Russia is planning to hold a live fire naval exercise off the southwest coast of Ireland in early February.
The number of warships taking par tis not yet known but the location for the exercise is around 240km off the southwest cost of Ireland in international waters but within Ireland’s maritime economic zone.
Twitter user Robert Gilbey posted an image showing the location of the exercise.
Time for another thread.
A live fire Russian naval exercise has been scheduled inside the Irish EEZ, at a time when tensions on Russian military build ups relative to Ukraine are high.
What do we know and what can we speculate on? pic.twitter.com/y6KA66mlry
— Robert Gilbey (@RobGilbey) January 22, 2022
Rob goes into great detail on his Twitter post, you can find that here.
Spokesperson on defence for her party, TD Sorca Clarke, said that successive Irish governments have failed to invest in an “over-stretched” Irish Defence Forces.
“I am deeply concerned that Russia is to conduct a missile test off the coast of Co Cork in the first week of February. Our own Defence Forces staffing levels have been impacted by reducing numbers over the last number of years and it is an area of concern repeatedly highlighted by representative bodies.”
Ms Clarke was also quoted as saying that that a lack of primary radar “is the reason other state entities have been probing our airspace for years with high-altitude bombers and escorts. These foreign aircraft can see us but we cannot see them.”
Ireland should ‘end reliance on UK’ for air defence say Irish commentators
Irish experts previously advised that Irish defence was now approaching a “critical decision point” in respect of its long-term direction.
Ireland must invest in its air, sea and cybersecurity to fend off threats from hostile states, such as Russia, a number of military officers and academics had said.
Writing in the Irish Defence Forces ‘Defence Review 2020‘, Commandant Derek McGourty said:
“There have been further incursions by Russian military aircraft into Irish airspace and reports of increasing Russian submarine activity in the North Atlantic and Irish Sea, which have added to growing concerns about Ireland’s inability to protect its critical national infrastructure including transatlantic fibre-optic cables that lie in Irish coastal waters. The Irish Naval service has no anti-submarine capability and its ability to deter or even detect such maritime intelligence gathering is exceptionally limited. Neither has Ireland got the radar, air defence, and air interdiction capability necessary to deter and monitor Russian or other aircraft entering Irish airspace without permission and instead relies on the United Kingdom’s Royal Air Force to carry out this task on its behalf.”
Why do British jets ‘protect’ Irish airspace?
Ireland lacks aircraft that can climb high enough or go fast enough to intercept Russian aircraft.
As a result, Ireland and the UK have an agreement to allow British combat aircraft to overfly the Republic.
The UK isn’t simply protecting Irish airspace as such, the agreement is mutually beneficial but more about that later.
Over the last decade Russian bombers have flown a series of provocative missions close to Ireland’s northern and western coasts – on occasion skirting extremely close to Irish airspace. A particularly noteworthy incident occurred in 2015, two Tu-95 bombers flew with their transponders turned off, just 40km off the coast.
According to local media, they criss-crossed into major civilian airline traffic lanes and the IAA was forced to divert commercial jets in mid-air or else prevent them from taking off to avoid potential collisions.
You can read more about this by clicking here or on the link above.
Not looking good 🙄
What gets me is this forum being surprised ! Putin wants the Ukraine back in line and were going to allow that but in a innocuous manner saving the Ukraine from an invasion but also allowing them to “democratically” vote in Putin’s man .
Really. Is this just speculation?
Everything is speculation… Until something happens… Then the wise ones say, “I told you so…”
It will only take a spark to turn this into a full blown military conflict where Russ the re can be no winners
:Literally one careless cigarette in a fuel dump or improperly handled munition in an ammo dump.
Hi Andrew,
This is really piling the pressure on politically if nothing else. The Russians would be hard pressed militarily if anything went wrong, but no one wants a shooting war between Russia and NATO – at least not on this side of the lines…
The peace dividend is starting to look seriously overspent now.
Cheers CR
Agreed and the meagre size of our forces could soon be laid bare bef6 WW1 the British armed forces were at the lowest numbers since the Boer war!! Did I just hear an echo?
I’d suggest the peace dividend is bankrupt and we need to ring fence a 3% budget with the CASD taken out and paid for by the Govt. Centrally.
But it may not be for the reasons you might think. See my post at the end.
What’s the problem? I suspect our armed forces are rubbing their hands at the intel. If we go roaming around Russia, we can hardly complain when they come over our side. It will be interesting to compare the performance of their tugs! 😉
This is deliberately provocative. Putin is becoming more and more unstable as his popularity in Russia decreases….
Indeed he wants both personal legacy and wants to expand Russian influence, hegemony and power as far as possible and Europe is his only real avenue to try to keep Russia relevant as China takes over the role of global Superpower. Russia will become increasing reliant on that relationship and needs to buy as much relevance as possible to keep themselves important in that relationship and improve their grip on their coat tails. With a historically troubled border with that Country you can see their Paranoia developing. Really worrying us are we now going to get more Putins when he… Read more »
The issues do not stop there. China wants most of Russia back as it sees it as its territory… It is already populating the far east of Russia with its own people and shipping the farm products they produce back to China… So Russia needs to be careful who it trusts and empowers.
we possibly should’ve heeded that advice ourselves regarding china….
Yes it’s the big mistake I think Russia is making, just like the west it’s long term geopolitical/strategic threat comes from China. But even more so than the west as we are looking at economic dominance from China and loss of independence that way, Russia has a real risk of significant loss of territory and conquest.
Really doesn’t look good on any front does it, Orwell’s 1984 sure looks like a real template for the future as things stand. I was foretelling the fact that the Wests empowering of China by wanting cheap products would end up being our own downfall since at least the early years of this century but as we know Govts are all about short termism and immediate legacy which equally reflected in the ludicrous road to reliance on Russia for our energy needs. The long term parroting that such efforts will bring those Countries into the Western global way of doing… Read more »
Russia has a nuclear deterrent, so considerable means of resisting the PRC.
Problem is, if the West forces Russia into financial meltdown.
Then Russia would be bailed out by China in return for what?
That is a good observation.
A real blow up over the Ukraine could be the touchligh t to other issues what’s to say that the North Korea wouldn’t taken the ópportunity to hit the south or China to invade tiawan or even Pakistan and India going at it over the Kashmir or the Arabs going on Israel bad days Indeed and Britain had better be careful where it may get pulled
To be honest I think we will always have a strong man authority figure governing Russia, nations tend to follow a character of government and its very difficult to remove that “Culture” of governance as it’s based around the assumptions of both the ruled and rulers. You have to remember the Western European version of freedom for the individual and rule of law is something that’s taken probably 800 years to mature, so our assumption of the ruler always having a level of accountability is not a universal idea at all and has taken well over a 1000 generations and… Read more »
Yep I think the reason that Kerensky and at least at the start Yeltsin are the only democratic leaders Russia has ever had is no coincidence.
The American constitution is a rip off of the English magna carta(get out the history books(!!
Hi Andy, it’s not so much a rip off as a continuation of the system where by even the ruler is bound by law and basis rights are applied to individuals and property. This is one of my favourite little summaries from the library of Congress “magna carter muse and mentor“ “Magna Carta exercised a strong influence both on the United States Constitution and on the constitutions of the various states. However, its influence was shaped by what eighteenth-century Americans believed Magna Carta to signify. Magna Carta was widely held to be the people’s reassertion of rights against an oppressive… Read more »
The American Revolution was an upgraded version of the 1688 constitution of the Glorious Revolution that deposed James ll. The Founding Father’s of USA gave no credit to Great Britain’s struggles to curb the power of the King and fought several civil wars to achieve that. Simon de Montfort’s, The English Civil War and the Glorious Revolution and Brexit! Sorry joking there.
well done, ten housepoints to you.
And poor old Farmer George was labelled a Tyrant by the tea drinking ex pats
even the boston tea was just a pub fight.
Couldn’t do that in today’s Woke culture White privilege men dressing up as I xxxxx would be cultral misappropriation of the Indigenous peoples of the Colonies Andy
NATO inertia shows the Russians that the west will not be quick to respond to this kind of issue in fact once the posturing French e.t.c make their minds up and the inward looking U.Swhi historically aren’t too keen on getting involved with European fighting.
It is very interesting, considering that Ireland has suffered so much under the boot of conquest from an aggressive neighbour and the bloody nature ( civil war) of the inception of the modern Irish state. I always therefore find is very surprising that it has so little interest in defending its independence. This is even more at odds with the Irish National character which has aways been very much one that was willing to fight. The only thing I can think of is some form of national trauma related the civil war and occupation leading to a general mistrust of… Read more »
“Willing to fight ” ..yep many Irish pubs on a Friday night stand testament to that particular statement. Maybe they should pay their forces with Whiskey – that would make others think twice… 🙂
The Irish people have shown time and again that when push comes to shove they are more than capable of rallying to the flag and even the Jack when it’s necessary.
