The UK will be increasing the number of Typhoon fighter jets deployed to Cyprus as part of efforts to deter Russia, the Prime Minister has announced.
At a press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said:
“The tougher those sanctions are, the more automatic they are, the more chance we have of deterring what I think would be an irrational response. But what we’re also doing is ensuring that we have a… we engage the Russian’s attention, we occupy their bandwidth and we get ready all over the eastern frontier of NATO and that’s why Jens was kind to mention all the things that, that we’re doing where we’re supporting operation, Cold Response in… up in the north in the Norway area with the prince of HMS Prince of Wales, 16 Air Assault Brigade.
In Estonia, we’re doubling the presence at Tapa, the enhanced Forward Presence of Tapa. In Poland we’re adding – where I’ll be going shortly – we’re adding another 350 troops from 45 Commando. We’re doing air policing in Romania, increasing the number of Typhoons that we’re deploying out of, out of Cyprus – a squadron of typhoons – and we’re sending ships to the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea, an OPV and a Type 45. And that’s, as I think, as Jens referred to, we’re also putting on standby 1000 troops in preparation for a humanitarian crisis that may take place on NATO’s Eastern frontiers. So we’re getting ready.”
Britain supplying Ukraine with weapons to counter Russian Navy
Johnson also added:
“We’re now in the last two or three months we’ve sent some, some anti-tank weaponry, the NLAWs as you know, 2000 of them. We will consider what more we can… we can conceivably offer. But I have to tell you that you know, the Ukrainians are well prepared that there are things that we’ve offered that they in fact, don’t seem to need because they think that they have them in enough numbers already. So it’s possible. I don’t want to rule this out.
But at the moment, we think that the package is the right one. But I just want to stress that it would be an absolute disaster if it were to come to that. And if there would be serious bloodshed on Ukrainian soil. And I know that people in Russia must be thinking about this too. And I know that in the Kremlin and across Russia, they must be wondering whether it is really sensible to expend the blood of Russian soldiers in a war that I think is… would be catastrophic, and also pointless, tragic and vastly economically costly to Russia.”
Why Cyprus?
Cyprus is home to RAF Akrotiri. RAF Akrotiri is home of the Cyprus Operations Support Unit which provides “joint support to British Forces Cyprus and operations in the region to protect the UK’s strategic interests”.
RAF Akrotiri is an extremely busy base that supports ongoing operations in the region as well as support for the Sovereign Base Areas on Cyprus. It is used as a forward mounting base for overseas operations in the Middle East and for fast jet training.
Typhoon jets flying from the base are often used as part of Operation Shader, the UK effort against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
It’s like a mini surge, but how long can we maintain this momentum?
Not too long as Britain has less than 100 fighter jets, total.
No it doesn’t. It has approx 130 typhoons and 20+ f35. It also has nearly 30 hawk T2 which could be considered a fighter jet. I hope these numbers increase. Ben Wallace has said NATO countries will have to further increase defence spending if Russia invades
Ukraine will be a distant memory before the first additional airframes/tanks/APC’s/small arms roll off the production lines. “What production lines?” I hear you ask. Thank the gods we didn’t give Ukraine NATO membership. I hope the Russians do take half or all of Ukraine. At least it will teach our pathetic politicians what happens when they fail to perform their primary duty, DEFENCE. It’s time to initiate emergency production procedures and invest heavily in military hardware. Along with conscription. The “C” word. Perhaps poking the bear will have some positive results after all. We certainly cannot rely on the US… Read more »
Showing your true colors Moscow trump!
Strong take George. Not sure how beneficial conscription is. I agree, as will most people on here, that we need a larger military (whilst still keeping equipment and training standards high), the principal issue is no one wants to cut anything to fund it. It’s a bit like the fracking issue, a lot of people weren’t keen on it, for good reason, but a lot of people also want the UK to be energy dependant and to have cheap gas. I think that’s why a lot of people want better bang for your buck re defence spending, which though sensible… Read more »
Hi John, yes strong indeed but I hope understandable. Let me float a few more thoughts on the subject. It’s a matter of confused national priorities, in a country that has been lulled into a false sense of security. The inevitable result of long periods of peace, where we relied heavily on the US via NATO. But also compounded by having a small and ever decreasing fully professional armed force. I will explain. It is no surprise that this forum recognises the need for a stronger military, even if there are oft good natured disagreements on composition. We served in… Read more »
There’s a major problem in relation to a stronger military. People don’t want to sign up. The most recent cut in army numbers, from +83,000 to +75,000 was a recognition that we just couldn’t get to that number so the small number reflects the actual size, not the wished for size
Andy, I think we have been there before. The recruiting problem is solvable given the right approach by the powers that be. Better pay, more adventure training, excusing student loans for time served, preferential mortgage rates for married soldiers during and after service. Preferential access to social housing etc etc. Make it worthwhile and people of all ages will join up. The primary cause is of course a change in the public perception of all things military. Serving Q & C is no longer part of the national identity. Pacifism is taught in school both overtly and covertly. The resulting… Read more »
Numbers were cut to 72,500 then uplifted to 73,000 (not +75,000) in the last Defence review. It was a good excuse for Ben Wallace to claim that one of the main reasons to cut the Peace Establishment of army units was because of weak recruitment. He is illiterate on structures.
Are Hawk trainers armed? Stretching the point a little Julian.
That is just silliness… We’re talking deployable aircraft not airframe sitting around stripped of parts.
A very mini surge and light on details. How many jets moved etc Vs how many are normally deployed. The troop number seems extremely token.
Hope we have some left to look after the uk!
Red flag 22-1 finishes tomorrow in Nevada so some Typhoons will be crossing back east soon. Back to Lossie or direct to Cyprus will be the question?
