Recent flights by Russian strategic long-range bombers over the besieged city of Mariupol have drawn significant media attention, however they have been flying strike missions since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. 

On April the 15th, the Ukrainian MoD reported that for the first time during the war, Russian Tu-22M Backfire long-range strategic bombers had been utilised over the besieged city of Mariupol. Ukrainian officials previously reported that 90% of buildings in Mariupol had been damaged or destroyed during the war meaning all this destruction had been caused without the use of bomber aircraft.

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Russian fighter aircraft can carry many of the same munitions that bombers such as the Tu-22M can carry but bomber aircraft have a much higher payload and range.

However, the Tu-22Ms if they have been operating from their home bases in Russia, have only had to fly approximately 800km to Mariupol, around a third of their combat range. Fighter aircraft stationed closer to Ukraine have been able to conduct similar bombing missions and missile launches for the majority of the war in Eastern Ukraine and further West. 

The Tu-22M strategic bombers reportedly dropped large, unguided bombs on the Azovstal Steel Plant where civilians and the remaining Ukrainian soldiers are besieged and sheltering in it’s extensive Cold War era tunnel complex. While the use of unguided munitions may have been sufficient in this scenario, due to the plant being spread across multiple kilometres, it once again highlights the issues Russia faces due to it’s limited guided munitions stockpiles. This is an issue not just affecting the Russian Air Force but also, it’s Army who have recently resorted to using elderly Tochka missiles in Ukraine. 

Guided munitions allow aircraft to release their payload at higher altitudes and at greater distances from the target and due to the persisting surface to air missile threat from Ukraine, Russian forces have been regularly utilising air-launched missiles allowing them to remain in Russian airspace and relative safety during launch. However, their limited stockpiles of advanced weaponry has meant unguided bombs, many first introduced during the early Cold War, have been widely employed.

Two TU-22 aircraft.

These unguided munitions are imprecise and require aircraft to fly at lower altitudes to hit specific targets putting them in range of MANPADS (Man Portable Air Defence Systems), thousands of which have been distributed among Ukrainian defenders. Deploying these munitions from higher altitudes, outside of effective MANPADS range, increases the spread of these weapons, causing unintended damage and increasing the risk to civilians.

On March 5th as Russian forces advanced on Mykolaiv and Russian landing ships assembled in the Black Sea, Odessa and Mykolaiv were reportedly targeted by Tu-22M bombers. The appearance of long-range bombers over Ukrainian cities appears to be designed to spread fear among the population and reduce morale and resolve as a result of the destruction and losses, rather than introducing a specific capability as relatively small ranges are involved and only a handful of bombs are dropped during most strikes, something fighter aircraft are also capable of conducting and have been doing. An example of this would be the Tu-22M bomber strike on the Azovstal Plant, which was followed days later by a similar strike by Su-34 fighters which was publicised by the Russian MoD. 

While several bomber strikes have hit military or industrial targets, many more have hit residential areas causing panic among residents and killing, injuring and displacing civilians. The UK Foreign Secretary said on the 21st April that Russian bombers have intentionally dropped munitions on “civilian infrastructure, including civil government buildings, hospitals, schools and transportation nodes.”

 

The increased activity of strategic bomber over Ukraine, is likely also linked to the slow progression of the campaign so far. Russian commanders had expected a rapid campaign with limited Ukrainian resistance, with police units forming part of the invasion force and some soldiers reportedly travelling with parade uniforms. Mariupol in particular, has endured fighting for weeks and the presence of bombers over the city is likely intended as a show of force as Ukrainian forces continue to refuse opportunities to surrender.

We can expect to see a further increase in Russian long-range strategic bomber activity over Ukraine, especially in the east of the country in the lead up to the May 9th Victory Day Parade as Russia attempts to regain the strategic initiative after repeated poor performance so far. Bomber aircraft will be a key part of this as an asset to cause fear and destruction.

Callum
Callum
Callum runs the Open Source Defence (@OSDefence) twitter account providing regular OSINT-based updates on global defence news, in particular on the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. He has a keen interest in aviation and defence and has engaged in the OSINT community for a number of years.
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168 COMMENTS

    • Quite why aren’t we? They were dropping 3 ton Bunker Busters on the heroic people below: 2000 active and wounded soldiers, 1000’s of women and children.
      When are we going to dooooo something about it like we should have done on day – 3 and declared a no fly zone. USA and Britain were doing this over Korea and fighting the bastards then. Russia is a country of born cowards.

      • 2 words. Joe Biden. Putin waited until Trump was out of office and his old friend Biden was back. Just like the old days of Obama/Biden when they sat by and did nothing the first time he invaded Ukraine.

    • Unfortunately the “civilized world” is currently being lead by an old fool that has a hard time finishing a sentence without the aid of a teleprompter and admits that he fears Putin and WW3.

  2. there was visual evidence last week of these aircraft being loaded with rusty, 1950s era bombs- let’s hope this results in accidents.

