The bulk of Putin’s ground forces remain more than 30km to the north of Kyiv their advance having been slowed by Ukrainian forces defending Hostomel airfield, a key Russian objective for day one of the conflict.

The UK’s Ministry of Defence has posted an intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine.

“The bulk of Putin’s ground forces remain more than 30km to the north of Kyiv their advance having been slowed by Ukrainian forces defending Hostomel airfield, a key Russian objective for day one of the conflict. Heavy fighting continues around Chernihiv and Kharkiv however both cities remain under Ukrainian control.

Logistical failures and staunch Ukrainian resistance continue to frustrate the Russian advance. Despite continued attempts to suppress details of the conflict from the Russian population, the Russian Armed Forces have for the first time been forced to acknowledge suffering casualties.”

What happened over the weekend?

26th February

  • Heavy fighting was reported to the south of Kyiv, near the city of Vasylkiv.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff claimed that a Ukrainian Su-27 fighter had shot down a Russian Il-76 transport plane carrying paratroopers near Vasylkiv.
  • A second Russian Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane was shot down near Bila Tserkva, 85 kilometres (50 miles) south of Kyiv, according to two American officials with direct knowledge of conditions on the ground in Ukraine. However, no evidence verifying either of the events was released.
  • Around 03:00, more than 48 explosions in 30 minutes were reported around Kyiv, as the Ukrainian military was reported to be fighting near the CHP-6 power station in the northern neighbourhood of Troieshchyna.
  • The BBC reported the attack may be an attempt to cut off electricity to the city. Heavy fighting was reported near the Kyiv Zoo and the Shuliavka neighbourhood.
  • Early on 26 February, the Ukrainian military said it had repelled a Russian attack on an army base located on Peremohy Avenue, a main road in Kyiv; it also claimed to have repelled a Russian assault on the city of Mykolaiv on the Black Sea.

27th February

  • Overnight, a gas pipeline outside Kharkiv was reported to have been blown up by a Russian attack, while an oil depot in the village of Kriachky near Vasylkiv ignited after being hit by missiles.
  • Heavy fighting near the Vasylkiv airbase prevented firefighters from tackling the blaze.
  • The Presidential Office claimed that the Zhuliany Airport was also bombed.
  •  Russian-backed separatists in Luhansk province claimed an oil terminal in the town of Rovenky was hit by a Ukrainian missile.
  • Later, President Putin directed the Russian Defence Minister and Chief of the General Staff to put Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces in a “special regime of combat duty.”
  • Several Russian banks were removed from SWIFT, and Turkey proclaimed that a state of war exists in the Black Sea, allowing it to intercept ships of the Russian Navy.
  • The European Union banned Russian aircraft from its airspace.
George Allison
George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
Twitter

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR

176 COMMENTS

  1. Looks like Putin is preparing for the big push. Ukraine has 15 active nuclear reactors supplying half of their electricity. I hope they don’t hit one of them or a subsidiary system.

    • The Russians did claim today they’d seized the largest power station in Europe – 6 reactors – but the Ukrainians have denied this.
      I could see them trying to cut power to Kyiv to make it as uncomfortable as possible for civilians to stay there. The Russians have said there’s a open corridor that civilians can leave along, which suggests they want the city as clear if people as possible before a major onslaught.

      • It seems to far hes been avoiding just out right destruction regarding moving forward, Kiev has a lot of culturally significant buildings for the Russians and I doubt it would go down well destroying these.

        From what ive read about the idea he could just roll in, remove Zelensky and the population would roll over to a unified support of Russia and a new government also makes sense that they have avoided widespread destruction of civilian buildings.

    • Maybe.

      It is going to be a push into a Ukrainian airforce with more ground attack capabilities. And increasing confidence in their tactics.

      I would *guess* that the gifted aircraft, arriving soon, have laser designation capabilities?

      The other thing is that the logistics ‘problems’ have probably been deliberately created.

      The Ukrainians know where the seizures counts are going due to UK/US eyes.

      They can then calculate, as they have the same kit, where it will run out of juice.

      They can then make sure the areas petrol stations and farms are dry of diesel.

      It is pretty easy to take out incoming tankers.

      Then you have mission killed tanks that you can take out at will.

      Might not be the case but it is a low risk strategy?

    • I doubt it. Ironically thanks to Russia Kyiv is generously provided with lots of soviet era deep nuclear era bunkers. The population will be safe from shelling. They will have petrol generators and warm clothing. The warmer weather is coming. The West will continue to funnel military and humanitarian provisions from Poland; bit like the Berlin airlift. Most likely we will see a month or two of attrition and then I expect to see Russian forces get fed up and go home for Easter with the family.

  2. One fear I have is the possibility of Putin aiding terrorist groups to hit the West as part of his offensive against punitive sanctions and other measures? Note, I said Putin, as to label Russian as a part of this madness is to ignore the agonies they are going through too! As I’ve said before, only the Russian people can stop Putin’s lunacy.

    • I don’t think that those around him would do that.

      Part of the reason that this is looking increasingly fraught is that I suspect that those around him as looking at the ‘what if this fails’ outcome.

      Nobody Russian can have been blind to the St Catherines hall fiasco and the fact that the rest of the senior leadership team and not 100% on board with this?

      Exist strategies involving staying alive and going the minimum to look credible might well be at play here as well as minimising war crimes.

