Defence analysts have argued that they believe that China will try to invade Taiwan before 2025.

The claims were made in the latest episode of the popular defence podcast which discussed  hypersonic missiles, China’s face off with Taiwan and HMS Queen Elizabeth’s Carrier Strike Group deployment.

The podcast was hosted by well respected ‘Open Source Intelligence’ analysts @DefenceGeek@Osinttechnical@KyleJGlen@air_intel and features a guest appearance from @IsraelRadar_com.

A panellist said “I’m personally of the belief that there will be some sort of confrontation with China before 2025”, other panellists responded with their views. It’s worth a listen.

The episode can be found on Spotify:

Or TuneIn:

Or YouTube:

You can also visit our dedicated ‘The OSINT Bunker’ page here.

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Rob
Rob
1 month ago

Speculation BUT if the Chinese do gamble you can bet the Taiwanese would cause them mass casualties. Put in USN Carrier Battle Groups, submarines and airpower and you end up with absolute carnage even with only conventional weapons. Then add in the possible escalation caused by Japanese and S Korean involvement and then the possible escalation into the nuclear field – no the Chinese won’t gamble – far too risky. The Chinese will follow a strategy of will we won’t we to pile on the pressure but putting in a major amphibious operation in the face of the might of… Read more »

Netking
Netking
1 month ago
Reply to  Rob

While I don’t think it’s going to happen before 2025, I have the feeling that China will make a military move against Taiwan before the west is anticipating. From a military perspective, Its better for China to go for it sooner rather than later since they US is still trying to figure out the right posture to counter a move by them.

Daddy Mack
Daddy Mack
1 month ago
Reply to  Rob

Never under estimate your enemies but don’t over estimate your allies.
I would expect the Tainwanese to capitulate in face of a Chinese invasion almost as quickly as the Afgan Army did to the Taliban

Frank62
Frank62
1 month ago
Reply to  Daddy Mack

Why capitulate when it’s obvious from the Uighurs, HK etc that every Taiwanese who’s ever criticised the PRC etc will be sent to prison camps or worse & their way of life will be chillingly changed forever? Just so the CCP can claim a properganda coup for its vanity. Whose liberites & freedoms will be next? Have we learnt nothing from appeasing brutal dictators? George Orwells 1984 is alive & well in the PRC.

Daddy Mack
Daddy Mack
1 month ago
Reply to  Frank62

I’m sure there were plenty of Afgans that were fearful of the same fate from the Taliban, it didn’t make them fight any harder.

Posse Comitatus
Posse Comitatus
1 month ago
Reply to  Daddy Mack

I’m not so sure. The Taiwanese military, although much smaller than China’s are a professional, well trained and equipped force. They aren’t tribesmen more focused on past tribal conflicts and wholly dependent on Western support than they are in defending their country. Even allowing for no allied intervention (unlikely I think), they will fight hard and the Chinese will find their invasion attempt very bloody and costly. No plan survives first contact with the enemy. Thousands of bodybags of dead soldiers returning to China will seriously undermine public morale and the CCP grip on power. That’s before we even consider… Read more »

Jon
Jon
1 month ago

According to the Wiki, because of universal conscription, the Taiwanese army technically includes 1.6 million reservists. Home advantage is huge if they can use it. The reserve army is deemed underprepared and there’s a plan to bolster it. Also starting to come off the pipeline in a couple of years are locally built submarines, which could be devastating to an army trying to cross the Taiwan Straits. They would need to be hunted and cleared first. Recall the effect of the presence a single British submarine at the time of the Falklands conflict. It’s not just the bodybags coming home… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by Jon
Daddy Mack
Daddy Mack
1 month ago

Take onboard your points but I cannot reconcile how a small island off the coast off China can hold off the entire Chinese Army. They don’t even have to airstrike to cripple Command and Control, Radar and SAM. They have the missles to accomplish this before they even start flying aircraft over the Island prior to making the landing itself. China holds all the cards, they can pick the place and time war begins, they can neutralise air defence and establish air superiority, and from there it’s just a matter of how long before Tiawan is overrun. If war happened… Read more »

Posse Comitatus
Posse Comitatus
1 month ago
Reply to  Daddy Mack

Sure, on a purely numerical and geographical basis, there is virtually no doubt that China would/should eventually prevail in an invasion. My point though is that I don’t think it would be a walkover, the Taiwanese military are professional and motivated and will fight hard. Even the topography of Taiwan is difficult for an invasion force: mountains and forests and we know just how difficult it is to fight and manoeuvre in that terrain against a determined enemy. The loss of one or two Chinese carriers or landing ships could prove disastrous for the Beijing government. I take your point… Read more »

andy reeves
andy reeves
29 days ago

western technology coupled with proffessional servicemen/women will trump even bigger foes with its efficience

Nigel Collins
Nigel Collins
1 month ago
Reply to  Daddy Mack

This should serve as a very big wake-up call.

“The top US general has said China’s suspected hypersonic missile test is close to a Sputnik moment, referring to the Soviet satellite launch that sparked the Cold War arms race.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59072616

Meirion x
Meirion x
30 days ago
Reply to  Daddy Mack

The Taiwan Straits is much wider than the English Channel which held off the Germans in WW2 from invading Britain.
Germany was much more powerful in 1940 with a larger army and air force, than Britain.

