The panel discuss the possibility of a Turkish invasion of northern Syria and look at Russian advances and fall-backs in Ukraine.

This episode features @Osinttechnical and @KyleJGlen.

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George Allison
George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
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13 COMMENTS

    • Excuses are like arseholes, we’ve all got one! Are these the defences you said the Russians would be through in 24 hours, with minimal effort and probably just using missiles, with half trained conscripts blah blah…would you like me to dig out your previous posts on this and paste them here Putin puppet? Give yourself a break and maybe admit which side of the fence you are on and also condemn Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine? Silence is all I hear….but now I’ve said that you may respond with chuff but not with an answer!

    • Hi Johnskie, one of many you posted previously, I could go on and on but cant be bothered!…….”I agree totally with DM. As I have already posted, if Russia goes in, which it will only do if provoked, it is likely to be over in hours with no invasion. The militia in the Donbas, fully trained and equipped, will be capable of sorting out the UA after that rain of death. Our QR forces wont have even got to Brize”.

    • JohninMK
      JohninMK
      4 months ago
      Reply to dave12

      “You put very well the reason why Russia is highly unlikely to do more in Ukraine than is necessary to defend Donbas if it is attacked. As a byproduct that might involve the destruction of the Nazi oriented Azoz groups as well as much of Ukraine’s military infrastructure. By using stand-off weapons but there would be little need for many Russian soldiers to cross the border”.

      Another special one form you Jonhskie……but I will stop there, I dont mean to keep embarressing you and your boss PoopTin.

    • Another top post from you Johnskie……Love the fact you are wrong with your propganda chuff every post!

      Reply
      JohninMK
      JohninMK
      3 months ago
      Reply to dan

      “The US/UK plus a NATO token group have got themselves into a rather unfortunate position.

      If the Russians attack to defend their citizens then it is possible nothing apart from that will happen. but if, contrary to what Putin has said, the actually attack Ukraine then, as almost everyone agrees it will be over in days. Then it gets interesting.

      Biden will have to sanction Russia or lose face but the potential sanctions that have been discussed so far are, as you describe “useless” but whilst they will have an impact on Russia the probable Russia action would be a disaster for all in the West. Europe without gas in March? Very possible as most of the EU’s gas from Russia is on ‘spot’ not ‘contract’ supply so they could easily and legally shut the valves. Sending energy prices, including ours, through the roof.

      If Russian oligarchs in the West are hit they will send money, if it hasn’t already gone, out of the UK in particular, with a good chance it goes back to Russia, not the intention but good for PuThere are many other adverse financial effects but also political. The US/UK will have shown again that they won’t support allies when push comes to shove. Our expertise seems to be of the cause chaos then get out variety.

      My view is that all this is being puffed up (imminent invasion for around 8 weeks now) so when nothing happens Biden and Boris and maybe Macron (election April) can all claim victory as their actions ‘saw the Russians off’ rather than acknowledging that Putin has done what he said from the start, no invasion.

      Mind you everyone can get all worked up if those 3 RuN Moskva class cruisers get together in the Eastern Med and then the Black Sea. Incidentally almost all the Black Sea Fleet is dockside currently, so they aren’t expecting much soon.”

      EDIT correct spelling mistake

    • When the dust is settled on this war, there will be a lot of books written on what Ukraine did to defeat Russia (hopeful outcome) and what Russia did wrong. It will be interesting to better understand what really happened during the various battles.

      • I would imagine that some of the prep work and data gathering is already underway. One of the problems that potential authors will have if they leave that activity too long is that much useful data is on social media which disappears down memory holes becoming increasingly difficult to find as time passes. Much easier to snapshot it.

        Until we know what the Russians intents were we won’t know what they actually got wrong as opposed to judging it against what we would have done. Independent of that, they clearly had failures in some of their operations.

