The United Kingdom has claimed that Russia is likely to be ramping up claims Ukraine is developing nuclear or biological weapons as “retrospective justification” for its invasion.

In its latest intelligence update on Tuesday, the Ministry of Defence said:

“Since the end of February there has been a notable intensification of Russian accusations that Ukraine is developing nuclear or biological weapons. These narratives are long standing but are currently likely being amplified as part of a retrospective justification for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

Britain’s Chief of the Defence Staff recently said that it is not ‘inevitable’ that Russia will defeat Ukraine.

Asked on BBC News recently whether Russia winning was ‘inevitable’ Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, said:

“No. I think we’ve seen a Russian invasion that is not going well. I think we’re also seeing remarkable resistance by Ukraine, both its armed forces and its people and we’re seeing the unity of the whole globe coming together, applying pressure to Russia.

Russia is suffering, Russia is an isolated power. It is less powerful than it was ten days ago. Some of the lead elements of Russian forces have been decimated by the Ukrainian response. You’ve also seen basic failures in terms of maintenance and their kit failing. Russia hasn’t operated at this scale since the Second World War and it is incredibly complex and difficult.”

British defence chief says Russian victory ‘not inevitable’

George Allison
George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
Twitter

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR

90 COMMENTS

    • Blind obedience will take them so far but the regime is clearly worried that there might be a limit to that obedience which is why they don’t want their population to find out what is really happening.

      • The echoes of the Nazis is more disturbing, war criminals indescrimate targeting of civilians threats to instigate nuclear confrontation sham we won’t be able to lend the war crimes court a British hangman like in 1945

    • I think they would rather be obeyed because their people believe them. This conflict did not start overnight. There are historical reasons behind the distrust and hatred. That said, it became inevitable in 2014. This entire mess has been orchestrated by parties in the two antagonist countries and outside interests for quite a long time.

      • I don’t think Ukraine can be blamed for any of this. The people did not want to be part of Russia so overthrew the pro-russian puppet government. Since then they have been a stable democracy. Russia then Invaded them in 2014 purely out of spite for having the cheek to want to be free. They then continued to be a stable democracy but unsurprisingly wanted the protection of being in NATO. They are a sovereign state so have the freedom to make their own choices on the matter. Putin is not afraid of NATO invading Russia as he knows it is a defensive organisation. He is worried that it will stop him reconstructing the Soviet Union which is his ultimate end game. He is also – like all these dictators – very thin skinned and cries like a little baby anytime he thinks someone has shunned him or disagrees with him. Ultimately these dictators are fragile, weak and frightened little cowards who hide behind their power. Other potential Russian leaders are not bothered at all by NATO and just want to be friendly towards their neighbours. Unfortunately these potential leaders have been thrown in jail to prevent them from unseating Putin. Russia is not bad it just has a very bad leadership. there are plenty of people in Russia who simply want to live in peace and with friendly relations to the rest of Europe. They are just not allowed to say so publicly as that would now land them in jail for 15 years!

  2. Well if Russia is going too pull that old story then they should raise it at the UN , Colin Powell played that card in 2003 this time it will be like watching Roy chubby brown funny and Vulgar

    • Even better…Call their bluff.
      “The UK is seriously concerned about the issue.
      we propose a immediate cease fire and a return to pre 2014 borders for all forces.”
      “An independent UN team can enter the country and validate these disturbing allegations using the proof that Russia has in its possession”.

      Suddenly it wont be that big an issue and Russia will be ” Nahhh…We got this its OK its not that big a deal…”

      Everyone else will be “wondering” why it suddenly isn’t an issue anymore…

      • Hi Gunbuster ,thanks but I would still like too see all the delegates of the UN rolling around in fits of laughter when Pinoccho takes too the floor

      • I agree. We should have done that with Russia’s fake stories of atrocities in Donbass. Also before that in Crimea. I said at the time we should just call their bluff and say “We take your worries seriously and so we have dispatched a group of peacekeepers to work alongside you to make sure the people are safe”. It seems we just sit around and wait for things to happen rather than being proactive.

        We could also have sent in a large force to do exercises with Ukraine and then just left them their like Putin did in Belarus.

