Ukraine is increasingly likely to be inflicted with a highly targeted Russian military offensive in its Eastern region. It is now increasingly a matter of ‘when’ and not ‘if’ and exactly how damaging the battlefield impact will be.
The Russian military is significantly stronger and more capable than Ukraine’s military, and despite the 8,500 troop build-up, America and NATO allies articulated that though they will fully assist with arms, ammunition and intelligence they will not directly deploy their forces to Ukraine to thwart a Russian offensive.
This article was submitted to the UK Defence Journal by Ozer Khalid. The author is a Senior Intelligence and Defence Analyst, a Counter-Terrorism Expert, an Advisor to Heads of State and a globally published columnist. He can be reached at @OzerKhalid on Twitter.
This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines.
Many NATO members evacuated personnel from their embassies.
A highly focused and targeted Russian assault on Ukraine as opposed to a full-blown nationwide invasion increases in probability and possibility.
Prior to any invasion, Moscow is likely to continue destabilizing Ukraine via ongoing low-intensity paramilitary assaults especially in the Eastern Donbas region, where both armies have been at loggerheads for eight years claiming 14,000 lives.
Russia does not seek a clean sweep throughout Ukraine, but instead would rather first focus on the country`s already fissured eastern Donbas region.
The Kremlin is to intensify more focused attacks, deepening its trench war in Donbas along the 420-km-long front line, striking at sensitive key infrastructure installations and heavy industries to ensure maximum battlefield impact in a mine-infested casualty-laden conflict zone.
Russia also has its eyes peeled on intensifying aggression across the 250 km contact line near the insurgent strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk. Last week, the Ukrainian Directorate of Defence Ministry Intelligence HUR MOU – GUR MOU confirmed that Moscow equipped insurgents with additional tanks, mortars, self-propelled artillery and seven thousand tons of fuel with an estimated cumulative ammunition units of 35,000.
In terms of intelligence compromise, Russia’s Directorate Vympel Intelligence Unit and its spies have significantly infiltrated the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FISU) offering Moscow a significant strategic heads-up.
UK Defence Minister, James Heappey also sounded the alarm bells that an attack is most likely to emanate from Russian military advance-force ops already embedded in Ukraine.
Despite all the escalatory hyperbole, Moscow, at the immediate present, does not possess sufficient troops on Ukraine’s border to spearhead a full-blown nationwide armed forces invasion and takeover according to Ukraine`s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and previous Defence Minister, Andriy Zagorodnyuk.
Zagorodnyuk confirmed that Russia’s current 120,000 troops are insufficient and that Moscow still needs to deploy a total of 400,000 troops to the Ukrainian border for a full-blown invasion deep into Ukrainian territory.
The Kremlin’s recent troop dispatch to Kazakhstan illustrates its ability to preempt political events swiftly and decisively. Currently, key tactical battlefield fundamentals missing from Russia`s armoury include battalion tactical groups not yet in possession of their full tank and armoured vehicle complements including no mobile field hospitals. These essentials would have been in place had the Kremlin been hell-bent on a full-scale swift invasion.
Other key essentials missing for a full-blown invasion include non-complete formations of Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) including tank and aerial units, no launching and testing systems and technologies for wartime operations as assessed by Ukraine`s former Defence Minister, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, for a Kyiv based think-tank the Center for Defense Strategies.
This is despite an unparalleled troop deployment of 120,000 and military drills scheduled for February 2022 a stone`s throw away from Kyiv, as Belarusian Security Council`s Alyaksandr Volfavich, confirmed to BelTA news agency that Russian military forces and hardware commenced trickling into Belarus.
Along with units from Russia’s 41st Combined Arms Army, an estimated sixty-seven Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) (combined arms formations averaging 800 personnel per unit), currently the tiniest operational units in Russia`s military, are stationed close to Ukraine`s border, where eleven battalions shifted to Belarus. However, a full invasion requires a minimum of at least one hundred BTG battalions complemented by support contingents.
If the current deployment pace is maintained, especially if more aerial troops are deployed nearer to Ukraine’s border then the risk augments. Presently though, satellite imagery exhibits that there is a scarcity of tents and logistical infrastructure for a full-scale occupation.