    • There have already been multiple instances of ancient air-dropped munitions not detonating and having to be diffused. I believe a large one caused an evacuation near a hospital in a major city in recent days. I can’t quite remember which city. The issue with these, is that their age and the poor maintenance makes them very unpredictable and unreliable so very limited accuracy can be achieved and coupled with the seemingly complete disregard for civilians, I doubt an efforts are being taken to guide the munitions onto target (such as calculating crosswind, flying at lower altitudes, avoiding targets with high collateral risk etc)

  4. Russian heavy bombers over Ukraine – Why?
    What the author leaves out of his article is that the target for the Russian heavy bomber fleet is the steelworks which the defenders have fallen back to, under it lies a maze of underground tunnels built during the cold war to survive a nuclear strike. The normal bomb compliment of Russian strike aircraft such as the Su22, Su 34 are unable to penetrate the skin of such a redoubt and accessing my single brain cell I am unable to recollect Moscow showing off a bunker buster such as what the US has devoted a lot of time to, so all I can see here is Moscow dumping lots of dumb bombs in which get a result and the TU22 can carry a lot of them and seeing as the area is free from Ukrainian medium range AAA they can come and go as they please.

    • During the Tu-22M strike on the Azovstal Plant, released video only showed 5 bombs impacting. Strikes by Su-34s days later dropped a similar number of munitions however they may have been different types.
      I am not aware of any bunker-penetrating munitions being employed however there are claims circulating of very large 3,000lb+ munitions being readied and employed against larger targets.

  5. The resistance shown by these Eastern cities somewhat flies in the face of their supposed Russian allegiances. How on Earth does Russia think they’re going to hold these places? Is the plan to kill the local population and import people from elsewhere? I just don’t get the logic. I can imagine Russia suffering decades of armed resistance that eventually takes its fight into Russia itself. Its one thing to “de-nazify” a leadership, like removing Saddam, its another to pacify and subdue one third of a country that doesn’t want to be Russian.
    At least with Afghanistan we enjoyed low level support in key areas. The Russians seem to have angered even those Ukrainians who previously considered themselves Russian.
    Can anyone clarify this for me?

    • Well seemed to have worked in Chechnya. Took years and massive casualties and war crimes. As you say eventually you see blowback back into Russia eg the Theatre Attack, the School that got attacked etc. But it seems life is cheap in Russia no matter which side you are on.

    • Many people have casually exchanged pro-Russian and Russian speaking as being the same. Additionally, many previously pro-Russian officials in Ukrainian cities have supported Ukraine’s sovreignty and defence as a result of Russia’s actions.
      Ukrainian officials have repeatedly reported that thousands of Ukrainian citizens have been forcibly relocated to remote areas of Russia. I’m unsure on importing people to these areas after the war, but as Kherson has shown any occupation of limited areas will not be met by silence and a change of government in Ukraine is likely impossible at this point.
      There was an initial prediction that a Russian occupation would lead to a long-term resistance from locals however Ukrainian defences have held up with Russian forces (temporarily?) pulling out of the Kyiv region and significant losses despite their denials. While propoganda and media control has sheltered the Russian population from the failures so far, once the true scale becomes apparent we can likely expect significant domestic opposition.

    • The “resistance” in Mariupol is led by the right wing, nazi militia the Azov Battalion which recruits from the Ukrainian nationalist heartlands, who have an undying hatred of the Russians running all the way back to Ukrainian Nationalist support of the actual Nazis in WW2 (they were even more zealous in their persecution of the Jews than the German SS were).

      The defenders had free run of the City while the citizens sat it out in bunkers under their buildings, and they have now retreated to massive underground bunker complex under the steel plant in the vain hope they can rescued somehow.

      The “Eastern Cities” – especially those in the south east – are just the location of the battles, their populations are more bystanders than active participants in the battles.

      Ukraine in its current borders is a bit like Yugoslavia with bits added to it over the past 100 years from Russia, Poland, Hungary and Romania. The Communists added huge swathes in the 20th century, for example Crimea was only added to the Ukraine in 1954 by Kruschev.

      • Azov hasn’t been ‘Nazi’ since 2015. When it was formally incorporated into the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It contains Jewish and Muslim Tartar members and serves the Jewish President of Ukraine. Yes some of it’s members have extremist views as do some UK military personell. I would strongly advise you not to inform SAS, SBS, RM or Paras of the UK armed forces that they are ‘Nazi’ organisations because of that.

        • You clearly do not have a clue as to how those groups have evolved in reality since 2014.

          I sincerely hope that you are not accusing those esteemed British groups as having the same ethos and operating modes as Azov and the other Right Sektor operatives. If you are, shame on you and I hope you get a knock on your door.

          • ” ….knock on your door. ”

            Doesn’t work that way in a democracy. Perhaps if you and your Kremlin friends had your way though it would be different huh??

          • Right, that is the plan: when the USSR disintegrated around 1990, that was just a temporary setback, they have been trying to re-capture Georgia, Belarus, now Ukraine – they may have to slow down a little, if they get to the Atlantic coast, but the long term goal is to keep on until their western border is the Pacific Ocean, business as usual. Remember what Willy Brandt said, if we do not stop them at the Berlin Wall, we will not stop them at the East German border and we will not stop them at the Rhein. Slava Ukraini!