        As to who is going to win, my view (which has been attacked hard here – see above posts) has not changed and as time passes, the Russians seem to be in no hurry, that end result seems increasingly likely. A military dismissed here as a bunch of not much more than rapists and looters, with crap equipment on the ground and in the air, using bad strategies and tactics, they seem to be doing rather well against what started out as the largest, well trained and equipped, most dug in (see my first post at the top of this thread) fighting force in western Europe

        Perhaps some here should modify their view in line with the changes in reporting that are are occurring in the MSM, with much more acceptance of Ukraine’s actual position on the ground. This change co-incidentally happening after the $40B was safely passed in Congress, an action that created pots of money for all kinds of non Ukraine related activities, which may give a hint that the actual reasons for this event only have a passing connection with Ukraine.

        • Social media is insanely biased though, as it’s impossible to fact check. Firstly the people posting are not expects in what they are reporting and making assumptions based on lack of knowledge and also everyone has a bias they are trying to sell. If anyone is writing books based on social media they are just in it for cashing in purposes.

          As for Russia not being in a hurry, I would disagree with that. Their rapid advance on the capital showed they were in a hurry. They have been forced to take time to regroup and resupply after that disaster. They now have to race against the west, they need to get their aims achieved before the heavy gear arrives as that will likely return the tables again.

          The only question is what really is their aim, is it to take the whole of Ukraine or have they reduced it to a more achievable goal, and if so what goal, impossible to know at this stage.

          • I agree with your biased comment but I would also postulate that the ‘official’ media are sometimes much the same. We should be smelling a rat when we are only allowed to see one side and are unable to make a judgement ourselves. I have little doubt that, on both sides, the interviewed tend to answer questions, which may be leading, in ways that they expect the interviewer to expect, that’s human nature. Authors can suffer from the same biases or can write to suit their audience or paymaster, which is why history can be as the winners want it to be.

            I am not sure what this turning the tables gear you mention is. We have seen false dawns before, first the ATGM and MANPADs then Polish and others ex WP weapons, then the M-177, all doing damage but none of which delivered to the front in sufficient volume to have much apparent effect on the Russians progress. I doubt that US MLRS will change much either as they offer little more than the existing MLRS especially as it looks like the 300km rockets will not be included. The Ukrainians, whilst not running out of manpower, are running out of trained personnel as Russian artillery gradually eliminates them, whilst the latest arrivals at the front are increasingly reluctant to be ‘gunfodder’ once they realise what they are facing, as opposed to what they were told.

            The Russians are clear on their objectives, they just haven’t said how and how far they will go to achieve them. In this they are reflecting the US and NATO seldom defining what a ‘win’ is.

            We also ought to step back and look at the total picture. Just as the North Africa campaign was a part of WW2 so this fight in Ukraine is just part of the US’s fight to maintain its ’empire’ like position in the World. The US as unipower is, with the increasing power of Russia and China, under threat as never before, they will throw anyone under the bus in an attempt to maintain it. We just need to listen to Austin saying that Ukraine is all about draining Russia to get that.

            Our Empire and power is gone, we are now a, albeit very useful at times, helper to the US. These are not good times we are living in.

          • Don’t worry we will soon have the real official history told by hollywood. How a mentally damaged US ex special forces soldier single handly beat off the Russians, involving some sexy scientist.

          • Christ on a bike you type some chuff, but as we ignore what you say, as it depends on your daily/weekly agenda and instructions, we are all intrigued by the lack of condemntaion of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine? Why? Do you want me to re word it as “Russias special operation” to make it more paltable? Are you scared to admit you support it? No moral fibre? Intrigued.

        • FFS you are hilarious. We can all read you intial posts and propganda on the subject, certainly the way you described the Ukrainian military, ceretainly NOT what you are saying now (excuses, excuses). And yes the Russians were and still are crap, but remember, after an extended peiod of time you can even teach a monkey to use a spoon!!!!! The Russians will eventualy rob, rape and murder their way through a large portion of Ukraine, but, with time thats a given with their blunt, dumb and simpleton tactics and SOPs. However is that somethging to be proud about, certainly friggin not!

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