Sorry. Finishes today in Nevada
A day out in your report?
Disgraceful ! 😎
I know…I must try harder..lol
Watching Putin on TV the other day, I was struck by how angry he appeared. The same with Lavrov. They are usually much more diplomatic, and remain poker-faced – but this time they couldn’t contain their emotions. On a basic level, that says something quite concerning. They seemed fearful. My guess is that they know something about the weakening, and long-term prospects, of the Russian economy that we don’t, or the Russian elite is living in a paranoid eco-chamber. Lizz Truss, on the other hand, was firm, but she remained remarkably cool when she met Lavrov. An impressive performance (if… Read more »
I agree that more defence spending is needed. Even now it would be a hard sell though as it would mean cutting something else, borrowing more or raising tax at a time when people are already struggling with the cost of living. Also, the issue we have is that even if BoJo announced he was doubling the defence budget* it wouldn’t have much impact for a few years. It takes time to build ships, to build new planes etc. The current tensions with Russia over Ukraine would have been resolved by that time, one way or another. *I know that… Read more »
Not “hard” sell, more like an impossible sell but the MSM are doing their best to pump the risk.
The additional defence spending announced in 2020 is fine. Just got to make sure it’s not squandered and that value and effectiveness is derived from it.
I think we will see another uptick for capital expenditure.
It will all be stuff that was on the longer term agreed buy list with known and fixed costs but the small budget increases will allow the purchases be be completed in the near future.
This will have the effect of clearing space on future budget lines.
Its an easy sell; with so much wasted on vanity projects (HS2) and our vast outlay on benefits (which dwarves defence spending 5 to 1), and all of the money going up in smoke on undeserved Civil Servant and Teacher parses, there is plenty of scope for increasing spending and I suspect its one of those things the quiet majority would like to see.
Is it, though?
Would the general public rather the money be spent on defence or more on the NHS, education, police, or just lowering tax?
We think more should go into defence and many might agree except when it comes to the question of where that extra money comes from.
Much of that money on benefits goes towards state pension, and no party is going to take from the elderly as the largest voting group and risk losing the grey vote.
Well the NHS is has taken the lion share of increases; it will be interesting to see whether it remains as warmly regarded when the additional taxation doesn’t result in reduced wait times. That all benefits are spent on pensions is a myth: 10% of tax goes on state pensions a further 20% goes on ‘Welfare’ which includes working age benefits. 4.5% goes on defence. Because defence is in effect so lowly funded actually relatively small re-balances would go a long way. And I don’t buy the no votes in defence: one of the few industries that creates high quality… Read more »
I’m not sure there are votes in spending more that have any relevance. We have a first past the post voting system. It’s winning seats that matter. The bulk of London and many inner city areas have levels of poverty along with an ethnic demographic that certainly does not yearn back to the days when the RN ruled the waves, and with it swathes of Africa and Asia Try selling welfare cuts there for a defence boost. If Tory governments have cut defence, it’s unlikely a Labour one will markedly increase it. So we are pretty much hopeful of modest… Read more »
Hi David, I think increased defense spending can help to win votes, there are the benefits in increased well paid jobs and of the potential exports, which people have already talked about, but there are political benefits like strengthening the union and putting the left on the back foot. A possible extreme example would be if the government announced that the UK is going to increase the number of nuclear warheads and the size of the SSN fleet, which will all be based in Scotland (extreme I know, but just for arguments sake). You force the left to react, while… Read more »
Totally agree for example if our tank forces become vital I fear NATO will already have lost the war. Our priorities should lie elsewhere and above all make the flanks and sea-lanes are kept protected and make sure sure US reinforcements can make their way here in any crisis.
Exactly. Our nation state was built on our navy and exploits that gift that can’t be taken away, geography.
Grant it doesn’t come up on the doorstep for the politicians.Journalists don’t understand it and can find easier subjects to cover. The silent majority notice though. Each PM gets a manifesto and has a bundles of problems thrown at him. They might laugh at the tittle-tattle but measure people on the big issues NHS, Wars, pandemics, etc. If Boris plays things well on Ukraine and sorts the NHS out once and for all he will get a statue in parliament square 😀 on the other hand if he fails to successfully grapple with the NHS like his predecessors he is… Read more »
To be honest not sure where the money is going. From the official stats we now have less beds available than pre covid, so wherever the money has gone it hasn’t ended up in the front line NHS. Combined with cuts to the rail plans etc.
Lots of private companies mining the NHS, allowed by the Tories(& Tory-lite new labour), rather than allowing the funding & jobs for NHS professionals to do them. Stealthy privatisation. Their first priority is profit, not delivery. The PPE scandal is just the tip of the iceberg.
If we do build world beating kit why do we buy the majority of our kit from foreign manufacturers, we are slipping right down the league of world arm suppliers the list of countries leap frogging us is growing by the day.
It’s interesting most other countries do put stock on having their own capability (I mean look at the effort both the Chinese and Indians have put in to have an aircraft industry with the capabilities we have – especially in the field of jet propulsion where the Chinese still struggle despite all the money they have). I believe we have to be more strategic and decide where we want to double down our investment where it gives us an edge (underwater, combat aircraft, high end surface vessels, drones, satellites) areas where we desperately need to create domestic capability (ability to… Read more »
Welfare will take 13% of the total budget in 2022, pensions 16%, defence 5%, healthcare 20%
http://ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_total_spending_pie_chart
The money yields for budgets may be increased by having an exporting manufacturing industry! Most uk businesses do not export. Hark back to previous decades and it’s been a travesty for our kingdoms wealth. Thankfully, our govt are committed to increasing this forgotten part of the economy!
Don’t get me wrong here, I’m all for increasing defence spending. I’d say why not make it an even £50 billion (2.5% of GDP).
