Earlier this week, and without fanfare, Ukraine forces launched an audacious ground attack across the border into the Kursk oblast, advancing up to 20 kilometres into Russian territory and capturing a number of small settlements.
The attackers, reportedly about 1,000 strong with a score or more tanks and other assorted armoured fighting vehicles, seem to have forced their way across at least two Russian defensive lines and scattered the defenders.
Most importantly, perhaps, is that they appear to have captured or established control over the Sudzha gas hub, vital to the transfer of Russian gas to the EU via Ukraine, which has rather surprisingly continued despite the war, and which brings Ukraine perhaps £600 million in transit fees in a deal which ends later this year.
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The fact that the Ukrainians have been able to launch such an assault and surprise everyone is due both to their operational security (OPSEC) and the fact that the Russians appear to have taken their eye off the ball in this sector.
It is a major embarrassment for Putin, who is now sending reinforcements to halt the Ukrainian advance and, presumably, to expel them from Russian territory. But at the time of writing, three days after the initial incursion, they are still there and show no signs of leaving – yet.
In fact, despite the arrival of more Russian forces, the Ukrainians are continuing to advance, although at a slower rate. Approximately 3,000 Russian civilians have left their homes as Ukrainian forces continue to push forward, and officials in Washington say that the offensive hasn’t violated US rules on the use of its weapons, absurd as those rules appear to many like me.
It is difficult to explain the Russian army’s lack of preparation to defend its lines or to have the foresight that this might happen. Many smaller raids across the border have taken place in the neighbouring Belgorod region and it’s not as if they have not had ample warning of just such a possibility.
It’s not clear whether the Ukrainians plan to attempt to hang on to the ground they have captured or whether it is indeed just a “raid” as others have described it. But whatever they decide or are forced to do, it’s clear that the advantage in this war swings like a pendulum, and neither side is getting it all their own way.
With the arrival of greater quantities of Western equipment and munitions, particularly the F-16 fighter jets, which are now reaching the Ukrainian AF, we will see more such raids and incursions in the coming months.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
I wonder if this land grab is to counter what Russia has taken so when at the peace table they just hand back to each other their gains.
It’s possible but I don’t think so Steve. I think Ukraine see Russia as weak at the moment. They are tempting the Russians to switch battllefields or at least attempt to. Where do they take kit and troops from and how do they get them there. The Russian front line must be paper thin as it is at the moment. If the Russians miscalculate they could be in for even bigger problems. This is where we find out what reserves the Russians have.
Well, I think unless the Chinese send their army across Russia, we can write off, but without complacency, a conventional Russian attack from the Kursk region. Elsewhere we watch Finland and the Baltic states like a hawk.
I had read that some of the Russian military bloggers that they have penetrated beyond 40Kms and hold about 600km2 of territory…
It seems like Ukraine has decided the best form of defence is an offensive action…they are probably trying to draw resources out of the Russian offensives in the east of Ukraine, maybe taking some pressure off the Pokeovsk logistics hub…Russia has been focusing massive pressure to take this while western supplies of materials falter..if Russia takes that hub and controls the roads from it, the Ukrainian army will be in serious difficulties…we may be seeing some of the end games before negotiations start. Especially as a lot of the analysts is saying that at present Ukraine is struggling to maintain recruitment and that Russia is struggling to maintain equipment levels to keep up very significant offensive operations for much longer ( a year ?)..so at some point significant offensive action on both sides will become unlikely… so maybe we are seeing Ukraine move to a point where it’s trying to get significant leverage for negotiations ( Russian soil would be massive leverage).
This could develop into an interesting situation. According to Forbes five brigades (4 Mech) have thus far been committed, one of which is equipped w/ AS-90. Originally, dismissed this a mere raid, no longer as convinced of this readout.
This is a truly Kafkaesque conflict. Did you happen to read the account re the missed opportunity to target literally dozens of Russian SU-34s at a southern Russian airfield, which are being utilized in the glide bomb mission. Kiev lobbied Washington for permission to employ ATACMS. No joy. Helluva way to run a war, or even a railroad. 🙄 Reminiscent of perhaps apocryphal accounts of targeting of NV conducted out of WH during Vietnam conflict. 🙄 Permit me to observe–both Democratic administrations.
Morning Mate,
I’ve being thinking that this is more than a raid almost from the start. The general ‘public’ consensus is that about 1000 troops are involved – rubbish. As soon as the scale of the advance started to be reported it was clear that either those 1000 troops were very good at being in more than one place at a time or there was rather more of them. Forbes numbers sound far more realistic. However, I think that even that force must be pretty thinly spread by now.
Have you seen the map on ISW webpage for 6th August? It seems the Ukrainians have achieved a general advance of about 20km into Kursk, but interestingly there are two ‘breakout’ corridors one heading north then east and another heading northwest. These are about 20 and 10km respectively. So at their furthest penetration into Kursk the Ukrainians appear have advanced 35 to 40km from the boarder..!
