Beyond that UK does not have enough funds to do it alone.
Now there’s a surprise. Not.
Typical HMG, big talk that amounts to nothing.
Exactly, and certain corporations will shout “we need more money”. Ike warned the world about them, he was ignored.
The engineering development will highly likely cost more, even though some of Typhoon tech will be used, integrated into the aircraft.
Well we are borrowing every week just to keep country going
Nothing appears to change when it comes to such projects as Tempest, if it’s reliant on government money. Why do all major UK defence programmes go the same way? Money is tight right now and it will only get worse as COVID aftershocks make an ongoing impact on industry. If tempest survives, it will overrun and cost significantly more than early estimates, just the nature of the beast.
And you can guarantee that there will be endless committees filled by mates of mates, enabled to endlessly examine the issues, the whys the what’s and the wherefores, eventually are many false deadlines, come up with inconclusive 1000 page out of date reports which just delay it further and add to the costs until we are told the program will continue in some form but focus on bringing the technology into other projects rather than that originally envisioned which will no doubt be called the Camel I fear. Which over time Boris and his then current cronies, will sell us is thoughtfully named after yet another classic British fighter but in reality is just a horse designed by a very political committee.
But then to a degree it has achieved Boris’s main desire to disguise as Brexit came to fruition Britain looking like a lonely outcast from the European alternative program with the bad look of at least two former partners jumping ship from previous collaborations to team up with that historical competitor France, making us look like a technological loser and dead end post Brexit. Potentially worse still even soon after potentially leading to our biggest technological employer considering quitting the Country to establish a new headquarters across the pond. The death knell to any hope Boris and co would have to establish a positive Post Brexit legacy and success story before it hardly got out of the stalls. So one fears it’s a matter of feeding in enough cash to maintain a semblance of seriousness and commitment, delay any embarrassing fallout and hope that we can establish enough partners elsewhere, if that appearance is upheld long enough to keep the programme viable longer term. Or if not then to move the fallout from its no doubt disguised discontinuance as far from the European exit as possible while no doubt in usual phony bluster, talk up its ‘replacement’ as a new improved cooperation with a US or European programme which in reality we would be a minor partnership. Time will tell, I do hope I’m wrong.
There are familiar elements here, such as TSR2, which became a political hot potato leading to its eventual demise. The internal dogma you describe is so true, no one wants to be ultimately responsible, so the onus of leadership is shared through what is termed, ‘Team players’ thus dissipating the blame for failure. One possible way to develop Tempest would be to pay a company to develop and present to more than one country, an off-the-shelf prototype package. The UK’s current jet trainer was created that way. Admittedly, the cost would be horrendous minus the Whitehall internal cost, which could be considerable?
Yes, the Government is borrowing from the Bank of England, which is wholly owned by… the Government. You call it borrowing, I call it printing money. Which is OK until inflation gets out of hand.
12Bn spent on this project is far from nothing. The cost cap is to keep it on schedule. Devil is in the detail.
£12b is nearly 3 weeks budget on the NHS and how many people did that cover compared to the BAEs workforce. ?? who offers better value. BAEs shareholders NOT
if u haven’t got anything relevant to add to the convo. then don’t even post anything at all.
or the other option is to not sack them at all even though they were bullying senior civil servant.
Janes had reported last week that £450 million had been cut from the Tempest program:
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/uk-cuts-gbp370-million-from-tempest-programme
That article is illuminating in that it says £9.46bn has already been spent on Tempest and the Government has capped the budget at £12.8bn for the first four years which is £486m less than previously allocated.
Thats a really shocking amount of initial spend as people were thinking only £2bn had been allocated and shows a far greater level of support for the programme than previously revealed.
More than the 8 T26s isn’t it?!
Love the humour in you post.
Thats so True, T26s will be defending this country before Tempest is more than a cardboard mock up.
As an aussie i believe you really need another form of spitfire / mosquito. Buy stealth off the shelf, cheaper.
Perhaps the grippen, from all reports a very, very good fighter, easy maintenance and quite cheap bang for your buck.
30 mill each.You blokes could have an awful lot of them for the money already outlayed on the tempest.
Quantity has a quality of its own.
There is a much bigger commitment to this project than what is bring publicly talked about. 12Bn is a big commitment for it’s current timeline.
I wonder how much Italy and Sweden have invested?
3 volvos and 12 Pizza’s
Ha 😆
Of course the programme needs more funding, it is on going.
The other point is that we have to be assured that industry is capable of carrying put what it says it is capable off .
Why are the usual commentators sneering.
Honestly, totally agree. It would be insane to just pile cash up at BAE’s door. Allocating funding based on deadlines and delivery is the only way to do it
you have got a point, but the mod really needs to get its act together, first jets operating from runways, next no sonars on the type 31, its depressing really. at this moment its all sounds like a joke. and its not funny.
Nothing is a joke. 12Bn is the cost cap of this project for it’s current timeframe. That is a big commitment. The design is next. And Tempest will be a family of systems. The manned aircraft is just part of it.
okay then tell one piece of good news u have heard about the tempest programme. all we know is 12bn £s were spent but on what? a paper Mache prototype and a few flash images?
Or do some research yourself, your a big boy, grow up a bit, and learn a few facts before adding school boy posts on this site. Google is a fantastic tool. Or buy the key Publishing magazine ‘Typhoon To Tempest ‘ for 114 pages of lovely Tempest developments and technology.
Like you Keyboard Warrior, you think any Tempest info is out there, its going to use the New Radar developed for the Typhoon, out of date kit. will have a Price tag on par with a F22. WORD COUNT JORNOS writing information a school boy could produce.
So you don’t know anything about Typhoon Mk2 radar then. It will be a special bit of kit, and anything but outdated.
Hi Robert, you may already know it but if not then Tempest radar will be more advanced than Typhoon Mk2.
https://www.defensenews.com/home/2021/01/15/secrets-of-tempests-ground-breaking-radar-revealed/
Thanks for the link mate, I’ll take a look. I new it wasn’t planned to use Mk2 for Tempest, but haven’t seen much detail on what It potentially will use. Mk2 will transform Typhoon capability though. 👍
Hi Robert, not sure if you’ve been down Whitehall recently but there’s also a massive banner advert for Tempest by above the escalators in Westminster that even the most sleepy-eyed Treasury wallah couldn’t miss on they way to work.
Don’t see that kind of advert in other parts of the country so the intended audience is fairly obvious, and I don’t think it’s the tourists! So clearly the Tempest consortium are taking the whole thing seriously and also understand the importance of winning all of Westminster over to supporting the project through to completion – whether that’s politicians, spads, cabinet, treasury or defence civil servants and old Tom Cobley and all…
I take all this as a good sign that Tempest has momentum behind it, but also that BAES recognise the threat from a change of the political landscape in future and therefore the need to publicise the programme and its projected benefits to the economy to win over the doubters.
Let’s hope this project is kept in check and doesn’t follow many other defence screw up projects
I followed the above link to the Annual Report on Major Projects 2020-21 and the annex has a huge list of all the projects (not just the military) the Government is funding.
Page 2:
Page 3:
Page 4:
Are any of them green? What do the actual colours all mean. I’m colour blind so actually couldn’t see any green. Is that right or just my wonky eyes and brain?
For example spearfish has a red dot. I thought that program has went ok and been delivered?
MS wrote:
“What do the actual colours all mean.”