I’m just saying I don’t think the general public would like it much if certain things were cut or their taxes were to rise to fund it.
Taking money from pensioners has already happened. Apart from inderpaying several hundred thousand women pensioners over many year, the rise in retirement age pulled the rug from millions. Many of my mates died before reaching pension age & many on lower incomes & physically demanding jobs either don’t live to retirement or live long after retirement.
The elephant in the room is much of the wealth at the top of the tree remains hardly taxed at all.
How many votes are there in making ourselves so weak we could be over run, once the public find out?
Indeed, the case for some kind of wealth tax is looking stronger as each day passes. It will be impossible to devise one which is 100% effective but that shouldn’t stop us trying. A windfall tax on Shell and BP to help with fuel costs is a no-brainer. Capitalism is meant to work in such a way that wealth ‘trickles down’. But wealthy individually and companies on the whole tend to hoard their wealth so in practice what happens is that the wealth created by those at the bottom is hoovered up, increasing the value of property and putting basic… Read more »
I personally advocate a smaller state but agree with a wealth tax to fund it. Increasing income tax / corporate tax is a break on job creation. A wealth tax targeted at the rentier economy could fund services whilst lower personal taxes would enabling the wider economy to grow… and lead to more tax revenue.
In the west we have systems of governance which are based on capitalism and credit which, if tribalism and individualism remain unmoderated comprise a positive feedback cycle. Moderation is necessary to prevent exploitation and social unrest. It’s like a nuclear reactor. State regulation and periodic democratic elections are the control rods and the periodic reboot. Peterloo massacres and Bloody Sundays also work as does the occasional war which helps by generating a ‘we are all in this together’ psychology for a while. Bit like Brexit. You can minimise the amount of regulation you need if individuals who have developed self… Read more »
But too much state control also has its problems: as we have seen with the decadence at No.10 and some of the vast wastage as well as challenges with our energy policy as the state rather then markets have made decisions.
Balance of both is usually best…. Although as things become increasingly tribal it feels like that’s unlikely.
It’s all in the stars. The year 2012 was the end of the Mayan calendar ( the end of the world 😊) and the year Richard IIIs remains were found; England was reminded it has a Plantagenet heart. In 2013 David Cameron announced the EU referendum. We have moved from the age of Pices into the age of Aquarius. This has triggered a world-wide outbreak of nationalism: Brexit (aka English nationalism), Ukraine Vs Russia, the Republic of Barbados, pressure for Scottish independence, Taliban government in Afghanistan, Sinn Fein takeover of NI assembly. People everywhere are rediscovering their cultural identity. We… Read more »
You spend money on home built stuff and the money circulates round and taxes actually bring money into the treasury. Wooden dollars. Thats one reason Russia can afford to spend so much effectively on defence. I would guess its actually close to 20% of GDP looking at the kit they have and the state of the rest of their economy. If the west had any leaders worth their salt I would wait for Russia to go into Ukraine and ratchet up low intensity trouble with them. That would mean bringing Nato military up to the border and engaging in cross… Read more »
All of those things, funded by greater tax.
Problem is who pays that tax.
The government is meant to be increasing corporation tax from 19% to 25% next year. That would do it nicely but should be brought forward to now.
Vanity projects such as hs2? It hasn’t gone far enough. Scotland not even included is a disaster. Tying Manchester and London together with just over an hour commute will be fantastic.
The so called benefits budget is over 80% Pensions. Your figures exclude NI only incl. Income Tax.
Are you suggesting that public servants shouldn’t get pay rises? We should tax more particularly the rich to pay for it.
I think front line staff should get paid far more: Nurses, fireman and our armed forces. The Civil Servants who work on average less than 30 hours a week, but still get paid more then people undertaking similar roles in the private sector, and do an absolutely piss poor job as we see (particularly relevant to this forum) in the majority of public sector procurements. Yes they should be paid far less: and whilst I accept some people think we should have a bigger state and others a smaller one I find it hard to imagine how anyone could justify… Read more »
Why would it be so hard to do? This Govt is getting away with daylight robbery, I worked on the 119 line as a consultant… Parliament Select Cmtte complained about the number of consultants to NHS staff was almost 1:1 and consultants earning £1k per day; myself and circa 800 other consultants earned £8.91 gross on any day upto 23:00… the Govt has earmarked £37Bn for this work… They’ve written off circa £14Bn in payments due to fraud / overpayments. They’ve found circa £15Bn spare in the budget. Shall we forget £5Bn spaffed on Ajax? This country can pay if… Read more »
Absolutely right and what’s more disdainful is that we are a global power, second only in reach, to the former 13 colonies! To be spending such meagre sums on our defence is a scandal. 3% minimum on defence! It should be written in our laws. A huge drag on the uk economy must be the public sector wage and pension bill and the pension bill more generally as aforesaid. I think this is the problem, the taxpayer is a milch cow, we have very few exporting uk businesses, a public sector, namely the nhs needing critical reform, more generally departmental… Read more »
Again, I’m personally in favour of a defence budget increase. You don’t need to convince me.
I just feel that the public wouldn’t be too enthusiastic if they were taxed extra or funds from something else e.g. NHS, pensions, education etc were slashed to pay for it.
Even an I’m crease to 2.5% would be significant. They could achieve instant wins by reversing SDSR 2021 cuts. That can be done immediately if they aren’t already irreversible.
The obvious target is the legacy Foreign Aid budget. A more precisely targeted set of defined outcomes, audited and reported, in specific areas of social significance rather than the blanket approach. Why is the U.K. sending aid to Pakistan, India or China? Currently U.K. foreign aid is around 14 thousand million. A lot of this goes to countries who don’t and won’t vote for us or our nearest allies in international fora.
