A report published by Policy Exchange earlier this year—backed by former Defence Secretaries Rt Hon Sir Michael Fallon KCB and Rt Hon Lord Robertson of Port Ellen KT—sets out how the deteriorating threat landscape and “persistent Irish security freeloading” require the UK to rediscover Northern Ireland’s strategic importance to its national security.
Russia once more poses a maritime threat to the Western Approaches to the British Isles, through and around which much transatlantic critical maritime infrastructure passes. the authors argue.
“The UK also faces a back-door threat from the growing Iranian, Russian and Chinese presence in the Republic of Ireland, a mounting challenge for a chronically deficient Irish security and intelligence apparatus. The Republic’s Defence Forces and security apparatus remain entirely inadequate, the result of a defence budget of less than 0.5% of GDP since 2000.
With polling indicating that Sinn Fein is a serious contender in the 2025 election, there seems little prospect of the Republic’s performance on security issues improving any time soon. The Party’s longstanding hostility to the UK, and opposition to firmer Irish commitment to Western security, mean that any Government it leads will be no friend to British interests. This report therefore calls for the UK Government to expand its naval and air presence in Northern Ireland for maritime patrol missions against Russian intrusion. It also urges the UK and its regional partners to unite and up the ante in pressing Dublin to do its fair share for collective security.”
Policy Exchange argues that the external threats facing the UK are so acute as to demand renewed focus on the strategic importance of Northern Ireland. Russia is testing the vulnerability of the undersea cables and pipelines situated around our western flank. Meanwhile, the expanding Russian, Chinese and Iranian presence in the Republic signals the intent to infiltrate and interfere in the transatlantic community.
These risks are compounded by the Republic’s reluctance to invest sufficiently in its military and security apparatus. Ongoing attempts to reform the Irish Defence Forces are crawling forward, which will leave the Republic incapable of policing its own waters – or keeping a watchful eye on potentially hostile elements embedded in Irish society – for years to come.
Policy Exchange’s report makes the case for reintegrating Northern Ireland as a vital component of British national security. It calls on the UK Government to restore the UK’s active naval and air presence on the western side of the Irish Sea, which has played a decisive role throughout history in fending off external threats.
Such radical steps would, they claim, demonstrate that the UK can no longer tolerate the unsatisfactory state of British-Irish security relations and should be backed up with forceful diplomatic pressure to encourage the Republic to do more for our collective security.
In a foreword in support of the report, Rt Hon Sir Michael Fallon KCB and Rt Hon Lord Robertson of Port Ellen KT write:
“As Defence Secretaries in different governments at different times, we know that little attention was paid to the security of the island of Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War. We therefore welcome this new report from Policy Exchange, which powerfully reasserts the strategic importance of Ireland, and especially Northern Ireland, to the UK’s national security … Russian intelligence ships and warships have been identified off the Irish coast and close to key transatlantic cables. The growing Russian, Iranian and Chinese presence in the Republic poses a backdoor threat to the United Kingdom itself.”
To bring Northern Ireland back into the UK’s national security arrangements, Policy Exchange’s report proposes the following recommendations:
- ENHANCE NAVAL AND AIR PRESENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND: The UK no longer has an adequate Royal Navy and RAF presence in Northern Ireland to police the Western Approaches, and out into the Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap. This leaves our critical maritime infrastructure wide open to Russian meddling. To restore our deterrence and defence, the Government must re-establish sufficient Northern Irish air and naval facilities to run regular maritime patrol missions around the northwestern flank.
- INTEGRATE NORTHERN IRISH BASES INTO THE NATIONAL DEFENCE COMMAND STRUCTURE: Scottish bases are over-stretched to protect the UK’s northern flank single-handedly. A restored strategic presence in Northern Ireland would alleviate this burden, whilst complicating Russian decision-making by offering two platforms for defensive deployment.
