The Russian invasion of Ukraine – One week later

Pretty much this.

I would agree, having to talk to that vile excuse for a man, must turn his stomach, he’s probably sick in the nearest waste paper bin after the call!

But things will get ‘really’ dangerous with no lines of communication open!

The problem is this, Putin’s quick invasion and regime change has stalled and might well fail.

Putin ( like many of the head shed in Russia) can’t be seen to fail and simply won’t back down what ever the cost….

So tactics will shift, soldiers will start mopping up operations after artillery and airstrikes reduce Ukraine to ruins and many thousands will be killed on both sides.

What comes next, probably a protracted war and a growing Insurgency in the occupation areas.

All on NATO’s door step and with the growing chance of an exchange of fire between NATO and Russia as the war grinds it’s bloody way through Western Ukraine.

It’s an absolute cluster f*ck of a bloody disaster, as our American cousins would say…….

Germany is sending Ukraine old GDR SAM 7 missiles.

It only a small thing but for Germany that is huge. It’s stepping across a self imposed line they have not crossed for 75 years.

It is really important for the West, with this change and the 100billlion Germany will become ( hopefully) a third major European NATO player in all domains of Geopolitics, not just soft power Player of back seat geopolitics ( which tends to fail without hard power to back it up).

Excellent point about Germany.

Should they follow through as form the European triumpvirate of European powers that they should have always been, European NATO could actually be capable enough to confront Russian without the need of massive US re-enforcement.

Return to sender so too speak they might be an old AA system but Warsaw pact countries were flooded with them during the Cold War , good too see that their going the other way John

Will be fine against hellos not much use against fast jets.

The fact there are loads of these around will change the risk balance.

Nobody will have sent the newest models of anything as it is certain that some fall into Russian hands.

That said if it hits and reliably mission kills T72 or 80 then it does the job and will take out any of the other Russian lighter armour.

There are so few Armarta that it isn’t worth worrying about and I suspect we won’t see them in action as they won’t want to reveal that in battle they are just as useless as the T80.

Up to 2700 Strela, in addition to 500 Stinger and 1000 Panzerfaust3
UKR soldiers know how to use Strela.
Even if they only work half the time, it is still a threat RUS pilots have to honor.
If 1600 are safe to send (wont blow up) and 800 work as they should, theyll still bring down 200 Russian jets. Well worth it.

“Up to 2700 Strela”
Dont be so happy about these:.. they are 30+years old from RDA.
A report from Germans 2 month ago talked about more than half were rusted and with moisture.

They probably need new batteries to have any hope of working. Perhaps the upgrade the CIA did to SAM 7, when Russia was in Afghanistan?

Amid news on Russian troops slowly advancing on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, and bombardments and civilian casualties reported daily, Germany decided to send defensive weapons to the ex-Soviet country, including Strela light-weight, shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missile, or MANPADS.

Yet, there may be a problem because, according to the local reports, a large part of these missiles are no longer operational as they have long been left to rot in storage facilities.

Earlier, it was claimed that the European country was to send a total of 2,700 Strela missiles, though the delivery has not yet been approved.

The Soviet-made missiles belonged to the National People’s Army (NVA) of what was once called the German Democratic Republic (GDR) or East Germany. The question was whether these missiles are still functioning, and according to German weekly magazine Der Spiegel, they absolutely are not. Some 700 missiles in the delivery are no longer operational, Der Spiegel reported, which was later cited by the daily tabloid Bild, as well. The Federal Office for Equipment exports is to check the material before the delivery of the missiles is approved by the Federal Security Council.
The reports noted that the rockets are at least 35 years old and were blocked from use in 2012 due to “microcracks in the ammunition’s propellant charge, which led to corrosion/oxidation.” Der Spiegel also stressed that the wooden boxes in which the rockets are stored were so moldy that Bundeswehr soldiers in November were only allowed to enter the storage facilities with protective equipment.

The leader that should be in touch is Merkel, they have had a decent relationship over the years.

Having Macron after the first meeting Putin described the meeting as having 6 hours of his life wasted to follow up with a threat of nuclear war is clearly the wrong person to have a line of communication open.

Also Macron putting his personal spin on it all for his upcoming election is clearly not interested in anything other than personal gain.

Yes if she was still in office I think your spot on.

You have to wonder if the fact Germany had a new chancellor may have played into timing. Putin would have expected a very weak response from a new chancellor feeling his way into the job…instead he got a guy who just stood up and flipped Germany into its most aggressive geopolitical stance In 75 years. One more miss calculation I think.

Well the new chancellor came over as very weak and then basically said nothing would happen.

Until his population told him to get his finger out as they were not I interested in being spectators to a mitigable genocide.

But he did get his finger out, and completely changes the German stance. Let’s be honest there have been a fair number of genocides in the last 60 years and Germany has never moved from its stance one inch.

Germany will have a bigger budget than the UK with its new actions , I’m still waiting for our Gov to get it finger out on the bloody army , its beggars belief what they are doing.

Yes I am surprised they have not come out with a statement on defence spending, both Germany and France have. The things that will make both Russia and China play nicely is a United and rearmed western world.