          • The Nazis in the Kremlin call themselves Communists instead. But don’t forget, Hitler and Mussolini started as Communists and just changed the name because they did not want to take orders from Lenin and Stalin. A totalitarian by any other name would smell as sweet. 😈

      • Can I ask how much do you get paid to Troll on western media sights? Is it a good job or do you wish you were doing something better and maybe not working for genocidal maniacs?

        • He’s paid in stolen loot. Nicked from poor Ukranians houses. To Russians a pair of shoes or some womens clothes are luxuries and worth looting peoples houses for and killing their owners in front of their children.
          The Russian army is a disgrace. Committing war crimes and crimes againat humanity all the while accusing the Ukranian people of being Nazis. Its so ludicrous its just madness. The only possible worthwhile solution is Ukraine continues to resist until Russia can no longer tolerate such high casualties and losses to military hardware. Then they might tuck their tails between their legs and slink off back to Russia with the stolen loot, kidnapped Ukranian slaves, raped women and abused children.

      • I think in WW2 the Ukrainian people had a ‘choice’ between Hitler or Stalin. They chose Hitler because he did not steal all their food like Russia did and left their people alone (unless you were a jew). So it is no surprise that Ukraine sided against Russia. Quite simply Russia was cruller to more Ukrainians then Stalin. So I suspect the majority of Ukrainians hated the Russians before this war and now I suspect the Vast Vast majority of the population hate them even more.

        • Agreed, many observers forget or don’t know just how and staying was to his own nation, or at least to those nations who were not ethnically Russian.

      • Yes well said… Hitler and Stalin were cut from the same stuff (evil) and Russia is now the new Nazi look-alike. If they act like them they might as well be Nazis.

      • Welcome to the ‘Other side’ of this forum, those of us who take a more balanced view of what is going on and why, and for sharing the baseless rubbish thrown at us that keeps some happy here. Good comment by the way.

        • Balanced view? You need to look at what Putin is doing. He will either be master of europe or deceased. How about that for balance? Who is the aggressor? We supported Russia in 1941 because Germany was the aggressor. This time its the reverse and Russia is the aggressor. Putin being an ickle man goes back 80 years to justify his neo nazi imperialism. Beyond sad.

        • Got to take what is said with a pinch of salt tho. You stated the Moskva had made it to port and had 50 injured crew multiple times when other were saying it’s sunk.
          I had asked for sources for where you get your info so i could see things from both sides. Can u give some, I’m genuinely interested

        • You don’t take a balanced view of anything Comical Johnski, you’re a craven apologist for war crimes committing Russian nazis. You defend nazis while throwing baseless accusations and smears at the Ukrainian nation. Crawl back under your rock.

        • Greetings Comrade! Heil Putin and his glorious special military operation.

          Now let’s all start goose-stepping together like good little CommiNazi Putinbots!

      • Azov started out as a right wing football supporters club, hooligan elements, then into a small militia group during the illegal Russian annexation of Crimea. Since they were officialy incorporated into the Ukranian army they have lost their extreme elements, some of their extreme insignia and are now fighting very well fighting the real Nazis, Putins fuxking useless military. They have shown that they will fight hard for Ukraine and have shown up the Russkie military at every level. Now the Russkies can only use old dumb bombs to try and flatten their remaining resistance. Typical useless incompetent Russians. The Azov will continue to fight and well done to them. Oh, and how many millions of “normal”Russians soldiers fought on the German side in WW2?

      • He is just another sad commentator with an agenda to push, same as JohininMK, kayaker and another saddo who’s avatar I have forgot….but as I have alluded to many times, one and the same as so many similarities between posts that they think we don’t notice.

      • DN wrote:

        The “resistance” in Mariupol is led by the right wing, nazi militia the Azov Battalion which recruits from the Ukrainian nationalist heartlands, 

        Regards that so called Ukrainian nationalist heartlands, it’s a huge myth promulgated by those with a political axe to grind. I’m not saying that the Ukraine doesn’t have a far right problem, but when looked at support for the far right of the political spectrum has never been an issue across the 24 Oblast (regions that make up the country. At the 2014 elections the far right polled the highest they ever in the country, that said only in 8 Oblasts did they gain over 5% of the vote and in only 2 of those did they go over 8% (but under 9%) The far right vote when shared out across the Ukraine after Russia had annexed the Ukraine and fermented a breakaway movement in the far east saw then achieve a mean % of 4.7 of the national vote.
        5 years later when the country went to the vote again only 3 Oblasts voted above 5%, and when shared out across the entire country the % vote for the far right came in at 2.15% of the national vote. Meaning that support for the far right had fallen by over half. Which explains how in 2019 out of 57 political parties (of which 6 are far right) out of 450 MPs elected, they managed the sum total of 1.
        https://i.postimg.cc/GtSLNfd6/22.jpg
         I’m not saying that the Ukraine doesn’t have a far right issue, that it has, but it like the IRA in Northern Ireland has used the issue of kicking out the invader in which to disguise a mafia operation Finally in Jan this year Al Jazeera wrote an article on the far right Azoz Battalion and they quoted their number as 900. 

