Carns warns UK must adapt faster or risk future war

Armed Forces Minister Alistair Carns has used a speech at the London Defence Conference to argue that the UK must move faster in adapting to modern warfare, warning that failure to do so would increase the risk of future conflict.

Speaking after visits to Cyprus and Ukraine, Carns said both theatres pointed to the same conclusion: that the nature of war has changed, and that resilience can no longer be treated as something that can be improvised in a crisis.

He said Ukraine had shown how quickly conflict now evolves, with drones, compressed kill chains and constant attacks on infrastructure reshaping the battlefield. He also argued that Russia was not simply fighting in Ukraine, but learning from the war and passing on what it learns to others, including Iran.

“If we did not change at pace, we would fall behind,” Carns said.

A central theme of the speech was the economics of modern war, with Carns arguing that cheap, mass-produced uncrewed systems are now changing not just battlefield tactics but the wider industrial and logistical model behind them.

He said drone warfare now accounts for the overwhelming majority of casualties in Ukraine and claimed that one drone can deliver the equivalent battlefield effect of multiple artillery rounds, dramatically reducing the logistics burden behind sustained combat.

“The economics of warfare matter, and we must learn and act now and act together,” he said. “The consequences of ignoring these lessons will be grievous.”

Carns rejected the idea that Western militaries could simply assume future wars would be fought differently, saying the answer was not a choice between traditional high-end capability and cheaper autonomous systems, but a blend of both.

“It’s not either or. It’s a blend. It’s a high, low mix,” he said.

He tied those lessons directly to current UK defence policy, pointing to investment in uncrewed systems, integrated targeting networks and closer cooperation with Ukraine. He said readiness now depends not only on what is bought, but on how quickly lessons are absorbed and capability is scaled.

The minister also broadened the argument beyond the armed forces themselves, saying national resilience rests on the health of the economy, public services, energy security and workforce skills as much as on ships, aircraft and munitions. “You can spend billions on defence, but if families are struggling and the economy is under strain, you’re kidding yourself about how strong this country really is,” he said.

Carns argued that resilience must be built before crisis hits, rather than assumed to appear under pressure, and said the UK should not simply assume it would show the same staying power as Ukraine without doing that groundwork in advance.

On alliances, he said the UK response remains rooted in NATO but extends beyond it, including cooperation with European allies and the Joint Expeditionary Force. He also sought to play down doubts over the UK-US relationship, saying it was grounded in long-standing operational and industrial integration rather than short-term political commentary. “Friends can disagree,” he said. “The reality is our cooperation is continuous.”

He ended by returning to the question of people, arguing that pay, housing and family support are essential to sustaining a ready force, and linking improved recruitment and reduced outflow to that wider approach.

“If we get this wrong, if we fail, we increase the chances of war,” Carns said. “We increase the chances of conflict by not being ready.”