Hi TypewriteMonkey, I noticed the look on Lavrov’s face when he met Truss as well. He was clearly angry and I wondered if the Russian’s had assumed that they would get another slap on the hand for bullying Ukraine and that the West’s response – patchy though it is – was unexpected. What most dictatorships fail to understand is that democracies tend to be a little slow off the mark when pressured in this way, but when they do respond they tend to do so on ‘declared’ principled grounds which in turn adds a degree of backbone to their actions.… Read more »
Your last point is an interesting subject. The current exercises in Belarus are scheduled to end on the 20th Feb. Given time zone differences I understand that will be pretty much the same time as the olympic flame is extinguished in Beijing !
There is also a major exercise underway in Ukraine, also to the 20th. There is a view that the heavy Russian presence in Belarus is an attempt to keep the Ukrainians ‘honest’.
The looks on Putin’s and Lavrov’s faces are almost certainly frustration not fear. Frustration at the lack of western diplomats professionalism and lack of understanding of Russia’s fears.
Your suggestion of March is fair but I would say April. Any boot sticking in is down to what Ukraine chooses to do.
You have previously claimed to be British, but you seem every so keen to excuse everything the Russians do.
And again, you only appear on articles about Russia. You seem to have no actual interest in UK Defence matters.
I am. Happy to point out their failures when they happen. You must be missing the comments I make on our defence issues but I do make them.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Occasional grammatical eccentricities but most likely not Russian. More C.N.D.-Stop the War propagandist.
Ah, so just a useful tool then?
Got it.
But Russia is so strong what does it have to fear, and Putin is so popular what does he individually have to fear ! The irony from Putin is incredible, ‘if you don’t stop being scared and paranoid about us right now we will be forced to invade you’ If the consequences for the Russian and Ukrainian people weren’t so dire it would be hilarious. In all seriousness it feels like the last desperate roll of the dice by a leader who has had his time and is clinging to power. Create the big diversion…not to say there aren’t those… Read more »
‘The looks on Putin’s and Lavrov’s faces are almost certainly frustration not fear. Frustration at the lack of western diplomats professionalism and lack of understanding of Russia’s fears.’
Fears you claim in one breath they don’t experience. Perhaps we westerners should throw Ukraine to the crocodile and hope it isn’t hungry when it gets to us?
Ukraine to the crocodile certainly seems to be the intention of the US/UK given that they are pulling almost everything out and Biden has said no US military help, even in pulling their own nationals out.
They must feel pretty alone and abandoned now.
I think, they prioritised antagonising ‘the west’ rather than improving the standard of living for many ordinary Russians. While it’s long gone, the USSR left behind many complex legacies that have proven to be difficult to resolve. Let’s hope this fizzles out somehow.
He also has the slight problem of a Russian athlete doping scandal involving a minor, ie 15-year old, athlete.
The Chinese may not be very happy about that.
Lavrov’s job is to represent his country right or wrong. Personally he might want to compromise. He is an experienced diplomat, a patriot and a decent family man by all accounts. He is probably just stressed out by having been given mission impossible by his boss.
TM wrote:
I honestly feel that the handover of 2000 MBTLAWs by the Uk, Similar amounts of Javelins by the US/Estonia, Stingers and the Grom from Estonia and Poland wasn’t one they were expecting meaning that whilst Moscow would no doubt roll over the Ukrainians , it now would come at a cost, which could and would cost him back at home in the popularity stakes if Russians (especially those from the far east started returning home in body bags)
Don’t forget the 152mm ammo given by the Czechs.
The Russians can only go ‘so far’ with the US and as we’ve been quite forthright they seem to have singled the UK out from the pack to be the panto villains for the domestic agenda. Would make sense on their part, we’re nominally a big player, at least in NATO, not much point trying to whip up an angry mob on the back of Estonia being the bad guys. Just my take but soooooo much of this seems based on ego and short term political gain (the two are pretty much entwinned) and when it gets to that point… Read more »
‘they seem to have singled the UK out from the pack to be the panto villains for the domestic agenda.’ Many years ago, just after Putin rocked up for Round One of the musical chairs with Medvedev, I saw a report on Putin and his youth movement (these dictators always have one of those). He was filmed speaking to a small group for the benefit of the camera. He was promising to punish Great Britain but in very strange and very intense way. I felt then that he has a special animus against this country, perhaps dating back to his… Read more »
TM, I don’t know what report your read/saw about the Truss/Lavrov meeting but your conclusion seems strange. She went all the way to Moscow at her request, met probably the most senior and skilled diplomat there is and spouted a stream of propaganda, whilst making no attempt to extend the discussions. She made an idiot of herself when she said that Rostov was not in Russia, rather than ask our Ambassador beside her, the Peter Principle on full display. The English readout of Lavrov’s press Q&A after the meeting is devastating, no wonder he stormed off at the end leaving… Read more »
Let be honest Ivan your love for Autocracy/dictators and your lack of understanding the difference between them and democracies ,Truss could given the speech of the year and you would still side with Lavrov such is your warped mind lol.
Hi Dave, I would have been very pleased to have been able to say that Truss had a constructive two way dialogue with Lavrov, like Macron had with Putin, but sadly it was not to be. Did you see the part where she was so rude that she talked over the interpreter, apparentlty not interested in what the last Russian had said? I don’t think she speaks Russian but Lavrov has to tell her not to do it. Clearly too set on pushing her pre-scripted point regardless and not used to working with interpreters, making the two translators talk on… Read more »
Expanding an earlier comment. Then there was another gaff when Lavrov asked clueless Truss “Do you recognize the sovereignty of Russia over the Rostov and Voronezh regions?” Truss pauses and says; “Great Britain will never recognize Russian sovereignty over these regions.” Only to be told by her Ambassador that they were in Russia not Ukraine.