      • DN wrote:

        Ukraine in its current borders is a bit like Yugoslavia with bits added to it over the past 100 years from Russia, Poland, Hungary and Romania. The Communists added huge swathes in the 20th century, for example Crimea was only added to the Ukraine in 1954 by Kruschev.

        And?

        If you want to quote history in which to excuse Moscow’s invasion what say you about:

        The land Moscow stole from Finland in 1940

        Kallingrad

        The Islands Russia took from Japan in 1945

        Northern Cyprus

        The huge chunk of Syria, France handed over to Turkey in 1939, in which to try and get Turkey on the Allies side.

        The list is endless and been an Indian giver is how not international diplomacy works

      • Quite, I know someone who was brought up in E. Berlin and remembers being taught to hate the Jews in kindergarten by the Communists! They are both as bad as each other IMHO. We are British we don’t do that stuff.

      • With the connivance of Patriarch Kirill Putin is trying to turn the clock back to 1686 when the Kyiv orthodox church was annexed by Moscow.
        As you say, Ukrainian identity goes back a long way. Ukrainians are clear sighted when it comes to spotting evil intent.

      • Even if that half baked rubbish you wrote were true, so what? Those people are Ukrainian, they have every right to be there and to defend their country. Whatever their political view or affiliation it is nothing to do with Russia .

        The only right wing nazi militias are the Russian and Chechen military groups that are running amok in parts of Ukraine murdering all before them.

      • From what I’ve read, the majority of the defenders are the 36th Marine Infantry Brigade, along with a few members of the Ukrainian Border and National Guards.

        It’s fair to say that some of the latter may be from the former “Azov Battalion”, which was integrated into the Ukrainian National Guard in 2014.

        After 8 years or so, I would guess that there aren’t that many of the original members in the successor unit, but who knows?

      • I think the hatred of Russian state originated from the farm collectivisation in the 30’s leading to mass starvation and deaths of millions of Ukrainians in a resulting famine. This drove many to sympathise with the NAZI’s who could have won in the east if they had granted some autonomy to the Ukraine and allied with them. Instead the Germans did the same and starved the Ukrainians too. Its a history/grievance like this that Fosters a meaningful Far Right response

  7. I see Russia is now spouting about the oppression of a breakaway region of Moldova.
    For those that still want appeasment of Putin in regards to Ukraine – what say you now.
    Those that still want to hide their heads in the sand over Crimea or fiddle while Mariupol burns.
    Too late …It’s coming – like a freight train…now is the time where those that see the writing on the wall need to take a deep breath and stand up to be counted.
    I fear for the next 5 years – but not standing against Putin now is only going to prolong the agony – its not even like the West is franticaly rearming as we speak is it.

  8. I suspect Russian ground forces have taken such heavy losses, that they are now letting the bombers take over.

    • The bombers haven’t taken over, a majority of sorties are still being conducted by fighter aircraft, their presence recently has just drawn more attention but they have been operating throughout the war. However, this is likely linked to heavy losses and limited gains and the upcoming Victory Day Parade.

    • We may be about to see whether the Russian ground forces can take it as well as dish it out: Biden just authorised another 72 155mm towed howitzers with towing trucks and several hundred thousand rounds.

      • Any suggestions as to how they will be able to make the 700 mile journey from Poland to the front (similar to London to Warsaw) when there is a diesel shortage and the rail system is under attack?

        Am I right in assuming that 40,000 155mm shells and propellant would weight about 2000 tons?

          • You can bet if it’s needed at the front it will get there.
            Still lots more is needed by Ukraine.

          • Agree its called trucks and tankers. Simple logistics. Something a Russian clearly knows nothing about seeing as your own logistics utterly failed in Northern Ukraine whilst trying to overthrow a democratic and soverign country’s government.
            I think Russia is about to get a very expensive lesson from a rapidly professionally developing Ukranian army.
            Slava Ukraine

          • Who cares, the NATO forces have excellent logistic professionals who would sort that out. Maybe your Russkie rapists should have tried it.

          • When fired 46.3kg (103lbs) for one M155 shell. I don’t know about before fired. That was a very quick Google search.
            Quick maths 1,852,000 kilos for 40,000 shells. 1852 tonnes. So even 10t loads is only 185 trips. 20t load 90 trips. Not that hard to move.
            Probably still lighter than all the dead bodies and equipment being taken back to the motherland.

          • No she is having a deeply cleansing salty bath to sooth her nerves after a few weeks on the frontline bombing defenceless civillians, killing women and children and generally committing war crimes.

        • The US are adopting a deliberate just in time strategy of providing ‘defensive’ weapons to avoid provoking mad Vlad. Note the artillery is towed not SP. Nevertheless providing US heavy weapons crosses a Rubicon. I do wonder whether they were provoked into it by Boris threatening to send AS90s.

          • In the days of 300km + range precision ballistic missiles I’m not sure 155mm aerially is really considered heavy weaponry or offensive weaponry anymore.

