In a candid interview with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster issued a stark warning against any moves to scale back the U.S. military presence in Europe, stating that such actions would embolden authoritarian powers like Russia and China.
McMaster, who served as President Trumpâs National Security Advisor from 2017 to 2018, said: âThe people who argue myopically for [US] disengagement from Europe to prioritize the competition with China, I think theyâre misguided.â
He underscored the operational impact of potentially losing access to forward-deployed U.S. assets in Europe: âIt could be devastating, both for our ability to deter conflict and to respond to crises.â Recalling his efforts within the Trump administration, he said, âIn 2017⌠I brought President Trump an analysis of our immediate military response after the mass murder attacks of 9/11,â highlighting how vital European bases were to the speed and success of that response.
On broader deterrence, McMaster noted: âWeakness, and the perception of weakness, is what provokes Putin.â He linked historical examples of U.S. restraint to increased Russian assertiveness, including the âunenforced red line in Syria [in 2013]â and the âillegal annexation of Crimeaâ in 2014.
Asked about how forward deployments on NATOâs Eastern flank support U.S. objectives, McMaster warned of a strategic pattern: âWhat [Putin is] engaged in is⌠strategic behavior called probing â probing at the far reaches of American power, and wherever they assess that thereâs an opportunity, theyâll exploit that opportunity.â
He described this as part of a broader âshadow warâ against Europe: âEurope has been the object of a shadow war… These actions should help us recognize that it [Russia] will take whatever it can get.â
Finally, McMaster addressed the broader global context: âItâs a global competition because there has been a coalescing of this Axis of Aggressors. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have declared their partnership with no limits, and theyâve made clear their intention to forge a new era of international relations.â
You can read the full interview here: CEPA â The Future of US Bases in Europe.
Good luck with explaining any of that now to the cognitively impaired Agent Orange and his demented MAGA following.
Nah! we are alright apparently after his latest call with the puppet master he was told to tell everyone he trusted himđso alls goodđ
As long as a single US soldier, airmen or sailor is based in Europe then US nationalists and isolationist like JD will keep using this ridiculous argument that America guards Europe and that everyone is âsteelingâ from them.
Better for everyone if all us forces leave the continent. Canada is still in NATO without large bases in Europe so no reason the US canât do the same. NATO ground and airforces dwarf US forces in Europe.
An orderly draw down over 5 years is much better than a Trump 2028 over night retreat.
Maybe we need some usa Christian Bible Belt settlers on the eastern borders. Only thing is that some are following the Russian Orthodox Church. Life is weird. Heard this on radio 4 so hope I am not spreading disinformation.
Well yes they are religious extremists and as such see friends in all those with absolutist religious views they can identify with and the Russian Orthodox Church fits that profile perfectly in their eyes and thus to a degree the Govt they appear to support in both Countries. They conveniently forget the Russian Communist Party supports the Govt too. Explains perfectly how though there is little change in overall Russian attitudes amongst the manipulated masses since Soviet times, US Christian Zionists who are entrenched in the Old Testament and take it as literal hated them when they were simplistically deemed atheists but identify with them now they are deemed similar religious zealots. Thatâs how simplistically these people think. Really just shows how large sections of the people in both Countries can be manipulated and exploited by powerful forces for nefarious mostly political ends. As you say life is weird, how humans have got to where we are is the only miracle I believe in.
US forces in Europe are not very large @ 64,000 in total. Germany and Italy host the only significant permanent army units, a legacy of the pre 1989 cold war deployments. In UK, most of the personnel are air force.
The USA has much larger forces in the far east, with > 60% of naval assets operating in the Pacific.
Trump clearly wants to retain American influence over large parts of the world. Only two things deliver that- money and military power. He is probably bright enough to understand that but also likes to complain , with some justification, about unfair burden sharing. I hope he still listens to McMaster
With the attention span of a budgie and memory of a goldfish I very much doubt that.
Fact is the loss of Europe would ensure US power in Asia would be unsustainable just the nature of World political and power dynamics. Europe is now a vital flank that protects Western and fundamental US influence everywhere politically, economically and militarily. US military in Europe is a trigger mechanism, to lose that would be dangerous for all concerned as we see Russia is more than happy to exploit foreign forces and that could have terrible implications if Europe and the US link is broken which is why Russia and China have worked so hard for decades to achieve it. Letâs hope even the budgie can comprehend that in the end but many of his advisor and voter constituency seem not to I suspect Rubio does however despite the tightrope he is traversing.