Last edited 30 days ago by Meirion x
Tim
Tim
4 days ago
Reply to  Daddy Mack

Taiwan wouldn’t be fighting the entire Chinese military however ch8na would be fighting the whole Taiwan military China would have to keep troops based all over its land it has border disputes with every neighbour it can only deploy a part of its military

OOA
OOA
1 month ago
Reply to  Rob

Seems that there are 2 basic choices: confront China now while an element of superiority remains (and all the risks which this entails) or.. prepare for future rivalry and potentially also conflict increasingly on their terms. Unpalatable options and to my mind the latter only makes sense if robust alliances (notably including India) can emerge to make the risk of a PRC sally too large. Welcome to the new Cold War.

Martin
Martin
1 month ago
Reply to  OOA

China is likely close to its zenith in power much like Germany in the 1900’s and Russia in the 60’s. Just need to contain them long enough until gravity and demographics catch up with them. By the end of the century there population will be halfed and the west will be larger than today. The CCP won’t last forever.

Tim
Tim
1 month ago
Reply to  Martin

What makes u say that China in the past few years has taken the 1 child limit so I would assume in 10/20 years they will have major growth currently the whole military is made up of “little princes” (Chinese first and only born sons who get treated like little princes) you start dropping them in any large numbers and the general public won’t accept it in China it’s all about your name if you kill off the name u kill of the family line, also everything depends on the USA without the USA Taiwan would crumble but to take… Read more »

Andy a
Andy a
1 month ago
Reply to  Rob

Never assume enemy will make decisions that are logical to you. That’s what’s bitten the west in the past!
They don’t have same concern for loosing people, no press freedom.

Last edited 1 month ago by Andy a
Nicholas
Nicholas
1 month ago
Reply to  Rob

I think its entirely possible that an invasion could take place with hardly a shot being fired. The repercussions might be a different matter.

Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli
1 month ago

Hope they’re wrong! Considering Biden’s change of tack from decades long ambiguity to confirmation the US woukd get involved.

Locking Nut
Locking Nut
1 month ago

Do Biden’s comments actually count as a ‘change of tack’?

Given the seemingly absent-minded nature of his comments (and his demeanour in general) I’m not sure if it’s an accidental statement of US defense policy, or the sort of thing my old man used to randomly blurt out when he was in his ‘decline’.

Tommo
Tommo
1 month ago
Reply to  Locking Nut

I thought president Bidans main concerns prior to his statement on defending Taiwan against Chinese aggressions, was to withdrawal the troops from Vietnam, and too back the Sharh of Iran if he needed assistance all this after his afternoon nap 😴

BB85
BB85
1 month ago

Joe Biden’s advisors where quick to back track on his statements. The man can’t even remember the names of half his advisors nevers which makes you wonder who is actually running the country.

Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago

Hi D .The old man was clear in his statement last week that America will defend Taiwan if thy are attacked by China Vigilance remains the watchword!

Graham Moore
Graham Moore
1 month ago
Reply to  Klonkie

So the US is happy to take on Communist China militarily? Very bold.

Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago
Reply to  Graham Moore

I’m just starting what he said, that’s all. I cant see any party being happy about that. It wouldn’t go particularly well for China either.

Derek
Derek
1 month ago
Reply to  Klonkie

His press secretary rolled it back. They stated that there is no change in policy towards military intervention.

Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago
Reply to  Derek

Thanks Derek, does raise the question though- what would the USA do?

Frank62
Frank62
1 month ago

Hopefully, but after abandoning Afghanistan to Taliban repression & leaving our Kurdish allies to the Turks, we’ve given a lot of milage to those who would think the west is weak & lacks guts to back up our threats.

Supportive Bloke
Supportive Bloke
1 month ago
Reply to  Frank62

Post ‘82 a UK security guarantee meant something – we would be prepared fight and sustain losses.

Andrew Thorne
Andrew Thorne
1 month ago

They may well do but the key question what will the world do? The UK is bankrupt and so is the US so do we have the financial resource for sustained warfare in the South China sea? It would have to be a major multinational force and this obviously food and manufactured good supplies. The UK has stupidly managed to make sure our food supplies are most from outside the UK and our manufactured goods as well. If we went to war we would win but at what cost? We did this in WW1 when we were the only global… Read more »

Ron Stateside
Ron Stateside
1 month ago
Reply to  Andrew Thorne

The United States is the largest economy in the world and thus has vast, dreamy financial resources. Though far too much is spent on interest on the federal debt, the U.S. is far from bankrupt and saying that is absurd. It is not a person that has a 30 year work life to pay off a loan.

We are simply financially mismanaged by a myopic congress. When the going gets tough things might change.

Julian1
Julian1
1 month ago
Reply to  Ron Stateside

I’m sure Congress had. A Vite to raise the National debt limit a couple of weeks ago. Not bankrupt?

Julian1
Julian1
1 month ago
Reply to  Julian1

I mean senate voted

Graham Moore
Graham Moore
1 month ago
Reply to  Andrew Thorne

Are we bankrupt? We are a G7 economy with falling unemployment and good growth forecasts.

Supportive Bloke
Supportive Bloke
1 month ago
Reply to  Graham Moore

The falling unemployment may actually be the brake on growth.

