Defence Review 2024 – There will be cuts, but what’s going?

In 2021, my first-ever article for the UK Defence Journal detailed that the government of the time’s ambition for a “Global Britain” needed the appropriate defence and diplomatic effort behind it to be achievable.

In 2023, I followed this up with an article examining how far the concept had come (the original government paper was created in 2018).

It would be fair to say that a lot has changed in the last year. The UK military is struggling in a major way due to more than a decade of failings in government, the civil service, and the services’ own leaders.

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The war in Ukraine has intensified, and conflict in the Middle East is underway yet again following the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel on 7th October 2023 (and the subsequent declaration of war by Hezbollah in Lebanon against Israel the following day). The US is gearing up for another presidential election. China continues to grow its military strength while firmly holding Taiwan in its sights, and the UK has had a general election that saw a major power shift.

The Royal Navy and Royal Fleet Auxiliary are struggling. At the time of writing, none of the UK’s Astute-class hunter-killer submarines is deployed. Four of our six destroyers and four of the remaining nine frigates are temporarily out of action, as are both amphibious assault ships of the Albion-class.

The RFA is seeing more and more of its ships laid up due to a lack of funds, and those few ships that can sail are now lacking crew as the RFA demands better pay from the new government (having watched the NHS and train drivers get above-inflation pay rises in recent months, despite the new Chancellor stating there is a £20bn black hole in the UK’s finances).

The Army is not much better off. Now at its smallest size since the 1800s with just 73,000 full time personnel, tough choices have to be made about equipping troops and deployments overseas.

The Challenger 2 main battle tank will be upgraded to Challenger 3 variant, however there will only be 148 of them, compared with more than 440 of the Challenger 2 being produced. New equipment is limited unless you’re in the Army Air Corps, where the AH-64E “Apache Guardian III” has now entered service, replacing the WAH-64D models that have served so well. Ajax and Boxer will slowly start appearing in the coming years, with the full 1,100+ vehicles of the types due to be in service by 2032 (under current plans).

The RAF will no doubt be watching the SDR with concern. The MoD remains committed to the initial 48 F-35Bs, with a second batch of jets being discussed since 2022 for delivery by 2033. C-130 is now gone completely, and there is no firm commitment to buying more A400M Atlas transports yet.

The E-7A Wedgetails (all 3 of them) are still up to 2 years away, and the Typhoon fleet is slowly shrinking as older airframes are used for parts to keep newer jets flying. Project Tempest’s (now known as GCAP) future appears uncertain, too, although it is still hoped a prototype will fly in 2027, meaning the further order of F-35B may not actually take place or will only occur as a stop-gap measure.

In any case, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has made clear that the government will be making cuts to try and fix the “£20bn black hole” that her team found when they took over the department (whether you believe that claim or not). One would hope that in a time of war in Europe, the MoD would be one of the few departments to survive such cuts, but history has taught me that is unlikely to be the case.

So, what are we likely to lose?

At the current time, the navy’s Type 26 and Type 31 frigate programmes are under construction, and given the Type 26 was already cut from 13 ships to 8, I doubt we’ll see further cuts there.

The Type 31 is also hopefully safe, although the follow-up Type 32 programme could now be further at risk or delayed well into the future as it’s unlikely to be considered a priority by the new government. Likewise, the proposed Type 45 replacement (Type 83 destroyers) are nothing more than an idea on a drawing board in reality, meaning they could also face the axe.

Programmes to replace various auxiliaries and the fleet’s amphibious assault ships are also in question, especially since it appears we can’t even afford to keep the ships we have in service operational, let alone build and maintain a new fleet.

The Army is already alarmingly small in number of personnel. It’s therefore unlikely (but not impossible) that it will be reduced further in size, however, it may have to forfeit equipment or see units reorganised and deployments reduced further, something that will not bode well for NATO (who are keenly watching the upcoming US elections to see if Donald Trump manages to be re-elected (a man who has often been vocally anti-NATO)). The UK is reportedly trying to re-introduce the industrial capacity to build its large-calibre guns. It is also exploring the use of UAVs, following lessons being learnt from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The RAF may have to bite the bullet hardest. There has been a lot of talk recently about the possibility of scrapping the Red Arrows aerobatic display team and selling off even more bases. We’re unlikely to see any further orders for Typhoon (unlike in Europe). As I’ve already mentioned, the future of the F-35B fleet remains in question (with some suggestions of an F-35A purchase, a rather odd concept given current circumstances).

Tempest/GCAP may face further delays, with anticipated entry to service currently set for 2035. However, this relies as much on the UK’s internal politics as it is on the two significant collaborators, Japan and Italy. The New Medium Helicopter (NMH) programme could also face the axe, with the competition having gone from 3+ competitors (Airbus, Sikorsky and Leonardo) down to only 1 submitting an entry, and the proposed order dropping from 44 airframes down to as few as 20-25 at the time of writing.

Further, plans to replace C-130s with a possible follow-up order of more A400Ms appear to be nothing more than a dream now, meaning the existing airlift fleet will have to soldier on with its current capacity for the foreseeable future.

Sadly, the lack of concern from most politicians around defence seems limited to Western Europe. Other nations are rapidly trying to expand their military spending in light of growing threats worldwide. Poland, South Korea, Japan and others are increasing defence spending, placing large orders for new equipment, and in many cases, ramping up domestic defence production capabilities, which is something the UK should also be doing, in my opinion.

We may not be able to achieve the pivot to Asia-Pacific. If the cuts are severe, there’s always the risk of going back to a time of “no forces east of Suez”, a historic defence decision that proved catastrophic and ultimately unsustainable. The UK needs a strong military not just to meet our obligations to allies but to defend our interests – something that continues to be of great importance given recent events in the Gulf of Oman with Houthi attacks on international shipping.

Ultimately, we don’t know what the SDR will say, but given the current government’s views on the economy and recent history, the news is unlikely to be suitable for the MoD. “Global Britain” may find itself resigned to the distant future, and we can only hope the butcher’s bill will not leave the nation virtually defenceless.