It is challenging to keep track of Russian and Ukrainian casualties because Russia and Ukraine have the incentive to conceal those numbers. On the other hand, open-source reporting has resulted in some estimates that are most likely to be within a reasonable range of the actual figure.
Many estimate Russia has lost around 2,000 tanks, many of which Ukraine has seized. The most recent offensive alone is estimated to have captured around two dozen tanks, which is sufficient for Ukraine to equip two tank companies.
This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines.
If accurate, the above represents approximately 66 percent of Russia’s modern tank forces. The figure, of course, does not include the 20,000 old tanks that Russia keeps in storage. Evidence suggests that Russia’s tank problems have reached a crisis level. There is confirmation that T-62s are now in combat in Ukraine.
Russia has become one of the largest suppliers of equipment to Ukraine
According to some estimates, Russia has suffered the loss of around 4,500 infantry fighting vehicles, which accounts for approximately 34% of its total force. Ukraine has also shot down two hundred fifty of Russia’s most cutting-edge aircraft, though this only accounts for about 18% of Russia’s aircraft fleet.
Additionally, 1300 pieces of artillery, both self-propelled and traditional, have been captured, abandoned, or destroyed. This figure accounts for approximately 23% of Russia’s total artillery stock.
As for troops, Over 90,000 Russian soldiers have died, cannot be accounted for, or have suffered such serious injuries that they are unable to return to service, independent Russian media project iStories reported, citing sources close to the Kremlin.
Morale is getting worse, as are Russian results
Russian morale is at an all-time low, according to reports. Of course, this is not Russia’s only problem, but it is a problem nonetheless. Almost from the moment that military operations began, the Russian military was suffering from low morale. In retaliation for the high number of casualties they were suffering, one tank unit even ran over the legs of their commanders.
Following its defeat in the Kharkiv Oblast, Russia has initiated a significant nationwide recruitment effort to compensate for the number of soldiers it lost in battle. However, Russia’s partial mobilisation is indicative of the country’s realisation that it cannot generate the manpower necessary to achieve its goals in Ukraine.
On the front lines at home, sanctions imposed by the West have been criticised, even within the West, as being ineffective, even though Russia’s economy is beginning to show signs of severe deterioration due to the sanctions.
Russian energy has boosted their war effort
However, this was only possible due to Russia’s extensive use of its currency reserves to artificially prop up its economy. These reserves are slowly being depleted, and the reduction in energy that Russia supplies to Europe as a result of both self-imposed energy restrictions in Russia as well as Russia’s deliberate attempt to exert pressure on Europe by cutting off gas flows has resulted in the drying up of Russia’s most lucrative source of revenue. Energy sales have been the primary factor in keeping the Russian economy afloat.
As a result of the steep drop in sales to Europe, Russia has been searching for alternative buyers, and those alternative buyers are now responsible for determining prices. For example, both China and India are stocking up on low-cost energy from Russia at prices they set and then turning around and selling it to other countries to make a profit.
German tanks, American jets, Canadian training and British intelligence
In contrast, Ukraine is gradually gaining the support from Western nations that it has required from the very beginning of its political crisis. Western governments are, for the most part, deciding whether to provide Ukraine with heavy equipment like tanks and aircraft.
The United States has given its approval for Ukrainian pilots to receive training on the F-16 and F-15. And it’s inevitable that the Ukrainian air force will be flying Western fighters within the next six to eight months.
Britain, as many of you know, continues its weekly shipments of everything from anti-air missiles to ammunition. Additionally, the UK is erring ongoing intelligence information to Ukraine through the use of frequent surveillance aircraft missions to the region.
Germany is currently debating whether or not to provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks. Additionally, a growing number of calls coming from within the United States could result in approval to provide Ukraine with Abrams tanks. I’m not joking. This would be huge.
Alongside the US and UK, Canada is even helping to train Ukrainians to defend their homeland. Other countries, are, of course, helping in a multitude of ways.
Get to the point, is Ukraine winning?
Is it fair to say that Ukraine is winning the war? Sorry for the vague answer here, but yes and no. Let me explain. Wars don’t count as won until they’ve been fought and won. Various factors can potentially bring about a significant shift in Ukraine’s circumstances. Ukraine may be offered less support due to the growing sense of exhaustion among some Westerners regarding the situation in Ukraine.
As a result of being cut off from Russian supplies, Europe is already preparing for a harsh winter, which an energy shortage will compound. Moreover, this harsh winter may cause a significant shift in European public opinion against maintaining support for Ukraine. Let’s hope it doesn’t.
The momentum needs to be maintained
Despite this, the United States, the United Kingdom and other significant players maintain their quite solid commitment to Ukraine and appear poised to provide that country with even more technologically advanced equipment. The assistance of the United States and the United Kingdom alone may be sufficient to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine’s favour, but as the old saying goes, the more, the merrier.
Despite all of the above, Russia maintains a military that remains a significantly capable force despite being clumsy and inept. So don’t let their failings make you think Russia is a paper tiger. It isn’t.
Even a full-scale mobilisation is unlikely to win the war for Russia at this point because it would take nearly a year to organise, train, and equip new forces—time that Russia does not have. Moreover, Ukraine had been underestimated at almost every point since the start of the invasion, with many analysts and Western governments expecting the capital to fall within days. It didn’t fall. It pushed back.
Ukraine can win, but it isn’t a sure bet
However, there is a genuine concern that people will overestimate Ukraine’s capacity for success in its objective of retaking the land seized by Russia. The offensive operation in the East is still meeting with a great deal of success. However, the element of surprise played a significant role in the success of that offensive, and it is improbable that the same level of tactical surprise can be achieved again.
But I was wrong about this before, and I hope I am this time too. The conflict will inevitably devolve into a drawn-out slugfest in which Russia will play the heavyweight role. The only way for Ukraine to push Russia back toward its borders is for the West to maintain and significantly increase its support.
Ukraine is not necessarily winning, but it is a long way from losing.
The way I see things, is Russia (read that as Putin) has realised that it has bitten off more than it can chew and unable to blame the poor quality of the Russian forces it instead blames:
NAZIS
NATO
Terrorism
In which to excuse its shortfalls. The thing is even with the Ukraine pushing back Moscow in the North, around Kharkiv and potentially Kherson, it still has a mountain to climb in removing Russian forces from within its borders . The only way I can see that happening is if Putin is replaced. On that note the last week of missile attacks on Ukraine by Moscow has allowed Putin to believe he is punishing the country, add the UAV attacks today and the potential sale of 100s of SRBM from Iran, and I think that Putin is going to try and devastate as much as Ukraine as he can(resulting in the West having to rebuild Ukraine at cost) before pulling back to much more easily held territory and calling it a day.
So the answer to the question from me, is No, Ukraine isnt winning the war, that said it is holding its own
Note:
All of the above gets thrown out of the window, if Putin and his bestie Lukashenko decide to have another bash from the north (Moscow has started stockpiling troops inside Belrus)
But as we all know the blokes a fruit loop and nobody knows what he thinks.
oh and here is the perfect example of what I meant by the poor quality of Russian forces
Functional test required on anti tank mines.
Functional test carried out
Satis
News to me about Ukrainians training on F16,F15s like 🤔
I don’t think they are.
That funding willingness from Congress was sabre rattling in order to apply pressure to the President. I’m nor aware that he has done it yet.
Ukraine’s economy has been so badly hit, I am concerned whether they can hold out. Germany did pretty well for 4 years in WW1, but eventually the 10th Cruiser Squadron destroyed their economy, and that was it.
Given the austerity the West is facing due to Bond Market shenanigans, plus winter, I worry the West will not keep up the needed support. Can we keep this going?
And at this time, some unfortunate countries humiliate themselves by giving drones to Russia.
The problem with Putin is , he thinks his weapons are better than everyone else’s when in fact the only thing he has that is scary to the world is his hypersonic nukes( and they are not that much of a worry at the moment ). Putins weaponry is outdated which is why Ukraine are able to push back hard, the weapons supplied by the UK and USA are a lot more advanced than Russia’s.
Notice how the UK and USA supplied Ukraine with weapons to counter Russia’s tactics and then Russia changed tactics the UK and USA supplied weapons to counter that too. UK missiles can be dropped on a 5 pence piece and USA artillery is quite precise too not to mention the anti aircraft weapons supplied by the UK and USA. If the USA do provide UKraine with f-15’s and f-16’s then i would say goodnight Putin and then Germany provides its tanks too and Putin should run for the hills.
Think about it , Ukraine will gain all the airspace with the American fighter jets and bombers , and they will gain ground fast with the use of German tanks and if USA provide Abrams too then they will gain it even faster.
Russia has no real fire power to combat German and USA Tanks , they have no answer to fighting against F-15’s and F-16’s then you have the ammunition from the UK along with its deadly accurate missiles.
If all 3 countries carry on with supplies and they supply what they say they are going to do then i think Putins days are numbered, But war is war and strange things can happen, so its not over until the fat lady sings so to speak.
For interesting analysis, can I recommend the series of videos on the Perun channel, who is very much into looking at supply chains and logistics?
This is one I enjoyed from October 8, which is an analysis of mobilisation / force generation for Ukraine based around an extended interview with the former chief of the US Army in Europe – LTG Ben Hodges (Ret.).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWq-ngg7JC8&t=7s
Perun’s hour long briefing each week has been well done on each topic he has covered. I’ve enjoyed everyone of them.