Had Vladimir Putin sought a swift full-throttle attack, the most obvious route would be through Belarus, although any invasion on Kyiv with its 2.884 million population risks massive civilian casualties. A full-blown invasion would also be larger in scale than anything Russia has endeavoured since World War II, over-stretching Russian military logistics to their utmost limit and their coordination abilities to pull something of such magnitude remains questionable.
Supplies are another factor deterring a full-blown Russian invasion. Russian army units have large amounts of supplies and ammunition, utilizing them until they are depleted. Though they are initially unsafe, as they encroach deeper into antagonistic terrain their efficacy nosedives. Fresh reinforcements and BTGs must come forth and take over, as there is no instantaneous supply availability.
Shifting forces to Belarus, under the cover of the 2022 Allied Resolve joint exercises, reinforces the Russian-Belarus loyal nomenklatura, tactically elongates the terrain the Armed Forces of Ukraine must defend. The Allied Resolve Joint Exercise creates timely tactical overtures for Russian tanks elsewhere, however, they still lack the soldiers to cover such terrain.
Getting to Kyiv is not tough. Holding onto the territory is the real challenge.
Other alternatives for Russia`s military involve reorganizing and diverting ground troops away from Ukraine if Russia`s demands are met yet continue aiding anti-Ukraine insurgents in the Eastern regions. Deploy an increasing number of Russian forces to the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, making them bargaining chips, not accepting to withdraw them till some of Putin`s demands are yielded to and Ukraine adheres to the Minsk Protocol.
Capture Ukrainian terrain on the Westernmost reaches of the Dnepr River using them as negotiation tools including Odesa linking Russia to the secessionist Transdniestra Republic denying Ukraine Black Sea access, detrimentally damaging Ukraine`s trade and economic arteries.
The Kremlin can grab tracts of land between Russia and Transdniestra, accessing the Sea of Azov incorporating the strategic port of Mariupol, Kherson (a vital port on the Black Sea) and Odesa to safeguard strategic water supplies for Crimea and deny Ukraine sea access, circumventing combat in Kyiv or Kharkiv.
The Kremlin`s belligerent stance and troop deployment inching ever-closer to Ukraine along with troop build-up in the Baltics and snap drills between Moscow and Minsk are attempts to pressure America, NATO and the EU to sit on the negotiation table, yield to Moscow`s agenda, extract maximum concessions, curb NATO`s Eastward expanse into Russia`s sphere of influence, adhering to the Minsk Agreement(s) and offering written security guarantees.
Prior to any invasion, Moscow is likely to continue destabilizing Ukraine via low-intensity but consistent paramilitary strikes, hybrid lawfare by recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk as Russia’s Communist Party submitted a resolution this week calling on Putin to formally recognize the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR).
Indirect proxy warfare is also likely to take place via cyber escalation, as is usually the case, most likely spearheaded by Russia`s elite APT27 cyber-attack units 74455 and Unit 26165.
On 19 January, it was discovered that 70 Ukrainian websites, including the Ministries of Defence, Foreign Ministry, Education and many more were defaced with ominous messages in Ukrainian and Russian associated with a hacking group affiliated with the Belarus and Russian military. The cyber-attack was executed by installing destructive malware concealed on digital devices belonging to an assortment of Ukrainian organizations and government agencies. The hackers concealed the malware to appear as ransomware, but once activated, it wipes out data and renders devices inoperable, accentuating the crucial role of advanced technology in modern warfare.
Sixth and seventh generation hybrid warfare measures seeking to dispirit Ukrainians are underway, from stealth cyber-malware to attacks on key infrastructure. U.S intelligence also cautioned that Russia is preparing a ‘false flag’ operation within insurgent territory, likely to be exploited and leveraged as a war pretext.