As you say an interesting situation. David Lloyd, see post below, points out that the Ukrainians have achieved the classic breakthrough which puts the Russians in danger of having their lines rolled up to the south. I doubt the Ukrainians have the forces to do that, but if they have a few of those nice big Leopard MBT with them they are now through the minefields..! And its pretty good tank country, I believe. A quick dash to the south with NATO standard equipment and training could see the Russians seriously up against it. From images of destroyed Russian columns to dozens of Russians surrendering to a handful of Ukrainian troops I think the Ukrainians have achieved every general’s dream scenario – shock and awe. It remains to be seen if they have the forces to exploit the situation.
The other thing is this raid has been ongoing for 8 days now! That means those mech brigades are being resupplied – has to! That is NOT a raid. A raid implies a quick in and out, preferably you are out before your enemy even knows you visited! Eight days of noise and even the dumbest enemy is going to notice something is happening so I don’t believe this is a raid. A diversionary attack is the most likely, yes, but I suspect it’s success has surprised even the Ukrainian high command. Now if they have even a small contingency built into their planning…
Oh yeh, the BBC is reporting that the Ukrainians have grabbed a pumping station on the gas pipeline that takes Russian gas to Europe. Oddly, the gas has continued to flow earning the Ukrainian economy $600m per year in transit fees. We really do live in strangely interesting times.
Cheers CR
CR,
As per usual, our viewpoints apparently coincide. 👍 The pumping station saga serves to highlight the surreal aspects of this conflict.
Personally, am thoroughly enjoying the potential prospect of Mad Vlad being hoisted w/ his own petard. However, there is the uncomfortable thought that if he senses real problems on home turf, he may choose a tactical nuke demo on UKR soil–relatively low yield, away from population centers. Snake Island may be a logical choice. 🤔
Snake island? What about the fallout? Dangerously close to NATO territory.
Hypothetical aimpoint only. Believe Orc planners have analyzed multiple options.
Ah, you do quote Shakespeare, noble sir.
Sadly, I must admit to having to look up petard and the quote,”Hoist with his own Petard”, came up. 😀
The tactical nuke issue did cross my mind, but I suspect that the Ukrainians will make a fighting withdrawal having made the point and I doubt even Mad Vlad would use a nuke given the limited advance.
Cheers CR
🤞🤞
Additional data indicate the Ukrainians intend to camp w/in Mother Russia for an extended period–observers note the Ukrainians are digging trenches w/ industrial level excavators. 😁 Mad Vlad, how embarrassing this must be for your propaganda campaign. 🤣😂😁 It was all proceeding according to plan; until it wasn’t. Really have to award the Ukrainians additional style points for this maneuver.
Plus Russia doesn’t seem to have capable reserves able to stop this. From what the consensus seems to be, the forces Russia have maintained in country are either unmotivated conscripts or those who got cushy rear area positions.
Ukraine could really do a funny here.
I have seen suggestions that it may the more like 8-10 brigades in total. 4-5 upfront, but support troops are following in behind their success. It’s where from here is the question
Yes, it is almost as though the 2023 counteroffensive has been successfully rebooted, w/out fanfare. The Ukrainians continue to surprise me (and evidently the Orcs as well). 😂😁
Update: Again according to Forbes, one of the objectives of the UKR campaign is the neutralization of Kahlino airfield in Kursk. Evidently, 24 Su-30SM fighter-bombers are based there, which have been responsible for approximately 50% of the KAB glide-bomb attacks across the entire front.
Hope Ukraine doesn’t give up the ground if it’s reasonable defensively, despite any ‘advice’ it might be given.
Let Russia pulverise it’s own country for a change.
Agree. Once the breakthrough is eventually contained then fall back to defensible positions and dig in deep.
Future peace negotiations. Sure Russia you can have your territory back when you seed Crimea back to Ukraine
Evidently, observers have noted UKR combat engineers digging trenches w/ large excavators. Must be planning for long term tenancy, regardless of the landlord’s objections. 🤣😂
I think this is what it’s all about. Ukraine had no cards it play to get back it’s territory in any peace talks, now it has one.
Whether they can hold the ground is another question, as Russia will throw everything they have at them once they get themselves organised.
I disagree with that.
I don’t think it’s about Ukraine getting leverage in peace talks. And I think they’re counting on Russia throwing everything they’ve got at their force in Kursk. I think Ukraine’s planned on it.
Russia’s already sent a limp-wristed response with conscripts being sent to stop Ukraine, ending with them being pulverised.
Russia might have plenty of conscript troops inside its own country but most if not all of their heavy equipment – artillery, tanks, IFVs etc – is currently in Ukraine. They might send more waves of conscripts – basically light or mechanised infantry at best, before losing those and realising they’ll have to pull back some of their forces from inside Ukraine. I think this is what Ukraine is counting on.
I’d like to think that this a way for Ukraine to force Russia to divert a lot of assets, in preparation for their own actions in Ukraine and strike whilst Russia is distracted, but it could also be, and probably more likely, to simply relieve pressure on their own defending forces inside Ukraine.