Very low unemployment may cash a wage inflation spiral.

David Steeper
1 month ago

Very low unemployment =Higher pay growth=Higher Productivity or bankruptcy. Be optimistic.

Tommo
Tommo
1 month ago

S.B sorry my post to you on Inflation popped too the top of this discussion thread

Tim
Tim
1 month ago
Reply to  Andrew Thorne

The uk and the USA are far from bankrupt the USA is the reserve currency in the world and sterling is the 4th largest currency in the world

andrew
andrew
1 month ago

Well, they wont do it when Trump is president again that is for sure. Joe Biden is the most incompetent, useless, far left president in living memory. Yes he may be the most legitimate and popular president (lets go Brandon) in US history, but China are not worried about him. He cant even handle a border crisis he and her created let alone a power like China. America has gone from ‘America first’, to ‘America only’. Christ, only have to wait and see if the money printing spree he and she wants is passed and China can just sit back… Read more »

simon
simon
1 month ago
Reply to  andrew

Didnt Biden turn around a few weeks ago and say he would defend Taiwan ?

Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago
Reply to  simon

the statement was made last week- seemed clear and unambiguous to me

Steve
Steve
1 month ago
Reply to  Klonkie

Big difference between words and action. Whether the US wants to accept the casualties involved in a direct confrontation with China is highly questionable. I guess they could move assets there to prevent Chinese actions ahead of time, but they haven’t so far and I suspect it would require a major deployment.

Last edited 1 month ago by Steve
Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

That maybe true, but I’d like to think their word is their bond. Then again look at Poland 1939, UK didn’t lift a finger .

Frank62
Frank62
1 month ago
Reply to  Klonkie

We didn’t do much at the time & then let Stalin steal half of Poland post-war. But we did declare war against Germany & it ultimately led to the downfall of Nazi Germany. Maybe the PRC should take note. The USA & regional allies are very present in forces available to counter any PLA attack. If Taiwan is taken, who will be next?

Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago
Reply to  Frank62

I agree with your view.

Bernard Watson
Bernard Watson
1 month ago
Reply to  Klonkie

Your grasp of history is a little off, Klonkie.The UK didn’t lift a finger, you say??? The Nazi invasion of Poland was the very reason that the UK was the first Western country to declare war on Germany, thus starting WW2.

Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago
Reply to  Bernard Watson

Absolutely agree Bernard. My observation relates to aid/support sent to the Polish people was zero.

BB85
BB85
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory, if the US stationed troops there the communist government would consider it an outside invasion and use it as an excuse to launch an immediate invasion of their own.
Taiwan has plenty of boots on the ground of their own, if they where given equivalent support to Israel to build Iron dome and the ability to launch thousands of anti ship missiles into the Taiwan straight the would be a pretty hard nut to crack.

Tommo
Tommo
1 month ago
Reply to  BB85

BB85 At this present moment ,American green berets are training Taiwanese troops ,whether they’ve been training these troops for quite sometime or since Biden became President who knows ,but I don’t believe that Americas involvement with the Taiwanese military is just for a Photoshoot

Meirion x
Meirion x
1 month ago
Reply to  BB85

A bit like saying, because Britain is only 22 miles across the water from France, It is part of France. At least Taiwan is 96 miles away from China! I have not heard USA saying Cuba is party of USA as it is only 90 miles away!

Last edited 1 month ago by Meirion x
simon alexander
simon alexander
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

agree, is US ready to accept casualties, likewise does China want to loose its massive trade surplus and investments with US. the insecure geopolitics probably suits the China leadership.

Mr Bell
Mr Bell
1 month ago
Reply to  Klonkie

I think Biden’s statement was strategically very sound. By stating the US will defend Taiwan you can bet the Chinese are now trying to calculate a difficult set of sums. 1) what is Taiwans maximum defence capability and how quickly and effectively can Taiwan mobilise. Seeing as they test mobilisation and anti invasion drills regilarly. Id say pretty quick 2) what force can China bring to bear against Taiwan and would a mobilisation in preperation for military conflict be noticed. Seeing as China practiced embarking 10 brigades onto amphibious warfare ships recently. Id think China has the means to land… Read more »

Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago
Reply to  Mr Bell

Good points you raise, in particular point 5 . I’d be surprised if China’s thinks the gain outweighs the loss. Just doesn’t make sense.

Steve
Steve
1 month ago
Reply to  Mr Bell

My guess is China could stop US intervention through the threat of land based missiles. If the US lost an aircraft carrier or two early on, with the corresponding loss of life, the support for the war would rapidly change in the US. Especially as we are coming off the back of the failures in Iraq/afgan. As you state the trick is landing enough troops in surprise, so the US doesn’t have time to deploy subs, after that most of the supplies could be air lifted in avoiding concerns of tne subs. Plus the distance isn’t huge and so China… Read more »

Paul42
Paul42
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

I would imagine the US would target and destroy any land based missiles that would threaten its carriers. Indeed I think the Chinese would know and expect that. Meantime China’s precious carriers and general surface fleet would also be targeted and destroyed by US/allied subs. At the end of the day, what will China gain?