- APPLY GREATER PRESSURE ON THE REPUBLIC TO CONTRIBUTE TO COLLECTIVE SECURITY: For decades, the Republic has scarcely contributed to the collective security it enjoys with its partners. By moving unilaterally to defend its western flank, the UK will signal to the Republic that the status quo security arrangement is no longer acceptable. The Government should point to its Northern Irish naval and air expansion, and the mutual external threats both countries face, to urge the Republic to expedite its military and security reforms.
- ENCOURAGE ALLIES TO PRESS THE REPUBLIC INTO FASTER MILITARY AND SECURITY UPGRADES: The UK is not alone in being threatened by Irish intransigence over collective security, which compromises the security of all transatlantic maritime infrastructure. As the UK and its allies continue to invest more time and money into protecting this infrastructure, frustration at Irish reluctance is mounting. The UK Government should coordinate a united front, amongst regional partners with joint strategic interests in transatlantic maritime security, to push the Republic to play its part.
- KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR IRISH ENTRY INTO COLLECTIVE SECURITY INITIATIVES IN THE LONG RUN: The Republic can no longer opt out of defending the world order from which it benefits. Indeed, it is already being probed as the potentially weak underbelly of the transatlantic community. The long-term goal must be for the Republic to integrate properly into the multilateral security initiatives which defend that community. When the Republic proves its newfound commitment to collective security, by developing a robust military and security apparatus, the UK Government should encourage it to participate further in multilateral initiatives, such as the Joint Expeditionary Force.
Policy Exchange author Marcus Solarz Hendriks comments :
“With Russia increasingly probing the vulnerability of transatlantic maritime infrastructure, the UK must take action to police its northwestern waters.
As the Republic remains an unable and unwilling partner in the face of this threat, the UK Government must take matters into its own hands by restoring its air and naval presence in Northern Ireland. The penetration of Irish society by Russia, China and Iran also raises grave concerns over a back-door threat to the UK.
The UK cannot do the job of the Irish state for it but – by fundamentally changing the nature of Northern Irish security arrangements – it will send a strong signal to the Republic that our patience for its evasive commitment to collective security has worn thin.”
Can’t be as much of a threat to UK security as Fallon was…
Awful DS. Absolute waste of space.
Was he the worst in modern times I’m going to have to grade them now..best to worst….best is easy..that’s Ben Wallace…worst is hard…shapps fallon or Williamson..each had their own individual rubbisheness.
I do smile at this “Backdoor threat”, hell, we can’t even keep our front door safe. 🚤
And the backdoor gap in UK security may well lose that door entirely if Northern Ireland leaves the UK in the future …
Very, very unlikely without another civil war. A war that will in itself highlight and fully exploit the irish republics lack of defence. Reunification, as they willingly become part of GB once again.
We are stronger when we all stand united on these islands.
Good Lord, lay of the alcohol…
Morning Mark. Calm down now squire. Hope you are well😉
Doing grand Geoff, hope it’s good down in South Africa.
Maybe not civil war, but the level of violence would be extreme and I’m not sure the republic has the security services to manage…personally I think the republic would be bonkers to take on the toxic quagmire which is the 6 counties…I honestly think any upsetting of the status quo would lead to a serious bloodletting…really best left alone for a few generations.
If it was ever put to a vote I think it would be a “head versus heart” position in the Republic and I can’t see any political party campaigning against it. As for leaving the situation for a few generations, that’s not going to fly with the Nationalists in NI, not if there’s ever evidence that they hold a sufficient majority to carry a vote.
Theres no question that there will be violence if that day ever comes, but then on the other hand, there will be violence if it comes and the U.K. refuses to allow a vote.