Faugh a ballagh!
Partly but their history has been so one dimensional I think it’s difficult to look beyond it. Hell even the US was pretty much forced to do so and indeed even Britain did for hundreds of years before Spain and then France forced us to think beyond British shores and initiated the formation of Empire. Being so small and in the grand scheme of things powerless Ireland probably don’t feel they can gain anything by active participation when the location ensures others defending them anyway if needs be. Sadly not completely a certainty and goes both ways where every enemy… Read more »
Ah, no. It was Churchill that was the major force calling for invading and occupying the Ports (well him and the Unionists who called for a full invasion and Dev’s head), thankfully the rest of the Cabinet talked him out of it. Roosevelt was no friend of Ireland either but by the time the US entered the Ports weren’t a priority.
If you want a lesson as what many of the Irish were doing at the beginning of and many during WW2 I suggest you read some history.
What’s that meant to mean? And how is it relevant to the factual post I made? I’m well aware of what Irish people were doing throughout the period.
Mark…fair enough. I think I got your meaning as a criticism but I get it on reading again.
It’s not a criticism as such, though given Churchill was suggesting using up pretty much the last of the UKs reserves during the post Dunkirk invasion panic to seize the Treaty Ports, I don’t think it would have been the best plan, particularly as aside from him and Dev being oil and water, the working relationship between Dublin and London and the militaries were actually very good throughout the war. I was just correct the post that somehow had it being Churchill talking Roosevelt out of military action against Ireland, as far as I’m aware there was never any suggestion… Read more »
BORING change the subject
Enough of the Irish they’re as relevant as Belgium
This whole article is about an exercise off the Irish Coast, why are you even looking at it if you don’t care?
Mark, I think ‘Care in the Community’, has failed Andy!
From what I remember, Andy had a big breakdown à few years ago.
Does Belgium have A Father Ted ?
or moone boy?
Girls Drink, Arse Feck can’t beat Father Jack hackit of Craggy Island Andy
Yes… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Sullivan_(VC)
a paddy shot my brother i hate the oirish
Jadotville?
Connaught Rangers?
83rd County of Dublin?
County Down?
The Irish can fight, just ask the French at Waterloo.
It’s complicated, certainly the Civil War plays a part at the founding, but there’s also the relative poor economy until the 90’s which had Finance basically openly saying “every pound on defence isn’t going to the economy”. Add in the restrictions that the UK placed on the Free State at its founding, and the dominate threat being instability by Republicans and it combines to produce much of the culture issues we have around defence.
Yes that’s an interesting point on the economic factor, looking at Ireland today, I sort of forgot what it was like in the early/mid 20c. Defence stance is one of those areas I think Ireland needs to really think about moving forward, being an island stuck on the end of a continent has its geopolitical advantages from a defence point of view, but you do still need the basic tools like a functional 21c airforce, detection systems, green water navel force and cyber security. I don’t think there is any need to consider the expeditionary stuff that other nations have.… Read more »
Indeed, there was a recent article on TK Whitaker (one of the most important figures in Finance back in the mid 20c), basically saying Finance will always gamble on Peace and invest in economic areas instead, needless to say given he was saying this to the DF it didn’t go down well. As to your list, not a bad list but even with somehow jumping to 2% spending you are talking a decade to build up such a force, and nobody is going to get elected in Ireland suggesting such a spend, the highest was just over 1% when we… Read more »
Your seriously suggesting that the reason Ireland spends so little on defence is because of UK opposition ? Exactly what do you think the UK would do if Ireland increased it’s defence budget ?
If you read the post I was highlighting the issue in the 1970’s, when yes the UK opposed the pressure the other EEC members were pushing for increased defence spending by Ireland as it was seen as being overreach by the EEC, which then gave coverage for Dublin to not increase spending. Historically though it could be argued the UK was against Irish defence, hence why it wasn’t until post WW2 the Naval Service was created as the UK expressly ruled out the possibility of such a force in 1922. Nowadays of course not, but the culture in DOD and… Read more »
Your original comment implied the UK was opposed to increase in Irish defence spend for it’s own reasons not because it thought the EU was overreaching itself. Whatever it is no ones concern what Ireland does or does not spend on defence as it is not a member of any mutual defence organisation.
My original comment was that the UK place restrictions on the Free State in 1922, this is fact. And this has had an influence that still affects things today, why do you think the NS has long been the least resourced? Because its the youngest service as it alone was forbidden by the UK, even 100 years later that still affects the budget battles in the DOD.
Yes I agree I can’t see it happening, but I think at some point there needs to be some thought around this ( I think it will depend on the future European security picture).
Your right about Dev for all he did for Ireland during the Anglo-Irish war and rising, he became a bit of a drag on the development of Ireland as a modern European state from the late 30s onward.
There’s plenty of thought around it, the DF has been putting forward suggestions and plans for decades, multiple studies have been done, all of it runs straight into a stone wall of Finance and the DOD, just wait until the Commission might get its report out, anything “expensive” is likely to be tossed in a drawer.
Dev really was a drag from the Civil War onwards tbh, with a hell of a lot of wasted time and effort.
Ireland doesn’t need an expeditionary force, correct, but look at the state of all branches of it’s armed forces.
The only somewhat bright part are some specialist land troops. That’s it. The rest is beyond a joke.
What would be a good idea? Well, some OPVs like the River class, a few light frigates like the type 32, some and Tyhoons should be manageable. The mentioned radar of course, and coastal defenses . Not sure about other land assets.
Our OPVs are more than capable of handling current areas that a River class would do, there’s no need for more OPVs. T32s and Typhoons forget about them, not going to happen, and I’m not sure why you are suggesting “coastal defences” at all.
The 4 x Samuel Beckett OPV’s are fine compared to the B2 Rivers. Only thing they could benefit from if they were being done again given the topic at hand would be wildcat scale rotary capability / hangers. Even in general OPV role the ability to put out a boarding party by helo rather than RIB would surely be a huge benefit .
Mark, are the 2 x c-295s due next year simply fitted out for surface maritime surveillance or will they have any weapons fit out or below surface surveillance capability?.
Pete
Oh, don’t go down the helicopters on ships debacle, that’s a 40 year old 4 sided shitshow between the NS, AC, Army and the department.They can be upgraded from their current spec for UAV operations, and possibly the Containerised Towed Arrays.
The 295’s are fitted with the basic package unfortunately, the only unique part about them is they are being used as a test bed for a Lidar system from a recent press release.
Cheers Mark.
Now, UAV and containerised towed arrays would be a really cost effective way to plug the ASW gap. Ireland does not really need a great deal of capability, but it needs some credibility in monitoring submarine activity around transatlantic cables as well as its EEZ and airspace.
I’m under the understanding that the Sam Beckett OPVs are pretty much to civvy standards with a 76mm plonked on the front. It’s not “hardened”and built as an actual warship and to the standard ofthe B2s. TheB2s are much more than a small gun, it’s more to do with capabilites such as C&C, system redundancy etc etc. But as I’m not a navy man I will leave GB and the other salty sea dogs to put me straight if I’m incorrect. Cheers.
Why are we talking about Ireland?they depend on the U.k for their defence.
Yes but I think they need to start thinking about how they defend their nation in the 20c you can’t as a modern state just depend on someone else to do the whole thing for you.
If Russia was to invade Ireland I’m sure they would be welcomed as fellow drinkers and dancers with open arms.
I’m struggling the the notion of Ireland being defenceless since they evangelised half of Europe, dug the Manchester ship canal and ran the Chicago police service for decades. They might even yet inspire Australia to throw off the yoke of empire and become a republic. Have you ever played hurling…?🙂
Quite frankly the casualty rate from the pissed drive home after the pubs close would decimate any invading army….as for anyone keeping a lid on Moyross, I’m sure Dublin would hand that one over in a heart beat.
🙄
I’m blaming the painkillers 🤪🤪
Remember what they say to the new recruits in the Foreign Legion….
Pain is weakness coming out of the system 😂
Good Morning Jonathan. I compare Ireland to New Zealand-both have a great history of proud fighting men but NZ, along with the ROI have not a single combat aircraft between them. The simple truth is that they are happy to rely on the defence freebies supplied by Australia and the UK. The solution for Ireland is to abandon neutrality and join NATO. BTW my family are Brits from the North who have been there as long as the first European settlers arrived in North America. The history of Ireland is sad and the pain lingers but conquest by aggressors is… Read more »
Ireland should retain its neutrality, which follows naturally from its deep spiritual heritage and culture. Newgrange is older than Stonehenge and the Pyramids and the contribution of Ireland to the Christianisation of the western world is unparalleled. We owe them a debt of civilisation and should protect them. Just my view.