As has been said in the article Ukraine keeps surprising us with what it manages to accomplish. Just now it seems to be how far can they push Russia back while taking acceptable casualties. Ukraine definitely inflicts more than it receives.
Agree, definitely worth the time watching them. Some of the comments are good as well.
Unlike yours. Anyway any up to date comments and opinions on the current tactical situation on the ground and the ongoing Russian recruitment measures? Surely you have an educated opinion on those? No, thought not.
Give it a rest. The guy obviously has a screw loose. Suggesting he buys a screwdriver won’t fix the problem. You are cluttering up the thread with comments not worth reading.
Nope, my call, thanks for trying to control the board. As long as trolls exist then they need to be challenged.
I’m sure we all hope that the Ukrainian forces can press on and get their full access to the Sea of Asov back as soon as they can, then Crimea and finish off the Kerch Bridge sometime.
Medals for all of them!
Apparently the West thinks orchestrating an insurrection against the elected president is sometimes a good thing. While most people seem to have developed goldfish memories, I haven’t. Russia and Ukraine really deserve each other, I see no reason to be destroying the economies of central and Western Europe for this.
Do you have any particular elected President in mind?
Hopefully not Mons. Macron 😎.
Absolutely man 👏🏻 The 1st and 2nd most corrupt nations (official) in Europe deserve each other. Alas the mob with their goldfish memories really know very little about the reality of Ukraine.
Pressure a ceasefire and end this disaster instead of fuelling a proxy war that does not benefit the people.
🏴🇬🇧
Spot on.
Some “official” stamp of disapproval doesn’t mean we allow one country to invade and take over another. Those with goldfish memories may not remember when counties like Greece and Spain were subject to coups d’état and how much more stable they have become since joining the EU: the Ukrainian aspiration. A country isn’t a basket case, and its citizens to be thrown to the wolf just because it hasn’t yet sorted out corrupt practices that were the legacy of the attacking country in the first place.
We have to support Ukraine to the fullest and not play into a Russian agenda of “they are both as bad as each other”, whether on such and such an “official” index or by any measure. Ukraine needs our support and all talk of let’s wash our hands of both of them isn’t even handed. It’s pro-Putin.
Stop playing into the Russian narrative, please.
What is “to the fullest”? How far are you willing to gamble this nations security for Ukraine? As you can see, I don’t hide or obfuscate my name here. I served this country, I was born here and I have children here. Sometimes I get the feeling many of you don’t have the same connections. I’ve already been questioned as to whether I’m some kind of Russian bot because I’m not genuflecting at the altar of Zelensky. Many people here seem to think the worst possible outcome is Ukraine permanently losing some territory. To me the worst possible outcome is Putin or some other desperate loony flinging nuclear hellfire to the land my children live in. I’d see Ukraine conquered a thousand times before I’d risk that.
Well said but keep it up and take it from me, the real attack dogs around here will be after you. My sin is that I have tried to the best of my ability to give an alternative view to that portrayed by the press and believed by many here. That the Russians can’t be a bunch of wasters with crap gear to have achieved what they have against what was the largest, best trained and equipped military in Europe supported by the best intel and comms systems there are. But I’ve now kinda given up and just put up occasional posts like the one at the end of this thread.
Not what you said a few months ago on a regular basis, and if you condemn this illegal invasion and justify in an adult way your reasoning then maybe we will consider you just informed as opposed to a troll, but you wont, as you cant. The same as you cannot, post any derogatory comments about Putin. You are a troll, a monitored account operating to push Nazi excuses and propaganda. You know that, we know that but you are unable to say it. Simple really.
It might help you to understand my view if you were to read this. Whitney, like me is not a Russian troll he just has a different take on events. I’d be interested in what you think of what he says happened in February. https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/some-of-us-dont-think-the-russian-invasion-was-aggression-heres-why/
You make wearing a leash almost fashionable. How about answering the many many questions multiple posters have asked you? Anyway, so you and “whitney” have decided an illegal invasion of a sovereign nation was aggressive? Wow. Anyway in ref to your previous post in regard to “largest and best trained and equipped military in Europe:
JohninMK
10 months ago
Reply to dave12
I agree totally with DM. As I have already posted, if Russia goes in, which it will only do if provoked, it is likely to be over in hours with no invasion. The militia in the Donbas, fully trained and equipped, will be capable of sorting out the UA after that rain of death. Our QR forces wont have even got to Brize.
Reply
dave12
10 months ago
That will teach me.
Uneducable troll boy! You have a script!
You love to repeat the fact you served, many here did, some still do but we don’t repeat it so repetitively to justify a post! Maybe make a comment and a post without trying to sell it as a “vet”. Cheers
How many times have I said that? Once? Were you in the airborne perchance? Post arm and plug socket you mystery meat larper. Cheers.
Yaaaaaaawn, please hold the line your call is important to us!
Sir yes sir! The cringe is strong with you.
There comes a time when appeasement and fear have to be put to one side, and people have to stand up to bullying and aggression! While many of your points are correct in regard to Ukraine, on occasion it’s a case of taking a bite of the shit sandwich. Of course many will fear for the future, certainly for their kids, and having spoke to mine, they also agree. Maybe that’s a conversation you should have with yours?
As for the using your correct name as an avatar, and being a vet, neither makes your point more relevant than others who don’t, or aren’t. And yes, in this case, people who parrot the oft repeated excuses for Putins invasion of Ukraine are in fact supporting his aggression. As an example can you justify Blair’s invasion of Iraq? No, it’s not possible.
Just thought I’d give you the full fat answer prior to handbags being drawn.
Russia has nukes, regardless whether they are winning in Ukraine or not. They have repeatedly threatened non-nuclear nations over the last ten years.
With mutually assured destruction in place, that is a red herring, somehow. But let’s discuss it, anyway.
If you think through your argument “to the fullest”, your unwillingness to confront Putin has to end with Russian overlordship. You’ll only have that much territory to exchange for your perceived security. But you stop short of that, so I would argue, you are either still believing in Russian goodwill, or trying to tell that to yourself, or promoting the idea for some other reason.
This is the appeasement trap so many have fallen into over the last century. Either Putin is a madman, or he is not. Either he is trusted, or not. Thinking, Putin would ethnically cleanse parts of Ukraine and wouldn’t do this to other countries is pure wishful thinking.
As I feel, that you would now invoke RTs explanations on the sources of the conflict…. IMO, Putin knows completely well, that his country is done in a 21st century powered by renewables. The Russian core of his empire is collapsing, demografically. Something, he and his fellow Kyrill are fundamentally obsessed about. Russia today is a shiny surface, with an industry falling into disrepair. I was there, trust me.
We are not allied to Ukraine though. One square inch of NATO territory should trigger a response that ensures nobody ever suspects the veracity of that treaty again. The reasoning I have for not wanting to be put at risk for Ukraine are the same reasons Ukraine (or Russia) would not and have not been invited to join. They are corrupt, impoverished, backward potato patches. To be quite honest, I would have kept NATO as the original nations plus Czechs and maybe the two Northern Baltics. The Central European nations should have forged an unaligned defence treaty of their own. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania and the Balkans should have been a sufficient bloc to deter adventurism.
We did ‘guarantee’ their territorial integrity then let Russia invade. We owe them. They are doing the dying we should give them the tools and be willing to suffer a bit.
The people who sign such agreements owe them, not me. They are the same class of people who won’t be doing any suffering. I strongly suspect they are making a fat wedge out of the whole thing with their consultancy roles for LM and BAe stock.
You should raise that matter with Vladimir Putin. He began this war.
Actually the west has a very specific need to combat aggressive authoritarian regimes. Whatever you may think we live in a multi polar world on one side you have liberal democracies that don’t play well with authoritarian regimes on the other authoritarian regimes that don’t like liberal democracies.
You can bury your head in the sand but one of these blocks will gain hegemonic advantage over the 21c and likely transition back into a uni polar world and I would rather that uni polar hegemonic power was a western liberal one and not some form of far right corporatists system ( which is the other realistic option).
My point is, Ukraine is far away from a Western liberal democracy. Everyone suddenly acting like they are “one of us” because Russia is the invader is completely deluded. Zelensky has shut down the free press and banned political opposition. Nobody can explain to me in what way post Cold War Ukraine is this new Camelot I’m being sold daily.
I think that’s important to answer and look at some facts around the Zelensky government not so much about what is thrown around:
democratic mandate:
1)spring of 2019 with a mandate from 73 percent of voters—rich and poor, urban and rural dwellers, Ukrainian and Russian speakers—across all regions of Ukraine.
2) Then Later parliamentary elections and established a one party majority in the Verkhovna Rada—something that none of Ukraine’s previous presidents had enjoyed. It is perhaps a mark of Ukrainian voters’ intense desire for change that they gave Zelensky and his party, Servant of the People, a generous mandate, amounting almost to carte blanche, to fix some adamantine problems and set Ukraine firmly on a westward orientation
Manfesto:
(1) peace in the Donbas, (2) economic betterment for ordinary Ukrainians, and (3) a noncorrupt and responsive government.
Actions:
December 9, 2019, meetinvof President Zelensky with his counterparts from Germany, France, and Russia offered some prospect for peace. By August 2020 the level of shelling on the front lines of the temporarily occupied territories fallen dramatically and several POW swaps with Russians and the separatists controlling those territories had taken place, and a partial pull-back of troops had some circumscribed success.
first cabinet launched a number of reforms aimed at economic growth, good governance, and responsive politics.