Steve
Steve
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul42

China gain is they get back what they think is theirs and eliminate the national disgrace around the loss, plus remove a major US ally from their backyard. On what basis are we defining the Chinese subs as loud?, as we know electric subs have been very effective operating close to shore against carriers etc, which would be the likely battlefield. I doubt it would be all one way thing with the US /allies subs, I suspect the losses would rapidly hit both sides, especially as it will be entirely in range of airborn sub hunters from the mainland. I… Read more »

Mr Bell
Mr Bell
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

Hi Steve. Just what fellow submariners have gone on record to state. Chinese subs are easy to detect and noisy. The PLAN submarine force is 1970-1980s technology currently, although recent espionage and capture of Barracuda class Submarine designs from France will likely lead to a leapfrog in design and capability. Expect to see a Chinese Baracuda in the near future. Warships IFR did a report about QE CSG type 23s and Merlins easily detecting and tracking 3 Chinese diesel electric class subs. You can bet Artful had a locked on targetting solution on all 3. They have numbers but if… Read more »

Steve M
Steve M
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

Thats the crux of the problem now, ‘The West Rely on China’s manufacturing base’ which the current climate has just re-inforced the amount of western companies shutting down/reducing production due to lack of componemts coming from China due to CO-vid lock/shut downs will have just proved in thier eyes that the threat of stopping goods will be enough to stop the US & EU from retaliating. Until the West starting manufacturing it’s own low level consumbles in sufficient quantities to have an effect on China’s economy and reduce the dependence this won’t change their perspective.

Steve
Steve
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve M

There is zero chance of the west being able to replace Chinese cheap goods. We have seen with brexit, that local workers just don’t want the cheap jobs and we need eastern European workers for it. Same happened with America and Mexico. The best option for the west is to hope for a more diverse approach from the other emerging markets. Plenty of other countries in Asia that could compete with china on cheap labour/lack of health and safety/no care about the environment (irony of UK gov allowing poluation of our waters aside), but that won’t happen over night, it… Read more »

Frank62
Frank62
1 month ago
Reply to  andrew

If Trump becomes president again that’s probably the end of American democracy. Putin & The CCP love idiots like Trump, so easily manipulated.

BB85
BB85
1 month ago

That statement is hilarious if you actually think there is any difference between mainstream Dems and Republicans they are two sides of the same coin and they only serve power and money.

Ron Stateside
Ron Stateside
1 month ago
Reply to  BB85

Democrats are fighting for coal and handgun companies???

A foreigner who thinks he knows more about another’s domestic political situation is the definition of delusional narcissism.

that guy
that guy
1 month ago

Great, another thing to look forward to!

Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago

The Chinese are if one thing pragmatic. There is little gain from invading Taiwan. On balance, the economic loss and geo political cost will be severe. Whichever way one looks at this, China is beholden to a high preforming economy, jus like we in the West. That’s a lot to gamble.

That being said, who foresaw the Argentina Junta’s actions in1982!

Quentin D63
Quentin D63
1 month ago
Reply to  Klonkie

Beware of the little guy in the fight! I think China would be idiotic to invade both reputationally and likely do huge damage to the very infrastructure and industry technology they would want to obtain let alone to get the Taiwanese people on side. All this talk of invasion will surely spur Taiwan to uparm with thd support of the US industrial military complex. Bully’s will only truly learn when they get defeated. For the US, UK, Europe and the Free(r) World upholding democracy, international law and shared values there’s no more time to be weak. We’d better look at… Read more »

Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago
Reply to  Quentin D63

I wholeheartedly agree with your commentary. Vigilance and preparedness are the best deterrents.

Steve
Steve
1 month ago
Reply to  Quentin D63

I do wonder how much of the talk about invasion is being secretly fueled by the US to encourage arms sales to the neighboring countries. It does feel like the US arms companies are making a lot of money out of the region currently.

Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago

excuse my poor grammar/punctuation – I must be in the market for new specs along with a pressing need for new knees, hip replacement , etc. as I age!

Dan
Dan
1 month ago

Gee, I hope our pair of River B2 vessels will be ready!

Gavin Gordon
Gavin Gordon
1 month ago
Reply to  Dan

Reckon they’re as likely to be involved in the heads up on such a move as any asset around the SCS, though.

Tommo
Tommo
1 month ago
Reply to  Dan

So long as the Beer fridges remain fully topped up no problem England expects everyman too sign the Beer Chit

Levi Goldsteinberg
Levi Goldsteinberg
1 month ago

China is a ticking time bomb of bad debt and irreparable demographic trends, it would sense for them to make a move while they can

Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago

Your Chinese economic summary is an astute observation. I can but hope they think through the consequences of any action first.

David61
David61
1 month ago

what a load of rubbish the ‘big man’ and his commie paymasters are destroying the US. but hunters artworks are doing ok. except for the 10% mafia stile tax he has to kick up to the ‘big man’ Trump had the least disparity between blue-collar & white-collar in history. Biden only wants conservative people’s guns while 20 people are murdered on average each weekend just in Chicago by illegal guns. but what would you expect from a ‘legitimate’ president who won one out of 19 bell-weather counties? also, i believe semi-automatic rifles are not assault rifles

Roy
Roy
1 month ago

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be the 21st century equivalent of the invasion of Poland. Were it to succeed, China would sit not astride, but on top of, Japan’s sea lines of communication. The strategic and economic impact of that would be earth shattering. Were it to succeed every state, that is currently politically and diplomatically “fence sitting”, would be at risk of accommodating itself to an emerging Chinese hegemony. Taiwan is the West’s (and particulary America’s) 21st century “Polish moment”. Collectively we cannot allow this strategically important democracy to be crushed.