I do agree on the NATO option Geoff, I think it’s a win win and for me that’s the type of expansion NATO needs to be looking at to really strength itself by bringing in those neutral western/Northern Europe nations. from my side I have an unusual family history of a Scottish Protestant who married an Irish catholic From Bantry (when that sort of thing could get you shot), London East-end and welsh miner. I have an interesting set of grandparents and it’s one of the things that has driven my love of understanding the geopolitics of the British isles,… Read more »
Great stuff Jonathan! I am a London born Ulster Presbyterian married to my lovely lass, of an Irish Catholic father and Jewish mother! Could have got shot indeed or at least 😂😂tarred and feathered 😂
Cheers for now
It’s also a money thing.
It’s always a money thing in the end.
This ia also an area popular with lurking British, American and French SSBNs. Possibly not a coincidence.
And also along the transatlantic cable routes. So test firings a ruse to hack our cables, they are still relatively shallow water at this position.
They’d only be doing what the American’s have already done for many years… just saying like.
Oh, that’s all right then, crack on Putin.
There is a difference between Russian autocracy and American democracy when it comes to values, even if it seems unfashionable to point this out these days.
Oi! Calm down, calm down.
They were spying on the major western industrials and sharing theur take with the big American companies… I think their mistake was hacking Merkel.
As do the French with “Frenchelon”
I think all nations spy on each other, although UKUSA ( 5 eyes ) are not meant to spy on each other. But the European are fair game.
The iffy thing is Menwith contributing to that from our shores.
Somewhere else closed and gone if your party get in David? With all of its many other non industrial spying related activities that contribute directly to ours, the US, and NATO’s defence? GCHQ staff are there too.
TRUMP would have been lobbing nukes around by now🤓
According to the World Bank Ireland’s current defence spending is running at <0.3% of GDP. The idea that it should spend more is reasonable, given the growing threat. The idea that it should waste that money to bring in-house a facility it “outsources” to the UK is not, unless it has ceased to trust the UK or it feels the UK is doing a bad job.
Better it targets increased expenditure where it will do some good. I’d get radar and coastal missile systems.
We could give them our tranche one Typhoons, I have they cost more to dismantle and scrap than they are to build.
Off all the things needed, T1’s really aren’t first on the list, even if the UK gave them to us.
Sunday to get in cheek.
Ireland should have the ability to patrol its own airspace without relying on the UK to do it for them. I doubt the UK does it free of charge, at least I hope it doesn’t considering how tight its own budget is. 12 Gripen of F16s would be plenty to ensure Russian bears don’t crash over Ireland.
It was the UK that signed up to the deal, if they aren’t getting paid for it (and I don’t think so, but the deal has never been published) then it”s arguably more the fault of the MOD and FCO than Ireland’s DFA and DOD.
As to patrolling Irish airspace, if tomorrow morning Martin came out with such a suggestion and it got through the Daíl, you are still talking in excess of 10 years at best. There are no quick fixes and a ton of other areas that need spending first.
A couple of extra MP C-295s with some strike capability and a couple of extra stretch version Sumual Becket OPVs with hanger and wildcat scale rotary added would be where i would put any extra money. BuiId and enhance on what is already in place and planned and what would be appropriate for the geography and threat.
A much more realistic idea tbh, the MRV if it’s whats rumoured will have the capacity for 4 medium helicopters, but getting the AC to play in the water is an issue.
Might need the Canberra again
Pete I agree, the problem is they a nice to have tickets. At least we now have operational P8s. Protector will eventually I believe augment the Kipper fleet if that is what they are still known as. There has been increased activity around our shores by the Russians for years now and air activity. We need to up our game and invest more, I believe we are slowly getting there but its not enough. I know the French are just as concerned as are the Netherlands.
Hey Mark. My suggestions were to the other Mark as a capability suggestion for Ireland who currently only have 4 x OPV without helos and only 2 x c295 MPA with only basic surface search capability. RAF P8 fleet is indeed a welcome step in right direction. My immediate wish list force multipliers for RN would be:
– Interim AshM/land attack
– Wildcat dipping sonar
– Upgun 2 x River B2 with either 40/57mm and or brimstone (use them for gulf escorts freeing up a frigate)
But a wish list it will remain I suspect.
P
Like the list Pete, and what about even the ol’ River B1’s getting any spare 30mm?
if they upgraded all the B2 then that would be a possibility but I would think the 1 or 2 B2 that could be used in gulf should have both the bigger gun and keep the 30mm given the swarm nature of the threat and you definitely need some redundancy. Too many single point of failure risks otherwise
Investing more is pointless if it takes 4 years to get what you’re buying
We might need to have them ourselves, never mind giving them freebies. We gave the American s 72 harriers for next to nothing when the deal should have been that the U.k Received the same amount of aircraft from them
give?!!! we can’t afford OUR new stuff why give away what we do have? maybe an arms for souds trade agreement
The tranche 1s cannot be upgraded.
or so we are told and are being withdrawn anyway, it was a throw away comment anyway.
It gets Britain’s protection for free
Nice…within easy range of Rivet Joint and only a short hop out from Guz for a CT equipped FF/DD. Lots of take on the cards for whoever gets to shadow them along with the ubiquitous Astute doing passive sonar take.
Beats having to go around the corner to do this when high seas firings are planned in by the Russian Navy out of Murmansk.
Exactly my thoughts.
Yes it’s going to be handy intelligent gathering, I wonder if the RN/RAF and the rest of NATO will go out of their way to show the Russian ships how many times dead they would have been tying to operate in that area.
It may be an opportunity to provide a very good lesson indeed. It is after all not the time to be shy about what you can and will do if pushed.
Can we not just kill them for real? It’d be more fun and poke the best in both eyes, up the ass and give his nuts the thorough kicking they need. Now, please get back in your cave.
Too extreme?
Probably a bit to on the shall we say……. “provocative” side for NATO.😂
But maybe we could get someone ( 007 I would suggest) to poke Putin in both eyes and kick him in the Nuts a few times as a warning .
How much better it would be if you could just fuck up the leaders instead of the poor solders and civilians getting it.
Can’t find the Edit… ‘poke the beast…’
“Astute doing passive sonar take.” If they were really showing off they would be doing an ‘underwater look’. 😉 Say what you like about Putin, he’s not shy with his ‘armed diplomacy’, don’t blame him, it tends to work and Biden has already blinked first. The Germans have embarrassed themselves with their limited aid and their admiral’s comments. That leaves…. um….. ‘us’ I guess. Yup Putin will be soiling himself. 😂 He knows how to play us, if he’s sending a ‘fleet’ our way we can back slap ourselves that we’ve done our bit watching/deterring them while he cracks on… Read more »
Wouldn’t be surprised if something else appeared in the Moray Firth or North Sea at the same time or just after the Irish gig started. Really stretch things. Well at least the P8 fleet is now all on the right side of the Atlantic.
It’s a little bit iffy nowadays. The taking of prop photos via the periscope, whilst good for the CO are a bit of a waste of time and V dodgy on a safety standpoint. It still happens… A UK boat tried it on a ship I was on… The fact that we had S2170 out was a complication they hadn’t forseen.. S2170 stopped working in the middle of the night as it got cut up(sounds familiar! ). The following morning we covered it to find it cut up, leaking oil from the array and black scuff marks on it. We… Read more »
Don’t know if its still the case but underwater looks were something we used to do on workup (maybe Perishers ???) but yeah, I wouldn’t fancy doing it for real with a unit that wasn’t in on the game.
Not a problem. Putin is handing us Intel on a plate. We can have a good look at what the Russian Navy have in the way of new equipment and tech. He might even wave his new hypersonic missile at us. The RN and US will be all over this like a rash.
Would it not make sense to sell these to Ireland which will still offer the UK some additional defence along its western borders? I’ve covered out lack of anti-ship capabilities enough recently, NSM/JSM for the UK & Eire if we sell the Tranche 1’s on to them that is. When can we expect to see joint wargames taking place off the Irish coast with Russia and China? they are already doing this in the North Atlantic. https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/uk-to-retire-tranche-1-typhoons-with-more-than-half-of-airframe-hours-remaining#:~:text=08%20September%202021-,UK%20to%20retire%20Tranche%201%20Typhoons%20with,half%20of%20airframe%20hours%20remaining&text=The%20UK's%20recently%20revealed%20plan,government%20said%20on%207%20September. Putin launches construction of new nuclear subs and warships https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2021/08/23/putin-launches-construction-of-new-nuclear-subs-and-warships/ Many of these ships are smaller in size and armament than their NATO… Read more »
In reality whatever their edge in particular weapons Russian surface ships would not survive long in the Atlantic. Good for sending messages though that weakens resolve of potential opponents I guess and no doubt puts pressure on small countries like Ireland making them feel they can’t be protected. In the past mind that has backfired on Russia pushing them into NATO which is how we got into the present stand off in the first place.