To be honest I’m sort of hoping that point does not come for a couple of generations ( around 40 years)…I think slow and steady is the only way that will not involve buckets of Blood. I suspect that at some point the UK is going to become a proper federal state…( the Scottish question is never going away and will only be managed properly if the UK becomes a federal state) at that point northern island will become a far more robust political entity and I think any change of sovereignty can only happen safely at the point Northern… Read more »
An Independent Ni isn’t a runner, there simply isn’t the economic capacity to sustain anything close to the standard of living that NI has currently. The cuts needed to fill the hole in the budget would be beyond brutal. As to hoping for multiple generations to “settle things”, that was basically the idea of the GFA, but the accelerating demographic changes along with the unsettling effects of Brexit might mean that it’s going to be sooner than that. And to be honest, in the age of social media, I’m not convinced even the U.K. would handle all the fallout of… Read more »
I reckon magic mushrooms.
I’m pleased you corrected that typo. Had you been drinking by any chance.
No, more a laptop on its last legs.
It comes to us all, components stop working and drop off.
I sympathise with your laptop. This getting old lark is not what I sign up for.
united? the Irican’teven agree with the day of the week. they’d end up fighting eachother.
They did alrite against the British army Andy total stalemate after 30 odd years.
I think what everyone fails to realise is that all these prior paramilitary groups have either gone or already transitioned, they are nothing other than criminal gangs flying flags of convenience, be they a tricolour or Union flag. They are more cross community than the politicians nowadays in their dealings.
If there was more money to be made in a UI you might be surprised how little resistance to change there was from those particular elements.
When I refer to a UI. I mean north and south back in the UK of GB where they belong. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility. Generally these things happen after a major geopolitical upheaval such as wars, civil wars, revolutions, pandemics or natural disasters etc. We are living in a very volatile time. Write nothing off as impossible.
Well you’re entitled to your opinion George I just think it’s highly unlikely.. The direction of travel seems much more geared to a UI, some big milestones hit in that direction in recent years e.g. Nationalist majority in the North, SF first minister, loss of Unionist majority in Stormont etc Admittedly it’s not so much a picture of Nationalism growing as Unionist shrinking, largely losing out to the center ground who are much more open to the idea of a UI. A new union with Ireland under the umbrella of Britain, especially given how well the Irish economy is performing… Read more »
George! Back in the UK “where they belong”? Please don’t take up a job in the Foreign Office or in politics. You definitely do not know how to read a room, and you would definitely re-ignite “difficulties” that do not now exist.
I’ll have you know John, that I graduated top of class with honours on my diplomacy course. At the Genghis Khan School of International Studies.
Is it simply the fact that it’s August and everyone traditionally is away that there’s so many Irish articles on the site at the moment? I mean this is basically a repeat article on what was put up when the report was out, the incident for the UNFIL forces is basically “fairly regular occurrence” (for example I don’t remember the site covering the actual death of an Irish solider by a Hezbollah connected group), the cover of the fairly routine Defence Review as well is unusual? I mean NI is still part of the U.K., if the U.K. government wants… Read more »
It makes a change from Glaswegian shipyards.
Surely a a flight of 4-5 typhoons can be spared from the fleet to have them stationed in N.I? To ease any security fears this could be a co developed squadron with the republic to help them build up a future fast fleet, this would help everyone going forward.
How exactly do you think that would ease security issues, hell it would likely just make it worse as the lunatics from both sides would want to have a go then.
History shows us that militaristic Autocracies do not respect either neutrality or a weak military.
You would think Ireland would gladly make use of the RN and RAF to help keep an eye on Irish borders, it would not cost them a penny.
It would be better to put all the bad history behind us and just cooperate on security matters.
There already is cooperation, and Ireland does make use of the RAF and RN (with plenty of complaints in the comments section here for example), but that has nothing to do with this rehash article or the report in the first place.
Yeah, there have been quite a few rehashed articles recently.
Like I said I’m presuming it’s a case of the Autumn slump, though I would have thought there would still be enough to fill the site? I don’t see anything in this that’s new from when it was first posted when the report was released?