          • No indeed; it’s all relative I guess. That said; my understanding is that the 155mm will outrange the Russian 152mm gun and there are suggestions that the Russians may be running out of long range ballistic missiles.

    • When attacking a fortified location like an iron and steel plant I would suggest that something a wee bit heavier than a 240mm mortar shell or even a 500kg Iskander. The Russian AF is not taking over, they are supplementing the Army with some 3000kg bombs.

      • Suddenly the civvy troll is a military expert. As we are chatting any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine?

      • And Russia needs to face 50 years of sanctions as punishment. Make it a hole in the world with nothing going in or out. They are not fit to be part of humanity.

      • ” A fortified location like a iron and steel plant ” !?!?!
        I’ve been to Port Talbot and Scunthorpe and failed to spot the fortifications at either !

      • Fortified is something of an understatement. Its a bunker designed to withstand a nuclear strike. Vids today showed the defenders going down tens of flights of stairs and through multiple steel blast doors and through blast traps. The bunker rooms are massive and heavily reinforced with rebar concrete. Some 3k kg bombs will move the rubble around up top. They wont do anything that deep down.

        • Yep thats what ive just said. Not a hope in hell of dislodging or killing the steel works defenders using unguided, Non armour piercing bombs. Even a US airforce MOAB couldnt destroy these fortifications.

      • And for the record do you think a dumb bomb of 3000lbs with no guidance can hit and destroy tunnels under the steel plant that are. A. Under a steel plant. B. Buried upto 6 storeys deep and C. Encased in reinforced concrete and designed to withstand a nuclear strike.
        My assessment would be not a hope in hell.
        All the Russian airforce will acheive is destruction of the above ground steel works and little to no impact on these underground structures.
        Still feel free to drop tons of heavy bombs….as many as you like. NATO is grateful for Russia using up its munitions. Munitions you will struggle to replace.

  9. And still the UK won’t increase the defence budget. Surely someone can see the writing on the wall! 1938 again.

    • Spot on, and if Putin Joins up with the CCP, as they really want Taiwan. Things could get really nasty really fast.

    • Not really, Nazi Germany was the 2nd/3rd biggest economy in the world in 1938 staffed with some of the best generals in history and operating some of the most advanced technology and weapons the human race could muster. Russia in 2022 has an economy not much bigger than Belgium, with generals not able to perform even the most basic of military tasks operating with equipment that is 40 years behind us and much of it is barley functional. That’s before being subject to the gratest barrage of precision guided weapons ever seen in human history. They are now reduced to driving around in transit vans with Z painted on them. Somehow I don’t see them crossing the Rhine or making it to Calais.

      • I’d rather have a big stick and not need to use it.

        We need to be really careful with any assumptions being made about Russia over Ukraine. As economics matter much less when you are willing to use slaves. I’ve seen documentaries from years ago where the Russians had steel mills inside prisons and they were using forced labour to build tank hulls. We’re already seeing Ukrainians disappearing in to the interior of Russia they will probably end up as slave Labour.

        As for the tech those T-72 & T-80 are due to be scrapped in 2025 from what i’ve read and seen. The Armarta are also supposed to have gone into production this year. They may struggle with some gizmo now they’re under sanctions but they do have their mates the CCP over in China. The CCP will be probably very happy to help if they can get cut-price resources. Which will enable them to undermine western markets even more.

        The only lesson we can really take from the Ukraine IMO. Is the Russians are behaving like murderous genocidal b*****s that don’t give a flying f***. They will stoop to any level to get what they want. We’re already hearing rumours Moldova is next if the Ukraine falls.

        • The west is militarily strong because it’s economically strong and the main reason the west starting with the UK in the 18th century is economically strong is that it refused to spend money on military expenditure above what was needed to deal with the threat environment. The soviets and now China and the CCP are going the other way and spending money they don’t have primarily as a way of maintaining domestic political legitimacy. The west already has overwhelming economic and military supremacy beyond anything the Allie’s on 1938 could have imagined.

          In the middle of a cost of living crisis with government borrowing through the roof already if we start pumping significant sums in to military on the order of 1% + of GDP to deal with a military threat that does not really exist then we will either have to slash social spending primarily on the NHS and pensions producing political instability or increase borrowing and or taxes resulting in economic instability.

          The USA and to a lesser extent the UK has maintained military spending over the past 30 years at a sufficient level. What was needed was for other western powers like Germany and Japan to catch up. Now that’s happening the western democracies have an unassailable lead over Russia and China.

          • I should clarify I am in favour of a bit of a boost to 2.5% of GDP but that’s all I think warranted at present. Most of that increase should go on navel assets as it’s at sea from Russia and China that there is a real threat to us and our Allie’s.

          • I agree with 2.5%, maybe also a one-off payment of maybe £20 billion or so, e.g. to reverse army personnel cuts, upgrade all 227 Chally 2s and replace T1 Typhoons with T3s.

            Same in principle as Germany is meant to be doing but we don’t need such a massive one off payment as they are planning as our forces haven’t been allowed to wither quite as much as theirs.