Either way, Ukrainian troops aren’t so far into Russia that keeping supplied will be a problem, and if/when Russia finally gets their shit together enough to properly respond, Ukrainian troops can easily fall back into Ukraine.
It’s fantasy, I know, but I’d love to see Russia divert masses of their best men and materiel to Kursk from the south, and once they’re gone Ukraine did a successful repeat of last year’s counteroffensive, against a much-weakened force, preventing Russia from being able to reinforce the south again.
Doing so in the few short weeks remaining before autumn sets in and the land turns into a bog.
As I said, I know it’s fantasy, and probably just to relieve pressure and blunt Russian attacks, but I can dream…
Not so sure on that.
The better way to counter it would have been throw these forces at the Russians in that area. It is reported that they have thrown tens of thousands of troops into this break through. That nunber of forces would have been enough to stabilise or push back Russia in the east.
I also orginally thought it was just a distraction but seems far more than that. I think Ukraine got the go ahead to use western weapons in Russia and exploited a weakness that Russia assumed they would not cross their border.
Would that really be better, though?
Seems that it’s 4-5 brigades, so around 10,000 troops, max?
Russia has far more inside Ukraine and those 4-5 brigades won’t make a massive difference just adding them to the same fights.
Seems to me that they are far more effective in what they’re currently doing and will have an outsized impact relative to their numbers. Given Russia’s performance to date, they’ll need to divert tens of thousands of troops and significant amounts of artillery and armour to push back the Ukrainians.
That would have far more effect than just shoving those same 4-5 brigades into the fight. If it were 20 brigades, then yeah.
As Sun Tzu said: fight the enemy where they aren’t. And right now, Russia is not in Kursk.
It doesn’t make sense to me.
What will happen is Russia moves forces away from its offensive in the south east and as Ukraine hasn’t put its forces in the north they can’t capitalise on it and so the front line ends up at stale mate again with Ukraine gaining none of its territory back.
If this was a all out level matched war between the two then this would make sense as it would be a step towards Moscow but Ukraine isn’t going for full our invasion of Russia.
If they had thrown them forces against the Russian attacks in the south they might have gained some Ukraine territory back.
As it stands Ukraine will lose the surprise of the extra forces and equipment over no regained Ukraine territory.
This is either a PR stunt aimed at reinforcing moral in the Ukraine army l, as they have been slowly retreating for the last year, or its about peace talks.
Unless of course Ukraine is playing an absolute blinder and has a second force hidden in the south ready to slam into the Russia defences as soon as they shift most of their forces to kursk
I’m wondering about this. I really hope that this is the case; that they’ve got forces hidden in the south, ready to strike at weakened Russian positions.
If they managed it then, best-case scenario is that they cut the Russian forces in half; say they manage to cut Russia’s land bridge from Zaphorizhia to Donestk, leaving those troops in the south cut off.
It might be wishful thinking but I’m hoping this is the case. It would be a genius-level move if they did it.
I can’t see it, with the level of surveillance going on, it seems highly unlikely either side could build up a force without the other side knowing ahead of time.
I suspect this counter attack only worked because Russia was convinced Ukraine wouldn’t cross the border and so ignored it.
As I said, it’s probably wishful thinking on my part.
However, how quickly could Ukraine move brigades to the south to capitalise on Russian forces being diverted from the area?
Even if this doesn’t happen, it could blunt Russia’s offensives in the north and Donbass and stop them in their tracks, on the verge of autumn, where it all becomes a bog and offensives become nigh-on impossible.
Even if it freezes it as a stalemate, perhaps that’s better than Ukrainian lines potentially collapsing. Especially if Russian forces get within artillery distance of Kharkiv city, as well. Russia could sit back and just pound Kharkiv over autumn and winter. Losing their second city for a second time would be a major blow to Ukraine.
I can’t help but think we haven’t seen all of it yet. I think Ukraine’s got something else planned.
I assume Ukraine could move a brigade about as fast as Russia, so doesn’t really work.
My concern is it has extended the front line, spreading Ukraine forces even thinner. They were already struggling to hold the existing front line.
Ukraine has so far this war proved to be highly creative, so time will tell what they have up their sleeves.
I don’t think Ukraine intends to hold Kursk long-term.
Probably hold it as long as needed to keep Russian forces occupied for as long as possible and deal as much damage to them as possible, and drawing as many Russian forces from either the south or north as possible, enabling Ukrainian forces in those areas to stabilise the front lines.
I’m interested to see what they’ve got under their sleeves. Definitely something.
Ukraine has interior lines. Even assuming they move at the same speed, which is not a given as, if this is a ukranian ploy, they’ll have done much of the operational planning required for that kind of move in advance, they have a much shorter route to cover.
Something else to consider is this:
Eventually, Russia will push the UAF out of Kursk. I think the UAF knows this and is counting on it. However, it will force Russia to put more troops and equipment along their borders afterwards, and keep them there to prevent it from happening again.
Russia may well have the manpower for this but needs to back them up with tanks, IFVs and artillery, or else it’s just a light infantry force that will be obliterated against armoured or mechanised Ukrainian attacks.