The Chinese’s will certainly be taking note of how a half trained army is doing so badly against a NATO trained determined army with a determined population to back it up.
The Chinese did not do too well with Vietnam in the 70’s

The reality is Ukraine has a standing professional army of around 125,000, with about 900,000 reservists with some military training. Although they are performing well they are losing and will lose.

russia has a conscript army of 260,000 but with a massive difference in material and because of this they will win.

china has an army of a million+ with almost 20,000 armoured vehicles, it’s a juggernaut, if only a regional juggernaut. There’s not going to a military on the planet that would want to face that.

Don’t write Ukrainian forces off yet! They have “right” on their side plus most of the free world behind them! I hope the West can keep up supplies of weapons to them so they can have an ongoing and deadly impact on the Russian forces.

The problem is Quentin that this type of ongoing warfare kills the nation that is the battlefield not just troops. At some point it will become count productive to Ukraine, They will lose, either through Destruction of the fabric of their nation or the loss of there armed forces. Remember at some point, public health will collapse and the population starts to die of disease, hunger, cold etc as well as war.

Ukriane needs to decide how long it can stay a battlefield and that’s not actually that long if you still want a functional nation.

So unfortunately they will have to at some point just get what they can and continue the struggle in other ways., continued Ongoing high intensity warfare is not an option that should be considered

There seems to be a big gap between what the Russians think of as professional soldiers ,which in the Ukraine is showing.

yes, you have to remember Ukraine had a tiny defence budget but what they do have is a full professional army and when you take the against a conscript army like Russia it’s going to hurt. But what Russia has is the enablers in massive numbers, huge numbers of fires counts So Russia is winning

The lesson for the west needs to be that quantity still matters, As long as it’s also backed by the same quantity of enablers like fires. and quality only goes so far without that quantity. Remember China has a couple of million under arms as well as 10,000s of armoured vehicle’s ( which are not ex Soviet cast offs ) as well as Fires in the many thousands.

The west has fallen into a trap of losing balance, we have probably the best trained soldiers in the world, but they will be a few thousand backed by a few fires and a couple of dozen tanks. We need to get to an appropriate mass of artillery ect.

Agree with you. A bigger and more powerful Germany and France may also mean more geopolitical competition for a say on things with the UK. Like others have said here the UK forces needs to be beefed up. The quality is always there just need more quantity and all in the right places. We’ll have to leave that to the “experts” but for god’s sake don’t the powers that be leave the UK and it’s people under protected. The UK prides itself on it’s global soft power influence which also needs hard economic-military power to prevent it from shrinking. Hope there’s some extra government action on this. I like it how Italy is quietly going about increasing their Navy, ships, subs, missiles, and now Germany. C’mon the 🇬🇧!

Probably not.

Like a lot of people stated, Germany, France and UK have always been balanced between them for their budgets during the cold war and after.
I dont think its going to change.

Agreed

Merkel left office nearly 3 months ago.

Im fully aware of that however if anyone in Europe had some chance of talking very frankly with Putin that he would listen to its her.

Macron despite his publicity stunts of trying to be the leader of Europe is clearly not helping the situation.

Ladder for climb down to be provided.

Dictator paradox.

Why dodgy policeman are allowed to retire with pensions…

All the same fundamental reasoning: better rid.

A surrounded army must be given a way out. The ancient rule of the charioteers says, “Surround them on three sides, leaving one side open, to show them a way to life. Show them a way to life so that they will not be in the mood to fight to the death, and then you can take advantage of this to strike them.”

You are “quoting” some rubbish from 2 millennia ago and trying to apply it to modern warfare and weapons.
A little more up to date. The Falaise Pocket or Ruhr Pocket of WW2…
Modern warfare is total for Both sides…you don’t let anyone off with a get out of jail free card.

Agreed Gunbuster,

Hilter paused his advance on Dunkirk, thank god, and live to regret it. The evacuated soldiers carried their rifles out but not much else. Kit can be replaced, experienced troops not so easy.

It is one reason I think the Ukrainians’ should pull back from the Eastern boarder region now that the Russians are approaching the Dnieper River on the southern flank. They will need all their capability if they are to hold Kyiv and Western Ukrainian long enough for the West to get the supply lines working properly.

Not until we see convoys of trucks rolling into Ukrianian will the West be able to say they did enough. No sign of that yet on the pictures I have seen, although I recognise soem supplies are getting through.

Cheers CR

Most warfare is not total (And even now let’s be honest here Russia could have been far more indiscriminate with its bombardment, there is usually a balance that is met as warfare always has a political element at least at first) This is a war of destruction for Ukraine not Russia. So it could ending some form of negotiated peace if Ukraine makes it difficult and Putin gets what he needs. You don’t want to fight to the total destruction of your nation if you can help it.

If there is a way for Ukraine to survive and Putin to get what he wants Ukraine should take it. Getting rid of Putin it’s not Ukraine’s job, they just have to survive whatever way they can and if that giving Putin a get out of jail card so be it, they just have to survive. And giving someone an out of a bad situation that’s even worse for you is not rubbish.

The removal of Putin and the essentially facist government of Russia is the aim and job of the west not Ukraine.

Just to be clear Gun, I’m not using I in the context of operational war fighting. I’m using it in the political realm. We need him to have a way out before he utterly destroys Ukraine as a nation, kills many 10s of thousands and creates a million permanent refugees.