      If the Ukrainians hang on for another week then Putin is finished as the Russian body count will mount.

      Even Russia cannot keep loosing 20+ tanks a day. I know we say that they have 4000 of them but I would guess half of them simply don’t work to any decent standard. So he physically runs out of tanks in 100 days at this rate. And the rate of decimation will only increase **if** the aircraft that are being donated can drop LGB’s from very high level that can be illuminated by SF on the ground.

      Well before he runs out of tanks the tank crews and commanders will find that they are ‘unable to get their tanks running’ due to spares problems i.e. they don’t want to die in a mobile coffin that is totally vulnerable to Ukranian weapons.

    • I agree. We must not sink into a sort of re-run of ‘the Hun’ or ‘Boshe’. It wouldn’t be justified at all; chiefly a section of Putin’s nationalist nutters are cheering this aggression. I hope also the Ukranians retain strict control of their P.O.W.’s; any ‘social media’ imagery a la Abu Ghraib of ill treatment or worse of Russian soldiers would make support wither somewhat.

      That said, I venture that the training the Brits have be providing sine 2014 and the Annexation of Crimea, is playing out well. Alas, I can’t see the Ukrainians winning but the price they are extracting from Putin is magnificent.

      • Sadly, atrocities happen with nearly all desperate conflicts, but Ukraine must refrain from destructive media pictures of reprisals. I know it’s easily said when the temptation to wreak revenge is laid before you.

  3. My biggest fear is that, in frustration at their lack of progress, Putin ramps up the onslaught and Kyiv becomes another Grozny. The civilian death toll in Chechnya was terrible.

  4. EU will be buying Soviet era fighter jets from its members and donating them to the Ukranians. First time EU has ever provided military assistance to a foreign country.

    • EU like Germany, France playing catch up after being shamed into action. Aircraft are not toys you can pick up and just throw to your friends – they are bound to be different to standard Ukraine types.

      • There were plenty of Ukrainian pilots who flew the MiGs.

        Given they have not had many planes from early on they might have been sent abroad?

        Maybe the Ukrainian pilots who don’t have aircraft have actually been training with say the Poles.

        And maybe the Poles have added a few extras to their MiGs such as precision strike?

        Maybe not?

        I suspect we will see very soon as they take out the MRLS and Hyperbaric weapons to save the civilian casualties.

        Has the inbound armoured column got anywhere near Kyiv? Or has it run out of diesel?

        The one thing I am sure about is that it is not going to take much to fundamentally change the defensive / offensive balance provided the Ukrainians avoid pitched battles and focus on picking units off in their own time which appears to be very very effective militarily and from a world opinion point of view.

    • Has it been revealed who is selling what to the EU?

      Surely it can only be the most eastern ex soviet members which would then leave them hugely under equipped?

      • MiG-29’s from Slovakia, Bulgaria and Poland, the Slovakian ones have been modernized to NATO standards while the Bulgarian and Polish ones are more stock. Possibly some SU-25 as well. The countries are all due to receive new F-16/F-35 aircraft over the next 2-3 years.

        • They might be getting planes but do they have pilots? I think the West should send in our little Blue men to give them a hand.

          After all how can you tell who is flying the jet….

        • Slovakia and Poland on the border with the Ukraine, an agreement must exist in the background to move Nato forces in to cover the aircraft they would be releasing and for those forces to stay at least until they have newer/replacement equipment in place.

  5. The Ukrainians certainly are putting up stiff resistance, but why isn’t artillery or the airforce hitting the columns of equipment been slowed down, Russia doesn’t appear to have air superiority?

          • That chaps finger is curled round the trigger, a situation only appropriate if you’re intending to fire. Its a little pedantic given the situation out there but no one wants a negligent discharge with potential casualties. Imagine if a mortar lands nearby and thet chap isn’t used to that kind of thing. Finger tightens on the trigger and someone falls over.
            There are relatively few accidental firing incidents in the UK because of exhaustive drills and training. The Ukrainians won’t have had time for all that

    • I see what you mean, I have only had training with pistols but that’s an accident waiting to happen.

      But I guess when your nations at threat of being removed from history, the risks you take are different.

      • He appears to be trying to fit the magazine. If he has just picked it up, it’s likely not capable of firing at this point. He may not have even been given any ammo yet (would you hand out already loaded weapons to a bunch of civilians). Looking at the bright side, he has at least found the trigger & the magazine & appears to know which is the dangerous end. Plenty of civilians in Western Europe would be lucky to get that far.

  7. Question: with many of the worlds nations banning Russian overflight is it or would it be possible to ban all Russian flagged or ships going to Russian ports from EU, UK, NATO, and Commonwealth waters? When I say waters I mean out to the 200 mile zone not just the 3-12 mile zone.

    I would like to see all sanctions overflight bans, resriction of sea lanes etc kept in place until the borders of Ukraine are fully restored, that Russian gold reserves that are siezed be used to rebuild the damage that they have done to the Ukraine and that Russia sorts out it government.

    As for the peace talks today if real I hope that the President of the Ukraine will not be held as a hostage or meet an unexpected whoops a daisy.

    • I can certainly see the old Cold War ‘proxy wars’ rearing their heads again as a way of both side undermining each other.

      That said, Russia might just find itself going into direct conflict with China if it tries to undermine areas the Chinese are active in.