  4. Evidently, Putins ploy of a special operation (War) too DeNazify Ukraine is a Non Starter because that would also include the Kremlin and himself Derrr!!!!

  5. As the Russian military move forward and take Ukrainian military and sensitive compounds it would not surprise me if they start planting fake evidence to justify their actions.

  6. Well Putin has invented a lot of things to try and justify what he’s doing – nukes, neo Nazism, threats from NATO, a wholly fictional version of Ukrainian history to suggest they are Russian down to their core and belong in the fold.

    None of it is expected to be believed. Him and his regime are now firmly in the post truth ‘reality is whatever I say it is’ space which is frightening but at least it’s finally showed the world what he really is and wants.

  7. They’re not ramping up those claims to justify the invasion. They’re ramping up the claims to justify extreme escalation in a week or two’s time. Once they’ve achieved their territorial ambitions they can escalate to nuclear or chemical brinkmanship to try wriggle out of sanctions and hold their strategic goals without facing a prolonged insurgency.

    We’re fucking up really hard by not giving the Ukrainian’s what they need to rout the Russian’s now.

    • What do you propose we send them that we haven’t already? A lot of anti tank and anti air missiles are being delivered.

      • A lot has been delivered which proves that there is room to arm Ukraine without starting WW3. What the Ukrainian’s need is NLOS anti-tank and loitering munitions. It will stop dead Russian armoured assaults and have a huge psychological effect that will make them uncomfortable trying to hold ground.

          • NLAW is brilliant, it’s not enough. If it was enough the Ukrainian’s wouldn’t be facing the loss of most of of the South and East of their country in the coming week or two.

  8. “we’re seeing the unity of the whole globe coming together”

    Nope. Not Asia, South or Central America, or Africa. Many nations from these areas might vote to condemn at the UN but words and votes are cheap.

    • Unity in Europe where it matters finally, for how long though? Sanctions are going to hurt us all let’s hope we can weather it.

      • Not sure what we need from Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama besides the UN votes they delivered. I’ll stick to believing the Lancastrian Radakin.

      • They’ve got their own interests to think about, but yes I’m sure it’ll be remembered when they’re up against the Chinese with the shite russian equipment they’re sitting on the fence with

        • Let’s remember not to get involved if India is attacked, they have shown the way, just look the other way and leave them too it……

          Utterly unreliable allies.

          • They never really were. They’re much more dependent on the Russians hence the fence, most of Asia hates the West and those chickens are coming home to roost unfortunately

    • As an ex South African, I’m ashamed at their response to these events. The sheer gall of supporting Putin by stating sanctions against Russia are unwarranted and unfair.

      • It sadly comes as no surprise Klonkie, another country that’s badly in need of ‘responsible government’, unfortunately the ANC can do no wrong in the majority of the electorates eyes, no matter how much certain individuals steel off the people.

        Very sad…..

        • Speaking of South Africa their forces are paltry to say the least I’ve thought about using retiring type 23’coul be used for leverage with dealings with other nations a t23 in exchange for basing rights at Simon’s town could be beneficial to the u.k.forward basing of type 31’s offers the nation many options it is to be hoped that the t31 is a success and that the RN could end up with more than 5

          • its an interesting idea Andy -plenty of available berthing and logistical space at Simonstown naval bases for RN forward deployment.

        • it is a sad state of affairs. Then again, the electorate only has itself to blame for perpetually voting the ANC back in again and again

      • South Africa should be a far str6 state on the world stage strategically it is able to influence and shape much of the world’s sea traffic.by virtue of the cape I’d love to be a fly on the wall at the MOD watching the suits running around looking for any kit that isn’t already deployed elsewhere

  9. Missed the news over the last few days is there anywhere reliable showing Russian attrition?

    Also, frontline losses coupled to Leadership getting slotted is going to hurt. Thoughts?

    • Italy, Netherlands, Belgium Germany and Turkey host B61 under nuclear sharing for use on there Tornado and F16 fleets. Nato is a nuclear alliance.

      • Whilst you have a good point unless you are suggesting those countries have somehow bypassed the US launch code system they are still under US control. Therefore are they nuclear powers? Estonia for example could expect to be defended by the other members but not necessarily with nukes. Indeed it is very likely nukes would not be used unless the US/UK or France were in peril.