The actual key:
Thanks for this farouk,
Not much if any green on any of the programmes. We have a low tax and in many cases a low wage economy and a big wish list, so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.
However, if the Treasury would include the tax return on UK expenditure in their spending assessments then perhaps they would be more willing to fund these projects properly. That might enable UK based businesses to then export stuff on the back of success, which would hopefully be reflected in higher tax returns and wages.
Penny pinching never works.
Cheers CR
Treasury has agreed to include economic benefits of domestic procurement in either review or command paper. Quinn confirmed in last Def questions in Parliament. At least for shipbuilding. Future FSS.
Low tax, LOL, that’s a good un
Thanks farouk. Lots of commitments beyond just shiny toys, Tanks, Ships and Planes.
£9.6Bn that is nearly another carrier +f-35’s for and couple of escorts!!!
Put it this way, it could have been used to speed up and enlarge Type 26 programme, and turn Type 31 into a half decent warship amongst many other things. Tempest is a concept, yes there is a lot of development going on, but at the end of the day, who is going to buy it? Just us? If that were the case, cost per airframe will result in just a couple of squadrons if we’re lucky. When it comes down to it, the majority of customers will be looking for a US 6th Gen aircraft, so why bother?
The majority of customers may not be given the opportunity to buy a US 6th Gen aircraft. Not everyone even gets access to F-35.
If the UK and Italy do nothing more than buy similar quantities of Tempest as they did Typhoon then that’s ~250+ aircraft over program life, similar to Rafale total sales numbers to date. Sweden might also be a customer, but if not then they will probably leverage avionics, radar and engine technologies for their own airframe, helping to share R&D costs. Japan may well license RR engine technologies derived from Tempest for their own fighter, again reducing R&D costs for the programme.
Why bother? If the Tempest programme only achieves half of what PWC estimate in their report (summary linked below) then it will still be a major contributor to the UK’s economy. More importantly we have an airframe where we control all aspects of its capabilities and costs vs our experience with F-35 to date.
https://www.baesystems.com/en-media/uploadFile/20210525112821/1434666034271.pdf
Gb Italy Sweden, Japan may end up developing tech with us that goes into their new plane.
Really to make it viable we need to bring france and Germany on for “son of euro fighter”
I think we would need a another choice of aircraft in case this doesn’t go a head .it’s either that or F35 will have to last even longer.
Its a never ending system. Perpetuates itself ad infinitum. In The Gan we had multi million pound Tonkas dropping stuff on tribesmen. There were a few calls from some “brass” to use Tucanos, there were plenty of airframes and it would have been cost effective. That aside I think we have reached saturation point with technology, it costs too much. At least the US is being honest about this in ordering more F15’s. Its a bloody merry go round, simply a farce.
By preparing for a war no one can fight without damage to national self interests (See 1914) instead of preparing for one we could fight and one we must be prepared fight here at home. Boys in the toy shop whose eyes are bigger than their pocket money. I simply cannot fathom defence spending on advanced projects we either cannot produce in a reasonable time frame or not afford to buy in numbers that are significant.
Absolutely spot on. If we don’t break the cycle of ever more expensive pieces of equipment in ever smaller numbers, our forces will become too small to have any meaningful capability. Saab Boeing seem to have achieved something with the T7A both in cutting development time and unit costs. Perhaps Sweden’s involvement with Tempest will bring that experience into the project.
Thats why the USAF set the bar lower for the B21 its seen how asking for the moon on sick impacts programs and results in reduced numbers or cancelled programs.
Comparing the T7 to a F35 program is moot. The T7 is purely a trainer with the potential for light ground attack and self defence. It is pretty basic aerodynamically and not that far removed from a F5/F20. It has absolutely no concern for a reduced observability or being able to communicate stealthily etc.
You can easily design a jet trainer type of aircraft in a year with today’s CFD, analytics and flight simulation. The hard part is the system integration if you want it to do anything complex. If you now include a reduced RCS requirement, it can affect the aircraft’s design and stability. So time has to be spent re-evaluating the design to mitigate the RCS reduction. Embedded RAM helps here as before they couldn’t be used in high stress areas like wing skins. 3D CAD has also helped massively with the fit and routing of cabling and piping, as well as the location of internal systems that don’t get in the way of other systems.
The rapid process used for the T7 can only be used so far. It is usually avionic systems that hold up the development and production. Engines although a major part of the aircraft can be replaced with other manufacturers products. A good example of system integration problems is Crowsnest. There were a few issues with the Merlin’s airframe when attaching the radar. But these have been solved now. The major holdup is that new management system is talking properly with the newish Searchwater 2000 back end. There’s nothing wrong with the radar per se, just how the information is displayed and used.
So if we consider Tempest. A lot of the systems will be integrated and tested on the ground. Then they’ll probably be fitted to an airliner where there’s space for data recording. The issue comes when trying to package it all together in a small airframe. For example when Typhoon was fitted with the early version of Captor. It continuously broke down, which was attributed to a lack of cooling. Through various modifications it was fixed so that it is pretty reliable these days, but it took a good number of years to sort out.
With Tempest being a supposed 6th gen aircraft, the technological goalposts are being stretched again. The F35 has shown what is possible with sensor fusion and data management. The Tempest will be more of the above, but with hopefully more open architecture. I can understand LMs reluctance to open the coding on the F35. As everything talks to each other, they have to be super careful, that nothing can corrupt any system, for example how the flight control system (FCS) interacts with the engine management system and vice versa. But now we hang a new weapon on the aircraft. It will be communicated through the weapons controller (WC), depending on the weapon’s complexity, it may continuously update it with go/no go health data. The WC will talk to the FCS telling it mass and CoG, so it can work out the aircraft’s dynamic trim. Then the weapon is used, requiring the FCS to alter the dynamic trim. A lot of this seems relatively simple, but if we now include the weapon to be internally carried you have to consider opening a door, extending a rack, will there be any G limitations with the door open. What happens if the weapon’s exhaust is ingested by the engine etc.
These all take time research and evaluate. It took LM less than 4 years to design and produce the X35, but nearly 10 years to get the first proper production F35 ready. It still isn’t fully operationally ready as the Block upgrades prove. I am hoping that with Tempest there is less red tape. US aircraft manufacturers in particular are really inflexible when it comes to their product. With Typhoon we always had the problem of getting each partner Nation to agree on a modification, even it was just for a drawing update with a new part number. I am hoping that Tempest removes a lot of the red tape that hampers Typhoon thereby speeding up design and build process.
Hi Daveyb, is this potentially an area where Saab’s experience with the Gripen could be informative? Specifically the way in which the FCS coding is kept separate from the sensor and weapons code, so an avionics or weapons upgrade/addition doesn’t result in a lengthy flight safety re-certification.
Saab also use a lot of UK products in Gripen so no doubt have a good working relationship with Tempest project participants already which is good.
I am ever hopeful.
It is the active electronic countermeasure that the Gripen E/F currently uses that would also be a major benefit for the Tempest program.
Think it was Yamamoto who said the Japanese would never invade the US, “there is a gun behind every blade of grass”. Likewise Switzerland with armed citizens. I agree with you, over complex and over expensive. Because “the complex” exists to make profit, and most politicians are stupid, as for “brass”? There again, blinded by science. For home defence, militia is cheap. Air defence, we have adequate aircraft in Typhoon and F35. Ships just seem to be ego trips for a few who binge out on Nelsons reputation ( this site shows that ) Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, all show a “way” forward for defence. Sadly we are Uncle Sam’s poodle and procurement reflects this. We have to stop behaving as if we matter and spend money wisely. I get the feeling a new government will cut these expensive programmes with glee.