RobW
RobW
1 month ago

they will only invade if they are absolutely certain of victory, their whole political system is in real danger of collapse in the event of a failed invasion. Mind you when you see their military vs Taiwan’s it is hard to see anything other than an easy win. Geography will ultimately prevent the US from making a telling contribution. I just hope it is seen to be too economically risky, which is Taiwan’s best defence at the end of the day.

Frank62
Frank62
1 month ago
Reply to  RobW

Any win would be anything but easy. I wonder how readily Chinese mums & Dads would put up with the CCP throwing away their children in the massive casualties trying to take Taiwan democracy & freedom?

RobW
RobW
1 month ago
Reply to  Frank62

I was thinking about it the other way. China could pound Taiwan before setting a single foot on its soil. How long will they hold out in the knowledge that defeat is (probably) inevitable?

It would take a massive international intervention to prevent it, whether militarily or economically. Can you see that happening when most of that world doesn’t recognise Taiwan as a nation?

Paul T
Paul T
1 month ago
Reply to  RobW

If China was cute why wouldn’t they just declare an Exclusion Zone around Taiwan and set up a Blockade, it might achieve the same results with much less Bloodshed.

Steve
Steve
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul T

That wouldn’t work, as it would allow the allies to mobilise, and break the blockade, without going into full out war with China. The only way China wins is to make it quick and to ensure the allies are nervous about fighting back.

Paul T
Paul T
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

It would put the Ball into the Allies Court so to speak – and History suggests it’s a Strategy that produces results, think of the the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Falklands War.

Steve
Steve
1 month ago
Reply to  Frank62

China has the significant advantage that it controls the internet and media. Think back to the empire days, no way the empire would have existed, with the mass media of today, the casualties on both sides would have shocked people, but these stories were never reported, and the casualties would be from poorer families rather than the ruling rich.

Tommo
Tommo
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

The Great War,saw a levelling from all Classes the loss of the golden generation my Grandfather owned a dairy in London He was killed near Arras in 1918 it didn’t matter what Class you were from during that conflict Flanders fields are proof of that

Steve
Steve
1 month ago
Reply to  Tommo

It took some significant losses before it reached home though, it wasn’t like today where one lost battle woudl be front page news or one lost troop.

Alan Reid
Alan Reid
1 month ago
Reply to  Tommo

Hi Steve, Tommo Interesting comments – but if it’s the British empire you’re referring too, then the British way of building its (mainly Eastern) empire was to use other people’s troops, Indian sepoys mainly – or its sea-power (against China). There were no mass British casualties – closest would be the 20, 000 dead of the Boer War, albeit mostly to disease. In WW1 we were certainly using our own men to a greater extent, for the only time – in a mass continental sized army. But there was no lost generation in WW1, certainly not in Britain – which… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by Alan Reid
Andy
Andy
29 days ago
Reply to  RobW

Preliminary mobilisation and distribution of communist assets could not be witheld effectively from allied intelligence. Troop movements, aircraft deploying within strike range and vessels assembling etc. . Thus a surprise pre-emptive strike could not be coupled up with immediate invasion. Annihilation of the Taiwanese Air force and its fixed missile installations would be required as a prerequisite for one of the largest amphibious landings fielded since D-day. (Battle of Britain style) In order to achieve air supremacy the chinese airforce will suffer extreme casualties. To achieve this Aircraft would need to be pulled from other strategically important areas on the… Read more »

Andrew D
Andrew D
1 month ago

Do get the feeling China are more up for this now ,since MR Trump as left the white house .🤔

Quentin D63
Quentin D63
1 month ago
Reply to  Andrew D

Maybe the CCCP now has a self deluded and very puffed up sense of confidence. They don’t feel the need to try delegation, negotiation, consideration just intimidation, over exaggeration and posturing. They might get a reality check with this.

Daddy Mack
Daddy Mack
1 month ago

For all the chest beating in the West I actually think China invading Taiwan is highly likely before 2025. You only have to look at the political ineptitude of the West in Afgan, Iraq and it’s utter impotence in the face of the Russian annexation of Crimea. In reality China could reasonably expect to establish a toehold on Taiwan within 48 hrs, far before any reinforcement arrives from anyone. The question therefore is how the US responds; on the eve of war will Americans be willing to fight for an island thousands of miles away from the continental US yet… Read more »

Steve
Steve
1 month ago

If happen s then e Us will get involved probably with arms then force then we could also be in it as long with Japan Australia and other countries but think of the fall out in the market s that would happen to china and then the sanctionens that the world apply Taiwan has a well trained arm forces and would not cave in like the afghan army

Ron Stateside
Ron Stateside
1 month ago

I’ll just add that the Biden and the United States are about to approve a $3 trillion total spending package on infrastructure and the environment and most all of it will be paid for. This is in a country where the top marginal tax rate is about half the top rate in France. The U.S. is far from bankrupt and if we ever decided to tax wealth at a fairer rate the resources that the U.S. tax base provides would be even more vast.