Plus, recent polling doesn’t suggest that the Shinners will be leading the next Irish government. Quite the opposite, mainstream government parties did much better than expected in the most recent elections, the predicted gains for Sinn Fein didn’t happen and there’s little to suggest there’s going to be any change in their fortunes.
There is that, the GE is likely within the next 8-10 weeks, but locals tend not to be replicated in GEs, it will be a wait and see, I’m guessing a split three ways between FG, FF and SF so horse trading will be the name of the game.
It’s just that with the current (relatively high) satisfaction levels with the main government parties, I don’t see too much changing bar some unforseen political earthquake. Whilst SF may get the chance to make it into the next government as a junior coalition partner , it’s historically not a comfortable place for a party to be. Junior coalition parties get shafted every time, first by the senior parties, then by the electorate.
While everything will be in play post election, SF so far are showing no willingness to consider being a junior partner besides it would destroy their “USP” if they went in with FF, FG just won’t touch them at all no matter what. SF has a lot of issues trying to find enough votes in the Daíl to form a government post election at the moment.
One thing that’s changed is that one of the authors of the report, Lord Robertson, is now heading a UK Strategic Defence Review. So ideas expressed in the report could now become policy and plans.
Has the U.K. suddenly got more resources to start building up capacity in NI? Nor is it likely to be a priority for diplomatic efforts.
AS things are being rehashed I’ll post again that an IAC pilot told me at an airshow about how they ‘work very closely with the RAF’.
There’s a relationship of course, from medical transports to training, but not more than that.
“INTEGRATE NORTHERN IRISH BASES”
Bases? Base. Aldergrove, and……what bases?
Bishops Court was a radar and intell site, isn’t it a housing estate now?
The army garrisons at Lisburn and Palace Barracks are hardly strategic.
What other RAF and RN installations existed to reactivate?
Apart from that, what spare resources does the U.K. have to permanently deploy to NI? I mean how much would it cost for Aldergrove to support Typhoons? There isn’t even a RN basing facility available even if the RN had spare hulls. And ultimately would it really change much in terms of reaction times, not too mention the need for increasing security at any facilities.
I agree. This is all grandstanding with no substance. After 9/11, Culdrose, Yeovilton, and Boscombe were all mentioned in having QRA facilities put in place, to deploy dets of Typhoon if needed, to respond to threats from the west. And there is already St Mawgan in the SW. I know it happened at Boscombe but unsure of the other two. Aldergrove has no HAS complex, and AFAIK no SSA ( ammunition storage area ) so some money would need to be spent. And it is an international airport. Someone here the other day suggested RAF Valley instead, and I see… Read more »
Couldn’t we give them one of the old type 23 boats or two?
You mean the hulls that are so worn out they are beyond economical repair for the U.K.? How does that make sense?
Yeah fair comment, was just thinking of ways that could help but the 23’s would cost money.
Not just cost money, even at full strength the NS would be hard pushed to crew one operationally, not too mention the lack of all the specialists needed for a ship like the 23s.
The lack of the Irish Republics Defence capabilities, has nothing to do with any perceived ‘backdoor threat’, to the UK. Frankly, it is the UK’s lack of investment in Northern Ireland, and the UK’s ‘western’ approaches, that is the issue here. We are all aware of the shortcomings of the UK armed forces. That, was the fault of the Conservative Parties inability, to pay particular attention to the Defence budget, over the last 14 years. The fate of the UK Armed Forces, now lays in the ‘lap’, of the current incumbents. Hopefully their ‘defence review’ will focus on the needs… Read more »
The U.K. has committed in treaty to leave NI if there is ever a Unification result in a border poll , or are you suggesting to ignore that if it ever comes to pass?
Correct me if I’m wrong mate but does the republic get to have a say in any vote?
Yeah, the Republic would need to vote on it as well.
Ok 👍
There will never be a vote on unification.
Never a a hell of a statement, particularly when you have demographics resulting in a 40/40/20 split at this stage and a Unionist block that can’t manage to stop hitting itself.
