Election Bombshell – Farage’s controversial comments on Ukraine threaten Reform Party momentum.
The decision of Nigel Farage to stand as a candidate for, and become leader of, the Reform Party was was one of the more exciting moments of an otherwise rather dull and stodgy General Election campaign so far.
Farage speaks for many in the silent majority, and Reform’s election manifesto made many pledges that the other mainstream parties were too scared to make, fearing a woke backlash. As I wrote previously, the defence aspects of their manifesto were in my opinion much better than the next government’s.
The surge in Reform Party support over the past few weeks has certainly put the frighteners on Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives, to the extent that a considerable part of their efforts has been refocused to discredit Farage and company.
This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines.
In this they were failing to make much impact, but just as we thought that Farage might be on an unstoppable roll he shot himself in the foot. He is usually adept at reading the public mood and giving the right of centre and floating voter part of the electorate what they want to hear, but it appears that he has ventured too far off-piste and put the brakes on his and his party’s rise to prominence.
Chief amongst these was his contention that NATO/the EU “provoked” Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. I have heard this line before from various right-wing conspiracy theorists and indeed have debated it with some of them, but it’s clearly a ludicrous idea.
NATO is above all else a defensive political and military alliance and has no fundamental strategy of self-aggrandisement or expansion. Contrary to what Farage implies, states seek to join the Alliance to ensure their own safety and security, primarily from Putin’s expansionist Russia.
The most important tenet of NATO is contained in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which in layman’s terms translates as “an attack against one will be regarded as an attack against all”. This ties the USA, and to a lesser extent Canada, to the defence of its European members.
It was precisely because Ukraine is not a member of NATO that allowed Putin to attack Kyiv without fear of direct confrontation with the western alliance. Of course Ukraine would probably hope to join both NATO and the EU in due course, but is the right of that internationally recognised and sovereign European state to do so.
There was no excuse for Russia’s invasion, nor for it to fear that NATO is seeking to squeeze its territory. In any case, Russia’s borders with NATO countries comprise only 11% of its total; personally I’d be much more concerned about its 4,300 kilometre border with China, although the latter is a so-called “friendly” state to Russia – so far anyway.
So, rather than NATO “provoking” Putin’s attack, it has prevented him attacking elsewhere, most notably the Baltic states where his victory would have been surely much more certain. And now that both Finland and Sweden have joined the Alliance his strategy, if indeed he had one in the first place, has blown up in his face.
By taking the line that he has, Farage has merely reinforced the public perception of him as a Putin “fanboy,” and that does not sit well with the majority of the British public.
Buoyed up with Reform’s surge in popularity and his own abundant self-confidence he seems to have overstepped the mark. His party’s poll ratings apparently have now stalled, which I think is directly related to his comments on Ukraine and Putin.
Whether he will be able to restore Reform’s upward trajectory in time for July 4th is a moot point.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
Except for the minor issue of them going up in the polls again… 🙄
Unfortuneately that doesn’t mean he is right it just means people are stupid.
You seem to have a problem with democracy and the democratic process – perhaps you should move to somewhere like North Korea and try and excercise your democratic rights there 🤔.
No Paul it means the exact opposite. People have the democratic right to vote anyway they want. It doesn’t however mean that they are not being stupid. In the 1920s – 1930s people democratically voted for Hitler. With hindsight, obviously, I think we can safely say those people were stupid and should perhaps have made another choice. How many lives would that have saved.
So now you are comparing the Reform Party with Hitler’s National Socialist Party – thats got to be one of the stupidest comments i have ever heard.
The connection is that in Hitler’s case he was extremely clever in motivating people to support him. There was always someone else to blame. He thought much more highly of himself than ever could be justified. If you asked him what his solution was to a problem you would never get a straight answer. It is similar with Farage for example he might tell you the problem is immigration but what exactly is the solution and what makes him so confident it will work. On the subject of Ukraine he understands that people want the problem to just disappear so… Read more »
No he isn’t, he is connecting the possibility of democratically voting for bad things which they believe to be good.
It isn’t unusual. I was called a “fascist” to my face for campaigning for Nigel in Thanet when he was UKIP, and ultimately for Brexit, in 2015. The person who called me that of course knew sod all about me, other than I was one of many who believed that the UK leaving the EU, the EU that it is becoming, rather than “just” a trading block of like minded nations, was a good idea. If anything, it is the hard left who are the real fascists today with their intolerance of opinions that differ from their own. Comparisons like… Read more »
Exactly so. It has never been easier to become a Nazí. I have not heard Mr Farage say anything I haven’t heard from the mouths of many ordinary people over many years. That is why he has bought a dimension into our politics that has been absent – denied – for such a long time. If you doubt his personal decency try to find his account of pulling a drowning man from the Channel when a small boat sank.