Every tank, IFV and artillery gun stationed to protect the border is one less attacking Ukraine. If nothing else, this would relieve considerable pressure on Ukrainian forces and weaken Russian positions, enabling a potential counteroffensive later on.
This could well be it. Russia has its huge internal security force in it’s Rosgvardia, but that has now proven to be useless at defence.
Both sides have repeatedly build up sufficient forces for major operational offensives and achieved near complete surprise in this war.
I’m surprised it took this long to try this to be honest. After wagner almost took Moscow rather easily, Ukraine must have been thinking about it.
The Wagner Group were nowhere near taking Moscow, being on a Road leading to Moscow is a completely different thing 😳.
They were at the outskirts of Moscow with no forces in their way. The government had left Moscow in fear. Yeah they were very close to taking it.
Not really, they might have reached Moscow, they might even have been able to temporarily occupy the Kremlin, but they where not there in anything near sufficient numbers to take Moscow, or hold it against any sort of Russian Counter Attack.
As much as I wanted Pierogi to keep going, there was a reason he negotiated. His plan was very much reliant on the Russian Army following his lead and taking his side. When they didn’t join his cause en masse, he knew his position was untenable.
Yeah Ukraine couldn’t but wagner would have. The issue is the govermennt legged it and the miltiary hated its leaders. Once the kremlin fell they would have set themselves up as the new leaders and a civil war would have broken out. With most of the army bogged down in Ukraine putin wouldn’t have any options to stop them in time and he would have been taken out.
No, I was talking about Wagner. Pierogi had less than a brigade heading towards Moscow, the rest of Wagner had its hands full just dealing with Rostock on Don. As I said, his coup required the military to actively support him and they didn’t.
Wagner was counting on RuAF to work with them in numbers, and ideally for putin to side with them. There’s also some evidence to suggest they planned to capture Gerasimov in Rostov-on-Don and got rumbled.
The Kremlin falling wouldn’t have changed the arithmetic really. Without capturing Shoigu, gerasimov and securing the cooperation of Putin and the RuAF, Wagner would have died a very bloody death.
Which would have been entertaining, and might have forestalled the Russian Avidiivka offensive.
The miltkary did support him, they waved him through a load of check points and also large numbers joined as they approached Moscow. Every expert analysis I have seen had no doubt he would have taken over the country if they hadn’t stopped, what no one knows is why they did
No Steve. They didn’t.
A few Rosgvardia soldiers stood down and waved him through rather than die facing an armoured column. (And there’s a difference between choosing not to die facing down tanks with nothing more than an AK, and “siding with” those tanks. Also Rosgvardia is not military, just FYI.)
Can you name a single unit (Division, Brigade, he’ll I’d even take Battalion) that came to support Wagner? No. Because none did. A single Company group declared their support for him and got purged pretty quickly, but the rest of the RuAF did not lift a finger to help them, which is why there where no purges of the RuAf after the March.
If you’re only seeing people say they could have taken over the country, then you need to consider your sources, because that’s wishful thinking. The reason Wagner stopped was because they knew they where not going to win, and their last hope, that Putin would side with them over Shoigu, got dashed.
Didn’t lift a finger to stop it either.
Not true, while the military reaction was slow, Russian forces where deployed to Rostov-on-Don to seal off Pierogi, and Utkin, although outpacing any response, still was engaged in combat operations on the M4 and in Voronezh, as well the few forces anywhere near Moscow assisting the civil authorities in trying to blockade the Oka crossings.
Had Utkin reached Moscow, and settled into the Kremlin the noose would have tightened around him, as loyalist units redeployed. And this is where Wagner needed the RuAF to actively be onside.
As I said it would have been bloody, and I’d have liked to see it (if only because we’d have gotten more Russian combat power destroyed than we did), but in the end 8,000 Wagners soldiers in Rostov and 5,000 in Moscow would never have unseated Shoigu without the active support of large quantities of the RuAf, which was clearly not forthcoming.
Steve, first you think Wagner could easily have seized Moscow (with just a brigade?) based on comment from several experts and then you think they could have taken the whole of Russia?
This is fantasy.
Hitler could not get to and seize Moscow with several million men.
Rubbish – they knew Russian forces had been hurriedly deployed in a series of checkpoints and choke points on the route, they didn’t even get halfway there before a settlement was reached.
They were way over half way they were at the edge of Moscow.
There was no heavy check points, as all the ones they had come up against had surrendered. Moscow had nothing to stop them.
Only if the edge of Moscow is 200 miles south of Moscow, the column was near Krasnoye when the agreement was made and Wagner stood down.
There where also police, Rosgvarfia and FSB checkpoints between them and Moscow (they where literslly tearing up roads and building tank traps), but those where unlikely to delay Wagners armoured column for long. But fighting within the city would have been bloody, and ultimately Utkin (who was commanding the column) only had 5,000 men with which to take and hold the city. Nothing more was going to reinforce them.
