UK Defence Secretary warns Putin may yet turn on NATO

Britain has to invest and has to be ready because President Putin is waging a war in Europe while saying he has no interest in one, the Defence Secretary has said, describing investment in capability, in the defence industrial base and in alliances as the things that make war less likely, according to remarks made to reporters in Glasgow.

Wes Streeting was speaking at BAE Systems Scotstoun, where a new offsets policy was announced. Asked by this publication what his warning that Britain has around a thousand days to be ready to fight and win a war means for the armed forces and for the public, and what sacrifices the public are being asked to make to get there, he said: “Well, we’re investing in our capability, we’re investing in our defence industrial base, and we’re investing in our alliances. Those things make us stronger, and the stronger we are, the stronger our deterrence, and the less likely we are to find ourselves at war.

“We don’t seek confrontation with Russia. We have no quarrel with the Russian people. But what we can’t avoid is the hard reality that at the same time that President Putin says he’s not interested in war in Europe, he’s currently waging one, and he gave the Ukrainians those assurances that he had no plans to invade only weeks before the Russian invasion took place.

“So in that climate, we have to invest. We have to be ready. And in terms of what we’re asking of the country, as the Chancellor’s Budget showed this week, we are asking people to make that contribution right across government, and so defence is our number one duty, our number one priority, and that’s why it’s my responsibility to make sure that every penny that goes in is well spent, and that every bit of value we can extract for jobs and growth here in Scotland and right across the United Kingdom is realised. That’s my commitment.”

The contribution he describes falls across government and therefore on departmental budgets, and his answer turned on deterrence, which holds that a force strong enough to make an attack unprofitable is a force that never has to fight.

He was speaking after the announcement of a new offsets policy, under which overseas companies winning British defence contracts worth more than £50 million can be required to put benefits back into the country worth up to the full value of the contract, through jobs, apprenticeships, factories, investment in British suppliers or transfers of technology. A central Offset Authority will agree, value and monitor each arrangement, and the policy applies to a select number of procurements from April 2027. Ministers consulted industry on the approach earlier this year.

Asked what role Scotland will play in the Defence Investment Plan, John Healey, who moved from defence to the Treasury and delivered Wednesday’s Budget as Chancellor, said: “Defence is our number one priority. We also announced today the defence secretary and policy, where people have seen this is a government that will direct our defence investment first and foremost in British jobs and British businesses. But there will be things that we need to buy from abroad and from allies.

“So Norwegians, for instance, are part procuring some of this portion behind us, and they will require us because they have a policy that we’re now introducing for the first time ever in Britain, which we call an offset policy. We will buy some of the things the Norwegians produce that we can’t here.

“Now, in future, when Britain places contracts abroad, we’ll make sure that those we place those contracts with invest in Britain as well, jobs, business support, innovation, so that we can make sure that every pound of British taxpayers’ money works twice.”

Norway ordered five Type 26 frigates from Britain in a £10 billion deal supporting 2,000 jobs on the Clyde, and Oslo has run an industrial cooperation requirement of its own for decades, obliging foreign suppliers of significant equipment to place work with Norwegian firms. More than £35.2 billion has been spent with overseas industry since 2016, eleven per cent of direct departmental expenditure with industry and commerce, while 85 per cent already goes to British firms.

Streeting also attacked the Scottish National Party’s position on nuclear weapons, responding to the First Minister’s claim that the government is leaving Scotland short of defence. He said: “We’ve got HMS Prince of Wales currently out on a major exercise now, so I think it’s very visible proof that what the First Minister said is both irresponsible and unfounded. I don’t think the SNP should be playing party politics with national defence and security.

“In terms of the risk of leaving the UK with insufficient defence, one of the biggest risks facing that security is the SNP’s position on unilateral nuclear disarmament. It is by far and away the most important deterrent that we have, and it’s not just the UK’s deterrent, it’s NATO’s deterrent. So any time the SNP says that a separate Scotland can be a NATO member, they have to first explain how their white flag policy on unilateral nuclear disarmament would work under a nuclear alliance.”

The party voted narrowly in 2012 to drop its opposition to NATO membership while keeping its opposition to nuclear weapons, a position that would require an independent Scotland to join an alliance whose strategic concept describes nuclear weapons as the supreme guarantee of allied security, while removing the British deterrent from Faslane and Coulport. New members are admitted by unanimous agreement of the existing ones.

Asked whether Scotland is a target for Russia, Streeting said: “The people of Scotland and people right across the United Kingdom can draw comfort and security in the knowledge that we have some extraordinary capability at our disposal. Across our armed forces, as well as our special forces, and the protection of the NATO alliance, and that principle that an attack on one is an attack on all.

“I don’t think that Putin would be foolish enough to seek a direct war with NATO today. What I can’t be certain of is that at some point in the future he might not try, and that’s NATO’s threat assessment, and that’s why we are building our capability, building our defence industry, including here in Scotland, and building our alliances so that we are strong and therefore able to deter any potential Russian threat.”

He added that governments across the United Kingdom and local councils should play their part in national resilience, work led by the Cabinet Office through the Home Defence Programme, whose public awareness campaign launched on 22 October.

Healey rejected the Scottish government’s claim that its budget is being cut by £650 million in real terms, telling reporters: “No, they’re wrong. The Scottish budget is bigger than it’s been before.”

The Budget set a target date of 2030 for defence spending to reach three per cent of gross domestic product, with the route to the NATO commitment of three and a half per cent by 2035 left to next year’s Spending Review, and the Defence Investment Plan is backed by £298 billion over four years. The Scottish defence economy is worth £2.5 billion and directly supports 12,200 jobs, including 300 roles in Edinburgh on a £453 million Typhoon radar contract.