I don’t think Putin wants the whole of Ukraine. He seems to have a sense of history and wants traditionally Russian aligned lands back in his sphere of influence. Ukraine, like much of that area, was fought for by various factions, the Russians, Poland, Lithuania. For instance Lviv, lying in Western Ukraine was Poland’s second largest city. If he invades I think he’ll leave Western Ukraine alone, which was traditionally and ethnically Polish. He might put a knife to Kyiv’s throat as a bargaining strategy but that city was never Russian as far as I can tell and so he’ll… Read more »
It is neither paranoia nor access to alternative intelligence. He doesn’t think that. It’s a lie made for political advantage.
Nathen wrote: The question is though – why does he think NATO wants to invade? Is it paranoia or does he have access to intelligence we simply don’t? As jon has stated he doesn’t, He took notice of how the public were against action in Syria, how MPs voted against it in Parliament which resulted in Obama following the Uk, The main issue for Moscow is that water to the Crimea was cut when Moscow annexed it, since 2014 the water comes on twice a day for 3 hours at a time (There has been a short respite as the Russians… Read more »
Trust me, NATO does not want a war in Ukraine, I work with them very closely
The parallels with Operation Barbarosa are startling and look what happened there! The UK believes Russian field hospitals are in evidence, thus signaling preparation for action. The only possibility is a temporary pullback whilst Western leaders beat a path to Putin’s door, a situation that must please him greatly? I am sure NATO will give Russia some concessions in order to de-escalate the saituation.
We can only hope Putin is “marching his troops to the top of the hill, to march them down again”. i.e. posturing to gain concessions. Some Russian extremists want “New Russia”. This is from centuries ago when Russia gained the coastal strip all the way to Moldavia. That was when Catherine the Great, founded Odessa. If you look back that far, then Turkey has a claim to that land. Or Britain ask to get back Menorca. If we had adults in the room, both East & West, a bit of “real politic” could sort this. i.e. The 2 Eastern provinces… Read more »
The only person likely to succeed as peacemaker is Macron.
Macron is too distracted by the coming election.
Possibly. Chance to position himself as saviour of Europe?
Russia and France have been close for some time, hence the Mistral contract, even though they cancelled it, it was only from US pressure. Two nations that will sell anything to anyone are France and China
..or Putin, when he send his tanks back to barracks.
Whilst I can see the appeal of this seemingly easy solution I do have misgivings about the thinking around ‘letting people decide’ what country they want to be in. So people can force a sovereign country to give up its land and it’s resources regardless of any previous international decision.For example It allows countries to sign any old piece of paper knowing they can revist later on- and allows the application of strategic influence to subversively makes changes. The border was drawn up when The Ukraine left the USSR so just because Putin want to exert pressure doesnt mean it… Read more »
You can also sway the vote, by moving in more people to the area who have a similar belief.
Over the last century, many borders have changed. Does it always have to be by warfare, or can citizens decide by referenda? Thinking of the velvet divorce, Slovakia splitting from the Czech republic. A few sad sighs, but no violence.
Letting the people decide has to be the way to go. The NI peace settlement has been set up such that if a majority of people in NI AND a majority of people in the Republic want a united Ireland then it will happen. A similar arrangement needs to be negotiated for Donbass.
Sounds eminently sensible, but it wouldn’t give Putin the immediate win he wants. Alas this will end badly for some, most likely with the Donbass region in Russian hands and more token sanctions against them so western leaders can seem tough.
I think what Putin craves is ‘respect’ and the Minsk agreement being implemented. Ukraine needs to bend.
Meanwhile I see Boris Johnsons is intending to sign us up to a tri-partite security pact with Poland and Ukraine. Fancy going to war if Russian invades Ukraine? Delusions of grandeur.
When I was a boy, my mother liked afternoon tea in a hotel in Guildford. The porter was Polish & she asked if he ever went back. He said no, as he came from Lvov & the Soviet Union had annexed that from Poland. Now it is in Ukraine. Would modern Poland stand by & let Putin grab Lviv/Lvov? I doubt it.