Levi Goldsteinberg
Levi Goldsteinberg
1 month ago
Reply to  Ron Stateside

Mate no one thinks the US is bankrupt or weak except some anonymous weirdos in online comment sections. Chill

Frank62
Frank62
1 month ago

Andrew Thorne did say that earlier in the discusssion, hence people debunking it.

Graham Moore
Graham Moore
1 month ago

It was reported little over 2 years ago that Beijing was not capable of launching a successful amphibious assault across the Straits of Taiwan – https://news.usni.org/2019/05/03/report-china-cant-execute-major-amphibious-operations-direct-assault-on-taiwan

Has that all changed?

Ken
Ken
1 month ago

Taiwan is responsible for 63% of global semiconductor market share. Would the world be able to function if that supply disappeared? Of course, China produces 16% of world production and consumes 50% of world semiconductor production. Leveling and capturing Taiwan would affect the entire world.

fearlesstunafish
fearlesstunafish
1 month ago
Reply to  Ken

does make me reconsider the urgency to try and upgrade my gfx card, cause the shortage caused by covid is nothing compared to what will happen if it all kicks off there!

Frank62
Frank62
1 month ago

I hope we’ll make it quite clear that any attempt to invade Taiwan will be a fatal mistake for the CCP. Taiwan has never been CCP territory.

Nigel Collins
Nigel Collins
1 month ago

Worth reading if you have the time including, DoD Assessment of War Between Taiwan and China in 2020 – III

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/210607_Cordesman_Chinese_Strategy.pdf?fG7hUZdWUVJgaJzyC4E9Qj1m3w13SfjQ

Martin
Martin
1 month ago

Well Xi may be an over entitled ***** he is not daft. Invading Taiwan at the very best leaves tens of thousands of dead PLA soldiers, hundreds of thousands of dead civilians. Large amounts of the PLAN being sunk and at the very least crippling international sanctions. That’s the absolute best case scenario for China in a Taiwan invasion and its much more likely that they will end up loosing or even in a nuclear exchange with the US. I just don’t see it happening. I’m sure Xi would very quickly be booted and possibly executed. Why risk it for… Read more »

Michael
Michael
1 month ago

Expect China will use the russian MO of provocation to induce a response, which they would use as a reason to attack.

Martin
Martin
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael

Taiwan is very different to Ukraine, China has no forces there, little local support and they would have to cross a sea filled with US and Japanese submarines with enough forces to subjugate a well armed island of 23 million people. Hybrid warfare won’t cut it.

Michael
Michael
1 month ago
Reply to  Martin

They used aircraft to provoke a response from Georgia.

Gunbuster
Gunbuster
1 month ago

China would become an economic basket case in short order.
Any investments in the west frozen or confiscated and any owned businesses nationalised /taken over.
Globally China flagged ships boarded and impounded.
Crippling sanctions against everything that they manufacture.
And that’s before their naval forces are sunk when ever seen.

Armchair Admiral
Armchair Admiral
1 month ago
Reply to  Gunbuster

Yes, this would be the reality. Suicidal making war when your finances are in dire strait.
Almost no need to even consider the likely military successes.
AA

Martin
Martin
1 month ago
Reply to  Gunbuster

China could not even boycott Australia coal. Cut of Saudi oil and food imports and you could win a war without firing a shot.

Mike
Mike
1 month ago

I don’t think that we can have a significant impact either way, it is literally on the other side of the world. A very long, and vulnerable line of supply for any forces we may send there.

Levi Goldsteinberg
Levi Goldsteinberg
1 month ago
Reply to  Mike

I’m not so sure. A CSG dispatched to China (if the war lasted long enough for it to arrive) is more than enough to provide area denial for Chinese ships and planes, restricting their ability to operate. Additionally, I would imagine that a couple LPDs full of Royal Marines would be a headache for the Chinese outer islands in the SCS

Deep32
Deep32
1 month ago

Obviously the PRC don’t have any capability in doing the same to a CSG coming into its waters, or the ability to stop any amphibious forces either!!!! Not entirely sure what all their land based cruise missiles or aircraft are for then……

Levi Goldsteinberg
Levi Goldsteinberg
1 month ago
Reply to  Deep32

I don’t know why you’ve assumed that me saying a QE CSG wouldn’t be useless in a Taiwan conflict is tantamount to me saying the Chinese are a defenceless cakewalk

Deep32
Deep32
1 month ago

Perhaps it’s the way I read it and my interpretation of what you posted, in which case my error.
If this did occur, can’t really see there being any winners, just lots of casualties.

Levi Goldsteinberg
Levi Goldsteinberg
1 month ago
Reply to  Deep32

Understandable, no harm done.

Agree with your last point – it would be a catastrophe all round

Mike
Mike
1 month ago

China has literally hundreds of thousands of troops, and a huge navy. I do not think they are concerned about a few LPDs with RM on board. The risk of sending one half of our entire CSG force down there, and operating at such reach is really high, and for what? Are we prepared to lose blood and treasure over Taiwan? Perhaps, but I am not convinced we could do much more than posture, and I do not think Taiwan is significant enough in our national interest to act.