Deary me. I too read of this. Both clearly in Russia to anyone with basic knowledge of Russian geography surely. Close by, but Russian.
She was too hasty.
Rule number one in diplomacy, if you don’t know ask someone who does, especially when they are sitting next to you. Not really hasty, more like arrogance.
The World was watching and it was noted. Remember when that other English woman was FM, or whatever they call it, of the EU?
So,
You don’t think she was set up to fall. its what the Russians do, in which to try and claim the moral high ground. And JIMK, do you really think that Russian can claim such a lofty postion?
That may be correct but she didn’t have to step into the trap. Generally no but they do have a point in the OSCE agreements.
The world wasn’t watching, with all the flurry of diplomacy around, it was Boris in Warsaw / Truss in Moscow / Macron back in Paris / Scholtz in Washington, etc. … and consequently didn’t give a flying monkey’s (…) I’m pretty sure he set up that Rostov trap, he’s possibly the best diplomat in the world, shame he works for Russia. Though I have no warm feelings towards Truss, particularly re. her tank photo ops, etc., well, this’ll teach her a lesson not to get into ‘heated’ exchanges, but she’ll learn. p.s. your English is remarkable (respect), though a bit… Read more »
I’m sure he did, her mistake was not getting advice from the lady next to her, a real diplomat, who must have been cringing.
Nice of you to say so but my English should be not too bad as I’ve been speaking it for 73/4 odd years. Probably spoke my first words in a quarter on RAF Uxbridge and wrote my first words at Middle Wallop. As Dad was a Wg Cdr posted to Germany the RAF paid for half of my education as well as 3 return flights to Dusseldorf, in BEA Viscounts.
Looking at that further, seems she also confused the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, unless that was a very brief slip of the tongue.
Whatever, its another own goal Russia will exploit.
Supplying ones Baltic allies via the Black Sea does seem to be a stretch.
So was that a trick question he put to her then? Ask is somewhere in Russia allowed to be Russian? I missed the context it was asked in
To extend that comment, Truss now admits that she took the Russian regions mentioned by Lavrov for Ukrainian regions run by Russian-backed separatists, if so it becomes clear that she couldn’t remember the names of Donetsk and Luhansk. The very regions her visit to Moscow was about. Also, Lavrov didn’t walk out on Truss, they were finished so he went to the door first and held it open for her, a gent! But after Truss adds the above to her previous faux pas saying that “the UK will support our Baltic state allies across the Black Sea” the Russian Foreign… Read more »
‘Also, Lavrov didn’t walk out on Truss, they were finished so he went to the door first and held it open for her, a gent! ‘
Preceded by
‘no wonder he stormed off at the end leaving her there’
If you are going to dissemble and distort at least try to get the distortions to agree with each other.
I revised my comment as further information came out i.e. the full video not a cropped one.
Your joking right. Macron was grandstanding, nothing more. He faces an election shortly and that was what is visit was all about. Do you nothing about politicians ?
Of course he was electioneering, but his problem is that unless he achieves something it was all for nothing. That is why he was trying so hard.
I think the civil servants agree the outcomes in advance and old lap dog was not getting any change from Truss or her minions hence his angry expression. She was not there to kiss his backside !
I saw the public appearance at the end, when they were both speaking in front of the cameras. Maybe she sounded like an intransigent stuck record in the meeting, but all she could do was to communicate western resolve on the issue. If Macron got nothing, there was no way the Russians would ever concede anything to her. In the longer term, there needs to be a discussion about the fate of Crimea and the breakaway provinces. Maybe with a fair and internationally monitored vote they could choose if they want to be part of Ukraine or Russia?
I read the transcript. We don’t know what Macron achieved but sadly but probably expectedly the Normandy Four meeting today in Berlin has ended without apparent progress. Crimea is now Russian come Hell or high water. But Russia wants the Donbas to stay in Ukraine mainly one suspects as a counter to pro Western attitudes to the north and west of the country. There is already an agreed by all parties plan for Ukraine, the Minsk deal which gives the country a more federal structure, with the regions having much more power than now, a bit like the US.
Sounds about right. Hopefully it can be resolved peacefully.
I’m with you on that. In the end it will depend on actions taken in Ukraine, we just have to hope that the pressure to implement Minsk overcomes any other pressures being applied. As I have said elsewhere here, we probably won’t know for sure before NS2 starts operation in the summer.
Read Supportive Bloke comment below , it sort of gun downs your argument.
The talk with Macron was interesting but the only real point to come out of it was more talks with him will be useful in keeping diplomacy going, the talks with Germany next week I think it is will be important for the same reason. This talk with Truss only confirms the UK can now be dismissed and no further talks are needed. For me the more interesting discussion have been with China and Iran
LOL spinning it there a bit Ulya Macron visit was a bit of comedy, Truss just gave Lavrov some hard truths and as Putin has got himself into a hell of a mess as some posters have commented , if Putin backs down from invading the Ukraine he loses as NATO will not concede to his demands, the Germans should not help Putin cause to much that went when Merkel left the stage , So his option seems to be a bloody war with the Ukraine and then blame the west for sanctions that will come afterwards , the old… Read more »
I can understand your view regarding Macron, he came to Russia wanting to talk, Truss came wanting to lecture, neither had anything to offer, but as I said, there is no reason to discuss anything further with the UK so they will be dismissed, there will be more talks with Macron and then Germany. We are only in the early stage of these talks, they will continue for months so you will have plenty of time to speculate about this Russian invasion and I will have plenty of time to see how much self interest takes precedence in Europe. I… Read more »
You are right, on one hand there is the pressure for war and on the other is diplomacy but this is a sideshow. As you say, the really important stuff for Russia is now based around Iran and China as Halford Mackinder’s worst fears are, due to the stupidity of the US/UK, coming towards us at an exponential pace.