Difficulties:
constant conflict the with older corrupt systems, politicians and oligarchs, and the COVID-19 pandemic forced Zelensky to change his policies and slow the pace of reforms.
Due to increases pressure principal decision-making role moved to the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine beginning in October 2020. President Zelensky and the senior members of his team began running major decisions on issues of domestic politics, international relations, and security matters through this body, in lieu of trying to get resolutions passed by parliament, then legally enforcing those decisions through presidential decree.
President Zelensky and his team also redefined their foreign policy, returning to and even honing former president Petro Poroshenko’s pro-Western policies.
The Western realign ( and root cause of the Russian invasion)
conflict with Russia was only increasing, so the the administration restored looked to three aims:
1)the issue of annexed Crimea to the center of Ukraine’s foreign policy. A new international forum launched in August 2021 to counter Russia’s claims to Crimea and insist on the rule of law, has partially fulfilled this task, and there was a notable uptick in Western democracies’ public support for Ukraine in the conflict with Russia.
2)And 3jensure Ukraine’s fast integration with the EU and with NATO. On these tasks, the results were rather meager: neither organization opened its doors to Ukraine’s membership in 2021
Due to these aims and re-alignment of Ukraine while at the same time the west was both blowing hot air ( talking up support) while appearing to appease Russia ( refusing to engage in conversations around EU NATO members, while Russia was still illegally occupying a part of Ukraine). Russia increased its threat to launch a wider war unless Ukraine capitulated its sovereignty.
Ukraine has not banded political opposition or the press what it has done is protected itself as any western nation under an existential threat would and has in the passed. We ourselves as bastions of freedom have band political movements that are an existential threat especially in time of war, but also in peace time. We have also limited press powers where needed ( Im old enough to remember the ban on the voices of Sinn Fein in the 1980s and 1990s).
So lets be very clear this was a democratically elected government, with a mandate to move to the liberal west, that tried to do so and was invaded by the brutal region authoritarian power that did not want it to have the freedom to move to the West.
In truth Ukraine is the battlefield but the war ( in a geopolitical sense ) is between the west and the authoritarian regimes that resent its hegemony and wish to become the power in a unipolar world ( it will be the west or the Corporate state authoritarians that win and dominate the 21s century…I no the side I’m picking).
LR wrote:
That’s a common trope banded around which is used as a stick to beat the West. Now before I go on, I must point out that until 2017, I was in Army officer recruiting and that my TRF (in black) read RMAS, it doesn’t make me any better than the next feller, but one of the things we used to do on our testing weekends (Friday to Sat) was test our candidates on their knowledge of current world affairs by having them write an essay on a subject of our choice. One such subject was the Ukraine. So in order for us to understand what was happening we (instructors) had to know more than our attendees,
Information we gleaned from the Armys extensive library a lot of which we could access on DII, some hard copies and of course from news articles from around the world via the net. Here is one such hard copy example (Note I have removed names of universities)
https://i.postimg.cc/L8cmcYSn/1234.jpg
So the Ukraine.
When the USSR broke up 2 side by side nations Poland and the Ukraine went their respective ways, Poland the much poorer of the 2 headed west towards the EU, and Ukraine remained wedded to Russia. By 2010 Poland had a GDP 4 times bigger than the Ukraine. The Ukrainian people seeing this wanted what their neighbour had and demanded closer links to the EU, in which to better their lot, their President at the time Yanukovych promised to do as the people demanded and that he would go ahead with the Ukraine Association Agreement with the EU. However, his very close links to Moscow started to reveal themselves when:
1) On 26 November 2013, he admitted that Russia had asked it to delay signing the EU association agreement and that it “wanted better terms for the EU deal” with Russian President Vladimir Putin (the same day) called for an end to the criticism of the Ukrainian decision to delay the association agreement, and that the EU deal was bad for Russia’s security interests
2) On the 28th November 2013 President Yanukovych stated that Ukraine still wanted to sign the Association Agreement but that it needed substantial financial aid to compensate it for the threatened response from Russia, and he proposed starting three-way talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the EU
3) The EU rejected trilateral talks and asked Yanukovych to commit to sign the Association Agreement, which he refused to do.
4) That so called compensation that Yanukovych wanted was $20 billion, The EU only offered $838 million in loans on conditions that the Ukraine make major changes to it regulations and laws which would bring in more in line with the democratic West, Putin instead offered $15 Billions, gas at mates rates and no changes to Ukrainian law, so Yanukovych went with Moscow. The People who knew they couldn’t trust anything that came from Moscow, protested and kicked out Yanukovych, they did that, not the US or the EU, but the Ukrainian people who simply wanted a better life.
Good point Farouk. That gets us to where we are today. Ukraine has very clear cut lines for the people to side with and the largest majority of the population side with the current government, fight for there country and are proud to do so.
Those who support the other view point have sided with Russia and are providing support for them. (It’s not that many and they aren’t in as high spirits as Ukraine side)
The buck stops with Ukraine. If it falls, next it will be the Baltic’s, Macedonia, Poland and so on.
Ukraine may not live up to your ideal of a liberal Western democracy, but its government was democratically elected, and it strives for the Western European standard of transparency and plurality. It is facile to attack them for wartime measures that they have enacted to help protect their institutions.
Russia on the other hand is a mafia gangster state, where a small cabal of Siloviki control and pocket the entire financial wealth of the nation. It is the only metric in which Russia leads the world, endemic corruption. That’s before we even mention Russia’s shameful history of warcrimes, gulags, genocides, political repression and assassinations, arbitrary arrest and detention, stagnation, mass murder, wars of aggression, WMD use. That’s not an exhaustive list.
But , yeah, to some, it’s all Ukraine’s fault. 🤷🙄
Any election since the “completely spontaneous” colour revolution cannot be legitimate. Ukrainian forces have been in combat against the Donbas region since and there is no way free and fair elections were held under those circumstances. Truth be told, the very large group of Ukrainians who voted caution regarding the EU/NATO we’re almost certainly sidelined by these actions skewing any further results. I don’t support Russia in any of this, but the fact is Crimea is gone forever, and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions need a fair vote on self determination. Russian forces must be removed from any territory they seized from Feb 22 though for that to happen. Zelensky yelling about liberating “all territories including Crimea” is ridiculous and fantasy.
In what way can their election not be considered legitimate? Because of the colour revolution? Using that metric do you also consider any election held in Poland, Latvia, Slovakia etc since the fall of the Berlin Wall as illegitimate? Slurs about Ukrainian politics being Western inspired ‘coups’ are a well worn trope of Russian sympathisers who also throw in bullshit about nazis as well.
Many seem to think that Ukrainian history began with the events of 2014. It started way before then. In the mid noughties, President Yukschenko who was campaigning on a modernising, pro European agenda was poisoned by Russia. Not the last time they tried that approach. Russia has been a malignant influence in Ukraine for a long time.
Ukrainian forces have been in combat with Russian forces since 2014 in Donbas, that’s a distinction that needs to be made , you made it sound like they were in combat against the Donbas. That isn’t true. Russia sent its proxy forces and militias into the region because it couldn’t accept the will of the Ukrainian people in 2014. Or since. Ukraine was perfectly entitled to defend against them. It is their land. I’m sure you’ll recollect the Russian militias demonstrating their friendly intentions by downing a civilian airliner and butchering the crash site. With friends like that huh ?
The world and the UN doesn’t share your view on Crimea, no one bar a few crazies recognised the annexation. Donbas is part of Ukraine, end of, but I would expect that if such a free and fair referendum on self determination were to be held as you say, the overwhelming view would be towards Ukraine. After all, in any country or region that has experienced Russian rule, the unanimous opinion is always the same : NEVER AGAIN.
There’s a lot to sort through in this unhinged rant, but I’ll have a go. The Maidan protests were almost certainly encouraged at the least by the West, just as Russia has been sowing trouble with recent divisive issues in our politics. The comparison with the fall of soviet communism in Central Europe is asinine but I never considered the imposed regimes as legitimate if that’s what you are asking.
The “bullshit about Nazis” was not perhaps as fictitious as you like to think and was in fact reported on extensively by Western media prior to these hostilities. I believe it was horribly overblown as everything regarding the “far right threat” is however.
As for Russia being a strong and frequently malign influence in Ukraine, 100% yes. It is whether we like it or not smack bang in Russia’s sphere of influence and they have been extremely clear with increasing levels of force about the West encroaching into it. Ukrainian forces have indeed been fighting Russian and Russian backed local forces for some time now. That is why electorally the well is poisoned to the point we can no longer get a true reflection as the civil populations are boycotting each other’s polls. I’m not going to address the UN as that is a clown show, but there is no consistency in the Western approach unless you believe Serbia was right to fight the KLA in Kosovo.
Again, I have no “side” in this, but still cannot get a good answer as to “why Ukraine?”. It just looks like more utterly schizophrenic foreign policy by the West running into a clearly advertised but unreasonable policy by Russia, and I want no part of the huge financial grift that is occurring thanks to it.
Like you, I also would prefer to have nothing to do with the financial shitshow that this war has created for me and everyone else. No such luck though, but it’s nothing compared to the trauma that innocent Ukrainian citizens are experiencing, and that can be laid firmly on Putins tab. Why Ukraine you ask, you could equally have asked why Poland to nazi Germany. They do it because they can, because they think they can get away with it.