After Wagner tried it, though, Ukraine then went through a serious shell shortage. I think it’s taken them this long to build up munitions stocks to enable this move.
True. It will be interesting to see how long it takes before that happens again. Ukraine is basically fully dependent on the US and in the US the republicans seem to be using it as a bargaining chip to get other things they want, so only a matter of time before another stalemate happens.
Well, hopefully the Republicans get an absolute battering in November and lose not just the presidential campaign but control of both houses.
One silver lining of the $61 billion US aid package coming so late in the day is that there should still be plenty of it left to tide them over until after the US election.
Fingers crossed!
Depends how much of that 61b is actually headed to Ukraine. I read somewhere that a large percentage is actually going to the US military to replace stuff already donated.
There’s a good Perun breakdown.
Short story: stuff going to the US military is A) enabling more stuff the be freed up for Ukraine b) is increasing us industrial capability to make more stuff for Ukraine.
A brigade is usually about 5000 strong.
True, but we don’t actually know what the current strength of Ukrainian brigades are, also, from the reporting I’ve seen, it’s elements of about 4-5 Ukrainian brigades, not necessarily the full formations. Maybe 6-10 battlegroups?
Yep. I have just taken a look at the latest reports on the Institute for the Study of War website. Incredible detail about Russian units (designation, title etc), both those trying to deal with the Ukraine incursion into the Kursk region and those inside Ukraine – but no details there at all about the Ukraine forces inside Russia, not even their estimated strength.
NY Times website 13-14 Aug said: “Maps of the battlefield compiled by independent analysts show that soldiers from brigades long fighting in the east had moved discreetly into Ukraine’s Sumy region, just across the border from Kursk. A drone battalion from the 22nd Mechanized Brigade, which for nearly a year had defended the beleaguered frontline town of Chasiv Yar, was spotted near the border in mid-July. Troops from the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, engaged in fierce combat near Vovchansk in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, also shifted to the area. So did soldiers from the 80th Air Assault Brigade, which was at the forefront of fighting in the Kharkiv region this spring.
Just before noon on Aug. 6, Russian authorities claimed about 300 soldiers, more than 20 armored combat vehicles and 11 tanks from Ukraine’s 22nd Mechanized Brigade had crossed into the country.
Many reports today say that Challys were included in the operation, (consistent with AA bdes being committed) with at least one being destroyed.
Generally not helped by Ukraine just keeping quiet. Zelensky had a great interview where someone asked him to comment on what was happening in Kursk and just smiled. Anyway most reporting I’ve seen was based on Z-Bloggers aggregating Telegram conversations.
Good OPSEC by Ukraine.
Gaining Russian territory as a prelude to negotiation or a last ditch attempt to divert Moscow forces away from the Dombras front before it collapses. Regardless, they run the risk of escalation by using NATO supplied aircraft and armour to attack Russian villages.
Allegedly, this Op. was a complete surprise to both Britain, America and the rest of NATO. It is significant that supposed regular Ukrainian units, may have disobeyed our instructions and invaded Russian territory.
I would like to know more about this unauthorised incursion into Russian territory. Was it ordered by Kiev, in which case it calls into question future military aid. Or was this yet another independent action by rogue militias. The latter scenario has very sinister implications. The very thing those of us worried about escalation were concerned about.
Sod off Ivan.
Back at you Natasha! 😂
Allegedly, this op, was a complete surprise to both Britain, America and the rest of NATO.
Yes it was a pleasant surprise to both Britain, America and NATO. Both of them.
Not if it escalates. Don’t get me wrong, I dislike the ruskies as much as the next old Cold War Tom. However, knowing how protective the average Russian is about the Rodina. It would be ironic if Vlad’s game of brinkmanship was the only thing preventing the hardliners in the military from employing CW & BW agents.
The incursion salient into their own territory, would be an opportune location for a none persistent agent. Everyone knows Russia still produces them. Until now all they have used according to grapevine intel is CS. But once the CW gene is properly out of the bottle. All hope of stopping it rapidly escalating dissipate, like Hydrogen Cyanide (Blood Agent) clouds in the morning breeze.
I know I’ve banged on about this before. But it genuinely plays havoc with my PTSD.
What do you mean by escalation?? every time the West provides Ukraine with equipment, Russia says its going to escalate, then it doesn’t, and the West still falls for their BS, now that Ukraine are in Kursk oblast, what are the Russians going to do, lob a few tactical nukes?? I don’t think so, so again what do you mean by escalation??
Not nukes, although I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility. Chemical weapon use on their own territory would be a very realistic and even attractive scenario. I don’t know how far you have ventured down that particular rabbit hole my bleak friend. Perhaps Winterbourne Gunner or deeper?
Suffice to say, there are agents that lend themselves to use on areas intended to be quickly reoccupied by friendly forces. As well as agents intended as area denial for longer periods. The Russians are very well versed in the use of such things. Far more experienced than Western counterparts. It’s a legacy from Soviet days. Just trust me on that. I’m more shocked they have so far only used CS. At least as far as we know.