Likely more cost effective for usa to keep a minimal presence in Europe as insurance for more war breaking out in Europe. Also it facilitates arms sales to Europe from America. Why buy American if it doesnât come with security. Obviously Europe needs to do more for itself.
Totally agree Simon. Fact is the US decades of wanting to be in control and suppress European influence in big power politics has had the apparent disregarded effect of Europe becoming far too reliant on the US military the sort of âno taxation without representationâ effect unfortunately, a feeling of powerlessness and compliance and thus over reliance. Trump obviously is exploiting this to beat Europe with a big stick but if it does wake us up finally to realities then that too is an uni tended consequence of a Trump wanting all the power still (more indeed) while expecting Europe to just spend more on US technology maintaining the compliance. Europe needs independence not more compliance.
MAGA would disagree and would label him a traitor.
Trump is building golden balls anyway at the exclusion of the west except for Canada. The only reason Canada will be covered by this so called dome is because of Alaska.
Canada didn’t ask to be included as Canada has just ordered an over horizon radar from Australia.
The US has the luxury of projecting power and has done for 80 years and would be foolish to retreat as an isolation nation it all makes China’s ambition easier.
Absolutely Mark the US is in danger of deepening the naive sense of an unassailable island when in reality it needs all the friends it can get, the problem with playing power politics as part of a business model over insightful understanding of geo political realities. At the very least sticks need carrots not more threatened bigger sticks to friends and bigger carrots to enemies because they are the only ones you delusionally respect and fear.
Unlike the UK safe in the Atlantic the US shares an ocean with the only really dangerous country on the planet.
Isolationism is a luxury they canât afford.
We could turtle up in the North Atlantic and be safe from any non nuclear threat as Russia is a joke.
We choose not to and hopefully we continue to be outward looking.
Again… everyone is misinterpretting the Trump administration’s rhetoric as his actual beliefs rather than a negotiating position.
Trump is going to play Europe like a fiddle until people get their heads around this.
The bases were never going to close. America was never going to withdraw from Europe. But he needed that threat to be believeable for Europeans to finally take defence seriously. We are 3 years into the Ukraine war and it is only since Trump came to office a few months ago that Europe has actually made a solid commitment to increasing defence spending. Why do you think that is?
I for one am thankful for this.
agree trump got europe spending on defence. agree a govt should be measured on policy or what it did, not the daily emotions of each day of which there is plenty. however trump does not like europe, it is not maga, and he is very OK with autocrats. lets see the deals he ends up making.
I agree.
I’m always amused reading the comments, though.
SDI reborn, although of course it just went black and never really went away
Really ? Have we in the UK actually stepped up since 2022, not one single major bit of new kit ordered ! Just words, projects and reviews.
Carrickter While partly right that is fundamentally naive too. Yes he added urgency his capriciousness does that but Europe was if too slowly (as is still the case) increasing defence spending before he arrived. Poland has been spending for years now, even the UK hasnât really changed its plan just emphasised it more to please him. Germany has had a problem selling increasing the military due to its past and public distaste and has had to gradually pave the way for it. Ironically the guy who is now pushing hard to force the change through is an overt enemy of Trump but keen on re-asserting German power, donât think Trump has changed his attitude only the fact that Trump and Musk got him unexpectedly elected thanks to their â4 dimensionalâ game of snap. So much for Trump knowing what he is actually doing as if his clown show on tariffs and DOGE havenât already informed us of that.
I understand what you are saying, but I think the outcomes here are intentional. Firstly, make Europe step up on defence even if that means pouring cold water on the cosy euro-american relationship that has existed to this point (and has facilitated Europe’s weakness and reliance on America). And on tariffs, he’s effectively got what he wanted. Look at the UK trade deal we did a couple of weeks ago – essentially we made significant compromises to get back to something akin to what existed before. Europe loses in a trade war with America because of the trade balance – Ireland is about to get sacrificed by the EU to ease its own pain on the eventual settlement. And with China he now has higher tariffs on their goods than they have on Americas – again a big win for America. The volatility is a distraction, but America has emerged in a much stronger position. Trump doesn’t care if you hate him.
Why should 350 million Americans have to defend 450 million Europeans from 150 million Russians, especially since the British government is about to sign an agreement making the UK an EU colony?
Look at it a different way. Why should Europe help America defend itself against 1.4 billion Chinese, especially as America is proving unreliable in HELPING Europe defend itself against Russia.