Define home defence? As any force without the capability and ability to choose the ground, time and location, for offensive actions will lose every single time. A genuine question, how do you define and equip for home defence? Your thoughts would be interesting, thanks.
Home defence is usually a shotgun or an AR-15. Or maybe a 9mm.
Not entirely convinced by your logic Karl, the Europeans went through Africa like an exocet because they had guns against spears. Surely the Africans were trying to defend their homes.
I’m not saying that the UK does it all right (we know it doesn’t) but we do need to have skin in the game if we want to have our own defence industry and on the back of that sell lots of stuff to make money.
Broadly I agree, partly because I sense we are on the cusp of an entirely new era. A.I. is here. I rather thought Poseidon would be replaced by drones; not Taranis but the much more to me significant Mantis. I think the ‘human in the loop’ will replace the one in the bunk bed. In defence terms the British have lost a sense of their historic past and the 20th century’s wars fought to the finish. We excel in small elite forces used ‘just in time’ and diplomacy, the ability to rally friends and compromise; not very stirring or exciting but it served us well.
“Stop thinking we matter?” What kind of rubbish is this? I usually just ask questions rather than get into arguments on here but what kind of rubbish is this. Like it or not unless u want a world ruled by Russia and China where you won’t be free to post online then we are helping usa police the world, yes we make mistakes but it’s better than alternative, at least we try unlike most of Europe that like a frog would sit in pot of water gradually getting hotter until too late.
Doing CAS with platform like that is great for afghans but for country that next week could be fighting a peer conflict, we don’t have the cash for a high/low mix in the RAF so the uav swill have to do, other platforms need to be able to fly in peer war
Karl wrote:
The Afghans released a video the otherday of just that:
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1416372538293329921?s=20
seems like they dropped 2 thousand pounders on the first seen
or i could be wrong. either ways seems a bit heavy from a light attack aircraft.
Hilarious.
Tucanos no chance, wouldn’t have had the time on station, slow reaction and response and limited ordnance depending on location AGL. It’s quite interesting that there were many calls for fast air, to be replace by cheaper options, but might I add, not from the blokes who had to use them for CAS. And tech, yes it’s increasing and improving so fast, that it’s certainly hard, and expensive to keep up, but if your not with the latest tech/assets etc, and unless you can have the numbers and depth the US does, your not really on the game and are simply wasting the money you have. Cheers.
The need is there, and has been highlighted in Iraq/afgan, the UK just doesn’t have anywhere near enough aircrafts to provide CAS when needed. The troops therefore had to rely heavily on the US. Using low cost planes is far from ideal, but it’s a trade off /risk assessment, which is better to risk, a single pilot or a large number of ground troops due to no available CAS.
It may be cheaper but i always think of the Jordanian pilot being burned alive in a cage by ISIS. Spend the money and keep our pilots safe.
Agreed in regard to enough airframes for a decent level of CAS, and this will not likley change in the near future. However I do think, from experience, that a prop airframe for CAS, in the Afghan situation would not have been the best option. Yes cheaper, less logistic chain etc but the effect for the end user will be the issue. Most of my available assets were US, but the cloggies, French and RAF were also available most times.
The problem was whatever asset I would have allocated, if a TIC went of elswhere, then I would (possibly) lose that asset and on occasion not be replaced. However the issue with a light turbo prop is both range and load of ordnance available, and speed of response. If I lost an asset, then it could be replaced, fast, from elsewhere in theatre. Plus, I have more options of ordnance, to include low and fast gun run, or fly by, where with a Tucano (for example) that risk is greater for the airframe. Like you said, its all about risk, and effect, and in my opinion (and most others) a light turbo prop was not a good idea at that time. Things change and it may be decided in the future we may need one, but greater minds than mine will decide that, cheers.
For the Afghanis, it probably is the right aircraft. There’s a few other light close air support aircraft on the market, like the Pucara. But all the light CAS aircraft have a similar range and performance. The next step up would be jet trainer aircraft that has a decent light attack option, like the Hawk or M346. The issue here is that they are a big step up in complexity and maintenance compared to a Tucano. Something the Afghanis even with contractor help will struggle with. Mind you the ways things are going, there won’t be any contractors mad enough to work out there.
The problem with close air support is that the other side gets a vote. If they are technically savy and have a MANPAD, life can be difficult for a CAS pilot. This means they either require very good DAS or they attack from a stand-off distance away from the threat. Which has implications on getting a good designation or eyes on the target.
As you say it is down to risk. If the issue is counter insurgency, asymmetric warfare in a failing country or peer vs peer. Each have their own peculiar risks and may need their own type of aircraft to provide support.
Medium to high flying bomb trucks would work well where there’s next to no SAM threat, but would be easy meat in a peer conflict. Thereby a balanced response is called for. The Reaper/Protector will be ok for use in places like Afghan or Mali if used in quantities. They have the same issue of a slow top speed, therefore if the aren’t on station their response time is not great. Using Typhoon and F35 in places like Mali is overkill. They have great response time but crap on station times if not aerial refuelled. If the threat was against a peer, you would hopefully have lots of artillery support on hand anyway.
If we had the funding, I think there is a case for a dedicated “strategic” bomber that has a really long set of legs that can also be used for the CAS role, where its safe to do so. With a high subsonic cruising speed and operating altitude it could get where its needed pretty quickly. But also with a large payload that doesn’t need topping up every half hour. I wonder if the USAF are selling off any B1s soon?
CAS or wandering marauders sometimes they are unable or just gung-ho to distinguish Friendlies as was the case OP Granby 1991 Kuwait even with British markings .That’s why we Should be able to conduct our own Close Air Support and not constantly rely on our Allies it pains Me to think we’re forever being psychic up with promises from whichever Party is in power and then the Rug is pulled away with some Lame excuse. And the Boots on the ground or the guys in the Air come off second best .And that’s all I’m saying on the matter
Wandering marauder? One on let me assure you CAS has improved somewhat from then but it’s also a very complicated and technical aspect of OS and mistakes happen, by every country conducting it, it did in Afghanistan and it still will in other areas of conflict.
The best asset I used for close air support was the B52. Lots of time on station, with a “never ending” payload. The Apache was great, but was limited by time on station. For fast air you couldn’t beat the A10. It had a decent payload, a decent time on station. oh it also had a gun!
The USAF, have been talking about integrating SDB on the B52, which would be fantastic for a JTAC, as not everything needs a 500 pounder.
Spot on, B52 on station for what could seem ages, and a number of options offered in payload. Apaches, mmmm not a great fan, unless already there, could be quite a while to get overhead, however my best asset, was the 3 x 105mms back at the FOB, with the 81mms……have to give the FOO and the MFC some credit lol. The “re-wired” and close nit FST was the best thing to come out of Afghan in regard to OS thats for sure, however always, always busy!!!!! Cheers mate.
Yes, it was bonkers having separate bods to doing pretty much the same task.
A b52 syle plane is a no go for the UK, way too expensive. We kinda need to think out of the box and start realising that a ground support aircraft does not also need to be able to do air-to-air. There was talk a while back about making a gunship version of the A400m, maybe that is an option for medium range stand off attacks without having to spend a futune maintaining a new expensive fighter/bomber.
