Russia is now spending close to half of its entire state budget on defence, NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte has said, describing the figures as evidence that the alliance cannot afford to be naive about Moscow’s intentions, the alliance has said.
Speaking after the defence ministers’ meeting, Rutte said the latest figures showed Russia had pushed defence spending from 40 per cent to “48% of all the state budget”, meaning that around three-quarters of Moscow’s tax income was now going on defence, numbers he called “crazy” and a reason the alliance could not be complacent.
At the same time, Rutte sought to keep the threat in proportion, noting that economically “Russia is not bigger than Belgium and the Netherlands combined”, and arguing that Moscow knew NATO was very strong and that it “cannot win from us”, with the alliance determined to make clear that any attack would be the gravest mistake Russia could make.
Questioned on warnings from German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and others that Russia could be in a position to attack NATO by 2029, Rutte said the date drew on open-source assessments from various European intelligence agencies that Moscow could be strong enough by then, and that the alliance’s task was to ensure it remained stronger still, “stronger than 27 and in 29 and in 31”, so that Russia judged it better not to try.
On the battlefield, Rutte said Ukraine was holding the line and making small net gains, a shift from the picture four or five months ago, while having growing success using drones and other tactics to degrade Russian energy infrastructure and the country’s ability to produce new weapons. He put Russian losses at between 30,000 and 35,000 killed each month, calling the figures striking.
Asked whether a weakening Russia might offer concessions or escalate, Rutte said Putin would ultimately have to decide whether to engage in the peace process being driven by American negotiators, crediting President Trump with breaking the deadlock, while stressing that the alliance would meanwhile do everything it could to keep Ukraine as strong as possible in the fight.
What we don’t know is how much of this expenditure is going into the fight with Ukraine. I fear post-Ukrainian War more than the current situation and Putin’s plans for the future. Expansion of spying activity on the seas and in the skies is a certainty, but scamming and cyber attacks could multiply. Further civil disruption and falsehoods using AI to destabilise societies at a local level and distort political truths to the point that public confidence in our parliamentary system is further reduced. There is an increasing risk of Russian technology in combination with China and North Korea to perfect drone interdiction beyond the West’s capabilities and thereby place our nation in greater danger.
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