What long-range anti-ship missiles do we currently have to meet these threats if required? What long-range air defence missiles do we currently have also?
Or am I missing something? It’s another cold war hence the reason Russia is rebuilding and modernising its Navy as it feels threatened once again by the west.
Of all the things needed T1 Typhoons really aren’t anything close to top of the list. And its just Ireland, Eire isn’t the name of the country.
“Éire is Irish for “Ireland“, the name of an island and a sovereign state occupying most of the island, officially named Ireland in English, and often referred to as the “Republic of Ireland” and is distinct from Northern Ireland which comprises 6 of the 9 counties of the Ulster province to the north of the island.”
And Typhoons would be a very good place to start saving our Typhoon hours flying out to protect them from growing Russian incursions.
Perhaps you don’t understand, Eire and Éire are two different words in the Irish language with different meanings, and unless you randomly call Germany Deutschland, I don’t see why you use a language you don’t know to refer to a nation when there is the English name.
And no Typhoons are not a very good place to start, the list of things the AC should have before 4.5 gen aircraft is fairly long, let alone the rest of the DF.
In your opinion, clearly, mine differs from yours. This might just be the wake-up call that’s required.
If I choose to use Eire I will, I do not require your permission to do so.
“Is it offensive to call Ireland Éire?
If they call the country Eire, they are absolutely correct. The constitution states that the name of the country is Eire, in the English language Ireland. The Republic of Ireland is a descriptive term.”
Nice picture by the way.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/ireland-considering-purchase-of-jet-fighters/
According to the Constitution of Ireland, the names of the Irish state are ‘Ireland’ (in English) and ‘Éire’ (in Irish). … Until the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, British government and media declined to use the name ‘Ireland’, preferring ‘Eire’ (without accent) until 1949 and ‘Republic of Ireland’ thereafter.
Is it offensive to call Ireland Éire?
If they call the country Eire, they are absolutely correct. The constitution states that the name of the country is Eire, in the English language Ireland. The Republic of Ireland is a descriptive term.
I love the picture.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/ireland-considering-purchase-of-jet-fighters/
What does it say on the tail?
Nonsense on the internet? Have you ever seen AC markings that drop the fada?
No they are not “absolutely correct” to use Eire. It was wrong then and it’s wrong now. And then and now it’s deliberate.
Eire and Éire are two different words. You want to go out of your way to use an Irish word in an English forum, fine. But use the right one (it’s not that hard to get the fada).What you are doing is no different than dropping the Umlaut in German.
Just use English as you are an English speaker, as is the person who randomly created the image.
“You want to go out of your way to use an Irish word in an English forum”
You had better use fuck instead of feck, in that case, not that that troubles anyone else it seems including me.
More important things to consider on UKDJ, or should it be SDJ as the author is Scottish and based in Scotland?
The Irish can’t afford Typhoon T1’s. Or the operating costs, infrastructure, weapons, aircrew/ground crew traning, simulators, maintenance contracts, depth maintenance the list goes on….
More accurate to say by the time all needed supports were built up the Typhoon would be well middle aged airframes. It’s not that the state can’t afford a higher defence budget (we spent more when we were much poorer in the Troubles), it’s just that even if spending increased there’s far more that needs to be done than just getting the airframes.
I agree Mark. And retiring our T1’s is funding some very important upgrades to Typhoon T2/3. AESA radar 2 , Striker 2 digital helmet mounted display, wide area cockpit display, SPEAR family of weapons, and much more. 👍
And I posted last year, why not bring their pilots on and train them in fast air as well as the ground crews and ops staff – they shoulder the PID budget, we get frames in the air?
Are you under the impression that there’s a glut of AC pilots just waiting to get qualified for Typhoon’s? You are talking about a service with less than 1K people sustain plenty of ops right now.
If tomorrow it was announced it would be 5-10 years to get the people available.
Live in hope, little acorns, good things come in little packages 🙂
The Republic of Ireland can afford an upgraded military and all of the support costs that go with it. The problem is the political will and the Irish people need to change their world view on defense. Neutrality does not protect anyone especially when they do not have the military to defend that neutrality.
Public will more than political will, Irish politicians are fairly good at getting the public mood and jumping on it, spending a billion for circa 18 aircraft for bear patrol wins the square route of Jack votes, and most likely costs them.
This is not occurring in Irish territorial waters, but rather in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). However by moving a few miles to the west the firings could take place outside the EEZ of any EU state. So the big question is why there, what message is Russia trying to send?
We big boys with big toys
Yeah, i think that sums it up
Absolute novice when it comes to Defence but, when I heard about it, I just assumed the firing exercise was a handy excuse to bring various types of long range electronic/jamming systems closer, and within line of sight, of England to impede potential UK responses if Ukraine invasion happens. Anyone more knowledgeable wish to comment on (or rebut) this theory?
There is also British EEZ waters to the South of Irish EEZ waters.
Interesting that the politician quoted is Sinn Fein.
Not really, other politicians have also spoken about the issue.The Shinners are just calling for increased spending now that it’s not likely any of their lads will be picked up importing arms.
The UK ASCS could do with strengthening in that direction.
And RAF St Mawgan should be reopened for regular dets.
Interestingly, and maybe irrelevant, but that area is also slap bang on the undersea cable routes from Cornwall across the pond which carry financial and military/intelligence traffic as well as our internet backbone.
Exactly what I was just about to comment, the cables! I beleive every direct UK-USA cable runs through there or just below.
It’s also the area where the Irish Navy found one of their spy ships a while back, and where Bears have been operating.
Hi Daniele,
Not to mention the fact that the live fire exercises are scheduled to take place on the fringes of the Western Approaches and right under the transatlantic air corridors.
This is a timely reminder of what a Naval Blockade might look like.
As clever as it is dangerous.
Cheers CR
Yes, good point CR.
I wonder how many ships will take part, and how this information surfaced?
In war, i expect they’d be sunk crossing the GIUK Gap, so I’m more worried by submarines and missiles than their surface vessels.
Hi Daniele,
If the Russian’s wanted to cut the SLOC’s they would preposition surface vessels before the shooting started and an exercise would be the perfect cover. I’m sure you remember the Graf Spee and the other raiders the Kriegsmarine deployed prior to WW2.
I am NOT saying this is the plan, just that is definately highlighting the art of possible. Susequently, their subs are definately the main threat.
Cheers CR
I still don’t understand why the MoD refuse to purchase long range missile defence systems. Many countries do. In the case of a missile attack by Russia, we have neither the means to stop their missiles nor even means to retaliate. Our expensive carriers and ships will be sunk or damaged, their repair facilities destroyed, airbases will be vulnerable as will London and any other large city. What am I missing or misunderstanding?
I believe it is simply because post Cold War the MoD DI Staffs that monitor the threat always considered it low and thus low priority to counter.
And we have been set up as expeditionary forces through much of that time.
I always agreed with that assessment. Now, with state on state confrontation back, I’m no so sure.
Also, if necessary, what goes to pay for it?
I do agree though, with the obvious emphasis Russia put into their offensive missile systems, why we don’t look at a defensive SAM force.
Retaliate? Strom Shadow? TLAM?
I considered both, but Storm Shadow is air launched only and only carried by typhoon. With russian S-400s and S-300s they will be difficult to deploy.
Although TLAM could be used our stock is low – perhaps in the region of 150-200.
We’ve obviously decided we want to mess with Russia in Ukraine, but we definitely need missile defence before doing so. Azerbaijan recently purchased 2 Arrow 3 batteries for ABM, perhaps we could do with looking at the same.
Typhoons would have no problems launching Storm Shadow in a pervasive S300/400 environment. They simply would not launch within their engagement windows. Therefore, they’d probably do the approach to release point at low level, thus using the Earth’s curvature and any topography available to shield them from the search and tracking radars.
For some reason I thought Storm Shadow’s range was about 200km, I have learnt it is in fact far more for the non-export version.
I believe our EW, Cyber capabilities are far greater than known. For obvious reasons.
Incoming missiles can be spoofed, SAM batteries can be jammed or turned off entirely.
Despite all that, would I want a purchase of SAM for UK centric defence, yes. And also a return of bunker use, hidden assets, and more resources put into dispersal.
One must be prepared. Many bunkers remain on MoD estate but we’re abandoned for surface buildings.
TLAM? I thought it were even lower. 60 plus. But we won’t fight alone.