      They won’t take kindly to having their sphere of influence interrupted by Russian meddling. It does make me wonder if China will move to distance themselves from Russia, as I am sure they are watching the crippling international action against Russia with great interest.

      Certainly a pause for thought is called for on China’s behalf.

      I note with interest the ‘Indian position’ and the lack of condemnation of it…

      It’s time to pressure India to decide what side they are on!

      • The Chinese issue is a curious one as to how it will play out.

        They didn’t Veto the UN vote which was very surprising, however they will see a huge profit opportunity in assisting the Russian economy under sanctions.

        However if them helping then starts causing restrictions for China itself we could see them distancing themselves hugely.

        India also is on the fence and could go either way.

      • He hasn’t, a defence minister has.

        he may be a comedian but he isn’t joking around. Also happens to be the voice of Paddington Bear in the Ukraine dubbed versions of the recent films. Weird but true.

      • Where do you reckon Putin is hiding now? Surely he’s a target for someone also?
        Hope the Ukrainian airforce and ground forces can take out all those Russian columns before they get too close to Kiev or anywhere else with large populations.
        The West also needs to keep its eyes on Kaliningrad sitting quietly behind their backs.

        • In cold war times, the Soviets had a cyanide spray into the face of the target person. Killed them in a way that suggested heart attack. If the invasion of Ukraine causes disaster in Russia, expect the dear leader Putin to have a convenient heart attack.

        • Yeah, I don’t think we’re going to see much of Putin outside. Just in grandiose rooms that could be anywhere in Russia.

          As for the columns: as long as the front is stalled and the supplies to the back are regularly harassed; I don’t think they are going to be problem and even become an issue for the Russians.

          Let’s hope it rains heavily too. That should get the Russians literally stuck in the mud.

      • Maybeva crazy thought, but if Ukraine is getting the upper hand then why does he even need to go to these talks. There might be a chance historically to get rid of two bad old birds with one stone. Keep on 🇺🇦, strength to you, the West is right behind you.

        • I would imagine because they know what comes next ( which is Russia using mass indiscriminate fires on towns and cities ( they did it in Chechnya).

          If they can negotiate something that saves Ukraine as an independent sovereign nation, while they have stalled Russian forces and may have Putin a bit rattled they should do. After all Ukraine is not fighting a geopolitical battle against Russia ( that’s NATO’s job). The Ukrainian President only has to think of preserving Ukraine as an independent sovereign nation and reducing Ukrainian casualties.

          Nato needs to be thinking about how it removes Putin not Ukraine.

        • It is always better to talk and save lives that way than by paying in blood. What good is winning militarily if your country is flattened and needs years to rebuild shattered lives and infrastructure.

          No shame in talking even if it is posturing. If you can find a saving face way out of a situation then go for it.

    • Hi Ron,

      The legal position of the 200miles zones is that they are not national waters. They are areas were the boardering country has control over natural resources only. National Waters are limited to 12miles. Of course China inparticular is trying to rewrite the law by force in the SCS…

      Russian aircraft are still flying into Kaliningrad via St Petersburg and the Baltic Sea. A considerable detour.

      Cheers CR

      • Definitely, it had echoes of the start of WW1 if he had gone himself!

        Putin was never going to turn up in person so why should he.

    • Great. Glad the NALWs are proving as useful as we suspected/ knew they would be against Russian quality armoured vehicles.
      Manufactured in Belfast. Hopefully we have ordered thousands more so UK can donate more batches to the Ukraine.

    • Imagery I have seen of knocked out Russian convoys suggest ambush tactics with man portable anti-materiel weapons. Of course, some of these targets might have run out of fuel and easy to hit. Much more of this very effective tactic I suspect the Russians will turn to large area bombing of cities and have done with it.

      • Although that will cause great civilian casualties I don’t think that will defeat Ukraine on its own. The Germans tried that at Stalingrad in August 42 and in flattening the place created a perfect defensive position their armour could not get into.

      • Or as I posted above been run out of fuel elaborately by removing steerable fuel from their corridor and radius and then attacking the tankers which are not armoured.

        No fuel = mission kill.

          • No one really knows but I think it could be argued he’s sent in the newest recruits with the oldest kit to soften things up and use up arms then may mobilise the more experienced forces with newer kit.

            Probably didn’t anticipate the west re-arming Ukraine at the rate it has though!

          • Those Paras and Spetnaz that got slaughtered in Holomel were by Russian standards top of the line. Or rather were !

  9. A quick question. What has France done to help Ukraine? I’m thinking here of weapons etc.

    I’ve looked on the net and to be honest have found zilch. Even Germany has had to fess up but France seems to be almost completely silent (except for complete waffle by their foreign minister about how they will respond without weakness).

    Disgraceful IMHO.

    • Looking online there is reference to military and civilian aid, I just think it is coming late like the rest of the EU where UK/USA ( as usual ) get on with things early.

      • You have more faith DM in the French than I do!

        I suspect they are trying to get the EU to pay for it. Recall the Greece bank bailout – the most exposed banks by far were French (with Germany coming a distant second). By getting an EU bailout based on EU contribution size France paid a lot less for the bailout and countries like Spain and Italy (which had little debt exposure) a lot more.

        • I don’t have faith in their politics, I’m a Brexiteer after all we have seen enough of that crap.