          • Interesting points (although Im not sure I agree with Japan tbh) However there is a fine dividing line between the two and the last 10/12 years has in my opinion strayed too far South of that line , and that needs to be readdressed- immediately.
            GDP is in itself a wierd standard to use for many things but if we were to go with 3% GDP , the removal of the pensions sleight of hand Osbourne introduced, a more long term strategic viewpoint based on recent events and a complete overall of the farcical procurement procecss,then I think that would be good enough for starters .

          • Personally, I’d go with a rise to 3% + a £20 bill lump sum and then increase it to around 4% to 4.5% over the next 20 years.

          • GDP is a strange measure. The U.K. spends I think 11% of its government spending on defence. It’s such a higher percentage compared to the 2% banded around. GDP is unrealistic as you can’t spend 100% gdp.

          • to deal with a military threat that does not really exist

            Hang on a sec, let me get this right. Russia has invaded Ukraine it’s coming out now they want Moldova to. They’ve threatened Sweden and Finland with the same treatment the Ukraine is getting if they dare join Nato, so they could get hit as well. Putin has also threatened to Nuke NATO if we cross certain lines with aid.
            This is the same Putin that’s stated time and again he wants to reinstate the old USSR borders. Which means he wants half of Europe, as he thinks it belongs to Russia. Putin who not long ago signed a major deal with the CCP about a uni polar world.
            The CCP who want to re-establish the tributary system which means them taking control of Loads of the surrounding countries. Which includes Japan, Korea, The Philippians, Vietnam, Laos, Bhutan, Nepal. Chunks of India, Malaysia and Indonesia.
            The BAD guys just like Hitler when he wrote Mein Kampf are literally telling us what they are planing to do. Get your head out of the sand mate and look at what’s going on.

            We’re already at WAR, they’re waging economic war against us. They’re waging a Psyops WAR against us to destabilise our economies and our social cohesion. By directly funding the likes of Extinction rebellion and this green madness. That and the crazy professors brainwashing kids with all this white guilt multi-gender fluid incestuous, pedo enabling woke crap.

            Seriously look up BLM read their manifesto. They want to end capitalism, they want to end the family unit. They want us to turn into an anarcho-communist state. Then look up 3rd wave intersectional feminism, them lunatics want us to all be androgynous, gender-fluid and for incest and PAEDOPHILIA to be normalised.

            That crap is being pushed in our universities by professors funded by China (CCP).

            ——————————-

            I’ll stop their as there’s a lot more I could write, but this is getting way to long.

            Trust me we need to spend a lot more on Defense, and we need to slash wastefull spending to pay for it.

          • I agree with most of your points but only partially with your conclusions. Militarily Russia is a joke. We shouldn’t be frightened we should be ridiculing. On the culture war your spot on. We need to confront what’s going on in our schools and universities but that’s a different kind of fight.

          • The money i want to spend on defense comes from not funding the culture war and other waste.

            Look at all this crap going with the migrants coming over on dingies. We’re literally funding via the foreign aid budget the NGO that are getting these people into Europe. We’re then funding the legal rights lawyers that are stopping us from deporting them. Then on top we’re paying billions a year to keep them. We’re just continuously shooting ourselves in the foot with this one.

            We’re also funding all these lunatic diversity officers in every council, every policing authority and every government ministry. Same with all this green bollocks.

            The education department needs a right kicking and it’s budget slashing. The arsehole are now going to spend billions putting facial recognition cameras in school so kids can automatically pay for their meals that and be watched in exams.

            When i was a kid we paid cash at the till to pay for our meals. Or used a little registry book that cost a couple quid at most. Why in the Fook are we spending BILLIONS on cameras and facial recognition software to do the same job that cost a couple of quid. That’s just bonkers.

            Then you’ve got bleeding HS2 it’s costing quadruple the price for half the track. We’ve just gone through covid with everyone working from home and using zoom. Why in the fook are we spending £100+ bill on HS2. When people can use Zoom instead of commuting.

            I swear to god I see money being pissed away left right and centre. Yet my taxes are going to fund fooking windmills and lazy cheeky foreign fookers living it up in 4* hotels i can’t afford to stay in.

            If we’re going to have high taxes, the least I want out of it. Is this country being able to stand on it’s own two feet and look after itself. Instead of having the rely on untrustworthy c**ts like Germany & France and even the US when the dems are in charge.

            Note: sorry about the rant beers kicking in and I’m not used to it as I don’t usually drink

          • I dont think Russia will “win” in Ukraine. The best they can hope for is to capture large areas of the east at significant military expense and then struggle to hold onto their gains. As for Finland and Sweden. Seriously? I think those 2 countries could invade Russia and win with conventional forces.
            Finland and Sweden both have large, modern and effective militaries. They would be no pushovers. Russia would have to call up all their reserves and every available fighting man and woman to surpress them. They just cant do that scale of warfare. Especially with crippling sanctions hitting home.

          • There won’t be money for defence, education, pensions, NHS, etc. unless UK politicians & bankers wake up & start reshoring industry to the UK.