You are johninmks brother aren’t you🙄
Clearly not. 😒
Just what do you mean by “our instructions” are we fighting this war or is Ukraine?
”unauthorised” do you actually believe multiple units of the Ukrainian army would essentially mutiny and invade orcland?
I don’t really believe you are top of Ukraines list for info so wonder on😂
You tell me who is fighting this war. I know NATO is training and equipping Ukraine’s dwindling numbers of troops. While financially supporting their entire economy and national apparatus. Without our help this would have been over ages ago. As always, follow the money to see who is in charge.
It’s now a matter of official record that Ukrainian militias operate under their own command structure with separate agendas. The Mariupol campaign/debacle being an example of an independent campaign run by the Azov militia. The Chechen jihadi militias are notorious for it. So why not speculate that a simple raid into Kursk oblast was turned into something bigger. It’s as plausible as everything else in that corrupt oligarchy since 2014.
I’ll say this again FYI. When it comes to Russia and Ukraine I’m impartial. Equally disliking both founding members of the USSR.CCCP for the same reasons. Look what happened when they inflicted communism on the world. It’s understandable why NATO chose to pour fuel on the fire and prolong the fighting, I get it! Both oligarchies are corrupt and Putin is pure evil. But surely enough is enough.
Your hatred for Ukraine is pretty plain to see! Now does that hatred spread to all former soviet bloc countries the Baltics,Poland etc? They were all dictatorships once upon a time! They managed to free themselves so after Ukraine if the orcs win they are next do you care?
During the Cold War it’s generally accepted that (perhaps mistakenly showing the Orc performance so far) it was nuclear weapons that actually kept the peace as on paper the bloc outnumbered NATO and we would be fighting a defensive war on NATO soil.
Does your twisted view on things expand to China and Taiwan perhaps?
I see you either did not read my comments fully or failed to comprehend.
The USSR was founded by the four privileged republics. Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and “Transcaucasia.” Their privileged status meant they could theoretically leave the USSR anytime they chose. Unlike all of the other “soviet bloc” nations who were occupied/concurred during WWII. Poland was invaded by both Germany and USSR, starting WWII. Do you see the difference.
You use the term orc which is more applicable to all four USSR founders.
As for the Republic of China or “Taiwan.” They are the true Chinese state. Mainland China by contrast, is occupied and usurped by the vile CCP.
Georgeski. Stop pretending to be a reasonable commentator. There is nothing sinister about Ukraine metering out a taste of what Russia has been doing to them for nearly 3 years. If an escalation occurs it will come from Russia and be met face on. Let’s see Russia’s second rate military face fully trained and equipped NATO formations. I’d give Russia 1-2 weeks before total military collapse max
Bellinski, who is claiming to be a reasonable commentator?
When it comes to the fate of the former USSR founders, I’m as bitter and twisted as they come. How do you know there’s nothing sinister afoot, it’s war FFS. Deception, misinformation and subterfuge are the rules of the game. Actually, it’s worse than war. It’s a geopolitical pi55ing competition between the east and west power blocks. Take note how those stirring the pot never fight themselves. They send others to fight and die.
Needless to say. I don’t want the few NATO formations we have left, slogging it out against Russia and it’s allies. My sons will be the ones on the front line. As I was during the Cold War and my father before me. Let the military be the deterrent that keeps the peace by superior firepower. Actually, that did sound a little too reasonable. Blame old age.
Georgebogoffski just to reiterate. This war was started by Russia, prosecuted by Russia and Russia alone is entirely responsible for the crimes against humanity, war crimes and for reparations too Ukraine for the damage caused and human suffering.
How Ukraine decides to prosecute it’s war against the invading Russian fascists is their decision.
Your comment made me laugh into my Weetabix. “What few NATO formations we have left” you are kidding right?
NATO, just in terms of European NATO has 2.5 million+ military personnel. Add Canada, USA to that and it is Russia that is massively outnumbered qualitatively and quantitatively.
😂😂😂😂 Bellendski are you by chance Ukrainian or one of the numerous online bots. That both sides are using to good effect
To put the record straight. There are several reasons the war started back in 2014. Not least of which was the mess leftover from the break-up of the evil USSR following it’s defeat in the Cold War.
Firstly, the overthrow of an elected pro-Moscow government in a corrupt Ukrainian oligarchy. Followed by a period of persecution of Russian speakers by Ukrainian right wing nationalists. As recorded by Amnesty International and other independent agencies.
Then the annexation of the Crimea by Russia and declarations of independence by the majority ethnic Russian population of Donetsk and Luhansk.
The full extent of interference within Ukraine by the CIA and SIS etc. Using sponsored groups cultivated during the Cold War, is yet to be revealed.
None of the above is an excuse for the invasion of 2022. However it is an explanation why Putin decided to invade rather than further corrupting government within the Ukrainian oligarchy. Other “events” and a show of weakness by the Biden administration, was all he needed.
The current NATO force in Europe is a fraction of what was available during the Cold War. So yes, the few we have left. Also, it is unlikely that NATO would face Russia alone. Communist China, North Korea and Iran.