          Do I have faith in the French as a people once the political crap is done? Absolutely! They are fellow Europeans and in war will step up to fight like we do.

          • I agree Daniele,

            Even though the UK and France have had some serious differences of late our armed forces continue to work together very effectively in Mali, although I believe that UK assistance is non-combat.

            Having said that I believe we have a small number of troops in a peacekeeping (combat?) role with the UN in Mali. All very complicated…

            Anyway, typical of Western allies our leaders are quick to squabble while the people who do the real work carry on talking and keep the national friendship going until the so called grown ups remember they are indeed supposed to be grown up!

            Cheers CR

    • It is disgraceful. Macron went over to Moscow, acting like the voice of Europe and NATO. Believed Putins promises and now has custard all over his face. French inactivity is classic. The French armed forces are high quality and powerful just their political leaders who are spineless.

      • by custard, I’m sure you meant “creme anglaise” .Your point is well made though – French leadership-shades of 39 /40 all over again

    • What Macron appears to have managed is to wind Putin up no end.

      After the initial 6 hour meeting between them Macron is bragging about how he’s made huge progress and assurances have been given. Press conference a few hours later Putin is saying how he’s had 6 hours of his life wasted and followed up with the first threat of nuclear war.

      Macron, outplayed in every single way.

      • Macron has made Neville Chamberlain look like a superstar. I actually have sympathy for Chamberlain – and he bought the UK an extra 18 months or so to rearm. Macron in comparison got what – a day or two??

  11. Now if belarus gets involved I wonder how the west will react to that. NATO nations have made it clear they will not go to War with Russia, but Belarus, will NATO Push against the CSTO and test it. I would think not to be honest.

    • Hi Jonathan,

      Bloody hope not! I think Putin would treat any incursion into Belarus as an attack on Russia. Not good.

      Frankly, whlist I have little time for our politicians even I don’t think they are that stupid! I do, however, fear that Putin might fire is nukes first. Some of the comments he has made over the years and is actions suggest he would. I believe he sees Russia as being incomplete and is determined to rebuild the old Tzarist / Soviet empire. No wonder the Baltic States have been calling the West to action…

      CR

      • I don’t think NATO will push against the CSTO and take military action against Belarus as I agree it would escalate.

        Yes I worry to about where and how are Putin will go even if the west actively avoids conflict.

        I think he’s gone beyond a point of no return for him. He has to win or he will be torn down and I suspect that with the politics of a totalitarian state that would mean a trial and execution at best a quit removal at worst.

        Like many of this type of leader before him I would suspect he would see his nation in ruins before he falls from power.

        • Trouble is what is a win for him now?

          He can only have 1 aim in mind, remove the current government and take over Kiev but it will split the Ukraine, would taking part of the country be a win?

          Its been incredibly costly for him just to get this far hes never going to be able to take the entire country as that would never be a win just based on the losses he will sustain.

          • I suspect he has a different view to us, I don’t think he sees Ukraine as a nation at all. It’s just a bit of Russia that needs to be bright back into the fold. I do think he’s made a massive miscalculation around Ukrainian national identity.

            All in all I think even if he destroys the Ukrainian armed forces and takes the present government down he’s heading for a bloody set of constant civil uprisings combined with an ongoing civil war between ethnic groups.

            So at best he’s getting a version of Northern Ireland During the troubles ( only with 20x population size) at worse he will have a nation with a totally shattered infrastructure that is ungovernable ( a European Iraq or Afghanistan).

          • The Northern Ireland comparison is not a way I had looked at it but yes you are right, on a drastically larger scale both in numbers to control and area of land to police. Russia really doesnt have the capability to do it without sacrificing security over a much larger area.

          • The tragedy is that many Russians/Ukrainians have cousins in either/both nation/s. It would be like England fighting Scotland. We may irritate each other, but no sensible person wants to pull the trigger on their cousins.

  12. This war is all about Putin. There’s an interesting theory in psychology that destructive leaders like Adolf Hitler and Saddam Hussain are basically on an extended, self-destructive, slow suicide, destroying both themselves and their own nations in the process. They refuse to see, or to accept, their own mistakes. They end up blaming their own population for their failures. When Putin says words to the effect that ‘if there is no Russia there will be no world left’, he’s really talking about himself. If he’s a gonner he’s threatening to take the whole world with him. This is pretty alarming stuff, if you believe it’s plausible. Leaders like Putin inevitably believe their own bullshit. If things don’t go well with his war, there will be a cull in the Russian government / elite. The main purpose of democracy is to get rid of leaders like Putin before they can become a danger to their own people. In 10, or 20 years time, something like this could happen in China. It’s a sobering thought. Anyway, the Ukrainians have done themselves proud during this invasion! This war might well have the same demoralising effect on Russia as the Iraq / Afghanistan wars have had on the west.

    • Hi TypewriterMonkey,

      I agree that there is a real parallel between Hitler and Putin. They were both involved in a ‘war’ that their countries lost. They both felt betrayed by history and they both became dictators and they both went to war gradually raising the stakes until the West reacted.

      I find the parallels rather unnerving and the idea that someone as potentially as unstable as Putin has his finger on the Nuclear Option. I think he might just be angry enough to launch…

      This brief analysis from the BBC gives plenty of food for thought.