Correct John, Ukraine really is a side show to me, even if some sort of deal is made between NATO and Russia I have no faith they will honour it, they haven’t with any other agreement. The most important point in all this is Russian public and government are slowly understanding we need to switch our focus, we have always been Europe focus, Asia second, we now need to be more focused on China, central Asian republics, Iran, Iraq, Syria etc, Europe needs to be nothing more than secondary market with only enough diplomatic connection to maintain civil relationship. Obviously… Read more »
Never lose a chance to lose the plot. Whatever Truss’s shortcomings she isn’t invading anyone or threatening to do so. Your pals are.
‘met probably the most senior and skilled diplomat there is’
Lavrov is a thug. Look at Syria.
‘no wonder he stormed off at the end leaving her there’
Really skillful diplomacy.
Shotcomings we really should ecpect to see in our 3rd most senior politician. Mind you, as far as I can see the UK MSM have not mentioned any of it.
Would you rather Syria look like Libya?
I got the ‘storming off wrong’. He was actually closer to the door and as he was closest and they were finished, he went to open it for her. A gent!
Totally agree. Truss is a muppet.
Mind you few in the UK are aware as the incidents don’t seem to have been mentioned much if at all in the MSM.
No, they are just acting angry for domestic purposes. They are pumping out the Western unreasonable NATO bullies arguments. You are OK to get angry if you are being bullied. They are also as you say a bit scared as they have overplayed their hand a lot. Massive buildup. No sign of NATO concessions. So rock and hard-place Rock = invade and suffer massive casualties -> domestic problems Hard Place = stand down and wipe egg from face – > accept reality that Russia is not really a Soviet level power Even Micron has been shut down after his silly… Read more »
I think you’re right.
And I think you hit the nail on the head there Putin has painted himself in a corner and macron visit was pure comedy I real find it hard to fathom how he got to such a lofty position.
Exactly. Putin is in zugzwang – any move he makes leads to worse outcomes. He cannot stay as he is; if he moves on Ukraine even in a limited way he loses an lingering defence of his position among the European foot draggers but achieves an amazing international unity against Russia. N.A.T.O. wins. Or, he retreats having done nothing to justify his bellicosity losing his grip on the nationalist power base that is the sole purpose of his actions always.
Putin and Lavrov are fighting for their political lives. Catching Truss out in a Q&A won’t be enough.
Maybe.
The problem is a lot of the Russian population believes Putin’s post truth information.
But, as you say, if this goes wrong the whole Putinisphere could blow up.
Increase our spending-this would need to be immediate and involve the urgent acquisition of kit. This is NOT 1939 and WW2 when we could churn out Spitfires at dozens per week. In essence we are stuck with what we have now in the medium term.
To be honest no current increase in defence spending would help the situation now. Had defence not been slashed by George Osborne in 2010/11 we’d be in a better position now.
Comparing now to 1939; does anyone know how long it would take to hypothetically build more Typhoons, for example? I’m guessing 6 months for an airframe, but that’s purely speculation.
It is more the signal that is sent by clearly saying ‘Will will invest properly’ Somethings can be done ‘overnight’ like add US cleared weapons to P8 or bring USMC F35B into theatre. Smoke signals, like saying Mk41 VLS will be fitted to T31, would back up ex 1SL smoke signals in parliament when he discussed the same. A lot of smaller bits have been entering service recently slightly ahead of schedule. This is mostly because they have not been stalled to massage cash flow. The stuff that is needed to send the message isn’t more massive investment just the… Read more »
Imo the stuff that could be achieved quickly would be filling in some for-but-not-with gaps, perhaps speeding up some stuff in production (longer shifts for a period are possible etc).
Perhaps equip our forces better for the Black Sea environment.
Nothing really strategic, though.
I think we need some Irish Fishermen in those conveniently define no-go zones in the Black Sea.
I see that Commissar Corbyn has intervened on “the buildup of NATO forces in Ukraine”, though that is off-topic for here.
Just keep what we have got, re tranche 1 Typhoon. Give them the same simple update that Spain did to theirs.
I wish she’d swotted up on her geography a bit more before hand though.
Or had some basic grasp of how to handle the hostile Putinesque press in Russia. The question was irrelevant. She should have said the issue is Ukraine and nothing else.
I don’t think she knew. A quick go over of a map (that her aides and civil servants should have forced her to) would have adverted the error.
But it’s nothing. That she’s not the brightest is not news.
The Russian economy is kept going by its carbon exports, Oil and Gas. So with the world needing to transition to green fuels, the demand for these will decline long term.
Yep but what won’t decline in near term is plastics in all its forms. A bye product of oil and gas. Materially cut oil and gas and there would be a shortage of those elements extracted from hydrocarbons to make plastics and composits, as well as fertilisers. Green fuel is the right way to go but it will come at a price in other areas. Finding sustainable replacement for plastics in sufficient volumes is a long way off.
After having to endure Macron for 6 hours personally I thought he was remarkably calm.
Interesting you saw that, a Ukrainian expert from Chatham House said that this had little to nothing to do with NATO it was all about the weakening of Russia on the World stage and internal problems especially the economy building that is striking at Putin’s ego, and he blames the West. Then an official with Macron on returning home release his take about how shocked he was about how angry Putin appeared spending most of the time in their meeting lecturing about how badly Russia has been treated esp since the end of the Cold War and having to be… Read more »
I agree. This crisis is to distract from Putin’s increasingly shaky position at home. As a Sometime Senior Naval person said Russia is trying to over match its peers on the budget of Italy.
The days of the defence dividend are long gone. Defence spending must increase. Anybody who denies this has their head well and truly in the sand.