I don’t know what happened to the targetting pods from the harriers/tornadoes but that is a good start if they can be reused at very little cost.
I agree a cheaper option would be to use an A400 in much the same role as a USMC C130 Harvest Hawk. However, it removes at least one aircraft from doing it proper job of being a transport. If we are getting rid of the Hercs’, then the A400 will have to take up the slack. Do we have enough A400s to spare?
In a few years time the USAF will be pensioning off the B1s, perhaps we could put a word in?
And what has the RAF got in the box for CAS that has the ability to remain on station have an adequate payload it’s own defensive capability (20mmAden cannon the Late great Harrier) retired before its time
That’s why we all use allies, we use each others strengths to mitigate each others weakness.
A Tucano would not have had the range, endurance and payload to be affective over vast area’s like Afghan and Syria. Plus the don’t have air to air refueling capability. A complete non starter. CAS is very complex. You definitely want to be in a Typhoon or F15E
Really you want an Warhog. My thinking is modern CAS relies more on guided missiles, which can be fired from high altitudes/distance, well out of range of a lot of manpad / RPG that cause problems for Apache, and anything more advanced is going to cause serious issues to typhoons anyway.
Combine that with relative cheapness of defensive measures, and I wonder if it could work in counter insurgency warfare. Clearly going in for a gun run is a non-starter, as you would need the armor of a A10, but maybe a missile truck.
Mate assets could be over 10k AGL dropping paveways, its not all about rockets or guided missiles as any sort of missile, for CAS will have a too small a warhead to be effective. The best rockets we utilised were the RA GMLRS from Bastion. CAS is complicated and the simple expectation of a missile or rocket to be effective does not take into account the numbers and types of targets. In fact a “dumb” inert training bomb, can be used, and was used, to reduce any sort of collateral damage, due simply to the kinetic energy imparted.
Enhanced Paveway 4 and Brimstone 2 are perfect for CAS. Extremely accurate, and low collateral when you need it.
Spot on mate…..
Tempest isn’t to replace F35. It would replace Typhoon. And will be a number of systems, not just a single manned fast jet. That is only part of the capability.
Realistically, only the USA can afford a full blown 6 Gen aircraft by mid 2030’s!
We may need to settle on a 5.5 Gen aircraft.
Get other countries involved or all gunna buying American
Just cancel Tempest and buy the US jet off the shelf. Its a sad fact that cost per airframe will be lower due to a bigger buyers market, and it’ll be better than Tempest.
When would Meteor, Spear Cap 3 and FC/ASW be supported, or any future new weapons? Its taking long enough to get the first two supported on F-35 and we’re a Tier 1 partner. Or maybe we just buy US weapons too from here on out, even if not as capable as our own? What about operating costs?
You can count on one hand the number of companies WW that can build state of the art jet engines, Rolls Royce is one of those. BTW that’s only three countries, USA, UK and France. If we cancel Tempest then that’s RR out of that business, at least in the UK.
Better in what way? Tempest from the outset has been focused on reducing costs so the RAF can at least maintain if not increase airframes.
do you really want to be out done by the French? if yes then. What wrong with you?
I’d say retain Typhoon and continuously upgrade and replace with newer, upgraded airframe, as the USAF has done with the F-15EX.
Even if we still go ahead with Tempest it’ll likely be in fewer numbers than the Typhoons they’re supposed to replace.
Anyone know what the chances are of Japanese involvement with Tempest ?
From reading what has been published and what they’re not saying. I don’t think Japan will be an active part of team tempest. However, I do believe there will be a lot of technology sharing between the projects. Even though Japan has been in bed with the US for quite a while. They have become more frustrated with the US constantly blocking purchases or technology, the F22 for example. This is one of the reasons why they are going it alone. It’s not like they are starting from scratch.
Thanks. Nothing positive seems to be coming from Italy and Sweden impression seems to be that they just see it as chance to get £ from HMG. Maybe we’ll hear something when CSG21 gets to Japan.
What would you expect to hear from Italy though?
Sweden may want their own airframe design but they are likely to leverage avionics, radar and engine technology if they don’t use the same airframe. For example they might license build the same engine but use in a single engine fighter.
I agree. For Sweden in particular, the Tempest would be a complete operational concept change. The model that BAe have produced is not a STOL aircraft. So it wouldn’t meet the Swedes requirements of operating from short roads etc. The likelihood is that Tempest will spawn a couple of aircraft, a heavyweight and lightweight. These would be direct replacements for Typhoon and Gripen, thereby meeting each Country’s requirements. The aircraft will share manufacturing processes, avionics, engines etc.
However, the main issue I have with this method is costs. Two airframes = higher costs, therefore less affordable airframes. Will we be able to afford a 1 for 1 Typhoon replacement?
I haven’t seen a breakdown on how much of a modern aircraft comprises the airframe cost versus the cost of what goes in it and on it. Looking at the F-35 program it seems its taken many more years developing the systems, especially software, than the airframe and we’re not done on those software costs yet. Its sobering to reflect that the F-35 first flew late 2006 and we probably won’t have Block 4 done until 2026, two decades later.
If we can keep to the Tempest programme intent of a fast development cycle, automated manufacturing and use of modern manufacturing techniques, such as additive manufacturing, all to reduce costs, then it may be possible to significantly reduce the airframe cost while leveraging the combined volumes of two aircraft for the rest.
To this day I still believe the two interviews of BAES and the RAF at the 2018 public launch provide some of the best guidance on the critical requirements for Tempest, with both stressing the importance of low cost.
First BAES:- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogAtFy3q3xk
Second the RAF :- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utanRbCOfI8
Which is what you said. Sorry sometimes reading all the comments is like working my way through a book.
The politicians think they can do this on the cheap because if it fails to produce an operational aircraft they can always buy whatever the Americans develop for their 6th gen fighter which in all honesty will be a more advanced jet given all the decades of experience they have in making/operating stealth fighters and bombers.
Have there cut from Tempest to help the Army’s Ajax problems .🙄
The RAF would be extremely unchuffed about that. :wpds_shock: I may be wrong but I think Ajax is beyond the help of man. It’s just awaiting a decent burial.
Just like the Warrior upgrade programme or the NIMROD farce, coward politicians and incompetent civil servants would rather leave the tax payer on the hook for billions rather than accept responsibility and deal with the consequences.
Yep. Add the people in uniforms and your spot on. The question is will it ever change ? I’m normally optimistic but in this case no.
Ajax is a fixed price contract that the UK has already withheld payments on. The main issue for the UK is the delay in rolling out the platform, i.e. operational impact. If that wasn’t an issue then the UK could metaphorically just sit back and tell GDLS to fix it or return the payments. The issue also doesn’t reflect well for the GDLS brand for WW sales so issues will be fixed.
No, it was projected that the Concept phase would initially cost nearly £2Bn, but it is expected to cost about £1.6Bn when it ends later this year. The other hard engineering phases in future years could cost a lot more, from other funding steams, yet to be approved by MoD.
The Main gate go ahead, after concept phase has ended, will probably need Cabinet approval most likely next year in the Assessment Phase.
Duck me I nearly fell of the sofa and dropped my coffee. I really hope the money has been spent well. What have they got so far? Obviously no actual aircraft but maybe designs, systems, manufacturing structures etc? I thought it was just a study into what could be achieved. A kind of de risking exercise
I think it includes the work on the RAF’s UAV’s as well.