    • They already did, by a considerable amount.
      More is needed of course. I wonder how much of the increase vanishes into black holes and R&D.
      There need to be some uplifts here and there with the extra funds which we are not seeing yet, hopefully they will come.

  10. I heard today that Russia has damaged or destroyed $60bn of Ukraine’s infrastructure. Is this mostly by arty or bombing from tactical aircraft? This must mean that Ukraine lacks effective Counter-Battery and/or effective anti-aircraft capabilities.
    The West must supply more of these capabilities.

      • We are supplying about 80 AS90s, and the US is supplying some towed 155mm arty. Aren’t the French supplying some CAESARs?

    • Indeed Graham. The only ones being restrained are Ukraine by our Rusia-compliant fears. Russia is doing whatever it likes as the west trembles. Send Ukraine aircraft & whatever is needed. Send our aircraft & troops too to push Russian forces out, close the skies to the Russian air force & restore Ukraine to the Ukrainians.
      I wonder how months munitions NATO has/had in hand to fight a war, seeing as Ukraine is desperate for resupply after 2 months. The “Peace dividend” is really biting us on the backside now but we’re still in denial.

      • What you are suggesting Frank is in effect the start of WW3. Is that what you really want? The US and NATO have refused to be drawn in. I suspect a few spreadsheets are open in NATO logistics looking at exactly the munitions issue you raise.

        • Ah ,The subsersive scare tactics again – “Don’t try and stop him or get involved cus it will blow up in yout face”….
          That has been Putins ploy all along and I for one don’t buy it.

        • Russia is the aggressive partner and I think Europe and western leaning countries need to supply Ukraine with everything they can. It’s war and war is ugly. World war 3 will not start from nato side even if nato forces rolled up from Chernobyl to Odessa.
          What has surprised me is country’s like India etc and the way some of there media reports on the war. Supporting putin. The comments you can read on YouTube and other news sites is disturbing in support for Russia and hatred for Ukraine and the west.
          I had a friend in Indonesia asking me about the nazis in ukraine and how russia had to invade to stop the genocide in Donbas committed by Ukraine!
          10 minutes later of explaining the situation and he said he felt stupid for believing some of what he had been told.
          Told him to look at a map where russian invasion has happened and why is that needed to protect Donbas. Also look at Ukraine map pre 2014 to now and see if you can work out who is the aggressor/invader.

          • This should not surprise anyone, India is an ultranationalist country who’s media revels in any for of hardship or difficult inflicted on foreigners. UK is pretty much the number one country they hate but most of the western world is on their hate list. I was shocked to see Indian news casters openly calling for nuclear strikes on Pakistan after they shot down an Indian jet a few years ago. India is no friend to the west and Biden and Boris should wake up to that fact before it’s too late. The country has zero to offer the west and its rise will come at as much of a cost as chinas. There is a perception that some how because it’s a democracy it should be our ally however this has never been and never will be the case.

          • I think the plan from the west is to play on the China threat. India seem to be trying to curry favour (sorry) with Russia in exchange for influence/mediation with the Chinese

          • India has been subject to a lot of anti British hate in recent years. That’s incredibly sad. By 1914 Britain had long realised India should be independent. I knew people who had lived in pre-Independent and post independent India and who had a respect for the people and never said anything bad about the people or the place.

          • So is seeing India as bastion of democracy and just like the west misguided or wrong?

          • Realpolitik works both ways. Why should India or any other non-Western country feel any moral responsibility to support the West when the West has such a long history of supporting genocides and genocidal dictators in the non-Western world if it suited their interest.

            I mean just post WW2 off the top of my head it had no problem supporting Maoist China against the USSR, the Khmer Rouge government against the Vietnamese, the Taliban against the USSR, the genocidal Pakistan government in Bangladesh and a whole host of Middle Eastern dictators.

            The western media coverage of the Taliban when they were fighting the USSR was instructive of this- islamic fundamentalist become “freedom fighters” if they are fighting against someone the West considers any enemy. The Nazi Azov regiment are also now freedom fighters even after being guilt of literally crucifying people just a few years ago. Heck I bet the West would even support ISIS if it felt it would be beneficial to it.

        • Ahh the Russian nazi propganda comes to spread more fear. Its possible to fight a limited war in a 3rd party country, not directly threatening Russias existence, without full on nuclear ww3.

          Its time our leaders stopped allowing themselves to be bullied by nuclear blackmail.

          Putin needs an almighty kicking to show him he can’t just roll over any border he feels like. Might as well be now rather than later, it’s going to need doing without doubt.

        • Ah Pooptin fan club boy. Your posts have had a reduction of pro Russian comments ever since it has been shown your army contains thrives, rapists, nonces and murderers! Where is your hurrahs for your invasion? Where are your justifications for the illegal invasion of Ukraine etc etc? Another sad sad troll who is now trying to keep a low profile while the world laughs at your shite incompetent military. And as for spreadsheets, don’t worry NATO has enough munitions and kit to supply the Ukrainians for many many years yet. Its your third rate country Russia which is suffering.

          • Thrives, aka thieves alas in the west we have have what we call predictive txt when we access the Internet….yes the Internet, something now no longer allowed in Nazi Russia.