Putin looks tired and bored, not demonstrating the machismo he was formerly known for.
So how many aircraft will that be in Cyprus in total?
We currently have 9 Typhoons in Cyprus. 6 aircraft dedicated to Op Shader, and 3 in service reserves so they can rotate aircraft and complete maintenance. Maybe another 6-8 could be going. I’m sure we will find out in due course. If they are increasing the current number to a full sqn, then it could be 12 in total.
4 Typhoons from IX(B) Sqn out of Lossie in Romania, 9 Typhoons from II(AC) Sqn and others at Akrotiri (6 active and 3 reserve) on Op Shader. Also RQ-9 Reapers operate from Cyprus and Kosovo. Smaller numbers of C-130, A400, C-17, Voyager, Shadow and RC-135 are deployed as part of 83 Expeditionary Air Group too. 3 Griffins (AB412) provide SAR at the air base.
If another Sqn is deployed should be 6-9 airframes.
I’d be surprised if a whole other squadron was deployed! I read it as adding to the 9 already operating from Akrotiri to make a larger/full squadron.
Not quite sure what value sending more Typhoons to Cyprus really has in this situation.
Increasing the numbers, even by just three aircraft and their pilots, will increase the availability of the aircraft in the immediate airspace, allowing more patrols (if needed) and more of a surge capability show the poop hit fan.
Makes defensive sense.
Is a Squadron really only 6-9 nowadays? That’s nothing.
12 I think, but packets of 4, 6 or 9 are usually forward deployed.
I take it the U2s out of Akrotiri are on overtime at the mo?
Out of curiosity, does Akrotiri have any anti-missile defenses? I would presume a Rapier system or land-ceptor is in place, but I don’t actually know! Can anyone enlighten me? Thank you
M@
Bit of a dodgy question to answer right now, don’t you think?
I don’t think it has any as the only permanent overseas deployment of Rapier and now Sky Sabre that ever gets mentioned is at Mount Pleasant in The Falklands. I’m sure some could be deployed if necessary.
Nothing, like everywhere else bar MPA. If that has changed due to events it’s not reported.
I suspect the type 45 would be in and around there for that precise reason
That, is an excellent point.
All T45 at home (UK) in bits .
It has been reported Diamond will deploy.
Just because ships are alongside many will be able to deploy within certain timeframes, some at surprisingly short notice.
GB explained all this recently.
It doesn’t seem smart to me to deploy ships into the Black Sea, If it all kicks off do they risk getting into a scrap? Would they be chased out? Russians threaten her?
Is it confirmed she will go to the Black Sea, or Med, NATO air defence?
Well it was announced A Type 45 and River B2 would be deployed to the Black Sea so I assume that’s still the plan unless I’ve missed an update somewhere?
Simply not true 🤷🏻♂️
Not true – don’t believe sensationalist newspaper headlines. 2 in port after CSG21 but fully armed, with experienced crews and at high readiness. One coming out of PIP – will need to do FOST and work-up crew, but available.
Or a GP T23 with Ceptor……?
That’s exactly what happened in 2018 when US, UK and France hit those chemical storage plants, HMS Duncan sat between Syria and Akrotiri to provide Air Defence.
At this point in time there will be lots of things going on that are not reported
Some will be done
– obviously for the benefit of the watching Russians; and
– others will be done covertly.
Let’s put it this way.
It would be an ideal and sensible place to store a Land Ceptor rig. Or as U2 are based there I’m sure other options would be available as this is an alliance effort?
Allow me to play Devils Advocate. Scotland leaves the UK and gets a PM like Corbyn. McCorbyn decides he wishes to join the(successor to) the Warsaw Pact and Russia places Jets and Observers in Glasgow.. How does the rUK react? Just saying Gents-don’t shoot me down. I am trying to get into their shoes to understand what is going on in their heads!!
Thats an interesting train of thought, yesterday Starmer berated Corbyn, Abbott and the STW crowd. In return Abbott tweeted the below, which is strange (well actually it isn’ t for Abbott) as Starmer was very much agaisnt going into iraq in 2003 with plenty of evidence to support that . So I decided to have a butchers at the STW crowd and couldnt help but notice that the map they posted of the Ukraine overlapped with the NATO flag, doesn;t do similar for the Crimea and the Russian one, This promoting the message that NATO is at fault here. I’m… Read more »
Ha! The enemy within. They’ll never change. And still millions voted for Labour despite him at the helm.
All speculation, of course, but I don’t think rUK would be silly enough actually invade Scotland. At least, I hope not. Plus, I don’t think the Scottish would act like that to the rUK. I think, if it came to it, that it would be peaceful and democratic… which is what the resolution of the Ukraine situation should be as well.
Agree TW- if Scotand left the UK it would be an enormously sad but very civilised split and still ever the best of friends-I was just trying to reverse situations and attempt to understand what is going on in Putins head, but no matter how I try to see things from his side, all I see is a madman willing to at ‘best’ send thousands to their deaths and destroy the Russian economy-at worst Armageddon!
Would the Scottish public stand for Russian or Chinese forces to be based in an independent Scotland? Seems like an odd thing to do after ‘escaping’ the English yoke.
Political parties need public support to Govern. Having large amounts of civil disobedience would crash a Government.
If rUK or Eng was an aggressive dictatorship constantly trying to undermine and threatening to invade your independent Scot, with a defence budget of £250 billion, a 700,000 troops……..well yes you could understand Scotland wishing to join a DEFENSIVE alliance. But then WP was never really defensive in mind, except that it was a buffer zone for the USSR.
we occupy their “bandwidth” ?? donne moi un break, Boris!
The Rasputitsia has not started yet.