@George
This post is complete crap. In the first place the Donbas front is in no danger of collapse; the Ukraine Army is using it to kill thousands of half trained Russian conscripts and is sensibly swapping limited ground for the opportunity to kill more
Secondly, Ukraine is massivly dependent on the US. There is no chance – zero, zilch, nada, nil – that they would be launching an offensive into Russia without American buy-in. They have deployed at least four battalions of seasoned troops supported by armour including tanks and Bradleys. They are using HIMARS to destroy Russian defensive positions and despite Russian denials, the evidence so far shows the Russians have abandoned their positions and have ran away
Third, there is geolocated footage of a Russian reinforcement column that has been completely destroyed. You can take it that this will not be the only one.
Lastly, the UKraine has broken through three lines of Russian prepared defences and are exploiting open country. The Russians are in danger of having their front to the south rolled up in a classic breakthrough maneuver. Watch this space
Why do idiots keep going on about Ukraine using NATO gear and escalation because of that, when Russia uses shitty Iranian gear and shitty North Korean gear to fire into Ukraine, get a set of balls and stop giving a shit what the Russians think.
Bugger off, Vatnik.
Escalating how so, Ukraine has already been full out attacked by Russia and Russia has nothing left to escalate with.
That’s Russia problem they keep talking about escalating and red lines but then don’t follow through as they have no way to do so, they are the boy that cried wolf.
Ukraine was unlikely to launch any major offensives this year so doing a small but politically powerful one was a smart choice.
It’s hard to claim that Ukraine is losing when they’re taking Russian soil. Hopefully the recent defeatism in the west will be put to bed.
I don’t think it’s a small operation if it was it would be a suicide mission. They’ve been streaming in. It’s like 2014 in reverse to some degree . . . Undefended territory. They’ve called in conscripts to defend and they can’t do it. Lots of prisoners have been taken and they prepared for that . . . If human waves of conscripts is your preferred offensive strategy then what the **** can you do on defense??? Spotters on the ground and not even fresh conscripts are likely a bad combination for ivan. Sure it is about negotiations, but there are many points being made to russia. Obviously karma is one. Attacking a weakness is another. Letting ivan know that we know the nuclear threats are just part and parcel of their broke-ass hybrid warfare deception tools and that we know the last thing they want to do is mix it up is my favorite message. Controlling advantageous territory and resources is also important regardless of negotiations. It’s very interesting that all this is happening right as Ukraine is beginning to make use of longer range weaponry that they have been given permission to use inside of ivan’s head and before Ukraine unveils some big time new airborne capabilities . . .
Maybe it’s just a Ukrainian special military operation being done on Russia.
They heard Nazis had taken over a village, oh hang on that lines already been used…..
All I can say is bloody well done. I just hope that the UKR Army pulls them out in time if need be, four or five Mech Brigades of combat experianced troops would be a huge loss if they got cut off.
As for it being a raid, not sure, I would suggest a spoiling attack in force possibly a pre-emptive strike. I did read yesterday that the Russians got caught again when they sent a troop convoy to reinforce the area and walked right into a UKR ambush. Whoops a daisy.
I would imagine that Russia is now redeploying troops to counter this threat, when larger formations are on the move it is then time to pull out, relocate and repeat if possible. When pulling out to destroy everything that is of military use such as fuel dumps, bridges, rail nodes, airfields, workshops etc. As Russia seems to think that electric, gas, water and dams are legitimate targets possibly blow them up as well.
I know that would really pee of Russia and Putin, but it could also put pressure on Putin. At the same time by destroying infrastructure that can be used for armored or mech formations the Ukraine has at least for a time period protected their border against the possibility of that type of attack in that area.
I for one do not understand what is Putins end game. He seems to have gotten himself and Russia into a situation that there is no real way out. Ukraine will not give up on any of its territory, Putin cannot pull out as he will loose face which for him means loosing power, and his forces cannot capture all of the country. Even if he did capture all of the Ukraine he will have the situation where his troops are in a nation of 40 million Ukrainian people that will hate the Rusiians. The Russians seems to have gotten theselves into a second Afgan situation.
Ukrainians have got further in today (geolocation) and are digging in, contacting locals and removing damaged vehicles!
Breakthroughs in other area on the front line
I’m going to say finally. Last year I mentioned that Ukraine should left hook the Donbass region and try to cut off Belgorad. As it’s a major hub for road and rail, that provides supplies to the Russians. Instead Ukraine went further north towards Kursk. Which is itself a major transport hub.
Ukraine has managed to break through two poorly defended lines. There is nothing to prevent them going further. Hopefully Ukraine has the mass to keep on the offensive. Something that CGS should be mindful of, with his triple the lethality message. What’s the point of triple lethality, when you have no one to send to take advantage of the situation?
🤞👍
I think this is a ‘if you don’t like the conversation change the subject…..’
Rerunning battle of the Somme was a stupid thing to force UKR to do by virtue of slow delivery of weapons.