Levi Goldsteinberg
Levi Goldsteinberg
1 month ago
Reply to  Mike

That is why I said the outer islands. I am not proposing that the RM would land on Hainan. Rather, they could be used to cut off and eliminate fortifications like the Paracel islands.

I could not imagine a role where the UK goes full hog against China over Taiwan, but I could imagine a scenario where we play an auxiliary role supporting the USA’s flanks while they do the heavy lifting.

I can’t see a scenario where the UK denies assistance to the USA and still expects to be taken seriously as an ally

Martin
Martin
1 month ago

I can’t imagine us going that far as no one in the South China Sea would allow us basing. More likely to have a fleet around Diego Garcia and Bahrain blockading the malacca straits from a distance and intercepting any oil shipments heading for Pakistan pipelines with maybe a second distant blockade around the Falkland Islands cutting off shipments of oil, iron ore and food trying to go round the bottom of South America.

Martin
Martin
1 month ago
Reply to  Mike

No doubt our CSG and navy would be busy blockading the gulf and Indian Ocean along with European allies freeing up the US and others to the pacific. While the RM and Army Would be busy mopping up any Chinese bases in Africa or the Middle East. That’s how we fought the last four world wars not steaming in to enemy controlled territory on day one.

Meirion x
Meirion x
1 month ago
Reply to  Mike

You wrong! It is, with Taiwan producing 50% of the world’s microprocessors especially the ones in your phone!

John Hartley
John Hartley
1 month ago

Well there is a lot of rumour & not much hard fact coming out of China. It is said that China is facing a hidden civil war in the communist party. Xi is one side. He likes confrontation with the West & his faction would invade Taiwan. Xi faces re-election next year. Only Mao had 3 terms or more. The other faction wants to stop Xi getting a third term. They are not cuddly, but see no point confronting the West. Then there is a lot of debt in China. A recent survey found a fifth of firms could not… Read more »

David Steeper
1 month ago
Reply to  John Hartley

Xi will be re-elected or there’ll be a bloodbath at the top of the CCP. It’ll be Xi or a bullet in the back of the head.

John Hartley
John Hartley
30 days ago
Reply to  David Steeper

Why then is Xi too scared to leave China to attend international meetings?

Lordtemplar
Lordtemplar
1 month ago

Bold prediction. See you in 2025.

Sean
Sean
1 month ago

Despite the vast size of the PLA and growing navy, China simply won’t have the vessels required to transport an invasion force anytime within the next 5 years. Even then, it will be akin to a rerun of D Day in size and will be signalled well in advance by the PLA requisitioning civilian vessels. Add to this that the only time the Taiwan Strait is calm enough for such an invasion is April and October, it’s going to be pretty obvious what the Chinese are planning. The Chinese would need to have a major fifth column in Taiwan in… Read more »

Lordtemplar
Lordtemplar
1 month ago
Reply to  Sean

FYI China already does since they have a law that requires civilian ships (ferries etc.) to help with amphibious landings in case of need. In fact they have done exercises to fine tune ops between civilian and military. In all China is capable of deploying 1.5 million tons of vehicles, etc…

George
George
1 month ago

Hi folks hope all is well. Interesting article. What role would the UK have and would we be prepared to support the US and Australia if the request was made? One thing China has and that is large numbers of personnel to deploy no matter the huge cost to life. Realistically I think the west will not get involved, unless we are directly affected. The EU will most certainly stand back if matters escalate, and would be happy for UK/US Australia and Japan to make the call. I hope I’m wrong, just a feeling happy to be convinced by you… Read more »

Levi Goldsteinberg
Levi Goldsteinberg
1 month ago
Reply to  George

I do not think it is an option for the UK to stand aside and still expect to be taken seriously in the Indo-Pacific. I’d imagine HMG would take as big a role as they can with as little risk as possible, such as patrolling the seas with a CSG and restricting the ability of the PLAAF and PLAN to manoeuvre freely

George
George
1 month ago

Hi Levi,
Yes see your point, however, in the event of our military being put at risk, or even worse. The public at home would not support any government for a matter so far away from home. Just consider recent conflicts we have being involved.
Cheers
George

Martin
Martin
1 month ago
Reply to  George

A fleet around Diego Garcia and Bahrain blockading the malacca straits from a distance and intercepting any oil shipments heading for Pakistan pipelines with maybe a second distant blockade around the Falkland Islands cutting off shipments of oil, iron ore and food trying to go round the bottom of South America. In terms of direct action our SSN’s may also transit the North Pole and conduct direct operations along the Chinese coast assuming that Taiwan can hold out for at-least a few weeks and RN and RAF assets would also be of vital importance in the North Atlantic tracking down… Read more »

David Steeper
1 month ago
Reply to  George

With you 100%. To those up for a war with China i’d ask. Remind me again what we gained from being the US’s bestest friend in Iraq and Afghanistan ? When was the last time we had a US president who didn’t regard us with contempt for us and our ‘special relationship’ At least on the surface the PM seems to understand. We’ll see how much.