Putins war on Ukraine has nothing really to do with Nato, or nazis or bio labs or nuclear weapons or any other flimsy pretext. It’s because of his fantasy version of Russian history and his warped belief that Ukraine should not exist that has us here. If the west had turned a blind eye to his invasion of Ukraine what do you think the chances are that he would have rolled up the Baltics, Moldova, Romania etc? Pretty high I’d say.
I don’t think it’s asinine to compare political events post the fall of the Berlin Wall with the colour revolution. Both were popular expressions of public opinion, and if you think that the colour revolution was orchestrated by Western agencies then what makes you think the events of 1989 to 1990 weren’t helped along by the West? It’s not like they hadn’t spent 40 odd years pushing against the iron curtain.
I wasn’t implying that you were a Russian sympathiser, but from my unhinged rant as you described it, you seemed to concur with much of it.
LR wrote:
From the tone of your letter, may I presume you subscribe to the falsehood that Moscow went into the Ukraine to defend Russian speaking people across the 2 breakaway regions from getting shelled. In fact, that is what Moscow used as one of its excuses (as well as Nazis,bio-labs (funny how they have found any in the places they reported in the areas they occupied) NATO expansion etc)
Anyway, I am only going to tackle the former Moscow cited that over 14000 people had been killed by Ukrainian shelling between 2014 and 2021 quoting actual UN figures (actually the figures are from the OCSE. Who in 2014 with the Ok from Moscow, Kyiv and the UN set up shop in the disputed areas of Eastern Ukraine and recorded everything regards trouble. They have a website where from 2014 to feb 2022, they report on a daily basis everything that went bang (link here)
So that 14000 death toll, what is never mentioned is that, it consists of deaths from both sides of the argument and can be broken down as:
3404 Civilians from both sides (which includes the 298 deaths from flight MH17)
4400 Ukrainian soldiers
6500 Pro Russian Rebels
and can be broken down chronologically as per the chart below) As you can see the vast majority of deaths are from 2014 and 2015 and from ther signing of Minsk 2 deaths have fallen sharply with the vast majority of deaths since 2016 as a result of deaths and injuries by mines.
As i mentioned above as part of my job, we (my team and I) have to make ourselves aware of what was happening inside the Ukraine from 2014 onwards and when I see people parrot the Russian line that the Ukraine started this by bombing their babushka, it simply tells me they cant be arsed to read up on the subject at hand or even carry out a basic google.
Futher to the above the human rights ombudsman in the Donetsk peoples republic on their russian based website quoted these figures for deaths at the hands of the Ukraine
which even at 5059 is almost a good third the total as quoted by Moscow.
F my man you always construct sensible posts which I largely agree with so don’t take this as me attacking anything you’ve stated.
I’m just curious to see what your thoughts on the Asov battalions the likes of the the Dnipro and Aidar units funded by Igor Kolomoisky? . What about Andriy Biletsky the proudly fascist Asov leader who once pledged to “ lead the white races of the world in a final crusade against Semite led untermenschen”
what about the neo Nazi C14 and it’s leader Yehven Karas ?
What about Maksym Marchenko the former Aidar battalion commander accused of war crimes in the Donbass being appointed regional administrator of Odessa earlier this year?
I could go on and on about these unsavoury characters and their wee gangs of thugs all now officially incorporated into Ukraines military and security establishments. My point being 99% of everything in here is characterised as Ukraine squeaky clean saints and Russia satanic death cult. Anything negative about Ukraine brushed aside as Propaganda yet everything claimed about Russia is “Truth” ?
somebody rightly pointed out to me previously in here propaganda in war is on both sides yet 99% of the folks in here clearly believe only one side of the story.
Sad to say they know nothing about the region ,history or will even have heard about the individuals I mentioned. All they can shout about is what the msm tell them as nobody really wants to read or investigate a little deeper.
You undoubtedly don’t fall into that category but I just wonder if you are blinkered on this subject. I’m not naive enough to think HM Gov don’t have an agenda when it comes to any of this or the so called truths they proclaim as gospel.
it’s murky and the bullshit is laden thick from both sides and I just don’t think we are getting the whole truth.
My last on this is many in here (rightly) pressed that wee scamp I wont name on condemning Russia for invading( he still hasn’t ?) but on the flip side will anybody including yourself condemn the Nazi Asov battalions and their actions and disgusting ideological world views ?
🏴🇬🇧
Yes, you do support Russia (even if you don’t mean to). Anything that equates Russia and Ukraine in this conflict supports the Russian narrative. Comments like yours are gold dust to Putin. It implies that there are people in this country who will give up supporting Ukraine, and encourages others to do so. Talk to the man or women on the Clapham omnibus and you’ll find the vast majority are dead set against Putin and are totally unwilling to ditch Ukraine.
I recently went to a Yorkshire artist’s Chernobyl retrospective showing in South London, and talked to a lot of new people outside my bubble. The images naturally brought up discussions to the current war, the nuclear power station held by Russia and so on. I listened carefully trying to gauge opinion. Nobody was against the UK policy of defending Ukraine. Nobody made the argument that this was a “quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing”.
Your comments are so on the mark of the Russian narrative, it makes me wonder who you are. A total of 9 posts in UKJD, including the several in this thread. That’s a different number from the Luke Rogers posting earlier this year and using a different email.
Ah, there we have it. “You are either with us or against us”. “My anecdotal polling shows 100% support for Ukraine”. “How’s the weather in Moscow?”
I don’t support Russia, but I am definitely opposed to what you’re selling.
*Edit- typo
I’m sure you’d agree that Ukraine can’t survive without military aid, no? If we stop military aid, Ukraine will have to capitulate to Putin. To that end Putin is contructing a narrative to persuade us to stop arming Ukraine. I admit your English is excellent and you don’t sound like a typical Russian troll, but whether you like it or not you are singing from Vlad’s hymnsheet.
And if you want to know why Ukraine rather than Russia it’s because Putin annexed Crimea, has promoted insurrection and civil war in Ukraine for the last seven years, and started a full scale war this year, deliberately targetting civilians and infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools and power stations.
Putin attempts to degrade western democracies, where Ukraine wants to become one. He pays people to consistently attack the UK electronic infrastructure, interferes with our democratic processes through manipulation of social media, attacks UK company websites with the aim of stealing information, attacks undersea cables, has murdered UK citizens on UK soil, and…… Ukraine hasn’t.
Putin is not only a clear and present danger to Ukraine, he’s a clear and present danger to ME! That’s why.
Luke, you might find this view of interest. https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/some-of-us-dont-think-the-russian-invasion-was-aggression-heres-why/
We all know Putin started and financed the war in the Donbas, John. Claiming that sending tanks into Kyiv or Kherson has anything to do with saving the poor folks of Donetz or Lukhansk is such a stretch that I think you can do better.
Can you maybe join some friends for a session in a Milton Keynes pub and block out a better justification than that? I look forward to hearing what you come up with.
Fucking garbage, weak effort at justifying a Nazi Russian invasion of a sovereign nation. Pathetic even for you. Come on pal make more of an effort or you will find yourself, certainly this time, on that low flying turret display team.
Hi Luke, this might be a nauve take, but to the shutting down of the press and freedoms needed to done to some extent in this “war situation” on their own lands. You can’t expect the same freedoms as in peace time. I also think it’s a matter of security for the President and his closest personnel in minimising any “leakages”, “protests”, etc, to those that want to assassinate him and undermine his efforts to lead and unify the country against the Russian invasion. You’d hope that once this conflict is over that some semblance of democracy will return. That’s Ukraine’s choice and will probably be conditional for further aid from the West.
I don’t think the economies of Western Europe are getting destroyed. If the support for Ukraine was withdrawn the economies won’t suddenly bounce back.
Up until 2013 I would of agreed with you about the leaders there but Ukraine has went through a massive change since euromadian and invasion of crimea.
Now it’s not perfect but Ukraine has probably made the most progress in becoming part of the European community and fixing the wrongs in its country.
They have my full support for as long as they need and stay the direction they have been travelling in
Ukraine definitely has better morale and motivation, as long as the West continue to supply quantities of so it era ammo and western artillery weapons and ammo ukraine has a chance I’m not sure western tanks would make that much of an impact, as it would require a new logistics chain and mega training issues they would be better purchasing 320 t80ud tanks from Pakistan that Ukraine had prev built, providing Pakistan with much needed foreign currency and ukraine withs tanks they can maintain and use, also in the same vein Iraq has several hundred Btr4 made in Ukraine. Air defence is probably the hardest issue to solve as the quantity required would be enormous from long range to point defence, unless there could be a way of fitting Amraam or similar to a Mig 29. Poland might have that expertise
Excellent article. Assuming the facts and figures are correct, this gives a concise overview of the equipment and manpower details.
I honestly think it’s what you mean by winning the war. In reality you never really win a war that is only fought on your own territory. You may successfully defend you nation’s sovereignty, but that’s a long way from winning.
probably the best example of this would be the difference between WW1 and WW2. In effect World War One had the aggressor exhaust themselves and had an armistice forced on them, there was no crushing defeat and infact the nation that really lost was the the french 3rd republic. The second world war was a clear victory in which the aggressors were not just brought to the table, they were crushed, there ability to wage war was destroyed as were the governments which enacted the aggression.
so even if Ukraine is able to fight off and remove Russia from its occupied lands it not really a victory in the sense that Ukraine will have Totally defeated Russias ability to fight and removed the risk ( government of russia).
so can Ukraine gain a tactical victory in this campaign, yes can it defeat Russia as a threat to Ukrainian sovereign no ( a strategic/geopolitical Victory).
