A former British ambassador to Iran has warned that the risk of a conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States is now at its most serious point in decades, as tensions rise over Tehran’s nuclear and regional ambitions.
In an interview with BBC Newsnight, Sir Richard Dalton, who served as the UK’s envoy to Tehran from 2003 to 2006, described the situation as “the most dangerous it’s ever been” amid reports that the United States is pushing for direct negotiations this weekend.
“The risk of a war between Israel and the United States on the one hand and Iran on the other has never been higher,” said Sir Richard, citing longstanding Israeli aims to weaken Iran, particularly through U.S. involvement. “Iran does not have a nuclear weapon and does not have a military nuclear programme,” he added, noting this remains the assessment of U.S. intelligence agencies for over two decades.
President Trump recently stated that high-level talks had been scheduled, warning that if negotiations failed, “Iran would be in great danger.” However, Iranian officials have publicly rebuffed such discussions, reiterating that their nuclear programme is solely for civilian use.
Sir Richard explained that Tehran views any talks as a test of American seriousness, rather than a prelude to surrender. “The Americans appear to want a very rapid progress towards a surrender by Iran on three fronts,” he said—highlighting nuclear enrichment, missile development, and regional influence as the key sticking points. “Iran’s not in the market for a surrender. They would be in the market for a serious negotiation.”
On the potential fallout from a U.S. or Israeli military strike on Iran, Sir Richard issued a stark warning. “If they have discounted Iran’s capacity to retaliate, I believe they’re making a big mistake,” he said. “Missiles and drones would be directed against American facilities in the region. It would cause massive disruption of oil trade out of the Gulf… and might mean what was intended to be a short, sharp strike turns into a protracted conflict.”
Trump before election : i’m going to end all wars
Trump post election: starts a tariff war, starts a diplomatic war and about to start a real war
but of course Magas will keep kissing the ring.
Textbook cultist behaviour
To my knowledge he didn’t state he would end all wars, just Russia and Israel. He made is perfectly clear he was starting a trade war with everyone and that he dislikes a number of his allies. The issue is people didn’t believe him.
Well he said he would stop the US being involved in further wars and implied he would bring peace to the World and of course he hasn’t stopped the Israel or Ukraine wars especially on day one as promised. Worse still there is a direct line back from the Hamas attack on Israel to events he created during the final months of his last Administration, like for one forcing certain Arab States to reluctantly restore normal relations with Israel in exchange for Trump endorsed take overs of large swathes of Palestinian lands in the West Bank which broke the influence of Western aligned Arab States over Hamas and indeed Hezbollah inflamed their anger and worst of all massively increased Iranian influence and military support to both entities and greatly enabled and encouraged that appalling attack. And Trump’s answer is to now threaten war on the very Country he empowered. Must be the ‘Art of the Deal’ that destroyed (business and physically) his casino in Atlantic City he praised as a game changer and no doubt why he is eyeing a new one in unregulated Gaza as his new great idea.
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The man’s gone native!
Having a nuclear enrichment programme beyond a certain point is the same as having a military nuclear programme. It’s the main reason for continuing enrichment and it’s difficulty is what stops nuclear weapons proliferation. After WW2 the Germans claimed their wartime programme was for submarine nuclear power, but I don’t think anyone believed them. I’ve read Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme has gone well beyond other requirements and is close to military grade. That’s dual use at the most generous interpretation, not civilian. Given Iran’s proclivity for arming terrorists, allowing them HEU is a very risky prospect for the rest of the world.
Another Foreign Office Arab lover. He and his ilk are why we are where we are. Iran is a snake and with it beaten Hamas and other terrorist proxies will cease to be.
Time to bomb their nuclear facilities and do it very hard indeed. If they seek to retaliate then US needs to destroy power grids and port facilities. It would spell the end of the mad mullahs.
Put a Shah back in place please. There is one alive after all.
Isn’t that what created the problem in the first place? Iran had a semblance of a democratic Govt post war until the US/UK decided to overturn it and decided to put a pliable dictator in charge and allowing us to keep our oil riches as long as he got nice cut and pay his brutal military and secret police. And then of course the only power strong enough to defeat him were the religious nutters. Great logic all round there. Of course Musk called for the President to overthrown the British Govt for similar ‘control’ for the oligarchs over our freedoms but I’m sure we would all welcome our new alien overlords in and whatever Quisling puppet (Farage. Tommy Robinson or Count Binface I wonder) they put in place with open arms. I guess if Elections remained at all they would take a leaf out of Putin’s book and always ensure he had 90% support so anyone complaining would just be troublemakers and rightfully imprisoned… or worse.
The Iranians are not Arabs…
Many groups do not appreciate that Iran could have nuclear weapons now, bought from a few nations that were desperate for money over the last 10-20 years. If the IRGCs existence is threatened, they could strike out at US / Israel / Western assets throughout the Middle East. This combined with Trumps tariffs could push much of the world into recession or even a depression.
A few nations? Don’t be shy, name names, because I can’t think of a single one. I remember when they offered Pakistan billions in the ’90s and were turned down flat. As for striking out at US and Israel if threatened, what’s new? You may not have noticed but they’ve been striking out against local countries for years.
Russia is the obvious option, they needed Iran drones etc and could have traded nukes for them. North Korea is another option that could have traded them for missile tech. Although there is no evidence of this.
Russia (former Ukrainian weapons), North Korea would sell their soul for money and Pakistan (it has been proved by Int Agencies) that a Pakistani scientists have worked in Iran.