See my post below.
Cheers CR
Doesnt mean the money has been spent elsewhere, the money simply may not exist!
Quote:
“A phase that will complete an Alternative System Review of the Future Combat Air System including the Core Platform, as well as establishing the international partnerships.”
This seems to suggest that the “Core Platform” is only part of the investment so I assume that the £9.5b civers all the work on the UAV’s as well.
If this is the case then there has been a lot of work carried across a broad range of investments.
From other articles the RN and RAF UAV programmes are separate so this money will not include the navy’s efforts to provide a UAV capability for the carriers. Hopefully, the navy’s programme is benfiting from technology already paid for…
Cheers CR
When it was first announced I was extremely sceptical , this announcement vindicates my initial opinion.
Purely a seeing to be doing exercise, nothing more.
My impression as well.
12bn is not a seeing to be doing something exercise.
Spending £12Billion means nothing. What did they get for that money ?
A huge amount of research and development. This is for the Concept and,Development phase. And12Bn is small change really. Typhoon development was over 40Bn. Tempest is a number of systems under the banner of the FCAS (Future Combat Air System). And Tempest will be much more than us trying to build our own F22 on steroids. Some of that 12Bn might have gone in the loyal wingman project’s, which Tempest will be central too. The manned fighter is just one part of the overall FCAS. The design phase will be next. So I’d take the looks of the plastic mockup with a pinch of salt.
Rolls Royce have been working on the new engine technology since 2014 as one example. Leonardo have already done significant work on the radar which is a generation beyond the system the UK will fit to upgrade Typhoon as another.
It’s not looking hugely positive. As a casual, outside observer going on the publicly available information I do wonder about this project. Developing a new stealth fighter is expensive. Who is going to buy Tempest? Saudi Arabia? Possibly. Italy? Sweden is developing their own stealth aircraft.
Instead of lasers, and fancy PowerPoint whatnot perhaps it should be less ambitious, focus on low running costs that the RAF can afford to operate, more along the lines of what the Swedish have done with Gripen?
I read somewhere online that the European FCAS will be based on the Rafale, basically a stealth Rafale (although that might be a prototype version). Of course I want the home team to knock this one out of the park and surprise me with something fantastic, but I do have my doubts. It has all the hallmarks of a corporate PowerPoint promise.
We seem to have ceded the drone market, a market that’s likely to grow significantly in the future. If this project doesn’t keep its feet on the ground, and its eye on getting the basics right, it could end up being an expensive industrial subsidy. I hope I’m wrong.
Without focusing too much on Tempest I have always been sceptical that the European Aerospace Industry could realistically support Two different 6th gen Programmes.
To be brutally honest the FCAS is playing catch up with the F35, let alone Tempest! France, Germany and Spain have not worked on or operated a 5th generation aircraft. Neither the Rafale or Typhoon have anywhere near the data collection or sensor fusion that the F35 has. I do know that Germany has a lead over France in regards to radar absorbent materials. But even they are a ways behind what BAe have been producing let alone Lockheed Martin’s wide band embedded RAM. It’s the same with the engine. No doubt FCAS will use a development of the Snecma M88 which is comparable to the EJ200. But Safran who make the M88 have yet to be involved in future engine concepts that incorporate variable cycling, unlike Rolls Royce. Let alone what Reaction Engines may bring to the Tempest project.
The engine will hamstring the FCAS if its based on the conventional M88. The Tempest is likely getting an evolved EJ200, but using some of the concepts of the F136 as well as further variable cycling. The tie up between Rolls Royce and Reaction Engines has been strong for the past 5 years. Their first pre-cooler used a RR Avon as a test mule. Which was shown to significantly increase its performance, a EJ200 would respond no differently.
I would say its the same with the radar. The Rafale’s RBE2 AA is an ok radar, but it’s not in the same league as the Captor-E 2+ or the APG-81. Even though Indra and Hensoldt have been involved with the Captor-E, it has been Leonardo leading the way especially with regards to signal processing.
Where technology is going with the 6th gen concept, I believe the FCAS will be a poor cousin compared to the Tempest. This program has brought the best technologically advanced European companies together, BAe, Saab, Leonardo and Rolls Royce to name but a few. There is a greater chance that these companies being together will produce an outstanding 6th gen aircraft.
You’re right. Undoubtedly, there’s a lot of impressive technology and talent behind the wider Tempest project. I just hope that luck, economics, and politics are on their side.
Here will go all talk and little money and investment from a Tory government that has made cuts and cuts to armed forces over the years reduction in men SHIPS AIRCRAFT and lack of new hard wear so it we it not enter service until 2050 i bet hopefully a change government could help
Thqt comment sounds like a statement from a student union rag.
Well said Robert probably posted from the people’s Republic of Islington
😄👍
Bravo.
It could help, but most probably will not. Unless the new government provides the MoD with a more generous settlement, which is unlikely, things will either stay the same or get worse. Easy to talk up defence when in opposition, actually doing it in office is a different story.
I wish Sir Keir Starmer would raise defence more often – the Cons are wide open with their misleading evidence to Parliament and downright sophistry on matters related to defence not to forget their manifesto commitments.
Hmm go luck with that. Labour used to be a decent backer of defence but can’t see it these days. I think Tempest will go the the way of TSR 2 not due to Keir, he seems more of pragmatic politician, but due pressure from within the party.
Major high value job losses in sensitive regions if that happens, not sure any political party will want to own that. Of all the defence industries to be in for the UK, aerospace is definitely it, where it dominates our defence exports. WW leads in avionics, radar, and defense aids from Leonardo. WW leading weapons from MBDA UK. A very exclusive club for state of the art jet engines in RR’s case.
Its ironic how many suggest exiting Tempest given the hysteria on this site about the need to build our own military vehicles when every man and his dog are building them nowadays.
Even shipbuilding is sketchy with a future that looks increasingly like a service industry selling design and management skills for foreign build. The industry has a chance but it has to embrace and be successful in commercial business. It cannot rely solely on government contracts.
I’m not suggesting exiting Tempest just that security of the project is not guaranteed .Their are some politicians who don’t see this as we do have complete contempt for defense and for example think Green jobs could replace complex military investments. We were a world leader in aircraft design and manufacture now fast just production relies on Tempest alone. And 100% agree military investment should be a catalyst to create commercial opportunities not the only way industry can survive.
All governments have done the same, all are total shite when it comes to defence.
True. However, Labour say ‘we are the party of defence’ do they?
And, as I’ve written John Hutton SoS Defence, went against the Leadership to defend the nuclear boats – not many do that.
Hutton is Labour Shadow, not SofS Defence. He is a top bloke. He understands Defence even without a background in it.
Although in 79 St Margaret did give us including Myself a Payrise and then lord of the undead John knott swung the Axe on defence whilst keeping those Lovely looking Type 21s which were later held together with what looked lengths of railway track to strengthen their superstructure .Again cost cutting whilst in the building stage lead to failures when deployed
Strange answer, not really relevant to my post but each to their own I suppose.