        • One of the key reasons the U.K. has retained its own Nuclear Deterrent. It essentially means the U.K. if attacked by nuclear weapons has the option of not only responding in its own right, but it would force a full nuclear exchange. So while we the US and France are all NATO members we all get the benefit of each other’s nuclear weapons as well as the strategic ambiguity of three fingers on the Nuclear trigger.

          So if say U.K. cities were targeted with a strike and the U.K. responded, the US would also have to respond ( as would we the other way around) Not because of the article 5 treat itself, but because of Russian or Chinese perception of article five and the likely hood of NATO wide response as well a U.K. strike would leave the nation catastrophically weak and finally they would not actually know which of the three NATO powers had launched in the response.

          Other nato powers sort of have to hope that the NATO Nuclear powers would respond to a nuclear attack on another nato nation with its own nuclear response. This I think is where NATO would potentially falter. Which U.K. french or US leader would respond knowing that the response back will utterly destroy their nation….I honestly don’t think there is a leader of any of the nuclear powers that would sacrifice their own nation for say….Turkey.

          • A good point. Id take the question a step further. If Russia were to fire some tactical nukes into Ukraine to eliminate resistance, what would US/UK/France response be?

          • I don’t know. Tbh but I suspect it would not be a nuclear response. I don’t think Putin would do that as it risks tipping China and India against him….that’s probably as much a consideration as NATO’s response especially when NATO have already said they will only actively defend a NATO nation.

          • The thing is that there are rumours he has terminal cancer (Hence the fat face from steroids etc). If that is true then he will not care what happens after he is gone. It is clear that he has little care for the people of Russia.

          • The Chinese low profile worries me I think they hold the puppet master card and can manipulate the world situation as it suits them

          • its very tin foil hat. But I think China is playing very hard ball geopolitics and is working Russia into a client state. China wants its hydrocarbons, raw materials and food production. I’m sure it would also like another nuclear armed power.

            Give it a little while and Russia will sit in the spot of a chinese hegemony that the U.K. sits in with the US hegemony (world and nuclear power that is a subordinate Power within the hegemony But still independent and powerful).

            you have to remember that China is using a British imperial playbook, but is more like the US in that it sees itself as potential leader of a hegemony not an imperial power.

          • Table thumping and political rhetoric.but unless a Nato nation is attacked a different reaction to the one currently being followed would be unlikely

          • All excellent points. The thing that Ukraine has highlighted is that Russia has not got a conventional force that could compete with NATO. Whilst it could use battlefield nukes which would cause issues for Eastern European nations they would not give Russia the upper hand regardless of NATO continuing with conventional attacks or using battlefield nukes itself. The net result is the best Russia can hope for is MAD which at best is no benefit to anyone?

      • On the nuclear issue I understand that there is a constant boat at sea, another in maintenance and the final one in training. Is the training boat available for activation into an operational role doubling the at sea deterrence?

    • I think the balance of power has been shifting east for some time and will continue. But, I don’t think for one moment it has much to do with Russia. China is a greater threat to Russia than the West; it’s only Putin that has convinced his own people that the threat is NATO. Does anyone here think NATO even considered attacking Russia? The thought never really crossed my mind. The greatest ambassador for NATO has been Putin. I do genuinely believe that if it Putin never gained power in Russia, NATO may well be in the process of disbanding this decade. Do you remember when people were asking what is the point of NATO 15-20 years ago?
      China is playing it smart and hoping that one of its big competitors will get a kicking without China lifting a finger.

      • For NATO to attack Russia is a fantasy there is no point in doing it anyway NATO US A DEFENSIVE ORGANISATION

      • NATO may well expand further to take in Countries who feel threatenened by China. NATO is defensive though and everyone knows it especially the Russians and the Chinese.

    • Well I’ll give it a try. Being cut off from the rest of the world isn’t going to go well – look what happened to the USSR. As for China I’m not at all certain they will want to be tarred with the same brush. They rely on trade and will have noticed many distancing themselves for a number of reasons. Much of what is produced in China can be made by machines, elsewhere or not bought at all.

