Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman has challenged assumptions that Russia is making decisive gains in Ukraine, telling MPs that despite a renewed offensive launched in late 2023, Moscow’s progress has been minimal and its political objectives remain far out of reach.
Speaking before the Defence Committee on 1 April, Freedman said, “If you look at much of the commentary, it takes for granted that the Russians have the initiative… [but] since the latest Russian offensive started… it’s gained very little.” While Russia has captured some small towns, he said, “as a percentage of Ukrainian territory, it’s quite small.”
Reflecting on President Putin’s earlier expectations, Freedman suggested the Kremlin had anticipated greater results following delays in U.S. aid to Ukraine in 2023. “There was a big expectation that the Ukrainians would be struggling… and I think that also reflects the position [Putin] took in June 2024 when the current Russian negotiating position was set out. They’ve achieved very little since then.”
Despite suffering “pain and difficulty,” Freedman noted Ukraine’s resilience through the winter campaign and warned that Russia’s current barrage of attacks on civilian infrastructure may indicate preparations for another major offensive.
However, he remained doubtful of Moscow’s ability to meet its goals: “They’re really not in a position to achieve militarily the political objectives that Putin set out.” While Russia controls most of Luhansk, he said, “to take Zaporizhzhia or Kherson is probably beyond them.”
Freedman also warned that any erosion in U.S. support could tilt the balance, stressing, “We shouldn’t underplay how tough this has been for both the Ukrainians and the Russians… if the Ukrainians are not getting the same sort of support from the United States… it becomes more difficult.”
Turning to diplomacy, he noted that while a ceasefire could give Ukraine breathing space, Russia has been “adamantly against a ceasefire without a political settlement,” and its current demands remain far-reaching. “The Russians’ position is that they want these four provinces—they’re now part of the Russian constitution… and they want a subjugated Ukraine, disarmed, neutralized, not part of NATO or the EU.”
Freedman concluded that “the best description of where we are at the moment is not much further along than we were a year ago—or even a year and a half ago.”
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This is why Trump is so very frustrating, the west could have beaten Russia and probably caused Putin to loose power if it had stayed the course and supported Ukraine, unfortunately the west again showed its core weakness and that is to political warfare levered against a will which is quite frankly pathetic..
It’s now really only the size of the western alliance and its ability to win set piece battles that is acting as any form of deterrent.. and as it’s showing its weakness to being politically splintered that size is now no longer the deterrent it was and as for set piece battles our enemies are firmly in the camp that you can loss any number of battles and still win against a politically weak enemy.. the US is the prime example.. its pretty much won almost every battle its fought in the last 79 years and yet losses almost every war.
Hey, we kicked ass in Grenada and GW I! 😂😁 Somewhat more seriously, not certain that a largely static war of attrition is the worst possible outcome. Many forget RU has the largest declared nuclear inventory, and a despotic leader who may well be tempted to utilize it, depending upon tactical circumstances.
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the reality is russia is still making gains, though it has not achieved a decisive breakthrough, and yes the pace has slowed down recently, winter, who knew !