I do apologise Airborne the thread is slightly misleading as I was a surface skimmer (Navy ) what I was trying to put across was that successive Government give with One hand and take away with a bloody Dumper truck with the other ie you can have a payrise but the equipment you have will have to do in all eventualities One example Action working dress number 8s were cotton flame resistant a tad to expensive MODs solution Nylon Shirts and trousers alright for those behind a desk in Whiehall Not for us During OP Corporate FALKLANDS CAMPAIGN How many Lads carry the scars of molten Nylon burns due to Fecking cost cutting .Then 1983 we were re equipped with Cotton fire retardant AWDress The Money is always there but the bookkeepers at the treasury don’t like signing off the cheques
Correct mate, whatever funding you think your getting for “new” has generally been taken from other necessary, but “kicked the can down the road” projects. Nothing in this world for free, and most certainly not in the defence budget world.
Amen and thanks Airborne
So the government has put more money into defence despite a huge economy damaging pandemic and you make a stupid comment like that?
What was the alternative, Corbyn? Ah yes that bloke who would have pretty much disbanded all defence spending to fund his loony tunes fantasy spending plan he had.
HMG has made a great fanfare of putting more money into defence. But they are at the same time cutting the army establishment by 12,500 troops and the RAF by 60-70 aircraft/pilots/maintenance crews. Guess where the ‘extra’ money is coming from!
Boris is taking with one hand and giving some of it back with the other, a typically cynical PR wheeze designed to fool the public and defence sector alike. Can’t believe that some on here gave fallen for it.
The savings on 12,500 troops pay, allowances, feeding, barracks, equipment, vehicles, training etc over the next decade will vastly outweigh Boris’ supposed new money.
Why? Are a new political party about to launch? Not aware of any opposition parties that have a strong defence mandate.
1997 – 2010 11 FJ squadrons lost.
2010 – 2021 3 FJ squadrons lost. ( 6 in real terms )
1997 – 2010 12 Escorts lost.
2010 – 2021 4 Esc0rts lost.
So many conveniently forget, were too young to remember, or choose to ignore for PP purposes those years.
The only reason the army manpower was not cut 97 – 2010 was Iraq and Afghanistan.
All parties have been bad on defence. Just to add some balance.
Yeah, Labour chopped away more discreetly after the 1998 review. But to there credit, they did launch the carrier project.
Well the papers are saying Ajax is going to be binned, tempest being binned will not surprise me at all ,but it’s very much needed ,I will pray to the gods of common sense.
For those interested in some very interesting Tempest news. Key Publishing has released a special magazine titled ‘ Typhoon To Tempest’. 114 pages worth. Makes very interesting reading. And an insight into some fascinating technology. The design gateway go-ahead, is due to be announced very soon.
Your an optimist ! I’m impressed but you may be on the wrong page.
Think I’m on the wrong site 😄
Right site wrong page 😁
This report and others like it from the NAO are pretty hard to follow,often because there isn’t full disclosure of the underlying data. I think Janes may have misunderstood and seen a revised estimate of future project costs as an actual cut. Nor is the £9+b they mention the cost over the next four years.
So far £2b has been committed up to 2024. It isn’t clear why that is seen as inadequate. Exactly what we will get for that isn’t wholly clear either. But if that money doesn’t even get us to a flying prototype, then there will never be enough funding to complete the project to production.
Expanding the F35 fleet isn’t a cheap option either: the 10 year purchase and support costs of just the 48 is@£9b.
The more immediate problem that will have to be addressed is that even if the Tempest programme delivers on time, the aircraft won’t be in service before the late 2030s. Can our current 100+ fleet of Typhoons last that long or is a top up order inevitable?
Tend to agree ref Janes, it seems to have been a bit of a sensationalist observation this early in the programme. Perhaps the following is worth also including in the discussion –
“The projects Baseline Whole Life Cost is £9467.00m. This is primarily due to the following factors: This is baseline funding allocated to the Programme as of 31 March 2021. It is not the anticipated Whole Life Costs of the Programme which is £72b”
I doubt the £9.5b comes close to all the R&D costs. It would be a bargain if it did since its not that much more than the £6-7b for just the UK’s share of Eurofighter R&D costs alone which were in then pounds 1.5-2 decades ago. Clearly the Whole Life Costs include purchase and operating costs for the RAF’s fleet but it seems likely there will be a significant R&D component in that £72b, even though there is a major focus on minimising costs by both the RAF and BAES.
We’ve both read the report and the Janes article yet still struggle to grasp what the numbers mean. What exactly is the Project baseline whole life cost? And how can any total be given for anticipated whole life costs when we have no idea how many units might be bought and operated? Why not provide a figure for development up to manufacturing start up.
I agree that if £9.5b is a large part of the R&D cost, it compares favourably with Typhoon. But it is known that the multi national nature of Typhoon caused long delays and a lot of additional cost.
There is undoubtedly at least one model for the £72b and perhaps several based on different assumptions for R&D, operating costs and unit numbers, so it seems unlikely any government would want to provide any breakdown on that at this stage.
For example one dynamic emphasised for Tempest is a fast, lower cost development cycle, another is low operating costs. If both those parameters deliver then the RAF gets a larger fleet. The higher those costs go the fewer aircraft the RAF get.
The observation on Typhoon was to demonstrate that the current costs are clearly affordable. Especially in the context of heightened world tensions versus the 1990’s and early 2000’s.
Agree completely. There is isn’t a lot of value in these reports at the early stages of a project. This one has already provoked undeserved criticism on this site.
Not unusual TBF.
Quelle Surprise.
Tempest will never happen…
There is always money: the money will be found. There is no shortage of money: there is a shortage of excellence and innovation and original thought however.
Face facts, there was never a snowball in hells chance of this working out well with the UK government and MOD pulling the strings. Anything they touch is doomed.
No surprise there then.
Can the west really carry on like this, on programmes that last so long in development and swallow up more and more money only to be so expensive you can only afford a few.
Would constant developments of typhoon be better? Much like how a car is updated every few years or does the initial design eventually make it obsolete?
How do the Chinese develop and bring into service their equipment so much quicker then the west
They hardly have any development costs they steal that bit from the US.
There’s only so much that the aircraft can be modified, before it becomes obsolete, regardless of what up to date systems are added. The main issue is that other countries are developing low observable aircraft along with active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. The Captor-E 2+ version is likely to stay ahead of the game. But the Typhoon’s RCS is not being addressed. Therefore, the range at which it will be detected will be getting longer and longer. You could modify the aircraft to reduce its RCS, but it still won’t be as good as an aircraft that was designed with a reduced RCS to begin with.
Better to bite the bullet now, in designing a Typhoon replacement, when it still has some life in it. Rather than playing catch-up when its obsolete!
UK undeinvesting in its future? Who’d have thought it!
Maybe it’s time to seek a joint venture or with a US company or merge with the European FCAS on this project? Isn’t there already a UK 6 gen technology share with Japan’s next gen aircraft too? Hope to god this Tempest program all doesn’t go into fresh air. It just can’t! There must be options on the way ahead? Britain should back itself, c’mon Mr Defence Minister!
A recent report issued after a speech by Gen. Nick Carter suggested that by 2030 a typical RAF strike formation could be two Typhoons, eight Mosquito’s and up to one hundred Alvino swarming drones.So the Tempest is for ?
I know this is a little simplistic but the UK really has only three conventional war roles, or could have if we stopped trying to do everything without the budget to match
The Royal Navy, properly equipped with a full complement of F35’s for both carriers along with sufficient “working” escorts gives us global reach and the ability to connect and train with our overseas allies. Containing the Russians in the North Atlantic is the other main role.