I do hope you’re right about the cyber and EW capabilities.
Agreed about the SAMs and use of bunkers; caution is always to be preferred in such an environment,
About TLAM, as far as I understand, we have purchased 214 (65 Block III, 20 more Block III to replenish stocks after Kosovo War, then 65 and 64 Block IV), and use up around 20-30.
Yes, and the Left will be blaming the Gov. for not getting imports of sugar and bananas, lemons. And also chanting, ‘Don’t bomb them’!
I won’t. I want the PLP to increase spend up to 3% with the CASD ringfenced off without of that budget.
People may support Labour, but, it does not mean we would not fight to preserve our way of life and this country.
Your reference to bananas might make you wish to re-think that post before it gets called out.
But if you look at the Labour Party membership, not the Parliamentary Labour Party, they recently rejected supporting AUKUS.
I would also expect the intelligence alliance we have with the US to go to the wall the moment they get in too.
I worry the grass roots trade unionist types in that membership are too far left to support any defence beyond the basics.
Aye… you can choose your friends but not your family; and now we have Raynor, who even with mask at PMQs look like she is chewing a wasp whilst giving Sir K the look of desth spotted probably doing the dirty with a fellow MP.
Trust her to gift an own goal.
Sorry David, I cannot stand her.
Daniele, there’s a queue, and you’re behind me 😉
😁 👍
Angela Raynor, an angry women who would prefer people to live in shit than be allowed to make an effort at progression for themselves and their family. A typical chip on her shoulder lefty who typically for the like, has trouble understanding economics and politics.
She’s looks and sounds like an old brass who should’ve given up the game 30 years ago.
Cor, you’re fuzzy! RAF?
Some of us are not so bad Airborne.
Most are sensible Dave….just the Labour Party has a large number of Raynor types, who cannot bring themselves to either agree, support or work with Tories and Tory supporters on issues which are basically right and proper. All parties need to take a step back from party politics and actually work together for the good and benefit of the UK. The only reason Labour have risen in the polls isn’t because they are relevant or a progressive party, it’s because at the moment the Tories are so friggin bad!
Bravo. There is nothing I see in the Labour party that would make me vote for them. They seem to have a frightening lack of understanding of Britain’s rightful place in the world and geopolitics in general.
Totally agree mate 👍
An Elint goldmine should they go ahead with that, but potentially something that may impact CASD patrol. The UK, US and France will no doubt ring the area with SSN, MPA and other assets.
Seen a Track of a P8 out that area today already.
Very much doubt it would impact CASD, the area is very close to, if not still on the continental shelf. Our SSBNs don’t operate on the shelf, only transit it to reach the deeper waters of the NA.
London to Moscow approx 1800 nm, Trident D5 range around 7000 miles, lots of deep water to play in.
Look up a Robert Gilbey on twitter,he has an interesting view on why this particular area might be important.
Cheers Paul, have had a look, some interesting points he makes personally I think it’s more to do with the undersea cables then anything else SM related, as SMs rarely operate at depths greater then 250 m even though they can, bombers even less as it doesn’t serve any great purpose other then if it’s a fast deep transit, or in a shooting match you are evening a weapon.
Evading a weapon!!! Predictive text for you.
I would love if this along with other issues sparked the Commission into actually putting forward a credible level of capabilities within the DF going forward, however I also know that any such suggestion will be killed at birth by DOD and Finance.
Why would the DoD kill it?
Because they see their job as preventing spending on the DF, that’s been their position since 1922, Them and Finance.
At the very least Ireland needs some decent long range radar cover.
The list of “at very least” projects is long enough, and yes Radar Coverage has been on that for the last few years, but with the hangover from the Crash leaving a 10+ year backlog to planned Capital Spending for the DF along with the underlying problems in manpower, it’s not likely to happen anytime soon.
Hmmm. So Putin is planning a Ukraine invasion early Feb. And the Russian navy is going to keep NATO surveillance assets busy in the Atlantic with a diversion. Interesting.
It’s important to listen to Sinn Fein these days because they’ll be running Ireland after the next election. IRA/PIRA porn has been all over Irish media these last few years. They’re huge cheerleaders for Hezbollah and Iran so when they get in it’ll be very interesting to see which way there defence policy goes. But I think we can safely rule out Typhoons !
Given our election system even if they get in, they will have to do so in coalition most likely, so who knows. And in reality unless they replace all of the DOD and Finance nothing will change anyway.
Yep it’s inconceivable any party could govern alone. But it’s also inconceivable they won’t be the dominant party in Govt after the next election. On foreign and Defence policy they’re much closer to the Russia-Iran-China world view than the western. How far and how fast they’d follow through on that would depend on Irish public opinion. Being in Govt might mean them toning down their views but your guess would be much better than mine.
They really aren’t closer to them, just play more to the Irish Left (which is where they position themselves in the Republic) default anti-US/UK position. SF has shown more than once that they are “flexible” in what their positions are when it comes to winning votes.
Yep they want power and that means playing politics. If they’re smart they’ll take it slow to begin with but I think there final destination is clear.
Of course they are Mark, they just want power and will hitch to any passing wagon that will get them there…..
Considering our Air defence coverage of the Republic, they should most definitely get a bill, I’m not seeing them give an ‘inch’ regarding Brexit, we are not in the EU, they aren’t in NATO, so it’s a simple business transaction.
They don’t want to pay, then get another EU member to carry out air policing, or get their own capability….
The UK can always present a bill, so far it hasn’t, maybe take it up with your MP? As to Brexit, Irish national interests are different to the UK’s now, an every nation has the right to pursue diplomatic means to support their interests.
Yep absolutely, that’s why costs incurred need to be paid, can’t really see why the British tax payer should subsidise Irish tax payers….
Like I said, we aren’t in the EU and they aren’t in NATO, so just cover the costs incurred, quite reasonable I think.
After all, my neighbour would get pissed off with me if I kept asking him to pay to fill up Land Rover!
Well maybe you should think about who to complain to? The U.K. makes plenty of arrangements with nations, if there is no costs to be billed should you complain about Ireland or the MOD and FCO who were on the other side of the negotiating table and seemingly didn’t put in any cost billing structure when they were negotiating?
I think people are missing the point that it is in the UK’s overwhelming interest to protect airspace all around the these islands. It isn’t like we are providing a service out of the goodness of our hearts now is it. For me if Ireland wanted to spend more on defence then ASW corvettes and helos would be at the top of the shopping list, not fast jets.
Exactly.
Time to delpoy the kite with the gopro.
Maybe this will cause MoD / UK Gov to look again at the provision of SAM coverage for the UK?
We have the technology to do it with the T45 radars and missile systems.
Putin seems to be encouraging countries to join NATO – the reverse of his stated objective. There is nowt as strange as folk.
Indeed Mark. Mentioned that on another thread to a Russian troll along with encouraging others to either hang on to or develop their own nukes. I can’t however see Ireland joining NATO, but what will be interesting is if the French get their way re establishing a robust European Union defence force…will ‘Neutral’ parties like Ireland be compelled to contribute an equal share / support the EU in those efforts,
Curious timing. If Russia was planning a Ukraine invasion for early February & this is a depoyment to distract or act in concert, it leaves little time for solid(frozen) ground in Ukraine before the spring mud season starts. Unless they’re banking on quick gains followed by the mud slowing Western responses.
Has Russia conducted live fire exercises anywhere in this region before?
Clearly time we revised our ASW warship requirement up from a pathetic 8 ships. The sub fleet needs increasing too. Some AIP conventionals would be a cheaper option.
No, they’ve never had live fire exercises in the Irish EEZ.
Aip doesnt have the range or endurance needed. Nuclear SSNs are the only way to go. AIP subs if they can be delivered and in service within 2 or 3 years then yes useful stop gap measure freeing up the SSN fleet for operational deployments. AIP subs could do useful work . Thresher sub course. Hostile sub / ASW training. Insertion of special forces (as AIP subs tend to be approx 50% less tonnage/ size than a SSN). The UK needs to order 5 more astute (batch 2 enhanced design) and expand production capacity either at Barrow or a second… Read more »
Aip would be useless against his blue water nuclear force
Dont worry. Thanks to Johnson’s savage defence cuts (masquerading as a SDSR) we will only be paying off two frigates this year. I expect a couple of our new OPVs will deter the Russians from getting too close to Cork
NATO obviously will need to turn out in immense strength to monitor and watch these exercises. Id put a fully armed QE battle group and as many subs as needed onto them. These “exercises” are all a ruse. Putin uses exercises to try to hide military deployments for combat missions. Do we believe the amphibious fleet heading to the nlack sea are going for exercises or that the fast jets, armoured units, air defence missiles deployed to Belarus are on exercise? If Russia invades the Ukraine Russia should be told that NATO of which Ireland is not a member by… Read more »
Just imagine the outcry if the US decided to hold a live fire exercise off Taiwan!
