The United States has not yet developed the new concept of warfare required to exploit advances in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems and other emerging technologies, General David Petraeus has warned, calling for extensive changes to American force structures, training, procurement and military institutions.
Speaking at the House of Lords on 1 September, the former commander of US and coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan said technological superiority alone would not provide a lasting military advantage. While describing the American innovation sector as the most dynamic in the world, Petraeus argued that US defence institutions are not changing rapidly enough to exploit the technologies being developed.
He said: “The United States confronts a somewhat different challenge. Our innovation ecosystem remains the most dynamic in the world. Advances in artificial intelligence, software, autonomous systems, advanced manufacturing, and other emerging technologies continue at extraordinary speed.”
Petraeus added: “Our challenge is therefore not principally one of technological innovation. It is one of transforming our military institutions rapidly enough to exploit that innovation.”
He told peers that the United States was already investing heavily in emerging military capabilities, but argued that purchasing increasingly advanced equipment without corresponding changes to military organisations would not be sufficient.
Petraeus said: “The United States is investing heavily in emerging capabilities, and those investments are necessary—though not nearly sufficient. No nation will secure enduring strategic advantage simply by purchasing better technology. And the United States has not yet developed the revolutionary new concept of warfare this moment requires, much less begun the vast resulting changes in force structure, organization, training, leader education, procurement, and personnel.”
He compared the scale of the changes he believes are now required with reforms undertaken by the US military during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Petraeus recalled that in 2006 the Army and Marine Corps developed new counterinsurgency doctrine, reorganised forces, changed training and professional military education, accelerated acquisition, adjusted personnel policies and introduced systems for rapidly capturing and distributing operational lessons.
He said: “Those reforms were significant. But they were modest compared with what is required now. The challenge before us is of an altogether different order—and greater urgency. It calls for swift and revolutionary institutional transformation.”
Petraeus said every major defence institution would need to be considered against the demands of a new concept of warfare. He identified force organisation, leadership education, formation training, procurement, engagement with industry, recruitment of technological expertise and the exploitation of operational lessons among the areas requiring simultaneous change.
He said: “Every major defense institution must be reconsidered through the lens of the new concept of warfare. How we organize forces, educate leaders, train formations, procure capabilities, engage industry, cultivate technological talent, and capture and exploit operational lessons will all have to evolve together.”
Part of that process would involve reconsidering established force structures and equipment whose roles are being affected by surveillance, precision strike and unmanned systems. Petraeus said political leaders would have to challenge established assumptions while military leaders reconsider organisations that had served successfully for generations.
He said: “None of this will be easy. Political leaders will have to challenge long-established assumptions; military leaders will have to rethink organizations and force structures that have served successfully for generations; acquisition systems will have to operate at the pace of technological change; and industrial capacity, innovation, education, and national resilience will all have to be treated as elements of national security.”
Petraeus also warned of resistance to the changes, saying: “Powerful institutional, industrial, and legislative constituencies will resist changes that threaten established structures, priorities, and interests.”
The former CIA director said the starting point should be a new concept for conducting warfare rather than simply another cycle of equipment procurement. “Our first priority, therefore, should not simply be to acquire new technologies, critically important though that is. Our first priority should be to develop an entirely new concept of warfare. Only then can we identify the institutional changes required to execute it successfully.”