          • Also. NATO can afford to replace munitions donated to Ukraine for newer and better weapons manufactured entirely from within NATO. So its a closed loop. We dont need to worry about resupply of advanced munitions. Unlike Russia the rich west can afford to donate as much as Ukraine needs.

        • If Russia didn’t want WW3 why did they start it?
          But no, I don’t want WW3 or MAD, just to stand up to & stop Russian aggression before it becomes WW3. Backing off & allowing Russia to get on with it is the worst mistake we’ve made since WW2. Russia under Putin is simply reviving Russian imperialism. Nazi is as Nazi does. We see what Putin is doing.

        • Really WW3. and Russians want their country and the whole world to become a nuclear wasteland do they because of a madman tin pot dictator in the kremlin. Do us all a favour. Take out a pistol shoot him in the head and start afresh with a moderate sensible leader who doesnt want Russia to be led into oblivion.

      • Phase 1 was manpads like javelin and nlaw. Next move was to xfer ex Soviet kit the Ukrainians know how to use from former Warsaw pact countries to Ukraine. e.g. T72s. Now the UK is supplying vehicles like Mastiff and Stormer and the US is supplying 155mm towed howitzers and switchblades. Seems to me there is a NATO strategy of just in time escalation to frustrate Russian advances while avoiding provoking Putin. Meanwhile sanctions are hitting Russian ability to replenish their MLRS type artillery. I think this NATO strategy will continue. Ukraine will cede ground and then start retaking ground and gradually being trained and using more western kit.

    • I think this infrastructure is deep strikes against railways, bridges, warehouses, factories. The idea is to cripple the Ukraine economy and degrade morale, sort of bomber Harris but with cruise missiles launched from subs in the Black Sea: not much notice. I think the S-300s get a lot of them but not all. History in Germany, UK and Vietnam suggests you can repair and keep going. They need lots of S-300 systems.
      Sinking the subs would be good but I can’t see how they could do that.

      • I would think that the $60B is the total damage done by both sides with by far the most done by Russia. Its probably fair to say that just about all of Ukriane’s MIC is in ruins including all its repair plants. The main assembly points for ‘gear’ coming over the border and the main marshaling yards in Lviv are also destroyed. Ukraine has done most of the bridge destruction, the Russians preferring to destroy roads and especially railways that link to the bridges. Very little of the electricity, gas, water, telephone networks is damaged. Fuel distribution, both military and civil, from refinery to local tank farms is destroyed with only around a third of its petrol stations still in business, the ones on major roads.

        Very few missile strikes have come from submarines, they are difficult to reload compared to ships, missile batteries and aircraft. Some even come from missile boats in the Caspian. The difference with Harris is accuracy. Only one cruise missile wreck photo has been released by Kiev, basically they are getting through. There are likely to be lots of S-300 left as the Russians are only reporting destroying one every couple of days.

        • The Russians mostly preferred to kill and murder people then run away when the fighting with decent soldiers starts.

        • Oh and there’s enough fuel for the Ukrainians to start their tractors to harvest the abandoned Russkie kit. Fucking pathetic group of wannabe soldiers the world has ever seen. Absolute laughing stock

        • It’s a poop show. Country destroyed and for what? Whatever the rebuild bill is, it will happen if ukraine can hold off the invaders.
          It’s going to keep getting destroyed until war stops. Looking at Mariupol and other cities they are totally destroyed. Such a waste. I can’t even imagine how much hatred someone would have from a country that causes that to there neighbourhood.

          • Yep it really is soul destroying isn’t it. We have unfortunately become accustomed to seeing destruction in The Middle East and have to our shame become somewhat blase towards that.Now it’s encroaching in Eastern Europe it becomes far more visceral,we’ve not really seen the like since The Bosnian conflicts of the 90′.Ironically if this resolve had been show towards Putin in 2014 we wouldn’t be here now. Let’s hope the scale of the destruction brings those realities home to more people before it’s too late.

          • FFS you are the joke of this site. In the land of the Nazis headed by your Putin, your sources are your head sheds who tell you want to say, what to read and what to believe!

        • It will be nice to see all the seized Russian assets and various central bank reserves being used for the reconstruction of Ukrainian infrastructure. Ironically, every time a Russian commander directs a strike against Ukraine, he’s helping to write that cheque.

          • Agree that is precisely what should happen. All the corrupt oligarch Putin cronies slush money should be held onto then handed over to Ukraine for reconstruction once the damn war finishes.
            A footnote would be that the money goes to Ukraine after the Western allies have been reimbursed for the defensive equipment given. I dont see why UK and USA and Poland etc should be out of pocket because of Russias war. Whilst Germany and other useless EU allies sit back having done very little and have accrued little to no expense.

  11. Interesting that the UK will supply Challenger 2’s to Poland to free up their stock of T72’s to be transferred to Ukraine. With the US announcement on supplying M777’s to Ukraine the west seems to be getting more and more serious about the war in Ukraine. Very good news.

  13. because they’re the only bombers they still have flying(?), the rest having been shot down by the Ukrainians 😂

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