I donât think Trump is asking for Europeâs help against China. He asking us to look after ourselves against Russia so that he can look after China. Seems a fair deal to me.
And we (UK plus the continent of Europe) can well afford to do it if we change our current spending priorities. But that requires our politicians to have balls (sorry, Ladies, but you know what I mean), which presently they donât have, hence their head in the sand bottom-squirming.
Actually we donât directly need to, it would be a logistics nightmare, we have no biases out there and weâd just get in the way besides which he hasnât asked us to !
What the Trump, Biden and Obama (though Trump was blunt about it) have asked Europe and Canada to do is to step up and outmatch Russia and take care of that part of the problem. Everyone sees China as a US problem on its own and they look outmatched until you add on their Allies such as S Korea, Japan and Australia.
America is not asking Europe to help deal with China. In fact, if recent news reports are to be believed American officials have suggest that the UK should reduce its ambitions east of Suez and instead focus on the European theatre.
And years of underfunding of European defence, long lambasted by most of us on here and across the American political spectrum, we wouldn’t have much to offer in the Pacific theatre. UK, France and Italy could, at a push, provide small carrier groups. Europe doesn’t have the capability or willingness to deploy serious military force at scale in the Pacific theatre.
China is a bigger threat to the world than Russia. They have their eyes set on Taiwan, which is far more crucial to the world economy than Ukraine ever was, primarily because of TSMC dominating computer chip manufacturing, producing about two thirds of worldwide supply. And China has done some damned ugly things in its Uighur province. China is set to become the biggest economy in the world soon (already is on some PPP measures I believe), and has an industrial capacity way in excess of the US and Europe combined. It also has many anti-western allies such as North Korea, Iran and Pakistan. And is rapidly gaining influence and power across Africa. So it is not a surprise that America’s focus has to shift from Russia to China.
Not to mention the treat to other countries and international trade through the South China Sea. Japan and South Korea are strong regional allies that provide a counterweight to China that far outmatches anything Europe can currently contribute.
India will become increasily important in this theatre too, as they will increasingly challenge China now that they’ve overtaken them population wise (they share a contested border too). China’s close relationship with their old enemy Pakistan doesn’t help either.
Trumps trade agreement offer (rather than the nebulous pr announcement we saw) was going to make us the 51st State, we already pretty much have to do what we are told as our economies have become so intertwined since they held a sword over us since the war. We owned a third of their economy pre war they own most of ours now so the idea of being a European colony is patently ridiculous, indeed Europe is our only real hope of retaining enough independence from the US to decide that we donât become East Massachusetts.
As I say elsewhere a lot of Europe becoming ridiculously military weak is a direct result of US policy post war whereby they didnât want Europe to have more than a nominal say politically and deliberately quashed all efforts by Europe helped by Britain sadly, to create any form of united military formation of whatever nature because it threatened US hegemony and the single voice it wanted in confronting Russia with Europe compliant to its policies. This also had the benefit of US weapon sales (often politically and strategically enforced by the way) becoming dominant and very valuable to the US. Sadly this US exploited this disunited Europe and feeling it had no real influence in big power politics and the inevitable shock of what war can do that the US had not experienced as a nation fell into this naive complacency. As I must emphasise the US wanted this political European feebleness while exploiting it to compliantly buy its weapons and thus very much contributed to this situation, because it suited them. The change now to their attitude is the rise of China over Russia as the big threat and as we see with Ukraine wants us to remain politically feeble while upping the US weaponry it buys. Doing its best to prevent European weaponry working with its platforms is directly related to this military/economic policy.
That is exactly the sort of simpleton simplicity that Trump will indeed understand Daniel. In reality itâs rather more complex from that.
And if anyone thinks the US wonât expect Europe (allies more generally) to help in any conflict with China is equally naive, it expected it in Vietnam whereby Britain came under immense pressure to take part (and damaged relations for some time) and of course triggered Article 5 after 9/11 to gain European support. It will want it in any conflict with China, the fact we canât make much of a difference isnât really relevant, compliance is expected especially by Trump and MAGA absolutists. What more would you expect from those who out of power claim to be free speech absolutists when in power want to prosecute even actors and singers for daring to speak out against his policies. Getting Europe involved will similarly be part of his usual âanti anythingâ rhetoric that benefits that appeal to his political constituency, even though he would self servingly either want us not to do anything or will simply claim any help isnât enough to fuel that loyalist fire blah, blah, blah. Canât believe people are still fooled by his one dimensional antics. Explained only I expect by the story that when touted for the Apprentice a Company media executive asked the Producer why would you want a failed under employed âbusiness failureâ to front a supposedly professional business show. In reply he was told âwell unlike others heâs available, willing and will be ratings goldâ. The rest is history. Ratings gold over any semblance of professionalism wins the day in the modern very public world, just ask Musk.