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60551140

      CR

      • It is a worry. You can negotiate with someone who’s twisted and rational, but nutjobs are scary because they’re unpredictable. Let’s hope he switches over to decaffeinated… Or something :/

    • Good cartoon along these Hitler vs Putin comparison lines circulating in Ukraine.
      The punchline says ‘ can we just skip to the end where they shoot themselves’. 🙂

  13. Once again Turkey taking the risk by blocking Russian black sea access despite good economic links with Russia. Turkish TB2 drones hit Russian invasion convoys hard and slowed down the invasion force, Yet we get countries like Germany that blocked military aid to Ukraine initially get praised lol Turkey risked Russian relation when Putin openly complained about Turkish drones sent to Ukraine while many NATO member states were afraid to send any serious weapons. Putin understands strength only

    • So Turkish made drones which o believe Ukraine had purchased a number of these before the conflict?

      Western made anti tank weapons and anti air equipment.

      So what’s the point? Turkey hasn’t gone in and started destroying Russian forces as you are wording it.

      • Don’t even try to twist my words !
        Turkish made TB2 drones operated by Ukraine have destroyed Russian convoys the Ukrainian defence forces released the videos. Turkey licensed the drones to Ukraine also. It’s building for Ukraine Corvettes also. No country has greater defence links with Ukraine than Turkey! You just can’t stand the idea Erdogan has more balls than Johnson. He confronted the Russians In Syria Libya Azerbaijan and now TB2 which many of you claimed stand no chance against the Russians, they are destroying Russian convoys and troops claimed by Ukraine itself . The entire eastern Europe wants this drones Poland purchased 25 of them already . I think after Ukraine sales will go through the roof

    • James wrote:

       Turkish TB2 drones hit Russian invasion convoys hard and slowed down the invasion force, Yet we get countries like Germany that blocked military aid to Ukraine initially get praised lol Turkey risked Russian relation when Putin openly complained about Turkish drones sent to Ukraine while many NATO member states were afraid to send any serious weapons. 

      Those Turkish made Drones were purchased by the Ukraine for Cash. The Weapons sent to the Ukraine by:
      US
      UK
      Estonia
      Lativa
      Poland
      Lithunia
      Sweden
      Finland
      Luxemburg (sent 100 MBTLAWs)

      were handed over for free.

      • Turkey gave Ukraine over 35 million in military aid which it used to purchase weapons from Turkey . Besides Turkey sold Ukraine most priced weapons the TB2 drones ! What valuable weapons have the UK sold to Ukraine other some stinger etc weapons to defend now? No heavy weapons at all! Plus all of them just barking while Erdogan has flown in drones under Russian noses past months . Ukraine itself says Turkey has done more for our defence than any other country. Ukraine leader is more on the phone with Erdogan than any other leader !

        • Dont twist your words now you are saying ‘Turkey has FLOWN IN’ as in Turkey themselves are doing it all on behalf of Ukraine. Word things correctly to start with then dont start denying what you are saying.

          Also I believe the UK has ‘given’ the Ukraine the weapons that have been supplied, along with no doubt invaluable training over the past 8 years as opposed to making a business like Turkey profiteering from the situation.

          Lets be realistic Turkey isnt in Libya on the proviso of opposing Russia its trying to secure natural resources nothing more. Like its trying to bully Greece in the Med oh and when is it planning on end its illegal occupation of Cyprus?

  14. I read it took the US/allies three weeks to take baghdad, as supply lines take time to build, limiting the speed of an advance. So 4 days in is seriously early days.

          • Will they be any better equipped?

            Will they be any better lead?

            Will they fight smarter?

            Those are the real questions.

            Yet more T72&T80 won’t make any difference as the Ukrainians have the tactics and munitions to take those out.

          • Honestly I have zero idea what the forces of Belarus are capable of.

            Do they have any real world experience of recent conflicts?

            If they just roll in under Russian command to add to the forces they will no doubt end up in the same scenario of being stalled and taken out in big numbers.

            Concern it’s another country joining in so will a other country decide that’s a green light to join Ukraine?

          • Neither have I TBH.

            But I’d be amazed if their kit was better.

            They will come under Russian leadership and their tactics will be the same WWII tactics.

            Without air superiority it is unwinable for Russia.

            Next 5-7 days are critical if Russia continues to get hammered at this rate Vlad will have an accident / stroke / retire….

          • Let’s hope for one of the last 3!!! Radioactive Vodka sounds a fitting way to go.

            Good you brought it up, how and why has Russia not got easy/defining air superiority in this conflict?

            Ukraine has very few higher level anti air systems and the Russian Air Force is massive in comparison. I don’t get how they are controlling Ukrainian airspace especially in the east and south.

          • A few hundred Stingers may have been all it took

            A few planes lost in the early hours and it is not Russian airforce friendly.

            They don’t really have massive inventories of LGB so they are forced to use low level dumb bomb and rocket attacks.

            Talking to some Russian friends they speculate that a lot of the issue was corruption. Advanced weapons were ordered money was paid but only a few were ever delivered. The kleptocrats had the rest.

          • The lack of capability for high level bombing would then make sense. Crazy so much corruption exists!

          • I read that there is no real Belarusian command structure above brigade level they do what russian military tells them to do.