So the golden bridge is the negotiated settlement, after that the west needs to completely contain and then throttle Russia until Putin has gone. The golden bridge Example is current in so many ways, especially in negations that are and can only be adversarial.

Actually it’s not rubbish, it’s basic psychology. To fight with your back to the wall means you will fight harder because there is no other option. The natural instinct is to run if you think you can’t win. Some will run regardless. Some will fight regardless. Some will fight if they think it’s worth fighting for or they think they will win.

Modern warfare is different to 2,000 years ago, but human psychology has not changed. Even in modern warfare it is still a tactic that has value. If you know which way an enemy will try to break out then you are one step ahead (provided you can still do something about it). If the opposition think they can retreat, then it remains an option. If they think they can’t, then it’s either surrender or fight it out. Whether they can in fact retreat is another matter. A rout is a real thing & never ends well.

Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are bound to repeat it. Even 2,000 years ago, you did not necessarily let the enemy go, but you needed to be prepared to pay the butchers bill if you don’t. Sometimes it’s smarter to take the win.

Politics & live video feed also needs to be taken into account. Generals/Admirals (on the whole) tend to be professionals. Politicians, not so much. The mother whose child did not come back does not count in the scheme of the war, but she can vote & that vote will count (provided we win). Do you honestly thing a repeat of Dresden will go down well with the public?

Unfortunately America is going the way of France with Biden in the WH. The new generations of American are weak and want the government to so everything for them. The days of America being the land of the free and home of the brave is over. Now the rest of the world suffers…..

Kennedy said what was true of America when he took office “Ask not what my Country can do for me ,Ask what can I do for my Country ” Biden has reversed that statement, I just hope he and Macron disappear into the Sunset with their White flags There should be an Age limit on taking the reigns of power both Under age and Over age Daniele

To me Tony Blinken, the SOS, looks like he would make a good President. Thinks and speaks well, seems like a straight shooter but also diplomatic, looks way more competent han Biden, Harris even ol’ Trump. Hope the US stays strong.

dan you Russian troll do you not understand your job is so much at risk your Russian troops are taking a hammering before even the insurgency begins, your 7 rubles an hour job is soon to be gone , you might even have to join the Rus army things are that bad LMAO!!!!

7 rubbles an hour…they will be paying him in buckwheat soon…

I had that in Latvia – God in heaven, I just could not get the taste for it and they were always serving it up.

Kapusta zupas on the other hand was fantastic.

I don’t think dan is a russian troll, I think he may be one of those right thinking Fred Perry wearers and let’s be honest if your Fred Perry shirt is not dayglow pink, yellow or neon blue your clearly making a massive fashion and political faux pas.

Ah yes that type ,good point. Shame though i got two Fred Perry polo T’s.

It all depends on the colour of your polo T Dave, as long as they are not yellow and black your ok.

interestingly Fred Perry have been fighting against the high jacking of their logo and shirts by the far right since around 2017, they have done a lot to try and combat this.

What is utterly ironic is that Fred Perry came from a left wing background, his dad was a socialist MP, his business partner in the clothing industry was Jewish Eastern European…the company and its roots are so far from the far right as you can get..

I’m good then , yes the history of Fred Perry confirms the intellect of these far right muppet’s lol.

Dan, what evidence do you have of any of that? If you had actually met those young americans who fought recently in Afghanistan, Iraq or elsewhere – as I have – you wouldn’t be spouting such obvious nonsense. Switch off Fox News and actually meet really people

Wasting 90 mins of Putin’s day must be useful.

Yes but you’ve seen what happens to people who upset him Frank hopefully Macron likes Russian Tea or Perfume

That’s 90mins he’s not doing something horrible in.

Exactly Jonathan,

That’s really bad…really bad.😂😂

I know Johnathan but unfortunately that seems too happen with people who either upset him or talk back to him on a regular basis

A token force is enough for a tripwire capability.

Trip wire is designed around an invasion having started, and slowing it down. A bigger force could discourage before it starts

I guess we have different definitions of tripwire. If you cross a tripwire it sets off something. If the Russians cross the eFP tripwire in Poland or the Baltic states, it sets off an Article 5 response by NATO, which would involve more than the in-place eFP forces.

Na same definition. My point is Russia could gamble that NATO would not react, like they didn’t with Ukraine. Article 5 is a piece of paper, doesn’t cause anyone to react, polictics does that. A massive deployment make it clear that gamble or not, your fighting NATO

Article 5 led directly to the Global War on Terror, following the 9/11 attack.

It appears he still is.

There is also the Russian speaking minorities in the Baltic states that Putin could also say are being downtrodden by Nationalists (Nazis) Swindon Steve

Hence Georgia is applying for EU membership but that will no doubt rile Putin!

I’m not sure the EU will take Georgia for the same reason Ukraine could not join NATO.