The Royal Air Force can ,with modern tech. , provide a serious strike capability but it’s main role surely should, perhaps with the Army, be the defence of the UK and the North Atlantic. More Posedons ? A missile shield should be high on the agenda.
The army needs to move into the modern world and stop trying to fight yesterdays wars. Where are we seriously suggesting we use a hotch potch brigade of questionable armour that takes three months to deploy. Far better to spend the money on giving our special forces ..Marines, Paras, Rangers the best equipment that money can buy so that they can intervene in days rather than months.
Problem is that the UK can be materially adversely affected by events half way round the world.
Long range multi-role aircraft, which is probably what Tempest will be, might support combat missions directly to the Baltics or the High North without needing re-fueling from vulnerable tankers.
Similarly long range multi-role aircraft might more rapidly deploy to the SE Asia, requiring fewer tanking assets and/or stops and have the range to be effective there once they do so.
Lets not forget that the RAF will be 20% manned aircraft and 80% drones so not real need for more than a couple squadrons of any Typhoon replacement. Too much high tech in a single platform, and when it’s grounded? you have nothing to give a big bang. Stealth, the RN killed that one in the first Gulf War and is really wasted cash, low and fast still the way forward. One of the best CAS in Vietnam was the A1 slow yes but carried a good load and stayed there for a long time and the A10 does that today. Cheap aircraft like Jag and Harrier gave you capacity and numbers to keep the opposition in check. Many Airforces around have greater numbers and options for the what comes up. The RAF (MOD) waste so much cash (Nimrod twice for example) it’s a crime and they need to sort that first. Look at Sentinal, got it for UOR then invested no cash in it and now gone after a few years service when it could have been around for many more. Only Nation I have time for for Defence is Auz at least although small they have got real state of the art and can give any opposition a bloody nose. Let industry come up with viable options we can get in numbers needed and for export too. You do not need a Super Computer to crack a nut!
Er! How many Tonkas did we lose in GW1 due to low flying making them vunerable?
8 aircraft from 2,500 sorties. 3 of these were in training sorties.
Covert a couple of C130s into our own version of the highly capable long time on station Spectre Gunship with an array of 30mms and 20mms taken from the Hunts and other surface platforms that are surplus to requirement
What a surprise next step de scoping and prolongation of the definition and development phase! With cancellation following after the next Election in 2 to 3 years. All this talk about drones and 6 th generation aircraft is just pie in the sky. When will we learn that it take a huge amount of treasure, we don’t want to find, to get a brand new design, systems and engines out of the definition stages and into development production and into service.
Same old same old. Now wait for some faceless wonder spokesperson from MOD to spin a Webb of deceit and the tried and tested smoke and mirrors. Nothing changes.
Seems that most “commentators” here wish Tempest to be dead and buried. I can’t help but wonder as to their motives.
The project is flagged as amber/red because all programs at this stage i.e before business case approval, are so scored because until the business case is approved, no guarantee of the projects completion can be made.
1,65 billion was authorised to be spent in the projects first 4 years. That has been reduced to 1.2 billion. The report says “..it is not envisaged that this reduction will have significant impact on meeting the critical milestones for (this) phase..”.
So the sky isn’t falling and the project is on schedule for its business case review. Which is the only useful fact coming out of this report.
No that that will deter the putinbots and lefty loonies from spreading their poison here.
Quite.
Well said Ron. 👍
WAKE UP AND TAKE A SNIFF, BAEs is in the Bussiness of BULLSHITE, has been for Years.
if you want to sell a product then you develop and produce it, as Ex BAEs out of Dunsfold.
WE KILLED THE HARRIER, over an argument over MRA4.
FAT CATS GETTING RITCHER, they worked out many years ago they make more money selling Airfields for Housing.
Until there are enough partners on board to make production costs acceptable, the mock-up stands a better chance of flying.
Throwing another £54m @ France on top of the current £28m to stop people leaving beaches.
Rather than just load them up and send them back to THERE SHITEHOLES they have created.
UNTIL THIS COUNTRY FINDS ITS BACKBONE, its all shite and what everyone can get for FREE.
Wow, that’s some strong statements there. I would say a person who has financed a trip half way round the world through situations we can’t even imagine has to be a pretty good hard working person. When they arrive put them through college to get there English and other skills up to scratch. Then give them options to train in sectors we are lacking people in.
You would find the majority would be m so happy and grab the opportunity with both hands. The dead beats of there society are still in there own country moaning how rubbish life is.
Every single thing you said is wrong, on so many levels. 🤦♂️
That’s a huge disappointment, though hardly surprising!
So more than likely 10 years late and in far fewer numbers than we need – lucky to get 60-80 of them.
I wonder, and someone with more knowledge and insight feel free to correct me, but I wonder whether we should emulate the US Air Force and purchasing a massively updated Gen 4 airframe – they did it with F-15EX, we could do so with Typhoon:
I don’t know how feasible this would be, but surely would have to be a better and cheaper way of running our air power than continuously going for the gold standard but ending up with so few units as to be effective.
That should be “so few units as to be ineffective,” sorry.
But I think if we retained Typhoon in significant numbers of 120 or so, slowly replacing the oldest with newer airframes and continuously upgrading them, in addition to 80-90 Tempest and then putting the 80-odd F-35s we end up with into the Navy, this could give us a decent-sized combined RAF/FAA force.
The number of aircraft required hasn’t even been decided yet, let alone announced. Because Tempest will be a family of systems and capabilities. The manned fighter, is just a part of it. If we even get a manned fighter.
Until we get to production I will remain positive. Every program has its wobble points. The , f35, merlin, typhoon all had moments when things looked and were reported to be bad.
Folks said then scrap it and update tornado and phantoms instead. Could u imagine if we had done this!
Typhoon needs replaced in the timeframe tempest is set to. So let get the best we can get working on creating what we need. There is no plan b so far
You won’t be the only optimist. This program has barely begun and it’s written off by most on one media report.
There’s a huge amount of negativity in general in “UK defence commentary” or whatever you want to call the wider cyberspace.
Twitter is especially bad for it, with people positively licking their lips over bad news stories and rubbishing projects.
The thing with the f-15ex is it’s development was mostly paid for by Middle East countries. It’s not the Americans only jet in service. So far it appears it will be used for homeland defence only replacing worn out f15s. What the future hold is anyone’s guess.
I’m not adverse to keeping the typhoon line open by purchasing 6-10 jets a year. And upgrading over the lifetime. This would then feed into tempest etc. It has to be affordable and I don’t know if that’s possible without some research on my part.
Replace the older ones with new ones over the 2023-2033 period. Gets u 60-100 new typhoons
The F15EX is really a politically appointed aircraft, as to what the USAF actually wanted. Boeing were on the ropes after the 737 problems and the continual issues with the KC46 had pushed them into the red. Congress were looking for a lifeline to prevent Boeing from going under. They decided to give the USAF new F15s to replace the aging ones, and help their constituents as well There was no lobbying from the USAF for new F15s. Which is no different to what Gordon Brown did really.
Your right about the f15 there. The us government have so much power it seems in us defence matters.
U lost me with the Gordon brown part?
Made sure the RN were getting the carriers and that they were to be built at Rosyth. Which just happens to be in his constituency.
In part correct but actually most of the carriers were made else where in the UK and assembled in Rosyth which was far from the biggest share of their cost. Only place able to do so other than H&W in NI which was almost dead by then.