NI leaves the UK, and there will be bloodshed on the streets. Sectarian hatred, is the worst kind. Don’t believe me… go chat to people who live in Glasgow.
The other sad part of the story, the Republic wants no part in sectarian trouble.
What does Glasgow have to do with anything? There may very well be bloodshed by Loyalists, however that doesn’t change the fact that the UK Government is committed to allowing a vote if the circumstances are there, and there’s a high chance of bloodshed if the UK refuses to allow a vote.
The Republic doesn’t want the headache but realistically is unlikely to refuse if the vote is ever called.
Sectarianism… Protestant v Catholic, as in Northern Ireland! Dude if you know little about the 100+ year old issues in the 6 Counties, why keep questioning me??
I know plenty of Irish history thanks, being Irish and living here kind of makes that impossible to miss, hence why I was wondering why you bothered with nonsense about Scotland when there’s plenty of examples in NI. It doesn’t change the reality that the UK is legally committed to a vote if the criteria is met, and the NI population isn’t the solid Unionist bloc it once was.
Never is a strong word, and not one I would use for such a complicated topic.
Well whoopty doo. Your not the only Irishman who uses this site! “Nonsense in Scotland”? Erm… I’ll let you tell them that.
Scotland is a nice play to visit, but I don’t live there, I really don’t care about their sectarian issues, really don’t care about the same in NI as long as they keep the “on fire” bit as contained as possible, if it ever votes to unify, then I will care. The UK is required to hold a vote if their is a likelihood of constitutional change, and yes thats likely to result in violence, not holding it if the situation meets the criteria will also result in violence, so either way its likely to end badly. Its Northern Ireland,… Read more »
I think a vote on unity will come sooner than later. As for the violence, as you say it’s almost ‘priced in’, the rabble rousers up there don’t need any particular excuse, every July loyalist gangs start burning neighbourhoods and throwing petrol bombs at police as a celebration of King William’s victory. It’s not just nationalist gangs. AFAIK, any Irish reunification would see NI as a devolved self governing province almost identical to the status quo, with Stormont as the legislature and the PSNI as the primary law enforcement agency. Other departments such as health, education, transport etc will place… Read more »
Theres plenty of angles for the economic issue, I mean there was an article a while back that had NI NHS staff earning the equivalent of an entire months wages working in the Republic for a week, and areas like Social Welfare are higher in the Republic as well.
And someone said, one of the first indications that Dublin is taking unification seriously will likely be a ramp up on the security spending both in the DF and Gardaí.
I think that increase in defence and security spending will become apparent soon enough.
It’s been interesting to see the FG junior minister very publicly backing moving to the LoA3 level of funding and capabilities over the summer, first time they’ve been pushing that. But given the lack of news and the upcoming GE I’m not expecting anything big in the budget, the focus will be on vote winning/buying measures.
I think it’s looking like a 10 plus year timeline to LoA3, taking into account politcs, infrastructure and training etc. Pending GE aside, the next government is likely to commit spending towards achieving LoA2, in the medium term with LoA3 following on from there ( whatever the world looks like then). I think there’s finally a recognition in Irish government circles that, as many here have commented, the current situation is untenable.
Moving towards LoA3 was always going to be such a 10-15 year process, the current commitment is to LoA2, which is meant to be done within the next government by 2028.
Nobody in their right mind wants to invade Ireland, and their Defense expenditure reflects this. What they have left is a legacy of the troubles. It won’t be long IMO until the Republic are like Iceland and have no standing military at all.
The greatest threat to the U.K. is the HMG and its glorious treasury. 30+ years of underfunding has undermined U.K. security to the point where it is now under critical mass. So it doesn’t much matter what the Irish are doing.
Back door? Our front door is pretty open too – no GBAD, lots of centres of gravity
If they dont want to do it the obvius solution is to establish leased bases. Has this been explored and what was the response? It doesnt have to be UK or USA it can be NATO.