At present Russia is occupying Georgian soil, so as soon as Georgia becomes an EU member state, article 42(7j of the Maastricht treaty ( strengthen by Lisbon treaty modifications). This is basically if an EU member state is the victim of armed aggression within its boarders all EU members states are required to provide all aid and assistance within their power. It’s not as water tight a mutual defence pact as article five ( which is a one at war all at war level treaty). But as the international community still recognises the original sovereign borders of Georgia, the moment Georgia joined the EU, all EU nation states would be in a defacto state of war and the first military unit of an EU nation that was engaged by Russia would trigger article 5 and we would all be at war with Russia.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/03/03/moldova-asks-to-join-the-european-union-a-week-after-russia-invades-ukraine

Who is next, Kaliningrad!?

Probably Moldova by ‘assisting’ the ethnic Russian rebels in Transnitra. Same tactic as Ukraine.
I have just emailed No10 with the suggestion that we might with the EU put boots on the ground to assist the Modovan forces to eliminate Transnistra rebels. Time to give Mr Putin some of his own medicine I think. I’m sure Moldova who have recently applied to the EU would welcome the help. Time also for the EU ‘army’ to show what its made of.

It’s already Russian.

I know, it was a sarcastic comment that it might even want to join the EU!

I think Moldova next. Small continuation of the war from Ukraine. Then I agree turning south to take Georgia. He wants an empire a buffer zone (read battleground) between Russia and NATO.

Moldova is also applying for EU membership.

They need perhaps to get Transnestria back pronto; it is part of their country.

Don’t you think the Russian Army is struggling to take Kyiv, let alone most, if not all, of Ukraine?

Moldova is likely the next target. They should drop claims on Transnistria, that way, they could be brought quickly into EU/NATO, if there are no longer territorial disputes.

I agree and the EU need to move fast.

You assume he will win in Ukraine, be hugely popular with the People and stay in power.

The truth is he’s going to win what he needs in Ukraine, the fight is to asymmetric and Ukraine cannot sustain a major war on its own soil. Fighting a war on your own soil is utterly destructive, water, power, food, sanitation, basic public health all shatter and your population being to not only die of the direct effect or war but all those indirect, so unless Ukraine has the power to move take the fight to Russia ( which they don’t ) they will loss. It’s just a matter of how much they bleed Russia and what they can keep in any negated settlement. As for staying in power, yes he will, contrary to the messaging about it not being a Russian war ( this is the west undertaking communication based warfare, which is important) he does and has for most of his time as leader Maintained a good 60-70 percent popularity in Russia ( that’s form reputable western and neutral polling companies).

Personally I don’t think he will go for the whole of Ukraine, he will take the coast, providing a link from Donbas/Russia through to Crimea and Moldova. He will also hold the east of the county and I think he will try to take the capital. So I would imagine he would the. Leave a negotiated rump Ukraine ( so forming a Russian east and western looking west Ukraine.

I am afraid Russia is not a nation with any form of democratic history and the population generally like a strongman. Yes there are the well educated urban population but they don’t hold any real power. He’s a brutal dictator with popularist support, it’s unlikely he’s going anywhere, unless he’s replaced by someone exactly the same.

Jonathan, you are sure that Russia will win. However, if Ukraine adopts insurgency/assymetric tactics the situation will be as for the Soviet Union in Afghanistan – the Russians would withdraw.
I am not so sure that Putin will stay in power – the oligarchs whose assets have been frozen will be against him, many of his Generals, those with an interest in banking and the economy, and now we hear of rebellious/rogue elements in the FSB (some of whom are a dab hand at serving poisoned tea).
The population who are getting information from world sources must surely realise the lies of State media and the folly of Putin’s war – I could see popular support dipping well below your 60 – 70% figure in the comng days and weeks.
I agree with your assessment of what bits of Ukraine he wants – he may find the battle for Kyiv very costly.

The problem is Graham it’s not Afghanistan. There is a significant ethic russian population that will support a Russian Occupation as well as the fact most Ukraine’s do have shared Heritage so most will not like it but they will live with russian occupation.

Afghanistan:

1) is a country of mountains and some of worst geography on the planet for a modern army to fight.
2) it’s people have a history of constant warfare, they even constantly fight with each other.
3) food and water security are a mare as are any logistics
4) It’s people have no link and there is no friendly population or common binding culture.
5) it’s logistics links to Russia were very difficult indeed.

Any Russian occupation will probably end up more like the Northern Ireland troubles ( in-fact it would become an almost virtual analog).

This is because:

1) an inbuilt friendly ethnic russian population to counter the Non ethnic russian population.
2) very easy lines of logistics from three sides
3) Same language and shared culture.
4) Ukraine is not a warrior or tribal culture.

So in reality is if the Ukrainian Government falls and it’s armed forces are defeated, population would be as likely to Be able to remove Russia as the republicans in Northern Ireland could remove the British government by force, of the basque separatist, or the resistance movement in occupied France. The Ukrainian government and west are bigging up the idea of resistance as they have few other tools, but it’s a forlorn hope that will just get people killed for little gain, if it goes down that road, armed forces liberate countries, not a few brave freedom fighters, they just keep,the idea burning.

As for Putin being removed from power, it is very unlikely as he is the head of a totalitarian dictatorship, plotting to remove him, potentially means a nasty interrogation and then being dead, so the people with power and good lives will only remove him if they think there own lives will be at risk….this a western false thinking, we have always got ride of leaders we did not like, it’s not the same in the rest of the world.