The US is also developing NGAD, so it seems we are emulating the US except we aren’t buying more Typhoons.
“Designed to complement the F-35, F-22, joint, and partner forces in the Air Superiority role, Next Generation Air Dominance is an advanced aircraft program for development of penetrating counter air platforms with multi-domain awareness, agile resilient communications, and an integrated family of capabilities.”
Just typical, great Idea and concept for Britain to show the world ,but due to budget constraints we’re just buy off the shelf and place british made rondels on the airframe ,Didn’t this happen before with the Tr2???
Another Shakespearean tragedy The Tempest but we did get a satellite from the main character which was British built Prospero
The general lack of understanding and doom and gloom on this thread is outstanding. For some many who show an interest in defence matters, the lack of basic understanding is pretty scary. Out of 121 comments, about 20 are positive, and show a good level of understanding and common sense. The rest are like school children comments. The worst enemies of British defence projects, are the uninformed who write it off before it’s even started. To many opinions, and not enough brain cells.
And maybe a lot of us are “old sweats” who have seen, lived and breathed this gumph before. Just be honest, defence in the UK is in the hands of corporations who blind brass and politicians with crud. THATS where cynicism comes from.
And i understand that Karl. But many slag things off before even looking at the basics facts. The T45 Destroyer story yesterday was a very good example of people rushing to comment disgrace and outrage when they don’t even understand the difference between refits and maintenance periods.
Amen to that. You’d never believe it from reading most comments on here but we have the most powerful military in Europe. If you don’t believe me ask Putin.
Agreed. It is perhaps just the way of the world now to express thoughts apparently without either researching the topic or including caveats around an opinion should there not be time for the research.
Yes, social media is a minefield of people quick to comment before reading the articles. The defence sites on Facebook are even worse. I stay clear of them now. Defence can be a frustrating business for those who care enough. But two many are quick to write us off, when we are in a pretty good state in many area’s. Tempest has a long way to go, but i belive the ambition is there, and the money considering we are still suffering from a global pandemic. I think a 2035 entry service date is a tad ambitious, and I wouldn’t right off the idea of joining the American or France/Germany projects once technology demonstrators have been built and we have clear requirements. Navigating the political landscape is probably just as challenging as the technology. 👍
As you might surmise from my screen name, I see the positives in the UK’s changing defence position. For many there seems to be a wholly unrealistic expectation to be able to reverse the defence trends and overall financial challenges of the last 30 years in the blink of an eye, in order to get to the land of rainbows and unicorns, presumably by using a magic money tree at Westminster. It doesn’t mean we can’t be constructively critical, unfortunately too many miss the constructive bit.
As to Tempest, 2035 for IOC seems ambitious but perhaps that’s because we are used to aircraft programs mired in political and technical delays. While the Boeing-SAAB T-7 is relatively speaking a simple aircraft versus an advanced frontline fighter, it does show its possible to get an airframe developed and into production very rapidly. Its probably too late and also undesirable to combine with either of the other programmes IMV, simply because it would almost certainly stretch out the timeline and drive up costs. Workshare and IP already caused some issues for the European project, although those seems to be resolved at this point. It would also probably mean the best the UK could hope for is a share of manufacturing with no IP content, the latter being a big issue with F-35.
Yep people moan how the costs of the F35 ran away. We have capped investment and will be prioritising requirements. If this was 450m overspent the same bunch would be moaning.
Definitely. Couldn’t agree more 👍
When you dig into this it appears to a rather premature assessment. Firstly its a £12.8b program so its 3% cut but it also unclear that money has been cut from the program overall. Its saying the first phase is now 450m less which adds risk to follow on phases.
There’s also valid reason why you may want to do this 1 could be you have time boxed the assessment phase and there’s no more time left consume the funds, Extending the phase to consume the funds also risks IOC so you take a program decision, most likely the high priority and high risk requirements are already understood by this time.
I wouldn’t flag any program at red or even amber until there’s 10% variance as your dealing with estimates when forecasting/budget and 10% is a reasonable tolerance.
Nobody is listening here dude. Very sad.
Agree, a number you can see right through the comments most trying to make it a political point.
The defence review showed we are moving into an even more uncertain world.
We have a ever more belligerent Russia with Putin trying to distract from home problems and China looking at taking over the entire China sea.
Now is not the time!!
Agreed
We need a SpaceX approach / startup to disrupt existing defence industries and methods. Screaming out for change.
And do we really need a few-and-expensive weapons platform yet again? How about a many-and-cheap or swarm approach?
How would a few 6+gen warplanes defend our island against attack that would surely start with hundreds of cruise missiles?
Would thousands of defensive missiles of various types be more effective, cheaper and easier to replace, offering sustainable attrition rates under a true war footing?
I don’t know.
I effin hope there’s an Elon Musk of the defense industry out there who does.
It’s all too much the same old same old thinking and doing.
Meh.
NAO report conclusion in full: “Tempest funding less that required…but still way more than whatever Russia is spending on its new single engine jet fighter, and at least there’s no arguing about who builds what like the FCAS!”
One thought about the single seat of tempest is can the pilot manage everything that needs done if he’s flying with 6 drones and 50 swarming drones. Personally I would prefer a back seater for when the proverbial hits the fan
Yeah I have wondered about this previously, whether the rise of the loyal wingman concept would lead to a renaissance in backseaters, together with having a dedicated EW operator. But then the pilot reports of flying the F35 have all talked about how easy it is to fly that they can devote more time to the mission, so even with the extra roles fastjets are asked to carry out in future, maybe the technology now is so advanced that the backseater is (still?) redundant, or should I say, the Goose is cooked??😉
A jafo would come in handy , but honestly surely a Hands on approach in training would without doubt require a two seater and I don’t mean a HAWK would suffice as the Tempest would be in theory so much more Could this be achieved ?
Lots of negativity regarding this project. The £12 billion invested in this project is being used to develope the airframe shape, the software, the sensors and the helmet, these things are critical to make it the world’s first 6th generation fighter. So yes right now you don’t see much of the actual aircraft as this will be made on a computer and simulated for many thousands of hours before you ever see one being built and tested. This project will go ahead, my fear is maybe watered down to eventually become a 5.5 generation fighter. A stealthy version of a Typhoon that won’t have the pilotless autonomy or drone swarm capability. However when BAe and Rolls Royce are involved you know what you’ll end up with will still be something very special. As this is critical to our future defence I can’t imagine any future government trying to shelve it and replace it with what, a foreign built aircraft? The Americans stopped production of the F22 around 10 years ago and aren’t selling it to anyone (I appreciate it’s only 5th gen). We are not part of the European project to develope their own 6th generation fighter. It’s either the Tempest or a Chinese or Russian fighter and neither would be considered. So let’s see what happens before assuming it will go the same way as the TSR4 or HOTAL
I think that is ultimately the problem, the sheer costs involved in getting a modern fighter to market is going to be huge and can the three member nations really afford it. If Japan and a couple of other nations had joined, then it might have been viable but i question if it can be with just uk/sweden/italy.
I tried to find the total R&D cost for the F35 or Typhoon but couldn’t find them, but guessing well above the £2b that the UK gov has so far committed to pay upto 2025. £2b is a lot of money, but right now it feels like its being thrown away as I just can’t see the project resulting in anythng.
MR Wallis must have Oppos within BAE systems as they have been awarded 250million for Assessment and Concept programme for Tempest