Ahh, but Barry, that would not suit the “agenda” would it, of maximum publicity for every fault and bad egg found in Reforms campaign to try to tarnish the entire organisation in the eyes of the gullible electorate. I also met war veterans. But apparently we are all BNP, Nazis, racists, and, from the mouth of that idiot David Cameron “closet loonies and fruitcakes” There are good and bad in all walks of life and all parties, they won’t get quite the same coverage, despite It being obvious Reform will never form a government. FPTP ensures that, by design, for… Read more »
What message did Cameron pulling the troops out of Germany send ? His austerity saving an estimated 250 million a year from the defense budget !
You need to get out more …
You need to respect people’s right to vote for whoever they choose, or ideally stfu – just saying 👉
Farage has ruined this country, he should be strung up from a lamp post alongside Bluffer and Rees Mogg.
His attack line on NATO and Ukraine has to make you wonder how much Russian money he handled when he worked in the city, because the Russians certainly pumped a lot into the City during his time.
So someone who has never held the position of MP in this country has ruined it – call me educated 🤔.
Was ruined by the Neo-liberals Thatcher on, sold off assets, council houses, out sourced, privatised and created PFI’s that your grandchildren will still be paying off. This led to loading with debt and tax avoidance with transfer of wealth to rich!
Democracy has its flaws. If they bought in compulsory IQ tests, a whole lot of politicians would fail. Even more would fail a common sense test. Some countries have optional voting, on the argument that only those that are interested & engaged will bother to vote. Some countries have compulsory voting, forcing everyone to vote. One of the problems with the former, is that the far right & far left are more likely to engage. Most people fall somewhere nearer the middle & less likely to engage because they believe (rightly) that most people think like they do. Forcing people… Read more »
Yes. In a representative democracy it is no surprise that the potential representatives have flaws just as the majority of the electorate has flaws. People try to hold their representatives to higher standards than they can ever attempt to manage themselves. The consequence of this is that people have difficulty relating to their representatives. Many do not know the person they are electing they generally vote for a party with the aim of solving a problem or making life better for themselves or others without considering the possibility that the person in question hasn’t the foggiest idea how to do… Read more »
“would you want this person around your kids, would they likely make sensible decisions and keep the finances straight”
Setting a pretty high bar there, aren’t you?
😂😂😂 Yes. Perhaps I am. Although I think there are plenty of good people who would satisfy that criteria you would really need a number of politicians who need to think strategically, out of the box and with care and compassion etc. Part of the problem today is that candidates exclude themselves because they might have a couple of skeletons in their closet and they are not going to allow the possibility that the media might drag some 30 year old infidelity up when it is not relevant to your ability to do a job as MP. Indeed it might… Read more »
Yep but actually The National Socialist didn’t dominate, they essentaill consolidated power by privatising sectors of the economy, not because they were capatilist but to gain more control, for instance the utilities were privatised and the new owner was the National Socialist party!! They ensured some sectors went to others friendly to national socialist cause to further consolisate power and with the proceeds went on a socialist spending spree to create job and promise the electorate a National Socialist utopia but as always they ran out of money having duped the German people into supporting them, so its not so… Read more »
It was still a marked improvement over the degeneracy and chaos of Weimar. The harshness of the Versailles treaty had already sown the seeds for WW2. There was bound to be a backlash to that level of national humiliation. As with what happened to Russia in the 90s led us to the Putin/any strongman pipeline. The collective West seems to not know how to win magnanimously, and the US have been out of the nation building game since the 1950s.
so Hitler was an improvement is that what you are saying – and again with blaming the Treaty of Versailles yes it was harsh but donlt go baming that for the Nazi parties subsequent attrocities-Theres only one place that blame lies .
I suppose you have posters of Oswald Mosely on your wall as well – or maybe Stalin…either way your an appeaser or a fool.
This site is becoming more right wing by the day
Since English seems to be your second language, I will give you a pass and ignore your schizo rant and baseless accusations.
Exactly. Lack of forward thinking!
Trouble is he’s correct and more people believe him that any Westminster stooge.
He is not correct! It is people like you, that has not got a clue of history of ruZZia and NATO relations since the end of the Cold War. You find the problem is ruZZian imperial ambitions!
Whats the difference between Putin and Bush , both invaded countries with made up justification ?
One believes he has a right to keep it, the other claimed to be removing a despotic dictator.
America had zero intention of holding onto any of the countries they invaded.