The answer is and always has been no, there are not going to be leased bases in the Republic, the U.K. wants to do something in NI, that’s for them to decide and deal with.
Probably makes the case that at least 3 more P8 are needed and some Protector re-roled for Maritime search. A persistent high altitude drone or balloon with an search radar to push the detection range out to the west of Ireland. Perhaps keep the Typhoon Tranche 1. Heaven forbid they could have given the C130J to a private contractor with a bolt on radar, SAR and IR pod to monitor the region. A secure hangar at Belfast International for QRA if needed may suffice. If Russia is now a threat a SOSUS type chain of underwater surveillance supported by a… Read more »
To better protect the Western Approaches etc we require a far larger fleet of Maritiime assets both in the air and on the sea. NI gives little advantage to either. Faslane is not far and capable of supporting forward deployed surface units that can better protect the SSBN’s coming and going and with less time into the North Atlantic to carry out patrols etc. Air, there are several supporting airfields north of the border that can still take fast jets with Kinloss and Leuchars still very much working airfields and not forgetting Stornoway which can take far larger units if… Read more »
Good Morning Gentlemen. This subject has had some considerable airing of late as Mark says. Here in SA Irish people from both sides of the border have always got on very well despite the occasional barney after too many pints! One of my great Aunts at a ripe age saw a lady charging down the street many years back with an Irish Tricolour in full flight! She was so incensed that she pulled out her Union Jack and chased her down the road said UJ in hand and hobbling from the effects of advanced years. I’m not sure if she… Read more »
Morning geoff.
I never knew that!
The first Tricolour was presented to Thomas Meagher in 1848 by French sympathetic to Irish nationalism, and yes it was meant to symbolism peace and unity between the Catholics and Protestants.
Wow-I didn’t think it was that early, although I new, as with many modern Tricolours, it was inspired by the French flag. Some Irish Nationalists were not happy with the Orange and described the Flag as the Green, White and Gold although my Irish pals in Durban emphasized the Orange and rubbished the gold as nonsense.
..knew as with many modern…
Yeah the department of the Taoiseach which handles affairs around the flag have made it clear it’s Orange.
Morning Daniele. Hope you are well and thanks for updated state of Military in NI! as previously confessed, I set fire to the grass field in about 1956 or 7 at RAF Jordanstown which had no airfield-was a comms or admin Centre plus some training from memory.
Chet Later
Geoff
this issue is nothing new. Ireland has benefited from a ‘freebie defence for over a century. of it should have a far bigger defence force than it has. it’s a island nation, as we are if they expect to be bailed out of a military situation by the u.k not having anything to throw at it is a disgrace and the u.k should make it clear that it has no obligation to come to the Irish to help them out
My first thoughts are that we should be sorting our own house out before criticising neighbours. I don’t think we’ve been so weakly defended & unprepared for centuries. We have so few escorts, fighter squadrons, a tiny army. Prospects of improving are tied to circumstances somehow improving to fund them rather than ringfencing the essential investment according to the perilous state of international affairs. Ireland may need to do more but we’ve been badly neglecting our own defence commitments for decades. We rely on allies to cover for capability gaps we’ve allowed to happen, Ireland has done similar to us.… Read more »
All these types of articles are coming out now, but to understand why the UK government has been so slow on this type of defence you have look back over the last 20 years to see what their ficus has been. Iraq, Afghan etc, these have been static deployments overseas, we are moving back into the realms of the cold war but much more erratic. The threat is so diverse we cannot have a action plan for all types of potential threats. That could be countered by training your armed forces and giving them equipment and the ability to act… Read more »
Diplomacy with RAF Typhoons flying over Cork harbour.Freeloading Irish government, thought they were part of EU.
Surely a lack of British defense is a threat to Ireland. How can they be expected to sponge off us when we have nothing to sponge?