This is not the only area for concern, according to the USNI website Russia also plans a naval exercise NE of Scotland and the Med. All these are taking place at about the same time period. To me this does look like a ‘keep NATO naval units occupied’ whilst doing their own thing in the Black Sea. It also seems to be a message on ‘how do you like hostile forces in your back yard’. With Russian naval units operating in both the Irish EEZ and possibly the UK EEZ the RN will be stretched to monitor both areas at… Read more »
I think the De Gaulle is going to be with the Truman in the Med, along with the Italian carrier. And yeah with the NOTAM being from the 3rd to the 8th as you say the dates do add up for risk to Ukraine.
Ireland is incapable, so this will be the UK’s problem.
No Ireland needs to get capable.
Which even if there was will within the Irish public/politicians would still take in excess of a decade so the UK is still going to be involved.
Macron would jump at the chance. Not being sarky but current govt in Ireland is already close to him and even Sinn Fein would be happy it wasn’t Brits.
France is our nearest EU neighbour and critical for the economy with the collapse of the Landbridge, and there’s no huge issues between Ireland and France. And I have no doubt France would love to sell equipment to us, not sure they would be happy to go beyond that.
That would be the killer move. Promise to buy Rafale. Particularly before the Pres election. Plus remind him of all the help you’ve given him over the fishing dispute. But whatever you do tell him how important he is !
Why would we go and buy Rafale? We literally have no pilots/ground crew/infrastructure for Fighters. It’s beyond cart before horse.
Then you’ll never be able to defend your airspace you’ll always be dependent on the kindness of others. Particularly when the current others and Ireland are moving farther and farther apart in almost every area. The UK and Qatar formed a joint Typhoon Sqd to train Qatari flight and ground crews on the aircraft. You and France could do the same. If Irish politicians can’t be arsed then they should explain that to the Irish people and TD’s.
The Irish public couldn’t give a feck, and the minute a price tag is put on it compared to what else could be done (ie winning votes).
The list of things that the DF needs before 4.5gen fighters is huge.
Yeah that sounds familiar from over here.Best I can offer you is that sooner or later in the air or under the sea somethings gonna happen that’ll wake people up. I know it’s not a great thing to look forward to…. Keep smiling stay safe.
Yeah, but again even if something changes and gets through the DOD, it’s a decade plus for the DF.
Shit your depressing me and i’m not Irish. Get yourself on youtube and watch some dancing guinea pigs always works for me.
What exactly is it that they require first?
More MPA’s, more helicopters that can operate in marine and/or hostile environments, a airlift capability ideally, and about another thousand or so people at least.
As Mark says. It has to be remembered that defence is not a big issue in Ireland, the defence minister is not considered a senior government post, and as Mark has alluded to there are various historical reasons for this. More helicopters MPA, and airlift are immediate priorities, it has also to be remembered that there is a huge staffing crisis in the Defence Forces, especially the Naval Service where ships are portbound due to the lack of essential engineering and technical personnel. Belated attempts are being made to address the poor pay rates and conditions, but they are still… Read more »
Lots of mentions of the threat to Ireland and cables, but I would highlight that the fact that these live fire exercises are scheduled to take place on the fringes the Western Approaches where ships to and from North America would normally transit. The Western Approaches are still the busiest sea lanes in the World with traffic from the all over the world using UK and Irish waters of responsibility (i.e not territorial waters, but exclusive economic zones and in some cases areas where we are responsible for ensuring safe passage). https://www.container-xchange.com/blog/shipping-routes/ In addition, there is the issue of air… Read more »
This is not a dig by any means but any Irish lad who fancies a career in the armed forces who is he going to pick? the IDF or he can join HM force’s with no bother at all. Obviously there are men and women who stay at home but the choice is there!
It’s just the DF, the IDF is the Israeli’s which due to the years of UN missions don’t have the greatest relationship with the DF. As to who joins up, it can go both ways, the DF has a growing number of Non-Irish including some Brits.
Righto Mark.
Come on guys, get your heads out of the weeds, stop thinking like NCOs and start analysing this from the perspective of a General. Don’t you think that the Russians have done a full analysis of the potential Intel and locational risks? Don’t you think that they could have located this exercise in a 100 other places and at many different times? Where is it? At a critical point west of NATO. Have you noticed the other major Russian exercise, with extra troops with all their hardware from the Far East, going down at a similar time in… Read more »
“massive operational groups” 😂🤣😂
You should be in the telly with your own comedy show 😏
Looks like I’m having to do your research for you. Here goes. Not only are we seeing the huge build up of Russian forces near Ukraine, we’re probably going to see the strongest Russian military presence in Europe since the early 1990s. According to what is believed to be reliable data, 33 trains with up to 50 flatbed or carriages in them have so far arrived in Belarus with more still loading in the Far East. Up to 160 more are expected, if the 200 total figure is accurate, that indicates that Russia is planning on sending nearly 10… Read more »
So it looks like an invasion then rather than some feint to ensure the Olympics aren’t spoilt – your ridiculous theory. Suckered!
You admit it is “what an invasion force would look like” yet you previously constantly insisted it wasn’t an invasion force and all this was manufactured by the USA trying to distract from its internal problems.
😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣
To be a threat it has to be believable and given some of the elements it is a threat to the west not the south.
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. I get your point that it might just be about concessions or Donbas but the West will have to assume it is a full blown invasion and that the real target may well be NATO countries in which case it is war because Putins demands are ridiculous. Putin doesn’t care about Donbas – it is not enough – whatever he gets will never be enough. Here lies the problem. Putin thinks the west is weak. It is not. It… Read more »
So Lord Haw-Haw speaks again!
😄
There are strong indications.
Well with all these ‘massive’ deployments the Russians must be selling an awful lot of gas because these deployments must be costing an absolute fortune!
They are sitting on some of the biggest deposits in the World and I would think that their transfer price is pretty low.
Burglarising your only customers doesn’t strike me as an ideal business model.
Ivan ,you think Salisbury was a UK government conspiracy and you seem to find it hard to tell the difference between and dictatorship and a democracy , you really cant be taken seriously lol.
“you are better than that.”
I’m not. But then I’m not a General…… 😂😂😂
Let the EU Airforce defend the Republic. WHY is the UK Taxpayer funding ITS AIR DEFENCE
Because it is in our interests to have our fighters able to cross into Irish airspace to confront threats coming from the west.
If it helps protect them too, fair enough.
We’re not doing it as a favour.
Where is this fantasy EU military that keeps getting mentioned on this site? As to the UK, the British Government agreed the deal, take it up with your MP if you are unhappy with the terms.
Ask Macron, he wants it.
Politicians have been suggesting some sort of European based military structure for 60 years in one shape or another, it hasn’t happened yet, maybe in another 60 years
Merkel also called for it. However, the one area the EU can never agree on is foreign policy
Again, you can go back generations and the same talking points have been made, they have never gone anywhere.
Perhaps if Ireland could be persuaded to join NATO!!!!!!!!!!!
Realistically the last 20 years has poisoned that well too much in Ireland.
Tell the Irish crews of the OPV’s that they can have free Guinness for a week and see how long the Russians will operate in their sector.
Putin is trying so hard to keep Russia relevant. The only way he can do that is by threatening other countries.
Putin plays chess while the West plays tiddlywinks, unfortunatley for us.
How about the Irish make a reasonable financial contribution to the RAF to effectively lease a dozen Typhoons. Also let the RAF operate from Irish airfields, so we could provide fighter cover out over the Atlantic without always needing Voyager support. That would help to keep the bad guys at a longer distance.
We don’t have enough to sustain the current aircraft we have, how exactly do you suggest operating leased Typhoons? Nor is there any infrastructure to support them in Ireland. Also I’m not even sure it’s constitutional to have active foreign operations in Ireland.
Well if the Irish want air defence they can build the infra structure required and alter their laws to allow Typhoons to operate from the airfields. I’m sure we can come up with a price.
The Irish public couldn’t give a feck about air defence, and therefore the politicians don’t either. The list of things even within the DF that are far higher priority than getting UK Typhoons. Hell even if we were getting fighters the Typhoons are near the last the AC should be looking at.
We’ve got a buckshee F35B, recently dried out, some remains of rice could be used for an inflight meal, any use?
Might as well just base a flight out of Belfast Airport.
That most likely gives them other headaches.
I’ll not argue the ways and means, but 4 tiffies gifted, with Irish DF pilots trained would give you the nucleus of a future force.
Now, you keep saying cobblers, but, not why.