First, we have the best trained men and women in uniform anywhere in the world and I would dare anyone to say we don’t. I also wanted to thank each one of them for their service to our country. Thank you. If it comes to a shooting match over Ukraine, it makes me wonder just how long we can stay in the fight with such paltry equipment numbers. Of course, we wouldn’t be in it by ourselves – thankfully. However, if we considered an all out toe-to-toe air campaign, I dare say we would shoot down more MIGs and Sukhoi’s… Read more »
An interesting read on missile development can be found via this link.
Meteor still has an advantage it would appear.
“Nonetheless, the PL-15 is the weapon of concern for the rest of the world, having an ability to match up to the long-range engagement envelope of the MBDA Meteor and the Russian R-37M.
It possibly outranges the USAF’s latest version of the AMRAAM, the AIM-120D; precisely the reason why Lockheed Martin has been urgently tasked to develop the AIM-260 and restore the balance back in favour of the United States Air Force.”
https://sameerjoshi73.medium.com/east-vs-west-a-status-report-on-the-ongoing-air-to-air-missile-cold-war-ed2a1cb1323
Now 18 months old but a very good analysis. Thanks.
After the conference call between the NATO leaders this evening the UK Gov have just announced that UK nationals are to get out of Ukraine. This follows the US taking the same action yesterday.
They obviously have some ominous intel. If Putin does invade after all the promises not to then there can be no further doubt that more appeasement is not going to work. We will need the full sanctions implemented, major reinforcements sent east and circle the wagons (metaphorically speaking) as far as NATO politics.
About the only option left on the table to dissuade him, the one that requires the big balls plays out as follows: Belarussian neighbours say they are unhappy with the formal explanation Belarussia has given for its military’s exercises under the OCSE protocols which require members to publish the exact forces and plans for military drills if a member questions it within 48 hours. They submitted the request yesterday. OCSE members and Ukraine make a joint request to NATO for a no-fly zone over Ukraine for the countries and their own protection. NATO sets up a no-fly zone over Ukraine… Read more »
Geez, Johnson’s words don’t make any more sense in written form do they, can he not put a clear and succinct sentence together at all that is easy and to understand, it’s not like he was brought up on an inner London Estate.
Should’ve been replaced weeks ago or resigned if he had any decency. Times like this we need wisdom & talent, not philandering, lying, D-rate, pseudo celebs. He’s just grandstanding & hoping appearing statesmanlike(for those gullible enough) will save his tenure at number 10 partygate central.
I have no idea what will happen re Putin & Ukraine. If it gets nasty, the UK Gov will need to keep up RAF fighter numbers. The easiest, cheapest way, is not to scrap the tranche 1 Typhoon, but to give them the simple update similar to Spain.
UK Citizens are also being told to leave, this is becoming very tense indeed where one incorrect decision could lead to all-out war. It seems any chance of a diplomatic solution being reached is almost exhausted with few avenues left to pursue. Ukraine tensions: Russia invasion could begin any day, US warnsPublished 11 minutes ago “US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Russian forces were now “in a position to be able to mount a major military action” in remarks seen as a clear escalation in the urgency of warnings from US officials. “We obviously cannot predict the future, we… Read more »
Surely we should be augmenting our small armed forces with the volunteer and regular reserves right now. Everyone to the TA centre toot suite.
If nothing else it would be a useful exercise to see how long it takes to achieve this.
I had a conversation on here some years back with Daniele in relation to our home defences and prioritising future investment in land-based anti-ship and air systems to create a layered approach for the UK as we had to some degree during the cold war.
I hope the lack of it at present doesn’t come back to bite us in the arse!
I remember, Nigel.
I’m 100% certain, the UK mainland isn’t going to be invaded anytime soon. But it’s Nigel Collins, and I’m pretty sure he’s about 14 years old.
Evening mate.
No, not invaded. But I’ve changed my view regards SAM. I think the case for them is growing, given our reduced basing footprint and limited force size.
I still don’t agree with Coastal ASM though, not with the geographical challenges the Russian navy face.
Hi mate. Right now, I’d so no to both. I think a deployable air defence system is crucial. But, until the UK has a direct military threat, I think the resources are better spent elsewhere. Even during the cold War we didn’t exactly go to town on this kind of stuff. And despite all the fuss about Russia and Ukraine ect, the Russian hordes coming over the North Sea are not expected anytime soon. Ballistic missile defence using T45 and integrating with NATO assets (mainly US Navy) might a better way to go. Diplomatic negotiations with Russia and global stability… Read more »
Communication intercepts between Russian units today say Putin has authorized D-day for next Wednesday. NATO are still attempting to shine a light on his actions, announce what hes planning to do before he does it then he has no cover for his actions and has to constantly change his plans if he wants to play the victim.
F16s now moved up from Germany air base to Romanian air base along with a battery of air defence missles. So we’ve sent more typhoons to Cyprus and yanks F15s to Poland and F16s to Romania in the last 48hrs and let’s not forget the B52s. It does sound like we’re nearing the point of no return. How many A10s does the US have stationed in Germany they might be needed I’m sure the Russian tank crews would be very wary in they moved some A10s up close too. From the news this morning it’s very clear the west has… Read more »
If he wants to invade he’ll find an excuse that’s for sure.
This is Cold War 2 with China added into the mix. If we don’t to take this seriously and fail to increase our defence spending along with our European allies we’re going to be in a great deal of trouble sooner or later.
If Putin invades it will probably come right after the end of the Olympics. I’m sure the Chicoms told him they wouldn’t be happy if an invasion occurred while China was center stage.
Cypriots love the Russians. They won’t like this. Was the same during the Cold War. Russian spies roamed freely round Southern Cyprus.
I like how the americans offer Russia to view our missile bases in Europe but not in the states. They talk a big game but have done nothing. Russia have around 130 thousand troops and Britain send a cpl of thousand and what has Americans done???