I do fear that any “Victory” for Ukraine will just be a temporary reprieve, unless the West is willing to force an ongoing geopolitical conflict ( as per the Cold War) until russia is crushed via a containment, isolation policies and economic leavers and it’s government destroyed.
But I think talking about victory when a war is fought on your own soil and it’s your own infrastructure destroyed is always going to be a bit pyrrhic, especially if your enemy’s infrastructure is left intact, giving them future geopolitical advantage…this is one reason why in effect for a true Ukrainian victory to occur this has to be a russia- liberal democracy conflict ( in the geopolitical sense and not armed conflict) and not just Ukraine fighting off an aggressor on its own.
Jonathan, me thinks you are overthinking there were clear victors in WW1, with reparations and in WW2 with imposed constitutional pacifism.
maybe WW1 was not the best example, but it’s more about the issue of the country in which the war was fought is always coming out worse even in victory, unless it also has some way of destroying the other nations infrastructure and ability to come back another day. Probably the better example would be the napoleonic wars….with mr lose a few whole field armies and still pop back for a few more rounds.
WW2 essentially ended in the complete destruction of the aggressors to such an extent it changed their national characters. Germany and Japan were literally turned to dust to the point there was nothing left of the nations that started the aggression.
Its the interesting change around what is a victory. Before the 20c it was considered the destruction of the enemies field army as we move into the 20c victory is and needs to be a more profound simply because of the ability of an industrialised nations ability to come back and re-arm.
Hmmm, not sure where you did your history, but the countries that probably suffered the most after WW2 were probably the UK and the Easter Block countries under the USSR. The French, because they surrendered had little destruction. The Germans and Japanese had considerable assistance to industrialise and rebuild from scratch. The US were the major winners because they had built up major industrial capacity and were able to export to defeated countries to help them rebuild. Whilst the eastern block were literally raped an pillaged by the USSR, and the UK had borrowed to defend Europe but was broke and battered and exhausted in resources.
The issue the with the U.K. post war were varied and included the fact that the US was activity trying to reduce the U.K. as a world power and the empire itself had become a busted financial model (it was effectively a market development tool for the growth of industrialisation, but with the decline of U.K. industry it became a cost). But as a nation we continued as we were ( steady decline), Germany and Japan were utterly destroyed and effectively rebuild by the west ( and Russia ) In an image that suited the victors.
in reality the U.K. also suffered because the war was partially fought over the U.K. so apart from war debt ( which was weaponised by the US) the U.K. had around half a million people killed lost 2 million homes and had around 2.5 million homeless people …..Germany lost around 6 million of it’s population around 40% of those civilians. It was almost a decimation in the true sense of the word ( around 8% of the population dead). With 3.6 million homes destroyed and 10% of the population homeless.With many towns and cities turned to rubble.
in contrast the US fought the war almost entirely in other countries and apart from military deaths had no loss of infrastructure or capacity.
But the rule stands, if a war is fought on or over your nation all you can ever get is a Pyrrhic victory, which is in reality a loss. But a nation which is fighting a war in another country can lose without Very significant ongoing effect ( the US and other western nations in Vietnam, Russia in Afghanistan, UK in North America ect). But if they win, they win big.
France WW2 Total Civilian and Military Deaths over half a million. There was also a lot of damage. Poland probably suffered the most
France surrendered and lost appx. 1/2m. Poland lost 6m. Russia 27m. Germany 5m. UK 1/2m. Not sure what your point is. UK could have sat out the war with zero loses.
your point was that France had little destruction which isn’t correct. I was just pointing out there were a large amount of destruction and over half a million deaths
You missed his point l think. Vichy made sure that France suffered little damage to infrastructure. And many French did not have the stomach for yet more war after 1914/18.
A country re-starting from scratchFrance was on its knees in 1945. The Nazis, the Allies and the French resistance had between them assured the destruction of 400,000 buildings with five times that number damaged. Industrial and agricultural production was running at just 40% of what it had been pre-war. The pitiful state of ports, train tracks, roads and bridges meant that those supplies that were available could not be easily distributed in a country where half a million hectares of land still needed to be de-mined. The French population was sick and very, very hungry: rationing would continue until 1949 and two thirds of children were suffering from rickets. One child in 10 did not survive childbirth. A summer drought and a bitterly cold winter also conspired against the French in 1945.
Source https://www.euronews.com/2015/05/05/how-world-war-ii-shaped-modern-france
Also not the article covers the how Vichy was covered up
“Euro News”…..😂
Your definition of destruction obviously differs from mine, if I had meant deaths obviously I would have said.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_France_during_World_War_II
have a read through that lot
In war, there is no winners & losers. Some just lose more than others.
If you really believe that Ukrainians are “just” losing more than Russians then I feel sorry for you.
I think what Ukraine need ASAP is the trailer mount Phlanx’s that were used in Afghan, put them around critical power nodes, they just need diesel and supply oy 20mm and will happily zap drones all day 🙂
This is Europe’s war. That is all there is to it. Russia cannot be seen to win. Russia’s people must work to regain the World’s trust over the coming decades.
Very good article by the way.
The Uk is full of promises that it is doing its best to help the Ukraine, but we are still giving India a shed lode of aid each year despite India continually helping Putin, we continue to give a shed lode of aid to Pakistan who openly back Putin and helped directly the Taliban to retake Afghanistan and now it would seem that we are also allowing ex RAF pilots to train the Chinese air force.
When we are being told that we must be prepared for cutbacks this winter I just wonder how much money we could save by re juggling the foriegn aid program and cutting the quite substantial retirement packages of these ex-pilots. A lot of this money could then be directed into the Defence budget which no doubt is being looked at for yet anouther bashing from the government.
The thinpinstrippedline is your friend to read about soft diplomacy 😉
Vicky Ford, Under-secretary FCDO March 2022.
The total amount of overseas aid to India in 2020 was a little less than £50m and in 21/22 was around £55m. Not what I would call a shedload. Furthermore Pakistan is supplying arms to Ukraine with UK help: so much for openly backing Putin! The overseas aid to Pakistan in 2020 was £180m, but I imagine it will be greater this year because of the floods.
Add the two together, divide by about 30 million households in the UK, and that’ll comes to £8 per household per year. Perhaps pictures of the 700,000 homes destroyed in Pakistan could be juxtaposed against some Homes and Gardens photos of the 2 houses on Sloane Square that could have been bought with this year’s ODA package to India. Something to look at as we luxuriate in our £8 rebates.
It is quite ironic that India has just overtaken the UK as the 4th largest economy in the world yet we the UK still have to give aid to India the same India with its own space programme the UK cannot afford its own space programme and the same India which has a far bigger armed forces than the UK. You say that this relationship is benefiting the UK well from where I am sitting the only benefit, we would appear to get is the rich Indians living in the UK laundering their ill-gotten gains through the UK markets.
Pakistan sheltered, retrained and supported the Taliban with arms and ammunition all through the Afghanistan conflict so in affect we were paying the Pakistan government to kill UK service men and women in Afghanistan.
The day Putin invaded the Ukraine the leaders of Pakistan were in the Kremlin signing a new trade agreement with Mr Putin.
There is an old adage, “Charity begins at home” so let us put our own house in order then we can look after the people who really need our help.
I just wonder how many flood victims are helped with the money sent by the UK. I bet they are outnumbered by the rich in Pakistan getting richer from the UK’s charity.
The UK has its own space programme. It has had a military Space Force since April last year and a commercial satellite programme for far longer. We’ll be first launching satellites from UK soil (Cornwall) next month, hopefully, using a horizontal launch system (off the back of a plane). Next year will also see vertical launches from Shetland, and there are aspirations to create up to half a dozen other UK launch sites.
With a lot of private investment and long after India’s state-run programme has been running with the help of the British taxpayer.
If Ukraine isn’t winning, they certainly are not losing either.
The way I see things, is the KGB/STASI trained Putin. Knows he has asked too much of the corrupt and inefficient Russian armed forces. While Ukraine being supported, financed, equipped and trained by key NATO members. Has performed amazingly well for a nation with equally as much corruption and inefficiency as Russia.
What will the old soviet thinker do in response?
The likelihood is Vlad will utilise reliable assets he knows are under FSB control. To somehow take advantage of existing phenomena. Thereby weakening the NATO/Ukraine connection. Or striking NATO nation were it hurts most, on their home territory and economies.
He knows that the Wests collective weakness is public opinion. Also internal turmoil caused by minorities including Irish Republicans, islamists, environmentalists – green nutters and union/socialist groups. Along with energy fragility and fear of disease outbreaks leading to epidemics/pandemics/mass vaccinations.
Putin has been seeding the West for decades, do you not find it co-incidental that most of the unions in the UK, France and Germany start to play up just after the West started to slap sanctions on Putin. What would go a long way in calming the situation here in the UK is if we could expose these connections by following the finance trail, but this would more than likely expose a lot of the political classes from the conservative, labour and the SNP who have all taken rather large sums of money from “Russian oligarchs” also a lot of decision makers in the C.S. and the Military have also had their hand in the pie.