      It is true that China are developing their military but they might be a little put off throwing their weight around after seeing the mess in Ukraine. The history books are full of stories of large powers forgetting that conquest is not enough – they need to hold the ground until they run out of angry people to fight them especially if they are fed with arms.

      Countries belong to their inhabitants and they tend to get a little annoyed at those who forget that. Nuclear weapons will not change that.

      This is not to say that everything will be rosy, in fact things could go very badly but nothing will change that. People will fight to the death for freedom. Ordinary Russians will find that out and maybe will want a little more freedom themselves regardless of the consequences.

      • The Soviet regime fell because it was bankrupt the sanction strategy could do the same Putin and his fellow fools at the Kremlin could fall at any given moment that would leave the same vacuum that allowed Putin to take the power.

        • True. The issue is that sooner or later the Russian people need to take matters into their own hands and pick their own Government. When they become sufficiently motivated to do that then they will move in the same direction as the other former soviet republics such as Ukraine, Estonia etc. and join the modern world ultimately with little more to critise their Goverment for than whether or not the PM had a brithday cake😀.

    • Unless we intervene & push Russia out of Ukraine, the lesson will be learnt that a nuclear power can invade anyone but the west will not dare intervene militarily to stop them.

      • We are helping in Ukraine but we are not taking over militarily. This is a fight they have a good chance of winning. True if the agressor had not been a nuclear power & P5 member the security council might have authorised military intervention. However we need to deal with the real world as best we can.

    • I think it will become weaker as it relies on China. China will not see Russia as its equal. Also there is a longstanding issue with the annexation of Manchuria by the Russians and China want it back. I can see them leveraging the crisis in Russia in order to push forward with that. Russia will simply become Chinas puppet.

      • I think you are assuming Putin stays after what will be seen as a humiliating defeat.New Government might mean new direction.

        • It will not be a humiliating defeat though, at least not in the eyes of Putin himself or anyone that only gets to watch the news that he allows to be broadcast… It will be a sensational success and the whole of Russia will (be forced) to rejoice!

          I suspect any new Government will simply be the same one as they have now but with one of Putins cronies as leader.

          • His troops will come home and they will know. The population will see the effects of sanctions & wonder why. News filters through it will be difficult to ignore. When times are good people might turn a blind eye but ….

          • Some will know. Others are totally blinded by the Russian media. I saw one interview with someone in Ukraine whose mother is Russian and refused to believe her that there was a war happening! She believed the Russian media over her own daughter who was in the middle of the whole thing!

            Also it is now an offence to talk about the truth of the conflict and it can get you 15 years in prison!

            So there are large numbers of people who only get their news from Putin’s TV channels and those that do know what is happening are prevented from saying anything.

    • China is the scary beast under the bed would it side with the Russians would it support a North Korean àttack on the south could China take advantage of the current situation to make a grab for tiawan could the Arabs go for Israel? so many possibilities so much to worry about.

  11. I have just finished reading “Nothing is true and everything is possible” by Peter Pomerantsev. Written in 2015, it gives an idea of the Russian mindset. That you can be a good atheist communist, then a liberal capitalist & then a devout orthodox nationalist. This is how Russians survive paying lip service to who or what is in power that moment. Even back in 2015, the Kremlin & its TV stooges were getting Russians to slip into conversation, lines like “Russia is strong again, we’ve got up from our knees”, “All the World fears us”, “The West is out to get us”, “There are traitors everywhere”.

  12. Shootin Putin has played a blinder, the West has failed to arm against a 20th Century war, believing that such a concept belonged back there. They laughed at Trump for his blatant criticism about NATO members not pulling their weight, and now look what is before us all. We simply can’t grasp the fact that Putin holds the high ground whether he does well militarily in Ukraine or not. Grand plans for the EU all but scuppered, as vital social budgets get slashed to pay for defence. The US budget will be screwed down tight as the lion’s share of huge military spending and foreign deployments push aside the ‘Infrastructure Bill.’ As for the UK, the RAF and RN seem to have sound future plans, as for the army, this whole debacle could not come at a worst time!