But that doesn’t suit your narrative, I expect, and you’ll try to “what about” it.
Too scared to remove King Jong Un , but has no oil and nukes !
I’d encourage you to keep researching the subject
He is correct, but people are deliberately ignoring the nuance with which he delivered his remarks. Quoting Russia’s current small border with NATO is ridiculous, given the whole point of the argument Farage was making is that Russia is fearful of it becoming much larger because of Ukraine being put on a path to admittance into NATO. Of course Russia had no right to invade, but to claim zero provocation from the West is ridiculous. The west overplayed it’s diplomatic hand and weak leadership in most western states, especially the US, gave Russia the confidence it needed to make it’s… Read more »
Interesting view and adds to the view.
In Latvia 2013/2014, the amount of Russian provocation was astonishing – the Latvians didn’t and still do not, help themselves but, only being in NATO saved that Country, her people, culture and language.
Only one country really seemed to appease Russia at that time and it was Germany who was interested in the Russian oil wealth and mineral resources, and seemed prepared to hand Latvia over on a plate.
Interesting world.
Spot on, in my view ! On the latest polls, this, er, mis-step by Nigel doesn’t seem to have done him any harm. Of course, he might be even higher in the polls if he hadn’t said what he did. But there’s no way of knowing that,
👍
‘Trouble is he’s correct and more people believe him …’
As has transpired. He said nothing I haven’t heard coming from the mouths of leftist acquaintances when the war began.
This is the kind of thing we will see when a truth sayer expose the deep state, crony corporatist who instruct the vile self serving unelected civil service to undermine our Country and the will of most people. The Steve Bannon interview by GB News America explains much. Lotus Eaters podcast do also. Reform with SDP policies too, are the way forward.
What nonsence is this. More deep state conspiracy c**p. What drives the running of this country is the stupidity of the electorate. To be fair it probably applies to most countries. Oddly the current election will be decided by a bunch of people hiding behind their sofas going “All politicians are evil – so i’m going to punish the world by not voting for anyone”. I will have little sympathy for any of them when they start moaning about the next Government – which they probably will have elected by stupidity. Reform will not last long, the Lib Dems will… Read more »
“All politicians are evil – so i’m going to punish the world by not voting for anyone” What you’d rather endorse them with a vote even if you don’t believe they deserve it. If the turn out is low then any self repsecting politician who wins should be looking at themselves not celebrating a victory, knowing they do represent the people. I don’t buy this if you don’t vote you don’t get a say, even in parliamentry votes absentian is an option. Abstaining is absolutely an option when the political class is of the standard we have. The Tories won’t… Read more »
It’s a fact you haven’t had a say. Nobody knows you exist let alone what your preferences are – and you clearly like everyone to know your preferences on here. If you don’t vote you are effectively saying “Whatever you want to do gets my support”. There will likely always be a right of centre party. It doesn’t matter what it is called – people will want such a party. The Tories are already parked in that ground it would be a waste of effort to re-invent the wheel. Remember that Labour haven’t held power for quite a while. In… Read more »
Expat – ‘self respecting’? I’m not sure that should not read ‘self interested.’
The current Labour candidate for Furness is liar, Simon Fell doesn’t do much better with his promises, but, that is what we have to choose from.
I for one don’t think Sunak has any level of control what so ever. He wasn’t even voted in using the Tory party rules- it was a coup d’état by any other name- so it could be argued it is deep state as you don’t know who is controlling it- and why. That , and the utter shambolic/self destructive nature of the end of Johnsons reign followed by the debacle of Truss’ tenure is why they won’t get my vote. I’m not sure I can bring myself to vote labour but by not voting Tory (& I’m not) I’m hoping… Read more »
Grizzler you prove my point. The electorate are in control. Just chating to various people they are all going to do exactly what you are going to do – which is vote for nobody or spoil the vote. A whole mass of loyal conservate voters (until now) removing themselves from the system. Sunak will not last long win or lose. Maybe the Tory Party will die although I suspect it will re-invent itself – there seem to be a whole new generation waiting in the wings either way there is likely to be a centre right party going forward. Your… Read more »
If you don’t like any of the people on offer, did you consider putting yourself forward?
What Nonsense you speak!
“..self serving unelected civil service…”
The UK has a impartial Civil Service(non- political appointees) whom stay in office, after a change of government. In contrast the USA has a central government administration appointed by the President, usually filled with governing party associates. And a system of State government, which elect their administration party officials.
Yeah right and the BBC have no political bias either.
And what news source do you trust?
I bet its one of the few avid GB News watchers.