If we ever did bring back hanging for the crime of treason, then I believe that there would be a long list of Military, Civil Servants and Politicians who would be seen swinging in the wind.
The “seeding” began before Putin’s time but being in the KGB, he obviously was aware of it. The KGB asset Jack Jones became head of the TUC! With education seriously targeted by communist activists.
Now, even though the Russian experiment with communism failed miserably. We are still reaping the rotten fruit of that interventionist policy. With the single aim of spreading the cancerous socialist/communist plague. For example, Jeremy “Trots” Corbyn an undeniable communist revolutionaries groupie, almost became our PM.
I’m not sure how much Putin could utilise the existing plethora of filthy commies due to many of them hating Russia for ditching the ideology. However, the Chinese Communist Party have taken over with their brand of the totalitarian evil. Therein lies a new bunch to be HUNTED down. They pose an even greater real and current threat. Look who just became chancellor. Combine that with the Beijing biden crime family activities, and the world just became a very dangerous place. Especially for the free Chinese currently stranded on Taiwan.
The mighty USA is having it’s strategic resources drained as we type, rendering the worlds only true superpower, incapable of fighting a near peer adversary. If NATO ground forces need to mobilise and enter Ukraine. Responding to the use of tactical nukes or “other” WMS’s. There is no way the free world can simultaneously help Taiwan. By design!!!
Music to my ears that.
It is not by chance that Putin decided to roll his tanks over the border this year. His stalwart supporters in Ms Murkal who single handily has hooked the European economy to Russia has done her work well and has just stepped down out of the high light That along with the Wests insistence in cutting its armed forces to a shadow of its former self (we have never been so week as we are at the moment) the UK seems to have woken up, but it will take the best part of 10 years to reverse at least some of the cuts. But with the present climate of financial instability, I very much doubt that the investment needed in the armed forces will be coming any time soon.
So even if Putin loses in Ukraine which is far from certain we will be left financially crippler and the longer this war continues the harder we will find it to recover.
Heavens, sales of tin foil must have gone through the roof.
I think modern Russia mainly works via the Alt Right. Both Trump and Brexit were Russian backed and enabled and have tragically divided the West setting up the current war.
It was Trump who blocked Military aid to Ukraine for about three years trying to blackmail them into making up evidence against Biden for him.
Brexit has created all sorts of tension in Europe and may yet make NI blow up again. Then of course making all the adults in the Tories step back in despair contributed to Boris’ awful mishandling of covid and Truss’ economic suicide pact.
Chris, you are wrong on every count but I think that’s deliberate.
May was a Cameron clone but not honest enough to admit it. Boris was a clown with only personal charisma and communication skill on his side. But he did deliver as much as he could in the situation. We should all be grateful.
BREXIT remains only partly implemented and will be the best move this soverign nation of ours has made since WWII. Certainly since the period of soviet inspired socialist encroachment.
The best leader and PM that this nation could have had for BREXIT, is currently a presenter for GB News. Not that I’m a big fan of his either.
Our future is with the Anglosphere and always has been. If you need to ask why, I will not waste my time answering.
…and undoubtedly many of the higher echelons of the more militant trade unions – uncanny how a fondness towards violent Irish Republicanism and Russian aggression always seem to go hand in hand , still if that’s where part of the funding comes from then I guess the London-based comrades and latter day Fred Kites are happy to turn a blind eye – it’s all the fucking Tories fault innit ?!…
You can’t seriously be defending the Tories? The party of mass immigration that shut down the free market for basically 2 years and stuck everyone on UBI? “Bloody rail workers, your 3 year pay freeze (real terms cut of about 15%!) caused inflation!” Laughable.
No, I’m not (I haven’t bothered to vote for 30 years) , although how the union’s argument over pay and conditions with privately owned train companies is all down to the government doesn’t exactly tally.
Party of mass immigration – (New) Labour from 1997-2010 as I recall – the party formerly known as “Conservative” has a long way to go to surpass that.
By mass immigration do you mean people moving around within the greater country we had the honour to be part of until the fascist loonies of Brexit threw it all away?
All via a dodgy referendum built on murder and terror to apply an antidemocratic ratchet to political debate here. Thanks to the political cowardice of the two conservative parties they succeeded to Britain’s loss.
Of course he could have made sure that former PM got to party at an Italian retreat; who was it again?
Ukraine and the world shall win this war- no way Russia can defeat Ukraine in Ukraine. Now on the marshal law announced yesterday, and forced relocation of Ukrainians from the Kherson region, my theory is that Putin has earmarked the region for nuclear detonation after he has satisfied himself that most of the residents have been moved out. After-all in his mind, he will be using this bomb in his country and NOT Ukraine. This is the only plausible explanation I can give as to why he has imposed marshal law in areas he does not occupy.
As I understand it, Kherson and the other 3 oblasts that are now under Russian control already had a degree of Marshal Law imposed on them by the local authorities under Ukrainian Law. Given that they now claim to be part of Russia this had to be changed to reflect Russian Law, hence the announcement.
The population of Kherson a year ago was around 260,000 what it is now is unknown but is unlikely to have shrunk to 60,000 so the city itself does not appear to be being evacuated. Their fear is that the current Ukrainian shelling of the road over the Kakhovka hydro dam, to stop Russian military traffic, will either accidentally or intentionally breach it, causing a several metre high tidal wave that would cause significant flooding and damage downstream. I read that a US civil engineering team investigated the condition of the dam in 2018 and were not impressed. The Russsians have opened all the sluices to lower the water level as much as possible but the reservoir is so large that it could take a week to reduce it to a safe level. The main canal feeding the fresh water critical to Crimea’s irrigation systems is fed from the reservoir behind the dam.
As a consequence of this risk, the Governor of Kherson is trying to get as many as possible of the people living in the low lying areas on both sides of the river near Kherson city, the 60,000 mentioned, out to safety just in case. Most of the civilians in the countryside west between the river and the front lines, although at no risk of flooding, have already left
Noted!
So your version of events is the Russians are doing everything in their power to save Kherson and it’s people, and martial law is the Ukrainians fault! Fuck me you are so on your lead barking the Putin Nazi tune that’s is gone from sad to pathetic. Anyway any thoughts on the current tactical situation on the ground and Russias ongoing recruitment efforts? You pop out of your box only occasionally now as things have gone from shit to fucking awful for your Russian Nazis, don’t you.
Of course the martial law is the Ukrainian’s fault, they imposed it but it was the Ukrainians in the now Russian areas that did it.
As you ask, yes I do. The tactical situation is quite interesting as there doesn’t seem to have been much change in possession of territory for a couple of weeks. On the NE part of the Kherson front near the Dneiper the UA tries every 2/3 days to break through but get thrown back with bad losses whilst over in the East the grinding artillery battles seem to drag on. All the time the Russian reinforcements are moving forward. There is a view that now the ground is well and truly soggy that this is just shadow boxing until sometime next month when the ground will freeze up. We may even see a strike in the west down the Polish border from Belarus.
Meanwhile the drone warfare has cranked up given big increases in availability to the Russian Army of cheap drones. I suspect that any anti drone system we have will have its manufacturer desperate to get theirs there to test.
Pulling Russia’s tail with the NS and Kersh hits proved to be a mistake as it brought on the destruction of what seem to be specific parts of Ukraine’s power network.
I’m not sure which one you work for Putin or Lavrov, they both lie but one tells the lie and the other tries to spoon feed that lie to the rest of the world.
The Russians ae clearing Kherson so that they can blow the dam just above Kherson to stop the Ukranian army following them over the river all the way to the Crimea.
Ha ha ha !! ” Pulling Russia’s tail with the NS…” . They did that, and their impotent response to the Kerch Bridge in their drone strikes against civilians is testament to how badly they are losing on the battlefield. Putin is so lost.
Those Russian reinforcements you mention, are they the frightened, untrained middle aged men that were mobilised and sent out with rusty rifles, no supplies and a few tampons? Yeah, they’ll be effective!! 🙄. Maybe you should volunteer yourself, back up your bullshit and tell us first hand about how advanced the Russian military is. You certainly seem to hate Ukrainians enough.
Nothing impotent about the military aspect of the energy reduction. Work that out for yourself.
We will see in the next few weeks if that mobilisation of reserves is as effective as you suppose or as the Russian MoD plans.
I don’t hate Ukrainians, I have one as a good friend.
“I don’t hate Ukrainians I have a good one as a friend”! FFS that’s what racist wankers say about BAME people when justifying racism. You fucking nobber.
Sad, slipping into your abusive rant mode again. Did you read that article I suggested?
Sad, never answering the questions posed or having the courage to nail your colours to the post! But I stand by the reply I gave you, your comment is typical of a racist trying to justify a racist comment! Any relevant replies to that pal? Anyway, “I don’t hate Ukrainians I have one as a good friend”! If you cannot see what you wrote then you have verified your position as a troll and a none UK citizen. Damn your getting easy to rip to shreds! Pathetic, not even a challenge.
JIMK wrote:
I cannot believe how somebody who claimed that Russia has gone out of its way to prevent Civilian causalities (when clearly with plenty of physical evidence it hasn’t) is now trying to pass off the targeting of civilian targets (as outlawed by the GC) as justifiable military targets. Do remind me again how that works?