          • Or start a drive toward Lviv – unlikely. Belorus is a conscript army. Recruits serve for 18 months. Old Soviet era equipment and emphasis on defence. Large home guard. They would probably get lost after a day in combat.

          • Lets hope they dont enter the theatre at all and if they do as you say they wont be of much use.

          • Russian troops are now massed in large numbers north of Kiev. I believe Putin when he says he does not want to harm civilians. I believe the handful of artillery strikes on flats and one hospital have been gunner errors. What Putin is trying to do is re-instate what happened on 1686 when the Moscow Patriarch of the Orthodox church annexed the Kyiv Patriarch. He does not want to level Kyiv.
            In his mind he really believes that he is protecting, caring for and re-unifying the Russian people. I think Putins original plan was for Kyiv to be taken by light forces ‘unopposed’. In his delusion he will be surprised by the resistance; but he will persist in the belief that ‘history’ is on his side. He will increase force levels until his objective is achieved or he is stopped.

          • Totally agree, the number of forces outside and on the way down to Kiev now is realistically unfortunately something the Ukrainians are probably not going to be able to hold out against.

            Some more destruction of buildings is happening today, Kharkiv just had a large government building completely destroyed in what looked like a targeted strike. A colleague used to work in the building it was a tax and admin office not a military target.

          • They can’t supply forces in country properly now! So any extra strain on the system is not going to go down well hopefully.

          • At the current rate, it just looks like most of them would get stuck in a massive traffic jam.

            Then, if they’re lucky, the traffic jam might extend long enough to overlap with their supply lines and be able to defend them. But in that case, how would the supplies be moved down the line? From soldier to soldier?

        • It was reported that it is less than 70 miles from Belarus border to Kyiv. Whereas according to google maps Baghdad is 550km direct from Kuwait border.

    • Zelenskyy isn’t there. Any why would he given the risk and that Putin isn’t going to bother turning up.

      It wouldn’t have been hard for you to find that out.

  16. Given the way Germany & others, have done a 180 U turn over Swift & supplying weapons, I think it is time to look at offering Ukraine a NATO guaranteed safe haven around Lviv/Lvov in the West of the country. That would show those around Putin, how he has misjudged the whole situation.
    I would not lift a single Western sanction until Russia gives up its veto on the UN security council. They have lost all moral right to it.
    Likewise, they should cut their nuclear arsenal to 350 warheads. They can no longer be trusted with thousands of warheads. Not one sanction lifted until they do.
    The IOC & Fifa need to be leaned on hard, even if it means arresting their top officials & confiscating their funds. They need to announce an immediate 10 year ban on any Russian team playing abroad. No pretend unofficial Russian teams either. If Putin uses even a single tactical nuke in anger, it should be a minimum of a 40 year ban.
    If Putin uses a nuke, he should face an international court & death by hanging, if he takes one step outside Russia.
    Emergency legislation to seize all oligarch property in the West. Sell it to provide aid to Ukraine.

        • Fifa definitely agree with you, the rest wont happen at all or certainly anytime soon.

          Threatening to remove Russia’s veto would in itself potential trigger a nuclear conflict.

          • That is one heck of a gamble and with his current state of mind clearly being clouded not a gamble many would or should even attempt to take!

          • If we back down now, then we will be backing down forever on. Putin needs to meet cold hard unflinching resolve. To (mis) quote President Reagan “If not us who? If not now when?”.

    • Hi John.

      I share your anger, but I would caution pushing Putin too far. If he does use nukes I don’t think it will be a battlefield nuke, I think he would go all in. He is just mad enough to do it…

      CR

      • Putin thought the West would be divided & feeble. However, the footage from the weekend has given even the Germans, a new resolve. Putin will huff & puff, but if he is stood up to, then like all bullies, he will slink away.

        • Hi John, Yes – Putin seems to have united NATO, brought Ukraine closer to the West (now inconceivable that it won’t soon be offered EU membership) – and increased German defence spending.
          What a genius he truly is!! 😀

          • I think Ukraine was just used by NATO and when the going got tough was abandoned to the Russian Bear! I think it is being used to destabilise Russia, it may pay off or may not and Putin could gain a victory , it’s too early . If were Ukraine I would be neutral . Let’s not forget a coup happened in Ukraine when there was a pro Russian government that was elected . The Russians never got over that . Russia will never accept Ukrainian NATO membership. Russian has more advanced nuke missiles than the west let’s not forget that . Its financially backed by China something overlooked! Russia calculated all this

          • I wouldnt say its financially backed by China, it will certainly be financially abused by China over the sanctions when they start buying all the resources at hugely knocked down prices.

            Have slightly more advanced nuclear weapons (assuming they are) is of no significance when both sides possess as many as they do, both will hit targets and decimate the planet.

          • If NATO said to Russia, you cannot ally with China, Russia would say it was a sovereign nation & could ally with who it wanted. Same applies to Ukraine. It is down to Ukraine who it wants to ally with. I don’t care if Russia does not want Ukraine to join NATO. It is not Russia’s decision. It is Ukraine’s decision.
            As for China. Yes it has made a great leap forward, but it has done it on debt. Evergrande $300 billion+ in debt. High Speed rail $950 billion in debt. Local government $ 4 to 8 trillion in debt. Real covid deaths in China somewhere between one million & 1.75 million. Raise tariffs on Chinese goods if they side with Russia.