Yes, it’s complex. Just as Russia thinks Crimea and Donbass should be in Russia so Poland believes the west of Ukraine should be in Poland. Ethnicity and religion combine to define culture and sense of identity. The population in the west of Ukraine is catholic, hence the agginity with Poland. The population profile in Crimea and Donbass is 50% atheist 50% Russian orthodox.- the church services are in a Russian dialect: these areas ‘look like’ Russia. Ukraine is a religious country. This is the root of the problem. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46768270?link_location=live-reporting-story To retain the support of the Russian people Putin needs to… Read more »
I don’t have an impression that Poles ‘believe’ the west of Ukraine should be in Poland, or want it to be. They ‘wouldn’t mind’, sure, but there’s hardly any widespread and strongly-felt nostalgia for the ‘borderlands’. Some Polish population (or what was left of it post-1939/40) from current w. Ukraine moved west even by end of WW2, in fear of their lives, and the rest were repatriated right after WW2, in the similar fashion to what happened to the German population in German-held territories of East Prussia, Pommern and Schlesien. That said, people are easily manipulated, and any smooth-talking politician… Read more »
i’d rather not no. I’m probably too old thankfully! I’m sure it wouldn’t be a mutual defence pact, more a way to sell them stuff.
It will become a European war, by default. Why should it be the Ukrainians having to appease all time?
They shouldn’t. But we have to be clear on what we mean by ‘Ukrainians’. In 1921 the Protestants in the 6 counties didn’t feel themselves to be Irish so 2 ‘states’ were established in Ireland. 100 years later and after many appalling atrocities we have a fragile but workable province within the UK; which has committed to a united Ireland should a majority decide they want it. Russia and Ukraine need to agree something similar. In my opinion Donbass is not an issue of sovereignty so much as democracy. Putin must be made to concede the principle of a (… Read more »
Reality check. You are right. I should have checked the history better. The people of the Ukraine did vote overwhelmingly for independence in the 1991 referendum..
There was even a majority for in Crimea. Apologies. I need to wind my neck in. 😟
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum
Its Putin who needs to respect this result.
No one should be ‘bending’ to this bully.
See my other posts. If we want to avoid bloodshed there has to be compromise; which is a sign of strength not weakness. What is required is something along the lines of the NI peace accord
No its not a sign of strength at all – He has already annexed Crimea & he is now trying ot extert his influence over another sovereign country under the distictly tenuous auspices of protecting his Western Flank form NATO. As I have said I do not agree with this ‘will of the people’ bullshit.. Ireland is eminently different to the Ukraine issue and to compare the two is just not valid. . It would be like Irelands Taoiseach amassing troops in Southern Ireland and threatening the UK in order to acheiev its aims..If it wants to retain any semblence… Read more »
Granted Crimea is a difference. It may well be that the situation has gone to far. But we do need an de-escalation strategy of we are to avoid a bloody war. Unlike NI where the US was acting as a peacemaker there is no credible mediator. Both protagonists need to agree a ‘peace process’ managed by a trusted mediator. Ireland or France are possible candidates.
Even Churchill said “jaw-jaw is better than war-war”. Might give time to ask ex Warsaw Pact nations now in NATO, if they have any old, but still working Soviet era munitions that could be given to Ukraine.
The Czechs & Poles are ahead of me. The Czechs have given Ukraine some 152mm ammo. The Poles have supplied their Manpads.
It is very difficult to tell what will happen this month or the next with regards to Russian and Ukraine. The Russian troop movements to the North and East Ukrainian border, along with the amphibious ship movements to the Black Sea. Significantly ramps up the pressure on the Ukrainians. As to intents and purposes these look like preparations for an invasion. Furthermore, the increased armaments and munitions being given to the Separatists can be seen as only a bad thing. But also means that they can be proactive in they fight against Ukrainian forces. The incident in Kazakhstan must be… Read more »
Xi may have asked Putin not to do anything until the Winter Olympics are over.
Why? Are the russian medal hopes ‘otherewise engaged’ and Xi doesnt want his best men similarly distracted 😉
Putin held off invading Crimea until the Sochi Olympics were over. Dictators like to bask in the glow of Olympic glory, whether Hitler, Putin or Xi.
Perhaps Xi wants to invade Taiwan at the same time to split NATO forces !
China does not have the forces to invade Taiwan at the moment, it is 96 miles of water to cross.