Because we don’t have enough pilots for what we have right now, we have pilots in Australia and the US trying to get type hours, we don’t have enough ground crew to sustain what we have, nor even the basic infrastructure to support operating Typhoons (or any jet).
Even if you limit investment to just the AC, there are far more important investments than “oh look we have 4 fighters”…
Putin poking and prodding around for ‘weak spots’. ‘Lets go upset the Irish’ who have next to no armed forces. Knowing full well it will irritate (to say the least) Britain, and certain other allies.
I’m not irritated. If he invades Ukraine i’ll be irritated. This is just him jumping up and down desperate for attention.
Maybe the Russians need to read up on naval history. It didn’t end well for either the Bismarck or the Graf Spee when they ventured out into the Atlantic.
Its a long way home to Murmansk if you are in a crippled ship in the Atlantic, with lots of NATO countries along the way.
Let VP have his fun, in reality a Russian surface fleet wouldn’t get very far in the Atlantic. Its a NATO pond.
A good moment for NATO to harass the Russians trying to carry out their fire drill’s. Make it impossible! Set up NATO drills in the same area from just outside. Then follow them to the Black Sea. 🥴.
It would appear the talks have failed?
“US orders families of all American embassy staff in Kyiv to leave Ukraine amid fears of Russian invasion”
https://news.sky.com/story/us-orders-families-of-all-american-embassy-staff-in-kyiv-to-leave-ukraine-amid-fears-of-russian-invasion-12524067
And non essential staff can also leave…not good.
With Russiam exercises scheduled effectively off the Western approaches and within striking distance of Royal Navy and French Surface and SSN naval bases and also in the North Sea within striking distance of RAF Lossiemouth as well as Norwegian, Danish and Dutch naval and air bases, the first week of February is going to be very tense. Trust those ships that are able to will be out at sea testing their engines…and a suitable proportion of aircraft are doing some dispersal training.
Agreed!
The UK have also started to get Embassy non-essential staff out.
I thought this would happen and more to follow no doubt.
Putin seems hell-bent on destabilising Europe, but at what cost to Russia.
It has all the hall markings of a Russian era Afghanistan in the making.
Russia called back its Embassy staff and families a few days ago!
You begin to see how this might play out in the future, split the west defences, something I’ve mentioned before over the past two years.
China will be looking on to see how we respond.
Dozens of Chinese warplanes fly near Taiwan after US-Japan show of naval might
A Taiwan Ministry of Defense graphic shows where Chinese warplanes flew on Sunday, January 23.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/23/asia/china-taiwan-warplane-incursion-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
A sensible solution here would be for the ROI to enter into an agreement with the UK to lease a small flight of Typhoons bearing ROI Air force insignia to patrol the skies over Ireland. there already exists close co-operation between the two Air Forces so this would give Ireland a much needed sense of self reliance and sooth any lingering historical sensitivities over this issue
Unless they had Irish pilots, it wouldn’t work and at which point the UK would effectively be giving away typhoons that it already doesn’t have enough of.
Hi Steve. I think that Irish Pilots have trained with the RAF in the past and I thought that they could utilise the best of the first batch of Typhoons soon to be retired by the RAF. I realise it is not that simple and that there are other infrastructural issues but surely the ROI and UK could come to some sort of reasonable agreement at a half way station to allow Ireland to field a small number of fast Jets significantly controlled by them. If there are issues that make the continued reliance on the RAF problematic then this… Read more »
I can’t help thinking this is one of them polictical issues, that policticans like complaining about to be seen to be doing it, but have no intention of fixing as it would involve finding a whole load of extra cash. After all why pay for something that is currently being provided for free.
Might be better to gift Hawks than rent Typhoons. The point is to let Russia know Ireland is there and knows they are too. It’s not to pretend to be a credible threat.
Could Hawks operating from Dublin even reach Bears off the West Coast in adequate time and how long could they remain on station? Also where does the AC find all these extra personnel?
Good point geoff, even gifting them a small fleet with training would also be in our interests too and a chance to build relationships.
They were considering spending one billion euros total on new fighters not long ago which leaves maintenance costs and some additional infrastructure.
We have a dozen new T’1s in storage which can be upgraded as per Spain and went used with a good amount of airframe hours left.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/airbus-delivers-first-upgraded-tranche-1-typhoon-to-spain/
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/ireland-considering-purchase-of-jet-fighters/
At no point were fighters being considered for purchase, as I pointed out repeatedly in that thread.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/government-considering-purchase-of-military-jet-aircraft-1.4289801
Again, NO the government was not and is not considering buying fighters.
All that spun out of one line in the updated equipment plan that was there to reference the WP, most likely put there by a junior civil servant that couldn’t tell you what a fighter jet is. And even then it was expressly under the “well if somehow money and people were there then maybe we might section”.
Open question: is this sort of exercise being held in another other countries EEZ actually legal in international law? Do you think Eire or the EU could actually launch a diplomatic protest over this exercises location either way?
Hope there’s going to be some serious underwater monitoring going on over those undersea cables.
Doesn’t EEZ actually have any legal protections? It’s not terrirital waters and so I assume legally it’s just international waters, but im no international law expert.
Sending a patrol vessel into the middle of a live fire exercise to make sure they aren’t trawling without a licence might not be a particularly bright thing to do.
Have to admit. I knew the right of passage and free movement stuff etc but I didn’t realise you didn’t have control of activities that could force the suspension or diversion of perfectly valid and licenced ‘economic’ activities being performed by others.
I was curious and so googled it. It seems within the EEZ a nation has mineral rights below the surface but the water itself is international waters and so they have no legal control over them.
Cheers Steve. I also thought govts licenced commercial fishing activities and vessels etc wanting to use the EEZ. Imagine if you had a licence for certain volume of a certain species in certain waters at a certain time of year and the Russian navy turned up for shooting practice for a few months… wonder if they had to submit an Environmental Management Plan for stuff they are launching into the ocean….lol😀
I wonder if fish are counted as minerals etc, since they are below the surface and a resource. If they do, then the government could give a licence but not a lot they can do about what other vessels are doing outside fishing etc.
There was another example a few years ago when a RN frigate moved an Irish Trawler along out of the area of the EEZ that they were fishing in for a RN exercise, so it’s not unique to the Russians.
No please check your facts. That was a false news story. The RN never did that and the Irish press and minister who reported this had to apologise and retract the allegation. It was widely reported at the time, including on this website.
Actually no, the issue was that it was reported to have happened in the territorial waters not the EEZ, when it became clear that it was the EEZ then the minister apologised. It’s no different than the time one of the RN SSBNs transited off Donegal on the surface through the EEZ just outside the 12 mile limit a couple of years ago either, though I presume she had an issue that made her surface there.
Like I said, seems this is fairly common outside the 12 mile limit up Donegal way according to those fishing there, and a lot closer than the Russian exercise. It’s all in the EEZ so they can, but lets not act like it’s only the Russians.
https://www.rte.ie/news/regional/2022/0128/1276548-donegal-fisherman-shipping/
Can someone just hurry up and assassinate putin already.
Back in the days of the Cold War we could deploy half a dozen Leander class frigates up thier backside, we had diesel boats the Orbern class subs which were very highly regarded and capable. It was always enough to let the Soviets know we we there any time any day.
“Back in the days of the Cold War” we’re at the start of another so an increase in defence spending is required ASAP.
Clearly, we have the funds to increase our homeland security and offer a very useful deterrent.
“The UK government built a $146 billion war chest in the fourth quarter to defend against an anticipated run on the pound if Britain left the EU with no deal, according to a foreign exchange reserve analysis by Bank of America.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-feared-run-on-the-pound-brexit-built-warchest-bank-of-america-2019-5?r=US&IR=T
Can’t touch that it’s ring fenced. Anyway would you trust the MOD with that amount of money?
In all seriousness its political will and public ignorance, defence is not a vote winner and the public are tired of war. Who would trust a government after Blairs antics.
Well then, so the first week of February. Wouldn’t this make a great smoke screen by Putin? While the navies and aircraft of NATO are observing 😄(gathering intel) the Russian Naval exercise. The Russian Army invades Ukraine. Just my penny’s worth
Perisher course anyone. Would that not be fun have a SSN pop up in the middle of the Russian task force and then disappear. Then make it known that it was just a Perisher course with trainee skippers.
If we remember history, there were many ‘neutral’ countries invaded during WW2, all for the sake of the invading army’s convenience of passage or positioning of bases. This could happen to Ireland in the event of a major war.
The Irish people will understand that they will need to do something about their own defence (their politicians too) when its too late of course.