          • James,
            But this conflict has nothing to do with NATO membership.
            It’s good to have an open mind, but I fear you’re too influenced by how Putin is framing this invasion.

            NATO last accepted new members 18 years ago (2004) – and discussions with Ukraine have been going no-where since 2008. Indeed when Putin invaded Crimea and the Donbas in 2014 he kiboshed any realistic possibility of Ukrainian membership. NATO would not accept a new member with conflict within its borders.

            I wouldn’t characterise the events of 2014 as a coup. The government fell because it couldn’t maintain public support for its sudden turn-around in policies towards the EU. Too bad for the schemes of the authoritarian ruler next door!

            I’m persuaded that this invasion is really about potential EU membership – and Ukraine becoming more integrated into the Western world, becoming more economically prosperous, less corrupt – and adopting more democratic norms. The example of such a Ukraine on Putin’s borders would indeed be a threat his authoritarian regime – and undermine his presidency.

            Just to sum-up: I think it’s wrong to frame an argument that after Putin invades a country posing no military threat to him, that it’s all NATO’s fault!

        • As much I disagree with Putin we have no right to lecture Putin after what we did in Iraq ! Russian back them wan warned if the US and UK go ahead with this illegal war they should not wonder when others invade a country based on bogus ground .

      • Hi CR, might you know if there is an American shift in their nuclear alert status? It seems there hasn’t- but I could well be wrong.

        • A very, very sad statistic.

          They will all have had loved ones.

          The Ukrainians had no choice it was forced on them by Vlad The Mad.

          What happens when they have lost 10k personnel?

          • Ukraine suffered the worst of the German atrocities in WW2 followed by a generation of living under the Soviet cosh. Gorbachev is reputed to have said that Chernobyl was perhaps the real reason the USSR collapsed. The Ukrainians know BS when they see it. They are clear eyed and would rather die than live a daily fearful ‘existence’ under Russian rule. The last few days have also seen Germany and the EU snap out of their post war EU garden of Eden delusion. I would bet Putin expected Germany to be ‘the weakest link’ as Anne Robinson would say. He has a problem now.
            Wouldn’t be surprised if many of the Russian boys are conscripts. As you say every one is some mother’s son.

          • It must be starting to really hit some of the Russian soldiers on the ground.

            From civilians trying to stop tanks, and women trying to give them sunflower seeds so that their bodies will help them grow, to that Russian Ukrainian telling them that even though he is Russian, that this is Ukraine and his home.

    • This are fantasy propaganda stats for 3 days war! Putin would have destroyed Ukraine if those figures were true . Even a modern well equipped army can’t bring such results ! Propaganda on both sides is going on! I won’t fall for both sides as this is not independently verified , plus the Ukraine official military was way more modest than those figures

      • I dont know, seeing how many videos of Ukrainian scrap metal dealers wheeling away both destroyed and non destroyed Russian armor I think the locals are doing a grand job at contributing to the figures!

  18. Wonder how the Russia-Turkey relationship is holding it In Libya they are enemies, in Syria they are friends. Now it seems that in the Black Sea they are enemies
    And then there is Israel which is now more blatant regarding its Russian Israeli cooperation in Syria.

    • Russia has stable relationship with Turkey, Turkey buys 33 percent of lts gas from Russia, and receives many tourist from there, and Turkey exports lots to Russia, and Turkish construction companies are very active in Russia. Russia is building 3 nuclear plants in Turkey due to be finished next year It has purchased S400 from Russia too . It has deep defence relationship with Ukraine , Turkey supplies drones with know how transfer and is building 4 Corvettes for Ukraine with know how transfer .Ukraine provides long range rocket tech and engine tech to Turkey . So Turkey wants no war and prefers good relations, but was forced to close the black sea now after Russian invasion.

  19. Seeing the comparisons made to Hitler, the crazy thing is Mad Vlad has united nations to a degree even Hitler failed to achieve!

    Even hard core neutrals Sweden and Switzerland have sided against him now.

    Nice job Vlad, truly some achievement and something that will go down in history!

      • Agreed that must be a red line for China, they seem very uncomfortable with the situation so far, if it escalates further it will be interesting to see how they calculate the relationship going forward.

        • Yes. China haven’t shown their usual ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy. It’s almost been normal diplomacy from them. That suggests that they aren’t confident with backing Russia at all.

          • I hope that is the case and then that may shine a light on how they will look at a Taiwan situation.

            Also if Putin loses such an ally in China then he may start to realise how isolated he actually is.

  20. Aid sent to the Ukraine as of yesterday:
    Canada is sending lethal military weaponry to Ukraine and loaning Kyiv half a billion Canadian dollars ($394 million) to help it defend itself.

    Berlin has broken a longstanding taboo of not exporting arms to conflict zones in vowing to send Ukraine 1,000 anti-tank weapons, 500 “Stinger” surface-to-air missiles and nine howitzers. It is also donating 14 armoured vehicles and 10,000 tonnes of fuel.

    Stockholm is also breaking its historic neutral stance to send 5,000 anti-tank rockets to Ukraine as well as field rations and body armour.
    It is the first time Sweden has sent weapons to a country in armed conflict since the Soviet Union invaded neighbouring Finland in 1939.

    France, which has already sent help, is dispatching more military equipment as well as fuel. Paris says it has acted on earlier Ukrainian requests for defensive anti-aircraft and digital weapons.