Strangely that is almost certainly true.
Good reading, thanks. The Raspututsia has always fascinated me, it stopped the Germans as well as any T34s.
Those T64s are getting long in the tooth (even with the upgrades)
I agree they are getting on a bit, but the 122mm smoothbore can still make a mess of things. The effectiveness of the T64 doesn’t really matter, as its very presence will still requires an ATGM or MBT Fin round to knock out. We and the US have sent Ukraine a bucket load of Javelins and NLAWs from our Army stockpile. Which has inevitably reduced the numbers that our troops could use on Day 1 and 2 of any conflict. How quickly can those UK stocks get replaced, I think is the more pressing question? In a similar stance the… Read more »
Entered service in the mid 1960’s. Pretty sure the Ukraine ones had a number of major upgrades
“Deploy an increasing number of Russian forces to the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, making them bargaining chips…”
That would be the end of Minsk process.
And Russia would still get a pile of sanctions heaped on top, and reinforcement of forces on Eastern Fornt. There would then be a justification for Ukraine calling on the International community to help remove those Russian forces from occupied territory, e.g. Kuwait 1991.
I think the NATO club is much more focused on China now for the same reasons it was created against the USSR. Russia is only in the game still due to its terrifying stock of nuclear arms.
China will wobble because of its huge debt. Developer Evergrande owes at least $300 billion. High speed rail owes $950 billion. Local Government owes at least $4 trillion.
China is outside NATO’s sphere of interest.
China’s missiles have the range to reach European NATO Countries.
Whilst I fully understand aspects of Russia’s point of view what realistic threat are the token Nato forces along its western borders? Nato and the West would never attempt to invade Russian land mainly as they couldnt without ending the planet and its argument of Nato suppressing its Nuclear capability is hollow at best, what % of Russian territory borders Nato states, 5-10% at most? I think Putin has actually over stepped the mark here, Russia’s economy hugely relies on the EU for a source of income and he is risking damaging that relationship very badly, despite Germany’s best efforts.… Read more »
You let Putin get Ukraine, he will want more, it will feed the monster. He may start with a small slice, but to imagine it will end there is fanciful. He wants to build the new Soviet, he wants his legacy. If the US blinks, and it looks like it, we could be stumbling into a European war. I hope I am wrong.
The problem is that the West is in a replay of the Sudetenland. As Western leaders and publics have no stomach for standing up to the dictator militarily, they are left trying to find some way of deterring or appeasing him,. He is already in serial breach of international law, by occupying and de facto annexing 4 territories by force, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdniestr and Crimea. It is eerily reminiscent of Hitler seizing Saarland, occupied Rhineland, Austria (by grey zone tactics) and Sudetenland, while the West did nothing but waffle. If we accept some deal where Donbas gets autonomy, it… Read more »
If we accept some deal where Donbas gets autonomy, it will be no time at all before it decides, following a dodgy referendum, to secede and join Russia. methinks this is _exactly_ the plan (backed by those thousands of Russian passports given away, not for nothing). And hey, if it works in Ukraine, why not up the game and try the same with Moldova? And the Baltics? Their Russian minorities have also been given the Russian passports… Obviously, the lure of migrant work in Russia is stronger in eastern Ukraine than in Moldova or the Baltics, with EU wages on… Read more »
If they do invade it will be at high cost to both sides, this could be a political own goal for Putin, it will achieve nothing, but if he ‘wins’ with the talks, it will only empower him. I have a couple of Russian friends and they are told it’s NATO making this all up for US publicity on the media.
If Putin invades it will probably come right after the end of the Olympics. I’m sure the Chicoms told him they wouldn’t be happy if an invasion occurred while China was center stage.
What this does show is the total irrelevance of the test defence review and that conventional assets likes tanks, planes and boots on the ground is still just as needed today as they were yesterday.
The further draw down of the Army should be reversed, the entire fleet of challenger 2 should be upgraded to 3 and should be accelerated . The RAF should be further increased with the full buy of F35 and backed up by Retired Typhoons replaced by Tranche 3 with advanced AESA radar.
Clearly 2% of GDP needs to be raised.