Last edited 1 month ago by David Steeper
John Hartley
John Hartley
30 days ago
Reply to  George

One local CCP boss was found to have two tons of cash from bribes, hidden in his many homes. A Western online news channel was shut down in China, when it revealed Xi’s relatives have come into over $200m in assets. I suspect that if Taiwan was invaded, the West should look at (& confiscate) all that corrupt CCP party boss cash hidden in tax havens.

Steven Alfred Rake
Steven Alfred Rake
1 month ago

Up until President Xi took control of the Chinese Communist party Taiwan were considering entering into negotiations with China in reunification talks. But as Mr Xi is seen as a hard liner in Taiwan they pulled back from any possible talks. Mr Xi has since gone on to increase the Chinese military expenditure by 600%. China also holds most of the UK’s and USA’s debit with the West owing China Trillions of $ and would be doing us a favour if they did invade Taiwan as we would use this as an excuse to write off the debit. That said… Read more »

Alan Reid
Alan Reid
1 month ago

“China will invade Taiwan in next few years say analysts” .….
Errrhmmm ……….. No, they won’t – don’t be daft.
But good click-bait, guys. 😉

Klonkie
Klonkie
1 month ago
Reply to  Alan Reid

Probably the best comment on this thread!

rob
rob
1 month ago

We will likely need to reintroduce conscription and real battle training – as most Western armies have been decimated by budget cuts and woke ideology. You can’t fight a country like China with low numbers and low war fighting capability coupled with self loathing and hatred for your OWN country. If this happens, this will be a massive shakeup of our societies. Massive. So severe they may not survive after a war with China.

Chuck
Chuck
1 month ago

I think that it would be a huge gamble, as they could lose a lot of what they have built up over the last 25 years. I see no real reason to bother with armed invasion. Whichever way it goes, it will be costly for all involved and could put back any lasting treaties for decades. I’m pretty sure that it will cause anger and unrest among the people, when they start losing family members. Really, this sort of aggression just take a small island would be very costly, though they do seem set on fencing off the whole area… Read more »

Jonathan
Jonathan
1 month ago

Why would China change its present strategy. It’s Mercantile strategy is managing the west very well indeed. It’s got a strategy to gain influence in new markets as well as opening up access to new resources. Its population is well controlled and it has a good balance of external and internal. boggy men, there is economic growth. I can only see China acting in overtly aggressive causing a war way if: 1) it starts to lose control of its population 2) it cannot access critical resource 3) it losses its markets and ecconomic growth stalls china is not a tin… Read more »

Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

Probably the most sensible post here weighing up the realities.

Quentin D63
Quentin D63
1 month ago

Yes, a good commentary Jonathan.

Nigel Collins
Nigel Collins
1 month ago

Another interesting development!

Chinese, Russian navies conclude first joint patrols in Western Pacific27 OCTOBER 2021

The Chinese and Russian navies have concluded their first-ever joint patrols in international waters east of Japan in the Western Pacific: a further indication of the growing defence co-operation between the two countries that has been raising concerns among the United States and its allies.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defence/latest/chinese-russian-navies-conclude-first-joint-patrols-in-western-pacific

Nigel Collins
Nigel Collins
1 month ago
Reply to  Nigel Collins

Also.

JSM enters series production27 OCTOBER 2021

 Joint Strike Missile (JSM) being released from the F-35A AF-01 instrumented test platform over Edwards Air Force Base, California. Series production of JSM for the Royal Norwegian Air Force commenced on 21 October, with the signing of an approximately USD473.3 million contract between the Norwegian Defence Materiel Agency and Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace. (Norwegian Defence Materiel Agency)

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defence/latest/jsm-enters-series-production

Tommo
Tommo
1 month ago

There are in economics 2 types of Inflation there is Cost push Inflation ,and Demand pull Inflation if that’s any help

Nate Dogg
Nate Dogg
1 month ago

I do believe this will happen but not how people expect it. Most likely the PLA already have sleeper units and individuals living covertly in Taiwan. They will group when the command is given and maybe take on the Taiwanese from being their front line. It will be something unconventional.

Last edited 1 month ago by Nate Dogg
STEVE
STEVE
30 days ago

This move would not look good on the international front the Taiwanese have a well trained armed forces which would cause the chinese a major headache , Taiwan would get the backing that would come the US JAPAN and other countries including us as well i expect their would major deaths and injuries on both sides and this would not look good to the people of china when body bags started returning which could cause their government trouble in the long run no i think they will play the long game we will we won,t pressure

Ron
Ron
29 days ago

Would China invade Taiwan, possibly but it would mean that China becomes isolated in the world ecconomy. Does the People’s Repulic of China have a territorial claim to the Republic of China, NO. If anything the ROC has a territorial and historic claim to the PRC. Afterall mainland China is lands taken by force by communisim from the ROC. So what is the PRC thinking, I suspect paranoia, by taking Taiwan they push the EEZ out a further 200 nmi. The trade routes or for that matter freedom of navigation for Western warships is pushed out beyond the second Island… Read more »

Combat_wombat
Combat_wombat
11 days ago

China could in all honestly invade and probably take Taiwan, however would the CCP survive the fallout, it would be an incredibly phyric victory, the modern Chinese populace have not seen a modern war, they belive in the superiority of the party but if that party brings them bodybags in the tens of thousands and still hold unshakeable belief in itself? I’m not so sure, yes they could take taiwan but could they remain in Control after?