OK, have a go at the points I make but just where did I try “to pass off the targeting of civilian targets (as outlawed by the GC) as justifiable military targets”? My comment was aimed at PC not you, I know you will have seen the analysis showing just how carefully targeted the network attacks are. These are not random strikes on civilian infrastructure. If they were surely Kiev for example would be suffering with total loss of power not just periods between 18.00 and 00.00?
From memory, during that first night of heavy attacks on Kiev and other energy targets that Ukraine’s own figures, whilst regrettable, were 14 deaths and around 80 injuries. I’d say that was, unlike say Iraq, going out of its way to avoid civilian casualties.
Hold on, Johnskie your arse, Arse, this is Johnskie, a regular occurrence when Farouk grips you! Love it!
No such time as 00:00, it’s either 23:59 or 00:01, oh dear more mistakes! Oooh and an angry reference to Iraq, wonder how long that froth would take to spew! 👜
We can all see right now how disastrous and ineffective the mobilisation is.
Highly unlikely that you have any friends, I expect that the only one you ever had died of boredom.
He is becoming more desperate and hence more amusing.
JIMK wrote:
Help me here, for somebody who has admitted he doesn’t have a clue when it comes to the art of war, basis tactics on the 7 man section level never mind the brigade and army level and weapons and their capabilities, you appear to have no problem coming across as a subject matter expert on the subjects at hand. So:
1) So regards the tactical situation across the 2 main FEBAs in country. You post a giddy snippet which leans in the direction that the Ukrainian are on the backfoot because they haven’t advanced much this past fortnight. Yet in both areas it is Moscow which is on the backfoot. In the Kherson region it is the Russian in full flight.
2) I pointed out to you months ago that armies require resupply, and that the 27 BTGs Moscow had stationed in the Kherson region as of the start of Sept would be consuming vast stocks of every from boots to rations, to rounds and to Missiles The thing is emulating Bruce lee when he stated he fights without fighting, the Ukrainians have been doing just that, by targeting the main lines of communication across the river, which basically has led to a siege
3) All of the above has resulted in the Russian management realising that their hold on the West bank around Kherson is crumbling , which is why they relocated their regional HQ across to the eastern bank a few weeks ago , and are disguising their mass relocating of troops out of harms reach (pun intended) simply to deny the Ukrainians the mass surrender of thousands of Russians troops which would place a lot of pressure on Putin.
Perhaps you might prefer it if I prefaced all my comments with “I am not and expert but this might be relevant”?
1) In Kherson they are slogging it out with the Ukrainians attempting advances with no significant advance. Is that incorrect? The Russians are defending hard with what looks to be like 3 prepared defensive lines in the NE area. Where are the Russians “in full flight in Kherson”?
2) I know you did, but if there were 27BTG there, at the time of the big Ukrainian attacks, there doesn’t look to be anything like that there for some time. So there probably isn’t the logistics need you imply. Also those there look to be VDV or Naval Infantry, both of which, as I understand it, are used to traveling light. Much or Russia’s key artillery support is now coming from the east bank which is not subject to restrictions.
3) Given UA drones and the arrival of HIMARS it was surely prudent of the RuA to move vulnerable assets back out of range?
Handed your arse again I see by Farouk, situation normal.
JIMK wrote:
I informed you months ago, that armies require resupply and the 27 BTGs Moscow has on the West bank of the Dnieper will require vast amounts of replen , the problem here is there are only 3 bridges which cross the vast river and the Ukrainians have cut them . Now each BTG comes with its own supply element which consists of 14 trucks and 6 fuel trucks, that’s 20 trucks, which comes out at 540 trucks just for the BTGs, lets not forget the support elements such as divisional artillery (which you love to wax lyrical about) who love to blatt off rounds and then there’s the civilian population who also require resupply which on looking at the black market activities of the Russians will see a lot of the above ending up getting lost for a few roubles. (On one tour in Bosnia I had 2 very pretty girls attached to my troop, I used to send them out to charm the lads in other units in which to acquire stuff we needed and they did)
The Ukrainians have cut the 3 bridges linking both banks, Moscow has to resort to army ferries, which will take around 1 hour to cross (from harbour area, loading , crossing , disembarking) they can transport at most 6 trucks at a time. At this moment in time Moscow is operating 1 ferry, which means in 24 hours they can transport 144 trucks, which is less than ¼ of the supplies their forces in the Kherson salient require to operate. We are now 2 months down the line and combined with the targeting of ammo dumps by the Ukrainians , Moscow is running out of stuff in which its forces in Kherson can find to eat, never mind fight. So realising that the writing is on the wall. Moscow is slowly but surely losing the ability to fight. Now back to that Bridge. Here is a Russian video of a clip board wielding Russian (Anybody in uniform will piss themselves with laughter regards seeing a bloke bluffing it with a clipboard) walking around the water front where he points out the extensive damage to the Antonovsky bridge. (Which if open could transfer 1000 trucks across in a couple of hours)
My point, the Ukrainians have outplayed the Russians inside the Ukraine by first getting them to relocate a huge amount of its mainline teeth arms around Kherson, allowing them to cash in by taking the Kharkiv oblast, and now having shut down the corridors to Kherson, they are forcing Moscow to leave behind lots of equipment in which to prevent the capture of thousands of Russians troops which if it happens will see the end of Putin.
JIMK wrote:
These soldiers are press ganged reservists who undertook a years military service years ago, who have been handed the bare minimum of equipment , even less refresher training and sent to fight in a war, a lot of them want nothing to do with, which explains how more Russian males have left the country to avoid call up than have landed inside the Ukraine.
When I was part of any unit tasked to go to war, we would spend weeks training before hand, we did this at the squad, troop, squadron, regiment and Brigade level. Everybody knows where they fitted in. When reservists are called up, they go through the same training (but over a longer period)
None of that is happening inside Russia and when you have ill equipped , ill-trained troops then you have a petri dish of discontent and that doesn’t bode well for Moscow and its invasion of the Ukraine which kind of explains why Moscows reinforcements arent doing that well at the coalface.
I understand what you are saying but, as I replied to PC above we will see in the next few weeks if that mobilisation of reserves as part of their bolstering of their forces is as ineffective as the general opinion of it is here or as effective as the Russian MoD plans it to be. It is too early to tell, we will probably know in the next 6 weeks at a guess.
JIMK wrote:
The one stand out feature between both sides inside the Ukraine which has allowed the Ukraine take the lead on the battlefront is the quality of the troops on the ground. At the section, troop and Squadron level by aping the Western way of thinking of delegation we saw a freedom of movement that allows those at the coalface to take the initiative , in contrast the Russian way of leadership is the exact opposite and when you have soldiers on the frontline stymied into inaction due to waiting for orders, we can see why Moscow has been doing badly on the battlefront. Here’s a little anecdote from my own past as a young lance jack.
I was tasked to lead a cleaning party around camp (the army loves cleaning parties) we stopped to have a break, a officer approached, the lads started getting up, I stopped them. Informed them they were on a break and that if a senior, officer sees soldiers getting up as they approach they presume they are slacking off. They weren’t. The officer approached, I stood the squad to attention, saluted him , and explained that the lads were having a well deserved break. He simply came back with carry on and walked off. In the Russian army, that wouldn’t have happened as the Officer/senior would simply have presumed that the soldiers were slacking off. Huge difference and as I used to tell my lads, I am only as strong as my weakest link, so it is in my interest to ensure that my lads fully trusted me in looking out for them (which included driving an injured solider over 100 miles home after getting released from hospital) when they see that, they will not only look after you, but will die doing so. It’s a concept totally alien to most civilians and which is why they have no problem subscribing to the notion never mind the quality feel the width. I’m not saying Mass can’t prevail, but in the Ukraine, we have seen how Putin has shot his bolt and now he is paying the price for not investing in troop training. lets not forget he cut conscription around 14 years ago from 2 years to 1 year,(I’ve spent more time on Naafi breaks)
Finally I can’t believe after 8 months of Russian falsehoods, you still swallow what they peddle. I mean you yourself regurgitated the line from Moscow that the Moskovo was simply returning to base to much mirth on this very blog. Do explain how that panned out.
Ive noticed of late that a lot of pro Moscow posters have started peddling the line that the Ukraine is suffering huge losses and that they should surrender, sorry settle for a peace deal (Which includes handing over 4 regions to Moscow) in which to prevent anymore suffering. what they fail to emntion is that:
1) It is Moscow striking civilain targets,
2) Doesnt say much for the thousands of people found inside mass graves inside reclaimed land.
3) Its just another snippet of Russian propganda in which to not only try and justify their illigeal invasion, but it would afford them breathing space in which to consolidate their postions which for the past few months they haven;t been allowed to grab a breath.
Mate your efforts at continuing to hand him his arse are successful every time! But he has no real clue what you/we/most on here are on about as he is a one liner, leash controlled troll/bot, and therefore pointless at trying to educate! We should leave well alone to stew in his sad nonce juice…..but, his efforts at propaganda are just that, sad efforts every single poster can see, but, I find I cannot allow such Jimmy Saville nonsense to be peddled and therefore find it amusing to rip him a new arse! You are more productive and mature and therefore you do need congratulations for making the effort!
JIMK wrote:
Ah, Putins version of the V1 soon to be followed by the v2 versions (purchase of SRBM from Iran) The adjective that is been left out is finite, you know, the very same one peddled by the pro Russia crowd about the weapons supplied by the West to the Ukraine. Moscow has run down its supply of well very much everything bar stupidity. So it has had to go cheque book in hand to:
1) Syria/Libya/Chechnya for troops
2) North Korea for Ammo
3) Iran for loitering UAVs, Drones and SRBM.
