Where have the Challengers Gone?

Only a few months ago the UK promised to supply 14 Challenger 2 tanks
to Ukraine, a move which helped persuade other western nations to
supply their own tanks to aid the fight against the Russian invasion.

Challenger tanks have been in Ukraine for some months now.

Since then the floodgates have creaked open, albeit sometimes slowly,
and parts of the UkrAF have been re-equipped with NATO armoured
fighting vehicles, most notably German-built Leopard 2 tanks, donated by
various European countries, and American Bradley infantry fighting
vehicles.

Written by Lt Col Stuart Crawford,  a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk

This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines. 

The equipment from the west has been sufficient to equip up to 15
Ukrainian brigades, each of perhaps 3,000 personnel or more and about
250 vehicles of all types. These brigades are considered to represent the
Ukrainian operational reserve, ready to exploit any breakthrough of the
Russian defence lines if and when it happens.

Ukrainian soldiers have also been taught how to operate their new
equipment and trained in the western way of war, in combined all-arms
operations where the various arms and services combine to best effect.
We now know that some of these brigades have been committed to battle,
if only by the photographic evidence of Leopard 2s and Bradleys
languishing burnt and forlorn in Russian minefields. A significant number
of these abandoned vehicles, however, can and have been rescued and
repaired.

What we are yet to see, though, at least from open sources, is any
evidence of the Challenger 2s in action. They may well have been, of
course, and have managed to survive unscathed so far, but I doubt it.
They are just as vulnerable to the mines and UAVs which seem to have
taken out some of the Leopard 2s.

We have seen other British-supplied vehicles in action, notably the Alvis
Stormer tracked vehicle which carries the UK High Velocity Missile
(HVM) which has proven potent against Russian helicopters. And in a
more sombre note there are photographs circulating showing British
Mastiff armoured troop carriers destroyed on the battlefield.

But no sign of the Challenger 2s yet. The BBC’s defence correspondent,
Jonathan Beale, who is in Ukraine, Tweeted recently that he had asked

two Ukrainian generals in charge of operations where the tanks were and
was told they didn’t have them. They must be somewhere else,
uncommitted so far.

I don’t think we should read too much into this, though, for there could be
many reasons why they haven’t seen battle yet. They could, for example,
be allocated to a formation that hasn’t been committed, or perhaps their
different logistic and training requirements may have slowed down their
deployment.

Who knows?

In fact some people do know. Since beginning this article I have been
informed from two sources that the British tanks are training with a
UkrAF airborne formation. This unit is also equipped with the US Stryker
and German Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). None of these have
been seen in battle yet as far as I am aware.

Plus we shouldn’t kid ourselves that the 14 British tanks donated to the
UkrAF are a significant addition to their combat power; they’re not,
sufficient only to kit out a weak-ish squadron-company group given
sufficient mechanised infantry and supporting arms. Their true value was
the symbolism of the gift and the subsequent galvanising of other
European countries into similar action.

President Zelensky reportedly asked the west for 500 tanks, and I think he
may have got 300 or so. He might have been better advised to have asked
for 1,000 in the hope that he might just get the 500, but we’ll never know.
We should also note that Britain’s donation here has reduced our
pathetically meagre number of tanks down to 134 which might be
deployable, plus a slack handful of others in training and trial facilities.
This is far too few for a country which seeks to be a recognised regional
(ie European) military power, let along a global one.

We should be looking at a fleet of about 500; any fewer than that and our
armoured regiments will be unsustainable in the sort of combat seen in
Ukraine. As I have written before, the UK’s current 134 tanks might last
a week if we were lucky.

Matters will not improve either when Challenger 3 replaces our older
tanks. Planners are looking at a fleet of 148 which might begin to trickle
into service from 2027 onwards, although experience suggests that 2030
is much more likely.

Yes, Challenger 3 will incorporate a brand new turret featuring the
German Rheinmetall 120 mm smoothbore cannon, a gun that I and my
colleagues recommended be adopted way back in 1988 when the
Challenger 2 programme was in its infancy. Better late than never I
suppose, and there are other modernising enhancements to sights,
protection, and mobility.

With the prospect of Ukrainian Challenger 2s going into action soon
we’ll know how good they are and what they can do. But the UK needs to
sort out its tank fleet before it’s too late.