    • I doubt whether anyone is actually worried about Putins conventional military right now after its poor performance in Ukraine. I can’t understand your comment “Putin holds the high ground”! This has been the most embarrassing and shocking performance by Russia for the last 50 years and Putin rather than holding the high ground should be holding his head in a bucket of sand.

      • Escalation is an issue for both sides. If Putin were not worried about a nuclear conflict why not start with ther Baltic states? Quicker and easier.

      • Even if his military performs less well than expected, Putin is screwing the World into recession and that is his real power. One man has the best brains baffled and he will demonstrate further cunning before he’s brought to heel. As I said, the war is only one of the many tricks he has planned if he’s allowed to stay in office.

        • Unfortunately this is always the way of the world. Even in school we had a couple of psychopaths who were not in the slightest bit strong. Pretty much anyone including the girls could overpower them. However they did not care if they got hurt and did not care about consequences so they simply stabbed people in the head with a compass or threatened people with scissors.

          If someone simply does not care about consequences then they are incredibly dangerous to those that do.

        • Honestly, he’s not baffled anyone with half a brain.

          He’s your standard psychopath. Everything he’s done can be explained by that. They only care for what they want, and only what others want if it can further their goals.

          As @lee1 said, you see it in schools. There’s always one or two nutters. Usually though, we manage as societies to keep them out of power. Or the worst ones at least (and and most psychopathic are also very self-destructive).

      • Putin is a long-term player and he is frustrating the hell out of the West. The high ground has been his invasion, whether he can keep it is down to the Ukrainian and Russian people? It is just possible his forces are suffering a backdraft caused by information being fed to them from home? Some Russian equipment has been discovered totally intact but abandoned, which may prove there is some truth in the rumours, or they simply ran out of fuel? The fact that they didn’t stay and fight speaks volumes.

        • If Putin comes out of this without a 9mm hole in the back of his head he’ll be a lucky fella. If he has the chance he should retire to one of his palaces. There’s a very interesting leaked FSB report on Sky Australia that makes very interesting reading about how they think this is playing out.

      • Only because the west is too weak & stupid to stop him or to have detered him from doing it in the first place.
        Should’ve drawn the line in the sand before the invasion that if he did, we would intervene to defend Ukraine & repell his invaders. Stating we wouldn’t send troops gave him all he could want. Sanctions take years to work, if they ever do,. They can precipitate a war by making the target think they have to attack to obtain what they need, as in Japan’s case in 1941.
        We have been at war with Russia & China for some time, Time to get our heads out of the sand & counter effectively before it goes too far.

    • The blinder will come if he manages to dig himself out of the hole he has dug for himself. I think he might have forgotten that Russia is not the USSR and has not got the kit or personnel for a conventional war of any size.

    • I think what the Ukrainians are showing us is that having an army that is large in size, well trained and well armed is incredibly important.

  13. Not surprising.
    Anti-vaccine conspiracy groups and pages on social media started claiming a few days ago that there were Pentagon funded biological warfare labs in the Ukraine. I wouldn’t be surprised if they ‘discover’ soon that Corvid-19 was engineered in one of these: the Chinese have previously blamed the Americans for bringing the virus to China during the 2019 World Military Games. Russian trolls are behind a lot of the story’s in the conspiracy theory world.

    I’m sure JohninMK can confirm this practice.

    • Agreed mate the anti-vax crew are desperate as all they spout is shite, and want to (desperate to) believe that all the chuff that they have hobbled off about is true!

  14. Both sides in this war received the same training from the old soviets and KGB. I would be very careful before accepting any claims as genuine. Col. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and his ex-KGB cronies are very much the devil we know. Maskirovka means the same in Russian and Ukrainian. All the best lies have a varying amount of twisted truth to be believability.
    Make of that what you may. I am just thankful that we are not obliged to send ground troops OR airpower into the maelstrom. With any luck NATO governments will quickly realise the error of their disarmament ways.

  15. Putin is just Trolling us. Mad, bizare & extreme lies & threats. He’s thrown all credability & respect he ever had out the window.

  16. My worry bead is that the Russian media is repeatedly claiming the US has installed biological warfare labs in Ukraine. I just hope Russia is not building up to releasing a bio weapon and blaming it on the US to divert world condemnation against America instead.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here