Russian forces are making only incremental advances in Ukraine, with no decisive battlefield breakthroughs, while sustaining losses that a senior NATO official described as unprecedented in modern European warfare.
Speaking to journalists at NATO Headquarters, the official said bad weather and favourable Russian force ratios had likely contributed to “modest” gains over the past month, but argued Moscow’s progress remained tactical and constrained by force quality and logistics. “Their operational effectiveness is constrained by manpower quality, by logistic strain and adaptation by the opposing forces, which have produced localized gains with no decisive battlefield breakthroughs,” the senior NATO official said.
The official said Russia had continued to make incremental gains on the Pokrovsk, Vuhledar and Zaporizhzhia axes, while pushing toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from multiple directions, but stressed that Ukrainian activity had also reversed some positions in recent days. “In recent days, we’ve seen Ukrainian forces take back some settlements there as well,” the official said, adding that Kyiv had carried out clearance operations in Kupiansk, even as Russian infiltration attempts persisted.
Despite Moscow’s continued pressure through UAVs, artillery and what the official called “attritional tactics”, the senior NATO official said Ukraine’s defences were not expected to collapse this year. “Despite Ukrainian limited reserves and thin defenses, the total collapse of Ukrainian defenses remains unlikely anytime this year,” the official said.
The briefing’s most striking claims centred on casualties. The senior NATO official said Russia had suffered “almost 400,000 dead and wounded in 2025 alone,” and estimated total Russian killed and wounded since the start of the full-scale invasion at around 1.3 million.
Moscow continues to sacrifice more men and women than in any European conflict since the Second World War, the official said, arguing those losses were being absorbed without Russia achieving its strategic objectives. The official also accused Russia of inflating its battlefield narrative, saying Moscow was constructing an information environment designed to portray Ukrainian defeat as inevitable, often presenting the capture of small villages as major victories to shape negotiations.
“Small, remote villages… do not equate to strategic breakthroughs that would achieve Russia’s goal of preemptive Ukrainian capitulation anytime soon,” the senior NATO official said.
Looking ahead, the official said the most likely scenario remained continued attritional warfare, with Russia retaining an advantage on the ground but making advances that were primarily tactical and concentrated in less well-defended areas.
The Russian populations ability to absorb is insane.
I’m in Thailand at the minute and it’s packed with Russians.
Maybe they are affluent from the oil rich east but none appear downbeat, spending money and enjoying themselves. I assume its the poor or paid for mercenaries that are dying as not all of those here can be dodging the call up
I’ve seen a few military emblems and T shirts but surprisingly these last few years most just look normal.