So now they are doing manoeuvre warfare …..partly to show they can and Mad Vlad’s useless Orc’s can’t. So as to justify being given more manoeuvre type assets…..
Once the F16’s have cleared the RuAF with standoff weapons and the S300/400’s then I think some A10’s would be rather more than useful to mash up Mad Vlad’s antiques roadshow of Franken Tanks…
With the right support this could turn very fast…..
There is an opportunity here, but it depends on two factors. The first is like I said, mass. Ukraine to fully exploit the breakthrough must have the mass to keep the offensive going. Which is by rolling through their reserves and using maneuver tactics via thunder runs to exploit gaps. If they don’t, it will stagnate then eventually get squeezed back to the Ukrainian border. As Russia reorganizes its forces.
The second is time. Ukraine must exploit the chaos and confusion its breakthrough has caused. Russia will be scrambling to sort out forces it can send to block Ukraine’s advance. This will undoubtedly require troops that were conducting operations in the Donbas. Thereby causing the Russian advance to either slow down or stagnate. As they won’t have the mass to keep pushing.
Ukraine, if they do have the mass, may have pulled off a blinder. If they can keep pushing, especially towards key transport hubs such as Belgorad and Kursk. By putting these key areas in danger. Will significantly hamper Russia’s ability to resupply their front lines in Ukraine. As it will have to get rerouted via Rostov on Don. So the next week is going to be crucial for Ukraine. Can they keep the offensive momentum going?
They are now fighting on their terms in the open.
Modified toy drones are all very well for static warfare you can map lines and force and produce stitched overheads and drop the odd grenade .
If you are manoeuvring fast then they are less useful.
Here UKR can take full advantage of the ATCMS that US have donated which can take out convoys if think skinned vehicles. This is what this is about making the Russians fight in a battle space that UKR can control and have advantage in.
Meat grinder doesn’t work in highly mobile battle spaces. For a start you need vehicles that work with fuel and a logistics tail.
Nope UKR are making the Russian play the UKR game and drawing forces away into carefully designed killing fields.
I’d be very surprised if they can keep the offensive momentum going on a large scale tbh. Even compared to the Kharkiv Offensive last year, the ground gained is relatively small (about 1/10th). They might keep making gains, but the element of surprise has passed and we will eventually see the Ukranian offensive cummulate.
If Ukraine can either by using drones or another kinetic means attack the railway lines around Kursk and Belgorad. Then Russia will have to move its troops/vehicles by road. Which will further delay when they can be used against Ukraine. There’s is a lot of “ifs” that need to line up. But there is still a chance that Ukraine can out maneuver Russia.
I’ll be brutally honest: I think if the ZSU could paralyse the Russian rail network, they’d have done it by now.
Well the road bridges are going down now and the distances are huge.
“Himars artillery has destroyed a key bridge across a river in the Kursk region that Russia was using to reinforce its embattled soldiers.
Russian military bloggers said the destruction of the road bridge across the Seym River outside the village of Glushkovo would force Russian reinforcements on a dangerous detour”
Shaping exactly as predicted.
I’m sure the Ukraine’s will make that detour…..costly?
Kursk to Moscow 327 miles. (500k) Just saying…
Nah.
In that route lays disaster.
Ukraine seems to be digging in now, some 30-40KM into Kursk. My guess is they’re preparing killing fields and sitting back to challenge Russia: “Come and have a go if you think you’re hard enough!”
Russia can’t not meet this challenge. They’ve already thrown convoys of conscripts at the Ukrainian force and have been battered. They’ll have to respond next with armour and artillery, which is all currently in Ukraine.
Two choices: let Ukraine hold that land or divert a lot of artillery, armour, and probably tens of thousands of troops to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk, leaving the areas in Ukraine they vacate weaker; either stopping their own offensives or opening them up to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
I think you’ll find Russia has not fallen for that trick 🤔.
I would have thought that Ukraine either reinforces the ‘outfit’ at Kursk, or they have another ‘battlegroup’ ready, to advance deep into other Russia territory.
If they then had anything left, they could then go for the Crimea?
A captured Ukrainian POW has allegedly said the plan was to take Kursk and Belgorod, and use the situation for an exchange of Territory.
Source?
Source for what ?.
Next stop Moscow 🫰🫰
It’s like Kelly’s Heroes all over again, I wonder if there is a bank vault full of gold involved with the invasion.
Dern posted once a great meme with Putin, and Oddball, calling from a cafe far behind the lines, that would suit that comment nicely.
Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves man.
🤪 brilliant character
“Always with the negative wanes man” -watched the movie again a couple of weeks ago on Sky. Donald Sutherland was a gifted soul.
oops I meant waves -not wanes!😚
Was….Damn I didn’t know he’d died. Yes, brilliant actor, I liked his Dirty Dozen character too.
Yes listen I’m in a cafe about 20 miles east of Sevastspol and I’m kind of hung up I need about 60ft of Bridge.
That meme will return when Kerch falls.
The aim should be to remove Putin from power. That is the only way Ukraine can have peace.