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he is committed to “provide further UK support to Ukraine in the coming days”, without specifying what it might be.

    Belgium says it will supply Ukraine with 3,000 more automatic rifles and 200 anti-tank weapons, as well as 3,800 tons of fuel.

    The Dutch defence ministry says it is sending “200 Stinger missiles as soon as possible”, after a shipment Saturday of sniper rifles and helmets. It adds to the 20 million euros ($22 million) of humanitarian aid it has already promised.

    Prague said Saturday it is sending 4,000 mortars “in the next few hours” as well as an arsenal of 30,000 pistols, 7,000 assault rifles, 3,000 machine guns as well as scores of sniper rifles and a million bullets.

    The Czechs had already promised Kyiv 4,000 mortars worth 1.5 million euros ($1.6 million) which have yet to be delivered.

    Rome has sent 110 million euros ($123 million) in immediate aid to the Ukrainian government as “a concrete sign of our support,” Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio tweeted.

    Portugal is giving Ukraine night vision goggles, bulletproof vest, helmets, grenades, ammunition and automatic G3 rifles.

    Greece, which has a large community in Ukraine — 10 of whom have been killed with many more in the firing line — is sending “defence equipment” as well as humanitarian aid.

    Bucharest — which shares a border with Ukraine — is offering to treat the wounded in its 11 military hospitals as well as sending fuel, bulletproof vests, helmets and other “military material” worth three million euros ($3.3 million).

    Madrid has promised to send 20 tonnes of aid to Ukraine, mostly medical and defensive equipment such as bulletproof vests.

    Israel says it is sending 100 tonnes of humanitarian aid such as medical equipment, water purifiers, tents and sleeping bags.

    • If Ukraine can resist for a day or two, will it get the equipment? Can Ukraine win with this equipment? Can Ukraine survive until this equipment reaches him and not fall?

      • I wouldn’t be to sure that even if Kiev is taken that the Ukrainians are just going to roll over! Hopefully they will get the president out and carry on from somewhere else.

    • This idea Germany sends no weapons to conflict zones is blatant lie! They have sent weapons to Syria start of war ! And they armed the Saudis in Yemen . The sheer hypocrisy is beyond anything .

      • Sending arms to conflict zones and the sale of weapons to states are not exactly the same thing.

        Germany certainly had arms contracts with Syria that got signed well before the war started and the time lines do appear to cross over that they continued to supply some small arms after the civil war kicked off.

        I dont believe Germany has supplied any arms at all to Saudi since 2018, or do you have evidence to suggest otherwise?

  21. Question for the masses, I see that Ukraine has applied to join the EU, if its approved does that pave the way for European armies to become involved to defend a fellow member, and if one of those members happens to be NATO does that then drag NATO in too?

    • The EU has no military ! EU won’t bring Ukraine help, they misunderstood what the EU is. The EU said we will sanction Russia block it from EU airspace and territory? It’s interesting because the EU is not a country nor can ban airspace of sovereign member states , it’s up to individual countries under international laws . So they are using this conflict to expand their own federalist agenda acting as if the EU is one superstate which its not

      • I think maybe I didn’t mean my comment clear, I didn’t mean European armies acting on behalf of the EU I meant armies of the European countries as individuals, say the German army, the French army etc. If they decide to come to the aid of ukraine under the guise of defending a fellow European Union member would that then drag NATO into a conflict

  22. Does anyone know what the staus of the Ukrainian air force is. Has it/is it in action? Or has it been neutralised on the ground?

  23. An interesting site to look at on Twitter is @oryxspionkop it gives an update of equipment losses and lots of videos. Seems Putin has bitten off more than he can chew. Looks like the Ukrainian drones are doing well including hitting a fuel supply train

  24. NORTH KOREA has already ICBMs plus NATO would do nothing as Russia is a nuclear power! Sanctions only they would do. What is going in Ukraine reminds me of Iraq 2003 when the US destroyed it and nobody could stop them because the US is a nuclear power

  25. Why are the Ukrainians not hitting the supply lines 40 km of supplies, If that was the Middle East there would be dozens of roadside IED’s waiting for them. Why not hit it with artillery sitting ducks

    • Bidding their time …to make it a really big target rich environment…

      Ohhh how the Ukrainians must we wishing for a flight of A10s going Brrrr and Typhoons with a full brimstone load out….

    • Maybe they have intel that the convey isn’t really going anywhere?

      And if they know that the supply lines are disrupted/broken, then they know that they convoy can’t go very far. Plus, given the gridlock, it doesn’t look like the convoy can even get supplies to the front…

      If so, they might just be able to keep hitting the supplies and wait it out. The vehicles can’t move without fuel, and the soldiers won’t last long without food.

  26. Does Ukraine have a chance with that caravan, which of course is mostly fuel trucks? Of course, this caravan is a moving bomb

  27. The Cherkassy Pocket was a brutal battle fought in the Ukraine in early 1944 when a German Army group was surrounded by the Red Army on the West Bank of Dneiper. One of the survivors from the Wallonie Brigade attached to the Viking SS Division wrote the account of the horror of what the Red Army did: running down fleeing soldiers and smashing them under their treads and castrating German prisoners and stringing them up on trees. Of course no war crimes trials were ever held for these atrocities.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here