The problem there is all of the above (bar manpower) are single sources and whilst I am pretty sure that both Iran and NK can furnish Putin with lots of stuff, that stuff is going to run out seeing as it will never make up 10th of the stuff Russia started with at the start of the year. And as we saw in the war of the cities lobbing ballistic missiles at civilians only results in an increase of defiance.
On that note, the Ukrainians have been stopping around 85% of all loitering muntion attacks,So maybe not as effective as the pro Moscow crowd think they are. It has also dragged israel in, who have offered anti drone tech, simply so they get access to iranian UAVs, and how they work (for obvious reasons)
The inaccurate V1 carried a 800+kg warhead, the Russian “V1”, copy of or actual, accurate Shahed-136 has a 40kg warhead, surely hardly comparable. The Russian “V2” is probably the Iskander, already in use against Ukraine, whether they get an Iranian similar is subject to some debate. Unless you know better there is no indication that the Russians are running low on missiles, just speculation since March that that was the case when it clearly wasn’t. What has happened is that they can now use cheap and plentiful missiles rather than the expensive ones. Wouldn’t you do the same in their shoes?
1) There is no evidence of Syrian or Libian troops working for the Russians. Chechnya is part of the Russian Federation so of course they are there, in increasing numbers as they get trained up.
3) Good move, given likely cost and barter opportunity for Russian exports to Iran.
I’m sure that, like Ukraine’s many earlier claims, this one is spot on but given the amount of damage being done by 15% there must be a rather large total figure causing the strong demands for Western AD. From the type and amount of damage the increased amount of random collateral damage could be related to UA AD returning to earth or misfiring, some of the S-300 rounds are now pretty old.Officially Israel has offered nothing more than humanitarian aid and within the last week the leaders of the two main parties there have ruled out military aid, maybe their desire to not want to upset the Russians overides the Iranian aspect?
JIMK wrote:
Thats strange as 2 days ago Benny Gantz The Israeli defence minister has stated that whislt Israel won;t supply Ukr with weapons, they are willing to supply it with anti UAV systems. The thing is Israel understands only too well that the iranian weapon systems in use in the Ukraine are the very same ones that it will face if the baloon goes up in the lavant. That is why Israel has decided to help the Ukraibne, because the more access it has to Iranian weaponary, the better it will be able to counter it.
On that note I must point out one sailent snippet about the Iranian Shahed-136 loitering muntion whislt it is more accurate than the V1 (but that was 80 year old tech) it is very basic compared to western loitering muntions as the 136 targeting system is based on GPS, where the coordinates of its targets are downloaded prior to launch. But if the target have moved , it misses. All the Western loitering muntions have a man in the loop facility where a bloke watches the UAV carry out its attack, this allows the controller to divert to a secondary target if it has moved or proves unsuitable due to civillains near by. Not only that but because of the din it makes , people are forewarned of its approch allowing air defence to take them out, which currently stands at a 85% kill rate. My point, as it is so cheap, it doesnt have the caparbilities that western Loitering drones have. yes they are getting through, but that is due to the fact that they are rippled fired in sets of 5 (with the norm 20 at a time at a target) meaning Moscow is burning through them and not even iran has the means to mass produce them on the scale Moscow is going through them
JIMK wrote:
“”There is no evidence of Syrian or Libian troops working for the Russians. Chechnya is part of the Russian Federation so of course they are there, in increasing numbers as they get trained up.””
Thats strange as the very Russian media you often quote sitpulated in March that 16K Syrians and Libyans had joined the good fight. But for some reason the Russians has kept them away from the front line and instead uses them as garrison troops in the rear. (in which to stop them running away and claiming asylum) In fact the BBC knocked out one such investigation earlier on the year.
Desperation! Your like a scrawny pale ginger kid trying to pull a cheerleader with bullshit, lies and someone else’s profile pics! Sad sad coward!
Handed your arse yet again by Farouk! Very common occurrence!
JIMK wrote:
Ok, lets say Russian launches 50 Shahed-136 at the Ukraine and they all get through, that is 50, 40kg explosions
A BM21 MRLS has 40 barrels , a BTG has 6 BM21, that’s 240 rounds which come with a warhead of around 20kgs
The 50 Shaded comes in at 2000kgs
The BTGs worth of just one BM21 salvo comes in at 4800kgs
But wait the BM21 is getting replaced by the Tornado, longer ranged and sports a 300mm rocket, each missile comes with a warhead of around 60kgs or bigger
How about the numerous cruise missiles Putin has been lobbing at civilian targets for example the
KH22 has a 1000kg warhead (used to targeted shopping centres, dams)
Kh-59 has a 800kg warhead (used to target grain silos)
3M-54 Kalibr has a 500kg warhead used to target city centres, on the opening day around 30 were used.
And then there’s the Russians very own ZALA Lancet, yes its smaller than the Iranian ones, but it is a lot smarter (more along the lines of the Western drones) with a man in the loop control interface. They have used hundreds of them and yet dispite the thousands of air to surface strikes predominatley on civillains, the Ukrs are still in the game.
Hold on hold on, let me pick you up on the “Russian reinforcements” comment……really, you are saying that thousands of half trained, or untrained press ganged peasents, including 40s plus, containing a large amount of convicted criminals, with fuck all personal kit, cutting about in Sovier era ex stored wagons, as reinforcements! Oh my, you are desperate pal aren’t you.
As for the tactical situation, you are absolutely correct, since the massive and continuous successful efforts by the Ukrainians at taking back thousands of square miles of their invaded sovereign territory, little much has been done by the Nazi Russians aside from throwing a number of 80s Zanusi missiles at civvies! Oh and get a load of Kamikaze drones, from another meglamanic Nazi type country (who also have an issue with women whose authorities also like to kill them, similar to Russia), which contain a limited kinetic warhead. Is that the best you can come up with? Oh dear, oh dear, your losing your touch and your handler will be tugging that leash of yours.
Oh, and as for a strike from Belarus, more slow moving, antiquated armoured targets, operated by press ganaged peasants, for NATO weapon systems to wipe out. Come on Johnski more effort please.
” As I understand it,…..”
But what follows is an avalanche of specious bullshit, lies, fact twisting, and nazi propaganda.
While in Kherson, thousands of Ukrainian civilians face forced abduction into Russia, summary execution by Russian soldiers, and theft of property as the rapist army flees.
How proud you must be.
He is, but hasn’t the balls to nail his colours to the mast!
“But what follows is an avalanche of specious bullshit, lies, fact twisting, and nazi propaganda.”
Put up or shut up. Where is it?
All of it little man, all of it, and, while we’re on the subject, every single thing you’ve posted. Every time you’re shown up as wrong, either by other way more knowledgeable people (Farouk et al), or your previous comments that have such a contorted narrative that you are beyond parody at this stage.
How ironic and funny that you would ask ‘Put up or shut up ‘ when, every time I’ve asked you for your comments on jailed Russian anti war protesters, murdered Russian politicians, executed civilians in Russian held areas, the rapes, theft ,abduction throughout Ukraine by Russia of innocent Ukrainian citizens you slink back under your rock like the moral coward you are .
Snowfall on a midsummer’s day lasts longer than your poisoned narrative. Now run along little man, I’m sure there’s an FSB briefing you’re late for.
More likely a low flying tank turret as recently he has been rather pathetic in his troll comments!
No, you put up or shit up! Mail your colours to the mast and tell everyone where you stand on this illegal invasion of Ukraine by Nazi Russia and Putin! Alas you cannot, as you are a monitored troll account! If you were not you could say, for all to see that Putin is a bell end…..repeat please!
Mail them if you want or nail them! But I’m sure the mail from Russia is as slow, corrupt and none-existent as everything else!
Dont these nations learn by there mistakes the us had veitnam war and lost
Russia had yrs of fighting in afganistan and they lost and now again russia is making the same mistakes
Whether Ukraine survives Putin’s genocidal invasion depends on whether the West finally supplies the effective air defences and long-range missiles Zelenskyy’s been pleading for since February. We’ve provided enough weaponry for Ukrainians to engage in some protracted dying, but not for them to go on the offensive & expel the Russian forces.
I wouldn’t put it past Putin to lure the Ukrainians into Kherson by tossing them some expendable Asiatic Russians to shoot at, & then nuke the city. As long as not too many Muscovites are killed, he won’t even count the wretched Tuvans, Kalmuks, Buryatis etc as a loss. He can afford a few sheep as compensation for their families.
I’m just an ordinary member of the public with no military experience, but I have some political sense, & it’s clear that if Putin, who thinks he’s Catherine the Great in drag, is allowed to walk away with anything looking like a victory, that will be the end of peace in Europe. Put a stop to Russian aggression now, or our grand/children will regret it.
As for the Nazis some posters here appear to be concerned about, I’d point out that when some of the founders left the Azov battalion & went into politics, they secured around 1.6% of the national vote. Subsequently, Zelenskyy forbade overt politics & made the remaining Azov men part of the National Guard. Now they work for a Jewish President. And in Mariupol, they did him proud.
Even Putin, who sent fascist militias such as Ruskii Obraz, & biker gangs like the Night Wolves into the Donbas, has given up on the de-Nazification ploy: this week, he’s rescuing Ukraine from Satanists.