Yes or dead of course. By the way Russia did quite a lot in helping South Africa with its nuclear weapon programme so there’s one usual suspect to consider. Of course being matey with Trump these days I guess that might all be played down. And there’s the rub, morality means nothing in a World dictated by the power crazed who just want more power and everyone else less and seen as inconvenient interlopers sitting on the assets to be stripped to trickle down to the little people while US billionaires can keep getting richer. Most economists and those who know Trump seem to be warning of that very future if we lay down and take the hits now while just begging for a few less please.
Hi Spy. I was under the impression (perhaps mistakenly) that France indirectly assisted RSA with is nuclear weapon programme. Might you have a link to share regarding Russia involvement? in intrigued to learn more.
It was all signed and sealed yesterday in Washington. Sadly, this is not a warning without teeth, as Trump will act just as he’s done with tariffs. However, the climb down will be a different case altogether. Trump is also using his warning as a signal to Putin, who needs to wake up and smell the coffee, too! These are interesting times, but is the UK ready to handle the fallout?
Trump needs a recession, thats all hes interested in right now. Putin ending the war will be a positive move to economies, not in Trumps interest. Trump bombing Iran will add to instability and most likely upset India/China combined as both have been heavily investing in Iran mots likely adding to further trade conflicts and bringing on a recession.
It is interesting and worrying times, is the UK financially in a position to handle it, no probably not. Most of Europe probably isnt with the exception of Germany.
Lets see how it plays out.
Not sure Germany is to be honest, as for France with loans valued above their GDP well less said the better. Just have to hope some semblance of sanity returns and the Republicans Party starts to see Trump as destroying the Party not saving them, but even though cracks are forming even Fox is getting concerned in places and the opposition somewhat emboldened and the Musk/Trump partnership falling apart even quicker than expected there is a long way to go before there’s any real move to control let alone remove him. But things are certainly moving fast.
The rot in the Oval Office has only just started; before too long, many of the top cabinet members will be gone and with them, condemnation of Trump, just as with his first term. Allegedly, Trump does not read reports or listens to cautious rhetoric, which leads to frustration amongst those closest to him. As the ramifications of these global tariffs take effect, many in the Republican camp will be keen to disown Trump or be associated with his policies as the public rises in contempt at his obvious lack of accumen for presidency.
Iran isn’t giving up its nuclear programme.
Brigadier, I think it will be pulverised. Western intel, according to reports has advanced leaps and bounds since Iraq.
Well I would seriously wonder and worry about Chinese actions if the US got dragged into a war with Iran.. because at that point China literally has in place all its polital warfare win conditions for a protracted war with the US in the western pacific.. because when it did go to war with the US a core part of what it would try to do would be.
1) get Russia to threaten Europe and try and rupture NATO removing the European democracies direct support to the US..
2) inflame Iran into trigger a conflict in the Middle East.. curtailing trade routes into the North Atlantic region and sucking US expeditionary resources into a middle Easter conflict.
3) this would have been beyond their wildest political warfare wet dreams but isolating the US from the rest of the western world in regards to trade..
There is really only one cherry on the top and that would be getting North Korea to invade South Korea.. but I honestly think the mess in South Korea and the development of a potential fracture with the US means China my move to actually getting South Korea into the neutral area…
In effect it would not surprise me one bit if there was a US Iran war for china to initiate its plans for a western pacific war…. And if that happened I think Russia would possibly risk a tiny little nibble at NATO just to cascade a final rupture..
Spot on Jonathan the tactics and plans are hardly subtle yet many esp Trump don’t get it. The Ukraine war was ‘allowed’ by. Hina as a proxy flank attack on the Western Alliance and the long term goal of Russia and China to break Europe from the US, geez the Orange Real Estate guy just did it all for them and is breaking the whole US created world economy that they set up BRICs to do decades into the future. Wet dream doesn’t do it justice and whatever ‘wins’ Trump tries to sell this as will never be prepared beyond a temp UHO fix while new options are built. Many Countries will flock to BRICS that’s a certainty now it’s just the timing and eminent economists (just listened to one today) are predicting France and Germany are now keen to form a new trading block including EU, Canada, Britain, Australia, Japan with others offered the chance to join to replace Globalism with a strong powerful bulwark against both BRICS and the US and potentially involving GDP worth 45% of the Worlds value as a bargaining chip to confront the US. It’s an idea often mulled over but these events have now propelled reluctant members to deem it the only way out of this mess. That said it would be a long term realignment and the future before that is the big worry, at this rate there might not even be a future much beyond the Stone Age.
In the last two high tariff regimes, the 1890 period that Trump claims was Americas ‘Greatness’ JP Morgan (a bank that originated in London ironically) saved the US economy and why the US started to remove them and of course the 1920s and the Great Depression so not exactly a bright future outlook.
Is it just possible that the rest of the World works out an economic strategy that circumnavigates the US in terms of multiple/mutual agreements, which in the long term strengthens and does not weaken without US dominance. The post-war status quo was mostly created by the US and solid trading and military bonds were formed but most of all, trust in the American values. Overnight Trump has ruined decades of strong partnerships with so many nations, until he started to smack nations around the head without provocation. I’m dam sure the UK won’t be so enthusiastic to run to Trump’s side as with other times in history when the penny drops that the rest of the World is not stupid.
Hi Jonathan- good commentary and insights Mate!
I wonder what Trump thinks about Chinese troops been captured in Ukraine ? More Tariffs 🇨🇳