Even if Putin was gone…who do you think would take over ? It would be another strong man who would need to demonise the west and show strength, the likelihood of getting Ukraine back would be nil, as this new person would loss power, this is another bit of wester comms warfare you need to balance, it’s not putins war, it’s Russia and it is supported by many in Russia ( Many also don’t but they will not rise up and take power, they will protest and be abused by the state, but that is it).

The simple truth is without NATO military intervention Ukraine as was is almost inevitably doomed. NATO will not intervene for all reasons given, so Ukraine’s fate is sealed.

The only thing Ukraine can do make it hard for Russia to take the whole state and negotiate a demarcation east and west Ukraine and the west need to then make any western Ukraine nation a part of NATO and draw a thick red line… so it’s not is Ukraine doomed, yes it is, the only question is what can be saved and kept free.

Hi Jonathan, You are right that Afghanistan is different to Ukraine for all those reasons. I know Afghan and its people somewhat – I served there for 6 months in 2008-9. However if and when the Ukrainian armed forces are written down so much that they are combat ineffective, or have surrendered – than I have little doubt that many Ukrainians (clearly not the Russian-speakers), military, ex-military, civilians will embark on an insurgency campaign. They are fiercely patriotic, now hate Russia and its army with a vengeance – and many civilians have done national service and have been armed with the weapon of insurgents – the AK47.

I don’t see many Ukrainians meekly living with Russian occupation. I don’t see that there will be few freedom fighters, but many.

I don’t see that Op Banner and the IRA is much of a comparator to a Russian tank army and its air force bombing its way into a neighbouring country.
I don’t see the Ukrainian president agreeing to a divided country as you suggest.

Putin’s position is undeniably shaky – yes, he has been the strong man and has been popular for that but he has surely over-reached himself. Only the uninformed proletariat (those who get their war news from State radio and TV) might still approve of him and his overseas conquests – they will not keep him in power, as it is darker forces that might remove him. Who will replace him? I don’t know but would they dare to continue or repeat Putin’s ‘foreign policy’?

He technically cant be removed from power though can he? Unless he steps down or is no longer breathing.

And then there will simply be a new Putin…

Thats a complete unknown, depending on who steps up. The Russian public will not want another one in.

I don’t think the Russian people will have any say. Their experience of Actual valid democracy lasted for about 20 years, across the entire history of Russia.

From who exactly??? He only fears the American military and the idiot leading that has not courage at all. Just wait. Old Biden will give into Putin and promise him that Ukraine will never join NATO and will give Putin a new arms control treaty that castrates America even more than the previous treaties.

He’s Plastic Surgeon, Scalpel could slip dan

The united free world standing together. Yes, I would have laughed at that a fortnight ago, but each day brings more sanctions.

After this pathetic Russian military performance Dan, I think Putin will start fearing the Welsh Male Voice Choir…

Putin won’t be around to sign any new treaty.

There are more red hatched areas on the map of Ukraine than I would like.

The General Assembly roundly condemned Russia with only 5 countries supporting Russia, Even China abstained.

Cheers CR

Thanks CR. PRC is curious, but I’ll not trust her until she quits SCS, Taiwan threats & leaves the Uygurs alone for starters. PRC is a greater threat than Putin. Can’t trust either, especially what they say or sign.
I’m not against the nations or people, nor do I want to see their people suffer. It’s evil government that needs dealing with. I hold our own to the same standard.

Steve there’s a good programme on YouTube it’s a PBS production about PUTIN and how’s he’s wormed his way to power .He could have been stopped when he was Deputy Mayor of St Peters burg if the Police had followed up on an investigation into corruption missing millions and Putin behind it .Its very revealing

They very much are with Europe. USA doesn’t want Europe spending too much on military nor uniting militarily as that will exclude the USA, reduce their influence and give them another potential China sized competitor. Sad state of affairs, but that’s geopolitics for you. In order to achieve this, they need to deploy large amounts of troops in Europe to justify European states not spending lots on military.
There’s so much lies and spin around this. If EU formed Thier own version of NATO and each country ramped up defence spending to 3.5/ of GDP it would be very interesting to see America’s response.

In the amount of time that it would take for the EU to agree on the policies around such a scenario China will have been the world super power for about two decades.

Yes, that’s one of the sad nubs of democracy, good things seem to take so very long to come into play.

The USA has sent Javelin missiles, unexploded ordnance disposal suits, Mossberg shotguns, large amounts of belted 7.62 x51 ammo (which suggests they have sent machineguns too), anti bunker shoulder launched weapons & more.

America has 6 times our population and 15 times our defence budget. Of course they would gift more military kit than the UK. Does not mean our efforts are trivial.

America does not want to see its old ideological enemy, Russia, triumph.

Agree, as the cardinal said, Trump is a barbarian, but he’s our barbarian. His raw force was channeled for good in some areas like economic self sufficiency vs China and family values but it does look like Putin had some hold over him. But he did light the fuse of US re-awakening. Ukraine is a Pearl Harbour moment. Now the nation needs to come to terms with itself and unify. Biden is doing the job of the mirror in which the United States sees both its own reflection and the world – reality and vulnerability. God bless America !

Its either a sad state of events that have played out or a bigger plan by the west has been in place for some time to finally somehow remove Putin and or cripple Russia.

