The UK promised drones for Ukraine in May, where are they?

On May 15th, Rishi Sunak made a startling announcement. His government would provide Storm Shadow, an air launched cruise missile, to Ukraine.

The commitment was a serious increase to Ukraine’s standoff capabilities that are already paying dividends for the Ukrainian military. 

Storm Shadow was not the only promise Sunak made. Nestled into that announcement was a commitment to supply “hundreds” of attack drones for Ukraine to use.

Written by Marcel Plichta, a former Analyst at the U.S. Department of Defense and PhD candidate at the University of St Andrews. He has written on the use of drones in the Ukraine conflict for the Atlantic Council, The Telegraph, and the Spectator.  

This article is the opinion of the authors and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines. 

Details were limited but the range (200km or more), number of drones (hundreds), and their role (attack), suggests that Sunak is referring to a fixed-wing one-way attack drone similar to those Ukraine uses to strike Russian occupied Crimea and Russia itself.

Tactical drones like quadcopters usually do not have a range in the hundreds of kilometers, and the UK would not be able to deliver hundreds of advanced reusable drones in the near term.

Production and delivery of attack drones should be a short-term priority for aiding Ukraine. Making and sending a large quantity of inexpensive drones will not impact the UK’s readiness and will both degrade the Russian military and support UK drone manufacturers. 

The drones were set to arrive “in the coming months,” but there has been no subsequent reporting about attack drone transfers, nor any indication that they are in development. The UK was reportedly interested in developing one way attack drones in early 2023, but only for prototypes that used methods like 3D printing to make the airframes. Given that the UK works with manufacturers like QinetiQ UK that can quickly adapt existing airframes and drones for Ukraine, the lack of focus is costing valuable time.

Delays in making and sending drones to Ukraine is all the more curious because it does not threaten U.K. national security. Sending inexpensive drones is much easier for the military to account for than sending a dwindling number of tanks and armored vehicles from storage. Sending drones is also not escalatory given that the provision of Storm Shadow, a much more capable weapon, did not lead to a significant Russian response. 

Ukraine has an immediate need for attack drones with long range. For much of the conflict, Ukraine could not hit Russian depots, headquarters, and airfields behind the front line. The sudden ability to strike those sites regularly creates a serious dilemma for Russia as its leadership chooses between keeping most air defense near the front lines to deter Ukraine’s aircraft, or diverting some air defense systems to protect key facilities in the rear. 

Ukraine developed and used several different kinds of one-way attack drones against Russia, but they are struggling to scale up domestic production. Ukrainian drones struck airfields across Russia in August, but a limited number of drones prevents the air campaign from reaching its full potential. Deliveries of British drones eases the short-term pressure on Ukrainian drone makers as they establish mass production. Even if the UK requires that their drones only be used against military targets in occupied Ukraine, that frees up Ukrainian-made systems for use in longer range attacks. There are plenty of valuable targets within occupied territory, including the Black Sea Fleet vessels stationed in Sevastopol.   

With sufficient long range drones, Ukraine could match the tempo of Russia’s drone campaign against Ukrainian cities. Since September 2022, Russia has used approximately 2,000 Iranian made Shahed drones against Ukraine’s cities, energy grid, and grain silos. Russia can maintain a high tempo of attack with dozens of drones because it has a much larger inventory than Ukraine. While it was ineffective at forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table, Moscow’s campaign creates huge air defense dilemmas for Ukraine and spurred assistance with air defence from NATO countries. Ukraine hopes to put Russia in the same position, but without the same number of international backers and a focus on military targets. 

Producing drones stands to benefit the U.K. as much as it does Ukraine. It boosts the UK’s drone industry, but making a low-cost drone with long range also has potential for export and use in training and targeting. Many NATO countries do not have the budget to procure and maintain a large fleet of missiles or other sophisticated standoff weapons. Attack drones, however, are cheap enough for smaller NATO countries to acquire and demonstrably effective at imposing costs of conventional adversaries like Russia.

The UK military will also need similar platforms for training purposes since cheap one-way attack drones are a growing threat to naval operations and expeditionary warfare. Countries like Poland and Turkey have companies like the WB Group and Baykar that are investing heavily in drones with an eye for export. UK firms need not be left behind. 

It is important to hold to government to its promise to Ukraine. Kyiv demonstrated that it can use long-range drones to great effect, and that it can use them in occupied and Russian territory without civilian casualties. Forcing Russia to move their air defence to secure every facility within 700km of the front will make it safer for Ukrainian pilots and harder for Russia to blunt Ukraine’s offensives.