The major threat of that happening to Ireland during WW2 came from the allies side (Churchill and the Unionists in NI were mad for it for a period). The major issues are either a) a non NATO hostile nation manages to avoid/defeat the combined naval and air power of NATO to land a force in Ireland, or b) NATO decides to invade for some reason…
In either of those cases there isn’t really a credible defence strategy for Ireland, well at least according to the DOD and Finance.
In WW2, Britain had a huge flotilla of 300+ fighting ships, which. That alone was the reason the Germans never attempted an invasion of Ireland, Hitler had no respect for neutrality if he could have used Ireland as a base to attack Britain he would have.
Ireland is not a member of NATO, it would be easy for a moderate-sized hostile force to invade.
The UK wasn’t exactly concerned about neutrality either. The only plan Germany made for an invasion was even more farcical than their plan for Sealion and was only going to happen in conjunction with it. Like I said the more likely invasion was from the UK during the 1940-41 period.
Ireland isn’t a member of NATO, however the reality is it’s surrounded by NATO, what “moderate sized hostile force” do you suggest?
‘Operation Green’ nazi invasion plan for Ireland. The plan was good to a point but resupply for German paratroopers would have been a problem and the securing of ports that were not damaged for more supply problems.
The plan also made frequent mentions of an incredibly hostile (and armed) local population that would be encountered. Lol
Given the only real port that they could have got to was Cork which was still heavily fortified getting supplies would have been “interesting”, along with having most of the bridges in the South set for demolition.
But Green was always to be done with Sealion, so yeah it was never a likely threat.
Very interesting considering the Nazis had no idea how fortified Cork and its surrounding waterways were.
Well if they didn’t know about the fortifications of Cork Harbour it shows how little thought/planning was put into Operation Green given one of the Predreadnoughts visited the harbour in 1939. They couldn’t have missed the WW1 9″ battery, or the 6″ ones they would have had to sail through.
The fixed defences (pillboxes) and planned bridge destruction in Munster I can understand given how that happened after WW2 started.
They apparently missed it in the plan. It would have been a ‘ shooting gallery’ to Cork and Cobh. They also had a plan for Waterford and Wexford attacks. The Germans had outdated infrastructure info on Ireland by 10 years. Rail lines for example that were no longer in use.
The power plant at Ardnacrushna and the surrounding area they had great Intel on as they built it in the 30s.
150 miles is not exactly ‘off the coast’.
In the current situation in Ukraine, I see no reason to have any kind of military cooperation or anything to do with the Russian’s full stop.especially wher the nation is used for target practice by a belligerent nation that all tiesshould be severed
We have 24 tranche 1 typhoon about to leave service with 60% life left , why can’t our government give our Irish Brothers these aircraft. Plus some type 23 when they are replaced . Just remember Eire you left the union but many still consider you family !
Because there’s less than 1k in either the NS or AC and sustaining any of those options would be beyond the capability in any reasonable time period. Not too mention no infrastructure for them, or budget.
With regards to the lack of radar, they must have a civilian radar system? If they can get a squadron of fast aircraft perhaps FA-50 from Korea. Should have speed to get to where it’s needed. Or 2nd handF16s. The issue would be all the structure needed to run it. Military radar, command, control etc etc. How much of a cash injection is that going to take each year and can they afford it.
For out of the box thinking perhaps some joint service frigates/fighter aircraft/patrol aircraft with the uk.
It will all come down to will and money
There’s primary radar stations at the main airports but nothing long range.
As to the question of affording it, that’s not the issue, it’s the political/public will that’s the issue. Pre 1998 we sustained over 1% spending of a much smaller economy, but post Troubles that’s been slashed and burned.
If the spending was there, even to 1% within the medium term there’s no need for “joint service” operations, that would be the better part of 3+ billion a year which could handle pretty much any development.
I hope things like that start to happen. Maybe the UK could do some form of deal for Ireland and NZ to get them started, like car leasing and free servicing, with option to buy. Surely in everyone’s interest.
New Zealand made the choice to end fighter jets something like 30 years ago, arguably Ireland never had any. Even if the UK randomly decided to offer (and why would the UK be picked?) what makes you think either nation has interest in doing so?
Morning Mark. If the current setup is acceptable to both parties then let it continue but if Ireland wanted its own fast jets then surely it would make sense to do something with the RAF as there exists already a good relationship between the Irish AF and the RAF, it makes sense geographically, and a shared training and resource arrangement would be much cheaper than acquiring and setting up for say F 16’s or the like? A small flight of Typhoons with Irish insignia and Irish pilots would surely be of value in many ways to both sides. Regards from… Read more »
Well given neither Dublin or London has ever published the agreement to the best of my knowledge, we don’t know the terms and conditions. But in terms of the relationships, it’s interesting that when the AC needed a couple more certified helicopter pilots it went to the US and the US Army, and when they needed a couple of pilots certified for twin engines they went to the RAAF, neither time to the U.K. next door. As to a “small flight”, that’s just basically performance art, a “oh look the Irish have some fighters”, a former AC general as part… Read more »
Mount Pleaseant in the Falklands operates a flight of four Typhoons. Obviously the RAF have the resources to rotate but even so, some kind of joint arrangement could work with a small number-absolutely no need to acquire 18 Aircraft plus all the add-ons. No one is saying”Oh look the Irish have some Fighters” but maybe the Irish need to step up and not rely on the RAF. The simplest,cheapest most sensible way to do that would be to co-operate with your nearest neighbour but lets face it, the centuries old animosities linger. Neutral Ireland now can only send fishing vessels… Read more »
Mount Pleasant also has differences to Irish airspace. Say it’s a flight of four, on any given day one could be expected to be down for servicing leaving three for escorts, enough for a pair and then what? Which European nations when going for new fighters have gone for four aircraft? Like I said the only study of anyone that I’m aware of into the matter was from that former AC general, if you have anyone else putting numbers on it I’m open to that. And it’s not animosities, the public/political will/interest isn’t there so the matter goes nowhere, if… Read more »
All good Mark. Let’s hope it all goes off without any incidents.Cheers from a hot and humid Durban
No issues here for me, just Putin wanting to rattle NATO and show that Russia can operate in multiple spheres of operations but also making NATO a little cautious. The real going ons are still Ukraine and not this floating sideshow.
The probable goal is to keep British and French ships and aircraft deployed to the Atlantic rather than re-deploying to the Black sea.
Yea or data cable cyber warfare tampering.
Yeap, most definitely not aimed at the Rep of Ireland but, as you say, tying up the British & French navies, right on top of our undersea cables too. I’d expect that we pre-position a sub and have allied aircraft ready so it only needs a frigate or two on station.
Guarding these cables is the perfect task for ROV’s.
Hah…the Irish are pulling out the big guns.. https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2022/0125/1275728-ireland-fishing-russia/
Knowing some of those crews… I’m conflicted as to who to support…
Putin is trying to distract and pull NATO defensive forces in multiple directions. Almost entire black sea fleet and baltic fleet either at sea or preparing to sortie.
Any sign of NATO upping its game to match these deployments? Our friends and allies need to start sharing the load. Where is the German, Dutch, Belgium fleet? Every Russian ship can and shoild be man marked so no mischeif or illegal activities go undetected or unchallenged.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40792710.html
Without up to date AShMs we’d be better off keeping our warships away from Rusian warships. Ours would be blown away as soon as hostilities go hot.
Any plans to get FFBNW sorted or are we still just crossing our fingers & hoping we’ll not need these things every other navy doesn’t think are optional?
USS Little Rock (LCS-9) is about to be decommissioned, She is relatively new and packed with BAE and Rolls Royce tech. It would be an interesting buy for someone. I wonder if the US would sell it to the MOD.
Who outside of the USN would be insane to take on the running costs of an LCS for such limited capabilities?
An upgrade to the current OPVs would be the cheapest quickest way to get a basic (air, sub, surface) naval defence. Comparisons to the Finnish navy can be drawn as a fellow neutral state and a country of the same population size and similar GDP.
There are no comparisons to be made between the requirements or commitments of Great Britain and those of Finland. Chalk and cheese.
My thoughts regarding the purchase or lease of the LCS9 were more to do with increasing the number of available modern vessels for local patrol. The LCS concept was a flop for the US but that may not be the case for the RN, dependant on cost of course. Especially if LCS9 can be brought up to scratch; retro fitted with the new BAE 40mm turret “modules” with missiles and other off the shelf improvements.
I’m fairly sure he was suggesting comparing Finland and Ireland not Finland and the UK, the whole “neutral,same population, similar GDP” perhaps should have given it away to you?
Yes , Mark is correct. I was talking about the Irish Naval service having. Not the Royal Navy.
That being said I still don’t know why anyone would want to willing purchase an LCS, even if the US was giving it away the costs to get anything more than a glorified OPV seems beyond it’s value, easier just to order another Type 31 for the UK if another hull was wanted.