However I do totally agree, the EU and NATO simply should have said no membership for at least ten years then we will review it. That would have appeased Putin to some extent and by ten years time will he still be alive or in power? Kick the can down the road until a better time to do it.

Whatever the game in the background the world is now in a very dangerous situation and after trying to recover from 2+ years of a pandemic it is really not what it needs right now.

Very good point James. That hasn’t occurred to me the option of saying no EU nor nato for Ukraine for 10 years or so. Maybe this came up in debates and was refused by Russia. All I know is the papers stories which said that this wasn’t even open for discussion, who knows the truth of it.
It does feel a bit harsh dangling the promise of EU and then leaving Ukraine to get pummeled, although I appreciate Ukraine is getting a lot of western support and Russia is in economic calamity.
Ukraine probably could have played it a bit better too, the whole Cleopatra wooing multiple suiters gig, keeping everyone happy but committing to no one. That said, I have no idea of the political structure of Ukraine nor the state of the country, their systems may not have been strong enough to play this sort of game, although India is managing it pretty well.

Also I have no idea of the internal make up of Ukraine, one thing for certain is Russia will have people at all levels of government and they clearly have not been happy since the new guy took power.

Im sure the idea of a ‘delayed’ discussion must have come up it seems to simple a solution to an immediate problem for it not to have been discussed, I hope anyways! If it was rebuffed then we know something bigger is at play in the background.

No, it is wrong to target children whoever their parents are, that’s not who we are. What we’re avoiding is our responsability as a guarantor of Ukrainian soveriegnty is the duty & imperative to go in & eject Russia by force. No amount of hysterical outrage or sanctions(or our 2nd rate leaders grandstanding) are going to make up for pulling back & allowing Putin to get on with it. It just doesn’t cut it with dictators.

Usually I would agree with you, but if Putin bombards Kiev to dust, we need harder measures. Oligarchs think their kids are safe in Britain. If they are sent back to Russia, the oligarchs will worry their 17-22 sons will end up as cannon fodder. Might force them to take some sort of action against Putin.

Why send them the super sensitive raw stuff when all they need is what they need?

De minimis

I wasn’t disagreeing with you on that. I think you are absolutely right. I guess it came across as a little bit of dark humor that made me laugh much more than I expected.

Yes it looks like we have reached that point of him trying to level enter towns to get the resistance to simply give up, awful scenes.

Totally agree, those countries had to live under Russian influence and understand what that means more than anyone.

In the Cuba crisis, Russia blinked first.

Putin wasnt in charge then nor did they have missiles that could reach every corner of the planet, hence the crisis in the first place.

The West (USA, France, Britain) have missiles that can reach every part of Russia. It is called Mutually Assured Destruction for a reason.

Yes it is and its something you seem to be advocating in every post, are you actually wanting a nuclear war?

Are you sure you are a James? You sound more like a Guy, Kim, Donald or Anthony.

Like the touch with those Names from the past John , A privileged education can do so much damage as we found out

And the Americans removed their missiles from Europe that caused the Soviets to deploy theirs in Cuba in the first place. -Very quietly so the narrative was all Soviet aggression, but a fact nonetheless.

The deal that was done I believe was the removal of recently deployed US missiles in Turkey, Russia’s back yard in exchange for the dismantling of missile bases in Cuba, the US’ back yard.

👍 America, withdrawal their missiles from Turkey in return Russia withdrew their from Cuba but the media at the time never mentioned Turkey at all so to the West it looked like Kennedy had beaten Krustrov

In that case we might as well surrender and give Putin the keys to the White House because we’re going to fold to whatever Putin wants because we’re frightened he’ll play the nuclear card. Scrap our armed forces and nukes because we dare never use them.
He cannot be reasoned with, he believes he has a messianic mission to restore the Russian Empire. But look how frightened he is of his population. Shutting down news services that don’t broadcast his propaganda, arresting protestors, propaganda classes for school children. None of this sounds like the actions of a man who feels secure. He knows he’s put himself into a existential crisis, he must either conquer and hold Ukraine or his own position becomes untenable.

Quite so. USA & UK shot Ukraine in the foot declaring we’ll send no troops just before the invasion. We have as many nukes as Russia, so how come our deterrent didn’t stop Putin invading Ukraine(after he swore blind he wasn’t going to) & threatening anybody who interferes with nukes? Why did we sign guaranteeing Ukraine’s soveriegnty when she gave up her nukes, yet stand off & let Putin tear her apart to become a downtrodden, raped & ravaged colony?
We either stand up to Putin’s mafia state or appease away all our freedom & dignity. 44 million free Ukrainians sold down the river.

Agree 100%, the USA and U.K. as signatories of the Budapest Memorandum have a moral obligation to defend the Ukraine.

Im not going to pretend ive read that memorandum but every interpretation or discussion about it I have read the apparent defence of Ukraine as such was very loosely worded.

Technically by supplying arms we are in some way defending them is probably the justification of why we are doing it to meet what was agreed and signed.

Not too worry. Biden will give Putin everything he wants to leave Ukraine inorder for Putin to save face. He will promised that Ukraine will never be allowed in NATO and he will even castrate the American nuke forces even more than Obama did with a new treaty. Biden has no concept that the only way to stop a bully is to stand up to them and not capitulate to them. The free world will have to look elsewhere for leadership than America now.

absolutely agree DM. Better a lean peace than a fat victory as the old adage goes.