And people are wondering why the young are starting to question democracy when you have people that watch that drivel and believe it.
Hmm, Tories want axe civil service numbers Labour want to increase it. Tories want the civil service in the office 5 days a week Labour want them at home. It would be nieve to think they alll loyal to cause when policies will have such an impact on their working lives.
I really don’t know what is the purpose behind the surge in numbers in the DWP – PIP workforce, Universal Credit jobcentre EOs – ballooning numbers and yet, in some ways there is no new thinking.
I’m actually starting work week Monday and asked for a rail warrant – as it is allowed – I could have bought it for £33. No, I’ve seen your Appointment letter, please come in for an interview.
Next week, the ticket will be north of £130/140; ridiculous.
Still, I’ll be able to meet Daniele for a VERY lively debate over a cup of tea!
Given our politics seem to be the polar opposite, I’m not sure it is such a good idea mate!
I was thinking trains, etcs level 2 and GBRTT 🙂
Even in the US, it’s the career civil servant that runs the show. The deck chairs on the top level change each election, but do you really want amateurs running everything?
Get a grip, unelected civil service? That’s the beauty of it, impartial and not appointed. It’s incompetence that’s the issue with the state not that utter nonsense and strings of words you just joylessly tapped out.
Wow.
Yes NATO and EU expansion has pissed off Russia. Countries are entitled to change positions based on changes of circumstances. I’m damned sure that if the Baltic states and Ukraine had decided they wanted closer alignment to Russia militarily and economically Putin would have been quite happy. Putin is an ideologue, he believes that all the former soviet states ‘belong’ to Russia. He believes Ukraine has never existed as a state. This was always going to happen as long as Putin is in charge and it’s the reason why the Baltics have a genuine belief that if Ukraine falls that… Read more »
Spot on.
The Russia/Ukraine war is not any kind of issue to most people in the UK. Some people, yes, but most (or even many), no. Just no.
(Repetition of earlier comment which has vanished. Wonder why.)
Yeah, the one you left less than an hour ago and know we moderate maually? Good call with the “wonder why”.
Most people don’t even pretend to understand wars and their impact on British security. They expect the Government of the day to look after that and woe betide them if they don’t. If we ended up at war and/or everyone’s sons and daughters conscripted or killed people would indicate that is the role of Government (which is true) and the Government should have done everything to deter any enemies.
The price of fuel and food is no kind of issue to most people in the UK? Well I admit to not personally knowing most people in the UK, but that would surprise me.
Oh, here we go. Another media platform that is going to be constantly trashing Reform and/or Farage right up until the election, SMH.
Reform is pointless anyway. They have no hope of power – at any point.
How they laughed when Farage made his first speech about the UK leaving in the EU parliament?
Oh yes. 😀
Farage was good at raising a specific gripe. People generally did not understand what the EU was for and consequently voted in malcontents into the EU parliament. The UK was not the only country to do that. Farage shone a light on the Brexit issue however it was Boris with his Get Brexit Done message which made it mainstream and completely undermined the Brexit party which has now reinvented itself. People like Farage are not seen as serious parties or politicians. Single issue parties die as quickly as they rise. In reality politics evolves within the major parties and new… Read more »
Could Farage be missing his EU salary? So get one as an MP instead?
Him and Bluffer et al have done so much economic damage to this Country it beggars belief.
Nah Farage would be able to earn far more money outside politics than he ever earned (or could earn) inside. To be fair to him he beleives in much of the stuff he pushing. He says somethings, I suspect, to grab everyone’s attention. If you are talking about Brexit I think that is an action we all took. Being inside or outside had pros and cons and I for one was going to make the best of the pros and try and mitigate the cons whichever way the referendum went. For some companies being outside the EU is a struggle… Read more »
A lot of it is about his ego TBH
Ego is something found in every successful man or woman.
What worries me about Farage is that he seems to be trying to rip the entire system apart a little like DT in the US. He knows the UK system is vulnerable as millions of UK citizens seem tempted to vote for nobody. It is likely to shake things up a bit and I’m not sure people are going to like the results.
For context, this article was written by a former SNP Defence Spokesman who also stood as a Lib Dem candidate twice and failed to get elected on both occasions.
Thanks, I have no love for the SNP, but agree with him on most points, Farage has shot himself in the foot but I think most people who like him will easily forgive it or agree with him, but he may have turned away some floating voters who was flirting with voting for him.
Putins puppet has already destroyed British economy by boosting Brexit, and now he tries again.
Oh well done your the first to bring up Brexit🙄get over it! have you not noticed a pandemic that shut the country down for 2 yrs and looking across the ditch things are not going to well over there either are they?