Why should 450 million Europeans have spent billions in blood and treasure in defending 350 million Americans against Islamist terrorism?
The kind of terrorism sponsors that Trump is now cosying up to with his corrupt crypto coin deals.
See as usual our fake American poster proves my point. We need all us forces back in America to shut muppets like Daniel up.
I actually think the US Army and some Navy units withdrawing is an inevitable consequence of the impending US Defence cuts. I canât stand Trump, MAGA and everything they stand for, but even a broken clock is right twice a day, in his 1st Term he quite bluntly told NATO to get their hands out of the USAâs pockets and spend more on their own defence.
Most listened and did the minimum necessary, those nearest Russia went much further, however others have sat on their hands, continued to accept US largesse and quite frankly take the P out of the US and the majority of their NATO allies.
Spain, Canada, Italy, Portugal and Belgium just sit there and hope no one notices, so if it were me Iâd move NATO HQ out of Brussels, close Rota (Gibs nice), and all the Army and Navy bases in Italy (Suda in Crete / Cyprus).
The US will probably withdraw from everything other than its Strategic / Intelligence Bases and those that protect them.
When you sit back and look at it why are the only true ABM capable Warships in Europe (USN AB Destroyers) based at Rota and what is the US Army doing with Army bases in Italy ? Why it makes no sense.
Really daft thing is 600 million people having their defences subsidised by a country of 320 million ! If you want to listen to a really interesting interview on this then watch Radoslaw Sikorski being interviewed on the BBC about a week ago, very clear and well thought out.
I would agree with most of that, despite my claims itâs not all one sided elsewhere in how Europes complacency came about. By the way pressure on Europe to do more well pre dates Trump. Obama and other Presidents put pressure on us and yes we were fools to disarm the way we did. I will say that once has to consider the immense costs Germany and Western Europe generally faced post Soviet era in rebuilding Eastern Europe and one can see how decisions to spend money economically over militarily came about especially as a Europe once decimated by war in living memory wanted to believe such threats were finally over. Naive and I have always said it was inherently naive but I can still see how such thinking came about, people in the thirties werenât ready for the real threats either which is why Britains rearmament was greatly kept from them even as we re-armed. The US thought different as the major superpower which along with economic supremacy came out of the war that so decimated others, so no surprise thinking and politics took different directions in both leaders and the populace and disarmament became such an important if naive influence.
Only recent events has really allowed the counter arguments to become dominant in the European psyche and enabling democratically elected Govtâs to take these difficult decisions that so effect their popularity. Geez even in the US modern conflicts are having a disabling effect on the people regarding conflict, itâs one of the main themes of Trumpâs election to take the US out of foreign conflicts and wars (mostly greatly created by them ironically) which in further irony has led to the great pressure on âforeignersâ to do it instead especially European defence which post war was very much seen as US defence and sustaining US supremacy in the World and thus the general disregard for European sensibilities though that was always going to be a two edged sword. However wanting all the power and influence plus profit from weapon sales, while expecting, as happened till thus century, European force numbers to do as they were effectively told (even if it was in their own ultimate interest) was always going to have unintended and potentially dangerous consequences and damage European self confidence, which the Americans complacently didnât consider too for far too long.
Ironically it somewhat mirrors the lead up to the War of Independence whereby the colonies were expected to pay for the defence of the very land that Britain had gained for them (in the Seven years war) after those colonists were losing a campaign of their very own making opportunistically against the French. They werenât simplistically thankful to us either they just wanted the benefits of the Continent being theirs, so perhaps Americans needed to be a little more understanding of European sensibilities too over these post war decades, but for much of it Europe was a psychologically scared mess so you can see their view too as the only truly powerful and rich power. So of course across the pond, as it did in Britain and Parliament here in the late 18th Century things understandably look very different and more black and white, a gut reaction many here tend to fall into too without considering the bigger complex historical picture that does add at least some nuance. Either way I agree we are at a crossroads now as the US is not only not willing but physically unable to dominate in the way they were once happy to do. Just hope especially post Trump it realises that it needs more friends and allies, not less. Itâs in all our best interests.
The US must maintain European alliances to be WELCOME in those countries.
Resentful, insufferable fools.