Thank you, no i hadnt read it, and it was most informative.

Just spheres of influence dressed up differently.

It might as well have been written by Tom Clancy.

Here’s the thing: it isn’t even original Putin thinking. He is recycling others rubbish though processes.

Daniele was found intact Russian military grade explosives Russian military Detonator And timer then all of a sudden the lot disappeared from the basement where it had been planted, Also the Apperment Blocks that were destroyed suddenly got totally bulldozed before forensics could be carried out and all the bodies retrieved from the rubble in Putins eyes Job done Next!!!!

If you don’t learn from your History your damned too repeat it

Hi SwindonSteve,

We should also remember the role that outside support plays in maintaining an effective resistance. The British went in big supporting the resistance to the Nazis through the activities of the SOE.

Towards the end of the war the Nazis tried to set up a similar resistance post war but after some limited attacks by hold outs it faded away.

So the fact that the West is backing the Ukrainians suggests that the Russians will have a very uncomfortable stay.

A key part of any resistance will be maintaining an information flow into Ukrainian. The BBC has already announced a new short wave radio service into Russia and Ukraine. The BBC is a major ‘soft’ power tool for the UK in these situations and its’ influence should not be underestimated. The World Service have been doing this sort of thing for 90 years after all (was the called Empire Service until 1988). It is autonomous from the rest of the BBC apparently and answerable to the FCDO!

Cheers CR

SB That’s when the Round Ups begin you can bet your bottom Dollar on that tactic just like the Nazis did , But Putin would some how justify it

So the entire Russian military is stationed inUkraine for the foreseeable future?

A good portion of his frontline combat strength might well if the UKrainians have properly planned and prepared a resistance.

Cheers CR

See above answer!

One only has to look at Western institutions, local and national government today, to see the result of the ‘long march through the institutions’ playing out in front of our eyes.

The above is a response to Expat🙄

Jacko, perhaps it won’t happen but its more likely over time, I mean say 20 years.. Iran controls its population through the Basij a pro government civilian force of a few million and brutal tactics to control the population.

Hi James I thought that aa well then remember how ISIS adapted just normal run of the mill Drones too be able just to drop Grenades in the Battle of Mosal if things get bad who knows

Didn’t know that James, hopefully they’ll be the suicide type and packed with explosives

Pretty much any on the market drone capable of carrying 1.5-2kg can be easily “adapted” to drop grenades or small charges and out to about a 1km range if you don’t care about recovering the drone, just has to have GPS and pre-programmable routing/servo control. Good for stationary soft targets for a resistance. Under radio control could be good in urban warfare for anti personnel.

Anti armour requires heavy weight drones just to carry the payload to hurt it, generally Ukraine are only going to get them supplied by another nation. Theoretically with enough commercial parts, a resistance force could make 1 but the problem is long range control, your limited to line of sight with radio wave and UHF so not sure an air/drone is best use of time/resources that close in, if you use GPS pre programmed flight the target can’t be moving, unless there’s some nifty AI developers in the future resistance.

defensenews has an opinion piece saying US should donate 3 A10 squadrons to Ukraine.

Ouch! That would hurt.

OK. Will read. Just needs to happen very quickly – i.e. needs “volunteer” A10 pilots.

Training doesn’t seem to be that great.

If that happens in peace and quiet what happens under fire?

Yeh, and don’t forget what the Panzers did in 1940..! The breakout through the Ardennes was a master stroke, they even had a major traffic jam!

Cheers CR

Hi Daniele,

Well Putin seems to think the Uks are Nazis so perhaps they do. Seriously though, this mud and logistics thing, Putin obviously didn’t go to Sandhurst.

Logistics have always been the Achilles heel of the Soviets/Russians. To be fair, the distances were vast and in general the infrastructure in Russia was exceptionally poor.

It’s more do they have a Manstein hidden somewhere.

They did have a reasonable number of tanks so they are presumably somewhere!

Truth be told the Ukrainians probably think a pitched tank battle isn’t the way forwards anyway.

Nope, course not. That’s agreed as the quickest way to defeat.

It’s suggested this column is mostly support vehicles with the Tanks ( presumably ) spread through the formation.

I guess I’m thinking of a Villers Boccage Michael Wittman moment with small groups hitting the formation from the forests.

Perhaps the TB2 will be better.

Hi SS.

If they were, there would still be no CS or CSS to unite with them to form Brigades from which our BGs are drawn.

They’ve all been cut while keeping infantry battalions, 8 of the 31 or so remaining, are being reduced or have been reduced to 250 to 300 men.

Combat infantry properly equipped are a must, of course. But on their own a LI battalion is limited. It needs supports.

My argument is to cut them and reinvest the manpower into the lacking CS elements. RA, AAC, and so on. Take the army counter battery capability for example in 5 RA. A mere handful. That, given the Russian priority in artillery and missiles, is criminal.

And to add a bit more context to that, regards the infantry –

By your comment of “required gear” I assume you mean an APC or IFV? The problem there is even going back to pre 2010 most infantry are light role. Armoured and Mechanized Infantry have never been numerous.