It was the bad deal that Johnson et al got by sitting on their hands until the last minute that I object to more than Brexit itself.
No it was the MPs of ALL parties that fought it all the way and put as many hurdles in the way as possible because they didn’t agree that the plebs had the audacity to vote to leave!,
Excuses excuses.
“But Opposition parties”
“But COVID”
“But Ukraine War”
“But Yemen”
I wonder what the next one will be to try and dust away the Brexit problem. It’s always someone else’s fault.
Really? So all politicians went out of their way to make it work did they? I don’t think so!
Your blind delusion that minority parties are the problem is part of the reason we are in this mess.
But it’s never your fault is it, always someone else’s. It’s like a primary school playground.
You won, get over it.
WTF are you on about? If you noticed I said MPs of ALL parties didn’t want to do what was voted for! As for me getting over it you seem to be the one having a tantrum.
just take a look over and see what’s happening in your beloved EU not exactly going happily is it?
Excuses excuses.
You won, get over it.
How has Brexit destroyed the British economy? We have been doing better than all the other large European countries on most metrics, who remain in the EU, since Brexit. So how does your argument stack up? Would you expect that we should be doing even better still? What informs this British exceptionalism that you seem to believe in?
NF is surely correct insofar as the West ignoring Putin’s annexing Crimea encouraged him in future adventures.
Including Putin’s unprovoked war on Ukraine.
“Farage speaks for many in the silent majority”
What utter tosh, if that were the case Reform would be ahead of Labour.
Farage and Reform clearly, and obviously, speak for a small minority of the population of the UK.
Approximately 20% as things currently stand – not bad for a new party contesting it’s first General Election – if the 40% currently opting for Labour want to vote that way then fine, they’re perfectly entitled to stick with vague policy-free manifestos from dull duplicitous personality-free liars in hoc to militant trades union money and poisonous terrorist-supporting rabble – let’s see how that pans out in 5 years time.
You are aware of the arithmetic certainty that 20% is a small minority aren’t you?
You are aware that people vote on more than just this issue, aren’t you?
The Ukraine war is not going to be a deciding factor for most people, but dealing with its consequences may well be. Unfortunately Labour are shamelessly blaming Liz Truss for mortgage rates going up; when in reality they went up as a result of the BOE’s attempts to control inflation caused by primarily by the war in Ukraine and to a lesser extent Covid. But the electorate is fickle, so they believe it.
Total bull, everybody blamed Liz truss including her own chancellor quasi and the rest of the conservative party!!
There was a short-term spike in gilt rates caused by Liz Truss, but care to explain how she is responsible for interest rates rising in every western country? The obvious answer is that she isn’t, and that interest rate rises are mainly caused by something else, something that is common to all western countries.
You clearly want to be misled, or want others to be misled. There is no sound argument for what you are saying.
Ok, just how is any of this relevant to my objection to the phrase “Farage speaks for many in the silent majority”?
As he obviously speaks for a patently obvious minority, and whilst you are at it please explain why the Tories, including her own chancellor turned on, and removed Liz Truss?
Because she recklessly caused a short-term spike in gilt rates that damaged the Tories economic credibility. That’s not the same as causing the entirety of the cost of living / mortgage crisis.
Your argument was that Reform polling at 20% means that Farage couldn’t possibly be speaking for the silent majority on this issue. I stated that this is a foolish argument because people obviously vote on a multitude of issues. Again you use phrases like “patently obvious minority” with no evidence. It’s an unfortunate feature of modern political discourse that people employ to try discredit their opponents.
Liz Truss killed a years growth on my pension lol
As the war is a stalemate it will likely go on for many years and in the end a negotiated solution will be required . As Farage states this will result in a large part of a generation of young men on both sides being killed and a ruined country. After Iraq it sent the message that regime change and flimsy evidence was all that was required to start a war .
I have no objection to large numbers of young Russian men being killed; does the world a service.
Farage is an agent provocateur working to polarise the debate and cause division. The same playbook as Trump.
And unfortunately it seems the gullible in this country are as easily manipulated as the maga lot.
He too is a bullingdon boy.
The reaction to Mr Farage’s comment hasn’t dented his campaign nor I suspect will it. The swivel by the mainstream media at present has moved on to show Mr Farage as far right unapologetic racist. So it will go on until 4th July – and afterwards if Reform do well. I have heard entirely similar comments about the causes of the war in Ukraine from Labour supporters – correction – former Labour supporters who now say they can’t vote for Starmer because he is too right wing! I listened to the comment three times and I cannot find the endorsement… Read more »
Well said!