We had 33 infantry battalions recently( some say 32 ) reducing to 31.

Of those, 6 have Warrior and are in Armoured Brigades.
3 Have Mastiff and are in Armoured Brigades.

That is it regards Infantry with firepower beyond the usual FS Company of 81mm, GPMGs, Javelin, .50s, Snipers, and the NLAW and Light Mortar. ( withdrawn I believe )

That leaves 24 battalions.

2 are Para.
1 is Para in SF Support role.
2 are Gurkha.
Rest are Light Infantry, some 6 battalions of which had Foxhound and were briefly called Light Mechanized.

The money to create heavier mechanized and armoured infantry formations has never been there, even before the last decade of cuts.

I suggest to anyone to go on Google, and look on Pintrest to see the org chart for 1 (UK ) Division to see what I’m getting at.
Look and see the “Infantry Brigades” in it which are simply golfbags for infantry battalions with no supports some of which are used for public duties, garrisons in Cyprus and Brunei, or as a “deployable infantry brigade” according to MoD which in reality to those who know is bereft of all CS and CSS support and needs to get these by robbing Peter to pay Paul.

The formation of the SFAB “Security Force Assistance Brigade” and the “Special Operations Brigade” conveniently allow the retention of these cap badges you mention.
My position is have 1 of these, the S Ops Bde, but not both.

They are simply finding a role for orphaned infantry battalions who’s Brigades ( 7th Armoured, 2nd Armoured ( then Mechanized ) 19 Mechanized ( then Light ) were all chopped in the 2010 SDSR with their CS and CSS.

Cutting CS and CSS formations, part of larger Corps who are numbered and not named like county Infantry battalions is of less political difficulty to HMG. Look at the retention of the RRS Battalions for example while well recruited English battalions go to the wall.

Sorry for the rant.

BL wrote:

Cats are rightly associated with witches and the forces of darkness.

Mrs Miggins is a softie, and for some very strange reason has a huge fan base amongst our friends which explains why she receives more mail than I. ( i kid you not) as for associated with the forces of darkness, she has a habit of jumping on the bed, at 3 am then gravitating onto me in which to find a warm spot to settle down, whilst vocally expressing what a victim she is  

Merlot or Pinot Noir?
Pinotage

a nice SA Pinotage Mate!

I know mate, flogging a dead horse but isn’t it sad that such trolls, like this one and Kayaker, come on decent sites and churn out there troll garbage! And they think that we can’t clock them doing it! The thing with this clown is, have you noticed, no real in depth comments like he was spewing before, only irrelevant one liners or one paragraph about a single item! It’s a known way of stepping back, getting into a conversation with contributors who haven’t seen previous guff, gain a level of “trust” then back to previous vomit inducing rhetoric! I should ignore them, like Daniele does (he is so much more mature than me lol) but I enjoy finding these losers and ripping them! Cheers mate!

They are sad individuals. Stay safe A!

And you mate 👍

I actually looked again at Kayakers history today. Every post. Flippin hell.😳
Yes I remain civil but your eye for outing them is superb.
That is probably reflected in me having remained a civilian and you going on to do what you did, giving you the killer eye. Respect. As always. 👍

These killer eyes are now getting worn out and need glasses now when driving 😂 cheers mate

You have a talent for going after them. Good show!

They annoy me, ruining decent conversations and infesting the internet! Cheers Barry.

Since the double is now worth 7 pebbles-1, rent is harder for them to pay and the bucket of spuds is now going on the black market!

Double? Bloody predictive txt, should say the bloody rouble 💩

Any comments on your boss invasion of Ukraine? Condemnation or just continued ignorance and hope the fact we all know your a troll goes away? Pathetic.

It takes a perverted mind not to condemn the invasion of Ukraine by tiny dick Putin?

Troll time, stop with the chuff, and condemnation of Putin please? So you support the illegal invasion of Ukraine and the authorised murder of Ukrainian people!

Where your othe avatar kayaker? He’s a bit quiet, is he in the potatoe queue?

Esther….grrrrrrr……now your talking 🤮😂👍!

lol

Despite the EU thinking that its the inheritor of Charlemagne’s legacy a reality check tells you that the EU couldn’t fight its way out a of a paper bag.

If there’s any heavy lifting to be done militarily in this crisis it won’t be from the EU, France or Germany that’s for sure.

In the Cuban missile crisis Kruschev put missiles in Cuba to force the US to remove it’s missiles from Turkey. We need to learn from that and put boots on the ground in Moldova. Any 2 EU nations plus the UK.

I see we have different viewpoints, fair enough. i absolutely admire the Ukranian defence and completely support extreme sanctions and weapon shipments. But for me it isn’t worth going to potential nuclear war with an unhinged, unstable maniac with his finger hovering over the button. Our red line has always been the Polish/Baltic border not the Ukranian one.

Bravo. My position too.

I have just started reading a book by a Brit, with Russian family, who decided to work there. He was watching Putin on TV, at a big table firing questions at his nervous regional governors. He though “I’ve seen this before”, then it dawned on him, gangster movies, where the top mafia boss questions his junior gangster underlings. Putin sees himself as the top godfather. You cannot show him any weakness, or he will see you as prey.